>> this is bloomberg daybreak europe. these are the stories that set your agenda. manus: market selloff, asian stocks drop after wall street shutters on the new concern about the regional banking sector. iron ore edging lower amid questions over chinese demand. one and done, traders expect the fed to hike rates by .25% today then signal a pause amid ongoing financial jitters and pressure from lawmakers. plus, earnings season rolls on. companies reporting today. good morning, tom. good to have you on board. sales and trading up one point 91 billion euros, that's up 9%,

and of course the big blockbuster number and the headline for .40 4 billion from a year ago is down to the sale of the west. that has been quite literally a war chest to pick over the bones of anything that's on the scrapheap of thanking after sergio monte is credit suisse. those are the numbers, tom. a very good morning. tom: given the risk we are seeing, once again in the u.s. financial stability risk, increase recession risk, the debt ceiling crisis. what a day for the fed to be making that decision. from the banks to the airlines, lufthansa seeing second-quarter quarter adjusted earnings above the precrisis figure of 750 million euros. the revenues for the first quarter coming in at a little over 7 billion euros, up 40%

year on year. that on the airlines. manus: we will hear from sir tim clark a little later on. he said the front of the cupboard, for everyone seat in business class that he had, he had three to four people bidding for those seats on the london by route. that is the busiest and he is ready to order more planes. the question for our is, is it can be a little more bowing our little bit more emirates. what a good number, debt trading, global banking, lift the revenue. as equity slump. tom: that would re-and use -- reinforced the view of some that european banks are in a very different position to their u.s. counterparts. let's check in and refresh your memories in terms of what happen on the kbw bank index in the u.s. yesterday, following almost 5% as those regional banking

fears reared their heads. are these banks solvent? is there? ? real question mark about this the banking system of the u.s. is in a solid-state, but this does raise some serious questions around financial stability. over in hong kong the pain has been felt, the mainland is closed for holiday. hong kong down 2%. s&p closed lower by full one percentage point. it was the small caps, the russell 2000 that was badly hit as well as the banking sector. european futures pointing to gains of .6%. bnp will play into that of course. manus: i'm confused now because jamie dimon told me to rest easy, there is no systemic problem in banks, but there could be another few shoes to

drop. our guest today says we are all misinterpreting the reports -- the jobs report. the quit rate fell and down went the short end of the curve, or did it tank because regional banks took another battering? we can ask paul donovan why we are misinterpreting the jobs report. oil is dating its nerves, 6.7% in this week's trade, down the most in four much yesterday. it's like a desert out there, morgan stanley cut the rent price. if you think china is going to save you in the oil market, you are wrong. the dollar dropped by .8%. would you have oil as your stagflation hedge? we can put that to a few people today. tom: we need to get going, the

demand coming through from china is not holding up so far. daniel will help us preview the fed tumble, and there's renewed anxiety and over financial stability to dive deeper into the. let's bring in valerie. what kicked off the action yesterday? >> it was a very impressive session yesterday afternoon. possibly ignited by that week jobs data. most importantly, the fbi see, the report out on monday said very little when it came to deposit insurance. this is important because with regional lenders that would be a big help when it comes to their liquidity issues. regardless of the corporate

yesterday it has told us the vulnerabilities of these regional banks have not gone away. notably they are very exposed to commercial real estate. they are sitting on underwater loan portfolios, mostly mortgages. the business model is not viable with a 5% cost of funding with the yield curve this inverted. the one that came under pressure yesterday was notable just in their earnings two weeks ago. they noted they had seen deposits stabilize. even though there was a rosier message in their earnings, the market is reading this that these problems of the regional lenders will not go away until the fed cuts rates and in's qt. manus: the market has price zero hikes in june, and to what extent does today's presumed 25 basis point hike, does it matter about the number, or is it about

the tone and whether it is a hawkish hike or something that gives them a bit of optionality? what is more important, the 25 basis points, or the tone? >> it impacts their cost of funding, it keeps the yield curve inverted, and it makes the business model struggle even further as they have to compete with money markets for an even higher rate. they cannot afford to pay 5% to keep the deposit stable. so it doesn't matter really what the fed guidance is. a 25 basis point hike will make this problem worse. manus: let's see what comes today and the language that is used. the fed is widely expected to raise rates later today, despite the fresh concern over the regional bank crisis and the data overnight showing a softening of the jobs market. let's bring in dan moss in

singapore. let -- good to have you with me. i just wonder what it was that drove the short end. was it the show down shotgun in the regional banks, or was it the jolt stated down? >> i don't think the jolt stayed out was particularly consequential. the labor market is slowing. it's what the fed has always said that it wants to see as part of its mission to cool the economy. it is unlikely to change the calculus at the fomc when the statement is released wednesday afternoon. by all accounts, there will be a hike of 25 basis points. the guidance is not likely to indicate much of a pause, even if there is one. that's because i don't want people to think about cuts. tom: on the earnings front we have another line crossing

through, raising adjusted net guidance to over 6.5 billion euros. the italian linda raising its guidance for the year in terms of net guidance to over 6.5 billion euros. and a lot of attention on the blue bag terminal and beyond -- bloomberg terminal. carl icahn standing by his -- a record share plunge. the claim is that carl icahn's operations are overleveraged, they are trading at extreme premium to the net asset value. that is the claim from hindenburg research. manus: is the holding company that got spanked yesterday,

hindenburg maintained that that 75% overvalued, 200% above its net asset value. we should actually say carl icahn has responded, because this has to do a lot with that he's got loans, the leverage against the holding company. he made public disclosures on this, saying we stand by our public disclosures. we believe strongly in hedging our to mitigate risk, especially in markets that we are living in today. of course that's his initial response to the claim. but there are certain people drawing blood from this story as well that have gone head-to-head with carl icahn in the past. tom: a little bit of schadenfreude coming from bill ackman there in terms of what he's been saying on twitter, that famous head-to-head over herbalife.

the team has been busy taken on the adani group. we will keep the responses coming and anymore reaction from carl icahn and the team on the back of this news. coming up, more on the markets. the fed's rate decision is later today. we will get the analysis. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> i would prefer to do what is called a hawkish pause, not race a signal that we are in a tightening stance, because i actually think the banking situation may well be more serious than we currently understand it. tom: the former dallas fed president robert kaplan there on his bed path expectations. manus: let's bring in our guest, head of global fixed income, hawkish pause, that's a bit hopeful, isn't it? the one thing he doesn't want to intimate to the market at this fed meeting is that they are done with hiking rates. how does he frame a hawkish pause that doesn't induce a convulsing in the bond market?

good morning. >> good morning. i agree, i think that is a bit optimistic. i think we are in for a hike this week from the fed. it will be interesting to see what happens next. we are in the situation where inflation is sticky. they do need to be cognizant of what is happening in the u.s., it is obviously an area of fragility at this point, and is also helping their job, given the funding they provide to the u.s. economy. it is slowing down the access to credit. tom: with all that context, with the financial stability in question, the recession risk, less job openings, the debt ceiling risk, do you expect them to raise and then hold, or are you looking at cuts toward the end of this year? >> our expectation is that they

may hold at the next meeting. think we've got some pretty aggressive cuts that are priced into the curve as a moment. i think that's a little early to tell, but from an economic perspective, the second half is likely to be more difficult given the rate hikes that we've seen. the fed is looking to slow down the job market, we are starting to see that. that's what they're looking to engineer to help cool down inflation. manus: tom mentioned the debt ceiling and of course we have heard from mr. miller, he made a speech yesterday and he talks about the u.s. debt scenario. he talks about the fiscal recklessness over the past decade. he says all this focus on the debt ceiling instead of the future fiscal issue is like sitting on the beach at santa monica worrying about whether a

30 foot wave will damage the peer when you know there's a 200 foot tsunami just 10 miles out. this just shows you how tenuous this is over the fiscal situation. what are the ramifications for the bond market? do you think we have quite grasped the fiscal situation in the united states of america? >> we've been through this before, but in terms of hitting the debt ceiling, we know that it will come at some point early in the summer. i think the combination this time is the fact that we have the elections coming up in the u.s. and you've got quite a fractious political situation. the propensity for to go to the wire is probably higher than we have had in previous episodes. but i think it is a question of going to the wire and it ultimately getting resolved.

but i think we are probably in for a busy couple weeks. tom: is real estate the next credit risk? >> i think we are seeing some issues on the real estate side. there are pockets on the commercial real estate side. so it is something to watch. interestingly, we are seeing noise in europe as well on the real estate side. so it is a natural consequence of rates going up. it is an area of weakness and one has to look at it in terms of credit quality and if you are investing in that sector, be really careful about which companies you're looking at on the real estate side. manus: i love your line, you don't need to be a hero in any of these bond markets. you just need to deliver a

steady return for people like me. you are going up in quality, but i love that you are ready to take up some beat not banks in -- beaten up banks and real estate. where are you not going to be a hero? >> those are the areas of the market that have moved, so i think it is worth a look. on the banking side, we think the larger banks are going to be wary of the situation and i agree that european banks are in a different situation. as we see opportunities pop up there that is interesting. that would be an example of what we like. areas that are maybe a little more difficult, certain industrials are pressing quite tight, reflecting the positive surprises we've had your to date , be it on the growth side,

particularly in europe. some of the evaluations there are looking a bit tight for us. i think if you go further down the spectrum, if we are going into a slowing economy, in the second half of this year, a preference for investment grade over high-yield at this point, those would be examples of not being a hero, particularly as we've got interesting yields in more defensive areas of the market. tom: no need to be a hero, staying in high quality it comes to credit. european banks also looking potentially attractive as well. thank you very much indeed. coming up, saudi aramco seeks to exploit one of the world's largest untapped gas bills. more on that, next. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> let's get to the first word news. u.k. regulators are proposing significant changes in a bid to make london more attractive as a trading hub. the financial conduct authority wants to replace its premium and standard listing categories, making it easier for companies to have two classes of shares, which is favored by some entrepreneurs. the changes being consulted on would remove mandatory shareholder votes, including on acquisitions. we will speak to the director of markets just after 9:00 a.m. london time. warring generals in sudan have agreed in principle to a seven-day truce that would pause a conflict that seen more than two weeks of fighting. it would begin tomorrow.

as the two sides were to -- work toward peace talks. the yuan says the fighting has killed at least 500 people and displaced 100,000. ahead of the fence policy decision today, new data shows u.s. job vacancies fell in march by more than forecast as layoffs jumped. the number of available positions decreased for the third straight month, down from nearly 10 million the previous month. layoffs were at their highest level since december 2020. that's global news powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. this is bloomberg. manus: yesterday oil collapsed by more than 5%, the most since january. so if u.s. economic data increasing fears about a possible recession. at the same time saudi aramco

saying they are in talks about a $10 million gas deal. steve is in singapore. let steel first of all with the collapse in the oil prices, which was really quite visceral. are we running the risk will see another opec plus cut? >> i think overall the drop yesterday is really a representation that the tightness in the market now is expected later in the year is starting to sort of disappear. you seen some banks come out and say that. you are seeing this expectation that the chinese demand is as strong as folks were expecting and also you got the issue of the u.s. possible recession coming back and more banking fears stoking these concerns. molly also have to look at the u.s. where they are in the middle of the refinery maintenance season.

is likely be a short-term thing helping to push prices down. what is opec-plus going to do from here? the role has been to say the market is -- there's much more oil later in next year than was initially expected and will opec-plus act? will the act because of prices or because of a slowdown in the u.s. economy, or a slow down or less than expected demand boost from china. those could be two factors that opec-plus would be watching closely. you also have russia which has been consistently pumping more than what analysts were expecting. their output has been pretty resilient. tom: that is the broader picture around oil prices. what about saudi aramco and this gas deal? what is the rationale behind this? >> we are entering into the

energy transition. maybe oil demand will not be there many years in the future. they want to diversify so they have a good portfolio of energy projects to come and gas will be key for the world. they want to get projects online. it looks like there talking to china and france to make that a possibility in the future. tom: stephen breaking down the picture for us when it comes to that saudi aramco $10 billion gas deal estate work through that on a picture of weaker oil prices. coming up, house democrats working on a move that could speed up a vote hi, i'm jason and i've lost 202 pounds on golo. so the first time i ever seen a golo advertisement, i said, "yeah, whatever. there's no way this works like this." and threw it to the side. a couple weeks later, i seen it again after getting not so pleasant news from my physician. i was 424 pounds,

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manus: it is bloomberg daybreak europe. we have the stories that set your agenda. tom: market selloff, asian stocks drop after wall street shutters on renewed concern about the regional banking sector. iron or lower amid questions over chinese demand. on and on, traders expect the fed will hike rates by .15% rate today, and then signal pause amid ongoing jitters. unicredit boost his full-year profit target after record first quarter. as bnp parabolic fixed income traders defy in industry mood as income thrives. european banks are performing well, the guidance being raised, a record quarter.

manus: the playbook raising the buyback, $500 million. net income up 44%. when you break into the numbers you see that net interest income is the driver for everybody, at 3.3 billion. 44% year on year. tom: for bnp parabolic, this is a thick trading success coming through -- for bnp paribas. jumping over 16% from a year earlier, according to the results coming through which is come through with a very solid beat. fixed income traders defying the broader global doom and gloom around that part of the business.

lifting net income by almost 3 billion euros in the quarter. manus: that has the new incoming ceo, we don't know yet what assets will come on the block, but the cfo can talk perhaps a little more about the strategy and what they might be looking for from the credit suisse unwinding and deconstruction of that bank. he will catch up with the team a little later on. we saw in implosion at the shorting of the curve yesterday, probably more to do with the convulsing in the banks, the regional banks yesterday, taking a pretty heavy not. a little bit lower again this morning.

morgan stanley cutting its rent target by $12.50. 65% probability in the next 12 months, but that collapse by pac west and western alliance, gold is flat at $2000. as you say, where is goldman sachs with their oil call? and that muscular $100 oil in the market. tom: we are on the phone to jeff curry as we speak. kbw index tells the story across regional banks yesterday with the drop of almost 5%. where do you pin the blame, is it on broader sentiment and short positions across these regional banks? a reminder that financial stability is back and focus on the federal reserve on a day they need that rate decision and

we expect an increase. the mainland is closed for a holiday but the bloodletting, futures in the u.s. are pointing to modest gains appoint 10% after the s&p closed down by over 1% yesterday. the optimism coming through when comes to the earnings picture. manus: two good results on the banking side. economists are calling it stagflation light for 2023. persistent inflation could threaten to expose a number of market mispricing's. who better to answer and define stagflation than paul donovan from ubs. good to have you with us. this at a fair representation of what we might get as soon as this year, stagflation light?

what would ubs define as stagflation light? >> i don't think it is a fair representation, to be honest. you got to recognize inflation has slowed and in some aspects of the economy, inflation is absolutely collapsing at an unprecedented pace. if you look at u.s. consumer durable good prices, they hit an all-time record high back in february of 2022, higher than any time in the 1970's. by december we are in outright deflation, falling prices, and we are in outright deflation still. so what we are seeing a relative price moves in the economy but we are seeing some aspects of the economy already in quite a severe deflation episode, which is what you would expect with slowing demand. we are seeing obviously the

supply slump of energy fading very rapidly and what we're left with the fact that some companies are still just about getting away with expanding profit margins and convincing or conning their customers into believing they are paying a fair price. but that is also starting to crack. so i think we will continue to see the inflation rate come down this year, partly as growth slows but partly frankly because the profit let inflation is now coming to an end. tom: with that deflation you are highlighting and zeroing in on in some parts of the u.s. economy, with the concerns about the debt ceiling, how can they justify another move today in the fed? >> i don't think an economist would necessarily justify it but the federal reserve is not headed by an economist. we have lawyers running central

banks and who knows where this is going to end. what we've learned i think is a very economics 101 textbook approach from powell. elation is high, hike rates. there's never been a stop to pause and reflect on what has been learned from past rate hikes. there's never been a pause and reflect that economic that is increasingly unreliable. so the fed doesn't actually know what is happening in real time. we are seeing these problems coming through. if i were running the fed, and obviously have got the wrong accent to run the fed, but i would be pausing and saying if inflation does keep on growing, we will need to do something about it. that inflation continues to fall , -- manus: you are bang on the

money, it's always good to pause and reflect which we are just about to do right now. sit in your seat, we are going to catch up with valerie in regard to the debt ceiling. it's not just stagflation on traders minds. markets continue to channel their inner angst over the debt ceiling. we are thinking possibly june 1. valerie has more of a reflection moment in terms of the history of debt ceiling angst. valerie: we have to look back to 2011 and the debt ceiling debacle in the august month of that year when the s&p fell by 15%, 10 year yields rallied 75 basis points and gold skyrocketed 15%. does our guest see any similarities to 2011's debt ceiling episode when it comes to

the possible volatility of markets we could see come june 1? tom: brief snapshot there of the history of running up against the debt ceiling. let's bring paul donovan back in and the floral acidity of paul donovan on these debt ceiling risk. this is what paul has written in his notes. it is to be hoped that biden explains the situation slowly and clearly, possibly using hand puppets to help congressional leaders understand the consequences of their inactions. paul, they do not understand the risks that they are potentially running up against. paul: i think this is the problem, they understand the political risk around this, but they are prioritizing the political risk over the financial market risk. yes, some are saying we must take a stand on this for political reasons and this is why we have this whole debt ceiling farce in the first

place, but they are not perhaps fully understanding the financial market consequences, the dangers that we get with this constant uncertainty. the uncertainty is an unnecessary cost in the u.s. economy at this stage. manus: but here's the thing, we also have the federal reserve, complexion of the federal reserve that has never been in the scale of the hiking cycle before either. i need to double check my facts, but a lot of them were not on the fed in 2008 and 2009. so we have quite a toxic cocktail. if you have to hide, i know your role is not to give strategic asset allocation advice, but i have known you to give the odd opine. where do i hide? paul: i think this is a situation where you have as a base case that the u.s. is not

going to mid -- commit economic suicide, and i think that is fair. there are options available to the fed in effect, there are publications they can default on before they default on treasury debt. that means i think that you are looking beyond the noise and saying, we've got a period of volatility coming out of the situation. if you get problems in the financial system coming out of the situation, what does that then mean, and that gives you a more conservative credit cycle, it gives you tighter lending standards and it gives you a slowdown. that suggestion within looking at policy fixed income performing more strongly because you're getting an economic slowdown, you're looking at the fed reconsidering its past policy errors and perhaps starting to think about easing policy. that's a situation you're going

to be in. so i think what we are looking at here is not about is there a technical default or problem in the short-term, it's a consequences of all this political noise and angst. tom: paul donovan breaking down the political noise and angst implications for the global economy. thank u.s. ever, joining us this morning. coming up, that we were ceo doesn't see a slowdown is a company shares surge on strong demand. we will get the details and the earnings picture, next. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> let's get to the bloomberg business lash. dyson will open a new plant in

singapore to manufacture next-generation batteries for new products as it ramps up its plans. the consumer electronics giants new facility is part of an ongoing 2.70 5 billion pound five-year investment plan. dyson also invest in r&d campuses in the philippines and bristol in the u.k.. bloomberg has learned that chinese on the clients giant is exporting a potential acquisition of its sweetest rival electrolux. a preliminary approach was made in recent weeks though electrolux has so far not been receptive to the proposal. other asian appliance makers have also looked at the business. starbucks has posted a sales beat on strong performances in the u.s. and china but it wasn't enough to satisfy investors following a 15% run-up in the stock price this year. comparable sales rose 11% in the first quarter, beating forecasts. the results underscore consumers

resilience and paying higher prices for discretionary items like lattes. that is your bloomberg business flash. tom: i love and oatmeal latte and i'm sure manus does as well. that's get to what is happening with uber, shares surging after the company reported earnings that beat estimates and the continued return of drivers to its ride-hailing business. the coo telling us this. >> i think rates will stay higher for longer because despite people predicting recession, it is not there yet. i think that companies across the board, whether you are a bank or a technology company, you got to be super conservative

as it relates to your balance sheet. you got to be incredibly disciplined in terms of capital allocation. tom: let's bring in our tech reporter. why does huber seem to be weathering inflation better than their rivals like lyft? >> as you pointed out, uber does deliver food, and that is part of the story, over has been able to diversify its roster of options for its consumers. as well as that, uber has been extremely successful, luring drivers back to the platform. it said 35% more drivers this year than a year ago. which is meant they are able to keep costs down. lyt has struggled --lyft has had to see costs raise as a result. this is a big part of it. what is interesting is that the new burn numbers are being

driven by consumer demand. they are being driven by uber eats and bite ride-hailing. is less so their enterprise products, uber for business, that's where they are not seeing the same strong numbers they are seeing in the consumer side. manus: we should have a moment here, within oatmeal latte. tom, i've got you down as a more holistic that. i'm just a plain old-fashioned skinny milk. i'm struggling, back on the diet. what do you go for, tom? tom: you change it to an oatmeal latte rather than an o.a.t. latte. the oatmeal latte with the topping of quinoa or something on top. manus: i love a bit of quinoa. tom: bring in abby again, save us. >> a straight black coffee,

although i'm not entirely sure if it delivers to the office in berlin. as well as the uber eats were also seeing they have forced a concern on lyft as well when it comes to bringing people back to the platform. that is also a big deal because essentially lyft has now got a new ceo, it's done the thing we've seen a lot of tech companies do come have to lay off staff and call their other stuff back to the office. what i'm interested in seeing going forward is if lyft says that what they are going to do to bring back there consumers is drive prices down again, what does that mean for these banner numbers for uber going forward? they've done really well in this quarter but if they're trying to still drive down prices, we don't know what that really means for uber. manus: i can tell you one thing for free, if you come to divine, it will cost you a fortune to get an uber.

this is where you live and breathe price gouging in the extreme. stay strong, good black coffee for you and maybe there's a product innovation when it comes to berlin. coming, europe's biggest airline, lufthansa, with strong guidance as travel continues to bounce back. we give you the earnings next on bloomberg. ♪

>> probably on the network, the united kingdom is the strongest the moment, partly driven by the fact that we are not as much into china as we were prior to

the pandemic simply because they haven't allowed us to go back in again. it really is a robust story, demand for all our flights. u.k. is strongest, but europe is very strong and america is very strong. manus: the imuran president speaking to bloomberg over rebounding demand for travel. staying with the iran space, lufthansa is expected their earnings to rise above pre-pandemic levels in the second quarter. what is going to drive that? sid philip is with us. we've got the lufthansa numbers, they are back to pre-covert precrisis levels. what about the outlook, because search him was bullish and he is ready to order more planes. >> lufthansa has obviously talked about how demand drives earnings. while they are still not yet out of the woods, they said earnings

in the second quarter will surpass the same earnings in 2019. that's because summer travel demand especially to places like spain, and leisure travel is basically driving demand and continues to improve profitability for the airline. tom: what is your take on what is says about the outlook for the wider airline industry? >> the wider airline industry is seeing demand continue to grow, despite some concerns about the economy and despite fears about a recession. a lot of it is being fueled by leisure travel. it continues to be a lot of pent-up demand. it hasn't hit -- hit the ball that everyone expected it to, but it will continue to fly. the airlines are seeing demand continue into the summer and beyond summer. tom: a strong outlook on that

demand through the summer and beyond. we are also going to recap what is happening across the banking sector as well. just a reminder for the viewers on the decent numbers coming through from unicredit and bnp paribas. manus: they got fixed income, commodities, and currency. undoubtedly the stupendous number they had from the sale of an asset stateside last year has built out the top line number. just in terms of that, that was the sale of bancwest. that handed the ceo a war chest as it were. the fic numbers trading up 1.90 one billion, up 9% on the year. then the top line net income boosted to 4.44 billion versus a

year ago on that asset sale. tom: those higher rates across europe really boosting unicredit as well. the best ever first quarter, on the back of a surge in revenue from lending -- the italian lender. we will see how that plays into the open here at 8:00 a.m. london time. we will be speaking with the bnp paribas ceo in the next hour. we will get the report from the u.s. and its 7:00 p.m., it's all about the fed. we will leave you with that, the futures for europe pointed to gains of .5%. this is bloomberg. ♪

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