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tv   Bloomberg Daybreak Asia  Bloomberg  June 19, 2023 7:00pm-9:00pm EDT

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>> you're watching daybreak asia live from seoul, sydney and hong kong. >> cut it down to asia's major market opens. -- counting down to asia's march -- major market opens. >> antony blinken's beijing billet -- visit has been praised by the president of china and america. >> the two sides have made progress and reached agreements on specific issues. this is very good. >> the global stock rally waivers and investors worry about china's tempered recovery. plus south korea is $169 billion -- there one in $69 billion
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wealth fund has a wait-and-see message on china. we hear from the kic's new chairman in his first interview. >> we talked about a lot of things, whether it be the uncertainties around china, and the fact that they are taking a step away from public markets and increasing their exposure to alternatives just because of how far we have come in public markets and he actually thinks that for his rally to continue the fed will have to lower interest rates, there a little too high right now, to seek a broad-based rally ahead. if we are looking at some weakness coming through, overnight, those cash markets were shut, so we were looking at u.s. european markets as a proxy for what may be in-store with us today. we are at 5.1 get on the two-year yields. futures lower by a fifth --
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.05%, and we have weakness coming through in oil prices which gets into what we are seeing across the region in terms of weakness coming through here. >> it really is a question of what demand will be coming from china, but you mentioned the question that traders are facing now is there more room to run in the valley -- rally, is it looking overboard, when you look at where we are with global stocks, the line in white is the world index and that is looking at developed markets. we are sitting at the highest level since april of last year. asian stocks, a little bit of a different picture. we have seen that run up and we are yet to get back to the levels that we had in january. that. -- that time was when they were so optimistic about the preopening story, and traders have been disappointed by that. if you traded in the session today, you saw euro stocks benchmark down by 1% tonight, and right now we look range bound and japan is looking for a
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weaker start, but that contract is liquid and not a reliable indicator. we are looking fairly flat and there is a lot of weighted recovery, especially with the stimulus, and what we can expect with tensions between beijing and washington. >> cautiously optimistic takeaways because u.s. and china did agree to boost dialogue after's -- after antony blinken made his trip. we have the details, if we rewind 24 hours ago when we were talking about this i feel like these are more optimistic. >> a little bit more optimistic but i am a pessimist by nature. so i have to look at the real situation, right. i would not be in the news business if i was not a pessimist. but i am not going to add to the rhetoric that some have leveled blame on the media for
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continuing this at, or anti-u.s. from their perspective -- whatever perspective. these two gentlemen meeting is a good thing. they met for 35 minutes in the great hall of the people, xi jinping had his moment to say his piece as it antony blinken and does it pave the way for a possible meeting between xi jinping and joe biden, they have not met since november at the g20 in bali. yes, we are closer to a possible phone call, but you call or meeting then we were 24 hours ago, but it does not mean that we are going -- it is going to happen. keep in mind that shortly after his plane left beijing that the minister of foreign affairs put out a statement essentially saying that xi jinping meeting with blinken was merely a courtesy. with a for dignitary, a top diplomat visited, it was a pretty c4 xi jinping and they leveled the blame on
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deteriorating u.s. china relationships at the feet of the united states. that there needs to be more changes. no progress was reported on the most sticky issues, being taiwan, we had the force -- foreign minister telling antony blinken in more than seven hours of tops that taiwan is the core of the core issues that are deteriorating relations between china and the united states. let's get antony blinken's take on those talks between him and the foreign minister and others which left which lasted for hours. -- which lasted for hours. >> progress takes time. it is not the progress of one trip. my hope and expectation is that we will have better to medications and better engagement going forward. that is certainly not going to solve every problem between us, far from it. it is critical to doing what we both agree is necessary and that
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is responsibly managing our relationship. it is in the interest of the united states to do that and interest of china to do that. it is in the interest of the world. >> blinken says he did raise concern about the provocative acting -- actions in the taiwan strait and south china sea, but as you can see, the chinese side dug in their heels on the issue of taiwan. no change from beijing's perspective there. >> that is the pessimist in you, steve. might be the same thing, might be different. you are also fairly pragmatic. we know that as well. as far as that is concerned what is possible? steve: there has to be some optimism and pragmatism met -- mixed when you are assisting these talks. any meeting between xi jinping and biden or even a phone call would be extremely possible given the fact that they have not talked in six months. the one issue that antony
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blinken did bring up repeatedly with the chinese side is the complete lack of military-military, that kind of dialogue. example five more recently at the sugarloaf dialogue in singapore when the u.s. tried to make it overture to the defense minister of china with lloyd austin, the u.s. defense secretary, in singapore. but again being rebuffed. there is no dialogue right now, between the pentagon and the chinese equivalent. so that makes it much more difficult to limit the chance of this calculation or mis-estimations in the taiwan strait. blinken as the top diplomat wants to open those dialogue channels back open. >> stephen engle they. before u.s. lawmakers will travel -- they are, before u.s.
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lawmakers traveled to china, they called on foreign and other massive producers to cut conditions with china, the companies dependence on china more broadly as well, and it seems that they are planning to build a battery factory using chinese technology. the u.s. china select committee shows that chinese firms account for more than half of the electric vehicle battery market. >> to continue the conversation around china and the premium that has been built into this market, whether that is transitory or semipermanent, we spoke with 130 billion dollars -- a $170 billion wealth fund in china, and they see these longer-term risks permeating as long and as far as they could see. they spoke with the pic and his
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first ever tv interview and he told us there is actually plenty at stake as beijing and washington attempt to repair some frayed relationships. >> the most important great -- risk factor is the decoupling of the u.s. and china. for example, if it proceeds like a cold war. i think it would become a devastating impact. on all the economy. >> our next guest is not investing in china, she says that she is seeking management for shareholders, not those on -- focused on policy. always good to have you with us. one of the ways that you benefit in terms of staying on the right side of your investments in china is to invest along policy lines.
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even if we get more stimulus and even if we see an improvement or at least a leveling out of geopolitical tensions, there is nothing compelling to you about this market? >> not at the present time. china, for us, remains a problem because of the lack of alignment of interest with shareholders and that has been persistent, even before the heightened geopolitical tensions that we see today. that's another nail in the comfort for us as far as investing in china because it brings up binary risks which really cannot be hedge. it is very difficult for us. you also have the ongoing headwinds faced by china, particularly with regards to the property market, which comprises the majority of wealth in china. while xi jinping might not care about the stock market, he certainly cares about the property market and we will expect to see stimulus to stabilize that market.
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but his policy focuses on bringing china back to the heyday of investors globally, and i think that is a low priority, not one that concerns us directly because they don't fit the model of the commodities reinvested. -- we invest in. david: is that sort of a blanket policy prescription from your end that non-china exposure, including non-china proxies, the apples and tesla's who get a significant portion of their profits from the chinese market? >> we cannot rule out those companies because they are prevalent everywhere in the market. we invest a great deal in japan and they are connected to the chinese economy. nonetheless, there are other forces which could well be more powerful and upset the negative effect of the slow growth in china which will affect all of asia and all of the world, it being the world's factory.
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i think the best way to think about it for us is that we would avoid strategically sensitive sectors. because of binary risks. when the market to cake -- takes a huge dive look for opportunities, as we did a year and a half ago, when the market declined substantially and that was the clothing sector companies which are not strategic at all. we will look to invest in china and some companies have memberships that align with us, but they have not been cheap. and they are, we will step in and take a position. so, it's not a blanket erasure of the possibility of investing in china, but there are so many things stacked against the way that we invest which makes it hard for us to take a position on china. dave -- >> you are constructive when it
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comes to things like samsung in the broader chip cycle nearing a bottom. i'm guessing with less aid because of the issues that are affecting that sector as well? >> yes, we think the chip cycle is bottoming out and there are many ways to profit from that as it recovers. everyone is in love with nvidia, it is a wonderful company. but when a company trades at 200 plus times earnings, it is very difficult for a value investor like us to invest. there are many companies that will profit from the chip cycle turning around and from the excitement over ai and these companies that provide supporting services, materials, and they are often ignored because they are not well-known known and many of these companies are in asia. so in japan for instance, there is a small company we like which just does high-quality fluoride
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compounds which are used in chipmaking. but they are ignored. there are also companies that distribute chips which we think will also do very well and there is one in japan called -- which we think will do very well and has done very well. but it was ignored for years. there are many ways to profit from the turnaround in chips which don't just rely on the strength of the chinese recovery. david: you'll be rejoining us, we talked about japan a little bit, they had a lot of stock ideas from dalton investments. we will be back a couple minutes from now and more on the exclusive interview we just had with the sovereign wealth fund here in south korea, the chairman and ceo of kic and why they are banking on alternative
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assets admitted all of this market volatility, coming up here, we are talking energy with the australian center for energy, how to invest for that, how certain countries have advantages in terms of the global energy supply, what exactly does that mean. analysis later this hour. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> good morning from the asia-pacific welcome back to the show as we count down to the open of trade and markets here in seoul and tokyo. while we are talking about tokyo it seemed very recent that we were talking about years of work shirt and warren buffett adding to their in many ways adding to
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white the reason -- the market kept going up. since then, i don't think the nikkei has actually registered a weekly decline which in many ways shows that he does still have it, golden touch. -- in fact golden touch. >> the 11th straight week of gains we are in now if i am correct, which is just an incredible strategy. especially when you take a look at potentially the fund flows that have been coming out of china and perhaps going into japan, the fund flows from u.s. investors, that has to be the warren buffett effect. that's the man himself. let's bring back our guest. we have been waiting to get your views on this incredible japan rally because yes it makes sense, the components of it makes sense. but so many of these components have been around for a while now that the expectations of
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corporate governance reform, whether this is a longer-term story, what is interesting about it and suggests that it could have legs which are for real? christ we are thrilled to see the mac -- market go up. we have been ready for a long time. what has made a difference is the accumulation of activities by the government and the talk exchange. and in particular the announcement -- the stock exchange. and in specific the announcement that they had listing requirements to remain on the prime section which is the best section of the newly organized stock exchange. the fact that there is a list of tests that need to be met as well as a timeline really let -- lit a fire under the managements of japanese companies to do somebody to improve the performance and liquidity of their shares. and we have seen a dramatic change, not uniform but
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dramatic, in the behavior of corporate management and in their attitudes towards shareholders like us. don't ask for much. we ask for what the government's have been asking for -- the government has been asking for, treating shareholders by allowing them to act more like owners at but disturbing a greater percentage of earnings to shareholders in the form of dividends or buybacks and having a more diverse board so that they can make better decisions on what to do going forward. that is all we ask for and we do this one by one and it is published on our website. we are one of several activists who are seeing results finally that is very gratifying. we think this really does have legs because the market was recently priced after this large rally and japan is likely going for the first time in decades,
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faster than western economies, which is remarkable. and that can have some prolonged effects because finally we are seeing wages go up which is a way of sustaining consumer spending. there are many reasons for -- to be bullish. david: i'm glad you brought it up here, how much of this rally has to do with those structural changes, and how much has to do with the boj having actually into inflation, if they do lean into inflation can this rally survived that change? -- survive that change? >> there is a long way to go before that becomes a problem as it is in the west. simply because japan has come through decades where there has been no growth and no inflation at all. japan is cheap. if you are a visitor or looking for china plus one is a supply,
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japan is a great candidate because it is still very cheap. when does it become a problem, way in the future. right now it is a virtuous cycle because inflation is permitting wage growth to occur which is happening, which then can boost the economy. it is a long distance from moving from a disinflationary cycle to becoming a problem on inflation. we are just not there. david: but we can worry about that later. thank you so much, chairman at dalton investments, plenty more ahead on daybreak asia. just thinking out loud. plenty ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪ avalarahhhhhh what if tax rates change? ahhhhhh filing sales tax returns? ahhhhhh business license guidance? ahhhhhh -cross-border sales? -ahhhhhh -item classification? -ahhhhhh does it connect with acc...? ahhhhhh ahhhhhh ahhhhhh
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david: something to look forward
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to, the annual shareholder meeting, the sun of softbank seo breaking his silence for the first time in seven months. our temp reporter is here to talk us through why this is a significant appearance from the billionaire. >> there is a lot of focus right now on ai and the chip business which means that everyone is really focused on how the potential planned ipo for their unit will do and everyone is kind of hoping that the sun will speak little -- that son will speak about the ipo which is expected to raise billions of dollars but we will have to see what he can say about the ipo tomorrow.
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haidi: i've been a bit scared to ask about this question, but what is their outlook? >> as you can see, their shares have risen a lot, in the last couple of weeks which puts them in a pretty good position, but the market reversal has been quite sudden and you never know what and how sentiment will change going forward. and softbank's business continues to be heavily exposed to market volatility and share price moves. so all of this really still kind of depends on global equity market moves and how technology evaluation goes forward including how chip markets perform. we will see. >> our technology reporter there
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with the latest on softbank. going out to sweeping shop -- staffing changes in big software names. kkr has overhauled its private equity team, a new executive chairman has been appointed for the region and the cohead of private equity will become the deputy executive chairman. this comes two years after they raised their ever -- biggest ever buyout fund in the region. the ubs ceo has hinted that credit suisse may be due for a down size of its investment banking business. they wrote an attendant -- an opinion piece that it will reduce risks for the combined bank. much more ahead on daybreak asia, this is bloomberg. ♪ when i was his age, we had to be inside to watch live sports. but with xfinity, we get the fastest mobile service and can stream down the street or around the block.
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>> this is daybreak asia, with a check on markets 30 minutes from the open in seoul, sydney and tokyo. dk futures coming online with the sustainable contract guiding towards a weaker start. u.s. markets shut on monday but we saw weakness coming through the asian sessions on monday. the focus for investors today is going to be looking at whether there is more room to run in the global stocks rally or if it is time to take a breather and assess the run out. and japan is a good example given that we have seen japan stocks trading at levels we have not seen since the early 90's. this chart here looking at how investors are starting to position and it really is this shift we are starting to see into smaller cap names away from the blue-chip stocks. taking a look at the small index
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which checks small-cap stocks, the bars in white, and the 30 index which looks at the top 30 most liquid biggest names in japan and you can see here this interesting phenomenon developing over the past few days and that is that we are seeing small caps at the benchmark there where the index is outperforming what we are seeing in the big names. the other interesting development if you change over now, to japanese stocks, is the move to shortselling activity picking up. this line taking a look at the activity we see which now accounts for more than 35% of the volume up from below 30% at the beginning of june which was the first time we had seen that since early august. it is certainly something we are going to be keeping an eye on. haidi: in this kind of dare i say so what precarious investment environment, we are lengthening -- listening closer than ever to some of the biggest
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names in investment, the sovereign wealth funds navigating this landscape and this is a great conversation what you had with the accretive investment corporation about their views on all of the risks and opportunities out there. david: and i think the context is that last year, 2020 two, was really a bad year. we talked about this portfolio and one of the things i asked, the chairman and the ceo of kc is whether or not the portfolio is dead. his exact response to fire member creek -- if i remember correctly was that it was dead temporarily. they got pretty burned in public markets last year. their allocation this year is in many ways informed by what happened last year and if they did not increase their exposure to alternatives last year, for example, losses would have been much worse. they took that reality and what
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they're doing now is they are looking to increase their allocation to nonpublic markets and taking half a step back from public stocks, public bonds, which by the waste sell 60:40. -- by the way, sell 64. they want to go into private credit and private debt. because the market will be anchored by that part of the portfolio. we spoke to him about his first ever tv interview with the chairman of the kic. >> the current interest level is very high. i think it has to be lower than it is now for an market to see a rising trend in the face of the economy slowdown. like this. maybe the fourth quarter, or maybe the next, the first quarter of next year.
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>> is that why you're more in favor of fixed income, would you say fixed income over equity markets is your favorite asset class right now? >> yes, i think equity markets, i think the possibility of the sharp drop of the price is a risky asset is very limited. and a fixed income interest rate is a little bit higher. and if the interest rate does not fall significantly, the current interest level is very attractive. >> are you looking outside traditional assets like stock and bond markets, where -- what exposure would you increase? >> i think the expansion of our
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market would be helpful. between the end of 2021, the ai, the automated investment ratio was 17.5, but we increased 5% of alternative investments. if we look at the returns of the traditional assets, it is 17.5 percent, but maybe 20-23%. and the target at the end of last year was 22.58%. now 23%. our target is 25%. by 2025. david: part of your strategy
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within alternatives is private debt and private credit. how much are you looking to invest in private credit? >> it is one of the most promising sectors under the circumstances. our portion is around 10% of our alternative investment, and we are actually trying to increase maybe 15% or above 15%. >> what type of yields are available for people who are looking at private credit. i know that you are actively looking to increase in. when is that available? >> we will be directly monday. when we land directly to blue-chip companies with a cash flow, that would be very attractive. david: are there any specific
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industries or sectors that you are looking to be active in when it comes to private credit? or geographies or countries or territories, what is the most interesting part to you, with private credit? >> absolutely -- actually, private credit, there is no specific reason for private credit, generally, alternative investment, in advanced countries like the u.s. and europe, is preferred country because there are a lot of data sourcing opportunities because and leading gps. haidi: the korean investment corporation new chairman speaking to us there. figuring out what the region can do to so use -- he sees on its
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potential, this is bloomberg. ♪
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haidi: shrinking of the green premium when it comes to jet fuel. let's take a look at lng, shifting that demand, sending prices lower, summer is kicking in and demand for heating has dropped across the region despite the fact -- uptick in the last few days, demand remains weak and let's get the full outlook on this from our lng analyst. you don't see benchmark prices seeing the high of last year? >> that is correct. on a fundamental level we are seeing that the market looks bearish, but we do think that prices will show more activity compared to the first half of the summer, we still see europe inventories at healthy levels and it suggests that europe
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should be able to refill by the start of september and overall lng flows to europe where higher than last year. -- were higher than last year. this should produce pressure which will drive things down work and we don't see any bullish factors on the asian side. we still think that sentiments are high for the coming midterm which we will try to capitalize on. it for example in norway, there are supply projects and other events that make resulting crisis spikes, but we seek crises reaching the same height as last year. -- see crises reaching the same height as last year. -- prices reaching the same height as lesser. david: can the market absorb
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that, particularly in north asia? : four north asia we expected to rise as big summer settles in and we are also seeing increased expectations for higher than normal temperatures in japan korea and china, but we don't think this weather is going to give an upside in the region. and researching prices has also killed the limited interest we were seeing in south asian buyers and japan and korea are taking inventories, and we show that there inventories are more than 70% full and south korea and more than 60% in japan which is much higher than the storage for the regions. so they need to rely on withdrawals from any demand on weather. china has been showing sluggish economic growth which is
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impacting gas demand and we don't expect chinese buyers to continue to looking for more because of the increase in prices and lack of support for the downstream demand. we did see more buyers looking for rdx's from chinese terminals, but you're a near the capacity is still looking less than last year. -- year on year the capacity is still looking less than last year. haiti: -- >> we have seen this demand drop, especially as the philippines and china look for a spot with hong kong as well. are these markets likely to support longer-term demand? >> certainly, in the longer term we do think that these markets will support the demand but on the short-term we think thailand is the only country with substantial lng demand potential
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because of the lack of sufficient supply in hot weather which has forced them to look -- adapt. looking at other countries like the philippines, providing support with prices, if you look at vietnam we do not see it likely to do -- price because of the foundational terminals. but in the mid-longer-term, demand will rise from these countries, looking at vietnam it has just released its power plan and that is showing very high dependency on domestic gas and lng imports and these two could account for more than 35% of capacity. we will see lng in southeast asia, and for the longer-term long term growth may take a hit because of decarbonization initiatives.
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david: our lng analyst from bloomberg india, perfect jumping up -- off point, the longer-term story on pivoting this energy mix in the region here. when you look at the energy mix, fossil fuels will remain the largest component in the energy system but diversification is critical. to meet rising energy demand. and of course not see her girls further -- zero goals further out into the future. the executive director of the asean center joins us. thank you for making time. i want to get right to it. at one point in the future do you think that non-fossil fuels will make it to the majority of the energy mix in the region? >> yes. i think currently in southeast asia we are facing a potential
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to be the net importers of gas in 2025 and the net importers of coal in 2029. that is where energy comes into place, and we can also avoid the potential of hydrocarbon becoming such a large part of our energy. david: understood. i guess part of that transition plan is decommissioning coal assets, coal powered plants and if you look at the progress it seems to be there. a lot of these factories are on the younger side. how much progress will be need to see in terms of decommissioning those assets?
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>> on average the coal asset depreciation will be around 12 years. that is quite a big challenge for people who might be missing out. because members can start looking at the affordability of the energy and that is something that is important. apart of it -- a part of it will be cold becoming less consumed than we can produce because there will be strong increases. the potential will come into place right after production. ask how big is the gap when it comes to financing needs?
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>> we did some study on these. we need approximately hundred trillion -- one trillion u.s. dollars, and we also need to study the risk association so what would be the gross when we are looking at the perspective approach. this sort of depreciation would require 34 billion u.s. dollars. those are the funds that we need and -- [indiscernible]
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>> where should that financing come from, is there a mismatch at the moment when you take a look at public and private financing, government finances, is there a better model we should be looking to? >> the financial part of that is still there, you have to combine the private and public sector for financing these financial schemes. the challenge is that we are not looking at this from a financial perspective but looking at the entire supply chain, including those solutions. there are some challenges on these investment perspectives. we have to find out how to solve
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those issues on providing not only financing support but also making it viable in itself. haidi: the executive director at the acn center for energy. plenty more to come. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> boeing says it is looking to increase production of its best-selling 737 max model 242 -- 242 models per month by the end of this year. they told us more about how they punished -- plan to manage supply chain challenges. >> the shock is unique. it has tempered me on how approach labor on the ford -- the forward-looking. we have to be more conservative on that. but each crisis you have to manage it. >> supply chain is coming back and you have to take the 73 site -- 737 lineup 38. when does that happen? >> i can give you an exact date. it is exactly definitely within
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the year. we are very much within that moment. we are about to go to 38 and then we will look at a break in the 42 before the end of the year. >> before the >> >> end of the year. >> yes. yes. >> you have a 767 program which struggles with regulations coming up, you applied for an exemption. does that mean i'm not going to say a 787 anytime soon -- ca 787 anytime soon? >> our current airplanes to a great job delivering the right commission answer. in the future we will look at other versions of the 787 for the national act, because it has the right size -- >> if you don't get the exception do you go for it? >> we are looking at it but we are focused on the 67 as the next issue. >> let's talk a little bit about
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what comes next. this is an industry that is going to greek supply constraint for a while. is that something that you are going to -- going to be supply constraint for a while. is that something you're going to -- a lot of people had downstream issues. does that apply to you? >> what we look at is the long-term demand and then we have to factor in what the supply chain can do. we have always tried to be conservative in terms of net output, not to overproduce to the market, we know that is bad for pricing. we are going to be responsible on responding to demand. it has got to be done within the capabilities of the supply chain. i think that the long and short, we want to try to run right at demand or slightly under.
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we never overproduce and keep the financial viability of the assets there for the airline and and those who invest in these assets. >> am i going to see a big order soon? >> were going to see some nice orders. david: the real deal on the deal from stan deal. speaking with our man at the paris air show. we have a couple markets coming online and we are watching a lot of these names in japan after warren buffett and berkshire hathaway said they braced state to an average of 8.5% across these trading houses. could get move-in here, the opening bell, minutes away -- movement here. the movement -- opening bell, and its way. this is bloomberg. ♪
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david: good morning from the asia. this is daybreak: asia, counting down to the open of major markets in tokyo, sydney and here where i am in seoul. the story across markets was, we didn't get a lead out of wall street. cash markets were shot. there was weakness in europe. going into the japanese equity market open, there is an additional plot twist with berkshire upping their state -- stake in big trading house names. >> absolutely. how much further can brokerages rally, given berkshire's investment in them being upped? the opens from japan, korea and
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australia, we are taking a look at trading companies in particular because there are another -- a number of trading houses that could rise. berkshire hathaway has raised the stake in the firm's to an average of more than 8.5%, doubling down on warren buffett's favorite stocks. mitsubishi coming online unchanged, an indication there will be trading activity. we will have to wait before we see live pricing. it is still where investors are looking for more opportunities in these markets and we are seeing a rotation from the blue-chip names into smaller stocks, looking for any value. we have seen the small index at the bottom of the screen outperforming the top 30 names on the index over the past few days. we are a little bit weaker, not a big lead in due to u.s.
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markets shut but the yen holding close to the 142 level, something that could help exporting names. what is happening in korea, we are focusing on a few stories, broadly we see the kospi coming online a little weaker. the nasdaq or cause back -- kosdaq a little weaker. juneteenth holiday on monday so no trading but the korean won fairly steady, dropped around 1% in the prior set -- session, because of concerns on the uncertainty over the fed breaking height as well. these areas weighing on asian currencies and making it difficult for them to outperform against the greenback over the long-term. in australia, taking a look at
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how the asx 200 has come online, we are seeing it flat. we have the rba meeting minutes doing the next hour for the june meeting. traders are looking for clues as to whether we can expect hikes. australia battling to contain inflation even though it has been more subdued than other countries. brent crude coming online, flat. that is the theme, wait and see from investors. david: to your point, the battle for control of inflation is what it sounds like. a very boring movie. i'm looking at the treasury market. yields pushing higher, the 10 year, the u.s. 10 year up six to 380, the two-year towards four point 8%. let's bring in mark franklin, managing director and senior for
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asset allocation. let's talk about the gilt markets, back 5% on the short and. what do you think? does that look attractive? would you stay away? >> i think bull markets have been forced to reprice and the pricing for break -- rate cuts for the u.s., by the end of this year does have been fully priced out. we have six or seven rate cuts priced in for next year. core inflation, if it remains sticky, there will be a challenge to that existing pricing. you have to be selective in fixed income markets. we are looking for areas where central banks have been proactive getting monetary policy to the right spot. and have engineered a spot where real yields are positive giving them policy flexibility, to pause or if inflation comes down
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quickly, to cut. mexico is a market we have liked. the mexican peso has benefited from growing fbi as far as this theme of diversifying supply chains. we are selective but when it comes to the u.s. rate market, there is a risk of repricing. david: do i hear you correctly that the preference in following policy with central banks, you brought a mexico, the central banks turned the corner from tightening towards easing? are you seeing that in the asia-pacific? marc: we aren't he had seeing signs of easing. the point we are making is, this cycle, many emerging market central banks have done a good job anticipating the inflation challenges faced by the u.s. and western economies. they have moved their rates in some cases well ahead of the
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fomc and they find themselves with a better grip on inflation, which means the real yields are growing up. we like those markets where policy credibility is high and policy flexibility is high. haidi: his china interesting to you? speaking about liars in terms of where we are in this cycle -- outliers in terms of where we are in the cycle. marc: the mood is shifting in terms of appetite and willingness to open up the policy stimulus. some of the initiatives that are rumored are in the old policy, whether it is cutting deposit and lending rates, supporting the real estate sector, encouraging financial institutions to allocate greater amounts to equity markets. in general, given that sentiment has become depressed in the last weeks and months, versus the
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start of the year, when cyclical recovery was the case. it sets up the potential for a tactical bounce in chinese assets. that the reason we started to allocate back a bit of capital towards asia-u.s. dollar credits because you have spreads starting to tighten from a wide base. something between 900-1000 basis points for u.s. dollar asian yield credits. i yield of 14% is attractive. you think the market would warm up to the idea of a shift in a policy cycle. haidi: sounds like you are interested in the credit play rather than china or china can -- exposed equities. what would change that view? marc: the structural risks are there. namely demographic challenges, the economic model and the evolution of the policymaking framework.
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what you are looking for is a risk reward that is favorable. if any policy stimulus is met with a muted reaction by risk appetites. we prefer credit over equities. it is something we will have to wait and see play out over the next weeks. david: very quickly, are you surprised with caps rising? which one wins out? marc: mega cap growth has done well because you have had a window of opportunity where inflation is coming down, growth is remaining positive, and that creates conditions for a preference for growth and assign may be growth will become scarce. if inflation remains persistent, that will challenge the leadership of the gross -- growth complex. but you need growth to remain in
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positive territory because if it doesn't, there will be a shift back towards growth in an increasing scarce growth environment. haidi: always great to chat with you. let's get back to annabelle for a look at the movers. annabelle: taking a look at the japan trading firms that have come online. a move higher across the board. that is after berkshire hathaway came out with a statement they are planning to increase investments to an average of 8.5%. they have reached that point but they are planning to get in 9.9% of each of the five japanese firms and these names, in terms of the reaction, we are keeping an eye on mitsubishi because it is clear analysts have been struggling to keep pace with the stock gains. mitsubishi has increased nearly
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50% since warren buffett announced plans to up his stakes in this company. it is the biggest trading firm, so this price target, the line in blue, that has been raised around 18% over the past month. in terms of how much further we can rally on these names, some names saying the upside could be contained from here on in, given that berkshire hathaway's purchases have been factored into the share price already. some names to watch across the session, mitsubishi writing -- rising nearly 4%. another we are focusing on, japanese lenders. these names are weaker this morning. we had a reuters report, japan's financial services agency reportedly has sounded out these lenders about their exposure to geopolitical risk from china. the banks, reporting they were asked for details of plans in
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the event tensions between china and the west escalate. the megabanks declined to comment, but we are seeing reaction. weaker and the topix trading to the downside. haidi: still ahead, taking a look at china's commercial banks. expected to lower primer lending rate -- prime lending rates. we continue to wait for signs of stimulus. before that, the u.s. secretary of state anthony blinken wrapping up his china trip with a meeting with president xi. we will have analysis. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> progress is hard. it takes time and it isn't the
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product of one visit, one conversation. my hope is that we will have better communications, better engagement going forward. that isn't going to solve every problem. far from it, but it is critical to doing what we agree is necessary, and that is responsibly managing the relationship. it's in the interest of the u.s. and china to do that, and it is the interest of the world. haidi: that is antony blinken on easing tensions between washington and beijing following his trip, which culminated in a meeting with president xi jinping. amanda is a senior analyst at the international crisis group. when you look at the bright side, the glass is half full. communications are important. will this go some way to avoiding military conflict? is that the best we can hope for?
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>> i think we should see this as a positive first step to the two sides remove -- resuming regular exchanges at the senior levels, and it is a good start because these communications are important right now, given that there is a risk that the u.s. and china will miss read each other's intentions. at the same time i think we have seen clearly out of this visit that the positions of the two sides remain far apart on a number of issues. haidi: you allude to these issues. it is hard to see common ground reached regardless of how many conversations you have at high levels, that the tech decoupling, economic decoupling, the geopolitical tensions in this part of the world and the south china sea and the pacific not to mention taiwan, they are so far apart, would you say there is any element you could
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get them closer together, even with more engagement? amanda: i think what is positive is the sides are basically saying they are willing to get back on track to last november, when the leaders met in bali, agreed to create a process to begin to develop the principles that would guide the relationship and stabilize the relationship. we saw a couple small practical outcomes that came out of this visit. the two sides want to increase people to people exchange, increase the numbers of direct flights, and on the issues where they remain divided, the big one is really that the two sides still have different approaches to the overall relationship. both sides want to avoid war, but they differ over how. washington has been saying we think we can compete and cooperate at the same time. we want to reduce the cost of
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competition by engaging in more dialogue, setting up guardrails, and cooperating. but beijing has continued to reject this approach. they said you can't have it both ways. that is because it doesn't want to make competition easier for washington. it is seeking to reduce pressures it is coming under from washington and its allies, and it thanks megan clearer the risks of competition is the way to do so. david: amanda, david here. in what sense, our foreign companies looking at china plus one strategies for example, diversifying supply chains, was there anything from this past weekend's meetings including the one with antony blinken in the chinese president, where their key takeaways from those talks that they can extrapolate onto corporate strategy? amanda: i think blinken made
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efforts to try to explain the american de-risking strategy. he took pains to distinguish between decoupling and de-risking. i think even under de-risking, we will see the biden administration continue to restrict chinese access to advanced semiconductors and the sorts of equipment and know-how that is necessary for semiconductors. the administration sees it as a national security interest. following this visit, we are likely to see much more senior level engagement, including on economic issues. i tend to think the sides are seeking to stabilize at least the economic piece of the relationship over the next couple months. david: to your point, how much more senior can we get apart
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from blinken meeting xi jinping? do we get a phone call between president biden and president xi ? amanda: the two sides may be working towards an in person meeting, perhaps a phone call. the u.s. is hosting a pack in san francisco this year. some of this could be seen as a small step towards a bigger leader to leader in person meeting in november. david: what else are we missing? what is missing from the headlines? amanda: just to say that in his press conference yesterday, blinken noted that the chinese didn't agree to restore military to military channels. this is concerning, given the number of close encounters we have seen recently between the two militaries in the air and at sea. this goes back to differences in
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approach. the chinese continue to be skeptical the these communications are in their interest. they believe by engaging in these discussions, they will reduce risk for the u.s. and that will encourage more u.s. behavior they don't like. namely, more american military presence and activities close to china. i think from that, we can see although the two sides are interested in stabilizing things, there are limits to how far they can go now. david: right. final question, best case scenario. the u.s. elections are 16 months away. is that a risk to any progress between now and then, particularly if joe biden loses? amanda: i think there is a political calendar to be sensitive to right now. we are starting to see campaigning begin in the u.s.,
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and during campaign season, candidates on both sides, from both parties, will be inclined to take stronger rhetorical stances on china. china has been a key focus of discussions domestically. it is an issue that is shared across the aisle. i think there is a closing window in terms of improving the relationship, because we will run into posturing on the u.s. side because of domestic politics soon. david: let's use that as a starting point for our next conversation. thank you. i'm grateful for your time. for our viewers here and bloomberg clients, get a roundup of all the stories as we get warmed up for the trading day
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ahead. today's edition of a break, check that out. there is the handshake between president xi and antony blinken, the just supposition -- juxtaposition into what we aren't and are in terms of relations. customize your settings to get the news on the industries and assets that care about. dayb on your bloomberg. ♪
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leaving analysts further behind in terms of catch up. they can't keep up with the rally. our asian equities reporter is in tokyo. what can you tell us? >> he came in april saying he would increase the stakes in the trading companies and he is doing that now. holding stake at average of eight .5%, saying it might go as much is 9.9% at some point. we are seeing trading companies are reacting to those. this year, since warren buffett said he will increase the stakes , stock prices of these companies went up so much. the wholesale trading firm center is the top performing sector in the topix index. haidi: trading companies have done well. is this the buffet effect or are
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other drivers at play? winnie: warren buffett is a long-term value investor. his voice of letting the world know trading companies are attractive, that is a boost but it is not just that. when we look at the solid earnings of these companies, helped by the surge in commodity prices and the week yen as well as the share buyback announcements, those helped the trading companies reach record highs, refreshing their record highs a couple times since buffett said he will invest more. we can see the biggest trading company, the price went up 40% after buffett announced, after his travel to japan. the topix was up about 15% so the contrast is stunning.
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david: it is crazy. this is the land of the rising sun. the market looks like it is trying to touch the son. that has gone parabolic. 10 weeks ago we started off with warren buffett in tokyo talking about increasing the stake. do we get another 10 weeks rally because of the increased stake in these trading houses? winnie: good question. because he said, i guess he is going to increase the stake to about 9.9% for five of the trading companies that he has stakes in, we still see a bit of space for that improvement. the equities market is probably still going to raise for a while and the effect of the
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announcement yesterday reminded people the japanese equity market is hot. it is out there. that gives hope to investors in general. speaking of analysts raising prices, price targets, when we look broadly over the past month, trading companies saw one of the most increase in price hikes from analysts. last week i remember every single day, some company was raising the price targets. david: if analysts are correct, we could get every day again. as we look at trading house stocks in japan, the smelt up in yields is the other big story to track as we approach major when people come, they say they've tried lots of diets, nothing's worked or they've lost the same 10, 20, 50 pounds over and over again. they need a real solution.
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haidi: breaking news out of new zealand, the government has announced an angle oriented the domestic banking sector amid concerns lenders are raking in express of -- excessive profits. they are looking at competition in the banking sector. finance ministers say banks make high profits so they have agreed to a market study into personal banking services to ensure the market is working for new zealanders. the antitrust watchdog will complete the report by august 2024. the government has voiced concerns about banking profits over the past few months in particular as we have seen lenders reporting earnings increase at a time when the broader economy faces surging cost-of-living. the decision comes less than four months from a general election. there is further scope for the
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government tact on those issues before the vote. the big four banks, australia's major lenders hold about 90% of deposits, talking about anz westpac operating as well as commonwealth bank of australia. if you were wondering which lenders to watch out for. let's get back to bill for a look at the markets. annabelle: australian bank names, these are the ones that are most prominent. not much of a reaction at this stage, something to keep an eye on. when you look at how they are performing in today's trading, half and are underway for japan, korea and australia, the gmm function shows the broad focus is down to what we had overnight in the bond space. kicked off with the u.k. to your guilt yield surpassing 5% for
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the first time since 2008. catch treasuries opening at the top of the hour, yields moving higher at the front end of the curve. taking a look at gains, the 10 year yield up eight basis points but broadly, bond yields are higher. the concern from traders is that central banks are done with rate hikes. we still have recession and inflation concerns, and we are seeing yield curve inversion deepening across a range of countries and economies. it is a little bit of strength, currency weakness, the korean won down slightly, the japanese yen holding around 100 82, just past it. in terms of stocks, it is mostly to the downside but broadly we are looking at range bound in the days trading.
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a big lead from wall street, public holiday on monday but the focus is on what happens in china in the next hour. david: the loan prime rates are coming out and the banks will set that and tell us what they said that at for june. this alphabet soup, if you are confused, interest rates and china moved on the seven day reverse repose. they moved on the mlf and it is those bottom two on deck. 365 -- 3.65 on the 1, 4 point three on the five-year. becky has forecasts on these two. i'm looking at your predictions. tell us why you think we will get a deeper cut on the five compared to the one. we expect both to be reduced. becky: we are looking for an asymmetric car -- cut of the
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rates for five basis points for the one year and 10 for the five-year. we are looking for a deeper cut on the back and because we believe there is more need to support the real estate sector. more importantly the most important thing to week credit growth comes from the housing sector, particularly mortgage great -- rate growth has decelerated and recent data indicating mortgage loan growth might dip to negative territory in the next few months. david: that is not good. inflation is almost at zero. real rates are much higher than most people appreciate. how much lower do you think rates can get across the alphabet soup of interest rates in china towards the second half of the year? becky: we see more room for both rate cut and supply cut.
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china's real rate is too high by global standards, compared with peers, or by its own historical standard. if we look at cpi inflation, it is near zero. we think cpi inflation in china will likely dip into negative territory because rent prices are declining. food prices are staying relatively weak. we are looking for cpi inflation dipping into the negative territory of somewhere between 0.2, 0.3%, -0.2%, ppi inflation staying negative throughout the year. that is a reflection of a slower recovery of demand compared to supply and to some extent, overcapacity in the manufacturing sector area from this perspective of pboc will need to cut rates further but what we are likely to see is that they will have to cut rates in a symmetric way. for any future mlf rate cut,
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they have to be accompanied with deposit rate cuts to reduce the extent of margin squeezing of the banking sector. haidi: the drag on credit growth and consumption in loan demand comes from households. do you think there is a need for a sizable stimulus package? what would be the most productive stimulus package for you? becky: as we have been seeing come of traditional stimulus measures or monetary policy easing, it is seeing some decreasing incremental benefit. on one hand we believe monetary policy has to say easy to support a better recovery of the economy. on the other hand, fiscal policy is likely to be more effective including the likes of consumption, but more importantly, domestic consumption boosted through the boost of private sector
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investment, which will create more jobs and in turn come up with a better confidence and more sustainable consumption outlook in china. at this stage we believe hugely sizable stimulus package would still be ahead of us, but we are watching for the july committee meeting to look for the direction of the second half. in the meantime we look for the possibility for further relaxation in the real estate sector and industrial sector to support more domestic consumption as well as high-tech manufacturing. from the consumption perspective we can't rule out the possibility of a broadly used consumption point at this stage. haidi: that was going to be my next question. can you boost household confidence and consumer confidence in china without fixing the property sector? becky: so far, the property sector from its current stage is at most to stop being a drag to
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the economy. it is unlikely to be a growth contributor because of the fundamental factors including demographic and so on. if you look at the year to date real estate, it was down by 10% for 2022 and so far this year the performance has actually been worse than expected, down by nearly 7% year to date. without the real estate sector, the recovery will be more difficult. if we look at the other parameters, there are a number of other drags showing a lack of confidence is probably a bigger problem, especially in the private sector. since the start of this year we are seeing a change of composition of the investment in china. the government portion has been increasing while the key investment has decelerated to 0%. the key to revive confidence in a consumption led economy is to
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have a stronger label -- labor market. it over 80% of jobs and china are provided by the private sector so without reviving confidence in the private sector companies, it is difficult to fill the gap left by the real estate sector. haidi: we appreciate your time, becky. as we wait for news of more china stimulus announcements, this is definitely on the move. this story, warren buffett doubling down when it comes to his call on japanese trading houses. see the moves when it comes to up siding, mitsubishi up 5.5%, biggest intraday rise's june. berkshire hathaway has raised its stakes to over 8.5% in japanese trading houses, after the trip to japan by warren buffett saying they would be boosting holdings. we are seeing favored japanese trading firms really trading
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above analyst target. analysts are rushing to raise prices when it comes to these companies as we continue to see the buffet effect deriving shares to new records. -- driving shares to new records. david: analysts say japan is a market they are looking to build further exposure to. analysts tend to be right until they are wrong. in this case, they are chasing that rally in japan. the reason i banter is because we are following the big money. buffett was a big catalyst as far as japanese markets are concerned. we are hearings -- here in seoul this week and we talked to another big fund manager, the second-biggest in korea. we asked what asset allocations
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look like for them after in many ways a terrible 2022. one thing that stood out was, apart from reducing exposure to public markets, stocks and equities and traditional assets, they are going big, as big as they can, to alternatives. they are excited over private credit. have a listen. >> in the current interest level, it is high. so i think it has to be lower than it is now for stock, the stock market to see a rising trend in the face of the economic slowdown like this. maybe the fourth quarter? or maybe the first quarter of next year. >> is that why you are more in favor of fixed income at this point? would you say fixed income over
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equity markets is your favored asset class? >> yes. equity markets, i think the possibility of the sharp drop of the prices of risky assets is very limited. the fixed income interest rate is a little bit higher. and if the interest rate don't fall significantly, the current interest level is very attractive. david: are you looking outside traditional assets, like stock and bond markets? what exposure would you increase? >> the expansion of alternative markets would be very helpful. at the end of 2021, the ai, the
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alternative investment ratio of kic is 17.5, but we increased 5% the alternative investment. if you look at the returns of the traditional assets, it is 17.5, but maybe 2023 -- 20%, 23%. david: what is the target? >> at the end of last year, 22.58% but now, 23%. our target is 25%. by 2025. david: part of your strategy within alternatives is private debt and private credit. how much are you looking to invest in private credit?
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>> private credit is one of the most promising sectors under these circumstances. actually, our portion is around 10% of our alternative investment. actually we are trying to increase maybe 15%, about 15%. >> what type of yields are available for people who are looking at private credit? you are actively looking to increase. >> we are direct lending mainly. when we are direct, when we are lending directly to companies with a high cash flow, that would be very attractive. david: are there any specific industries or sectors that you were looking to be active in when it comes to private credit
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or geography, countries or territories? what is the most interesting part to you right now of private credit? >> actually, private credit, i mean -- there is no specific reason for private credit. generally alternative investment are the best countries like the u.s. and europe. they are preferred countries. that is because there are lots of opportunities and leading gps. haidi: chairman and ceo speaking exclusively to bloomberg. more to come on daybreak: asia. this is bloomberg. ♪ ike changing tax rates or filing returns. avalarahhh ahhh
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haidi: the search is intensifying for a summary missing in the north atlantic. five people are on board. it set off to explore the wreck of the titanic. a reporter joins us with the latest. tourists pay $250,000 for the journey. what do we know? >> we know this diving vessel can go down to 4000 meters. it was on a dive, started sunday
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and they lost communication with it. hours later, they asked for help from the coast guard to find the vessel. there were five people aboard, the pilot and four crew members, or specialists, as they call them, but basically they are people who pay to go deep in the water. david: what is the latest? obviously there is a lot we don't know at this point. have authorities given us any indication of the next steps we are looking at the echo what is the latest if we can extrapolate information? john: there is supposed to be enough oxygen for 96 hours. it has been there over 36 hours. they have a couple more days
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theoretically. but it depends on what happened. it is possible that it floated up to the surface and they haven't found it floating on the surface. like if the power died. typically these vessels would have pinging signals they would send out so you could track them. the fear is that something went wrong when it was deep under water and there is no way to rescue it. haidi: is this kind of expedition common in terms of the demand for this kind of thing? and how frequently this dive has been done before? john: because the seas are rough in the north atlantic for these small craft, there is a small window of opportunity when you can actually go underwater. there is only something like five of these specialized submersibles that can go down to the titanic.
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there is not much opportunity to be able to make these dives. most people who go down are scientists or salvage yours. -- salvagers, people who go down. the kind of tourists who go down, this is the third year for these expeditions to be on journeys out there in this place. so it is like going into space on one of jeff bezos's rockets. one of the guys who was aboard the submersible had been on jeff bezos' rocket. he is the kind of guy who wants to go into space and go underwater. david: we will keep on top of the story, hoping for the best. thank you for getting us up to speed, john.
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there is plenty more ahead here on the show as we digest everything else that has happened. markets are often the u.s., a look ahead at chinese markets opening up in the next hour, lots to watch as far as that is also concerned. this is bloomberg. ♪
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haidi: we have seen this huge resurgence when it comes to travel demand post-covid and a lot of the chinese travelers and tourists and airlines are coming back from the air. it is the paris air show so we are watching that. take a look at this. singapore air versus cathay pacific, which has been the underdog for many reasons. the flights to hong kong have been beleaguered as the result of these broader economic developments and covid zero and covid restrictions, but the fortunes of singapore airlines and cathay are starting to converge in the aftermath. the valuations tell a lot of the story. $17 billion come almost three times that of cathay pacific.
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the difference was $2 billion four years ago. the question is, who is better placed as we see the rebound out of covid? and more broadening as we see the return to travel story? david: that is an interesting point. this goes beyond the performance of the whole market, the home stock market. in cathay's case it is a constraint story. how good can profits be? the return to profit is part of the conversation. they are constrained by resources, for example, talent, pilot. in singapore air's case, it is one of the best-performing airline stocks, outperforming its peer group with things like increasing capacity and capacity for future profits goes into that conversation as well. it is three times larger now than cathay.
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we will see if that closes up. back into markets, looking at the japan story today, overall on the index level we are off but brokerages have been doing well. these trading houses, following news on berkshire increasing their stack -- their stake to 8.5% if i am not mistaken. haidi: it is the warren buffett story. doubling down on the call he made in april when he visited, and that accelerated the broader risk on rally we are seeing across japan equities. after a bit of softness yesterday, we are coming off 10 straight weeks of gains with japanese equities. we will be taking a look at china next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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did you ever stress about us having three kids? no, that was always part of the plan. three kids?! this was never part of the plan! these kids order the lobster mac 'n cheese! what if she wants to play golf? we're going to have to outlaw golf. absolutely no golf in this house! not under my roof! since we started working with empower, all of our financial questions have been answered, so we don't have to worry. so you never- nope. always part of the plan. join 17 million people and take control of your financial future to empower what's next. start today at empower.com hi, i'm katie, i've lost 110 pounds financial future to empower what's next. on golo in just over a year. golo is different than other programs i had been on because i was specifically looking for something that helped with insulin resistance. i had had conversations with my physician indicating that that was probably an issue that i was facing and making it more difficult for me to sustain weight loss. golo has been more sustainable. i can fit it into family life,
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i can make meals that the whole family will enjoy. it just works in everyday life as a mom. it's an amazing thing
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when you show generosity of spirit to someone. and you want people to be saved and to have a better life, then you don't stop. we have been able to reach over 100 million people impacted and affected, and at risk of hiv. the rocket fund takes all of the work that we're doing, all over the world, and looks at the most effective ways, to get resources to them, to get services to them. the idea that we have saved five million people's lives, it's overwhelming. it's everything.

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