>> welcome. i'm simone fox with the first word news. fox news said tucker carlsen, the host of its top rated nightly show, is leaving the network effective immediately, one week after fox agreed to pay $787 million to settle a defamation suit wrought by dominion voting systems. -- brought by dominion voting systems. shares of fox think as much as 5% on the news. change in the media industry, don lemmon said he has been fired after 17 years at the network. you posted that he was stunned

by the news and had no indication it was coming. he was previously taken off the air for comments about presidential candidate nikki haley. russia is showing no signs of pulling back on the crude oil exports. the government insists output has been cut but flows from russian ports are virtually unchanged, averaging 3.4 million barrels a day, according to tinker her tracking data compiled by bloomberg. the country was supposed to begin reducing output in march. his knee began the second round of job cuts today, part of its push to eliminate 7000 jobs this year. the company says by thursday, 4000 jobs will have been cut. the cut straight from headquarters to the espn sports networks in connecticut. global news 24 hours a day, online and at quicktake on bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm simone foxman.

this is bloomberg. jon:. -- welcome to bloomberg rockets. kriti: the s&p 500 trading lower by .1%. it is a wait and see moment. the big game changers start tomorrow the bond market getting interesting. 10 year yield at 3.51, down six basis points. volatility prepping for the economic data that kicks off tomorrow. a little dollar weakness, down .2%. as we are talking about the caution in wait and see approach, commodities are higher

by 1.2%. interesting to see how that will change as we digest the economics of that. jon: energy stocks getting a lift. interesting to look at the performance for coca-cola shares. they were up 1.5% with pricing power with their products, encouraging to investors and margin protection. we have seen the stock slide into the red. a very busy earnings week. we will watch to see the entire trading date how the market reactions are. the market reacting to the bankruptcy filing from bed, bath & beyond, down 39%. one of the other questions out there is what happens beyond this liquidation over the next couple of months? a lot of wall street analysts

weighing in and one suggesting the likes of target and walmart and amazon will get a lift from them closing their doors. kriti: to household names, coca-cola and bed bath & beyond, two different outcomes. we are getting more earnings tomorrow, mcdonald's and the consumer story, what does that mean for the broader story. sarah malik talked about it earlier. >> q1 earnings looked strong and the vix is under. the bears are thinking that 13 months after significant rate hikes, what does that mean for the economy and a tighter credit cycle. what does that mean for the consumer? for safety, we look at companies growing dividends and have quality and tend to be lower at volatility and should be more resilient during recession. jon: the other component out

there is what is the street doing when it comes not to just dealing with the avalanche of earnings but in terms of the positioning, particularly in the hedge fund industry. i want to bring in abigail doolittle who has been more specifically looking at the trends we have been seeing recently. abigail: we do have the s&p 500 of 7% and the nasdaq 100 up 20%. but beneath the surface, we have complacency beneath the surface. when we lift the lid, we see the is a different story. nvidia up. meta-platforms up now hoping they get more efficiency and the workforce cuts. look at the banks, first republic reporting down 87%. zions down 42%. have to know where you are going.

we have a volatility, the vix not -- right around 17. the vix looks out a number of weeks and the new one-day options everybody is talking about in trading. cboe has announced a one-day vix. not a lot of volatility with the s&p 500 down ever so slightly. to make the point, managers and an active manager is outperforming. if we go to the bloomberg terminal and compare the s&p 500 up 8% of value etf of 3%. where we really have the outperformance is all about growth of 17%. earnings will either suggest our tell whether investors have been piling into big tech and whether

or not it is correct. outperformance now and for the active investors a big deal to be in those. kriti:month. the lowest trading range all the way back to 2017. we thank you as always. she mentioned the story of the active role in trading. asset management advisory solutions joins us. we are thrilled to have you. what matters in the earnings season, the top line or the bottom line? >> earnings coming in at the bulk of the rest of the week, over 40% we have seen little companies reporting. expectations be beat based on low spec patients. jon: when investors are trying

to get their heads around equities versus other opportunities in the marketplace right now, does the paper businesses to not be in the earnings spotlight? i know you are thinking more holistically about access to what is happening in the public markets but keeping a close tap on the profit markets. candice: slowly. investing in equities, you need to look at alpha, whether it is equity, fixed income or private markets. looking at alpha is important because looking at heightened volatility and uncertainty, this certainly can help navigate this type of environment. the last 10 years, everything rose because the environment, higher growth, lower interest rates, lower inflation and that led all asset classes to do well, particularly equity markets and tech companies in particular. for the next decade, a lot of investors should be looking at alpha within the equity markets

and fixed income and private equity and credit and other alternatives like hedge funds. kriti: i love that you are talking about the alpha story, especially when we talk about a lot of the tech volatility we are seeing. it hasn't seen a ton of volatility to begin with. are you worried about the tech earnings, alphabet, microsoft, changing the macro narrative? candice: some of the performance we have seen today is technology companies. there are times when beta outperforms and moving forward we think it is a security selectors market. focus on alpha published a piece , the reality of new portfolio construction. from that perspective we think it is all about the alpha in portfolios. jon: regardless of the asset mix, in terms of broadly speaking where you think the economy is headed, for those who are still wondering about the

possibility of a soft landing, where do you land on that one? candice: we are in the same camp, everything from growth, we think gdp growth can be positive but below trend levels. inflation moving closer to 3.3%, core pce by year end and this leads to a fed that will raise rates another time in the may meeting and a couple days and that is another 25 basis points leading to a terminal rate of 5% to 5.25%. kriti: what happens if we get one more hike throughout the summer or two or three, is the fed truly done with the rate tightening cycle in may? candice: we think it could be the last rate hike in this cycle and what that leads to on recession, our probability for recession is about 35%. i realize the probability is not in consensus. consensus is that 65%, but we do see the possibility of a soft landing, narrowing by the day but a narrow path to a soft

landing here in the u.s. jon: as we were looking at the growth stocks in the outperformance so far this year, what are some of the biggest questions you are going to be asking about, the ability for those companies to get back to the story of topline performance even some of the economic uncertainty right now? candice: get the question of growth versus value. i think the out the -- the value stocks can outperform. it is tough to time the market. we know maybe you get it right once, twice or three times if you're lucky. a more balanced approach toward growth and value is more prudent. kriti: you set a 35% chance of recession, extremely contrarian in a market skewing bearish right now. why aren't you worried about some sort of recession coming around, fed induced recession? candice: there is a possibility

of recession, normal in any type of market. the reason our recession probability is lower than other firms is because of a couple of things. we have seen a lot of drag on gdp and we think moving forward with the fed reaching its last rate hike, the drag will be less than we have seen over the course of the last year with rate hikes. secondly, supply chain improvement is another positive factor for the economy. and last but not least but very important is the well anchored inflation expectations of investors is actually very low. the run inflation expectation is still at the low single-digit percentage level. unlike the 1970's and 1980's where it was a long run expectation for 6%, 7% 8%, 9%, we are not in that regime now. kriti: everyone knows i love a history lesson. the global head, candace tse,

thank you. we will tell you what to watch and our stock of the our. this is bloomberg. ♪ when you automate sales tax with avalara, you don't have to worry about things like changing tax rates, exemption certificates or filing returns. avalarahhh ahhh ahhh ahhh

jon: this is bloomberg markets. time for our stock of the hour. first republic soaring ahead of earnings putting a spotlight on deposit close and funding cost expectations. we focused so much on first republic that receive a $30 billion of fresh cash from u.s. big banks, stemming from the

turmoil we saw a few weeks ago. kriti: shares positive ahead of those reports, by 11%. who better to break it all down in hermann chan, who has been all over the regional bank story from day one and he joins us in studio. is it all about deposits? hermann: we expect declines in the first quarter and deposits. what was the pace of deposits in those outflows moderate toward the end of the quarter and are they growing like a some of the banks we are seeing in april? we just pointed to western alliance that mentioned $2 billion inflow in the month of april. if we can get some of the positive vibe coming from first republic, that would be great for the story. jon: things have cooled down.

obviously a lot of people breathing a sigh of relief. but beyond getting the numbers updates, there was a healthy dialogue around whether we would need to see some kind of first republic deal. do you anticipate the company walking us through some of the different considerations they have been making in the last few weeks? hermann: i am sure that will be part of the discussion in the question and answers of the earnings call. they will ask what strategic alternatives the bank is considered and has considered. our base case is the bank will try to forge ahead and continue as an independent entity with the expectation that the posit outflow is moderated and can regain some deposits after they lost after the initial fallout of the failures. kriti: what would you do if you are in the shoes of first republic? how do they reinstall confidence? is this a story of a partnership with a bigger bank or a story of buybacks? how do you bring back customer

base? hermann: you can point to is that the overall industry has stabilized in first republic could have stabilized along with the industry. if you can point to deposits coming back a little bit, that could shore up confidence from depositors that left and may come back. hopefully we will hear some of that commentary. they do have a number of things they need to shore up. the balance sheet has to shrink because of the deposit outflows. we would expect something along the lines of an announcement in loan sales. the bank needs to address employee attrition that has come out. how do you retain the advisor bake is key to the franchise and the bankers. there are a number of things that management does need to address and we are keen on hearing it. jon: thank you for setting us

up. that was a story we are looking ahead to. we were diving deep into the latest from credit suisse and the $69 billion worth of outflows in its first quarter, a large write-down with the wealth management. plenty of reminders of how long this integration process with ubs could ultimately take. kriti: we are taking about credit suisse and ubs and the swiss banking system. i love to macro it out and i will go real macro because as we talk about the recessionary chances, european banking consolidation is a big part of that. a lot of people are asking, is it credit suisse and ubs story, both banks that have struggled for some time, some sort of harbinger for other european banks, like santander, unicredit? do we see that in the european space and what point is it what

people have to pay attention to? jon: how does it impact the rest of their businesses. the advisory revenue for credit suisse down sharply, something the ubs was quite interested in. we will see what happens on that front. big developments in the media landscape. tucker carlsen out at fox news. the primetime host, that news coming out earlier today, weighing on the stock. fox shares down roughly 3%. we will get the latest details. this is bloomberg. ♪

jon: this is bloomberg markets. i'm jon erlichman with kriti gupta. fox news confirming they have parted ways with primetime anchor tucker carlsen. we saw fox stock tumble, down 3%

right now. jared smith covers it and joins us. -- jerry smith covers this bloomberg and joins us. what do we know? jerry: fox nor tucker has said why he is leaving the network. this is an earthquake for the media landscape and the political landscape. tucker is the host of the most-watched -- was the host of the most-watched show on cable news and fox is the biggest network. kriti: talk about the background for the international audience who have is a cash who have not been following the fallout. jerry: this comes a week after fox news settled a defamation lawsuit with dominion voting systems over fox had said on the air, or put people on the air

that raise questions about the voting machines and whether they flipped votes in favor of joe biden which was not true. tucker was among the big names on fox news who are scheduled to testify during this trial and fox settled the lawsuit before the trial actually started. jon: bloomberg intelligence was trying to crunch the numbers on the significance of this news and you allude to it. we are talking about a key program, a profit driver for the business of fox. we saw the market reaction as well. what do think some of the larger questions from wall street will be, given there is only so much we know at this point? jerry: investors are concerned. fox news is a significant profit contributor to fox corporation. to have the host of the

most-watched show leave the network is certainly something investors will be concerned about. fox, if you think about it used to be a much bigger company. they sold a lot of business to disney. tucker carlsen has made controversial comments and advertisers have fled his show as a result of this. that is part of the business where he had created some headaches. kriti: certainly something we will keep an eye on. shares of fox down just shy of 3%. it really speaks to the intersection of the political, media, and other markets as well. jon: and coming as jerry noted after the settlement that was at the time a surprise to investors. you were talking about digesting the earnings story and the economic dead as we roll through the week. kriti: stocks on wait and see

mode until we get more information. the s&p 500 unchanged. 10 year, 3.51. more coverage ahead. stick with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ - super excited to open up my diploma from southern new hampshire university. - i'm nervous. i'm excited. (paper ripping) - [speaker off camera] okay, let's see it. let's see it. - oh my gosh! - jesus g suarez. i did it and it's here. - [speaker off camera] yeah! ♪ - [narrator] next term starts soon. visit snhu.edu.

>> keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world. i am simone foxman. foxnews says tucker carlsen is leaving the network effective immediately. his exit comes a week after fox agreed to pay $787 million to settle a defamation suit brought by dominion voting systems. fox thanked carlsen for his service to the network. shares of fox sank as much as 5% on the news. another big change in the media industry, cnn anchor don lennon says he has been fired. he posted on twitter