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♪ >> a very good morning. welcome to "daybreak: australia." >> we are counting down to asia's major market open. >> from new york, i am shery ahn. top stories this hour. a positive but cautious tone as the u.s. secretary of state talks with his chinese counterparts in beijing. the meeting described as candid and constructive. >> the transportation secretary says the u.s. must cut china's advantage in ev batteries paid we are exclusively this hour from pete buttigieg. australia's plan for thousands of government-subsidized homes to help ease the housing supply crunch. look at how u.s. futures are coming online in the asian session. a little bit of upside and

rebound from losses in the friday session. it was challenging. we had a massive options expiration date on friday, not to mention we are headed towards a u.s. holiday monday. you have to put it into context. five weeks of gains for the s&p 500, the longest winning streak since 2021. we had treasury yields climbing across the board. the 10-year yield above the 376 level. hawkish commentary coming from fed officials. this week, we are focusing on chair powell's semiannual address to congress. we are still seeing downside in oil prices a weekly gain. a little more optimism on chinese stimulus coming but we are seeing the downside in the asian session. that will get started in about an hour. we saw it around $71 a barrel.

>> interesting you mentioned jay powell's address this week. something we know the fed tracks closely are the university of michigan surveys that look not only into consumer inflation expectations but consumer sentiment more broadly. we had the latest numbers friday. given there were a lot of nerves in the market around the expiration window, this was perhaps a little ignored by some investors. we saw consumer inflation easing. you can see the big drop in the white line which takes us down to 3.3%. we have not seen that rating since march in 2021. that is a positive indicator for the fed, even though goldman sachs saying perhaps this is overstated, inflation is not going to be coming down as quickly as traders expect. let's look at how we are setting up for the asian trading day.

we are looking fairly range bound and muted. still trading about the 140 level. it could be supportive for japanese equities throughout the session and qe stocks to the downside -- qe stocks to the downside. haidi: absolutely, particularly when it comes to risk assets. antony blinken's lengthy meeting in beijing has been described as candid and constructive. let's bring in our correspondence. expectations were managed very low going into the meeting. a seven-hour discussion. what do we know? >> advise you said at the top, both sides used the word candid

and constructive in the written readouts they put out separately after the meeting. i suppose you could read that as cautiously optimistic. something along those lines. it was a very long meeting. on the other hand, you also say they have a lot to discuss. the real issue is secretary of state blinken will still have more talks monday. after that, he will be expected to give a news conference where you will probably get a more detailed view of how the u.s. is playing this. the other issue is they came into this meeting, it took a long time to set up. you will remember it was originally scheduled earlier in the year but then the chinese

flu flew over the u.s. causing a diplomatic incident. that caused blinken to put off the visit. now we are reconnecting. i think that is the broader context. haidi: that connection might t continue. we heard he was positive about a visit to washington. >> they agreed in principle blinken would invite him to washington at a mutually suitable time yet to be determined. just reading through body language, it seemed to be conciliatory towards the gentleman. the big question will be what comes out of antony blinken's meetings with the top diplomat out of the chinese government. the other litmus test is, will xi jinping actually meet antony blinken?

right now as of sunday night, there was no scheduled meeting. if that doesn't go through, that could be an indication talks are going fairly well. all of the contentious issues were discussed over about 7.5 hours, much longer than anticipated. taiwan according to the foreign minister is the core of the issues with china. the biggest problem and most prominent risk in ties. i was reading through china dailies, state media. you have to read between the lines. they had a readout just before 5:00 this morning. it is muted. there are a few clarifications from china's perspective, especially on the spy balloon issue which scuttled lincoln's earlier attempt to go in february. they are calling it washington

hyping a unmanned civilian aircraft. they talk about how it remains to be seen if washington will break away from its two-faced approach of saying one thing while doing another. they are quoting an economist in beijing. there is still some rhetoric but with expectations set low by both sides, the fact that the talks went 7.5 hours and there's a slight chance xi jinping as bill gates met xi jinping on friday. that could be a signal ties are getting better. >> were there corporate deliverables? >> i don't know if this is a deliverable.

they said before the trip, i believe the state department came out and said there were not going to be any deliverables. there has been an invitation to come to washington. and the readout from the chinese side is we are trying to get back to the momentum we saw in november when xi jinping met with joe biden but things turned south quickly after the spy balloon incident and other issues with speculated military provocations on both sides set relations to the worst level since the establishment of diplomatic relations in the 1970's. haidi: could we expect a biden-xi meeting again? >> good point. biden was asked about this over the weekend. he gave a somewhat interesting response. this was relatively off-the-cuff

to some reporters while traveling in the u.s. he said he does hope to meet with xi at some point in coming months which would be one of the subtexts of blinken's trips would be to try to set up the next biden-xi meeting. the other thing he said that was interesting, biden said he has come to believe the chinese leadership, assuming he means the political leadership, was not fully aware of the details of the balloon mission and he seems to think it may not have been intentional.

seemed to be an interesting choice of words for the president, especially after everything that went down around the balloon earlier in the year. haidi: let's stay with the ongoing competition between the superpowers. transportation secretary pete buttigieg has said the u.s. must take steps to cut into china's advantage in electric vehicles he told us the u.s. needs to build relationships domestically and internationally for raw materials and refining capacity. >> things like refining capacity and the raw materials needed are very concentrated in china. >> pete buttigieg speaking exclusively in japan where he is attending a g7 meeting.

we get more of that conversation later this hour. we continue with the flow on effects of the fed last week. when it comes to corporate reaction, it was a pretty rude awakening for some of these companies we have been watching, the wake-up call from jay powell means the potential for more corporate defaults. we are starting to see the maturity wall starting to rise. this is a look at america's most leveraged companies getting the painful reality check with fed chair jay powell warning a rate cut is still a couple of years away. what happens between now and then is more tightening. higher borrowing costs are a reality potentially for longer and these companies need to find a way to manage liabilities. $260 billion of debt in january coming due within a year.

that is about double the current level according to the numbers from morgan stanley. we had a lot of cheap borrowing during the pandemic now needing to be refinanced. shery: looking for yield where they can get it. it is interesting to see how emerging markets at the forefront of the juiciest returns. we have not talked about how markets have not lived up to the hype. given everyone else in the world seems challenge, we have seen some of the most junk rated bonds from el salvador to turkiye outperforming this month. this is interesting given defaults have risen to a record. we continue to see the biggest gains coming from deeply speculative triple c rated companies. we are getting more central bank decisions this week.

how will that play into the rally we have seen in e.m. dollar bonds this year, especially this month, especially when it comes to the riskiest countries? >> this is one of the riskiest litmus tests of how investors are feeling about a soft landing. we are seeing that oscillate, that emerging market breakout rally has disappointed. whether we continue to see that is one aspect we will be watching. still ahead, we will have more on the conversation with the transportation secretary later this hour. pete buttigieg tells us what the u.s. needs to do to dominate the ev battery sector. next, why the u.s. has a good chance of avoiding recession. this is bloomberg. ♪

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or go to loveshriners.org to give right away. thank you. >> can we avoid a hard landing? with careful calibration of market policy, take a pulse, and then decide what to do next, it is possible. but path is narrower. haidi: on avoiding a hard landing. a big week ahead. jay powell will have a chance to reinforce messaging as he gives the semiannual monetary policy

report to congress. another big week for central bank decisions. thursday, the boe set to lift rates amid inflation pressures. the philippines central bank is expected to leave its interest rate unchanged at 6.25%. we will also be getting a rate decision from bank indonesia. economists expect china's banks will reduce lending rates following the decision to cut borrowing costs. we will be getting data from japan at the end of the week. also getting the consumer inflation print from hong kong later monday. australia's leading index, south korea's ppi numbers, and the pmi numbers for japan. that is your week ahead. shery: our next guest says despite concern about a pending recession, the federal reserve has a real shot of avoiding one.

loreen gilbert joins us now. great to have you with us. we have seen many people miss out on the bull run given concerns about recession. it was still have a chance to gain ground despite the fact the rally has been narrow? >> yes. we know the fed paused on rate increases for now. what we also note is what they say is very important and moves the markets. that is why we will continue to hear the fed talk about how they might need to continue to raise rates. but they have paused for now. the reality is we are probably closer to the end of the rate hikes. if we are close to the end of the rate hikes and the economy slows down, we have the opportunity, we don't know if it will happen, that is the tight rope, we don't know if we will

be able to avoid recession. the fed wants to slow the economy and would love to avoid recession and slow it down. we might have a chance of avoiding recession. haidi: history has it a bull market can keep going when the federal reserve pauses for longer instead of resuming rate hikes quickly. the expectation now is for another hike as early as july. would you expect that to derail the rally we have seen? are there any sectors that are safer? >> i think markets are already expecting another rate hike. our baseline is it may not even happen. markets may respond if it does not happen, they certainly would respond to that. we will wait and see. as far as sectors and opportunities, we have seen in financials with everything that happened with the banking industry this year, we saw all financials take a big hit.

we think many of those financial stocks have hit a low, so we do see opportunities in regionals as well as larger banks. for a while, we were staying away from some regionals. we think we may have hit some lows so that is an opportunity as well as real estate where we are seeing this back to work/away from home. many corporations are saying we need our employees to be back in the workforce. with that, we see commercial real estate having opportunity, especially on the debt side. haidi: how are you feeling about the consumer right now? >> what we saw as far as the university of michigan numbers on friday were better-than-expected. but those numbers are still quite low, lower than average. in a way, that can be good for markets because when the numbers are lower, markets tend to be higher.

we have already seen a rally year to date. consumer sentiment seems to be getting better but still on the lower side. haidi: would you be looking at finding opportunities when it comes to consumer facing stocks right now? >> that is a tough one. the consumer still has been resilient most definitely. we don't know how long the consumer can be resilient. with sentiment improving, that certainly could be a tailwind for consumer discretionary to continue to move forward. shery: we have seen some people call cyclical's perhaps an opportunity if we see a recession that might be milder than people expect. are you putting capital there? >> right now, we are focused on looking at opportunities across the board whether in equity or fixed income.

and increasing international exposure we did that at the beginning of this year seeing the dollar was softening, rolling over, and seeing the opportunity for international. domestically, we are looking at areas like real and financials as areas we like. and increasing fixed income exposure as we see opportunities in fixed income as bonds are acting like bones again and the yields that can be achieved are significant. haidi: i think we can have a conversation these days without talking about tech and ai are you still looking for exposure? do you find value in the space? >> a is a story that will continue. we absolutely see plenty of opportunities. while we don't know who the winners in the ai space will be,

it is playing companies with strong talent sheets that have the ability to create the architecture for ai. looking at companies able to support ai with other companies, looking at companies like accenture where they will have quite a bit of opportunity. we just heard they are billions into ai. we see that opportunity and we look to companies like microsoft, apple, google, all those companies that have the opportunity to take advantage of ai. absolutely, we like ai. what we are not interested in is just looking at companies that have the ai name in it. there are companies that have been overbought and speculative by investors thinking anything and ai will be good. that is just not reality. haidi: flooring gilbert, great

to have you back -- loreen gilbert, great to have you back. you can customize settings so you only get news on the assets you care about. this is bloomberg. ♪

haidi: a look at the day ahead for australia and new zealand. the prime minister says the government will spend about 1.4 billion dollars building thousands of subsidized homes to resolve the housing supply crunch. australia's parliament is meeting for the final meeting before the winter break. at the top of the agenda will be holding a referendum from the -- for the indigenous voice campaign. they are looking to external

members for the monetary policy. shery: we are seeing the dollar rebounding a little bit. after coming off the worst week since january, on the other of the train, we had strength for the aussie and key week dollars -- kiwi dollars. not to mention a robust jobs report that took it higher. the japanese yen continues to weaken after touching the weakest since november against the u.s. dollar. we have been watching the euro-yen since we are seeing the yen the weakest since 2008. next, we will be discussing geopolitics. more on s back in the day, sneaker drops meant getting online to wait in line. now with xfinity mobile...

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>> larry submit says he has seen many signs tied -- china's growth is faltering. >> the number of millionaires leaving china was kind of high by historical and global standards. a funny measure in a lot of ways but if you look at measures of attempted capital flight from china, they looked to be strong and if you look at measures of capital inflow, what you saw from sequoia where they were splitting off the china business is indicative of a lot of things that are happening so whether it is supply of people, investments in new capital, i think you have got some the fundamental bets

that are not running that positive in china, and that is going to be a challenge, along with the near issues for the chinese economy. so that is something that, for them, i am worried about. i think it is something that will point towards being more softness in commodity prices globally than many might have expected and we have seen a certain amount of fat in the oil market. shery: larry summers on the economic challenges faced by china. we continue to talk about geopolitics adding to those concerns on investor sentiment. antony blinken talked in beijing with his chinese counterpart and discussions lasted 7.5 hours, much longer than planned. both sides have described the

conversation as candid and constructive. blinken has more meetings later monday including with the communist parties top foreign affairs official. haidi: let's get some analysis with susan thornton, a senior fellow [indiscernible] great to have you with us. the sheer length of the meeting exceeded expectations which were managed low going in. what do you make of the conversation and commentary we have had from it? >> i think this is a really important visit. secretary blinken to beijing, we have not had a secretary of state in china in almost five years, which i think is unprecedented since the normalization of relations so it is really important that he goes and i think u.s. and china really need to project a kind of

diplomatic constructive tone and they managed to. in that time there was probably an airing of distance -- differences and i'm quite sure a bit of time was spent on hong kong and other issues. haidi: high level conversations between these countries are always ongoing. what is significant about this one and does it build momentum for a leaders meeting? >> i do think the ongoing diplomacy is really important and we need to make diplomacy between the two largest powers in the world normal again. not every meeting can be as difficult to set up as this one was so i think based on the president's meeting last november at bali there was supposed to be a cadence of regular diplomacy that under --

that unfurled from that and eight. caught up in the chinese spy balloon controversy and then the meeting was difficult to put back but i think this meeting should unlock a series of different meetings by cabinet officials and their chinese counterparts who have not had a high level travel from the u.s. to china in a long time so i think we will see after this visit, assuming it goes according to plan, whether or not secretary yellen and others will follow suit and traveled to beijing. shery: with high-profile visits including from bill gates, how much has it helped in bringing normalcy relations? >> i think it is significant that china is receiving these high-level business guests.

before bill gates it was jamie dimon and elon musk to signal i think the chinese value these kinds of relationships, many of these are long-standing with these major u.s. business figures who have been in china for decades, microsoft is a huge company that supported chinese development of the last several decades and president xi jinping went to bill gates house in 2015 so they have a relationship so i think china wants to show it values that still and wants u.s. business to feel like it can come to china. shery: one of the biggest concerns around the deteriorating relationship is the potential for confrontation. we have seen dangerous maneuvers between military from both sides , including naval vessels and jets. what guardrails do you need to see eventually built from these

high-level meetings? >> i think this is one of the things that tony blinken is probably working on hard during this visit and a follow-up -- and in follow-up visits. one thing china said they wanted to do in this meeting was established a set of so-called guidelines for the bilateral relationship. what are some things we can agree not to do. so i think the chinese have shied away from the use of guardrails in terms of military to military encounters. they preferred safety nets because they feel guardrails is a u.s. containment strategy in the asia-pacific region so whether they can find common language and a set of practices and principles that would help make this tense situation more

productive bowl between the military's think time will tell. it might not happen at this visit but i think it is one thing that will work towards. haidi: the economic narratives, especially when it comes to china, has changed. the reality is from the beginning of the year the hopes of the big rebound of the resurgence of china's economy has not played out as hoped. has it changed the tone of these conversations? does it give washington more leverage? >> i know that is something some people are saying and larry summers was just talking about the trouble china is having in the post-covid recovery. one thing i think it does is raises the political stakes for the chinese government and their relationship with the u.s. and conducting these meetings. the political stakes around

china and u.s.-china relations are already high on washington. in a way that is what makes it more difficult to set up these meetings and make progress in them, because there is a lot of political capital at risk on both sides so i think xi is facing internal pressures at home. whether or not he feels like he can use the relationship with the u.s. to make some gains against those pressures, i am not sure. it seems like they are more worried about the pressures coming from the united states on their economy and probably looking to try to make some headway pushing back on that so i am not sure the economic difficulties provide a lot of u.s. leverage, but we will see. it might for the business people who were visiting recently in beijing in terms of being welcomed. shery: we will see will concrete

deals come out of it. susan thorton, good to have you with us. coming up next, pete buttigieg says the u.s. must take steps to cut china dominance in the ev battery space. we will hear from him next. this is bloomberg. ♪

shery: you are watching daybreak australia. fed officials will have opportunity to reinforce a hawkish message. share powell warns rates might have to rise further despite this month skip. let's bring in annabelle for more. bond investors having to regroup already. annabelle: that's right. looking at the chart we can see what had been one of the favorite trades of 2023 and we see the spread between the five and 30 year treasuries. going back to the early 1990's. the point in the chart is how much traders have been forced to recalibrate because looking at the out lacks we get from the major investment banks at the end of last year and a lot of them saw the labor market would

soften and inflation easing off the back of that and the fed starting to put a pause in cuts on the table and then in early march we had banking jitters and that reinforces the message some investors were expecting great cuts as early as july but fast forward a couple of months and it is a different story. labor markets still looking resilient. inflation staying sticky. no expectation of a fed cut or pause. not soon. yields cap starting to flatten again. a lot of investors are saying this trade is challenging at this point, not the time to put bets back on the table. it is expensive and crowded. sit it out saying if you take a

look at the fed projections it still signals more hikes to come. haidi: we see events -- bets that inflation will drop more quickly. annabelle: this is that university of michigan survey we get each month that it shows inflation expectations on a one-year basis and it missed to the downside thereby a wide projection so coming in at 3.3%, a huge drop of where we were a few months ago around the year 5.5% range so it tells us yes we see price pressures starting to dissipate according to the survey as well as consumers looking more jubilant, resilient over the coming 12 months but goldman sachs saying this sort of chart here is overstated and saying inflation will stay sticky and what is driving that is energy prices they say will continue to be more high than

what futures are currently projecting and it is one thing they are watching closely. haidi: another thing we are watching it comes to weakness ie year. it does not matter what pair you look at, when it comes to trading against the euro the weakest in 15 years against the pound the weakest in eight years and against the aussie dollar the weakest in 10 months. to seven months for the u.s. dollar. the japanese yen is the worst performing g10 currencies currency today, down 7.5 percent against the greenback and so much of this is down to the policy divergence that fed indicated more rate hikes could be on the way and bank of japan keeping the dovish start and we will watch for the potential from japanese authorities today the yen looking soft on the trade-weighted basis but looking at the privet area around 140

two were just above the 142 level as the bank of japan keeping the 10 year yield hike unchanged really the sense of caution from the governor. creating the dynamic we are seeing around the trading at the moment. shery: more monetary action coming this week, including bank of england and swiss national bank expected to hike rates. in the u.s., transportation secretary says he wants to de-risk. he spoke with bloomberg on the sidelines of the g7 meeting. we asked him about the challenges posed by china's ownership of international container port. >> as we seek to diversify and de-risk of the supply chains and economic relationships, we want to make sure these capabilities are not concentrated with anyone country, certainly with a

country that may demonstrate a willingness to use these in ways that are not connected to what is the best going forward either commercially or in terms of the rules-based international order. and we want to make sure, at least when we can agree on matters from climate change to public health, that we are operating on a basis that can be understood to be for the benefit. those are the kinds of things we are focused on in the g7. >> are there any other sectors that need to be de-risked? even the drug sector in china. the world is reliant on basic drugs when it comes to china. pete buttigieg: i don't want to wander too far outside my own portfolio. these are active conversations. what i can say with regard to supply chains is we have seen when there is not enough door for -- diversification you see

extraordinary levels of geopolitical and you -- and logistical risk in the u.s. because of the extreme variation between closures and openings in asia and china specifically. there is unevenness in terms of the arrival of goods. the ports were not ready to take in all at once. one example of a wake up call the u.s. and global immunity in general has experienced, especially in the last three years. >> talking about supply chains, semi conductors are front and center. u.s., japan, korea, taiwan have been investing heavily in their own semi conductor sectors. pete buttigieg: overcapacity seems to be the least of our problems when it comes to the race of semi conductors and we saw how problematic it was when we came up short. this is a process where the very

intentional direct and ambitious use of public policy has to match the unique ability of markets to allocate resources and help make sure that the capacity is tracking the future of demand. what we know is semi conductors are going to be even more important in the future. we think about the automotive sector and the fact that a car is increasingly as much a computer as it is a vehicle. the same could be said of so many other sectors. so rather than allow ourselves to be in a situation where we are coming up short, we are making sure both in terms of relationships with friends and trading partners and in terms of domestic capacity, which is also benefited from foreign direct investment that is helping create jobs on u.s. soil while strengthening partnerships and relationships across the pacific, what is something that makes sense -- but it is something that makes sense for the future and helps us cushion

geopolitical risk. >> boeing looking to deliver jets to china. how are you trying to push this along with the chinese government? >> our focus from the faa standpoint is on certification and safety. the rest is a market matter. there is a lot of interest from e*trade perspective but we are very cautious in my department to separate traded questions from safety questions. >> you talked about gm, ford, who have said they are ready to adopt tesla's superchargers. will that make it more difficult for your department to have oversight of tesla autopilot? >> the relationship has been established in terms of charterers cash chargers is positive.

we want to make sure a good strong charging network is available. we are not picking winners and losers saying this company standard is better than others. we established a baseline in terms of access to connectors to make sure everyone knew what to expect but that is designed as the floor, not the ceiling. haidi: that was pete buttigieg speaking exclusively with bloomberg. tune into bloomberg radio to hear more from the newsmakers and get analysis from our team broadcasting live from the studio in hong kong. bloombergradio.com. this is bloomberg. ♪

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haidi: the australian government is planning to spend one point $4 billion building government-subsidized homes amid a housing crunch that is driving prices. what are the details of the plan? paul and -- paul allen has more. paul: the problem is he wants but this money is a start. 2 billion australian dollars. right off the bat every state

and territory will get $50 million and then it is on a population basis. it will start flowing june 30. but australia has a problem driven by migration, inflation, short supply, all driven up prices and rental prices -- prices for buying and renting. this puts the most vulnerable part of the population in a precarious position and the prime minister has said the plan will create thousands of homes for australians for social housing. shery: there are so many different challenges and reasons why the market is facing so many problems so how effective will this actually be? paul: supply and inflation are only part of it. there were a tax breaks in

australia. and then you have the usual problems we are seeing in the current environment with supply change disruptions, materials are extremely expensive, so even if done with the best of intentions this will be challenging but this money is just the entrée to the main course. this package was put together to win the support of the green party in the how -- in the senate. a bigger package is set to deliver 5 million australian dollars each year to use -- to build social housing. that will probably be voted on in the next few days. haidi: paul allen. so much focus on rate divergence and where we see the fed headed from here.

whether you see last week's move as a pause or skip, we have some muted moves when it comes to bond yields trading here in australia and new zealand as we head into the start of equity trading for the rest of the region and still a lot of central-bank action expected and china's central banks expected to cut their lpr on the back of the pboc move and some extent -- and expecting some inflation rates. hearing from fed chair powell this week as well. here are some of the things we are watching. coming up we speak with wells fargo and they take on inflation and stabilization. and we will talk about investing in china with eurasia group. ♪