>> morning. it is daybreak europe. i am manus cranny and dubai. dani burger is having a day off. dovish data and hawkish hike. asian stocks follow wall street higher as soft u.s. jobs and price reports give optimism the fed is near the end of raising rates. in europe, the ecb officials moved to another half-point increase. jamie, jane and charlie. the ceo's of jp morgan, citigroup and wells fargo kick off the bank earnings season with investors focused on deposit close from small lenders. plus, the fbi arrests a 21-year-old national guardsmen in connection with the leak of highly classified documents. he is due to be arraigned in boston today. good morning. dani burger had today off. she is on a later show and

you'll get plenty of her later. the ppi drops by the most since the beginning of the pandemic below the cpi by the most since 2009. that is good for stocks. we are at the peak of potentially inflation. we are at the peak potentially of the fed hiking, but are we going to go to disinflation downside risk to the economy. do you need to the risk rather than bolster your equity position? equities drift lower. no fed pivot. slow growth therefore they are not that bullish on stocks. bank of america warm on the earnings. they got a beat from bad to even worse. goldman's get the site out to dividends to 2024 273 bux from 75 bucks. all is not robust and well. the equity markets are flirting with two higher on s&p 500. nasdaq up by 2% yesterday. could it be that the conundrum is unseated.

the bullish conundrum is unseated retail sales. more fed speak today. the dollar down on the back of the drop in yields down for the fifth week in a row. the lord -- longest losing streak the dollar. the longest losing streak since 2020. the euro is at your high. the ecb voices are calling for 25 or 50 basis points. gold, now i look smart. i did look so smart last year when i told the financial advisor let's have some gold. a record high. you have nymex crude as opec says you have an erosion of the surface in a deficit in the fourth quarter. all the heavy lifting has been done for now. will we see a deficit in higher prices in the oil market? that is a state of play on markets. more fed speak later in the day. reporters around the world are set to discuss latest u.s. data

and the rest in documents that were leaked. plus a look ahead to the largest u.s. bank earnings that kick off the earnings season today. it used to be alcoa and now we are focused on banks. u.s. producer rises fell and merged with the most since the start of the pandemic. at the same time, weekly jobless data suggests a softening in the labor market. can we really say that? michelle is a voice of reason and she pulled me back like a race horse at the track doors. michelle, are you worried about the jobless claims and the ppi? michelle: i'm try to give you balanced perspective, manus. it is too soon to worry too much. these reports while important especially to the narrative of labor market softening and prices coming down are just two reports. we need to remember that the fed is taking into account the totality of the data and had two more weeks of this data. let's look at the two reports.

the jobless claims week to week can be fluctuating. they have showed another softness this past week. i would caution that the more than one third of the increase came frhan one third of the ince came from california where we have seen a number of tech layoffs in the wake of a lack of those downturns they are in that sector. secondly, there could be holiday affects here from the good friday holiday as well as recent adjustments to the seasonal data the labor department. a wonky way of saying there is e weeks to come to see if it continues. ppi it was more affirmative falling by the most since the pandemic. the soft disinflation story looked good for the people betting on that narrative. the hope is that filters to consumer prices. ppi being early in the pipeline. the one thing we have talked about as energy prices came down a lot and we do that would be the case because march 2022 was russia's war in ukraine a very high bar to meet. separately, we did see other

categories including those under services decline. the vehicle while sailing among others that declined in price. we will have to wait to see the impact of oakland -- opec-plus production cuts and others. feeding into the narrative today that may be the fed have more reason to pause when they meet again in may. manus: is a question of the wiggle room. the argument will be how sticky is inflation? has gone from 9% to 5%, the hard work, the really hard work begins now. pivot to the ecb. a bunch of voices. a shakespearean clack within the ecb are coursing for higher rates. who are they, why do i care and how much are they calling for? michelle: it's funny because over the past week or so we have been tracking a lot of the ecb governing council members coming out and emphasizing more of the

nearing an end to the tightening cycle theme. throughout the week we have been having these debates not so much on the substance of the tone of things. most recently, as you mentioned, we are hearing more from governing council members, most notably austrian robert holtzman and the chief talking about leaving rate hikes on the table. they are tipping the balance again towards that complicated decision coming up in may also for them and saying as holtzman said 50 basis point hike still on the table. the chief said there is still a way to go on the tightening. both of them emphasizing the other side and we are not quite done. others also saying in everyone agreeing maybe they are close to the finish. all agree no promises about what it will be in may and they want more data to take into account in the weeks to come. manus: they want to the optionality. thank you very much michelle. 21-year-old u.s. national

guardsmen has been arrested over the leak of classified documents. let's get the latest with bloomberg's john carney. what do know of the individual and the process of his arrest and arraignment? john: this came about apparently because he was a member on a platform called discord, which is favored by people who like gaming according to the charges in the reports. he began showing other people on this platform the documents. he is stationed apparently or was stationed apparently at an air force base in cape cod in massachusetts and he is from boston. he is 21 years old. he joined the national guard in 2019. manus: ok. let's see what happens with that

arraignment we are just showing pictures of him being taken out of the back of the van. john, thank you very much. we will track the story. the president saying he is not so much concerned about the data but concerned about actually how it happened. the largest u.s. bank is set to get off the broader earnings season. wells fargo and citibank and morgan stanley all due later today and will be focused on deposit during the recent making term. did money flow into the big, big names, morgan stanley, jpm, etc.? our senior finance editor is here. is that the focus, the flows on the doors rather than the projection on credit or what would be are you? >> it is a range of things investors will focus on. investors are interested in the earnings but what we have seen in the first quarter has been a busy quarter. we have the credit suisse crisis, the banking crisis in

the u.s.. all of these things will be on the minds of people looking at these results p --. deposits are a big thing. deposits have flown out. where they have flown to hopefully these results will reveal some of that information. bones is another issue they will look at which will be a good indication of whether these banks are lending and what we can expect the economy going forward and whether these concerns over a recession are really something that should be on the minds of people. manus: the blood began to talk about credit and access to credit. lael brainard talking about that at the federal reserve. when you look at the volatility within banking, you mentioned credit suisse, ubs, let's see what we hear from the new ceo at the quarterly earnings. it did money flow from credit suisse into ubs? is that what people think we will see, these mega trends in regional to the gpm's to the bank of america's?

is that the baseline assumption in this volatility? stefania: i would say so because the crisis affected midsize lenders. the larger lenders have been the beneficiaries of some of these flows, some of the things that happened at credit suisse and those flows. let's see. it will all be revealed. manus: jp morgan, wells fargo, and citi. monroe the headlines in a colloquial way that i might actually know jane personally. that is a bit overambitious with the headlines but what the heck. we will see where the numbers get us. i know some of them personally. let's talk about one individual who have never met but he does not have a problem with wealth. it is mr. arnold. he is a 40% owner of the family of louis vuitton. he leaves elon musk literally in the dusk.

$12 billion yesterday, the second biggest single day move for anybody on the wealth. he is leaving elon in the dust. elon musk is cutting the prices of his tesla whereas if you look at the louis vuitton family, lvmh is raising prices. a volume of tesla's versus a dearth of broken bags. we are on the actual wealth, company value now, which is what you have here. the actual propulsion of louis vuitton into the world's top 10 market values. it is close to $500 billion and that is one of the main drivers of the arnault wealth process. this is what it did in the space

of a day, up over 5%, propelling louis vuitton. louis vuitton and her maze on average return 20% over the past decade. the stoxx 600 delivered 8% returns. this juggernaut that is luxury in europe is to what tech is in the united states of america. rich go his way you can track where elon's wealth number is versus arnault. you can safely say he is doing a little bit better with bargains -- birkins and he is on teslas. at 1:30 p.m. we will get demand for u.s. goods and services when we see the retail services -- retail sales numbers for march. at 1:45 we are going into fed speak land. christopher waller will speak and take questions at a florida

meeting. at 3 p.m. the latest university of michigan consumer sentiment results from the u.s.. later some of the big u.s. banks , jp morgan, wells fargo along with citi announcer first-quarter earnings. comingcoming up, the markets wil continue to act to the latest data out of the u.s.. we will talk it all up on bloomberg. ♪

>> our expectation is that inflation will be conquered over time. it will not happen immediately if you go into 2020 four, you're going to see inflation around the world getting much closer to central-bank targets. >> i believe we can get inflation under control but i

don't underestimate the challenge because just as in the united states and the eu, core inflation, underlying inflation is still between 4-6%. there are still a lot of work to do. >> we all expect a reduction in energy prices and other important prices will pass through to retail prices in the coming months. we will have volatility in this part of the year but i think the level of inflation will be much lower than last year's. that trend is confirmed in discussions we are having here. manus: just some of the voices from our coverage of the imf meeting this week in washington. wednesdays u.s. inflation data prompted a rush to buy bonds in the middle of the week, but can that sugar rush last? our next guest says she has overweight long dated u.s. treasuries. joining us now is laureline chatelain. our guest who is head a fixed income strategy atpictet wealth management. it is your first time.

let's get straight to it. the voice we just heard, this cacophony arises that we will be inflation and inflation will come back to trend. we could have gone from 9% to 5%. does the hard work begin really an outcome of the 5% to 2%? laureline: thanks for having me. indeed, what we expect going forward is still sticky inflation and as such, what was interesting about the fed's minutes is that even though credit condition is something that we will look at and we have seen that the sticky inflation is still there and that's why we have the rebound in treasury yields, still going forward, it is difficult to see the fed cutting rates this year as the market expects because of the sticky inflation. that could lead the treasury yields to continue the rebound that we have seen over this last week. manus: a number of people have joined dani and myself this week and hinted that they want to be

longer in duration. is that predicated on a material slowdown in the u.s. economy? and i look at the with around in the yield curve in the two is intense in my last guest said get ready for a slowdown in the u.s.. this is when you want to be long duration. laureline: the idea of being longer duration is basically hedging against a credit crunch versus a credit squeeze which is mostly the baseline scenario. what we have been doing on our side since november is adding duration on the longer parts of the u.s. treasury yield curve. this is to use treasuries as a hedge first in terms of if we have a credit crunch for example and also because close to 4% receive value on the long-term on treasuries because we expect

steel and corn and fish to come down over the next decade. manus: let's just pick up on the credit crunch versus a credit squeeze. we have gone through a hugely volatile. -- hugely volatile there in march when money flowed to money markets among other banks and deposits dropped. what we put in the gtv lives, the use of emergency facilities at the fed, discount window is down for the fourth week in a row. let's take able to edit. this is where the debate is on credit crunch versus credit squeeze. what is the difference for you, and are you heartened by the fact emergency lending has dropped? laureline: so, is definitely good news that we have seen the slowdown, but it is still low slowdown because it is still quite large. what we see as we look at corporate markets, what you see is the dichotomy between the

quality where the spreads have tightened again especially if we look at u.s. high-yield that will be rated, you see the spread as tightened, not get back to the pre-pandemic -- pre-banking from all levels but still they are down. if you look at the most risky sectors also the lowest rated categories you still see stress and spreads that have basically not really moved down to give kelly from the banker pre-level. that leads us to believe that investors for now are rushing for quality and they are very skeptical about the weakest part of credit. that is why as long as we don't see and overall rally in credit, it still means the credit crunch risk is still out there. manus: then when it comes to differentiating between u.s. high-yield and european

high-yield we hear these various voices at the ecb in the past 24 hours. calling for further rate hikes 2550 basis points to be the option there. where is the biggest risk in higher yields between the two, between the u.s. and europe? laureline: on our side, both. we still see high-yield european linked and speaking about companies that are issuing sometimes in both markets. we have seen the contagion there. also in the past big crisis but what i would say is more important to us now is the floating risk versus fixed exposure. what we are seeing so far is u.s. high-yield issuers have made a lot of usage of syndicated loans, private debt, and that is basically obviously floating rate loans. as such, there potentially more exposed of a risk of higher

yields for longer, especially if as we expect, the fed is not cutting rates this year because just to give you an idea on u.s. leveraged loan the average yield is close to 10% now. manus: with that backdrop, a number of people have talked about liquidity, a lack of liquidity in the treasury market etc.. are you seeing any of that in the flow between the customer and dealer side? do you think liquidity is thinner than normal and therefore this is perhaps adding to volatility scenario that we see? laureline: definitely liquidity is a problem and something we have been following quite closely since the beginning of 2022. what we see also link to the spiked volatility and treasury yields is linked to the fact that we have such uncertainty regarding the fed rate pass ahead. i also think during the banking turmoil we had a law on u.s.

investment rate corporate bonds, but not much on the high-yield corporate bonds. we know the high-yield is the place where we have less liquidity and that is also why we want in this context to be on rather liquid bonds. investment-grade treasuries. what we have seen so far is that we don't have fears of significant pickup in default, most investors tend to simply hold onto the u.s. for euro high-yield bonds and not sell them when there is some stress. that's also potentially explaining why we have not seen such surged in credit spread during this banking turmoil. manus: ok, let's sit with the banks report today. that is laureline chatelain my guest this morning, fixed income strategist over at pictet wealth management. we will look ahead to earnings from a trio of u.s. banks, jp morgan, wells fargo and citi.

we will be laser focused on deposit lows and trader revenue. details to come on bloomberg. ♪

manus: let's get the first word news now with adrian wong and hong kong. >> thanks manus. the fbi has arrested a 21-year-old air national guardsmen the leak of classified documents which have details on the war in ukraine. attorney general merrick garland says jack teixeira will be charged with the unauthorized removal, retention, and transmission of national defense formation. the new york times has reported that jack teixeira was the leader of a gaming check group where the documents first.. the french government says around 380,000 people took part in a 12 day a protest against president emmanuel macron's engine reforms. -- pension reform.

the paris metro and international trade services operating almost normally. france's constitutional council will issue a ruling on the controversial law on friday evening. a health analytics firm is morning that there is a more than one in four chance the pandemic as deadly as covid-19 could hit the world within the next decade. affinity says climate change, growth and international travel and the threat proposed by diseases are all contributing to this risk. global news powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm adrian wong. this is bloomberg. ♪

manus: good, it is "bloomberg daybreak europe". some devastator, hawkish hikes, asian stocks follow wall street higher as soft u.s. jobs and inflation reports -- the fed is nearly end of raising rates. in europe, ecb officials lose another half-point increase. jamie jane and charlie, the ceos of jp morgan, citigroup, and wells fargo. did investors are focused on deposit flows from smaller lenders. the fbi arrested 21-year-old national guardsmen in connection with leaking highly classified documents he is due to be arraigned in boston today. you believe in disinflation? do you believe in a downturn? moment, the markets are flying

high. the s&p 500 just off a two month high. asian markets think it up higher today. just pausing for thoughts as we go towards the opening of europe on u.s. equity markets. asian markets for the fourth day in a row, a two month high. you have goldman getting a little bit should be, shaving back the dividend view for 2024. bank of america, the earnings will go from bad to worse. even mark hayfield, there is a bit of gloom at the ubs wealth management at the moment. no fed pivot, slow growth, earnings will contract. we are at a status quote, the back of the biggest drop in ppi since the start of the pandemic. and ppi is now below cpi since the most wins 2009. stocks have had their run. are they done? we will have a look, because the dollar is definitely got a touch

of the weepy's. it is dying for five weeks in a row, longest losing streak since 2020. positioning is building up to run lower. the yield curve house, to now being inverted by just 50 basis points. and gold, long gold, it is pretty much near a record high. the opec report says you will have a deficit in the oil market in the fourth quarter. as i say to you, major lenders in the united states will kick off the broader earnings season. jp morgan, citigroup, and wells fargo. investors are likely to be focused on high deposit during the recent banking turmoil. joining us is senior finance editor, stephani a. all about the flows. >> that is one of the things we are focused on. as we know, there has been a

banking crisis during this quarter. $521 billion estimate but have flown from some of your biggest banks. -- europe's biggest banks. hopefully these earnings will show us some of that. jp morgan, obviously, the biggest u.s. bank, so you would assume that some of the flows have gone in to jp morgan. manus: a thing of beauty, there you go. the producer, anna, just generated this. bank of america, j.p. morgan, and wells fargo. it is all about quality and quality will probably shine in this. is that the basis of our thesis? we are seeing drawdowns from federal reserve lending. they seem to have paused ever so slightly. they seem to have not gotten any worse. is it a quality trade versus the mid-level banks? that is maybe the credit squeeze

conversation. stefania: obviously, the europe's banking crisis affected the midsize lenders the most. jp morgan, you would likely see them being one of the beneficiaries and the bigger banks. it makes sense that investors retail deposits would flow to these bigger, safer banks, you would assume. manus: let's eat what the numbers bring us a little bit later in the day. senior finance reporter. my guest is william smead, he joins us now. good to have you with us. these are the big beasts of banking. do you think they will show magnificent or hefty flows of money in during the month of march? are you waiting for a significant money in in the crisis or will they have been murdered by the flow show out to money market funds? bill: i think they have been

significant beneficiaries of the flows. the main reason is left over from all of the see car fears, demanding of way over capitalization of these banks for a number of years has ended up being a blessing in disguise. because, these longer duration assets that cause so much trouble for the midsize banks are a problem if you need that capital. if you don't need the capital, you can just hold those longer dated treasury obligations until they come due someday. we at gp -- we own jagged -- jp morgan and bank of america. things were incredibly difficult for them and they were coming

under intense pressure by the fed. jp morgan, it was the whale trade, the $6 billion trading they had in london in 2012 that got us into this. this too shall pass. but, you're right, it is a phenomenon below them in the food chain and it certainly is leading to tighter. manus: that caused a rush for backstop capital from the fed, from the bank term funding, the new vehicle that was being used. we are seeing the emergency gouging on that window drop for four weeks in a row. does that say to you, reduce -- reduced risk of credit squeez or do you think we still have a risk of a credit crunch? bill: it is so interesting the

way that the stock market has dealt with this many crisis. what i am saying is, it was centered in what we call a rich session. where who gets hurt wearing silicon valley signature bank and first republic have problems in the united states, our venture capitalists, wealthy private equity people, wealthy tech oriented investors and companies. that is their ecosystem. that is their financial ecosystem. for example, today or yesterday, andrew jesse that runs amazon and used to run amazon web services says, our web services business isn't going to be as good as it was. well, yes, because when the funding dries up in the startup world and that less mature not

priced in the newspaper every day part of the market gets hit, what happens is that funding dries up. what do those startups spend money on? they spend it on digital ads and cloud hosting. all he is doing is admitting to people that there is an effect. the irony is, investors have a bid up the price of the companies to provide the digital ads. including today. it is bizarre. it makes no sense. manus: the other thing i'm curious about, i saw it started with the bank of america as flow show. the constrictor around the u.s. economy is commercial property. then i look at wells fargo, 16% of its book is commercial property. i know they are a big retail bank. how concerned are you about commercial property exposures? do you think it is important

that we get some kind of insight in this quarter report? bill: for many years -- i worked in seattle for 40 years. in the last four years that i worked there, more large skyscraper 30 to 40 story high buildings were built in seattle than any other metropolitan area in the united states for four years running. or example, in downtown seattle, i think amazon owns 32 buildings. now is, people haven't come back to work in these downtowns. so, yes, office buildings in largest city downtowns, the seattle's, the chicago's, the san francisco's, that is a problem. to say it is across-the-board i don't think is very valid. there are some very attractive things in commercial real estate

, just not that particular set. whoever has those loans, that is not very good news for them. manus: let's keep an eye on those. william smead cio of smead capitital management. jobless claims rose for the first time in three weeks. what that means for the fed. in u.s. rates. right here on bloomberg. ♪

>> we need a collective effort between public and private sector around the investment narrative. on a relative basis, if you compare south africa to other brics countries and other emerging markets, turkey, russia, china, even brazil with

the political uncertainty, south africa is actually not as bad when it comes to opportunity and many are starting to call the bottom of the contraction in gdp. you can see this in the performance of the index. we have way outperforms the emerging market index which was down by more than 20% at the end of last year. this year to date, the msci emerging market index is up by 1.1%. the jsc is up by 6.8%, indicating that investors are seeing value in the single name stocks and in the potential for growth in the south african equity markets. we have just seen a slew of results both in the financial markets and in the consumer markets. and by and large, most of those results are in very positive double-digit territory

for growth, indicating an undervaluation of our local stocks as well as potential growth trajectory. we have seen one ipo a couple of weeks ago and we have our first up and coming smaller market ipo next week. we think the ipo market is very much a function of global certainty as well as local certainty. the anecdotal commentary we are getting from banks is that they are a number in the line, but they are holding back until we have a little more certainty around the inflation crisis. will the u.s. go into a recession? what is happening with the china growth trajectory? what is happening with the geopolitical situation? we are seeing green shoots in the medium-term. where we are focusing on is in the private placements market. we have created a new private

placement infrastructure and we have seen 25 new -- i won't call them listings, but new issuances , asks for capital in the market over the last year, which is tremendously positive. manus: the group ceo of johannesburg stock exchange. on some of those risks that she mentioned, you have the german foreign minister visiting china and we have this press briefing by the chinese prime minister, live pictures coming through. that the german foreign minister. saying that taiwan independence movement threatens peace, the work needs to respect taiwan as part of china. you would expect those. certainly more interesting as lines come on as regards to ukraine where the foreign minister says that they have not

-- china delivers no weapons of any -- to any side in the war in ukraine. is that propaganda? is that bolstering their own position? we will of course, debate that. china's rise as a global power will be peaceful, according to the foreign minister. we will keep track of that. prices in the united states fell in march by the most since the start of the pandemic. some jobs data, softer than expected. valerie is there, our markets reporter. valerie: manus, the market really took these numbers in stride. it was a soft landing, that was the big take away from the numbers. inflation is done, surprising to the upside. the job market seems stable now that -- that ppi number fell

month on month. the consensus was for a flat reading, a big mist to the downside. those jobless claims figures ticked up. it was unexpected, mostly do to the california tech layoffs. the a was mostly a dollar weakening trade. risk currencies, broadly, you look at the dollar and aussie dollar, even a dollar korea, it has weakened over 2% in just two days. showing the extent to which this move has been broad. the euro even hit a high, highest level it has seen all year. equities rose. over 1%. the big takeaway for the market was that this was hints of a soft landing. manus: that debate will rage probably be been -- probably

between now and the next fed meeting. it is definitely a component in that. the fed's emergency lending continues to drop. we talked a little bit about this to bill smead. we will talk about whether that continues to abate. what do you make of the data composition? valerie: this is yet another sign that the banking sector continues to stabilize. emergency lending from the fed has dropped for a fourth straight week. actually the first time that the fed lending from its special facility dropped week on week. just another sign the banking sector is stabilizing. the other sign we got is this rush in to money markets that we have talked about a lot. it is starting to slow as well, another sign that the banking sector is stabilizing. the deposit outflow is stabilizing, that is a good sign for small and medium-size banks.

earlier this week, the fhlb issuance that dropped like a stone, these are all great signs. what we look for now is anymore hints from these bank ceos who will be reporting earnings. we hear from some today, a lot of the smaller midsize banks later next week. that is really the missing piece of the market here. the fed will know just a bit more. they speak to these banks regularly, trying to get a picture of how much credit tightening will be the fallout. the market will be listening to them very closely. manus: we will keep an eye on the data. coming up, a key on france's pension age takes place today. they took to the streets again and stormed louis vuitton's headquarters yesterday. the story next on bloomberg. ♪ the only smart bed in the world that actively cools, warms,

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manus: france's constitution will review the contribution will -- controversial pension reform. we have caroline in paris. what is at stake today? caroline: a lot is at stake. the constitution in france today will rule on two things. the entire pension reform and the possibility of a referendum that has been asked by the opposition that would then start to process, requiring about 10% of the french population, around 5 million people, to sign in order to organize a referendum probably by next year. it is unlikely that the constitution will reject the entire reform, but it could say for example, the debate in parliament -- democratic process

-- decreed to bypass the vote in parliament, and that is against the principle of clarity and sincerity of the constitution. most likely, it will reject parts of the reform. for example, the senior index which forces companies to publish the number of people over 55 years old that they are employing, that could be rejected because that is not a part of social security budget, which the law has been presented. of course, the consequences could be disastrous if they reject the reform because that means he will have to start from scratch, and that could have an impact on public finances. if they validate the heart of the reform which is raising the retirement age from 62 to 64,

the external approval of his pension reform and will make it harder for the unions in the future to continue the protests. manus: certainly looking at the chart, i think that is interesting in terms of necessary and unnecessary to reform the pension regulation, it was almost a 50-50's lit. i thought that was quite interesting. what are the consequences for emmanuel macron if they reject reform. caroline: the most immediate consequences would have to be slightly amended and changed. it should still be implemented by september. this referendum idea, if it is validated by the council, even if it is implemented, it could

be a referendum down the line perhaps next year. huge consequences for emmanuel macron, huge distractions as well in terms of the relationship with the unions in terms of the future reform that he will be able to pass, because he has still has four years, so it is making very difficult for his reform agenda. manus: let's see how the challenge goes today. i was caroline in paris. you have asia trading at two month highs, up for four days in a row. a two month high in the equity markets in asia. the nikkei, up. you are looking at a slight inflection point in the rates market. aussie rates up by over five basis points at the moment in terms of that. commodities trading a little bit

higher. you can see that copper is up by 1.48 percent, likewise with aluminum. you are seeing a little bit of a bid to that. a lot of it comes back to the dollar. let's focus if we can on the fx block, right down in the bottom, the u.s. dollar, the bloomberg dollar index is down. you are looking at near 12 months, it is not too far behind. that gives you quite an important consequence on the euro. she is at a one-year high. looking at a significant move in the dollar. the impact in the euro is quite substantial. you will keep an eye on this as we go to big bank on bloomberg. ♪