>> welcome to bloomberg daybreak europe. i'm dani burger. we have the stories as set your

agenda. manus: president biden says he is confident a debt deal will be reached. asian stocks extend yesterday's rally on wall street as conviction builds in u.s. -- u.s. default can be averted. plus, g7 leaders gather in japan for a summit where china's war in ukraine -- china and russia's war in ukraine will be on the agenda. it's amazing how they vacillate between doom, gloom, and bust, and you for a. is perhaps a debt deal ceiling done? and that could perhaps push us to the upside on stocks. dani: good morning. a lot of arguments have been made, especially from one mr. steve cohen that that is not what is bringing us lower on stocks. if anything, it is all about the

ai trade. they don't care anything about the debt ceiling. steve cohen said i'm making on a prognostication, we are going up. manus: i think that's my favorite word. the question is how me times can i not pronounce it properly. prognostication. the point about it is, i just had anita gupta here earlier and she said she wants to be long on platforms. its most overcrowded trade according to bank of america. she still thinks she's not going to be assuaged by concentration risks. dani: it's a great point. apple on its own has contributed more than 25% of the gains we've seen this year in the s&p 500. if you ripped out those big six stocks, the s&p wouldn't even be up. every company is claiming these days there ai attuned.

manus: you've got a bit of japan on your board, have you? dani: it's all i want to talk about today really. who cares about the debt ceiling, you can tell what i was going to do, let's go there first. japanese stocks up another 1%. the topics still at the high since 1990. i love this story because it's got so much in it. it's got buffett saying he likes it. since ranks, japan is the only central banks to easing. so many tech players in japan. that also encapsulates the story. you can tell i am excited by it. some of the nasdaq gains, closing at an august high yesterday, basically unchanged

this morning. it's better than the rest of the american futures. perhaps a little bit of debt ceiling optimism in that trade. manus: it was a verbal assault, have a look because j.p. morgan had a call on the bond market. saying pencil and some cuts, inflation is too high. it's going to take 10 year paper down to two point 5%. treasures are still the best hedge for him in a deep downturn. 100 basis points could be had in your pocket according to j.p. morgan. it is not a supply problem, it's not a demand problem when you have the supply problem that you have. india and china are gorging on russian oil, the big customers for the middle east.

unemployment rises off a 50 year low. soft china data adds to the view that you could get along call from the rba. dani: we've got a lot to cover so let's get to our reporters from around the world. stephen engle is in hiroshima as leaders arrive for the g7 summit. manus: president biden express that confidence that negotiators will reach an agreement and avoid a catastrophic default. let's get more with bill in singapore. this was optimistic language but were their nuances in it? there is still a lot of criticism from mccarthy on biden shooting off for the g7. >> both sides expressed optimism, kevin mccarthy criticizing the president going

forward with this trip to the g7 although the president did cut off the end of that trip which was including visits to new guinea and australia. some of those meetings were being brought into japan, but both sides saying they do think some kind of deal as possible. what remains to be seen is whether on the house side whether conservative republicans go along with any deal that kevin mccarthy might reach, but the pressure here is still that early june deadline and the reality on capitol hill is to make an early june deadline, you have to get legislation moving before june. so that's kind of the pressure bosons are working under. they need to see some legislation in the house moving, getting past and voted on, probably by that last week of may. dani: bloomberg economics has a great piece out from yesterday saying if it doesn't have in the second half, u.s. gdp will go negative and get a recession.

speaking of president biden, he heads to japan today for the 49th g7 summit which kicks off tomorrow evening -- even if that trip was cut short. stephen, obviously the debt seeing stuff is really a big piece of legislation overshadowing biden. what is he expecting to achieve from this shortened trip? stephen: they've already achieved within the g7 lots of unity on the war in ukraine in the condemnation of russia's quote unquote illegal war there. i was reaffirmed at the finance and central-bank meeting just last week. now here at the leader summit it's about also bringing in some of these other g7 plus plus members, the so-called -- so-called global south. were talking brazil, india, indonesia, even vietnam is invited. south korea is part of the

invited guests, to bring them onboard board to this vision of security, supply chain resilience and of course war in russia. if anything, this truncated trip by joe biden to the asia-pacific could perhaps undermine that a bit and raise some questions about the white house's position or pivot to this part of the world. jake sullivan was asked about it and he said the fact that it might be undermined is a convenient media narrative. he dismissed that, but still there is some talk that perhaps a shortened g7 without her trip to new guinea, which is a key strategic area in the pacific, ly that china has been courting as well as missing that quad meeting and australia could undermine biden in the south

pacific. manus: let's look at some of things the markets are going to be watching out for. the bank of england governor and officials are set to testify to the uk's treasury select committee on policies at 10:15 a.m.. we will get the jobless claims and other economic data including those home sales. dani: and this evening the central bank of mexico will be releasing their rate decision. bloomberg economics isa central-bank raising rates for the final time in this cycle much when he fell basis points. later today before the u.s. equity market opens we will get another gauge of consumer resilience when we get alibaba and walmart set to release earnings after some disappointment with both home depot and target. coming up, is the end in sight

with the debt ceiling debate? president biden express optimism, but how are the markets reacting? we will discuss, next. manus: and a deep dive into the luxury sector, china burberry sales will be the focus as investors assess the strength of the country's economic recovery, on bloomberg. ♪

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>> what they should focus on is acting in the best interest of americans. why do we want to default? it makes no sense, and so we shouldn't default because it's going to create a lot of issues and a lot of repercussions that we don't fully understand or

know fully about. so there's no reason to go down that road. manus: on the debt ceiling talks as markets rallied yesterday, all the hopes were on a breakthrough that could avoid and unprecedented default. house speaker speaker kevin mccarthy said reaching an agreement this week is doable. scarlett montgomery, i was drawn to this surveillance note yesterday, the view from rbc was , perhaps the most underpriced risk is resolution. what would resolution of the debt ceiling do for you as a macro strategist? >> it's quite interesting because we've had this increasing noise around the debt ceiling, but it's also because

the market has been pricing in this worry. it has risen to levels higher than we saw in 2011. the 2011 debt was actually downgraded. what you've seen is the market is getting encouraged by the positive headlines we've gotten on the debt ceiling negotiations. hopefully it will get resolved and there's not a huge amount of market impact. while we have seen is the front in gets very impacted by these debt ceiling negotiations because that is where the highest risk of default or downgrade is and that's where you could -- the long and rallies because u.s. government bonds are -- people are not worried about the government's ability to pay, is just whether it gets tossed around in the market angst.

the market move we had priced in in terms of the front in pricing and the long in coming down, you get a relief rally at the long end. dani: it has maybe served as a distraction if anything from the ongoing macro debate, that is still simmering in the background. inflation is too high and it will take a recession to bring it back down. it's not necessarily the argument that we are headed for recession, but we need one in order to bring inflation back down and that's what is lead -- what leads us to cuts. what do you think of that argument? >> i completely understand that in terms of what the central banks are banking on. they are needing the economy to slow or inflation to come down because that is usually how it works. in terms of what we think the fed will do, the key is the

inflation piece in the summer. that has been declining since then. after two years of positive inflation surprises, inflation following is turbulence, giving room for the fed to guide not higher anymore. they're still trying unsuccessfully to convince the markets of the higher for longer narrative. the market is right to be focused, in terms of being more dovish in the market, we expect the fed to cut to around 3% by the end of 2023. inflation will still likely be above targets then but in the past 10 cutting cycles, the average year on your cpi at the time of the first fed cut was 5.8%. the key here is that if we are on the path to recession, usually when the economy interest recession, it happens quite quickly.

as inflation falls, they're doing higher for longer, if actually get that, that means market is increasingly tight. manus: what is the consequence of that on credit that? we debate this on a daily basis in terms of cranks in the credit market. what kind of credit is a good compromise in this strategy? >> we are especially. the risk reward is definitely compelling. at some point the spreads being tight, that something you can really point to. that period was a credit triggered reception. it's a bit disingenuous to include that in your average

credit spread. the current spread looks more consistent with historic averages. they have negative returns rarely because spread widening is generally offset by falling rates. the fact that government bonds tend to rally during recession really helps you and even if you look at the credit crisis of 2008, investment grade trends were negative for less than a year. credit tends to do better in the recession because when volatility is taken into account, you're looking at sharp ratios, credit is less volatile. investment grade credit particular, is more hedge against the risk that we get a soft landing. dani: this morning i was talking to manus and i said did you see what happened to regional mac -- regional banks yesterday?

the index was up 7% yesterday, his -- it's best day since 2021. our repast this episode, can we go back to not looking at the price in their deposit flow every day? >> we are not in a systemic crisis. that became very clear to the market in terms of the broader implications for the equity market. i think looking at banks specifically, svb has made investors more aware of looking at banks funding and asset credit risk. risk think will take longer to become priced in. it's more a slow burn on banks profit margins. bank funding costs are now set to rise, so depositors have a better alternative with higher yields and money market funds and short-term interest rates in competition for deposit will --

it makes potential liquidity events more likely. there's also now focus on exposure to high interest rate sectors like commercial real estate and the credit tightening away more heavily on these industries. banks are highly cyclical sector , so while we are not getting these kind of huge risk off events on banks, it is still hard to be long banks. dani: thanks so much for joining us this morning. coming upcoming u.s. commercial real estate prices fall for the first time in more than a decade. will manus and i be able to afford a home in new york? probably not. we will assess the economic impact next. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> i've seen what the company said. the business secretary has made it very clear that she is talking to the european union. she's very clear the government's position is that we want a thriving automotive sector. when you set out very ambitious zero emission vehicle mandates which is more ambitious than the one set out by the european union, when i was here in the u.s. talking to ford, they made it very clear they are all in on hitting their electric vehicle target. their talks are completely aligned to what we are trying to do in the u.k., which is an attractive place to manufacture electric vehicles and also an attractive market for businesses doing that electric vehicle and zero emission vehicle

transition. i think we are aligned with what many of the global carmakers are trying to do as well. manus: that was the u.k. transport secretary there. let's get you up to speed with the -- up to speed with the first word news from hong kong. >> deutsche bank has agreed to pay 75 moon dollars to settle a lawsuit for victims of jeffrey epstein's sexual abuse. jpmorgan is still fighting a suit filed against it. deutsche bank has not admitted to any wrongdoing. a write-down would not trigger an insurance payout.

investors were wiped out during the credit suisse collapse. micron is poised to land about one point $5 billion in financial incentives from the japanese government to help make the next generation memory chips in the country. that will make see chips at a facility in hiroshima using advanced technology from asml. bloomberg has learned that meta-platforms is to be handed a record privacy find by that you -- by the eu. it could punish the owner of instagram and meta-. u.s. commercial real estate prices dropped in the first quarter, the first fall in more than a decade.

the data from moody's analytics show that less than 1% decline was led by office buildings. banks accounted for more than 60% of the 3.6 trillion dollars in commercial real estate loans outstanding at the end of last year. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. dani: thank you so much. on that story that adrian just mentioned, that moody state of finally showing the first drop in commercial real estate in more than a decade. it is down less than 1% which isn't a huge drop, but considering all the fears around commercial real estate, no one wants to work in the office anymore. you have to wonder is this the first crack's finally starting to show? manus: by that classic line from a couple of weeks ago, the boa constrictor around the u.s. economy is commercial real estate. if you click into some of the links in that story, some have

already defaulted on a number of issues. 70% of u.s. offices are vacant and another 4% are up for various leases. you are looking at a gargantuan swathe of america which is not going back to the office. it is a moral issue for elon musk. it is immoral to want to work from home, for him. dani: it was dortch pulling back on some of their frankfurt property because more people are working from home. i was talking to a ceo who was basically saying is not just that people want to work from home, but if they are going into the office, they want a nice building, like the london office of bloomberg, but that is expensive for companies to have that type of building. manus: absolutely. you look at that quote from elon musk, here's the thing, deutsche

bank, one point 4 billion euros in cost to be saved. they will tank 40% of their square foot. that is the best line i've seen in a long time about work from home. what we will leave it there. there could be more crack in the credit facade to come. there are no crack in the luxury aside. i got one for you, it's not from burberry. we will talk about burberry and the numbers they expect. will they follow suit with louis vuitton and be triumphant in delivery of the glowing luxur bridgett is here. she has no clue that i'm here. she has no clue who's in the helmet. are you ready? -i'm ready! alright.

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manus: this is bloomberg "daybreak: europe." we have the stories that set your agenda. dani: president biden said he is confident adil will be reach on the debt ceiling. house speaker mccarthy calls an agreement this week agreeable -- a deal this week doable. g7 leaders gather in japan for a summit where china and russia's war in ukraine will be top of the agenda. we are live in hiroshima. we have jp morgan saying that cuts are the right thing to do. we are heading for recession, bloomberg economics is warning that a recession would be very severe if we don't get that debt ceiling agreement. recessionary bob still swirling around despite the markets not given in.

manus: your cup is to close to half empty. a pro-gun -- prognostication is that if you look down in the deep cuts of doom and gloom too much you will miss the opportunity to belong ai. i am actually pretty bullish. i will put my money down with somebody like that. the underpriced risk is resolution, according to rbc. a quick snapshot of what is going on. you've got a gold supply issue, not a demand issue. the aussie dollar is down, unemployment is rising. dani: running through equity markets, pretty positive here, especially when it comes to japan, set for another multi-decade high. warren buffett likes it. the more important question this

morning, you know it is my birthday this weekend. what luxury goods did you buy me and what should i expect in the mail? manus: i'm not very good with online. an absolute haven of louis vuitton, an entire luxury avenue. dani: next time you are there pick me up some loafers as a birthday present. meanwhile, we are almost done we see luxury goods earnings. they have been really strong and burberry will be one of the last to unveil earnings. analysts will be on the lookout for any signs of cooling appetite in china for after strong performances from rivals. let's bring in an investment director of luxury equities.

after this you can give manus some advice as to what to buy me. just on that point about china, the results have been really strong based on the chinese consumer. can it continue? >> in fact i think it is about to accelerate, given that we are about to enter the second quarter of the year, in terms of the next reporting. that was a week is quarter of the year here, given that was a period when shanghai went through extensive locket downs -- lockdowns. comparisons keep getting easier as the year continues, especially into the fourth quarter of the year, when the whole country basically caught omicron and luxury shopping was the last thing on anyone's minds. clearly the outlook for the chinese consumer to recover remains biggest upside driver in our view of the recovery and share prices as well from here. manus: good to see you this morning. you would actually say, you've

looked at some of the reports, that we think that the from china will rise by 25-30%. just showing some of the big companies there that have presence on shore in china. you say this is say critically important differentiator to the companies that you want to pick. >> if we set the stage back to 2019, the chinese consumer made up a third of the sectors revenues, according to estimates. what has happened in the last three years is coming chinese people have not been able to travel abroad to the same extent. there were 140 million outbound chinese trips in 2019. the equivalent figure in 2022 was 8 million. some brands don't have a footprint in china for that substitution effect.

in the last 18 months within china the sentiment has been soured by the on-and-off lockdowns. 2022 was a first year in over a decade when domestically the luxury market declined. both those factors which of caused such a depressed attitude and chinese luxury spinning have reversed now. the chinese are able to travel freely as well as there being no more lockdowns. the return of overseas travel is happening gradually, gradually perhaps to europe than the rest of asia where is picking up steam. those are significant catalysts that suggest that consensus expectations are too muted. dani: one of our producers is the fashion guru of the newsroom. i sent her this clip, talking about the fact that 20-25 euros are lining up at van cleave's to by jury.

i want to know what 20-year-old has disposable in tom to buy van cleave. -- income to buy van cleave. >> it's an interesting feature of the sector, for the last decade that it is progressively getting younger. the average age used to be in their 30's are early 40's. that hester manically change. millennials are estimated to be in the early 20's when they buy their first luxury item. gen z, even younger. through expanding categories, you can buy a video game introduces you to the brand when you're a teenager and when you're older and have more disposable income, you might buy physical product from the brand. another interesting feature is the role that inflation is

playing at the moment. and how younger consumers are shifting their purchasing behavior into categories perceived to have a higher resale value and that can hold their own in an inflationary period. jewelry for millennia has held that position which contributes to a strong momentum at the time. as well as the fact that jewelry has not taken prices up to the same extent that perhaps other luxury categories ham in the last three years. if you look at a chanel handbag, it is roughly 35% higher in price today than it was in 2019. the jewelry companies brands and offers look better valued and they have not stretched the pricing muscle to the same extent. manus: one of the new indexes we have here at bloomberg is on 50 of the most traded luxury watches in the secondhand market. i will catch up with the

sotheby's ceo next week, and one of the debates is between hard luxury and soft luxury. from an equity exposure point of view, how does that come down? when you look at the whole market, how do you see that hard end of luxury performing going forward? do you think the supply constraints loosen? >> think mr. rupert alluded to it himself on the conference call that it needs to come down. some of the premiums the same models for fetching in the resale market at a preposterous premium to the first 10 retail price suggested somewhat of a bubble. it is probably healthy for the market overall that this is coming down. there is still supply and demand mismatch for the top brands, that is undeniable.

if you want to buy a rolex today, you still have to wait 12-18 months. there will likely be a premium to be paid in the resale market. it won't be as elevated as it was historically because that was distorted by various factors. the watch business has recovered dramatically but i really think jewelry is going to be key going forward for that brand. dani: the chair was lamenting the idea that the secondhand market has just been crazy and needs to come in. why is that good for these companies? isn't there a degree that as long as the secondhand market is selling for what it is selling for, they can slowly raise prices and no one will notice. >> their policy has always been

that it can -- it suggest they are significantly underpricing a retail offer in they don't want to dramatically increase retail prices straight out of the gate from one year to the next. they are not trying to make the numbers for the next quarter because there are no public investors to satisfy. they are more concerned about the durability and longevity of demand than a short-term blip. manus: i will leave you with this thought, there is not a rolex to be had, to physically be bought in any of the outlets that i went into. i will make that admission, not one rolex was available and a don't qualify for the list to actually get one because i hammond spent enough in the shop.

that's what you call mystical, magical premium that the world aspires to. just say one thing i have to get her in a luxury brand. what is the one get me for dani? >> i will take my cues from mr. rupert and suggest something from cartier which is apparently what one of his friends daughters wanted and didn't get. therefore she was worried about what she did wrong in order to not deserve it. dani: i will take a cartier, i'm very happy with that. feel free to send it in the mail. manus: you have given her far too much food for thought. coming up, we will talk about g7 leaders in japan.

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baby i hear one every night... every night. okay. i'll work on that. save 50% on the sleep number limited edition smart bed. plus, special financing. only at sleep number. manus: this is bloomberg "daybreak: europe." the g7 leaders meet in hiroshima, one sizable economy that hasn't been invited to the gathering, south africa. this year south africa is -- japan is inviting the south africa union. dani: allegations are strongly denied. let's get over to jennifer on this. what else are we monitoring here

when it comes to relations between south africa and g7 members, particularly the u.s.? >> in particular when it comes to the g7, what we are hearing from the south african government is nothing to see here, the african union is representing the continent at this point in time. in particular, when it comes to the fallout after last week, there is still a lot that we are paying attention to. in particular, the situation between the ambassador and the ruling party here. on wednesday we saw the ambassador met with the ruling party to talk about whatever concerns that he believes he had to make that certain claim. we are still waiting to really hear where that came from and the president here in south africa is actually still waiting to appoint a retired judge to look into some of these claims. still a lot of concern about where this even came from. in particular, what it could mean for the relationship between south africa and the

u.s. the u.s. is south africa second-biggest trading partner so it could put this economy even more into a detrimental place than it already is. we are hearing that from the business community here who has expressed a concern about the government not taken a more definitive stance against the ukraine-russia war. a quote from the president on this specifically, he said he does not want to accept that are not aligned position favors rush above other countries, nor should we accept that it imperils our relations with other countries. still a lot to look out for, especially leading up to the brick summit which russian president vladimir putin is supposed to be attending here in august. manus: that will be an interesting one if he touches down there. good to see you this morning. how does the weapons row complicate what has been a difficult few days for south

africa? it is in a spat with the u.s., isn't it? >> it just answer what was already a precarious situation here in south africa. we've been reporting this for a while, the issues around power outages and unemployment going up 31%. inflation has been a concern. there has been ventilation -- endless cement power sites. there is worry that any sort of geopolitical tensions risks further complicating this economy. there is really a concern about not clarifying the position that south africa is taking. could the economy potentially tank or falter even more? we will get more data from the south african reserve bank, who are in a difficult situation because they want to strengthen the ranch. any situation or position they take could potentially hit back on the rand witches had a

difficult past few days. it's really a tough time here for the south african economy, just about a year before presidential elections here. a lot of criticism toward the ruling party at this time. manus: let's get the business flash, to hong kong for the latest. >> bloomberg has learned that meta-platforms was headed -- handed a record privacy fined by the eu. the commission that oversees to e.u. operations of both silicon valley firms will punish the owner of facebook and instagram for failing to present -- protect user data. china's post-pandemic reopening has seen tencent grow at the fastest pace of revenue growth in more than a year. sales rose 11% in the first quarter but net income fell

short of projections. his plan to integrate artificial intelligence is now likely to be a focus for investors. cisco shares fell after orders declined 23% in the past quarter. the ceo said the difficult economic environment contributed but the company still raised its sales forecast s8 page improved -- and improve supply chain to improve demand. that is your bloomberg business flash. dani: adrian wong in hong kong there. coming up, we will look ahead to easyjet earnings. we will talk about that next, on bloomberg. ♪

dani: welcome back. it's "daybreak: europe." i'm dani burger in london and manus cranny is in dubai. let's look at the key things we will be watching out for today. officials are set to testify to the u.k. treasury select committee around 10:15 u.k. time. accelerating wage growth data out this week is expected to be the focus. then the deputy governor will be in attendance and we will get u.s. jobless claims and other economic data. manus: later this evening the central bank of mexico will announce their rate decision. raising rates for the final time this cycle seems to be the narrative everywhere.

later today we get the u.s. equity market open. after targets results last night. investors will get another gauge of the u.s. consumer resilience. we are also watching for airline earnings from easyjet in just a few minutes. summer demand will be the key focus when it reports its numbers. let's bring in our resident global aviation reporter, good to have you with us. what are we looking for with easyjet? >> we are basically looking to see any commentary on summer demand. the company has already talked about how they will exceed $260 million in profit and analysts are already updating the forecast since a company came out with a trading update in

april. the expectations are now that it will exceed 342 million dollars for the full year. so we are looking to see with the guidance might be, especially on summer and beyond summer, whether the demand is here to stay or whether summer travel is a blip. dani: reckitt down between the easyjet, the budget airlines of the world, and others. we were talking about a story from singapore air that's going to pay employees and eight month bonus. it looks like people are still willing to pay for plane tickets. >> travel has been rebounding since 2022. that is really key to what goes on. carriers are talking about how demand is soaring. carriers like easyjet have

brought back capacity faster than some of the network carriers, so they've been able to cash in on demand. we will see how they go from here. manus: just quickly, we caught up with the ceo of emirates and he said he is ready to order more planes. are going to face more shortage of planes? >> there are essentially two manufacturers, airlines have placed orders and the order books are full until the late 20 20's or early 20 30's now. there is such big demand for planes that is soaring and they cannot make them fast enough. dani: sid phillips there on

soaring demand. we will get easyjet numbers in a few minutes. coming up in the next program, the chief executive of easyjet will be joining us to discuss the details. did you see the story, record rent in manhattan, brooklyn, all of them. median rent right now is $,241. manus: that out bids the pace of my rent story. the question is for easyjet, will he pay his staff when he for weeks pay as a bonus? will put that question to him on bloomberg markets europe.

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anna: