>> welcome to daybreak

australia. annabelle: counting down to asia's major market opens. shery: the top stories this hour. a u.s. debt deal remains elusive as talks in on, officials signal talks remain at an impasse, with no new meetings planned. u.s. stocks fall and bonds fluctuate as investors wait the risk of a default. republicans challenged the treasuries june 1 exudate. it could be signaling further tightening to come, the kiwi dollar volatility surging ahead of the decision. u.s. futures muted early in the asian session, after we saw u.s. stocks pressured. had the volatility about progress in debt talks. there was a lot more pessimism than yesterday. just coming off of those

comments, from president biden, from house speaker carthy, that they would try to speak every single day. we have not seen meetings schedule, that is sending investors anxiety through the roof. we have solid economic data, new-home sales are the highest in more than a year. business activity growing by the most in over a year. treasury markets were mixed. despite the fact we had uncertainty over the debt ceiling, we did see oil prices gaining ground and markets listening to what the saudi energy minister had to say when he gave the warning to short-sellers in the asian session. haidi: u.s. has bigger kevin mccarthy says the two parties have yet to reach a deal to avoid a default. no more meetings have been planned yet. we have the latest in washington.

where are we at, when we heard from the house speaker yesterday, he said there would be talking every day until a deal was done. guest: it is mixed signals at best. we had republican negotiators coming out of the talks and making the point that substantial movement needs to be made on the democrat side. they used the word impasse. they said there aren't any other meetings set up for the moment. at the same time, they said some essential progress has been made on key topics. he made a point that they are not going away. the door appears to be open for ongoing talks. we are getting closer to the x-date. markets are getting jittery, i

think over the coming days, investors will want to seek more clarity. shery: topping 6%, you said, there is a questioning of the exudate, how concerning is it that the talks could drag on and we might eventually get to an accident? guest: two things going on, you have the republicans who were scheduled -- skeptical about treasury. they are talking about estimates suggesting the treasury could keep things going on for later into june, giving more time for the talks to go on. we have the white house in the mix, reporting that the treasury send out a memo to all of the agencies, making sure they are getting their calculus is correct in terms of how long they can keep things running in terms of money. there is a view that the white

house might like to string this out until mid june, when the next big tax payments are due. both sides are dancing on the edges. the sooner we get to the x-date, global markets focus will sharpen on this. we have been in this gray zone, everybody expects there will be an outcome. the closer we get to the date, it is apparent both sides are locked in, we will see more volatility around the story. shery: the backdrop of increased monetary policy uncertainty around the world, tightening conditions and now the reserve bank of new zealand expected to raise rates for a 12th street meeting. as a sticky inflation keep it on a tightening path. kathleen hayes has the latest.

it is a close call, especially given how big the budget was? >> the budget makes a formidable difference in terms of the expectations for what is going to happen at the reserve bank of new zealand. they have been on a rate hiking path, 12 meetings in a row, that is quite a track record. inflation is still well above, not only its target of 2-3%, but well above the official cash rate. 18 of 21 economists surveyed see a 25 basis rate went hike. the budget, much more expansionary than expected. it has a lot to do with the rebuild in new zealand after cyclone gabriel hitting the north island of new zealand so hard, all kinds of

reconstructions needing to be done that will carry out over the year. that will be a lot of spending. people were worried about the rate hikes, things might slow down, go into a recession. a big migration wave. an inflow of 100,000 is expected over all, adding 2% to the population. when you have a lot of new workers in your country they buy a lot of stuff, they pay a lot of rent, they buy houses. you are supposed to keep the economy going, necessitating the rate hike. haidi: some economists were predicting 50 basis with that happen? guest: you can't rule anything out. the soaring immigration is one of the reasons why people are saying, maybe they will say 25 is not enough, let's be more

preemptive. sticky inflation, it has come down a bit. it is down to 6.7%. it is not coming down quickly. there was a 50 basis point hike in april. td securities raise their forecast for a 25 basis point height -- basis point hike to 50. the rv and said --rbnz from the get-go. they have to update their economic forecast. they could also see a higher terminal rate. what if they move that up? at the very least, everyone agrees that they will leave the door open to higher rates. maybe not so much if they do 50. the tilt will be more towards the tightening, towards the hawkishness, then pulling away just yet.

haidi: let's get to a look at the volatility when it comes to the kiwi. annabelle: a few different ways we can slice and dice that. let's take a look at implied overnight volatility on the currency which has surged to north of 18%, the highest amongst currencies in the g10 space. one year risk reversal shows that options is bullish since january of last year. we are looking flat, we saw weakness coming through the dollar strength is the biggest story. when you look at the different factors, it shows that traders are positioned for of big move in the currency following the decision. if we do get another hawkish tilt, that will be saying that support for the kiwi dollar against its aussie counterpart in the near term.

let's take a look at the equities space. we are being guided by the moves in the u.s., the debt talks that are dragging on. we see kiwi stocks online to the downside, futures as well. shery: let's get over to vonnie quinn the first word headlines. >> china's new ambassador to the u.s. has acknowledged challenges in relations between beijing and washington as he arrived he says he intends to engage with americans and properly handle sensitive issues, including taiwan. he has served in several roles at the embassy in washington and was beijing's top were presented in hong kong. >> at present, china-us relations is facing serious difficulties and challenges. we hope that the united states will work together with china to

increase dialogue, to manage differences, and also to expand our corporation so that our relationship will be back to the right track. >> pakistan's former prime minister has one bail until june 8 and a multiple cases from an anti-terrorism court. it is a temporary respite that might help calm his supporters and cool tensions with the military and the government. he faces dozens of charges, including graft, hiding assets and insulting a female judge. he has denied all wrongdoing. on top of sterling defense official says bloated u.s. we are perceived is delaying the technology sharing component of the security deal. speaking at a panel in washington, he blamed a permafrost layer of middle-management in the u.s. government. he says export controls and regulations stand in the way on cooperation.

bloomberg learned that ron desantis will announce his 2024 presidential campaign in a twitter spaces livestream with elon musk. he will speak with musk on wednesday, and will release a launch video. it will set up a confrontation with the front rotor donald trump for the party's nomination. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. this is bloomberg. haidi: counting down to the rbnz rate decision. we speak with anz bank. we are asking advisors capital management how they are navigating this environment. this is bloomberg. ♪ is he hailing a ride to the concert hall?

no. he's making sure his portfolio and retirement plans work in harmony. they want to adopt a child and build a new home. so they're talking numbers with their merrill adviser. she's not researching her next role. she's learning how to handle market ups and downs without the drama. personalized advice so impressive your money never stops working for you with merrill. a bank of america company.

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>> both sides know there needs to be a bipartisan deal, it will be a compromise, i think we will get the debt ceiling race. >> no keel -- no deal gets done until everybody walks away from the table at least once. we are doing this in a global environment with a lot of media. i think the debt ceiling will be yesterday's news. >> we are worried about the debt ceiling, but i heard reassuring

comments from president biden and speaker mccarthy. i think these guys know what they are playing with. >> my hope is the other four times we were in the situation in my lifetime, that we stop laying games, if we are doing that, i believe there is a solution in here. the longer we take, the worse it will be. shery: shery: commenting on the debt ceiling impasse, our next guest says the long-term risks to u.s. equities is low. always great to have you with us. we have seen the market impact when it comes to the treasury space. this chart for our viewers showing how investors have been demanding higher premiums, especially those at the highest risk of default. you can see the divergence right there. what assets are you watching in

the next few weeks? is there anywhere to hide? guest: we are positioned on the fixed income side in a longer duration. we are not exposed to this kind of volatility. on the equity side, our view is that the most likely outcome is they will get the situation resolved at some point relatively soon, probably at the 12th hour. what is going to drive equity valuations is more. there we end up in a recession, it either in the u.s. or globally. that is what is going to determine how quickly companies can grow their sales and deliver higher earnings, that will drive lua shins of of those stocks that we care about. shery: we are feeling stress in the candidate -- the credit space. when will that start translating into impacting the equity space, when we continue to go higher,

we are being pressured because of the uncertainty over the debt deal. it has been up this year. guest: that is exactly right. that recession risk is a real concern for a lot of companies who have outstanding debt, higher rates, if they have to refinance, the becomes a struggle. when we are selecting companies to put in the portfolios, we are trained to look at companies that have solid balance sheets, have debt that will not roll over immediately, or they can handle it. it is not an easy market, one does not want to be everywhere in this situation. it is important to look for solid balance sheets, the cash flow, and companies that can be resilient in the face of a recession. haidi: a big chunk of the gains we have seen across the u.s. equities for the s&p 500 has been due to ai. is that still a theme that you invest in?

guest: we have been looking at ai for a while. we bought nvidia some time ago because of their critical role in providing accelerator chips that make ai training models possible. it is massively intensive. what investors are seeing is how much ai cannot raise productivity for the users. whether that is health care, industrials, consumer-products. we do think that the onset of recognition that ai will power productivity gains and increase margins is an opportunity for investors. we like companies in the industrial space, but also tech that are enabling this. whether it is broadcom, nvidia, or some of the more established companies. haidi: one of the other named is

biontech, what do you like in health care? guest: biontech is a challenging stock for folks who have held that, we bought her a long time ago before the surge. it had a great inflow of cash because of the covid vaccine. they are able to use the cash to fund their other programs what excited us about the company was not just the covid vaccine potential, but also the platform that can be useful in so many other vaccine development. whether it is a uniform flu vaccine, cancer vaccines. we like these platform companies, rather than betting on a particular drugs. we are looking at the picks and shovels, these are committees that provide analytical

equipment that enable discoveries in pharmaceuticals. we think there is growth there because of the way the demographics of the world is changing, it is a long-term growth opportunity. the clients care about what is going to happen this week and next month, but what they -- what their portfolios can do over the long term. haidi: you can get a roundup of the stories you need to know in today's addition of daybreak. you can customize those settings so you get the news on the industries and assets that matter to you. this is bloomberg. ♪

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>> watching the rbnz, poised to

deliver another rate hike, expecting the decision in three hours. we will be getting first quarter retail sales numbers for new zealand. india's modi is said to have talks in australia. last night, the two leaders shared a different stage, basking in an aberration most politicians dream of. thousands of indians travel to acidity stadium to welcome him for his first visit to australia in nine years. >> the crowd started arriving in sydney hours before india's prime minister was due to speak. today modi was getting the

rockstar treatment. >> i said to my friend the prime minister, the last time i saw someone on the stage was bruce springsteen, he did not get the welcome that prime minister modi has got. [applause] prime minister modi has surpassed -- is the boss. >> the 16,000 strong crowd underscoring his public appeal, despite his party losing a crucial state election this month. [applause] the indian community is australia's fastest growing diaspora, 21 sentence counted over 700,000 of indian descent, 2.8% of australia's population. a visit from modi is not just excited for them, but forrest really a as well. >> it is the fifth largest

economy. and the largest youngest population of the country, and one third of the publishing is middle-class. -- one third of the population is middle-class. >> the imf considers india a bright spot in the global economy. the world bank believes that if there is any country that is challenging mobile headwinds, it is india. >> india is australia's fifth largest trading partner. a warm political and defense relationship and numerous other areas of joint interest, it is a partnership poised for growth. shery: a quick check of the latest business flash headlines. gqg partners is increasing its

stake in the adani group i 10%. he says the company wants to become one of the conglomerates largest investors. they bought $2 billion worth of shares in march, helping the adani group whether the drought caused by the hindenburg report. it is worth $3.5 million. netflix is bringing its account sharing crackdown to the u.s.. it has alerted customers that they must pay an extra eight dollars per month if they want to share their passwords with people outside their households. netflix's crackdown began in latin america last year as part of its strategy to generate more revenue from users. dominion bank has been sued by first horizon shareholders. they allege that td bank made knowingly false statements at an acquisition deal will go through

this year. despite problems getting regulatory approval for -- first horizons stock tumbled. look at how currencies are trading at the moment. we had haven by income a the u.s. dollar has more room to strengthen, the market is estimating. the japanese yen at the moment is holding at 138, trading within a narrow range after it touched the weakest level this year. we moved out of the city so our little sophie could appreciate nature. but then he got us t-mobile home internet. i was just trying to improve our signal, so some of the trees had to go. i might've taken it a step too far. (chainsaw revs) (tree crashes) (chainsaw continues) (daughter screams) let's pretend for a second that you didn't let down your entire family. what would that reality look like?

well i guess i would've gotten us xfinity... and we'd have a better view. do you need mulch? what, we have a ton of mulch.

>> u.s. host bigger kevin mccarthy says the two parties have yet to reach a deal to

avert the u.s. default. other top lawmakers saying no meetings are planned. mccarthy has told republicans that debt limit talks have a distance to go and urge them to stay united on proposed spending cuts. another gop lawmakers says it is unclear what happens next. tiktok ceo shou zi chew says oracle has begun a review of tiktok's source code. his team is developing a european version of this local hosting initiative. it is designed to allay fears of sensitive information reaching the chinese government, with data centers in ireland and norway. >> tiktok is not available in mainland china today. the chinese government has never asked us for qs user data, and we will not provide it, even if asked. >> saudi arabia has issued another warning to

short-sellers. the 23 nation bloc will review output for the second half of the year with amy in june. consumer forecasts and policies are causing volatility. >> speculators -- i keep advising them. >> global news, 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. this is bloomberg. shery: billionaire investment banker moel is expecting inflation to remain higher as a result of the war in ukraine. the fed is likely to stay aggressive. he spoke exclusively to bloomberg. >> the last time we had inflation, there was a big debate.

the united states was in the vietnam war, and there was a lot of choices to be made. i think people underestimate how inflationary it is to conduct policy at home and war. inflation is going to stay higher for longer, and the fed is not going to ease. >> no cuts from the fed is what you are expecting. >> i expect them to continue to be aggressive. >> are you expecting a credit crunch? >> i think credit is tough. it is hard to get credit. it will continue to be hard for a while. i don't know if there will be a credit crunch. >> what do you worry most about? >> the continuation, the

continuation of the war is something in the background. it is not front and center in the conversation. in the 70's, when we had inflation, it was the topic. no one is discussing it as a fundamental driver of fiscal policy that results in inflation. i think it is one of those things that needs to be -- it will continue to drive inflation. >> how much should we worry about the debt ceiling? >> donnersmarck as everybody wants to. it is a great news item. it is like watching any great negotiation. no deal gets done until everybody walks from the table at least once. we are doing that in a global environment with a lot of media. i do think sooner or later the debt ceiling will be yesterday's news. haidi: the rbnz is excited to

raise interest rates. great to have you with us. do you look at the risk of potentially 50 being on the table? guest: the risk of it has increased, we put the risk as high as 40%. there is one domestic commenter who is predicting 50, but it seems to be unlikely -- it seemed to be unlikely 10 days ago. we have a back round of soaring immigration numbers, and the uncertainty of how long it will last and the impact on the economy. it could be disinflationary, or inflationary. there is a lot of uncertainty about what the reserve bank will make of that and also the expansion of fiscal policy.

haidi: how concerned would he be about weakening growth policies and the outlook when it comes to recessionary conditions? guest: there are signs that the economy is responding to what has been a dramatic increase in interest rates in a short space of time. it has been hectic. as you would expect, confidence is low, we are seeing negative sites about residential investment, business and vents been, and the loan market. you have fiscal stimulus with 1.4% of gdp. treasuries forecast underlay the budget. we have the reserve bank admitting that they think a recession is required in order to bring inflation sustainably lower. shery: what will lead you to

upgrade your higher forecast peak? guest: we change our forecast from 5.5, but we have had the budget, we see an upside risk to that number. there will be huge interest in what the reserve bank will forecast. 5.5 is what they previously indicated would be the peak, but it is possible it could go as high as six. i would expect a big market reaction. the market is on the fence between the 25 and d, and the teacher ocr track is murky. shery: what will have the biggest indications for inflation on the economic outlook. guest: some of the increase in spending was related to a severe cyclone which did a lot of

damage to infrastructure. about two thirds of the spending is -- it is pretty easy to shovel it out the door. there is a chance it could arrive slowly and the underlying economy might be weakening. might be opening up more than anticipated. will the reserve bank any optimistic assumptions, given that inflation is still so high. haidi: it is interesting to think about the higher risk of 50. is there a need for them to move today, given that they know -- given that we know that the labor market is likely to pull down wage expectations, given overseas arrivals. guest: the bait about the impact

of immigration is alive, but the reserve bank is on record of saying they think it will be disinflationary. they identified it as an upside risk. the actual affect, we will have to wait and see. certainly upside risk to what the reserve bank is going to be thinking they need to do. we think there is upside risk to the interest rate outlook from here. it is remarkable, given the reserve bank was one of the first banks to hike come up one of the most aggressive and they are likely to conclude today that they have more work to do. shery: how does new zealand's economy compared to the fundamentals of australia? i'm asking because of the elevated kiwi aussie cross we are seeing in the currency space. guest: there are similarities,

the incredibly strong immigration starting to turn housing around quickly. another key difference is the external -- the highest current account deficit since the 1970's. it is not just the reserve bank of new zealand saying they need to cool down there -- cool their jets, -- it is an effective adjustment path. we are hoping for a soft landing. we can't put off paying the piper indefinitely. haidi: would you say the possibility of a rate cut before the end of the year? guest: it would have to be something out of left field. markets are keen to believe this unpleasant episode is nearly

over. history would suggest that inflation can be sticky. the forecast of rising unemployment are still forecast. until the reserve bank sees concrete easing, they are going to remain nervous. shery: always great to have you with us. she new zealand economist at anz bank. we await the rbnz rate hike decision. you can get commentary from bloomberg's expert editors. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ (upbeat music) ♪ ( ♪♪ ) ( ♪♪ ) ( ♪♪ ) -awww.

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>> still no deal get on the debt ceiling discussions that are underway. that is a big source of uncertainty for rockets sentiment at the moment. we are looking at signs of an impasse when it comes to the talks. we are seeing that when it comes to asian stocks falling in line when we saw the overnight session on wall street. futures up half of a percent, seeing a broader session set to see further declines in asia as

the risks start to rise when it comes to the u.s. debt ceiling talks. the aussie dollar seeing an upside against the greenback. watching trading in the kiwi, given that we have seen a surge in volatility in trading in the new zealand currency going to the rbnz.. we are seeing equity futures signaled for hong kong and japan are also sitting lower after we had drops of more than 1% for the s&p 500 and the nasdaq overnight. a positive sentiment in crude markets, oil extending gains to a third day after we heard in the saudi energy mr. warning short-sellers. watching a potential upside when it comes to trading and energy. shery: the market does not yet

price in a bad outcome. he spoke in an exclusive interview with francine lacqua. >> we are worried about the debt ceiling, what i heard reassuring comments from president biden and speaker mccarthy yesterday. i think these guys know what they are playing with. i am ok on that. the structural resistance of inflation to come back down, that is the biggest concern. not at this moment, but as it plays out over time. what does economic growth look like? i have been impressed by the resilience in the u.s., and europe. india is booming. >> if you look at the debt ceiling, are we playing with fire, does it put the u.s. as the leader of the free world at risk? >> politicians have been playing with the debt ceiling for decades.

so far there has not been an accident. every time it happens, given how crazy the politics is, is this the time? the treasury markets are behaving well, credit markets are behaving well. the market is not pricing in a bad outcome. >> there is a lot of money in the middle east, are they after a bank like yours? >> everybody would love to own a piece of standard chartered bank. and we are cheap. if somebody wants to come and say we can add more value to the bank, double-digit growth rates, profits higher, please let us know. we are a global bank, we are adequately skilled for the environment. that is all i am focused on. >> if you look at regulators,

would they be ready for a takeover of a large systemic inc. by middle eastern money? >> there was a takeover of a large systemic bank in switzerland, it happened in one weekend. >> that domestic. >> in the right circumstance, regulators can get things done. it is impressive to see how the various investors in the gulf, i had a panel discussion with the head of the qatar investment authority, a very impressive investor. the various countries in the gulf are accumulating savings and diversifying their economy. that is why we are here, that is why we are investing capital in the middle east. we see huge opportunities to connect. you need to have a bank to do that? do you need a bank like us?

shery: bill winters speaking to bloomberg at the qatar economic form. let's stick with the market risks we heard about. the u.s. debt talks, inflation, some of the reasons why jp morgan is advising clients to further dump equities. annabelle joins us now. the recommendation right now is to hold onto cash instead? annabelle: hold onto cash or by gold. this is the view coming from jp morgan which has trimmed its equity allocation. that is because they say there is a poor risk reward ratio. it says there is a disconnect between equity markets and bonds. and of the risk coming through from the debt ceiling talks. this is the team led by one of

the biggest bulls on wall street in 2022. he has changed his tune. he is picking up on how equity investors are interpreting no potential cuts we could get from the fed, which has been seen by some as a positive for riskier assets. he says even if we do see the fed cutting, it would be in reaction to a risk of event. there is a policy that we could see the fed pausing for some time. that would be something else that weighs on equity markets. in terms of the recommendations, further reducing equity allocation, rotating commodity portfolio from energy into gold as a safe haven, and recommending holding onto cash for longer. haidi: goldman-s is watching the direction of the u.s. dollar. annabelle: they have been keeping an eye on what we have

been seeing in may, and appreciation. this has been a period where traits have been recalibrated and expectations for the fed that we could start to see cuts, that is disappearing from view. and the debt talks in the u.s. have been boosting the dollars haven appeal. contrary to what had been predicted in 2023, this expectation for dollar depreciation may not be eventuated. seeing more room for dollar strength in the near term. the reasons for this is that u.s. credit conditions have not tighten as much as had been feared. you can add to that the weaker activity readings in china and europe. they safe when you do see dollar depreciation, it is usually when economic fundamentals are deteriorating outside of the u.s..

haidi: we are watching the rbnz decision. we have data coming out of new zealand when it comes to retail sales, stripping out inflation quarter on quarter, coming in at a contraction of 1.4%. that is worse than expectations. it extends the contraction of 6/10 of a percent that we saw in the previous quarter. a fall in retail sales mirroring the concerns about recession risks for the new zealand economy. the budget update did give a bigger than expected spending boost for the economy, there are expectations that the influx of immigration will be and inflationary force. hence the expectations the rbnz is not finished, expectations are for 25 basis points, even 50 basis points. we are seeing a depression when it comes to the consumer side of

the economy. more ahead here on daybreak. this is bloomberg. ♪ lomita feed is 101 years old. when covid hit, we had some challenges. i heard about the payroll tax refund that allowed us to keep the people that have been here taking care of us. learn more at getrefunds.com.

shery: a quick check of business flash headlines. alibaba is a cloud division has begun a round of job cuts that could reduce its staff by 7%. it is offering severance to employees or transfers to other parts of alibaba. they are not guaranteed. the moves are intended to streamline business which aims to carve out into a separate company within a year. apple has signed a will to hear will do billion-dollar dollars deal with broadcom to get 5g radio frequency. the collaboration will include wireless connectivity paths and filters that help mobile phones focus airwave signals and reduce interference. the bankrupt space launch company hard to billionaire richard branson will sell for

$70 million and the primary rocket factory for $61 million. shery: take a look at u.s. futures, slightly higher early in the asian session after stocks fell. we had industrials and communication stocks leading losses. uncertainty about negotiations over raising the u.s. debt ceiling, and summer republicans questioning the x-date. we did get some data, new-home sales, business activity, also pricing to the upside. treasuries were mixed. thank you yield down. the 2-year yield staying around 4.3%. sending the dollar higher. haidi: we have seen oscillating

expectations of depending on how optimistic we are about in close to a debt deal. this is a picture of the dollar traits across asia. aussie dollar is holding steady. watching trading directions when it comes to the kiwi. we have seen traders cautious as the rbnz decision looms. watching dollar yen, not much of a move at this white, as well as dollars china seeing a little bit of strength. this is bloomberg. ♪

fabulous surroundings... but everyone's looking at their phones for financial insights from merrill. is he hailing a ride to the concert hall? no. he's making sure his portfolio and retirement plans work in harmony. they want to adopt a child and build a new home. so they're talking numbers with their merrill adviser. she's not researching her next role. she's learning how to handle market ups and downs without the drama. personalized advice so impressive your money never stops working for you with merrill. a bank of america company.

when you automate sales tax with avalara, you don't have to worry about things like changing tax rates or filing returns. avalarahhh ahhh

shery: coming to