dani: good morning, this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe," i

am dani burger in london, manus cranny is in by them a with the stories that set your agenda. manus: stocks and futures climbed following a late rebound yesterday on wall street. bitcoin breaks $30,000 for the first time since june. china consumer and producer inflation show ongoing softness in march. bolstering the case for further monetary or fiscal stimulus. plus, president biden travels to ireland to mark the 25th anniversary of the good friday agreement. with talks with allies like rishi sunak, it could be overshadowed by the intelligence crisis. a three standard deviation move, dani burger and i back in the same place at the same time on the same show hopefully the same narrative but a different script. how are you? dani: good morning. you had me worried, i was thinking what market has broken this morning that i completely

did not get? it is not a break, it is the restoration of dani and manus again. manus: i believe there is an interloper in this relationship. more on that in a moment. these markets, they have hedges and michael hartnett from the bank of america, all galloping toward a bearish position and narrative. dani: that's true, you have right here, bank of america's hartnett, saying sell the last hike. the hedge funds, the biggest short on american equity market since november 2021. that's when the u.s. got a credit rating downgrade. is not just hikes, it's also cpi and inc. earnings this week. -- and anchor earnings this week. manus: when you dig into those notes we are overoptimistic on these rate cuts that have been firmly priced.

when you dig into the zeitgeist, the commercial real estate is the boa constrictor around the american economy and it will suffocate growth for the next two years. but you've got thees side of the trade. dani: let me show you how extreme the short looks. you can look at this on your gtv library. that is the biggest short since 2021. goldman sachs data also backs this up that hedge funds are unwinding tech longs. let me show you what the equity market is doing this warning because you can continue to see the unwinding of tech longs. this is a very concentrated market at the moment, the top 20 stocks contribute into 90% of the gains in the s&p 500. it's finally time to sell some of that down. american equity futures little changed. europe stocks, first full day of

trading since thursday, off for the easter holiday. japanese stocks getting a boost from warren buffett in an interview saying he's looking at investing more in the country. manus: i think that will depend more on where monetary policy goes. bitcoin is above $30,000. apple did a little to unseat the tech trade yesterday. bitcoin still above $30,000. dollar-yen, the big move yesterday on the continued dovish and -- dovish and is. oil has stabilized, dropped over 1% yesterday, the imf morning on the weakest growth since 1990. ed morse says the market has moved from massive oversupply to tightness. we will not have a crash but a drop in prices. we know there was hysteria at the short end of the curve, the

ide, the most since 1982. hedges shifting to a big bearish position and goldman said yields could trade higher. dani: the short treasury positioning happening just in time for friday's jobs report. we have a lot to catch up on. we have reporters from around the world standing by. the latest inflation print from china, the new boj chief comments, and the bank crisis. and of course text continued troubles. manus: let's deal with consumer inflation data from china. it dipped in march despite a pickup in economic activity, while producer activity contracted. mark cranfield is here. the cpi, what does it mean for equities and bonds?

good day. mark: i think it's an encouraging picture as my calling has been writing. you can't expect inflation in china to be picking up too much when they only reopened the economy widely in january this year. it's only been a couple of months and that doesn't give enough time. cpi typically takes a long burn before it gets really hot to keep seen in the u.s. or other parts of the world. that at least means the central bank will be on hold for quite a while. there's no reason for the pboc to be worried about inflation suddenly jumping out of its box. they can take a subdued approach to things and that gives investors more confidence they can take a longer term view. the context with some of the recent pmi data we've seen, especially the services report, everybody is punchy. the highest levels in several years. yes, maybe some people will be disappointed china's economy is not rebounding as fast as they

hoped but certainly the reopening trade is still in place and there's probably quite a way for it to go. dani: and the easing trade from china. this is my elegant segue. it is also continued easing from japan. the new governor giving his first presser. is this the same policy as kuroda and no change? mark: i don't think so. it is his first public appearance and it is unlikely he wants rock about -- rock the boat the first day out. but if you look at some of the things he said, that parts of japanese monetary policy are hard to understand. i think that is his way of saying what are we still doing with yield curve control. also yield increases in japan as well.

he looks like a man who wants to build consensus. he might have a plan of how to exit a negative rate policy but he doesn't want to rush until he has the rest of the board with him. he can do it as a boj decision, not just as a new leader decision. he knows if he is going to be giving a good direction for monetary policy and japan, it needs to be seen as a whole central bank coming together, which is what you are seeing from the u.s. and ecb, getting people all around the table at the same time. the boj has a bit of work to do, it might not happen at his first meeting in april but probably not too far in the future. he did say he is considering changes in policy over the long-term, but what is the long-term? one meeting, to meanings, three meetings? i expect it's not too far in the year and we will see something happening in play 23. dani: yeah, clarification on the timeframe. thank you.

the new york fed president has rejected the idea that aggressive rate increases accelerated financial strains highlighted by the recent banking failures. let's get back to our markets reporter. i saw some angry messages from bond traders saying of course the fed hiking aggressively made a difference. what did you take away from the speech? valerie: there were a lot of eyebrows raised. this is the quote where he said i personally don't think it is the case that the pace of rate increases was really behind the issues at the two banks in march. he instead called the issues idiosyncratic. he did go on to talk about credit conditions and he said we haven't seen any clear signs of credit conditions tightening but we still don't know what effects there will be. it hasn't shown up in hard data but it is starting to show up in soft survey data. this is out as well from the new

york fed, it came out saying the household perceived credit access is at its worst level since the survey began 10 years ago. the shared household reporting that credit is harder to obtain versus a year ago, hit 58%. manus: valerie, the data last week from fhlb issuance plunging. we saw this in the bank of america survey. we know there is movement toward cash, but is it over for u.s. banks? valerie: from the federal loan home bank, the total debt issued last week was 37 billion. compare that to over 300,000,000,003 weeks ago, it shows that perhaps the dash for cash, the move from small u.s. banks to buffer against further deposit outflows is easing for now.

there was some data on friday that people also had a lot of chat about. it was the u.s. bank lending dropped dramatically in the last data from the fed, this out on friday. i can put a positive spin on this, this maybe should be ignored because it is reflecting the silicone valley bank loans and signature loans are being moved to the fdic and not necessarily in contraction in lending from the u.s. banks. manus: certainly i think, as you say, that's one chart we have discussed and i've had a host of emails in terms of other litmus tests in regards to credit. let's see whether the momentum continues through the rest of the month. valerie with the latest on data points. switching to tech, apple had the worst drop since 2000. demand has crumbled.

alex, in the year 2000 -- first of all, i had to come to work on new year's day in 2000 because of y2k. but more interesting we had the dot-com bust. is this the canary in the coal mine, the apple mac? >> i think two things you got happening, on the one hand, broadly speaking, pc shipments as a whole are declining. you also have a very difficult comparison from a year earlier when they had just released new products. the final thing is ultimately pcs are very much discretionary spending and they have a long lifespan, you don't need to buy a new pc every two or three years. if you bought one last year or the year before, your spending power has declined, companies are cutting back on their spending.

tie those together and it is not news -- good news for mac. the chipmaker that manufactures all of these apple branded chips, they are made in taiwan. they've had a difficult quarter as well. the mac is part of it, between iphone launches, the mac can boost that a little bit. not good for them but they are nonetheless saying their market will recover in the second half of the year. manus: we've seen price cuts at tesla. this is the third time they have cut prices of tesla so far this year. is this a grandiose gesture or boosting volumes? alex: elon musk is prior to raising -- prioritizing growth. it's interesting considering the market is shifting away from

growth stocks. elon musk is discounting tesla's significantly, some of the models at a 20% discount to the original price. the intention is to get close to the 50% growth rate he was targeting last year. in the first quarter this year growth was 36%. the struggle to market is seeing is what that does to the growth margin. they are signaling a three percentage point drop in the growth margin. the concern is it might be even more than that as more price cuts come in. dani: alex, thank you. coming up, warnings from the imf , they say the five-year growth outlook is the weakest since 1990. we will discuss that next. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> despite the remarkable resilience of consumer spending in the united states and europe, despite the uplift from china's reopening, global growth would remain below 3% as we projected earlier this year. what is more concerning, it would remain around 3% for the next five years. dani: the imf with a stark warning about the outlook for the global economic growth picture. our guest joins us from royal london asset management. have you dusted off your recession playbook? [laughter] >> absolutely. we've had more than 12 months the thing about what could

happen. dani: what does that look like this time around? >> we've got to look back and know it will be dramatically different. everyone is sort of replaying the credit crisis this time around some things rhyme but some things are quite different. this isn't about residential real estate at the moment, it's about commercial real estate. it's not about wall street, it's about mainstreet. manus: good to see you. we've got hartnett and hedges this morning, michael hartnett at bank of america says commercial real estate is the boa constrictor around the u.s. economy and will suffocate growth for the next two years. does that mean the commercial real estate bond and associated risk is toxic? azhar: well, there are some differences from i think 2008 in

terms of residential mortgages and those bonds. one is the size of the market, the amount indicated, and i guess the big difference is a lot of this risk is sitting on the regional banks's balance sheets and that's something you should be focused on. it's not sitting on the big wall street banks's balance sheet in the same way. and certainly in the wider credit immunity, not as big a rest either. dani: when you're thinking about investing, a lot of folks really love corporate date -- debt right now him and it makes sense considering the yields you can get from it, especially if a default cycle looks different this time here at what point do you say this is too crowded? we've had plenty of people come on and say they like corporate debt. at what point are you worried about the crowd? azhar: from a spread perspective, people are making

that argument. spreads are tight compared to say a year before a recession in a rising default cycle. i think the big differences are when you look in the tin of credit this time around and it is much better quality and that matters. ultimately we've just had covid, it kind of cleansed credit markets and i think that's something folks are focusing on enough. overall yield matters -- levels, that's what matters in credit. we are back to where we were over 10 years ago, what is not to like? manus: i like that phrase, the credit markets have been cleansed. the corollary to that than is they've been cleansed, are they underpriced for a slowdown? i hear your message clearly, this is not 2008, that bank

debts are not as exposed to the mortgage market as of 2008. i've got that narrative, but credit markets -- but our credit markets prepared for a slowdown as the imf has warned? take me through that cleansing and underpricing. azhar: i think right now just overall valuations. we've had 12 months where yields increased significantly. therefore, valuations just kind of stopped because everyone is just assuming everything will go back in the traditional recession playbook, yields will collapse and valuations are of justified again. i'm not sure that will be the case. i think from a yield perspective, we could have high yields for a much more prolonged period but that means valuations have to come down. particularly from an equity perspective, i think equity has

to come down. some of the weaker credits, you will have more challenges. dani: we are about to get the start of an earnings season, banks start to report on friday. in prior quarters, we've thought the recession was going to start play through. when does the resiliency and? --end? azhar: probably another couple of quarters. it is an unusual pre-recession period because of the covid stimulus. we've seen that recede from the markets, whether it is from bank lending or consumer spending. as that retracts, that's when we are seeing what is left behind. i guess that's why the markets are really interesting right now. there are some this connects. -- disconnects. manus: let's see how it plays

out and unfolds. our guest from royal london asset management. later on today, we've got a former governor to the bank of japan. he will unpack the boj, the new boj's first conference. this is bloomberg. ♪

dani: welcome back to "bloomberg daybreak: europe." let's get your first word news. >> the pentagon says a recent documents leaked poses a serious risk to u.s. national security. a defense department spokesperson says the military is trying to figure out the scope and scale of the

information leaked which it described as highly classified. the documents include details of the u.s. spying on allies and an assessment of weaknesses in ukraine's military. england's health service is set to be hit a fresh four day strike by junior doctors. the staff want a 35% pay rise after years of below inflation increases. the government says the walkouts risk patient safety and have been timed to maximize disruption after the easter break. jes staley has been accused of whining via judge about his employer jp morgan. the judge said there was not -- it did not warrant a change to the trial date. global news powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am adrian wong. this is bloomberg.

manus: thank you for that roundup. crypto winter is over, it just got hot and frisky over the weekend. bitcoin above $30,000. somebody turned up the boilerplate yesterday, i went out to go to the beach and it was baking hot. a bit like this, go on the bitty. dani: you are not allowed to talk to me about the warmth in dubai when it is still winter in london. this is the thing, we did have someone comment that order books are thin and trading activity is more or less depressed so it's hard to pin any one thing to this rally, that brings in the question of how sustainable is this? if this is on very thin volumes. manus: liquidity at a 10 month low. it's ironic, safety in an alternative financial asset

relative to svb and credit suisse, but you've got other coins up 50%, and bitcoin is far outperforming even the nasdaq, up 75% relative -- there is a thing of beauty, look at that. do you think this is bollinger's or 200 day moving average? make it cool. dani: i have no idea, i feel like bollinger bands have more bands. manus: at least we won't break down where the fibonacci retracement's are. dani: don't even get into that. manus: you are never far from the fibonacci, are you? dani when people come, they say they've tried lots of diets, nothing's worked or they've lost the same 10, 20, 50 pounds over and over again. they need a real solution. i've always fought with 5-10 pounds all the time. eating all these different things and nothing's ever working. i've done the diets, all the diets.

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manus: this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe" and i am manus cranny in dubai with dani burger in london. dani: asia stock futures climb after a late rebound on wall street yesterday. it's coin breaks $30,000 for the first time since june -- it coin -- bitcoin breaks $30,000 for the first time since june. president biden travels to ireland for the first time this week celebrate the 25th anniversary of the good friday agreement. the talks could be overshadowed by a mounting intelligence crisis. manus, we were just talking about this rally in bitcoin. we were just talking to our guest from the royal asset management institute who says it is time to put in those recessionary trades. is bitcoin a recessionary trade?

it does not feel like it is given the ties to equities. manus: it is a favorable recession head, a very real trip. a quick snapshot of risks and it coin is above that $30,000 level. with the average, it is up 75%. they have come back a bit. the hedges are very short in the jobs report on friday, a nice story this morning that the hedge fund got it and they thought the fund was bearish 2022. dollar-yen at the move has been down on the pillars of yield curve control and negative rates. we will ask our next guest on that. nymex gave up 3%, recovering losses this morning as the imf talks about the path ahead for the next five years. that is not a bullish signal but it could be slightly optimistic.

dani: other markets out of japan we are keeping track of it and interview warren buffett gave to the nikkei this morning saying he is interested in buying more japanese stocks. we are looking at a rally in the nikkei up about 1.2%. european stocks, they have a jobs report today just on friday. -- to digest on friday. european stocks up performing. the s&p 500 futures little changed while tech continues to underperform. tech had been leading the way for the start of the year. has that trade run out of headroom? manus: we saw the bank of america flows show they are dumping tech in a pretty heavy case for the last few months. we have a new bank of japan governor and he says his

predecessor's policies are sticking around for now. he says the use of yield curve control and negative interest rates exist that is exactly what the economy needs at this moment in time. >> given the current situation, i do not think it is necessary to reconsider it a joint accord. there is still space to have discussions with the government again if the economy and price situation change significantly. manus: joining us now is kazuo momma, executive economist at mizuho research institute. you know a thing or two about the bank of japan. you have worked in those hallowed halls for many years. tell our audience this morning, is ueda a consensus builder before any move, or is he an isolationist individual as in kuroda?

it is about his policy rather than consensusbuilding. good morning or good afternoon. kazuo: good afternoon. the new governor is somewhere in between. he is trying to come up with his own build and trying to explain the new strategy. at the same time, he is working well with other people, so another fact from yesterday, he says he may have the view that with some assessment over the past few years or so will be necessary. at the same time, he criticized that he will move with other people on policy going forward. he has a challenge on confidence building. dani: that is one part of his playbook, consensusbuilding. what about in terms of announcing policy? do we know if he takes the

powell playbook, where he projects things to the market, or is it the kuroda market where you surprise and shock policy? kazuo: the situation is different now compared to 10 years ago, and 10 years ago we saw kuroda or somebody else require the surprise element because at the time, japan was still suffering from a long and protracted deflation. we created a break by surprising the people. but now, the situations from kuroda made things desirable are not desirable to the market. it is acquired under mr. ueda's boj. manus: what is the biggest challenge for him right now? the market is pricing in a rate cut from the u.s. by the end of

the year. do we go into the rate cutting cycle on a slow down and japan is still trapped in negative rates and ycc? is that a big risk? kazuo: i do not know if he has calculated that risk, but the assessment on japan's economy is generally what mr. ueda said yesterday, we have a good chance that equity is finally achieved year. at the same time, there is still uncertainty about whether the boj will be able to achieve the 3% target at the end, so the key for mr. ueda at the time being will need to get more credibility on whether the boj will be successful in meeting the january target. as you mentioned, there are uncertainties coming from around the world, especially in decisions about the real estate

programs. mr. ueda will pay attention to possible upsets coming from abroad. dani: so he can be patient when it comes to inflation, but when it comes to market conditions, can he continue to be patient? can he continue to ease in place when we are worried about market functioning deteriorating? kazuo: that is the real matter abound. boj officials suffered when ueda recognized some side effects from the current monetary policy, but at the same time, officials stressed a number of times that they have to restore a good balance between the easy monetary policy and the economic monetary policy.

that is exactly why ueda sticks to the current policy. in the near future, there is great opportunity that we will have a big change in the balance of that. manus: if i look at the movement in dollar-yen from 1.50 to 1.33, the trajectory of the currency has had moments of existential angst. how important is yen strength in the ueda regime at the bank of japan? kazuo: currency is always an important factor when it comes to monetary policy setting. it is special because at the start of last year, the yen was -- and at some point last year, it went up to 150. we had a 30% increase in a matter of months.

that was too much, so that is exactly why the boj's monetary policy is more counteracting the anxiety and criticism from the boj last year. now, the extent of it is much more stable, so the stability of the exchange rate will still be an important element surrounding the boj. what happened last year might happen again this year, and the boj will become under pressure to make changes in the market policies. dani: we have got later this month to see how much of that holds up, whether stability is the name of the game. thank you for joining us this morning. kazuo momma, executive economist and director at mizuho research institute. coming up, despite increasing tensions between the world's two biggest economies, a top u.s. treasury official says he does not see a decoupling between the

u.s. and china. we will discuss that next on bloomberg. ♪

manus: it is "daybreak: europe" back from easter break. let's get up to speed with the

bloomberg business flash with adrian wong. adrian: the imf says the outlook for global growth over the next five years is the weakest in more than three decades. the emergency lender is urging nations to avoid economic fragmentation and to take steps to boost productivity. the imf medium-term gdp forecast you're on your compares with 3% achieved on average over the past two decades. us really is preparing to host its first senior chinese official in six years in a sign of warming nations -- relations between the two nations. ties started deteriorating in 2017 after australia started introducing anti-surveillance laws that china believed targeted the country. and apple's personal computer shipments have fallen by over 40% in the first quarter, marking the worst drop since the year 2000. according to international data

cooperation, the pc makers slumped to 56 million units. ibc says the demand surge for pc's prompted by pandemic era remote work has evaporated. that is your bloomberg business flash. dani: thank you. adrian wong in hong kong. we have lines that apple ceo tim cook has scheduled a trip to the iphone maker's first stores in india next week. this follows reporting in december that apple was looking at shifting away from some of the chinese markets and producing more in india. manus: and this goes back to the whole principal by the u.s. and administration. we herded at the new economy forum, very much a narrative in terms of the heightened risks of geopolitical tensions between the u.s., china, and taiwan, driving the industry to be

caught between a rock and a hard place. elon musk was talking about tesla having a new factory, but we know that cook is arranging with narendra modi as well. it certainly builds on this narrative, doesn't it? dani: it does, and it is important to distinguish the american approach versus the european one. we know that macron and von der leyen were just in beijing, and airbus announced they would double the production capacity in china, so it is two different approaches. manus: and then xi had that meeting with russia. it was almost seeing the europeans and then going on his merry way, but there is a delicate balance between the amount of energy they will buy from russia, and that is the goldstar for putin to aim for for products he consulted china. dani: we did have the u.s. treasury, their top

international official saying the country is not seeking to decouple from china. that happened as relations between the two countries have been deteriorating over recent years. let's bring in bloomberg's cindy wang into the conversation. how important is it for u.s. and china to work together on some of these global issues? cindy: obviously that is very important. just as you said, that we have seen relations between the u.s. and china deteriorating sharply in recent years as the two increasingly see each other as the top strategic and economic threats. we are seeing fresh disputes rising over a series of topics including the security of taiwan, spiting allegations, the technologies security, and also the russian invasion of ukraine. at the rising tension between the u.s. and china have weighed on the economic outlook as we see the imf warm last week --

warn last week that 2% of the world's gdp is at risk due to the tensions rising between the u.s. and china, and that endangers the world's economic outlook. the imf also said a more fragmented world going forward is likely to be a poor world for all of us. the top u.s. treasury official on monday said that the world expects the u.s. and china to collaborate closely, especially to address those important global challenges whether it is about debt or climate or anything of global significance. the world's two top economies should work and talk together, so he said the u.s. is never trying to seek to decouple its economy from china, and the u.s. is in no way trying to separate the two economies entirely

because that is neither practical nor in the interest of the u.s. the bottom line is the world hopes that china and the u.s. can work together. and the official says that he will continue to make sure the u.s. continues to talk to their counterparts to continue these global important issues. manus: what are the differences -- what is different with the chinese drills this time from the last? give us your insight on that. cindy: china just ended three-day military drills around taiwan on monday, so for the past three days, we have seen china sent a large amount of warships around taiwan. on monday, for example, china sent almost 100 military aircraft to the region around taiwan, almost half of them passing through the straits and

entering the southwestern and southeastern parts of taiwan's air zones, a buffers in between international airspace and taiwan's airspace. what is different this time as we have also seen china send their shandong millet carry -- military aircraft fleet joining the drills for the first time. we have seen them landing on the military areas of shandong and showing the aircraft of china joining the military drills for the past few days. so we have learned from taiwanese government officials that this time taiwan is not the only target for china's military drills. china's drills also focused on attacking the foreign military assets in this region, especially to the west of the first island chain, so it is believed that china's drills

this time is aimed to be a response to the joint military drills of the u.s. and philippines. so china's drills also aim to show that they have gained military superiority near the coast of china. manus: thank you for the update and indeed the choreography that is important in those drills. cindy wang in taipei. a bit of news on one of the biggest pension fund providers in sweden, looking at 2.5 million swedes. they had big exposure to svb and a number of other banks in the u.s. magness billing is to step down as the ceo. they lost 2% of their capital in exposure to svb and a number of american banks at the time of implosion. dani: you have to remember this pension fund is so big and equates to about $2 billion in

retirement savings. there has been outrage among swedes, lots of social media comments that advocated -- aggravated the bets they made. alecta was the fifth biggest shareholder at svb, hence why it hurts so much. manus: everybody is queuing up to tell us why they have idiosyncratic risk. even the fed's williams says there are these risks and they are not going to get in the way of the u.s. economy at the moment. dani: coming up, we will discuss 25 years on from the good friday agreement. we will take a look at the impact of the treaty and discuss president biden's agenda when he visits the region this week. this is bloomberg. ♪ go. go green. go wind turbines. go gorgeous reliable grid. go emerson software. go science people.

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manus: it is "daybreak: europe" and u.s. president joy biden -- joe biden arrives in belfast, north island, for the 25th anniversary of the good friday agreement. he arrives with no parliament because of the stalemate installment. good morning. what can we expect the next couple of days? >> rishi sunak will meet joe biden off air force one today, then they will have a sit down tomorrow. joe biden will make a speech and head south to dublin. he is very proud of his irish roots and he is touting that in the run-up to a potential as a dental campaign, but as you say, the backdrop to these commemorations is that power-sharing has not been restored despite rishi sunak's breakthrough with the framework

on northern ireland post brexit. so joe biden will be lobbying the democratic unionist party to take up its seats at the northern assembly, and the other meeting that will be happening as you pay officials will be trying to get back transatlantic trade deal back on the agenda. -- happening is u.k. officials will be trying to get back transatlantic trade deals on the agenda. it is held as a global model for peace and reconciliation. the deal ended three decades of conflict, and the peace brought investment, and the situation is better than it was before. dani: there are certainly hopes of peace for many parts of the world. since the brexit vote, there has been talk of a united northern ireland. does that seem more likely now? >> it seems more remote, actually. even though you saw the nationalist party returned to

the largest party for local elections last year in may as it is south of the border, pulling from ipsos shows the majority of people from northern ireland would vote against the referendum and it would be slim because it is in the hands of the u.k. government. under -- the other interesting thing is the cross alliance across political parties could be the strongest since may. could there be a tweak to the good friday agreement? for now, the focus is on returning power-sharing. dani: that is bloomberg's lizzy burden in london. that is it for manus and me, back together again. this is bloomberg. ♪

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anna: