dani: good morning.

this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe". i'm dani burger in london. these are the stories that set your agenda. stocks and futures fall, treasury yields hit seven-month lows as soft employment and services data ignites concerns about recession. paying the piper, the swiss government canceled or cuts the bonuses of top credit suisse executives following the state-backed takeover by ubs. emmanuel macron and ursula von der leyen made xi jinping in beijing. meanwhile, house speaker mccarthy assures taiwan's president that ties with the u.s. remain strong. it's basically your friday, unless you trade u.s. treasuries or are an fx trader, a whole lot of you who have two more days to go. but for so many of us, this is the last day of the week. how much risk you want into a long weekend when we know how

much can change during the span of a normal weekend, a la a bank going under and one acquiring it. we had a american data reigniting fears of recession. what has that resulted in safe haven buying? specifically, treasuries and the dollar. 10-year yield at a new low for the year, the lowest since september, just below 3.3%. usually when we get yield compression, you get weaker dollar. that's not the case this time, the dollar strengthening amid concerns over the economy. bloomberg dollar has gains of .1%. standard chartered says this is because we are on the other side, the growth scare that results in buying dollar as a safe haven, which is why you do not have the usual yield-dollar relationship.

that is why the riskier, higher beta currencies like the aussie dollar that are tied to the commodities trade are doing poorly this morning, down .4%. commodities as a whole are struggling with the growth of scare. nymex crude is fluctuating at $80 a barrel. we had opec+ cuts. looking at the equity market again, it is the last trading day of the week for equities. all of of them moving lower. asia stocks u nderperforming.we have seen really low conviction trade in european sessions as of late. tech leading us down, down .4% after it shined for the first quarter. let's get to reporters around the world. we're going to talk about recession fears and the reaction

and impulse to buy treasuries with garfield reynolds. oliver crook is in zurich after a blockbuster week for swiss banks. john liu is in beijing to touch on global geopolitics. starting with treasuries, yields have declined further. the 10-year yield its lowest level since mid-september. that follows a gauge of service activity that suggested the u.s. economy is headed for downturn. let's bring in chief rates correspondent garfield reynolds in sydney. i would be the worst trader ever at this moment, because i would assume now is the time to be shorting treasuries because of the run-up over the banking sector fears. as it seemed like the impulse to keep buying treasuries will stick around? >> it does seem rather like it will. part of the reason is that we're moving beyond the period where

one, or a couple of data points or fed species can make a serious dent in the treasuries market. we already went through powell being extremely hawkish in his march testimony to congress. the bond market said the fed reroute will continue. banking fears hit. that turned the picture completely around. since then, there has been a steady drip of poor data, especially of frontrunning the jobs data. we had as you mentioned the services data this week. we also had the adp private payrolls report. that was a sign the job market is turning over. same for initial jobless claims. lots of moving parts in there. sort of thing that means even if you have got a shock out of the payrolls report on friday, the bond market would look at that as saying that will encourage

the fed to raise rates again. from here, we think that's a mint state. we think the u.s. economy is already in deep trouble. so if the fed becomes more hawkish from here, that's going to see especially longer-dated treasuries rally and yields coming down. you only have to look at new zealand yesterday, when the rbnz shocked hiking 50 basis points, 10-year yields crashed down creating the biggest yield inversion since 2008. today, you have growth fears and currencies falling against the u.s. dollar. australia's dollar has fallen exactly the same today as the new zealand dollar. the rba pause, the rbnz accelerated. the nuances have fallen by the wayside. the bond market is looking at the fed and its hiking cycle and saying it's over. anything you do to become more

aggressive is only going to make us more certain that the u.s. economy is going to face a more severe downturn. dani: okay, garfield, that's our chief rates correspondent in sydney. top credit suisse executives will have outstanding bonuses canceled or cut as much as 50%. that's an order from the swiss government following the takeover by ubs. a more let's get over to oliver crook in zurich. literally, we thought credit suisse could not face any bad news, but here we have the final nail in the coffin. talk me through what we know about this. >> we don't really even know if it is over yet. there is still unanswered questions. this specifically is an extension of what they did march 21, the government suspending pay under the swiss banking act,

saying if a systemically important bank touches public funds, they can mess with remuneration. today they have decided the executive board gets none of their outstanding variable remuneration from last year. managers from the level down below cut 50%, and below that 25%. this has been a major topic at the credit suisse agm, but also at ubs, the fear is this house -- the size of this bank and how much they will pay executives. this was a concern for shareholders and was a major topic at the credit suisse agm where shareholders blamed the risk-taking culture on all this compensation that has gone in there. even the chairman conceded that over the last 15 years, the balance of profits that had been paid to shareholders and executives was out of whack. bloomberg has a great stat, over

the last 12 years, credit suisse put 35 billion francs into their bonus pools, profit -- 35 million francs. dani: we still have a lot to go over when it comes to this story. in the u.s., house speaker kevin mccarthy emerge from the meeting with taiwan's president tsai in california, stressing the relationship for peace, freedom and stability in the region. neither mentioned china in their joint remarks, but beijing condemned the meeting. bloomberg's greater china executive editor john liu is beijing. perhaps they didn't mention china in those prepared remarks, but mccarthy said they can't dictate who the speaker of the house will meet with. he stated he would gladly meet with xi. and emphasized the closeness of

their ties, saying i believe our bond is stronger now than at any point in my lifetime. what is going to be the reaction from china on this? >> well, the reaction so far has been relatively muted. we had a rhetorical condemnation of the meeting, china saying it opposes any meeting with the taiwanese president by any u.s. officials. it is asking and saying that the u.s. should stick to it's one china policy. but if you compare this reaction to what we saw when nancy pelosi visited taiwan back in august, obviously a much more provocative thing to do to visit the island. we had missiles then, ships surrounding taiwan. not any of that this time. only rhetorical at this point. we have not seen any movement of the chinese military. if that's the case, this will be a fairly notable win for tsai ing-wen.

she has been able to underline american support for her administration. to do it without the ramifications that came with the policy visit back in august. a lot of work was done to get to this point. there was a meeting by jake sullivan with china's top diplomat before this meeting in california took place. the former taiwanese president visited china before this meeting with the speaker mccarthy to lay the groundwork for better ties across the taiwan strait.it looks like this will go off without as much of an explosive reaction from beijing as last time. dani: beijing has other things on his mind considering emmanuel macron and ursula von der leyen have headed there. it is always fascinating, the difference in the european approach. in the u.s., it is a uniting factor for the left and right,

but macron quote sees a major role in ukraine for china. how do we see this visit checking out? >> president macron did say because of this relationship china has with moscow, that it has the ability to push vladimir putin to hold peace talks. you try and find a political solution to that conflict. but also, macron warned that if china provided weapons to russia, that would be unacceptable from the european perspective. from the chinese perspective, this visit highlights enough about president xi to do a bit of a charm offensive, given tension with the united states and efforts to isolate china globally. president xi is looking for as much space to get china to invest, trade and have friends

on the global stage. having president macron here, they will be traveling after they meet in beijing today. it's a very rare thing. it underlines how much effort beijing is making to woo the french president closer to the chinese side. to put a wedge between the europeans and americans. dani: maybe adding awkwardness to that, we just had lithuania's foreign minister telling bloomberg china can't play a role as a peace mediator. that's bloomberg's greater china senior editor, john liu in beijing. let's get you set up for your trading day. 7:00 a.m. u.k. time, germany industrial production numbers for february due out. we get u.k. construction pmi for the month of march. 1:30 p.m. u.k. time, more insight into the u.s. labor market with initial jobless

numbers. goldman sachs out with a note saying, don't be surprised if this gets revised higher. we will get revisions for the last one because of weird seasonality covid issues. 2:00 p.m., the polish central bank governor will hold a press conference after the bank's rate decision. 3:00 p.m. u.k. time, the st. louis fed president will discuss the outlook for the u.s. economy at an event in arizona. coming up, aztec outperformed and banking shares tumbled, it was the worst quarter for active mutual funds since the end of 2020. more on that next, plus a deeper dive into the drama at credit suisse, as the government orders bonuses canceled. and the risks ubs is taking on as a result of this merger. this is bloomberg. ♪

dani: it would seem this year's market so far has been trying to deliver the most pain to the most number of investors. in the first quarter of this year, only 1 in 3 actively managed mutual funds were ahead of the wider market, according

to bank of america data. instead investors got wrong-footed aztec outperformed and banking shares tumbled. that's what we're looking at at the moment, the most popular mutual funds versus those who are least favorite, absolutely the wrong bet but at the start of this year it seemed like the right bet. let's get to our guest stephanie zwick this half-hour stephanie zwick, -- guest this half-hour, stephanie zwick at fisch asset management. have you changed at all how you are looking at this equity market? stephanie: the big topic had been big tech outperformance. that is something which is here to stay actually. we have seen big company strongly outperforming year-to-date. they have also implemented a lot of cost-cutting. this should stabilize operating margins on these companies, and

help them trade above target averages. in addition, we see monetary relief which is definitely positive for interest rate sensitive tech stocks. and we have tracking risk, because big tech companies make up 22% of s&p, so investors want to track these indices and step into these tech companies. that is a bright spot to state invested. dani: mike wilson at morgan stanley is not known for being the most optimistic, so perhaps you take this with a grain of salt. but he said gains in tech are not sustainable, it is a safe haven but tech is more pro-cyclical and bottoms coincide with the broader market bottoming in bear markets. are you saying that this time is different? stephanie: i think so yes.

we need to be aware that valuations are quite acute. if you look at year-to-date index performance, this has been heavily dominated by large caps. seven companies out of the s&p 500 have made up 90% of year-to-date's return. two thirds made up 40% which is amazing. we haven't seen this type of situation since 1978. consider that valuations are very skewed due to these large cap contributions right now. dani: in the same vein, small caps have gotten beaten down. maybe not surprising because banks are concentrated in that index. but we are starting to get reignited recession fears. can you buy small caps in this current environment if we are faring recession on the horizon? stephanie: in disinflationary

times like right now, small caps are well-positioned because they are price takers, so [indiscernible] however you need to be aware of high refinancing risk. we're carefully assessing access to capital markets on these smaller caps. what is interesting in terms of small caps, that they perform in contractionary times, but they more than double performance in recovery periods. it is too early to go to full extent right now but it is a spot we are monitoring to invest in for a recovery play. dani: he said you are monitoring credit access to smaller caps. are we seeing more tightness when it comes to credit risks? stephanie: definitely, yes. conditions have tightened substantially.

some companies we fear don't have access to the capital market if they need to refinance and that is riskier. dani: what does that mean for your outlook for recession? stephanie: we have had an outlook for mild recession. we continue to have this as a basin area. however we have growing negative escalation potential attached to it. the main catalyst for changing this position is the weaker job market in the u.s. we have seen at the beginning of the week, software job openings. on top, the yield curve is getting more inverted. the chances of a hard recession are getting increased, so we prepare for this. dani: okay, walk me through that trade, because we want to be looking beyond tech, just a names, the health cares and a cyclical -- acyclical companies.

stephanie: that's definitely a bright spot. everything which is defensive sectors. p careful about positioning in semiconductors, they face a difficult environment. we see inventory levels rising. we also see prices of nand and dram falling so we stay underweight in semiconductors. dani: another issue into that are u.s.-china relations. just moments ago we talked to john liu about the taiwanese president's visit to the u.s. at the same time, chinese growth has not been as strong as we assumed coming out of the pandemic. how has your review changed in terms of the inflationary and growth boost global economy might get from china? stephanie: the impact won't be big. i mentioned in my last

interview, china is not here to rescue the world. we are still positive on the china reopening play, but china can simply not makeup for the growth situation in the u.s. and also europe. dani: thank you so much for joining us, stephanie zwick senior portfolio manager at fisch asset management. we will hear from u.s. house speaker kevin mccarthy after his meeting with taiwan's president and get his views on u.s.-china relations next. on bloomberg. ♪

introducing the sleep number climate360 smart bed. the only smart bed in the world that actively cools, warms, and effortlessly responds to both of you. our smart sleepers get 28 minutes more restful sleep per night. proven quality sleep. only from sleep number. dani: let's get your first word news. with that is sarah hall's in dubai. >> the swiss government is set to cancel or cut outstanding bonuses of top credit suisse executives. under the plan, board members will have all outstanding

payments from 2022 script. managers levels one and two below the board will have their bonuses reduced by 50% and 25% respectively. the move affects 1000 employees. emmanuel macron says china can play a major role in ukraine. as part of a three-day visit to china, macron and the european commission president will meet president xi. france is pushing europe to take a more moderate stance towards beijing than the u.s. is demanding. san francisco police safety cashapp founder has died in the hospital after stab wounds. he was chief product officer of mobilecoin and a well-known figure in silicon valley.

global news powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. dani: part of what has happened in reaction to weaker american economic data has been a bid for safe havens. that has resulted in stronger dollar, despite yield compression. it is that other side of the dollar smile where it is but because of growth concerns. the commodity currencies are underperforming this morning. both aussie and kiwi dollar falling hi, i'm katie, i've lost 110 pounds on golo in just over a year. golo is different than other programs i had been on because i was specifically looking for something that helped with insulin resistance. i had had conversations with my physician indicating that that was probably an issue that i was facing and making it more difficult for me to sustain weight loss.

golo has been more sustainable. i can fit it into family life, i can make meals that the whole family will enjoy. it just works in everyday life as a mom.

dani: good morning, this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe". i'm dani burger in london and these are the stories that set your agenda. stocks and futures fall, and treasury yields hit seven-month lows as soft unemployment data reaganites concerns about recession. paying the piper, the swiss government canceled or cuts the bonuses of top credit suisse executives following the state-backed takeover by ubs. emmanuel macron and ursula von der leyen meet xi jinping amid efforts to better define europe's relationship with china. house speaker mccarthy assures taiwan's president that ties with the u.s. remain strong. but growth scares have come back to bite. it has resulted in buying of treasuries and the dollar. 10-year yields are at their lowest level this year, the lowest since september, following the buying we have

seen following the banking crisis. this has a different element now. it is not banking, it is just data point after data point that indicates things are turning. be at the jules figures, private employment figures, we will also get initial jobless claims today. and a revision from the prior one. goldman sachs says there are likely to be revised much higher. 10-year yields just below 3.3%, bloomberg dollars spot gains, growth concerns being we're buying the dollar. commodity currencies like the aussie dollar falling half a percent. just below $80 a barrel on the nymex crude. it had gone up because opec+ was cutting by a million barrels but growth concerns are dominating the trade. also dominating for equities, is bad news bad news again for the equity market?

tech is outperforming, nasdaq futures down .4%. our last guest at fisch asset management said she likes tech, she likes but they are cutting costs. perhaps they are well-positioned. morgan stanley not agree, saying if this is bought -- this is bought as a haven play and they are tied to different cycles. we are looking to the fed for signals. whether the market believes that are not is a different story. cleveland fed president greta mr. -- loretta mester has signaled the need for more rate hikes to fight inflation. she said market expections -- expectations of four rate cuts by next january are unlikely. >> we will have to go little bit higher from where we are. a little bit more. and then hold there for some time to make sure inflation is

on a sustainable downward path to 2%. that doesn't mean raise rates until inflation gets back to 2%, we will be calibrating to see that inflation is moving down. my own forecast as it will take some time. but i think we're going to make appreciable progress this year, and continue to make progress next year and hit 2% in 2025. >> what's your trajectory for inflation? where can we end the year? >> i am at .75 percent this year, maybe 2% in 2025. that is good progress. we have been at high inflation well over 2% for quite some time, that's why it is imperative that we continue on this path.

we will be due just -- judicious about this. we're not throwing the baby out with the bathwater. but it is crucial that we get inflation back down in a timely way. >> you talk about throwing the baby out with the bathwater. the old adage is the fed titans until something breaks. what is the balance of risks between something breaking on the growth and unemployment side, and inflation? >> tightening until something breaks is not the strategy i would like to follow. we have got to be judicious and calibrate our policy in the correct way. we have made a lot of progress in terms of when we started raising rates. we were at zero and have come along way. we are making progress to where we need to get to. my prognosis is we need to go further, but we are well on the

way. and then we hold for a while. and yes, we can recalibrate our policy if the economy evolves differently than we're anticipating. that's the nature of policymaking, take all the information in, set a policy path that is consistent with getting back to maximum employment and price stability. then if the economy evolves differently, you might have to adjust your policy path. and you need to be open to that. specially in a situation where there is high uncertainty. we were high and the -- uncertainty in the economy before the tension in the banking system. the stresses in those banks has added more uncertainty. so you've got to be willing to take in more information, look at it and reassess if need be, where policy needs to go to. dani: the cleveland fed president speaking to bloomberg's michael mckee. the most important question we

need to grapple with today, 40 looking forward to more tomorrow? -- what are you looking forward to more tomorrow? the long easter weekend or march's payroll data. that will be closely watched by both investors and the fed as the central bank navigates its path forward, and if so, tie that path to the labor market picture. joining us is michelle jamrisko in singapore. just start us off with the simple things. what are we expecting from the jobs report tomorrow? >> there is always room for surprise, even in a holiday release. the jobs report will excite bond market because they will be open for all the exciting trades. we're looking at probably some cooling, but not enough to make the fed comfortable. i was checking surveys before i came on with you.

analysts see monthly job gains slowing from the previous month, putting that into perspective, that would be the lowest since december 2020 when we had a job loss. looking at the numbers from last year, from the start to last month, the average was 401, so 2 35 is significant slowing on the job gains front. on planet, analysts see no change -- unemployment, analysts see no change. wage growth numbers look to be mixed if we're judging by analyst surveys. month on month, they should pick up, year on year should be slowing, that might reflect seasonal situations. dani: it seems like the market is gearing up for softening because of the data we have had this week that has resulted in treasury yields falling to the lowest of this year. what exactly did that data show? >> we have had a lot of jobs

data, and other data pointed towards that cooling narrative, bolstering bets that recession could happen sooner than later. jobless claims last week, and we're expecting the next report thursday morning out of washington. last week it showed a tick up. it can be wobbly, the claims data, so we have to take the fed's advice to take in the totality of the data. we have to see a few more prints. the other things u.s. economy watchers have been looking at for job openings falling to the lowest since may 2021. the quits rate ticked up. that has put pressure on wage growth predictions. we have the services figure showing cooling. i should mention adp data.

there is so much to get there, but the adp data also showed significant cooling. sector seeing job losses including manufacturing and finance. dani: that will be interesting. goldman sachs put out a note this morning warning this is the first opportunity for the statistical agency to correct. claims could jump to hunter 40,000 -- to 240,000 vs. 200,000. let's switch focus to europe. christine lagarde has not faced too much disagreement, but over the past week it seems like we are getting speakers saying perhaps they don't need to be as aggressive as madame lagarde has been saying.

is that a fair read? >> that's right, we look at the ecb speak. we talk about the fed's becoming in fast and furious although the ecb seems more so. we had four speakers since last friday calling jana randow, seeing the same tone. which is unusual. christine lagarde has had a fairly strong backing from the governing council for the decisions they have made. last month was a different story, we had the banking turmoil and everything else and she came out with a pretty hawkish message. as you remember, they hike. lagarde herself said three or four members disagreed with her. we are seeing more of a tonal from the ecb governing council in terms of finding an end to the rate hiking cycle. since friday, governing members

from france, greece, lithuania and croatia have pushed that theme. we're nearing the end of the tightening cycle. i expect we will be finished with interest rate increases soon. that is falling from the meeting -- evolving from the meeting last month. dani: even simkis, who is not known to be a dove. michelle, thank you so much. bloomberg's senior asia economy editor in singapore. enjoy your long weekend, i'm sure you will be tied to a terminal looking at those labor figures today and tomorrow. let's get our bloomberg business flash. >> hedge fund tiger global gained more than 7% in the first quarter thanks to a rally in technology shares. chase coleman's fund erased record losses from last year.

the biggest stock holdings jumped, led by meta which rose 76%. bank of america is encouraging some of its bankers to take on new roles focusing on smaller deals. a memo urged staff to apply for positions in its emerging growth and regional coverage team. the company expects smaller clients to boost investment banking fees. macau casinos have been forced to close off thousands of hotel rooms and cut back on guest services due to a labor shortage. the high price of foreign workers is a key hurdle. some hotels have less than half of rooms available. that's your bloomberg business flash. dani: sarah halls in dubai. we take a deeper dive into the drama at credit suisse. this was government ordering

that bonuses are canceled. we will look into the risk ubs is taking as well, as a result of this merger. this is bloomberg. ♪

dani: it's been a huge week for swiss banking. every week now feels like a big week for swiss banking. this time, compensation is in focus. top credit suisse executives will have outstanding bonuses canceled or cut as much as 50%. that's a direct order from the swiss government following the rescue by ubs. oliver crook has been covering the story in zurich. what exactly does this step entail? >> this is really an extension

of something they already put in place in the 21st of march where under the swiss banking act, if a systemically important bank takes government funds, they have control over remuneration. this was government has said it decided all of the outstanding variable remuneration from last year is gone. from one level down, 50% is gone, and the level below that, 25% is gone. that is about 1000 people. this was a big topic at both agms, the ubs concern being how much will sergio ermatti cost? they brought him out under a crisis situation, but also what is the expectation for pay for executives? compensation is one of the main issues at credit suisse, and all of the risk-taking. that is one thing that chairman was forced to concede, over the last decade or so, payouts to

shareholders versus executives was not at all balance. credit suisse but 35 billion francs into its bonus pools but only made 35 million in profit. dani: that shows what a messy merger is going to be. it is effectively ubs's problem, though they have this big backstop from the government. what was your sense being at their agm, as they try to sort through this merger? >> really the problem is they didn't have a lot of answers on what the form of this business is going forward. there has been huge questions about what happens to the swiss entity, the retail and commercial banks. there is execution risk that the chairman continuously highlights which exists in a couple forms. you have fusing these two cultures which are quite different. but think of all the landmines within credit suisse over the

years. it has foiled many an executive team that has tried to turn it around. we heard a note of optimism from the chairman. >> this means a new beginning and huge opportunities ahead for the combined bank, and for the swiss financial center as a whole. >> the opportunity is also very real. you have your main competitor for basically cents on the dollar. you can't look too happy about that in an agm, there will be huge consequences for credit suisse shareholders and the swiss nation. there is huge concerns but also a huge opportunity ahead for ubs. dani: thank you very much. that is oliver crook in zurich who has been there all away covering both ubs and the credit suisse agm, that had been fascinating to see unfold. talking about the risk and apologies when it comes to credit suisse's agm. we will hear from u.s. house

speaker kevin mccarthy after his meeting with taiwan's president. his views on u.s.-china relations, next. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> when we think about the three communiques, here we are at the reagan library. if you read through the six assurances, this is exactly what we should be doing. if we want to foster democracy and peace and not get into conflict, people need to sit down. china needs to understand, they can't dictate who the speaker of the house can meet with, be they foe or friend. macron is sitting down with president xi. i think that is great. >> have you been to beijing? >> i have been there three times. it's important that we meet together. one of the important things

america is founded upon, we have never spoken with one voice when it comes to china. so when i became speaker, we created a select committee. 146 democrats voted for it. democrats and republicans are here together. that would foster a stronger relationship, because china would understand where our boundaries are. they won't worry about one party saying something. our only movement when we spoke in china, 100% of members of congress voted for that resolution. >> it is the one area of bipartisanship, i'd say. >> we're getting more of it. 83% of bills have vastly been bipartisan. >> i want to ask what type of support there would be if there was an invasion? you talked about arms sales meeting together -- to get their quicker.

would you send just weapons or send american lives? >> title we make sure that never comes to fruality. if you look back at ukraine in 2015, i advocated president biden to sell javelins. in the six assurances, we said we would provide weapons to taiwan. we need to speed up the process so they can defend themselves so we don't have conflict or war. you communicate with each other. you. greater technology from science to health with them. that fosters a's safer world. we continue to advocate at the reagan library, democracy, freedom and peace and that is what taiwan has. >> when it comes ukraine, there are some in your caucus who are wavering. where were those votes be if it

came to sending that kind of support to taipei? >> in ukraine we want a path that we can win. check america today, it looks a lot like 1936, china, north korea, russia and iran like an axis of power. as an american, you want nothing comes to an element like in the past as history showed us. we would fund so ukraine can win. that would probably deter any action in iran. what we can learn from ukraine, don't wait until conflict happens. sell the weapons now, so there is no conflict. dani: u.s. house speaker kevin mccarthy telling bloomberg's annmarie hordern about the unity both houses of congress have when it comes to their approach

to china, saying it is a good thing if anything, because they will know where they clearly stand. let's look at things we will be watching out for today. 9:30 this morning, u.k. construction pmi data for march. 1:30 p.m. u.k. time, a chance to get further insight into the u.s. labor market with the latest initial jobless claims numbers. goldman sachs says the statistical agency has had the opportunity to adjust their data from seasonal and covid weirdness, so don't be surprised if this figure is 40,000 higher than consensus. 2:00 p.m., the polish central bank governor will hold a press conference after the bank froze rates yesterday. 3:00 p.m. u.k. time, james bullard discussing the outlook for the u.s. economy in arizona. if one thing will dominate the trade today, it is that economic outlook for the u.s.

is it the recession playbook you need to not only dust off, but put into your full trade now. that has resulted in a run to havens, and buying of bonds, you see in the third column of the gmm, nearly everything is gaining as yields sink lower. when it comes to fx, not the g10, but the dollar is strengthening as some of the more risky currencies, aussie and kiwi dollar fall. many equity markets will be closed tomorrow say for dubai, uae and turkey. so how much risk do you really want to take going into this long weekend? bloomberg markets is up next. ♪ and effortlessly responds to both of you. our smart sleepers get 28 minutes more restful sleep per night. proven quality sleep. only from sleep number. so, am i still on track to reach my goals?

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dani: