tv Bloomberg Daybreak Australia Bloomberg April 13, 2023 6:00pm-7:00pm EDT
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welcome to "daybreak: australia." >> we are counting down to asia's major market opens. >> good evening from washington dc. the imf says china and india it will drive half of the world's growth this year but warns asia needs to make contingency plans for financial stress. >> we have some big interviews from the meetings in washington dc, the bank of korea governor, the chill a central bank governor and the new zealand finance minister. >> western australia hit by the strongest cyclone in 10 years with the storm closing a key export port. look at u.s. futures. downside pressure at your stocks gained ground in the new york session. we had eco-data and there was
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that softer ppi number and jobless claims rising for the first time in three weeks, basically the message being perhaps inflation is not surprising to the upside at least in the job market seems stable. we are looking at the bank indexed that has lost more than 20% since march and we have the earnings season on friday with jp morgan and others kicking off business results. treasury yields rose in the session today, the 10 year trading at that level. we are reeling from the minutes of the fed march meeting. policymakers scaled back expectations for rate hikes this year and minutes from the meeting. $82 a barrel for brent crude. it was holding around up five-month high. we see shrinking inventory and surging chinese imports. >> yeah, the dollar a little softer.
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the flipside is the g10 space, some of the biggest moves following their release of the ppi, the euro rising to the highest level in a year and the pound close to its year-to-date high, and those gains in the currency space, the aussie, kiwi, norwegian krone among those. investors really thinking jerome powell will be forced to cut rates by the end of the year and they are celebrating that i'm a which is playing out in the equities picture. take a look at futures, australia, also japan, new zealand to the downside a little bit, but watching china because look at the golden dragon index, at rose in the session overnight . a lot of analysts saying the losses we sold this week in tencent, alibaba with those shareholder stake sales are
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likely to be recovered because analysts say the fundamentals of these companies remain intact, but there is always the question would we see a crackdown from beijing. >> you need to be involved in policy and regulatory action in china, right, and it seems there are anchor investors in china who have lost their patients. president xi jinping went on this charm offensive with high ranking officials promising the economy will boom again with the reopen, wanting to portray the country as a trustworthy business partner, but we are seeing this exodus begin with two key investors that have been long time china bulls, were talking about softbank exiting alibaba and a $4 billion of
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stock in tencent, potentially flagging and eminent sale, that this is suggesting a major exodus by investors out of china tech. does it mean the charm offensive fell short in terms of trying to restore the confidence? >> and yet when it comes to the broader economy, there is optimism about where china is headed, right? not only china, but asia, including india, the imf saying china and india will drive half of global growth this year, forecasting growth in the region will come in at 4.6% this year comes of the region as a whole is contribute over 70% of global growth this year, and that shows you the growing heft of asia as a contributor to the world economy. >> so many uncertainties.
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it feels like that when it comes to certainly the guests we speak to, we are getting more certainty as to what the path and the momentum of the recovery is. there are good green shoots. we had the numbers earlier in the week suggesting at the high-end at that the chinese consumer is back in bristol watching for developments out of the property sector which will be the next big catalyst in terms of whether you see a whole so recovery across consumer sentiment. >> right, let's get to the first word headlines. were following all the stories we mentioned, including the fbi arresting a 21-year-old there national guardsmen for the leak of classified documents which have details on the war in ukraine. the attorney general merrick garland says the men will be charged with the unauthorized removal, retention, and
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transmission of defense information. the new york times reported he was the leader of a gaming chap group where the documents first appeared. the strongest cyclone to hit western australia in a decade has made landfall and is having a major impact on the states commodity producers. the category four storm has forced the closure of a key iron ore export facility for fortescue metals mobile occult mine is getting back operation and staffing levels as the storm passes through. meanwhile, the cyclone that wreaked havoc across new zealand two months ago could cause the country $6 billion in disaster relief. finance minister says he wants to minimize any additional borrowing to fund the cleanup following cyclone gabrielle he would deliver his budget next month as new zealanders struggled with high inflation. >> clearly there are different conversations going around, but climate change, also
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geopolitical issues, so for me, it remains the biggest risk to new zealand. it is important that we diversify our economy and we are selling more goods to different places, that we develop a services sector, but ultimately this international environment will dictate what happens for new zealand so that is my number one risk. >> the central bank president for chile in an interview on bloomberg tv earlier with me dismisses early rate cuts, the comments coming even with the recognition that the highest borrowing cost into decades were set to slow inflation. chile was among the first economies to tighten as the pandemic went down. >> we are passed a period when the markets were extraordinarily bullish. they were hoping to come out of this global inflation process without recession or only a
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moderate recession. the markets were then experiencing this optimistic atmosphere, and suddenly these events in the american banking system were quickly contained, but generate a disruption in the environment. >> those are your first word headlines. haidi: bloomberg intelligence sees banks avoiding the -- in the wake of the credit suisse shock, that as u.s. lenders kickoff earnings on friday. that's bring in our finance editor. the 1, 2, 3 things were looking out for our deposits, deposits, deposits. >> that is the key thing. this issue is so much of an uncertainty about how it is priced into the market. we are watching the unicredit, whether they exercise that in june, that is a pretty big, will be a big event and we want to watch that closely.
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in japan, sumitomo mitsui continue with their marketing for their bonds, so banks are wanting to go ahead with their plans prior to disruptions a few weeks ago, but whether it gets priced, april 19, that one, another key date to watch out for. then you start to get a sense of how investors are pricing these and what is the future looking like for this market, how or whether regulators would be clamping down, quiet words into the ears of bank officials to say to try to keep things as normal as you can in this market. shery: what are we expecting to see in terms of sort of what we can gauge from the broader economy? adam: well, of course, the big thing remains the extent to which the banking ruptures and
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issues with deposits which largely has been caused by the huge increase in rates over a short space of time with a lot of fixed income entrance meant -- instruments having sold out significantly, so how'd that is influencing expectations not just for traction and credit growth, but how that feeds into consumer spending, the broader economy, and there are a lot of indications and a lot of what we have heard from senior bank ceos in recent weeks is the consumer is still there and there are a lot of indications to suggest a deep recession is not imminent, but of course we had the fed the other day saying yeah, may be the forecast for a shallow recession is baked in at this point, so that is what we will be looking for, any indications that what is happening on the balance sheet of banks is feeding through to a more problematic outcome for the economy than people have been
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expecting when they started this year. haidi: could we see a benefit when it comes to the big banks, seen as the safest custodians? they would have benefited from those deposits. adam: they may have, and that is an issue, isn't it? when a lot of these banks were standing behind the lenders when they were having troubles and putting up these extra deposits and having discussions with janet yellen and senior treasury and officials they were going to stand behind what is going on, and have they in some way benefited from that, or have they in essence, spread the risk more broadly across the banking sector and stoke up further problems down the line? there will have been clearly some beneficiaries out of that and that will be one thing to watch for. haidi: adam haigh looking ahead to the big u.s. bank earnings on friday. still ahead, the bank of korea's says it's war on inflation is not over yet.
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>> we still have tight labor markets, consumption spending is still holding up, but that being said, the balance of risks is squarely to the downside. shery: after a dramatic drop in march, our next guest says u.s. producer prices are near expectations and trending in the right direction. she joins us now from dallas. how helpful is this to the markets? >> yeah, good ppi numbers are positive for the markets and we sought the markets respond positively, especially in the growth area. when we look at what has been, you know, what has been keeping these ppi numbers more persistent, we are seeing that
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ease now, and that is good news for the markets. >> what were you able to gauge from the fomc minutes yesterday and the broader market direction and how they have received the messages coming from fed officials? >> well, what is interesting is the fed, this was the first time they mentioned seeing a recession. before this time, they had not mentioned that. they had been avoiding the r word. now they put out they are expecting it this year. it has to be coming from the consumer when we look at where this is coming from, and yet the consumer has been strong. the fed must be expecting the consumer to deteriorate very quickly in the next few months. haidi: how are you positioning your portfolio? >> we have been repositioning our portfolio, taking off some
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beta, taking some equity exposure of the table, especially since we have seen a rally since the beginning of the year, and that is what we have done on the equity side. on the fixed income side, we are going longer in duration, so taking beta above one, but below one on equity being defensive with the expectation of a recession. haidi: oil, gas, energy, one area where your funding ability to hedge in the case of what you say is a potential credit event? >> right. what we really like, i would say, is looking at noncyclical areas. with energy being more cyclical, not as much cyclicals, health care, large pharma, the lifesciences come in those areas , as we see inflation coming down and yet, the slowing of the
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economy still, and with that specifically looking for high dividend payers that can pay people more quickly, that we think quality is going to be the name of the game this year. shery: we are kicking off earnings season in the u.s. friday. we've seen the bank index move more than 20% in march. any bargains? >> yeah, i think certainly looking at the regional banks to this point i would say we have been staying away from because of the concern still in the regional bank areas, and focusing more on larger banks, and in the financials looking at asset management versus the regional banks, so while there could be many bargains, we are still waiting in that area of the market and looking more at the large asset management firms as the other way to play that.
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haidi: south korea has been battling strong inflation still at a roundup of the target rate of the korean central bank. still, the governor expects the country's inflation rate to slow down to around 3% by the end of the year. in an exclusive interview with bloomberg tv, he gave us his outlook for rates. >> we are expecting the
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inflation rate will go down close to 3% near the end of the year and we want to be assured whether our expectation is correct, so as long as we ensured that our projection is on track, then we will think about when we will change our stance, but it is still too premature to be certain. >> you said premature several times before, do you think markets are finally getting the message? >> no, but it is not only our problem. in the u.s., canada, australia will also pause interest rate. the same thing happened in korea. our investors and market participants think our interest rate will pick up within a year, but i gave a warning that still the expectations, we think the committee members think the expectations are ahead of our expectations. >> is that also because you are
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perhaps worried a little bit about the week is that the korean won, now the worst performer in asia? >> i don't have a big concern on the level of the exchanges, but we are worried more what would be the future path of the oil prices given the opelika plus decided to cut production -- opec-plus decided to cut production and whether it will increase the oil price down the road or not, and we also have to be sure what will be the policy of the united states after this turmoil is stabilized, and how soon and how much they will raise interest rates, so overall, these uncertainties come it is hard to focus on what you would do. >> but even with the shock announcement from opec-plus that they will reduce production, we have not necessarily seen that spike in oil prices, not now,
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and it seems china's reopening has not brought that inflationary wave we were expecting, so why are you so guarded against a potential spike in prices? >> you are right. there are two views. the increase in oil price, the global economy because of this turmoil, maybe slow down make make the oil price have a ceiling, so this uncertainty, so our concern is you know once the inflation, if the inflation path is not going down, we have to recalibrate our policies, so i want to give the message to ensure that the path will go down as the market is expecting maybe, but maybe not, so i want to give a warning that we have to see more data. >> it's like you're trying to get ammunition in order to have to fight potential inflation in the future.
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at 3.5%, is that enough? >> we are in a restrictive area, and also we have raised a great 300 bps, so it's time to assess the impact comes of that is one reason why we paused, but on the other hand, i do not want to give a message that this level is restrictive enough automatically to reduce inflation, because there are a lot of other things we have to consider. shery: our exclusive interview with the bank of korea governor. haidi: a quick check of the latest business flash headlines this hour. western digital shells file four point 5% following a report that hackers are seeking ransom after stealing 10 terabytes of data. hackers were asked for at least eight figures in exchange for not publishing the data, which is said to include customer information.
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the digital storage solutions provided disclose the breach but did not elaborate on the circumstances. hsbc is said to be planning to recruit 30 bankers to service india's ultrarich, seeking to fill the roles internally from staff within the country and higher wealth managers from rivals and independent firms. hsbc is looking to launch its onshore private banking service as soon as june. a delay and start dates for recent hires as accenture looks to recalibrate its workforce. a source told bloomberg the firm is offering signing bonuses to some people who start dates have been pushed back. the professional overseas giant said it would cut 19,000 jobs over the next 18 months. the forecasts for sales lagged estimates for infosys, underscoring how clients are tightening budgets to whether an economic slowdown, i.t. budgets
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that is. india's second software services firm expects revenue growth of 4% to 7% this year, lower than expectations of 10%. the u.s. listed shares fell over 9% after the outlook and a downgrade of the stock. , western australia hit by the strongest cycling in a decade. we look at the consequences of the cyclone on the western state. this is bloomberg. ♪
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zealand, the pmi falling under the 50 level that marks contraction from expansion. 48.1, falling from 52. also, seeing that 52 number for february revised downward to 51.7, but that is showing significant weakness given the february reading was the first time we saw an expansion in the manufacturing pmi for new zealand in about four months. perhaps it was too early to say there was a sense of stability given that forcing just over 48 and that manufacturing pmi, this as the rbnz pushed ahead with tightening, even as the economy appears to be pushing towards recession and as we see other central banks pausing or thinking about pausing. shery: let's stay with new zealand, because the finance
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ministers saying the rebuilding after the devastating cyclone in february will be one of the biggest challenges facing the country this year. kathleen hays spoke with him today at the imf and world bank spring meetings. how much does he think this will cost? kathleen: billions of dollars. this comes when new zealand's economy contracted in the fourth quarter by 0.6%. people think itract again. he has been beating around the bush, multi-billions, so i pushed harder and he finally put a price tag on something that is one of the biggest things that new zealand has done in decades in terms of recovering from major damage. let's listen to what he said. >> we are getting more information every day. this is the biggest natural disaster in new zealand this century. the costs are somewhere just underwear the canterbury
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earthquakes were, which were a big impact for us, but it will be multibillion dollars, but it is a long-term program. talk cap -- we are talking about cost of rebuild road and rebuild networks, so these costs were stretch over a number of years but it is a multibillion-dollar though. kathleen: that could be $3 billion are $20 billion. do you have any sense of the range? >> somewhere around $9 billion to $10 billion, but a large part of that is infrastructure rebuild, which we can spread the cost out over a number of years. kathleen: how would you cover the costs? >> that will be announced in the budget in may, but the balance sheet is robust. it's currently under 20% of gdp, so we have room on the balance
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sheet to manage the costs in front of us. kathleen: when you look at the bill and you say ups, we need more. you just increased borrowing for a while? >> like we said with that under 20%, we have headroom on the balance sheet, but were looking closely at how we reprioritize and save money within the current budget and making sure we hit the sources of revenue we need and we will put that together when we bring the budget out on may 8. kathleen: you're not ruling anything out? >> i'm not. with the balance sheet we have in the build, this is a manageable situation for new zealand. kathleen: the reserve bank of new zealand has said if you rebuild with borrowing, that will be potentially inflationary that could ultimately lead to more pressure and more interest rate increases. how do you handle that? >> that is where it is important to recognize the kind of rebuild were talking about. this is a long-term. we can't fix all of the roads or
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rail network affected within one year, so when you spread that caused over one year to three years, the inflationary impact is less than people might be fearing. haidi: another -- kathleen: another thing i asked minister robertson about was the possibility of raising taxes and the rbnz suggesting that is the way to go. he said they will minimize borrowing and everything before raising taxes. he mentioned this coming soon, may 18, when the budget is coming out, and they have taken a look at their spending and taken some things out of the budget already like a social spending program, so they are starting to make room for this cause without having to increase borrowing or raise taxes. the other biggest challenge for the year or the biggest risk to the outlook is global economic
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uncertainty, and that is a major factor in theme from many countries and certainly at these imf world bank readings here in washington. haidi: kathleen hays there. well, the strongest cyclone to hit western australia has made landfall, impacting operations in the key commodity producing region let's get the latest in melbourne, australia. we have been talking about the cost of reconstruction and recovery. what is the latest when it comes to it? >> overnight, finally it did cross the coast of western australia, the major townships in that area, so it also crossed over the head land and has made landfall and has been downgraded to a category three cyclone, so according to the bureau of meteorology, it is tracking as
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expected, on path at the moment. it may make it across the border to the northern territory in coming days, but as i said, it was a category five and has been downgraded to category three and is heading further inland with a lot of strong wind, and expecting dumpings that reigns in the coming days so even though the cyclone has been denigrated and has missed major townships, it is well south of major tourist destinations in australia, in the northwest of the country, and it is still tracking inland and bringing severe -- shery: not to mention that western australia is a key commodities producer, so what is the impact on mining and resources? >> inland is a huge iron ore port that has been close. ships were being routed out of the port area yesterday in preparation for this event, said
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that is the first thing. we are waiting for updates as to what further will happen with the ports operations at this stage, but with the moment is where new crest has a gold and copper mine. we know that new crest had implemented a production ramp down plan and had evacuated a number of staff and was operating with a skeleton staff conditions as they secured the safety. a lot of staff from the region have been effectuated to perth, whilst this emergency is on, so we will find out in the next 24 hours to 48 hours what will happen, but as i said, still expecting strong winds and rain to follow in the coming days. haidi: the latest on that cyclone having widespread impact
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. we are still getting cost assessments as well. let's get caught up to date with first word headlines. the imf says china and india will account for half of global growth this year. the fund is forecasting growth in the region at 4.6% in 2023, contributing over 70% of global growth. it's director says china's recovery is lifting activity around the region and sees the biggest impact coming from demand for goods and services. world bank president david malpass says the success of stalled debt relief talks relies on china's cooperation and says there has been some progress in negotiations with beijing softening its stance on blenders taking losses along with other creditors. china is the biggest bilateral lender to poor nations, 15% already in debt distress. >> they are burdened by high levels of debt, that the proof is in the pudding, the details,
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is zambia going to get an mou? we would like to see one this week. china needs to be willing to sign off on the structure of the restructuring. haidi: brazil's president lula da silva is calling on brics nations to come up with the currency to replace the dollar, continuing the crusade of what it ceases -- sees is the dominance of the u.s. the be ok governor says the recent baking turmoil in the u.s. and europe has not directly affected korea and told bloomberg there is a lot to learn from the crisis and they have to be ready for similar situations. >> it hasn't affected us much directly because our exposure to
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the silicon valley bank was limited. on the other hand, we are concerned whether it will be well contained, and so far it looks good. haidi: those are your first word headlines. shery: if you missed any of those conversations at the imf spring meetings, you can go to the interactive function on the bloomberg and watch us live and dive into the securities are bloomberg functions we always talk about and become part of that conversation as well. if you missed anything, just send us instant messages during the shows. this is for bloomberg subscribers only. check it out. this is bloomberg. ♪
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in a conversation earlier, she told me she is worried that inflation and expectations could bounce back. >> we are past eight period when markets were extraordinarily bullish. they were hoping to come out of this global inflation process without recession or only a moderate recession. the markets were then experiencing this optimistic atmosphere and suddenly we had these events and the banking system quickly contained, but generate disruption in the change in the environment. >> when will the chilean economy feel the full impact of the rate hikes? >> well, we are already feeling it. inflation is coming down. core inflation has been steady for several months. we know that monetary policy acts with a lag, one makes a decision and the effect slowly transmits into the economy. we will see reductions in underlying inflation in the coming months and therefore will
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continue to see the adjustment process in consumption. we are delivering a clear message as advice that we are not going to lower the rate that has been stable for some time now, as long as we are unsure that the convergence of inflation is being consolidated. >> i need to ask you about political rhetoric across latin america. we are getting a sense of interference in central bank policy. is this a trend that concerns you? >> in our country, the role of the central bank and its autonomy is understood and we are in the midst of a constitutional change process the second stage of the constitutional change process and we greatly value and appreciate that with the two opportunity so far the autonomy of the central bank has been recognized, but when you have
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high inflation, people are suffering from the consequences and we have to do the work and lower inflation. shery: that was the central bank president with me earlier today. time now for morning calls, wall street banks kicking off earnings season friday with reports that will help investors gauge if the sector is too cheap or too risky. annabelle joins us for more from hong kong. this could be an opportunity to capitalize? annabelle: that's right. if investors can figure out who is navigating the banking jitters better than their peers, but bank earnings to set the stage for the rest of the u.s. reporting season and are closely tracked, particularly bank lending as a key barometer and component of a healthy economy. you can see this banking chart here that stocks are trading at historically cheap levels. this showing the kbw bank index at the lowest level since
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november 2020. on an earnings basis, forward pe basis, a drop from 10 a couple of months ago to nearly 20 times in april 2021. the question is whether this sort of metric is justified. one is saying that shares surprise for catastrophe and the risk/reward balance is looking attractive here. also, essentially market participants say they seem to be pricing in a permanent destruction, and that is unlikely. haidi: i think a barclays analyst said the top 1, 2, three things is basically deposits, deposits, deposits. annabelle: that's right. it is the question of the earnings season because we had that fear of contagion from the collapse of svb bank and others
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that sparked investors to pull out savings from small lenders and put them in the bigger wall street names comes of these of the lenders that have been particularly hard-hit. the top three reporting next week on the first republic, that we reported about in great detail and was rescued on april 24, of those will be the questions, the deposit flows we have seen. morgan stanley is one of those saying you know what, if the numbers are not as bad as feared than actually we could see the smaller regional lenders gaining, so that is as you say the key question. deposits will be closely tracked, then perhaps this hoping now that the crisis does look to be contained with the question is as well how relevant these numbers will be. haidi: yeah, and that is the point our next guest makes. annabelle, he says it's like assessing banks from a rearview mirror. he joins us now from tampa,
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florida. great to have you. the last time we spoke we were in the thick of the banking crisis, the sort of burgeoning banking crisis at the point. are these numbers interesting to you? what will be most useful from this quarters earnings? >> well, you have to study the balance sheets closely, because the income statement is the rearview mirror. the balance sheets is a what you're looking for is does the bank have a lot of fixed rate loans on its balance sheet, which would be mortgages, auto loans, credit card loans?does it have a high proportion of assets insecurities? because if they have a lot of fixed rate securities and loans, then they are locked into rates that will not go up as interest rates have come up within the economy. that means they cannot pay depositors higher rates for the money because basically the, as
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they say, you have these fixed rates, of those banks will be troubled when you go through the coming year. i think you know, the second thing you want to look at in these balance sheets is how much of the bank's securities were moved into what is called the maturity bucket? how much have the banks attempted to hide the fact the real equity has been declining substantially over the past year? if you see a bank has done that, then you have to question all of the financial numbers that that bank presents to you, because basically the bank made a conscious decision to fail to tell investors that they were seeing a significant decline in their equity and they did not want you to know about it, so basically the next thing you have to be looking at is what are the regulators going to do? in 2006 to 2008, we had this
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huge banking crisis in congress that we are going to set up a committee to look at what has happened in this period, and when the committee reported in 2011 on what had happened, one of the most critical things they said was that the regulators did not do their job, that if they had done their job, then the crisis would not have an as severe, but when people write about this crisis, they will say the regulators totally blew it, and they blew it knowing what happens to the value of bank assets when interest rates go up, and they ignored it, and they exhorted in their stress tests, and the functioning of the companies. shery: right, even with all of the external and internal investigations and soul-searching, where we see more examples of the way that regulators and supervision really failed? >> well, i think you know, they
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don't have to say anything more because three banks went under and they have got, what you are going to see is that when the regulators know that they can be severely criticized for what they failed to do and what bank boards of directors know that they can be severely criticized for what they have done in hiding their true equity, what you are going to get is a lot of regulation. the banks are going to shrink the balance sheets. they will attempt to come if you will, make fewer loans and go through their loan portfolios to assure themselves that there are not large loan losses. the banks will have to stop -- shery: so richard? >> they are how going to have to give depositors higher rates. shery: when can we hear regulators and perhaps banks themselves something the all clear, because we have not heard that from the imf.
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we have not heard that from other high-profile guests like j.p. morgan's jamie dimon like the lingering effect of this banking system. >> he is correct, right? the off clue when not be sound, the bell will not be wrong for quite some time. there is a tremendous amount of misunderstanding over banking. for example, people think the u.s. government bailed out the banks and the federal reserve did in the fdic did. they did not. they did nothing. what they did is function as bag men. the banks gave the money to the federal reserve, who gave it to the banks that needed assistance. there was no federal reserve money. fdic the did not come up with the money i'm of the banks came up with the money. the banks dropped $440 billion into the federal reserve when this crisis developed, and that money was used to bailout the troubled banks comes of the
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banking industry is not in terrible condition but right now the banking system is going to be hit with a regulatory wave which is going to change the method of operation which will harm the earnings over the next 12 months. haidi: we will be watching those results. >> always good to talk to you. thank you. plenty more ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪
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shery: take a look at u.s. futures. not a lot of movement, but still downside pressure. u.s. equities were higher in the new york session. we had eco-data digested by investors with ppi softening but jobless claims rising for the first time in three weeks. we will continue to watch the banking sector closely. we had the kbw bank index down 20% in march, jp morgan, wells fargo, and citibank reporting earnings on friday, and kicking off this new season. daybreak asia is next. ♪
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