shery: welcome to daybreak australia. annabelle: counting down to asia's major market opens. shery: i am shery ahn, the top stories this hour. the s&p 500 enters a bull market as the tech rally resume. initial jobless claims adding momentum after dropping from the highest in october of 2021. heidi: the u.s.-made avoid a recession but may face many stagflation. shery: city has dismantled its global analysis team. we are seeing a little bit of downside, not a lot of movement early in the asian session. this after the s&p 500 entered bull market territory, getting more than 20% from its october

low. it was really about tech resuming those gains, treasury yields were down across the board. we have jobless claims numbers surging more than expected. that stock bullishness among retail traders also returning. hitting the highest level in about two years according to iqyi surveys. we are seeing crude rice is declining in the asian session as well. headed towards $70 per arrow. the decline already in the new york session, the u.s. and iran may be nearing a deal that could pave the way for more crude exports from iran. heidi: our next guest says that now that the targets have been reached, it is time for a quality shift. always great to have you with us. the quality shift, what this that look like for you as we are and that bull market?

guest: the s&p full market, the 20th of percent threshold is a mirage. the reason why i say that is because i get breath is extremely narrow. you so today as well. it has been a story of a few stops doing very well and the rest of the market not doing much. if you take the top seven companies in the index, they account for all of the year to date gains. the other 493 stocks are flat to marginally down for the year. this is not the traditional lish signal that it would normally be. it is actually a point for us because we have reached this target. it is a point for us to move more defensively and our positioning. i am not talking about de-risking we do think there is fairly limited downside here. we also seek fairly limited upside as well.

what that entails is a shift to quality. which means companies that have high return on equity, that are very profitable and have low leverage with low debt to capital ratios. >> so much of the driver for the rally this year has been ai or ai adjacent. do you think there are opportunities there given how much of a long-term narrative this is? ahmed: for more technical people, it is starting to appear frothy. for a longer term investor, this is a space you have to have some exposure to in your portfolios. we seek down the line very huge gains in productivity and profit ability for companies across the board. this is something companies will fit all over the place. as far as the ai winners so to speak, the companies that will directly benefit from this technological revolution, have

to look at it as a winner take all scenario. the big companies, the ones that have been in it for a while, are the ones that will likely continue to benefit. we are talking about the names that we all know, microsoft, google, nvidia. shery: despite what happened today, we have seen tech rally fueled by ai, sort of the last few days. we have more analysts saying we could see a cyclical rally if the recession turns out to be mild. what do you think? >> even in the case of a mild recession, which is what we expect, and what that means is we don't expect the unemployment rate to take much higher. some are between four and 6% is where we expect it to jump to. even in that scenario, growth and defensive stocks will do better. it will not be a quick d rating

downward. we could expect growth and defensive stocks to perform better. shery: we are hearing more, it's coming from chinese policymakers that they want to open up their financial sector. ahmed: we think that the short-term reaction by investors to the chinese growth story is underappreciated. those market are older sold -- are oversold. investors are not fully appreciating the level of growth we are excited to see and mainland china. our projection for gdp growth in mainland china is under 6%, that is by far the best performing major economy in the world this year. what is holding those markets back is beyond the fundamentals. it is negative investor

sentiment, geopolitical risk, regulatory risk, and it is coming from the u.s. and u.s. asset managers. i fear that many of them are fearful of a potential regulatory risk of investing in china. you are seeing asset managers elsewhere, such as in europe, the largest one in europe went overweight chinese equities versus other markets. this is why you are seeing moves happening outside of the world of u.s. asset managers. >> does that mean he would look at external ways to get exposure to the china rebound story? how would you look for leverage opportunities when you take a look at the differing interest rates? ahmed: we prefer the a shares in china, but i want to wait out,

we think this is a tactical play. and it is because markets has become cheap and under owned, and undervalued that we think there is a tactical opportunity. long-term we do believe that equity market has become less attractive. we think this discount in valuation they are currently having, although it is fresh, we think it is warranted because overall, the chinese markets are less attractive place to be. in the short term we see on tactical opportunity to get exposure. shery: dollar strength memo you have seen different views. ahmed: the dollar strength, what moves a currency in the short term are things like interest rate differentials, expectations for growth, monetary policy. but over the long run, currencies are driven by balance of payments. on a purchasing power basis, the

dollar is very expensive. over the long run, we expect the dollar to continue to decline and depreciate, and we think that dust benefit assets outside of the u.s.. -- that does benefit assets outside of the u.s.. japan is a market we like as well. even europe, although i think the cyclical outperformance of europe is past us now. we think over time european equity markets should outperform the u.s. counterparts. shery: chief investment officer ahmed riesgo. we are getting breaking news out of turkey, we are hearing that the president has picked his new central bank governor. this coming at a time when we are seeing incredible pressure on the turkish lira which has

fallen to record lows. we have seen an orthodox methods -- an orthodox methods by keeping interest rates at a very low level. you have seen the current governor heating erdogan's calls for easing fiscal policy. -- regulatory policy. we note this comes after president erdogan just one reelection for another five years. there was speculation earlier in the week that perhaps we could see more orthodox policies coming from president erdogan given that we had heard that banks were told not to do such aggressive fx intervention the market. we are now hearing from sources that state banks have resumed defending the lira once again,

which of course has fallen the most since 2021. and foreign investors hope that turkish shifts to economic orthodoxy. we will see what happens with the new central bank governor. now we have a new name in turkey. let's turn to annabelle for a check of the broader markets. annabelle: kicking off on currencies, we saw a sharp reaction in the turkish lira. today we are focusing on the dollar weakness coming through. because we had jobless claims in the u.s. overnight as well suggesting the fed is going to be pausing at his upcoming meeting. we have seen the greenback trending lower. the yen at the 138.90 level. we are watching dollar weakness, you have the u.s. is enough full market, and also kiwi stocks already online to the upside.

the other big data point we are watching in the session today will be china, given we have cpi, ppi data that is due later. if you bring up the terminal chart we can take a look at the expectations. broadly the indication is we are going to see cpi staying muted, a further deceleration ppi for an 8th street month. the -- 8th street month. a marginal pickup from april, well below the levels in 21 on -- 2021. the expectation is it will fall 4.2% on the year. further acceleration of where we ended up 3.6% in the last reading. an indication of weaker commodity prices that have been coming through, something we have been tracking is the bloomberg commodities spot index down about 2% over the course of this year. a sign of a weak demand coming through in china, and perhaps telling us the pboc is one of

the central banks we are watching, could drink borrowing costs lower to stimulant the economy. -- could bring borrowing costs lower to stimulate the economy. >> some of the world's largest investment banks are distancing themselves from hedge fund manager crispin oh day. j.p. morgan and goldman sachs are said to be reviewing their links with odey as management. the law firm rep scenting him has told he disputes the allegations published in the report. president biden and u.k. prime minister rishi sunak have agreed to start work on critical materials agreement. it could help reduce our makers qualify for electric car subsidies and speed the joint element of advanced evans. biden and sunak -- discussed boosting supply chains and collaboration on ai, quantum

computing and semiconductors. the biden administration is said to be proposing to trade allies that they extend a planned freeze on digital tax services. it is not yet been implemented or endorsed by congress. the u.s. treasury official tells bloomberg the administration doesn't see that happening until beyond the year and deadline. an error in yet really flight has ended in san francisco, ending a six hour journey from new delhi. it's passengers and crew set from the indian capital on tuesday morning. there original air cleft -- aircraft was diverted after trouble with one of its general electric engines. a blink of heavily polluted air covering much of the eastern u.s. is likely to last until tuesday as the impact of canadian wildfires rebels south. washington remains under a very unhealthy air quality alert. 450 fires are active in canada.

the smoke shroud has sent solar power generation in parts of the u.s. pledging by more than 50%. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm vonnie quinn, and this is bloomberg. heidi: coming up, shares of tesla and general motors arising after they announced an ev charging deal. we will get the details and applications later this hour. major u.s.-based announcing a big staffing change. it could continue to face a muted environment for dealmaking. that is next, this is bloomberg. ♪

shery: two of the biggest u.s. banks are shaking up staffing and key divisions with city dismantling as fx strategy team and make of american making changes and its investment banking unit. what is happening at citigroup right now? >> we have reported about two different groups at citigroup getting dismantled. one of them is a group that trades corporate debt from latin america and other one is the citi fx group. they are both getting dismantled for different reasons on the latin corporate debts, it is because of liquidity and a little new issuance. the city fx group is getting pulled apart because the bank has other research teams that do the same job, according to

people that we spoke to. heidi: what is happening in other banks? maria: bloomberg has been reporting about the hurdles that they are facing because of the prospect of a slower u.s. economy. banks have to react, we have covered job cuts at morgan stanley, deutsche bank and lazard, it is not summing having exclusively at citigroup. shery: the latest when it comes to the banking sector, and those changes we are seeing across the landscape. goldman sachs also president and ceo says the u.s. could be avoiding a recession, but still faces the possibility of a mini stagflation. he spoke to us at bloomberg invest in new york. >> there is likewise a lot of

positive impulses. the fact there is cross current, this is the best predicted session that has not happened yet. and it may not happen. we are dealing with a lot of crosscurrents. in our business, that can tend to make clients sit on their hands and be more muted about their positioning. we have tougher capital market environment, it has not been as robust as we saw coming out of the endemic recovery. what i am reflecting is more about the activity levels and crosscurrents, the continued debate about will be or will we not have a recession, have rates that stay higher for longer, until we get more resolution on that debate, will be in a much more challenging period. i can see center is for the second half of the year gets better. we got through the debt ceiling, last week, when i was making those comments, for on the precipice. we have gotten through. that created the lead up -- it

created a lot of angst and caution in the market. that is an obstacle that has been moved aside. now we get to the primary debate, which is inflation. when i talk to our clients, whether they are corporate or investing, the biggest debate i hear is how sticky will it be, and how much is the fed going to have to do to get it down to the target. that is a very hard question to answer. i am not sure the fed understands. that debate will persist and weigh on sentiment. >> how much is the consensus that inflation will be higher for longer? >> i hear from corporate clients the persistence of inflation in the system, it has felt on the supply side. whether it is commodity inputs, you still feel -- the su are pon

pricing in the supply chain. wait treasure remains, it is an extremely tight labor market. i ask myself at night, and we have a recession with 3.5% unemployment? it seems unlikely. at the moment -- the recent job report was better than expected. if you are running a company, you have higher wage rises, higher supply prices, you have priced -- passed along the price pressure to your customers. i sense more concern in corporate offices about whether you can continue to price that way. heidi: you can get a run-up of the stories you need to note to get your take going in today's edition of daybreak. terminal discovers -- terminal

subscores can find that at a be go. this is bloomberg. ♪ woah. ( ♪♪ ) ( ♪♪ ) ( ♪♪ ) ( ♪♪ ) constant contact delivers the marketing tools your small business needs to keep up, excel, and grow. constant contact. helping the small stand tall.

shery:ng semiconductors from next year. this is a critical piece of japan's push become a chip superpower. stephen engle has more. >> the global supply chain for high end semiconductors will soon take a significant turn through a sleepy yet suddenly revitalized southwestern pan. the world's largest chipmaker will open its latest high-end chip fab. strategically located not only because of where it sits geographically because it is not in taiwan. warren buffett's works year half the way recently divested its

entire stake in tsmc, largely because of the threat of china taking over taiwan as u.s. china ties deteriorate. >> we are not looking to decouple from china, we are looking to d risk and diversify. >> that is where japan steps in. once a world leader in chip manufacturing, japan has lost market share to general rivals, south korea, taiwan and land china. the japanese government wants to reverse that, aiming to triple made in japan semiconductors to $113 billion by 2030. >> it was once called silicon island, home to many semiconductor companies. the japanese government hopes that this silicon island can be reborn in the future and that it will be the center of that. >> taiwan's semiconductor is not the only major chipmaker to expand in japan.

the prime minister invited the heads of the major chip companies, including tsmc, ibm, intel, samsung, micron to the g7 meetings to lure them to invest more in japan. it is how some americans call it. >> it is about deepening relationships and diversifying our supply chains. with a greater number of trusted trading partners. >> hence tsmc is also building new fabs in the united states and plans another in germany. >> this attempt by japan to bring in the semiconductor industry from around the world is significant. in terms of the economy and strengthening economic security. >> regional economies like this, the flood of new investment seems like a much needed infusion. >> recent population growth and

rising land prices are among the highest in japan. >> near the construction site are the majors -- other major companies are renting rooms for 200,000 yen, and unheard of amount in that area. >> adding to concerns about resource shortages and worsening traffic. these are problems and new jobs remote japan may actually welcome. shery: general motors said to join teslas ev charging network, creating a u.s. standard. more on the impact for the more on the impact for the industry with and this is ready to go online. any questions? -yeah, i got one. how about the best network imaginable? let's invent that. that's what we do here. quick survey. who wants the internet to work, pretty much everywhere. and it needs to smooth, like super, super, super, super smooth. hey, should you be drinking that? -it's decaf.

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shery: take a look at how currencies are trading. we are watching the turkish lira

as we heard that president erdogan has picked a new central bank governor, that would be hafize gaye erkan. he was a former co-ceo for first republic bank and worked for nearly a decade at goldman sachs. president erdogan has appointed a head of the banking regulator. he is a current central bank governor. we know that turkey has left economic policy and listened to resident erdogan's calls for low are going costs, that has pressured the turkish economy. we are hearing from sources that the new treasury and finance minister will also be meeting with top and king executives week as we hear more about the new lineup for turkey when it comes to economic policy. president mont just got

reelected for another five years in office. let's get to the first worth -- first word news with vonnie quinn. >> chinese regulars have asked asset managers to stop displaying real-time pricing. a source tells us some of the companies will stop offering real time estimates of their mutual funds by june 16. a rolling deadly will be adopted for those. the move, which has been planned for months is meant to prevent day trading as stocks continue to sink. south african president ramaphosa plans to hold talks with xi jinping over the possibility of a new venue for the upcoming brics summit. he is seeking to avoid instigating a -- in case he attends the event in johannesburg. raposo would also hold calls with the rest of the blocks leaders. major airline tokyo gas warns that gas supplies could tighten this winter to extreme weather

or production problems. the situation is unpredictable and prices have probably remained stable due to a warm winter. prices and asia and europe surged at an all-time high last year but have since plummeted. the european union has approved a .6 billion dollars in public funds for chip research projects. the proposals across 19 countries are also backed by almost $50 million in private funding. the eu's chips act says and investors goal for the block to produce 20% of the world semiconductors by 2030. >> microchips are the backbone os industrial competitiveness in a digital world. the green and digital transition requires new, advanced technological solutions. this is why we must increase europe's own chip research, development, production capabilities. >> global news, 24 hours a day,

powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm vonnie quinn, and this is bloomberg. heidi: take a look at the stocks we are watching in the after hours session. tesla and gm in focus on the news that gm would be adapting its electric vehicles to teslas superchargers following on the back of moves by ford. all but ensuring it will become the industry standard and the u.s. market. we are seeing tesla up by 4%, almost the same amount of the gain in general motors. we saw the tweet from -- seven months without tweeting, and now announcing that gm's ev's will gain access to 12,000 superchargers and ends of the indecision among automakers over which becomes the standard. shery: let's discuss this with bob o'donnell. what does this mean for tesla,

how big is the first move advantage, if this becomes the industry standard? bob: i am not sure what the big economic impact would be to tesla, but what this does for the entire u.s. ev business and the infrastructure that people have been waiting for. it resolves the last question, which is, which standards do we need to support? that has been a big problem. we hate having to try and plug something in and not having the right adapter. that is the problem you had with a lot of ev's because there were multiple standards. now with ford and gm backing the standard, by the way, by 2025, we still have a few years. it lays the groundwork for an entire infrastructure of charging stations that could be placed all over the country. that overcomes a big concern that some people who had been considering ev's will finally be

able to say, now i know that i can get access to charging anywhere, no matter what car i have. and i am sure tesla will get some money on the backend. how much it translates to is not clear. it is a great win for the ev industry in the u.s.. shery: this also translates to the fact that everybody wants to get into the ev space. what does this mean in terms of competition for tesla, and how well is it doing now? bob: tesla has been doing pretty well in the u.s., they have had a few challenges. they continue to be the leader. there is more competition, but that was coming anyway. porsche, and a bunch of other companies have gotten stronger offerings. now you have the big players all making significant contributions to the market, but there have been some consumers who have been concerned. they want to be able to have the same level of knowledge about

that i can go into any gas station and get what i need. want to have that for ev's, this will resolve that. that is important. the way to think about it is, it is good for everybody. now the one potential concern that a lot of people had is going to go away. shery: in a similar vein, when we are talking about diversification, this is a huge part of what is going on with the global chip sector. just had our reporter reporting on japan's efforts to be part of the supply chain. you say that global diversification, there is no other option. are we seeing sufficient efforts? bob: we are come up but it takes years and years from the day people announced something. we have heard that in the eu as well. everybody is getting into this, it is unfortunate a did not have

been 10 years ago. but better late than never. it is great to see all of this diversification. it does not have to be one side wins and the other side loses. the potential loser could be china. to see japan, europe, and the u.s. continue to diversify. we are living in a digital world, semiconductors power that world, that supply needs to be available in a lot of different places. we need people all of the world thinking about these issues, solving these problems, taking these components. the creativity and opportunities that become available because of that are going to be great. this is all fantastic news, but we are going to be have to be patient, this is a very long term investment that will take longer than the charging standards to impact things. heidi: you are not bothered by the fact we are seeing chip import values fall into the u.s.. you are still bullish, a lot of that is focused on asia. who are the winners?

bob: to address your firstborn, are there short-term concerns in the semiconductor business, yes. we have over supply issues and other challenges that were pandemic event that put on natural movement into the market. fundamentally long-term, 3-10 years, when you think in that timeframe, semiconductors are critical. they will be powering cars, ev's use a lot of semiconductors, all kinds of devices are using semiconductors. it is essential to do that. in the short-term term, who is going to win? it will be interesting to see how successful tsmc is, the factory in japan, they are working on building one in arizona. the concern about having the right number of employees, because of the environment and culture of tsmc not being a good

fit. if intel can get its foundry business off the ground and get big customers, there has been discussion of nvidia and intel coming together, that would be fantastic for intel. we will see that, then you have smaller players, global foundries, who already have plans around the world. you have other companies, the traditional japanese vendors, samsung is a big player. and the equipment suppliers. they are supplying the machines to build chips. all of those companies benefit. you have to be thinking longer term. in the short-term it is harder to say. heidi: longer-term is the big question when it comes to ai. so much of this year's rally has been based on that. how do you fear -- how do you few fishing view this happening in the next 10 years? bob: i wish i knew.

in the short-term, nvidia is in a fantastic position, that is why they hit the trillion dollar market cap. everybody is looking for what is the next nvidia. it is not as easy. amd, from a capabilities perspective, is the next obvious choice. nvidia has the advantage of all the software work they have done for years. it enables developers, nobody else can match that right now. that is the challenge, that is why it is not easy to point to one company or another. the other thing to bear in mind is companies like microsoft and amazon that we never thought of as chip companies building their own chips, ai accelerators, because they believe they can create their own solution. apple is yet another one of those. we are seeing diversification of all of these players in the semiconductor market that moves

beyond the traditional folks we thought about. it is a broader scope of companies now. that is going to play into how this happens over the next year. you were going to see that different markets are going to require different components, different vendors will step up to fill those needs. shery: always great to chat with you. bob o'donnell, stay on tech, evan williams opening up about 11 mosques takeover in the premier of the circuit, with emily chang. the episode is billable online at bloomberg originals from tim :00 a.m. in sydney. much more to come on "daybreak australia", this is bloomberg. ♪

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shery: you are watching daybreak australia, bloomberg invest conference is underway in new york, bringing together some of the most influential leaders in finance. let's discuss a few highlights and bringing annabelle for -- we are hearing lots of different views when it comes to the health of the u.s. economy. annabelle: this has been a huge couple of days, it is extending into friday. a lot of different speakers coming from different backgrounds. one of them, who we know for his

propensity to find foreign events talking about impact of high interest rates. he says it is still playing out, tightening from central banks operates with a lack of up to 18 months if not longer. he has set up to -- he has said the fed messed things up by not seeing that inflation was coming. we should note that it is a tale risk hedge fund. he is someone who is bearish and provocative. he shared what he sees as the most vulnerable sectors. >> there are two sectors you have to worry about. real estate and pseudo-technology. it absorbs so much money. i don't know which is going to be the first shoe to drop.

annabelle: others are more optimistic when it comes to the property sector. it was an interesting view that came through from tcw group ceo, you heard so much about office real estate, the return to the office has not eventuated. perhaps hybrid work is the new norm across different sectors. commercial real estate really suffering in particular. katie kirsch saying -- katie koch saying it will have a shakedown similar to brick-and-mortar retail stores. it comes down to her assessment of the outlook for the u.s. economy, in particular she is seeing of risk of a hard landing. >> we are at the precipice of the economic landscape changing and people wondering whether we are going to have a recession and what type of landing we will have. i think until we get more certainty around that, we should

expect that to be the continued backdrop for investing. shery: the malaysian ringgit declined as they signaled a higher chance of an extended rate pause. any further rate hikes will depend on how inflation hates. >> i think if you look at all of the economies, they are roughly the same. we have the crisis and measures, rapid inflation because of the supply, and subsequently demand. there are a lot of moving parts, real shocks that are happening. the central banks, market policy being forward-looking, crystal while is challenging. many central banks have taking

the stance to have a reevaluation of the effects of our measures. in a way, when we do a conditional cause, it depends on incoming data. the stickiness of labor market. a degree of uncertainty in terms of -- the economy. the markets were surprised. in terms of communicating their stance, central banks have been consistent. >> it is premature to be talking about cutting rates, you talk about intermittent pause.

a cut is not in the game plan. >> many central banks around the world. we are not in any way, let me declare, we are not entering a specter of recession or slowdown of the economy. the economy has recovered, it is a back to pre-pandemic levels, there are multiple forces of growth, there is no case for us to cut. >> is there a case for continuing to hike? >> it depends on how inflation behaves. inflation was a function of multiplying the man. we have seen demand driven inflation staying strong. we don't have a tight job market. we need to be careful on how the path of inflation going forward. >> might you have to raise rates in an accelerated pace, could we

see a situation where you could have to move faster? >> we are going to be measured and gradual from the way we see the economy, we don't see a departure from that stance. one critical element to we have to face is the removal of -- controls and subcommittee -- moving forward. monetary normalization, but going forward, to the extent that, we don't know the speed or timing of the subsidy normalization. what is important is what are the effects on inflation to the economy? >> andor assessment, -- in your assessment, how inflationary would be the cuts for subsidies in energy prices, and the heatwave which may go on until

august. it will have an impact on food prices. >> if it is food prices and supply shocks, we have a history of seeing through shocks. at this juncture, we don't see inflation to misbehave. heidi: that was the malaysian central assistant governor speaking exclusively to bloomberg. tune into bloomberg radio to hear from the days newsmakers. now passing life from ever studio in hong kong. much more ahead, this is bloomberg. ♪

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shery: the sec has asked a federal court for permission to use what it calls alternative means to serve papers to chanpeng zhao binance ceo. he is known for being protective of revealing his location, the company has long claimed to not have a headquarters. the agency seems to be implying that they are hard to locate. how are they going to go about serving those papers? olga: in the filing, the agency

asked if it could possibly provide all of the documents, subpoenas, requests for information, to the lawyers for cz and binance, that it worked with while investigating the company. that is the request, and in the filing they said, it is essentially hard to find their whereabouts. like you said, finances does not have an official headquarters, and cz is very worried about his privacy and protecting his privacy. heidi: what are we talking about when it comes to alternative means, how could we see this play out? olga: he would likely get all of his documents through his lawyers.

we know who the lawyers representing binance in this lawsuit that was filed by the sec against a on monday. cz has been part of the lawsuit as well personally. so all of the documents will go directly to the lawyers now. shery: in the next hour we will be hearing from the south korean prosecutor heading the -- investigation into the fallen crypto mobile. here the occlusive interview. exclusive interview. a big check of the business flash headlines. citigroup has dismantled its global team that provides analysis on forint exchange market. all jobs within the city fx global fx strategy team are affected. citigroup made the change because other parts of the banks

are offering similar services. bank of america has announced several leadership changes in its investment inking unit. this includes shifting spots ability for its global transaction services business to monaco. it will assume response ability for dts in addition to his current. he is a former head of global dts. that is about it for "daybreak australia", daybreak: asia is as we count down. asia stocks are excited to rise. this is bloomberg. ♪

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