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>> good morning and welcome to daybreak australia. im haidi in sydney. >> i am annabel in hong kong. we are counting down to asia's market opens. >> good evening from bloomberg headquarters. i'm shery ahn. at the top stories, u.s. stocks and bonds traded in narrow ranges as investors digest march inflation data which slowed more than forecast. the latest fed minutes show officials scaled-back hike expectations due to financial turmoil. brazil's president lands in china as the president seeks to build momentum for talks to stop the fighting in ukraine. shery: take a look at u.s. futures coming online right now, because we had a down session in new york. u.s. futures are not doing much but this is after the brief rally at the open in the new york session. it slowed down after the inflation number moderated last month.

but we have to wait for those producer price numbers to come up on thursday to get more clarity on where cpi broader inflation numbers are headed. and we have been watching treasury yields down across the board. the two year treasury yield is slumping as much as 15 basis points and at one point you can see the 10 year yield below the 4% level. the odds are still in favor for a rate hike from the fed coming in march. food prices are under a little pressure at around $83 a barrel. still we are talking about the highest levels this year already, given what is happening in russia with production slowing down. not to mention cuts by opec-plus and we also had u.s. inventories pointing to a tightening market. that will feed into the inflation narrative that we have going across the world. annabelle: that weaker dollar is playing into the story.

investors are already positioning for when the fed will start to cut rates. under this year. they've given an interview to bloomberg television. these are the calls saying go long on gold. euro against the dollar, bitcoin and ether. we could be looking for a line in the sand around the 49,000 mark. watching ether given the upgrade is taking place. that token is higher for a fifth straight session. we are past of year to date high. mike says equities will stay at range bound, but if you look at this session and what we are looking at for the asian session, take a look at if you change on, you will see that we have sydney futures pointing toward a flat start. we saw the asx 200 closing at a five-week high in a private session. a lot of that counting down to moves from the mining stocks as well and we have seen the australian dollar, one of the stronger performers in the prior session and commodity linked

currencies across the board. kiwi stocks are weaker this morning. shery: i am here at the d.c. headquarters. given we are in full swing on imf spring discussions. and really it has been that focus on what is happening in the debt picture in developing economies and we have seen vulnerability really spreading. interesting that we have data showing that the imf is calling on the u.s. and china, that they will be adding and fueling the debt increase in the next five years. the ratio of jet to gdp declined by 2028. so a key point of discussion at the talks today, i was at the imf headquarters earlier and really the talks -- top stars of the financial world all gathered in one place. we heard china might potentially

scale back a little bit and really smooth out its sands when it comes to those debt relief negotiations. haidi: we are hearing that there are signs of a softening trip that has been a deadlock on how to treat these loans from multilateral lenders. we know sustainability when it comes to these poorer nations debt is really the crux of the discussion here and how surging inflation at a stronger dollar in that backdrop has really made their debt resurfacing potential unsustainable at unsustainable levels. you've spoken about financial superstars, the likes of the governor. world bank president david, imf managing director and janet yellen are all part of these conversations. also other emerging nations like the g20 host india, zambia which is seeking debt relief. these attendees at wednesday's meeting. that proposal would see the world bank providing low interest concession loans to

these countries that have defaulted, but that is in exchange for china dropping the demand, the multilateral development banks to glosses alongside other creditors in debt restructuring. these conversations are ongoing but a key point, given the broader economic backdrop and what we are watching in these discussions. shery: especially as we see borrowing costs rising around the world. a stronger u.s. dollar. we are focused on what is happening in the federal reserve. policy makers scanning back there expectations after a series of bank collapses rolled markets last month. for more on the latest fed minutes and cpi, let's bring in bloomberg's u.s. economy reporter, read picker. what did the data in the u.s. tell us about how sticky inflation is? >> today's data came in as expected and it showed us that inflation it remains too high, but there are hints of moderation. not enough moderation to

dissuade the fed from pursuing an interest rate hike at their may meeting. but certainly some of those categories that we have been watching. for instance, housing metrics finally showed some slowdowns economist have been working for. within service sectors, with the federal reserve is worried about is stickiness. we saw airfares rising. you saw things like car insurance rising. hotel prices up. and so there is certainly the nurse show they're still in terms of sticky inflation. haidi: what we learn from those meeting minutes then? >> the meeting minutes, looking back at what we saw in march, the federal reserve was dealing with having a string of bank collapses ahead of that meeting. we saw it come to the forefront for the policymakers as they decided what to do. so in addition to seeing fed

policymakers step back there expectations for the terminal rate, you also saw that the fed staff projection was they would be a recession by the end of this year, which is the first time we had seen that. something of note from the minutes is that there was a cross all policymakers at the meeting, everyone agreed on the 25 basis point increase, which was interesting to see. haidi: reade with the latest on fed expectations. our next guest confirms her belief that the fed will continue on a hawkish path. investment advisory services chief investment officer anna rathburn joins us. great to have you with us. when it comes to this inflation print and what it tells you, has it changed expectations from the fed? >> know. it has confirmed our thesis that

inflation remains sticky. we were expecting these numbers to decline, because over a longer time, it is going to go back to a long-term equilibrium inflation rate. but not fast enough for the markets to see the fed reacting by cutting rates starting in the summer months, which is what the market is expecting. we believe the fed is going to stick to its higher for longer margin. haidi: how does that inform your market views on how you progress? that seems to suggest that we will see more volatility. do you think the low rate plays that have gained traction recently like tech is going to continue? anna: so we think of earnings expectations, tech is the bottom half of expectations.

simply by earnings reports coming out, the market will be surprised. since the fall lows in nasdaq, by the end of march we had bounced more than 20% and some people were saying we're entering a bull market, which implies that there is momentum. certainly with rates affecting multiples as well as fundamentals, experiencing some pivoting, we may have gotten ahead of ourselves. shery: especially when we are expecting this earnings season to not be as rosy as they have been in the past, what are you watching out for? anna: we are expecting a negative earnings season. and as i said earlier, we do not think the markets may be pricing in the challenges to the full extent they might have priced in partially. but the full extent. multiples remain too high for our comfort level. the earnings reports, we are expecting to see inflation continue to be a headwind. a factor in earnings, because we

know that the prices have been rising during the first quarter. we are expecting to see patterns of frugality from consumers, especially from retailers like target and walmart. they tend to be carrying a full line for consumption and we think the frugality will stick. we're going to start out with banking earnings. that will help us to clean strength and weaknesses the economy because they reach all market economies. to be interesting to see liquidity issues with the bank. that will be an interesting conversation in earnings reports, but also looking for, are they willing to lend, what do their loss reserves look like compared to last quarter and how much collateral have they been hoarding in their balance sheet? that will tell me a clue about

what they are expecting terms of a recession. shery: do you see opportunities or bargains in that sector given how hard they have been hit? anna: large banks versus small banks, there's a huge difference. when the banking issue first happen, everything sold out and then there was some picking at things that had been sold out too much. in large banks, there may be bargains. but honestly, there is some headwind, because we have not seen nonperforming loan growth. and if their loan loss reserves are growing, that is what they are expecting. so it is a little bit too early. haidi: talk about having dry powder. what is compelling to deploy at this point? when you talk about keeping money on the sidelines, what percentage are we talking about? anna: that depends on each client situation, so i cannot

say a certain percentage is rooted, but depending on the situation, not a bad idea to have a dry pattern on the sidelines. generally speaking because we've been expecting a downturn in the economy or rather softness in the economy, which has turned into almost a recession that we are expecting, we think that cash flow and an emphasis on liquidity in general is good. if a person or institution has look who it needs in the future, in the near future you want to keep that close to your heart to make sure that is available. dividend stocks which have cash flow attached to them will be attractive at this time as well as bonds, which have become interesting in the last year. shery: investment advisory services chief investment officer. thank you for your time today. here are the first word headlines. brazilian president is visiting

china in his talks with xi jinping, they are expected to focus on trade as well as russia's invasion of ukraine. the trip comes as they embark on diplomacy after visiting moscow recently where he strengthened ties with vladimir putin while touting beijing's call for a cease-fire in ukraine. they are expected to visit a huawei site in shanghai. china has signaled it will maintain pressure on taiwan. the taiwan affairs office in beijing will not leave any room for what it calls separatist activities and military drills that serve as a stern warning. china conducted its biggest military exercises around the island in less than a year in response to the presidents meeting with u.s. house speaker kevin mccarthy in california. the south african reserve bank says it has the freedom to adjust to monetary policy without having to be in lockstep with the feds.

speaking to bloomberg in washington, the governor said central banks will react to how fed rules affect currency and inflation. south africa surprise markets when it raised its benchmark rate by 15 basis points. >> that is because their actions tighten global financial conditions and that leads to a realignment of the exchange rates, including south african. and depending what has happened, the movement in the rents would feed through. that is our reaction. we do not try to follow the fed. shery: bucharest findings operations is bracing as the biggest cyclone to hit western australia makes landfall. staffing levels of the goldmine have been reduced ahead of the

storm's arrival late thursday. tropical cyclone is expected to miss the major minds as it moves more inland. those were the first word headlines. haidi: still ahead find out what is on the agenda for president lula's visit. council of the americas joins us to talk about the ties between the countries but first france is pushing back against what he describes as an overreaction to president microns -- emmanuel's visit. we will get the latest next. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ shery: french president emmanuel macron defended his stance on u.s. and china after he called for europe to avoid being dragged into a conflict between beijing and washington sparked a backlash. let's bring in bloomberg's maria here in the d.c. studio. good to see you in person. maria: i'm happy to be here with you. shery: you were able to catch his finance minister at the imf. what did he say? maria: the interview started because emmanuel macron went to china, had a trip and on the way back gave an interview to political. that's what set this controversy

around it, where he said europe needs its own policy with taiwan, versus this idea that the timing of the comments around china, to say china not necessarily has to be a full on arrival, maneuvers were happening and it was badly seen. i asked the finance minister are you apologetic, was it a bad decision? the french president is right is what he told me. it's take a look now. >> we need the support of china and we need china, to be there. so first, we want europe to have independence. second, we remain strong with allies on the united states of america. and third, to meet the challenges of the 21st century, we need to engage china. maria: that is the french finance minister. he said emmanuel macron it meant what he said.

europe needs independent policy. the united states is one of our best friends but we do not have to follow everything that they do. they're looking at the election. if you get someone like donald trump, which is a problem for the european union, they do not want a repeat. what he did say it to peddle back the conversation is china needs to de-escalate what has been happening in the last 48 hours is not acceptable. i asked if you would go to taiwan and he said not in the agenda for the time being. haidi: is this part of a broader discussion about a need for greater foreign policy autonomy or more assertive clear foreign policy for the block? maria: yes and this is a huge conversation in brussels. the thing that we need to stress is that when the french president goes to china for three days, he speaks in the name of the french republic and no one else. this is a debate in the european union. eric countries that say he is right, we need more of our own stuff. we need our own defense when you

look to european countries, close to russia, what they say is this is not something we can agree with. the backbone of european security is nato and will continue to be neato. haidi: bloomberg's maria in washington. china is softening its debt relief stance at the imf talks in washington, offering a glimmer of progress in these stalled talks. let's bring in a north asian correspondent stephen engle in hong kong. are we seeing progress toward the deadlocked situation and what is a compromise that beijing has been asking for? stephen: yes, these are long stalled talks centered around unlocking of course much-needed development aid to poor nations. some of which you have defaulted it like zambia and others. at the world bank talks, they are gathering. david, also of course represented is in india, hosts of g20 and zambian officials to talk about this and the sticking point has been china's

insistence that a multilateral development bank need to share the haircut if you will with creditor nations to cory nations like china, the world's largest creditor nation. to these poorer nations. so sources are telling us who are privy to these talks, but are not allowed to talk about it regularly are essentially saying china is softening its stance is there terminology. basically, i think the geopolitical concerns around the world is one of the main reasons why they are doing that. here is the proposal, which they are all talking at these world bank spring meetings in washington. the world bank would provide low interest concession loans and grants to nations that have defaulted like i mentioned zambia, in exchange for china dropping a key demand that multilateral banks take losses alongside other creditors in debt restructuring. china has opposed this and this

is what china's foreign ministry spokesperson had to say about this. to solve the debt problem, all parties needed to implement the principle of joint action and fair burden. earlier today, i believe a few days ago when -- was speaking with bloomberg, she said china has been very slow to recognize that multilateral debt restructuring requires china to play by the rules that are already established. you can see the deadlock, any progress would be a move in the right direction. still officials are telling us that they caution any breakthrough is unlikely simply because china's position still despite this talk of softening of the stance, their position is fairly unclear. shery: she's north asia correspondent stephen engle joining us from hong kong with the latest when it comes to those debt talks. around china. stay tuned for more interviews

with key global financial leaders during our imf spring meeting coverage. this is bloomberg. ♪ the first time you connected your godaddy website and your store was also the first time you realized... well, we can do anything. cheesecake cookies? the chookie! manage all your sales from one place with a partner that always puts you first. (we did it) start today at godaddy.com

♪ shery: it is a quick check of the business flash headlines. warren buffett called byd extraordinary. chip manufacturer tsmc, a fabulous enterprise be it he made the remark through an interview with cnbc despite selling shares of both firms. the billionaire investor said the decision to reduce stake in tsmc resulted from concerns over geopolitical tensions between china and taiwan. sales soared, chinese choppers bounced back from the world's strictest lockdown. organic sales of the group's biggest unit which sells fashion and other goods rose 18% in the

first quarter. almost twice the gain that analysts were expecting from europe's most valuable company. jp morgan has told its managing directors they must work from the office during weekdays, ending a hybrid workplace practice that began during the pandemic. the bank says leaders play a role in reinforcing the company's culture and must be accessible for feedback and impromptu meetings. coming up, brazil's president arrived in china. xi jinping in berks in a round of diplomacy to push for a cease-fire in ukraine. we discuss geopolitical ramifications with eric of the council of the americas. this is bloomberg. ♪ i screwed up. mhm. i got us t-mobile home internet. now cell phone users have priority over us. and your marriage survived that? you can almost feel the drag when people walk by with their phones. oh i can't hear you... you're froze-- ladies, please! you put it on airplane mode when you pass our house. i was trying to work.

we're workin' it too. yeah! work it girl! woo! i want to hear you say it out loud. well, i could switch us to xfinity. those smiles. that's why i do what i do. that and the paycheck.

>> you are watching daybreak

australia. a key measure of u.s. inflation shows moderation not likely enough to dissuade the fed from raising rates next month. the index grew 0.40% following a 0.50% gain in line with estimates. it offers glimpses of dis-inflation ahead while highlighting the sticky nature of inflation. policymakers scale back for rate hikes this year after a series of bank collapses last month. fed officials cited the banking industry as resilient but worried about small businesses from being cut off from credit. the staff -- chinese regulators stepping up efforts to address bond underwriting problems, asking underwriters review problematic practices in the primary corporate debt market, including

the price gaps that exist between primary/secondary -- bloomberg has learned that china is softening its stance on easing the debt burden of coordinations -- debt restructurings. multiple countries are taking part in discussions in washington, beijing's approach offers hope in terms of unblocking much-needed aid. trade disputes and human rights have been on the agenda for australian and chinese officials during high-level talks. the visit by the vice minister of foreign affairs is the first by a senior chinese government official in six years. his counterpart said it was in the interest of both countries to continue on the path of stabilizing thereby letter relationship. those are your first word headlines. >> brazil's president lula da

silva has arrived in china for talks with xi jinping expected to focus on trade and russia's invasion of ukraine. our next guest says the trips early in the presidency showed the importance of ties between the two countries. eric fornes worth joins us now. good to see you. >> thanks. good to see you. >> tell us about the relationship. this seems different when it comes to his trip to china as opposed to what he did in the u.s. in february. >> it is an important relationship that goes back a while. it is not new. china is a major investor in brazil, and this predates president lula. so, the trip will be an opportunity to restore some luster of the bilateral relationship. it does contrast with what lula did in washington in february,

quik-trip less than one day, and a good meeting between the two presidents, but there were not a lot of tangible results. what we anticipate out of the trip to china will be a lot of agreements in terms of agricultural sales, mining, agreements on trade/investment, so it will contrast with the recent visit to the u.s. >> he is also headed to -- that will not sit well with washington. >> washington is on it's on its own charm offensive. washington has made the case to brazil in terms of what they believe the threat is from huawei. you heads senior u.s. officials make ticket -- had senior u.s. officials make that case. >> how significant is the issue

of the yuan trade. it's still a small component and not a threat to dollar trade, but is it symbolically significant? >> i think it is. the way you put it is right. it is off a small base, but does exist. it is china's ambition to increase the trade. if they can get brazil to agreed affirmatively to increase trade and the use of the yuan, that will be a positive result from beijing's perspective but we have to keep it in perspective. i don't think rizzo will ditch the dollar anytime soon. the symbolism does matter. that is because china clearly is trying to establish itself globally in terms of the global governance issues not just in terms of politically but financially, economically as you have talked about many times and if they can get brazil to move forward in this way, brazil tends to be a bit of a bellwether for the rest of latin

america and other emerging markets because it is so huge by a factor of, the largest economy in south america, so if you get brazil moving in that direction because it signaled to other countries this might be a direction they want to explore. on that point of dependence on china, we have been watching this key discussion point of how debt, servicing how for these poor nations play out, the hope of breaking the deadlock with beijing. as beijing's reputation as a lender been tarnished over the last few years? it is an interesting question. latin america is different from other emerging markets. china was later to the game in latin america than africa and parts of southeast asia and the relationship is not the same as it is elsewhere. china got ahead of itself in some ways in latin america and made some big mistakes and have learned and continue to learn and try to be more of what they

would consider a responsible party and partner and latin america but the point you are raising i think is important that is this, coming out of the pandemic the debt load for latin america is high and the service is getting more complicated because of interest rates and inflation the region continues to grapple with and here is a region that you know the growth projections for 2023 continue to be revised downward, so they will need some new lending from somewhere, and if the united states, imf, or other sources of capital don't see a need to fill that vacuum, then you can anticipate that china will. i don't know what the reputation would be in terms of you know chinese lending at this point that having said that, if they are the only game in town, they are the only game in town. >> how important is latin america? tell us about the significant of the region because we have the taiwanese president visit and try to shore up its relationship

in central america as well, so when it comes to china and washington vying for this region, how does that play out? >> most of the countries that recognize taiwan are based in the western hemisphere, central america into recently in countries like honduras, el salvador, dominican republic shift recognition to china. paraguay recognizes taiwan, but they're going through presidential election, but you don't know. they beat they will ship their perspective as well. so from that perspective the western hemisphere has been an important location for this type of consideration, but there are not that many countries left in the western hemisphere that continue to recognize taiwan was that that is an issue that will have to move forward in a different direction. >> thank you. stay tuned for more interviews with key global financial leaders during our imf spring meetings coverage. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> the market was pricing in before the report 3% on fed funds by the end of next year. if the economy is heading into a slow down, 3% is optimistic.

>> we are moving through this period into a new period, a pause/reflection from the fed whether they are hiking in may or not. >> if we have a soft landing in the economy, i concede the inflation rate stuck at 3% to 3.5%. what does the fed do at that point? >> if there is any negative sign on the economy between now and may 3, i think the fed is done. >> those were guests on bloomberg tv reacting to the latest inflation print. let's bring in annabelle. any other reactions? >> we had a note from ing saying the numbers on the u.s. inflation data will give the fed justification to hike again in may, but when you have higher borrowing costs and reduce credit availability, that brings

challenges. they're looking at different factors. first, u.s. housing prices. they slow down will feed into the inflation basket. you can add to that what we are seeing in new and used vehicle prices, heavy weightings as well, so broadly ing expects inflation to come down. headwinds are adding up. yes, 25 basis points in may, but following up, as much as 100 basis points of cut by the end of the year because ing says the risks of a hard landing are adding up. >> goldman sachs is less pessimistic? >> yes, one of the outliers. before the banking stresses, what they call the svb we can, recession probability was 25%,

now moving up to 35%, but well off the 60% chance seen in the guild curve. what they see the feds going from here, whether they think rates significantly/sufficiently restrictive, they have not change the rate hike for kospi or they see one further high, but similar to ing no more chance of a rate hike in june, and that is because we are seeing some softness in the u.s. economy. >> australia has a job growth likely slowed in march while unappointed grows according to new analysis by bloomberg economics. we heard how job gains factored into the decision to pause rate hikes ahead of job data released today. let's look at this broader picture from our economics reporter out of millburn. how critical is the jobs report today when it comes to the rba path ahead? >> good morning.

today's report is significant as a piece of the rba puzzle on how the economy is tracking after a 3.5% worth of interest rate hike since may. they are looking at four reports, inflation, jobs, pending, business surveys. business surveys and consumer sentiment reports showed our businesses are resilient and consumer sentiment rose. if today's data is pointing to continued slow down and jobs growth -- and jobs growth we have seen in the past few months, it will signal and support the rba's decision to pause this month. >> and yet, the expectation is for employment to pick up from here, but given the resilience of the broader economy you talk about, is this not an issue?

>> that is right. the unemployment rate is near a 50-year low, the tightest job market since the 1970's, so if it goes up from 2.5% to 3.6% or 3.7%, it will be a welcome outcome. the rba has not said so and so many words but it does want the men to cool, inflation to cool -- demand to cool, inflation to cool. they just don't want a situation where unemployment is more than 5%, because that is when you see long-term jobs cutting and it can signal a recession, so they want to preserve the job veins, but the pick up and unemployment will definitely do that. >> the chief economist for the cba says she sees the potential for a cutting cycle as a result of deterioration in jobs and inflation coming down so what is

the expectation when it comes to the cycle? has it ended? will we see the resumption of hikes again? >> look, we heard from the deputy governor of the reserve bank of australia yesterday, and she said historically, we have seen the rba pause in its tightening or easing cycles, so what she was suggesting is that it is just a pause. they will look at data and see how things are panning out in the economy and make the cold whether they want to hike or not. they have a tightening bias. they are worried about inflation well above the 2% to 3% target around 7%, which is why they have retained the tightening bias, which is why there would likely be one more rate hike if economist are to be believed him and that is what our survey is pointing to. markets think the rba is done,

which could happen as we are see inflation globally coming off, if that translates into australia as well and unemployment rises in consumer spending eases and all that comes together, then the rba will end its tightening cycle, but i don't think they are in a position to say get in so many words that they are done, so yes, it is a pause. they can tighten again, or it is a pause, and they can start cutting again. we will have to see. >> be sure to turn into bloomberg radio to hear from the big newsmakers at the date and get analysis from our daybreak team broad costing live from our studio in hong kong. you can listen on the mobile app bloomberg plus or on bloomberg.com. much more ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪

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billions of dollars of debt from the deal of the takeover. southbank has moved to sell its remaining stake in alibaba, it was reported it had sold $7 billion worth of alibaba shares this year, cutting its stake to 3.8%. southbank said this reflected the ship to address a more uncertain business environment. bloomberg has learned that rupert murdoch may testify in the trial of dominion voting systems's $1.6 billion lawsuit as soon as monday with opening arguments set to start next week in delaware. murdoch will be the second witness called. dominion is suing fox over claims the voting machines were rigged during the 2020 elections. a partnership to test low carbon fuels in gasoline engines offering a way for drivers to reduce emissions without upgrading to an electric vehicle

, with fuel blends being offered from exxon, toyota. exxon said trial results showed it could one day cut greenhouse gas emissions by as much as 75%. >> take a look at how crypto currencies are trading. we are seeing pressure on bitcoin. this slumping below that $30,000 level, very close to that level. are talking about this rally we have had in recent days, climbing to the highest in june on tuesday. they made a comeback from last year's doldrums but with bitcoin almost doubling to break about $30,000 this week. ether gaining ground. solana under pressure down in the asian trading session. galaxy digital founder says the crypto community has been, galvanized by the banking crisis in looming u.s. credit crunch. he says that he sees bitcoin

hitting $40,000 despite u.s. government pressure. >> the government has gone on for jihad against crypto, pressuring the banks not to lend to crypto companies, a flurry of subpoenas and wells notices, and despite that, crypto prices are higher, and that gives me great optimism and confidence that the crypto community, which was generally -- originally formed outside mainstream finance as a reaction to a banking crisis in 2008 has been, galvanized by silicon valley bank, by the actions of our government, by the reality that we have too much adept in the u.s. and abroad -- debt in the u.s. and abroad in this debt or g has a price to pay them and you're seeing that -- orgy has a

price to pay, and you're seeing that now. so now we're going to have a credit crisis in the u.s., and the economy will slow and slow dramatically in the market is telling you that, and that gives a great macro backdrop to bitcoin. >> we are days away from bangs reporting earnings, a day after the treasury secrete downplayed credit worries, when you look at the issue and how significant is it and what are the ripple effects for risk assets? >> it is real. regional banks grew credit growth between 10% to 15%, where money center banks were closer to 2% to 3% and regional banks need to raise capital and are under stress. one way is you stop lending him so it would not surprise me to see regional bank lending shrink to 3% to 5% a year, still

growth, but a big delta, shift, that could be 2% of gdp alone, also the normal banks, right. see what chase manhattan is paying you on your deposit account or checking account, it is literally 10 basis points, so the consumer woke up and said this is crazy. i can put my money in a money market fund, a time deposit different than my savings account, and so the consumer kind of had a quick education wake-up call, and i think you will see a consistent shift away from lending money at stupid rates. kind of shame on the bangs for you know, paying so little in arbitrage and the fed and not saying anything to the consumer. >> that was the founder and ceo of galaxy digital. let's look at markets reassessing fed expectations after the cpi print gave markets a pause when it comes to fed

expectations, seeming to be leaning towards a hike, even seemingly defined their own recessionary outlook. asian stocks flat. sidney futures to the downside. kiwi stocks down 0.1 0%. we expect further declines in cash trading in sydney, korea, and in japan as well. it is a choppy session in the u.s. overnight with concerns beginning to really big but even moderating inflation will not keep the fed from raising rates again. we are seeing features looking unchanged the negative. the aussie dollar holding. just under $.67, some strength coming through from the miners , that geopolitical story, perhaps some improvement in the china-australia relationship with these talks out this week between the highest chinese official to visit australia and some time i'm adding to that hope. >> take a look at how u.s.

futures are trading at the moment with downside pressure after u.s. stocks felt in today's session. you talk about the moderating cpi print, but it seems that is still not enough at the fed to stop hiking rates, so we continue to see the implications for the broader markets with treasury yields down in the dollar also falling against a basket of currencies. stay tuned for more conversations this week and here at the imf spring meetings in washington, d.c. these conversations with central bankers around the world, coming up. daybreak asia is next. this is bloomberg. ♪

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