>> good morning, welcome to

daybreak australia. i am haidi stroud-watts in sydney. >> we are counting down to asia's major market opens. i am shery on, the top stories this hour. wall street israeli deepening beyond ai with traders still piling in about an overbought market. u.s. listed china starts getting a boost from beijing stimulus plans. the ecb hikes very likely. the boj outline jp morgan. the return to retail growth and the glimmer of hope for china's sluggish consumer sector. u.s. futures opening in the asian session pretty muted. this after the s&p 500 strengthened for six consecutive sessions. the nasdaq 100 also getting close to 40% already.

microsoft, one of those names closing at record high, against 45%, adding $800 billion in market value. there is an ai push making investors very optimistic about that stock. we are seeing yields holding steady. we have a little bit of a lift when it came to oil prices given this expectation of more stimulus coming from china. we are seeing a little bit of pressure about that $70 a barrel level. we are watching the deli very closely. we have seen the ecb hiking, the fed pausing. that really sending the dollar into a tailspin. twice absolutely. putting a lot of downward pressure on the greenback. when you look at the deli moves

versus the peers, there was one exception here. we saw some strength in the dollar against the japanese yen. it really was the story of that rate differential that we are all about in the session today between the fed and the boj. that rate differential coming to the floor. on the one hand you have jay powell. he says for hikes could be necessary even if markets don't necessarily believe that. on the flipside you have the boj priming investors to really confirm inflation has become more entrenched there. before they start to consider making any policy adjustments. we are seeing this trading around the seven month low. looking a little high. also lower against those commodity linked premises. you mentioned those moves we saw in the euro. we did see big gains. we are past that 153 level.

we have not seen that since the days of the financial crisis. there are different paths that have been for the boj versus what we got for the ecb. >> the european central bank delivering a more hawkish than expected rate hike. standing in contrast, >> the president of the ecb was much more straightforward. i think it was christine lagarde. let's listen to what she said. >> it is very likely the case that we will continue to increase rates. it does not come as a big

surprise to you. this is because we are determined to reach our target in a timely manner. have we finished the journey? >> with rate hike today, the key rate stands at 3.5%. that is a two decade high. apparently not high enough for the ecb. not yet. even though the latest inflation numbers improve debate, they forecast the ecb has or inflation shown arise again and she has shown that it is not only expected to rise a bit, it is expected to remain too high for too long. they still have work to do.

people are not only looking at a july hike, the consensus is more around that. some are saying there could be a september hike as well. >> the bank of japan -- they are nice but any policy change. could we get some sort of signal from when we could expect the end of the monetary policy? twice, think that is for anything that ambitious. you are absolutely right. people are wondering if there could be something he is asked, some comment on what he is probably not ready to do. he has been very cautious. he was at the boj from 1998 to 2005. there was at least one major mistake made when they tightened too soon. the cost of premature tightening is much greater than the cost of

letting inflation go. that is one big reason why they are not expected to move. they have been in this state for a long time. very low flat rates. it will be a big shift when they finally do it. everyone is waiting for the boj to say we finally believe inflation is stably -- sustainably above 2%. so far, the inflation forecasts shows inflation year-over-year coming back onto 0.6%. that is one of the obstacles. there is a less distorted bond market. think back to autumn before going to the big tweak nobody expected. the jgb yields were testing the top of the yc sea. almost every day. there was the weakness in the end. let's remember, at the 145 level

, the dollar yen level is very important. there was the deli and level being tested. this was another thing that finally spurred corroded. the government seems to be in a very different position. not so much or not so sustainably or consistently. the one thing is the threat of a snap election. that might be putting the boj back on its heels. >> kathleen hays topping the agenda. also, just the broad enthusiasm. we are seeing these ai stocks rally. >> it has been in the same rally

for the nasdaq. a lot of the stock market has been pretty good. this is moving out. that is interesting because for a while there, the narrative would embrace a rate cut. it wanted a rate cut. yesterday, when power clearly outlined they were not going to cut rates, i asked a portfolio manager why stocks are rallying and he actually said now, stocks are thinking if we don't get rate cuts, maybe that means the economy is better than expected. so earnings would like that. it is interesting to see how these narratives shift. >> jp morgan today highlighting that one risk to stocks could be rebalancing. what are the risks here that you see?

>> the jp morgan strategists have a note out today, those real money investors speak to sovereign wealth funds. they could have to unload up to $150 billion worth of stocks during this quarter's rebalancing and that is because global stocks have outperformed bonds so much. in order to keep that stock bond allocation within the required limits for a lot of these funds, pension funds are going to have to sell stocks and they say this could mean that global stocks will fall. some of these numbers are pretty outstanding. we have japan's one-point million dollar pension fund leading to sell $137 billion of equity is to get back to his target allocation. we will see if pension rebalancing could be something that will take the wind out of this equity rally.

>> that was our cross asset reported there. we will be hearing exclusively from jd retail. what he sees a rebound emerging when it comes to chinese consumer sentiment. >> i think our service revenue will grow relatively steadily in the second and third quarters. it is still hard to say how much it will grow but it is part of the overall ecosystem for marketplace merchants so long as we do a good job in the infrastructure of the ecosystem, the world will remain healthy. >> we are getting more from that conversation at first, why they are just beginning the bigger impact is yet to come. this is bloomberg. ♪ what if we live to 100.

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>> the fed has inflation coming in more slowly than a lot of people. i really think for the first

time in a while, they really are data dependent. our next guest expects u.s. midsession as we continue to see synchronized worldwide monetary tightening. great to have you with us. the ecb made it crystal clear there are more hikes coming. that did the same. we are headed toward a live meeting in july. when do you expect to see the full effects of all this global tightening? typically it takes a year to 18 months. when you first see a tightening cycle began, the 40 see the effects on the economy, we are not at about 14 or 15 months. in this case, we also had a

slightly stronger fiscal impetus at the beginning of it. we had a little bit of a stronger labor market. we are seeing some crumbling and the labor markets if you will. we are seeing a decrease in the rate at which hourly earnings are going up and a decrease in hours. all of those are beginning signs of a lot more softness in the labor market. we are seeing housing prices year ago that continues to restrict consumers. consumers are locked in place because they have a low market. so they are not able to take out home equity loans because that would be a much higher rate than what they have right now. i think we will see those constraints on behaviors starting soon. in addition, we saw and china came back from reopening from

covid, there was an immediate spike in global expectations but that really has not borne out in the real data coming from china so you're starting to see a purchasing manager index of the for six months coming down. >> we continue to see the markets rally. that has been really interesting here in the u.s.. even with these growing calls of a potential recession globally, the s&p 500 continues to enter deeper and printable markets. how do you position in a rational way that if you do get a recession, you are not hit too hard? >> we are being cautious but not defensive. when we say that the markets are hitting s&p or the nasdaq, you have to remember that the top 10 stocks have accounted for 90% of the returns for the s&p 500 here today.

490 stocks have not been using those new highs. when you typically have a very narrow market like that, whether it is skewed by artificial intelligence or whatever it is being fueled by, that breaks down and he can only pull the market up so high. we are adding to our number of positions when you enter a recession, you have a greater correlation of names to get the same protection of diversification, you need warnings. we are continuing to trend stocks that have gotten very expensive and by ones that have very good prospects with growth but are perhaps a little bit cheaper. we are anticipating and anticipating and not chasing after those top 10 stocks. >> where do you find that juncture of value and opportunity given that we have

talked about how narrow this rally has been? >> we believe the opportunity for now is going to be in companies that have really strong balance sheets and a history of being able to weather economic cycles and still produce this. we think that could be transformational. we are looking for things that so the basic capital equipment that will be used in the funding for the inflation reduction act because there is a lot of capital investment being incentivized because of that. there is a lot in the industrial place we can find through that. we expect them to be a little

bit less cyclical than would typically be the case. >> how do you feel about the u.s. consumer at the moment? >> we feel like the u.s. consumer has been in a somewhat better position than usual for this far into the cycle. we are still seeing retail sales hold up fairly well. we're are definitely seeing consumers downshift a little bit. whether they are by oneness side of french fries or whether they are moving down to a discount store from a full price store, we are seeing a slowdown in some of the more expensive purchases. we think the consumers are going to be trending that way soon. then we get a very rapid retrenchment in consumer spending. i would say the consumers are slightly running up their credit card balances. we are seeing some increases

there going to spend just a little bit. when we see those employment numbers start to decline and the unemployment rate go up, we are expecting to see that consumer spending shut down fairly quickly. >> always great to chat with you. much more to come on daybreak australia. this is bloomberg. ♪

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>> the retail ceo on jd.com said the e-commerce giant is on track to emerge from a record sales slow down. where he is seeing a rebound in consumer sentiment. >> i think our service revenue will move steadily in the second

and third quarters. it is hard to say how much it will grow. it is part of the overall ecosystem for market place merchants so long as we do a good job in the infrastructure of the ecosystem, the growth will remain healthy. >> in the first quarter, jd.com retail recorded a slight drop in revenue but an increase in operating income. why was that? >> there were many reasons. one of the main reasons is that jd.com has provided the largest and most complete supply chain in china during the three years of the pandemic. in the past three years, jd.com has won the trust of many users and has taken on the responsibility for delivery at many epicenters.

therefore, when the pandemic ended, our first quarter growth rate was slightly lower compared with our previous high base. for some other companies, they had a rather low base during the pandemic. there is a trade-off in the middle. but we did not realize the changes in consumers since the second half of last year so we have been constantly adjusting. i believe you will see an upward curve in the growth rate when we release results for the second quarter. >> you are expecting revenue to start to increase again. >> we will definitely get better and better. >> what does that tell you about the rest of the year and what to expect in terms of the marketplace for the rest of this year? >> judging from our own business situation, jd.com is constantly giving -- skinny consumer

estimation. we are confident in the second half of the year. >> what would you say is of greater importance? market share or profitability? >> in the long run, the marketer is necessary. when you don't have market share, the prophets are actually fake. so i don't think this is what an aggressive company like jd should do, caring only about profit. we have always believed that profit should be a natural outcome. a warning indicator. >> we could not take on measures that turn out to be too aggressive and lead to a big decline in profits. as long as the measures to expand our market share are reasonable, we should take them to serve more consumers and gain

recognition. we make long-term market share a priority. >> what are you thinking about overseas, going forward? >> we have a very clear strategy overseas. jd.com has advantages in supply chain and logistics. it may take some time because of the overseas market. i believe that we can see even more and better progress overseas and the second half of this year and next year. quick speaking exclusively here to john there. we are getting into this final friday session. australian futures looking like this, pretty muted.

looking like we will extend some of those modest gains. the biggest action overnight and over the past couple of sessions have been in affects and bonds. we did see some upside coming from the jobs numbers. this is a warning sign for recessions. we have more tightening from the rba. is new zealand a little bit softer this morning? the chicago nikkei futures pretty flat but watching the dollar-yen after the end hit that seven month low against th

a further indicator when it comes to the new zealand

economy, the manufacturing pmi falling further to 40.9 in may from 49.1. that revised number for the previous month as well, 48.8. we are seeing that fall further into contractionary territory. we saw this with new zealand falling into a recession. this kind of paint a picture when it falls to the risks of the endgame for these global central banks. the risk to recession being realized in new zealand, one of the earliest to start this tightening cycle. they had a version first really as well. the recession risk being brought forward for the rba as well. >> we are in the home stretch of this huge week for central banks. now we have the boj scheduled to announce the decision friday with jp morgan security saying officials could be surprising with a tweet to the yield curve control program. let's bring in annabelle. this is an outlier call.

>> that is right. given that we have most economists expect and that the boj will stand pat in his meeting, this is the sort of guidance we have been hearing from other officials at the central bank. in terms of what else we are hearing, pine ridge is saying the window to normalize is actually now wider. it is down to what is happening at the fed. the expectation growing that jay powell will hold interest rate hikes in the second half. the previous view was that was rate hikes that were likely to end in june and rate cuts -- rates would be cut in the second half, expectations are now growing at the end of rate hikes. pine ridge saying that window to normalize has been pushed out a little bit. they will have to change those yield curve control policies. they are building in a variety of ways. the yield curve cap being

tested. the flipside of that is you have the yen trading around the 140 or even weaker. that is something that could beaver -- supportive for stocks as well. >> and others are uncertain but looks like they'll have to continue. one of the reactions? >> that is what came through and at the ecb. you take a look at where we are at the one-year mark or approaching the one-year mark of the ecb's most aggressive tightening campaign on record, we have gone from negative rates to .5%. the deposit standing at 3.5% and the guidance coming through from ing. the reaction is coming through on the yen or rather the euro. the euro yen trading above 153.

the real weakness coming into the euro. you can see on that today basis is for the euro against the dollar. the former u.s. secretary of state henry kissinger wants china could end up in a military conflict with the u.s. over taiwan. i think some military conflict is probable. i also think the current trajectory --

there have been signs on both sides of trying to end it, they have not actually get engaged in the sort of dialogue i leave my mind open to the outcome. because the other thing that just happened is china has got more involved in things beyond the traditional reach. you see china talking to zelensky. you see china brokering a kind of truce between iran and saudi arabia. >> an inevitable part of the cuts. both sides explained to each other what their core interests are and they determine how to

handle situations the class. i would hope they can do this without conflict or managed to avoid situations of clashing. >> you can watch the full conversation with the former u.s. secretary, henry kissinger this friday. it is at 12:00 a.m. on saturday. you can watch the program at 6:00 a.m. on sunday. that is here on bloomberg television. the secretary of state antony blinken will travel to beijing this week. this long-delayed trip is and as stabilizing relations between the two largest economies and strategic rivals. let's bring it to daniel rosen,

great to have you with us. this is a great search -- strategic competition of our time. are we going to see more progress toward the grown-up revelry? the guardrails? the expectation has been deliberately managed. >> at the we looked back the past two years and the u.s. was in a very unusual place coming off the trump years. it does make sense to me that the focus in washington was on shoring up the american position, the american economy and we are there now. the u.s. is back basically where it should be in terms of international relations. a pretty strong economy. it is now turning to the external side to get back to that conversation with beijing. i think that is the backdrop here. there is a sense that washington is back standing on his feet the right way properly. we have a lot to talk about in terms of whether the chinese economy. >> this comes at a pretty challenging time for beijing domestically.

there is not a time when china is going to sincerely pass through as a saving grace to the rest of the world although they might still do that. does that change the tenor of conversations at all? >> i do, i think it is the most important element of figuring out what the tenor of the conversation is. if john is coming from a position of growth and strength and the u.s. is just going to be a mess election after election, there is one set of assumptions that the whole world has to take in terms of where this is going to go. that narrative that was predominant two years ago is very different right now. as to beijing's ability if it wishes to bring stimulus to put things back on track, even the most aimless we are talking about right now to stabilize the property sector there, that can come close to accounting for the amount of local government insolvency problems we are all looking at in terms of local bonds all over the country. >> we do want to get to the economic side of things in china but i do want to stay with the

geopolitics. especially when it comes to this push against china terrain in its tech ambitions. how well has beijing fought back? >> the u.s. does have a lot of tools but since october 7 when the semiconductor tools were used, a lot of conversation has taken place on the american side and there is an appreciation that that toolbox can't be used for everything. the advanced no semis were a very particular case where the u.s. had a lot of punch and it chose to use it. not a lot of sectors that meet that criteria. what has china done since then? >> there is very little that china can do. of course, they have put -- they have sent micron but that was kind of expected to a great extent. micron was the very company that publicly stated its discontent with how it is being handled in

china for some time. i don't think any of us were shocked about that. mostly what we have realized is that if the u.s. keeps its techno-security game focused on those small gardens as jake sullivan, janet yellen and others have said, there is really so much china can do to push back on that. it is not the technological superpower it hoped to be by this time in history. >> how big the taiwan issue good blowup. when you are seeing communication on the suicides, is there enough, you see them going to china last month but lloyd austin could not get to sit down with his counterpart. what's the first thing to appreciate is there are two sides here. washington and beijing.

they are looking at what the global commercial activity -- even a blockade scenario in taiwan quickly came up with numbers pushing $3 trillion annual and it is not just american commercial interests. everybody needs chips, everybody is affected by the whole ship and zone around taiwan becoming uninsurable. that is what would happen if there was an escalation to the conflict. relative to where we have been your today, the fact that secretary blinken is on his way over, there are more conversations taking place. i have been invited back for track two. the first time since the pandemic next month with the delegation that will be going to restart some civil society conversations. these things are encouraging but the stakes around taiwan are too high for anyone to think it is somebody else's problem. >> lots more to talk about on the topic. more to come still on daybreak

australia. this is bloomberg. ♪

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all of this helping them to cut their rate. expectations also building for more stimulus. the problem is the space authorities have, the effectiveness of debt, the productivity of debt. the fact that they are still paying off covid zero. what can they do that is also going to be efficacious at this point? >> on the business investment side, the only store in town is the ongoing rightsizing of the property sector and property investment. this has come down enormously since the peak in 2021. 1.2 billion last year. that seems like a painful step down but now we are running about 700 million square feet annualized.

you have to take business investment off the table as a source of any kind of growth or momentum this year. government spending and stimulus, the stuff everybody's hoping to hear good news about today is predicated on local government selling plans to property developers. that is how they closed the books. we are left with household consumption and exports. the export site has been a little brighter than some of us expected. they kind of this would be a great year. the kind of trouble we are seeing when now is precisely what we would say. when those consumers had a choice, they put their semis into time composites. that is not what you do if you are going to go out on a spending binge. criteria are. it does not help that -- the policy surprises, the crackdowns, you take everyone by surprise, should we expect more?

i always wonder what xi jinping's endgame is. >> this is the geopolitics we were talking about and where the economics come back together. you don't have to be pragmatic on the external side politically, if you have all the economic momentum behind you but once any government has to stare hard into the simple objective data and reality that aging is seeing right now, you really have to think carefully about whether you are doing everything you can to de-escalate on the external side. big choices will be made in germany about automobile trade policy and foreign subsidies. big choices will be made in australia about how willing they are to go to bat for beijing and say let's give them a chance and hear them out here. there is a case for beijing -- xi jinping and beijing to do what i can to contribute to the de-escalation.

with all this talk on the chinese economy and the chinese people having the government, do you give up a little bit of the control the government has on your life for economic stability? when you have another month of record high unemployment for the youth, one of every five youth not having a job, how does this risk the stability for the communist party? >> it is the crucial questions. if it were a month and it were a reasonable basis to think that the end of the month or by the end of the quarter, even by the end of the year, things were going to get back on track, that this was just a hiccup, then i think i would always been on the chinese people to hang in there, to eat bitterness and be resilient as to the course and wait out the winter but they have been running for more than

one season now. there are a big structural reasons to be concerned about whether there will be a happy ending at the end of all of this. >> this coming at a time when we are talking about youth unemployment holding at about 20.8% in may according to official data. this is the second consecutive month the chinese economy is seeing a record high unemployment. continuing on that narrative, what does that mean for policymakers trying to open up the economy? we have continued to see these efforts, revived efforts after the covid lockdowns that they want to open up their financial markets according to language for policymakers, how does this square into the fact that they actually need the growth right now? question is policymakers pretty much understand what the narrative has to look like.

rebalancing is supposed to look like not thrown so much investment and property infrastructure every time there is a problem. they don't have the fiscal where will do that right now. that we can see on the data check. there is not as much stimulus as people expected. at the same time, this handoff needs consumers to step up and really drive things going forward. they had to change all the second half 2020 retail data to make it look like these are doing ok in the first quarter of this year. unemployment and kids are just coming out of college with the right degrees, that is way higher than it should be. private business and technologists are still sitting on the sidelines, trying to figure out where this is going. the bottom line is that there is probably some clarity about the necessary switch to investment growth and consumer led growth.

the thing that goes along with that is that 5% chinese gdp growth over the next five years is a totally realistic expectation, it just does not work with the math. i think they say we are going to try to do three. and that is good news. we are taking the time to rebuild the shop and get ourselves set up for the next phase here. there is a version of that story that could be told, keeping smart money sticky and long on china but if they say you can keep doing as much as we want, we can do whatever we want, that has less and less credibility. that is what the markets are having with everyone else. >> we can do whatever we want has been the messaging that has gotten them home. how do they message structurally's for longer? it was already the situation. covid zero. to have more incidences where

there is more dissatisfaction? you can eat bitterness when you are in the middle of an economic growth miracle. there was one thing to say you are going to promise stability all the time, it is another thing to be able to do it. one of the things we have learned during the market economies is that as much as we would all like to be assured that our portfolios are always going to be stable and there are no ups and downs, it turns out that is an immature hope. one has to adjust to the nature of things. there will be ups and downs. there will be human nature in the mix. even the most well organized government with the most tools to try to smooth the story out is going to have a hard time doing so. households, probably not. the government can't do everything it has promised. if government message of this the right way as i daresay president xi did in late 2013 and put a plan on the table and

said we are going to have to let the equity market of the lease, we are going to have to clean up the banks, pull the state out of a number of industries, a that stuff? that was all the right stuff. it is not as though china's leadership has two completely change its stripes here, he needs to go back to what he already knew it had to do about a decade ago. and let us know how we are to take seriously that this time is for real. >> that felt like a fairytale from another time. thank you for joining us here in sydney. much more to come here on daybreak. this is bloomberg. ♪ star. rock star? what do you know about rock stars? billy idol? i mean where's the skin-tight leather? my shoes are leather. where's the unnecessary zippers? that thing! billy, rock star is just how doug feels when he uses

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>> we just had that great conversation about the challenges facing the chinese economy. one of the factors is external demand. the external do -- environment is looking so shaky. those of a soft landing are starting to get a little bit concerning given we have seen economies like new zealand falling into a technical recession. there are no concerns with how strong the labor market is here. the rba as an upside. that could move forward in an australian session.

you still see such resilient labor markets in a lot of these economies. >> that is why surprising. you see on that chart that you are looking at the u.s. and german yielding version. we continue to see these as a recession to come. when you look at the labor market, it remains pretty solid. this is rising instead of contracting. we are talking about most categories actually rising including discretionary goods. bloomberg intelligence is now saying that the longer term trend might not be as positive. if you look at alternative data like cardboard shipments, perhaps we are seeing some softening in demand for goods to come. >> this level of uncertainty, this environment that central bankers are dealing with really

heightening the risk of a policy mistake. to the overtime, the under titan? there was some criticism from some of the guests we spoke to yesterday saying the fed things they're going to have to tighten further. why didn't they do so this week? there is a great deal of uncertainty for investors to be worried about. including the boj. this is the last one to round off this week. a rate decision from japan. most economists expecting the boj to stay on hold. former boj officials say they will be joining us to discuss their views. that is it for daybreak australia. daybreak asia is next. this is bloomberg. ♪ no. he's making sure his portfolio and retirement plans work in harmony. they want to adopt a child and build a new home. so they're talking numbers with their merrill adviser.

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