>> good morning, welcome to "daybreak australia". annabelle: counting down to asia's major market opens. shery: the top stories this hour.

president biden is looking to raise the pressure on beijing with new curbs that will limit american investments in key parts of china's economy. haidi: fed speak, signal support for another rate hike, just prudence. space x'a attempt and's and a blast comp locating musk's goal to transport humans to the moon. u.s. treasuries open muted in the asia session. we had stocks falling in the new york session. self jobless claims, the philadelphia fed index fell to the lowest level since 2020. not boding well for the business outlook. we have treasury yields across the curve of falling, two-year falling for the first time in six sessions. 10-year yield holding at 353 level. when it came to oil prices,

wiping out most of the gains this year after we saw the surprise announcement by opec-plus to reduce output. we are still digesting corporate earnings. haidi: a lot of concerns around price pressures in the u.s.. in asia, the focus on japanese inflation. this will be the last set of reading comes through before the boj's next meeting. in terms of what we are watching, it is the core readings, the broader level, somewhat by government subsidies to offset rising prices. when you look at the next fresh food, that is expected to tick higher. will that be enough to move the needle? economists suggest not, it's interesting when you look at the market data, trades are starting

to agitate for a policy change. bank of america saying it could come by june. some in the fx market says we could be passed the january high by the midpoint of the year for the japanese yen. princi has been looking weaker. today in asia we are seeing a trend lower, sidney futures went into a drop, kiwi stocks online in the red. haidi: president bynum is said to sign an exec at of order that will limit key investments by american businesses to china. the treasury secretary it says washington is ready to accept to the economic costs for national security. she is appealing to beijing to cooperate. >> the u.s. will assert ourselves to win our vital interests are at stake. we do not to seek to decouple our economy from china's. a full separation of our

economies would be disastrous for both countries. it would be destabilizing for the rest of the world. haidi: let's bring our chief north asia correspondent. tell us about these investment curbs, who would they affect? >> this is a potential executive order that president biden could be signing in the coming weeks, leading up to the g7 meetings. we'll have the finance ministers meeting coming up, and the leaders shown it -- summit coming up. we could see the executive order come down limiting american companies ability to invest in key technologies in china. in particular, companies that have american management. it will have an impact on inter-capital and private equity, who are feeling the investment coming.

we are hearing that biden is a briefing his g7 allies ahead of the meetings, where we will get more details after he signs this executive order. he wants to get the support of those allies. sources tell us we are not expecting other key members to announce their own investment restrictions. biden is trying to get their verbal support for such a move. this would target new investments, not existing ones. we know about the export controls on semiconductors, this would affect down the chain of investments and artificial intelligence, and quantum computing. we are expected to get more details once the executive order is signed. this has been something the biden administration has been working on for a couple of years. it follows on the initial salvo

fired by the trump administration with those export tariffs on chinese imports to the united states. we will wait to see the details. this marks a new phase in the economic national security efforts by the u.s. against what they see as china's efforts to gain key technologies that could end up in the hands of the military. shery: we have insight into the biden administration's thinking, what will the priorities be when it comes to dealing with beijing? >> we had direct commentary from secretary yellen. she said the u.s. will not step back when it comes to defending their own national security. the u.s. is willing to take an economic hit to make sure that they do so. she pushed back against the idea that china will overtake the u.s. in terms of economic size. she spoke about the need to link

corporations with human rights. some areas where she was perhaps holding and all of branch, she made the point she is willing to visit in beijing when the time is right. when that time is right remains open -- up in the air. the take is that she was on the hawkish side of things, making it clear that the u.s. is on a path when it comes to economic cooperation with the u.s.. when you have a janet yellen making the case, it shows you how far the debate has moved. haidi: it is those economic costs coming at a time where there is uncertainty for the u.s. economy. we continue to watch from the rhetoric out of the fed, what is the latest we have heard? >> a powerful decoupling, what

will happen with interest rates, we had the cleveland fed is saying that rates have to go higher. she was making the point that we have to be prudent going forward, keep an eye what is happening on the banking stability story. that is front and center of policymakers minds. the message was that inflation remains too high, they have to tackle inflation. the expectation is the fed will raise rates again in may, may pause after that. that will certainly update where the fed debate is not. shery: let's get over to vonnie quinn with the first word headlines. vonnie: china is planning to carry out a string of military drills in the waters of is east coast and in the south china sea. this comes amid tensions with taiwan and the u.s..

a statement by chinese officials warns of military activity near the port city until noon on tuesday. the u.s. and philippines are holding military exercises through next week. the bbo seat says it will assure that rates are appropriate to maintain the stability of the banking sector. interest-rate risks need to serious attention as china draws a lesson from the beat -- recent u.s. turmoil. inflation will pick up in the coming months, slower consumer prices trigger worries. canada's police force is investing in a heist at the airport, the royal canadian mounted police say they are looking into a gold robbery. gold mined in canada can travel through the airport honestly to customers around the world. space x's attempts to send us -- a rocket into space ended in a blast.

the launch was crucial for a starship and meant to show the vehicle could reach a space. shortly after the explosion, the ceo tweeted that the next launch would take place in a few months. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. this is bloomberg. haidi: more details on space x's launch which could complicate elon musk's mars ambitions. shares their outlook for the economy as they expect one more rate hike from the fed. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> we see inflation moving into the rearview mirror. the fed will want to make sure inflation gets down. i think the idea that they will pivot is a mistake, they are more likely to pause, hold rates in an elevated level, and continue to see the economy decelerate. it will create further tightening. haidi: left on president. our next guest is beginning to feel the impact on the fed rate hikes and expect bigger hikes in the next 6-12 months. we have cherly smith joining us

from massachusetts. pretty measured, trying to strike the balance to view, suggesting we are not at the end of the tightening cycle but closer to the end than the beginning. do you think we are finally going to see the catch up from the lag effect that has confounded us from the data we have continued to see? cheryl: that is very true, we are starting to see it in different places. not only the regional bank issues that we had at the end of march, we are starting to see in their loan portfolio's, criticized loans are going up, that is a leading indicator of problems. when we look at the labor market, it has been strong, that is confounding people. you can see that initial jobless claims started rising in

september. the continuing claims started rising into september, and are up 40% from the bottom. they are the signs of a labor market that is starting to turn over. we saw job openings decelerate back in march of 2022. the economic processes take a great deal of time to move through. we had a strong labor market to start. i expect to see it starting to decelerate very rapidly from here. we are seeing stresses in ink loans, auto delinquencies, housing starts. there is a number of early warning areas where we are seeing deceleration. it's almost here. haidi: taking a look at the balance sheets, where do you find opportunities?

you see some when it comes to financials, the immediate risk seems to feed fading. cheryl: as we have been looking at the banking earnings, i have been pleased at the granularity of the earnings estimates, management has realized investment -- investors need to know more of our at the composition of their customer base is. what the composition of their loan portfolios is, and what they are doing with excess reserves. we had a number of banking management giving substantial detail on that. we are seeing a sorting out, some banks have been reporting and are down 5-10%, other banks are staying constant. staying constant is a sign that it is wanting -- something you want to look more at. i would not be trying to catch falling knives on a bank

earnings in this. shery: the outlook seems murky with the backdrop that you talk about with this uncertainty, withdrawals and the labor market. consumer discretionary has been doing phenomenally well in the s&p 500. one could we expect that to take a hit? cheryl: i would use a large atmosphere of uncertainty around estimates. i would stick to the consumer discretionary items that, while they are discussion, are not the big ticket items. stay away from the homebuilders, even though they have bounced up with the expectation that the fed might cause, we will see that start to go down. i think you should look at the established clothing, footwear,

things that are not much of a high ticket item. those are the ones that are still going to see some ability to improve revenues as we move into declining income. . shery: profitability could be an issue, how risky are these companies with operating a leverage on their balance sheets? cheryl: we want to look for companies that are the reverse of what you want to look for coming out of a recession, you don't want to company with operating a leverage. if you have high leverage, every time your revenue goes down, your earnings go down even more. were looking for companies that have a strong fortress balance sheet, demonstrated ability to make your earnings and have a past recessions, through easier times. maybe not the most biggest and

fanciest companies. but solid companies that have demonstrated the ability to manage well. shery: the headline today, the biden administration expected to enact restrictions on the chinese economy. is this something you look out for when you are investing in these companies that might have exposure to china that depends heavily on revenue? cheryl: it's good to have a broader impact than just china. when you look at the size of the investments that are affected by this proposed regulatory change, it is not large relative to the entire chinese economy, relative to investment and position of china and the world economy, it could have a substantial ability to slow other countries as well. and therefore many companies.

when you look at when it china reopened, that have the ability to pull up many countries, manufacturing, indexes of leading indicators. if it leads to a slower investment in china and slower growth in china, that could have an effect on a number of companies. i wouldn't keep it to looking at companies that have exposure and china. we found that supply chains were so complicated in covid, you found companies that you didn't think had exposure that had it. we need to be cautious here. shery: you can get around above all of these top stories, and get your day going, terminal subscribers go to dayb go.

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shery: space x was forced to blow up its record for minutes after liftoff when an engine failed and it failed to separate from the booster, we have been tracking this story and the incredible visuals. despite the dramatic explosion, space x remaining optimistic about future prospects. >> this is how spacex rules. they are not afraid to fail, they fail publicly and blow things up and learn from it and have another go. that is what is going to happen on this case. before the launch, he gave it a 50-50 chance of success.

it started off well, the liftoff was successful, the launch tower survived, that was one of the goals. things didn't go well. a number of engines failed, the two parts of the rocket failed to separate, and started to spin out of control. that is when space x deliberately it up. shery: how soon are we expecting them to try again? >> elana muska tweeted that they learned a lot from today's four minute flight and says they will have another go in a few months. there are plenty of space x ships in production right now, they have that facility in boca which turns out rockets at a rapid rate. there will be at repair work to do, some of the pictures tweeted out our gigantic crater underneath the launch mound, there are images of the debris

being thrown out for some distance from where the launch took place. there will be repair work to get done. this is part of the plan. a rapid reuse of launch vehicles, getting the ship to orbit, and eventually onto the moon, human flight to mars. it has aggressive deadlines, which tend to slip, which we have seen with elon musk and tesla. the program has been remarkable, we can expect plenty more lunches to come. shery: here is a quick check of the latest business flash headlines. -- trading tokyo following japan's largest initial public offering since 2018. the banking unit of billionaire -- record 10 raised 619 million

dollars. just over a thousand ¥400 each. the top of a target range of that was lowered earlier in the offering process. u.s. list shares of tsmc soared after the company reaffirmed its capital spending target. it is sticking with earlier plans to spend as much of their $6 billion to upgrade. despite weak electronics demand. the profit group 2.1% in the first quarter, marking its slowest pace in four years. buzzfeed shares were down 2% after the company said it both -- shut its news operation. it's coo are leaving part of the comebacks. insider is cutting about 10% of its staff in latest sides of retrenchment in the digital

media business. haidi: this is what we are setting up when it comes to the final friday session for asia argus. it looks like a muted beginning, to the downside of course. we saw setting up a second day of dipped trading in asia. tech earnings be the biggest draw from the downside that we saw overnight in the u.s. a session with stocks falling, bonds are rising. we saw softening indications in the labor market, and housing, business outlook, all looking questionable. it is continuing to church through a slew of corporate earnings and fed speakers. we continue to gauge a to the proposed overhaul to the reserve bank. we are watching trading in the kiwi as well. that currency dropping to a five week low. q. week bond yields have dropped after the quarterly inflation number slowed more than expected. the aussie dollar is holding

steady at 67 u.s. cents. we are looking to see more optimism when it comes to japanese equities. you're seeing influence when it comes to the top picks pushing more optimism when it comes to japanese stocks. watching japanese holdings in the u.s. treasuries in this session, close to a 3.5 year low. l(jennifer) wthe reason why golo customers have such long term success is because we focus on real foods in the right balance so you get the results you want. when i tell people how easy it was for me to lose weight on golo, they don't believe me. they don't believe i can eat real food and lose this much weight. the release supplement makes losing weight easy. release sets you up for successful weight loss because it supports your blood sugar levels between meals so you aren't hungry or fatigued. after i started taking release, the weight just started falling off. since starting golo and taking release, i've gone from a size 12 to a 4. before golo, i was hungry all the time

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>> national security is of paramount importance in our relationship with china. even though these policies may have economic impacts, they are driven by straightforward national security considerations . we will not compromise on these concerns, even when they force trade-offs with our economic interests.

shery: u.s. treasury secretary speaking at an event in washington. we are expected the biden administration to unveil the new investment curbs on china that could hurt key parts of his economy at a time when the international monetary funds says the country will be of major driver of global growth. imf senior resident steven barnett dresses now. good to have you with us at a time where we are expecting a global slowdown. steven: it's a pleasure to be here. china is going to be a key driver of global growth this year. at a time when the global economy is slowing, we have china growth picking up. by our math, china will be one third of global growth. shery: we continue to see the geopolitical tensions play out

with the u.s.. how much will these investment curbs hurt the prospects of growth? steven: that's a great point. we know that geopolitical fragmentation can be costly. it is easy to see global output being reduced by 7% from trade fragmentation. that's the equivalent for removing it japan and germany from the global economy. we also have technology. those are outcomes we would like to avoid. haidi: there are so many facets to the china recovery story. we see the short-term lift when it comes to high consumers, demand for services, and weak spots as well. are you looking at the longer

term challenges that are already in play before the pandemic? what reforms would you be urging be prioritized? steven: that's a great point. there is one both short and long-term. the importance of boosting consumption over time. we saw that two thirds of growth in the first quarter was driven by the rebound of consumption, related to the opening of the economy. that points to the long-term challenge. we know that consumption in china is a funny story. it is one of the fastest growing consumer markets in the world over the past 20 years. consumption as a share of gdp i. finding ways to boost consumption over time would increase living standards and drive growth. the other key in demographic, finding the kind of market reforms to unleash the productivity growth. china's medium-term growth will be driven by the ability to find

market enhancing reforms that boost productivity. haidi: this is the question as to whether the middle income trap can be avoided. are we getting to the point were structurally slower growth will be the new normal for china, how does policy potentially deal with that? steven: as the economy gets richer, and growth was going to slow, we had a decade of 10% growth. now we are seeing growth rates, slowing to it 3.5. it is still growing faster in the world, we can see big gains in living standards, gain in the output per worker. it is difficult, as an economy gets richer, the first boost of growth after china joined wto, was kicking workers from farms

and putting them in factories. the next stage is getting more productive with sectors, within the industry, using resources better. shery: what are you seeing in the jobs market in china, which growth doesn't seem to be catching up? steven: overall implement in china was held up pretty well during the pandemic. there is one segment we see -- the cohort of 16-24-year-olds, college graduates and noncollege graduates, a sharp rise in unemployment. the ratio is around 18%. even though china's workforce is declining. the young cohort is roaming in the next few years. the key challenge is to find jobs for the young in china. haidi: the youth unemployment

number is startling. steve, we appreciate you joining us. the other big component when it comes to the global economic outlook is what happens with the fed and the u.s. economy. we are hearing from raphael bostic speaking to reporters after delivering his speech, repeating leasing he favors one more rate hike and then a pause. saying the policy moves into a restrictive space is working with the lag. we have heard this sentiment before. he calls for mid to high 3% range by the end of the year. we heard from the cleveland fed saying the policymakers will be gauging the impact of the banks tightening what it comes to tightening lending standards. seeing the peak rate above 5%. just adding to the narrative

that fed policy makers need to get their job done, we are nearing the end of the tightening cycle. that there is a consideration as to maybe a pause in the meeting after next. let's get you to the fed right now with vonnie. vonnie: cleveland fed president's signaling support for an interest rate hike. she also flagged the need to watch the recent stress in the banking sector. she says the fed is closer to the end than the beginning. >> i anticipate a monetary policy will need to move further into restrictive territory. the fed's rate moving above 5%, and the real feds fund rate staying in positive territory. precisely how much higher the fed's rate will need to go, and for how long policy will need to remain stiff, will defend on

developments. vonnie: the japanese prime minister says he is not planning to raise the sales tax rate to fund childcare and defensive measures. he vowed to spend children and families. the government is looking to boost military spending. he says discussions regarding funding are ongoing. montenegro prosecutors have filed an indictment for terraform labs do kown, saying they enter the country illegally and were trying to fly to dubai. an official says authorities are seeking to expand their detention. the u.s. and south korea are seeking his extradition over fraud charges. lawyers for actor i look older and saying the tardis he was facing over a fatal shooting on a film is set be dropped. he had pleaded not guilty in the death of a cinematographer during filming in new mexico in

2021. it happened when baldwin was practicing a scene, drawing and pointing the weapon at her. a case against the film's is still pending. global news, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries, this is bloomberg. shery: bank of america ceo says the recent banking turmoil is not a crisis. here more from our interview with ryan moynahan in just a moment. this is bloomberg. ♪

shery: bank of america ceo brian moynihan: says the recent turmoil that had banks in the u.s. has not risen to the level of crisis. he spoke with bloomberg during our southside leaders forum in new york. brian: crisis is too strong a word, and words like that get used a lot. there was a fair amount of disruption for a few weeks, certain as most models were sorted through. on the other hand, we could see the stability and other business models, granular business. you are seeing earnings come out this week, you are seeing things playing out that way. it is very specific as this

models, unique circumstances of the last 24 months have massive amounts of cash put in the system and rates changing. those had to be sorted out. the basic industry is purporting good earnings across the board. deposits have come down, but that is intended by the fed taking money out of the system. maxing the system is what they want to do to make credit tighter. if you look at the capitol liquidity and earnings power, it's been tremendous. that is reassuring, the making system reflects the economy in america, and economies around the world. you hope it is in good shape, and it is, there is no question. >> for you talking with him through this. of time? do you think they should be making changes to make sure we don't go through this again? brian: there'll be a time to look at the pause insurance

scheme. people have opinions of what happened, and it never turns out to be as true as they thought. in the financial crisis, a lot of opinions about how it started, it started in 2006 from what happened during the housing crisis. it took more rational thought to think through the different things that happen. the debate will be, during the financial crisis in 2008, which went on for three years, there was a guaranteed transaction count. that's a scheme you could do. there is savings money in the banking system is there to get rate and return. the transaction money is to help the economy go. the idea is you ensure that more fully, that's what they did in the financial crisis. a scheme like that would have

changed the nature of what went on, people were trying to figure out if they have 250 thousand dollars in one small business. haidi: bank of america ceo speaking with bloomberg's david westin. bells and hong kong taking a look at at investors, the stress we have seen could lead to a credit crunch. we have heard a lot about the fed thinking about tightening credit conditions. annabelle: there was an interview that came up with a bloomberg opinion columnist, he does not think this talk of it being up crisis is justified. what he is concerned about and what he is seeing and earnings in banks, certain business models do not operate well, they are pressured when we are in a higher for longer rate environment. the capital requirements of

they're going to be changing, costs of business going up, that will make it harder for some businesses to survive. is this talk of a crisis justified? he told us about the impact on the availability of liquidity. >> this is not a credit crunch, it is a credit contraction. there is a difference. a credit crunch is economy wide, it has implications. it credit contraption has disk traditional effects. unfortunately that will hit small businesses harder than big business. shery: we have also heard reaction to the banking sector issues in europe. annabelle: this was a hot topic at the bloomberg economy gateway event. bloomberg spoke with blackrock vice chair, he was a former swiss banker, and had good insights into this credit to suisse collapse. he says swiss officials did well

not just by the national economy but the global financial system. he says the question will be how ubs positions itself in the market. we talked to philip about what we are seeing in markets, the expectation from traders at the fed are looking to cut rates at the end of this year. >> the idea that you have rate cuts coming up seems to be optimistic. the central banks know what they need to do, it for them what is different from the previous two generations of central bankers, is that we have been so used to the fact that every time there is a problem, central banks come and ease. now we are in a different environment, they have to create a recession. shery: on central banks, bloomberg economics says the changes being proposed after the independent review would cause a

shift in the immediate rates outlook. substantively is the question, if there was a question being asked about which is impossible to answer, if these changes had been in place, what the outcome when it comes to -- been different? >> the governor was asked this question yesterday. he said if you look at what the fed has done and the boe has done, their outcomes are not different from the rba. it has moved slower compared to them, but in terms of them being able to pick inflation earlier, no. did they allow stimulus to last for longer, yes. he was trained to say that those central banks, who we are looking up to, they also have similar issues that the rba

hatch. he was trying to imply that these changes are good and welcome. he was open to doing them, but he was also saying it is tinkering at the edges and may not have big implications policy wise. shery: tell us about the changes that could come. we are talking about the quantity of communication increasing. will this mean more noise? >> the big one is the dual board, that is really the big implication from this review. the board composition is also likely to change. we have two new appointments yesterday on the rba board. it is looking likely that some of the members of the existing

board will move to governance ordered or step down. there might be churn over the next 12 months. the governor has a timeline of a gear -- a year. there is expectation there will be more russ conferences, board members who do not talk, give interviews, will have to do public engagement. they will have to do speeches as well. more communication will come from the resolve -- reserve bank. we asked this question to the governor, about whether there is worries that this will lead to more noise. he said that is a risk of over communication. we do see that with the fed and with other global central banks, there is too much communication and conflicting views.

that leads to confusion around what is the overall view, which is not the case of the reserve bank right now. the governor and deputy governor are the only people who talk about a monetary policy. what they say is in line with the other communication. haidi: staying with a central banks and the topic of change, this is change that is not happening fast enough. we are more than a century away when we talk about central bank chief agenda parity. there has been some progress being made, it is seen as being at a glacial pace. some central banks have scored better than others. three regional fed reserve inc.'s scored highly. as we see the gender balance, experts showing improvement.

the number of female leaders out of the total of 186, that includes fed reserve presidents in the u.s., is at the most since the institution was formed. it is still one more, that when they counted back in 2014, very far off it comes to reflecting gender balance in the wider population. shery: it is discouraging when 11% of central banks lack any women in senior staff positions. or than half of the 22 women that lead central banks started in their own institutions. it shows you how important it is to build up the pipeline of gender diversity from the beginning. this tally coming from 336 institutions, which include central banks, large banks, funds, managing public pensions.

only 14 percent of them are led by women. every time we have these conversations, it seems to be that the conclusion is there is still a long way to go. be sure to tune into bloomberg radio to hear more from the days newsmakers. listen through the app, radio plus, or bloombergradio.com. plenty more ahead, stay with us. ♪

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shery: the use of solar panels in the automotive industry is on the rise. technology has not advanced far enough for fully solar powered vehicles to hit the market. as we count on to earth day this weekend, here is a look at how carmakers are finding ways to soak up the sun. ♪ >> are solar cars the next ev evolution? decades of work on a solar car moon shot is slowing, seeking a more pragmatic approach. built to subtly augment electric driving. rather than power a road trip in full. the sun is hard to ignore as it never stops showing up. with the market rife with

electric vehicles, there is an auto ecosystem wired for electrons. including a charging infrastructure that would no longer have to do all the heavy lifting. as far as cost, solar panels have become cheaper and more efficient. over the past decade, the price of solar modules per watt of powered produce, plunged by 78%. at that rate, a panel will wait the size of a sedan has dropped to under $50. toyota sells a solar roof as an option on its prius hybrid. hyundai, a solar roof option is available for its sonata sedan. the company is drawing up plans to add a solar panels to the ionic five, it's breakout ev. what about tesla? elon musk has stated he believes the car is one of the least

efficient places to put solar. tesla is pursuing an option for its cyber truck owners to add solar and possibly as unfolding wings. shery: that is it for daybreak australia, daybreak asia is next. we are counting down to a muted start to trading this friday in asia. this is bloomberg. ♪

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>> you are watching "bloomberg daybreak: asia" from sydney and hong kong. >> we are counting down to the market opens. >> the stories, president