haidi: a very good morning, welcome to "bloomberg daybreak: australia." >> we are counting down to raise

a bunch be -- shery: china backstretch's national stability after bosket of uses and apparent mood knee by the wagner group. haidi: investors evaluate the wretched situation, any volume likely to be short-lived. anxiety over rate hikes into recession. shery: new zealand' as per minister begins at a days had a visit seeking to drum up demand in the country's biggest export market. take a look at arguments futures are coming online early in the asian session, we are not necessarily seeing movement after u.s. stocks actually saw the worst week since march, of course, we had the frenzy over ai fading, not to mention chair powell dampened the mood with the more hawkish comments from his senate and house testimony last week. at the same time, we are

watching treasury yields, which were under pressure. they had given us concerns about the broader economy, global economic recovery as well. this year you were watching u.s. pce inflation numbers were more indications on whether fed might go, but take a look at how oil is opening in the asian session. if we saw any impact coming from the confrontation that we saw in russia with the wagner militia group, we could see oil prices. we are seeing the upside of .7 of 1% for brent and wti prices, this coming at a time when we had seen the biggest weekly decline in oil prices since early may, given of course concerns about the broader economic stability, given hawkish comments coming from central banks last week. we are seeing that when it comes to gold futures, any time we have any geopolitical tensions we do see the bid up by gold, but any rally we might see here,

analyst saying it will be short-lived. we know that the wegner group has agreed to go into exile, so the long-term application pretty uncertain. haidi: so much even with the sudden diffusing of the threat to vladimir putin's will, and russian officials have met with allies including in china and north korea i day after the mercenary group halted the advance toward moscow. that sudden turnaround being the biggest threat to president putin's grip on power for now, but let's you and sullivan who joins a set of -- bring you greg sullivan who joins us. we see calm and no great deal of communication from either side at this point. >> that is exactly where we stand. it was a dizzying weekend where

the events were at time it will during, things developing quite quickly and all of the sudden we have a sudden calm it evolved. after the deal was announced and confirmed by the kremlin, we have seen a mostly solid gremlin since then. we have not seen president vladimir putin publicly since he gave his saturday tv address in which he called the group's actions treasonous. he is often boisterous in public, and he has been largely out of public view since then. even the unsettledness from the events of the weekend, what does it mean? what are the implications, and that seems to be with the focus is now. shery: what are we seeing in terms of global reaction so far? >> these events are on the minds

of most world leaders with several locations reaching beyond russia. we heard from secretary of state antony blinken. he said that this really shows -- input and's regime. -- a lot what does this mean for vladimir putin, events on the battlefield in ukraine, and like we mentioned earlier we also know that russia has kept contact with china, the chinese say they support their actions for stability, and the deputy foreign minister was in beijing meeting with his counterparts today or yesterday on sunday. that communication is still there. the chinese support is unsurprising given where that relationship is headed, but this

is grabbing the attention of world leaders. haidi: definitely two aspects we will continue to watch, the implications for your brain and the war effort and information -- implications for that response reaffirming that friendship with no limits we have talked about in the past, but i do wonder if calm has been restored for now, what does this mean for the future of the wagoner -- wagner group? >> as part of the deal prighozin has accepted exile and belarus. it was the ally of vladimir putin that negotiated a deal. we know the kremlin said those that did not participate in the mutiny sign contracts with the ministry of defense, but that is one of the questions, what happens to these other soldiers,

but also what happens on the battlefield of ukraine? so many of these soldiers are suddenly pulled out of the battlefield? this is what we expect to learn in the next coming days, and as things become clear in the wake of these events that will leave the variables to watch. shery: let's see how all of these latest geopolitical developments not to mention it macro economic news is setting us up for the market opens across asia. annabelle, what are you seeing? haslinda: taking a look at how investors are taking these events in russia over the weekend, and so far it does appear they are taking it in their stride, because when you take a look at some of the reactions that we are seeing or lack of reaction really, the euro would be one currency we could expect to drop significantly if this really does bring a significant risk event for europe as a whole, but

it is steady and the early moments of trade. they again, we track to that as a safe haven in currencies, but that currency this morning looking fairly steady against the u.s. dollar. we are still getting close to the 144 level, which does tells us intervention could be a key focus. commodity currencies and focus, the aussie dollar, the kiwi, so it is steady and not a lot of reaction so far in the early moments of trade. let's take a look at what is happening in equities this morning as well, right late we are guiding for a weaker open. we are a couple of hours out from the opens in japan and korea. goldman sachs among those saying we could start to see a recovery in equities in the second half. shery: goldman sachs said to start cutting manager director roles seeking to reduce its headcount is bacterial slump.

columbia tells us why interest in global market currency debt is rising. that is next. this is bloomberg. ♪

shery: political leaders are working through the geopolitical impact of the mutiny and subsequent back down by the wagner mercenary group in russia, but as mark champion tells us, officials and kyiv believe the weekend opposer's will only benefit ukraine. >> is people watched events unfold there was what was described as a sense of glee. the armed insurrection of the mercenary leader in russia has been greeted here is a sign of weakness that will ultimately

undermine the russian war effort and benefit ukraine. from kyiv's point of view that could not come at a better time, with troops and a counteroffensive that many see as the opportunity to defeat the evasions of russia's president vladimir putin that began last year. an aide to president zelenskyy told us in an interview that officials are not going to jump into any kind of action until they see how things on hold in russia. even so, officials are describing the turmoil and russia as proof that the system putin built over the last 20 years or so is now in a state of disintegration. putin might now feel that he has to consolidate his power by doubling down on the war and implement a nationwide globalization. after 60 mean -- 16 months of heavy losses he believes no russian will be able to sustain an expanded war effort, but that is an optimistic view.

almost all of the confusion, if he is right, that this was an important moment for ukraine. haidi: our next guest says anything that shortens the odds of a regime shift at a restaurant where the outcome of the conflict in ukraine can rapidly feed into oil prices, but currently so many unknowns when it comes to weight significant shift in global risk appetite. our global rates strategist joins us now. great to have you with us. when the weekend is for investors, you have the background and personal link to growing up in russia as well. what do you make of the developments in what the takeaway should be for investors in the space? >> from an investment perspective, it is way too early to tell. the good news especially as an emerging market investor is

russian sectors are segregated from the financial system. they have been for well over a year due to sanctions, and so the spillover effects of this weekend's events will be meaningful in the short term. haidi: what about the spillover effects when you take a look at the response from beijing and how that potentially impacts some of the other related emerging-market assets? obviously china being such an anchor for the broader class. >> this is a super important event from a geopolitical perspective. it underscores the regime in russia, how important the resolution of the conflict in ukraine will be not just in that region but for the emerging-market writ large, but at this stage, i do not see any sort of economic intervention from china. obviously from a geopolitical perspective they are active in that conflict, but from an

economic perspective it is quite limited, and as investors we are approaching this largely through the lens of commodity markets. that is a place where russia has a significant footprint, and unless we see a dislocation to the supply of energy that russia has two oil markets, at this point i think most investors will sit back and watch. shery: how related and how linked is china's performance in financial assets with the rest of the emerging markets, because it seems given the economic recovery there, not being as strong as many had expected, correlation seems to have weakened with broader yen. >> that has been one of the surprises this year. a lot of investors look at china and the yield in the stimulus they put in the economy last year as something that would be significant tailwinds looking at assets, and it turns out assets

have done well despite what has happened in china, so the china story has been quite segregated. i think to some extent this fit into weakness on commodity prices. i would say the china recovery story is stronger, you are definitely seeing higher oil prices, lower base metal prices globally, but so far ems's has held up really well despite the disconnect with the chinese story. shery: how well is em local debt performing right now given the dynamics that you talk about, not to mention the global bond rally that we saw last week given this on for safe havens? >> it has been really an outstanding story for three reasons. the inflation story is starting to roll over, and because em central banks hydrates

aggressively there were left with a very attractive real rate story this year. combine that with stability if not out right weakness in the dollar and risk appetite boosted by the fact that investments sees hiking cycle is coming to a, potentially to an end. those factors combined for a good backdrop for em's that we have not seen in years. shery: we saw for the first time the dollar saw a weekly gain after a month of declines. where does the trajectory of the greenback affect the goal of yours? >> the dollar in my mind goes sideways, unless we see a significant surprise to u.s. inflation to the upside, which will reinvigorate bets on the fed continuing hiking. the dollar tends to be a safe haven asset that then gets a bit

up in that sort of environment, but right now we are in the middle. we are looking at a fed that is quite comfortable pausing of not ending the hiking cycle, and recession by all metrics looks at least not on the immediate horizon, so that is an attractive window for em assets. shery: ed al-hussainy there with the latest on the markets. we continue to watch anything related to russia after the armed uprising there. taking a look at russian futures pointing downwards. we have heard from russia that they will be opening the stock markets as expected as they tried to return to some sense of normalcy after the uprising, although that was very short-lived given that the leader agreed to go into exile, so the impact is unclear on risk assets, but you can see their russian futures under a little

bit of pressure. our next guest says events that have transpired demonstrate at how weak the putin regime is. gestalt is a resident senior fellow. great to have you with us. it was a really wild 24 hours, very short-lived. what does this mean for the future of vladimir putin? how does he overcome this? >> first of all, this is the most significant challenge to the rule of vladimir putin since he was given power in 2000 by his former boss president yelts in. yeltsin intended for putin to stay in office only two terms through 2008, and here we are in

2023, and old putin is still there. secondly, the last time russia had an open challenge with a military component was to yeltsin himself. in 1993, that was 30 years ago. good lord, that is a long time in russian history, and the pitiful speech putin gave on the early morning of saturday in fact compared putin with nicholas second, the most inept czar the got russia defeated by japan and in another time leading to two revolutions and also losing their kids in our lives, so that was a bizarre

speech by boudin. shery: it is not just our nicholas ii. we have seen these military misadventures can be to them being ousted, so how much will this weekend -- weaken's putin's position? >> prighozin was a spokesperson for web directions call criminal authority. she got tens of thousands of hardened criminals not just released from the camps but armed and trained. if you take a murderer and make him a soldier, that is a gambling combination, these people were screaming to moscow, but if you have only 25,000 people like prighozin said he had and probably less, and they are spread over 1000 kilometers

between rostov on don all the way to moscow, he did not have a strong fan. his forces could have been slaughtered. nobody in russia came out very openly in support of prighozin. on the official level, a lot of grassroots were chanting in the streets wagner in support of prighozin's private military company. it tells me something. a lot of russian people support a harder line against ukraine, they believe the putin regime is corrupt, but at the same time i do not see in this between them a lot of peaceful sentiment by the russian people.

haidi: how strong is the alliance with beijing in light of some of the cracks you continue to see, given how you gauge public support for putin? >> as far as we saw, there were drip, drip, drip of some vehicles coming from try not russia is using the security forces. we did not see one point five years into the war any kind of massive military supplies. that is a question for real professionals, and many computer chips go into the russian drones, into other russian systems from china. are they washed through other countries like north korea or armenia, it may be tricky, it may be uae, but russia is still trading, and some of the great zone technologies may be coming from china, but china did not

jump with two feet in military support of vladimir putin, and now after this coup, this is scary stuff for xi jinping. he understands he probably bet on the wrong horse it russia and that putin will not win the war in europe as xi jinping and potent -- putin may be planned and then china would make a move against taiwan. that is not happening so far. haidi: it leaves putin in a precarious situation in terms of the questionable strength of the ski alliance, the support at home and what happened over the last 24 hours. does this heighten the policy risk of an outsized move from boudin -- putin? is the volatility of his leadership i enough? >> this is a very key point here.

as a friend of mine pretty high on the u.s. government told me today, he thinks that putin's regime is stable but brittle, meaning for now he survived this challenge from this private security company, private military company. his own chef turned on him with a massive military force, but the question i would be asking if i were putin's it was the next guy that will make a move against me? putin is reportedly sick, he is getting older, and other people want that power. where is the military, prigozhin singled out the defense minister. will he appoint someone more

aggressive, it may be more competent in the war? putin minister get over 100,000 russian soldiers slaughtered, lose the markets in europe, got $300 billion in a rush of the reserves frozen. haidi: really appreciate your time and those insights. more to come. this is bloomberg. ♪

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haidi: the wagner group leader has gone quiet after calling often uprising depose the biggest challenge of vladimir putin's rule. prighozin became a fierce

critic of the russian military as his forces suffered losses. we have more on the allied turn threat. >> who is prigozhin. he is a petty criminal in his early life and was in jail for a decade. he became involved in several businesses, including catering. through this he became known as putin's chef, personally serving food to the men. the two appeared to share a relationship. he admitted to being the head of a founder and head of wagner after years of denials and even using european courts use to those who suggested he led the group. the mercenary unit at close links to the russian military and intelligence community. wagner set up earlier in 2014, was utilized in the capture of

eastern ukraine. it extended the kremlin's influence overseas while allowing moscow the ability to deny any involvement in any of the group's operations. wagner has been identified in governments hitting conflicts and stepping out dissent in syria, libya, molly, and sudan. fighters have been involved in some of the fiercest fighting in ukraine, notably in the capture of bahkmut in the east. hit by heavy casualties prig ozhin grew increasingly vocal. he directly blamed a defense minister for a lack of ammunition and weaponry. prigozhin later claimed he ordered an airstrike on wagner troops infertility it -- retaliated and what he called a

march to justice from moscow. vladimir putin so this is treason. >> all those who deliberately embarked on the trail, who prepared an armed rebellion. >> while he said he was loyal to boudin -- putin -- >> as for betraying the motherland, the president was deeply mistaken. we are patriots of our homeland. shery: take a look at how assets are trading at the moment especially with oil and gold prices. we could see that upside given the uncertainty of geopolitics around russia. we are seeing brent crude above $74 a barrel, beginning about 1.4% while gold futures are up as well. last week we had seen strength in gold prices, given the concern about the broader economy, we are looking at u.s.

futures unchanged, the japanese yen not doing much. we have seen a bit of strength of strength on the japanese yen earlier, but that is being given up right now and holding at the 143 level, close to 144. we are talking about the lowest level since november. our next guest says unless i knew crisis at peers, the fed will need to reduce system liquidity likely causing downward pressure on the market. a senior portfolio manager joins us now from boston. great to have you back. we have seen unexpected additions of liquidity, so what is the path going forward for markets if this is withdrawn? >> the fed is cup between lower interest rates because inflation is not doing what they want to, and on the other hand the fed is faced with then an enormous deficit. we need to finance hundreds of billions of treasury bills between now and the end of the fiscal year in september, so you

can see that would push up short rates more than the fed wanted, it might cause the economy to slow down. we will have to see, because i think we are not quite sure how this financing will go, so it says to me treasury rates especially in the short end are likely to be higher than you might think. the question is who will absorb them? previous see the last couple of years we did not need to worry, because the fed was calling the deficit. they were buying securities the treasury issued, so we did not have a problem like absorption, and now through one ticket of tightening that we have come to the end of that so they're looking for foreign investors are u.s. domestic investors to absorb the supply. shery: we have seen over the weekend this unexpected geopolitical event around russia

. could this be the next crisis on the geopolitical side of things when it comes to pressure on the markets? you are saying we should be on the lookout for whatever might cause more instability in financial markets? >> yes, and actually if what is happening in russia caused disruption in the financial markets, you might see the fed once again provide liquidity. they did that in march when it looks like some of the banks were failing. during the debt ceiling negotiations about a month ago, the fed provided additional liquidity proactively, so you could see the fed stepping in saying we need to provide liquidity because of these outside circumstances we have prohibited. we may see the fed provide liquidity to the marketplace. haidi: how vulnerable are assets

in the low market to these broader conditions? >> when you look at the loan market, banks have been raising their loan standards, so i think banks as far as loans are in pretty good shape, but in the securities market where we see loan to the various portfolios, we may see some problems there, and actually in a most recent months the default rate for loans was actually a little bit higher. loans headed default rate of 3.4%. many people think loans are safer than high-yield bonds, but what we have seen over the last couple of years is many companies were able to finance at better rates, lower rates in the low market. i think the high-yield market is in pretty good shape as far as default. i think we may see more in the

loan market rather unexpectedly. haidi: what are your feelings toward the soft landing/hard landing? something that feels like a recession even if we have these structural outliers like what the labor market is doing, what consumer spending is doing and what housing is doing? >> i think the fed has been quite surprised at how little effect of huge rise that we have had, five percentage points in a year has had a very little negative effect on the economy and unemployment. employment is to reasonably strong, and corporate profits were better than expected we are not seeing effect. there are two reasons. one is during covid we had massive definite -- deficit

financing to ease the burden of people. they might have some of that in savings to push and if we have more unemployment, and corporations have spent the last decade taking advantage of very low rates to lock up long-term financing. i would not say impervious, but are really affected very much by short rates going up, because they locked-in on maturities that have paid off bank loans and taken on long-term debt, so they are in good shape, and consumers have not gone in the way of spending. they have a good cash balance, so when you look at it you have these rates, and yet businesses and consumers are still looking pretty good. i expect that to continue. there was a lot of excess money in the system, and we are looking at a deficit of $1.7 trillion, so when you look at the fed trying to raise rates to slow down the economy, while on the other hand we have a deficit

of 1.7 billion, they may well support economic activity, and the fed may be surprised that they have had very little effect as far as were is raising the unemployment rate, selling the business, because there is still too much money floating around in the system. haidi: always great to have you with us, margie patel. let's stick with the markets and take a look at china, because traders will be back on monday after the holiday weekend. annabelle joins us now. another great catch up or catch down when it comes to mainland stocks. annabelle: it would be a catch down if you take what we saw in the proxies or other mainland or chinese assets over the last few days, because taking a look at the moves we saw in the golden dragon index in china, h shares index, both big slumps and those

in the past few days. what is really driving that when you put it into perspective? it really was that recalibration, because a lot of the optimism we had coming into june was driven by this expectation china was going to start to roll out some stimulus to prop up the economy there, but so far we have not seen those measures or announcements just yet, and you can add to that as well this expectation that anything that does come through is likely to be very targeted, so we are not expecting wholesale stimulus either. that has led to downward pressure on chinese stocks, mainland equities catching up today. we had a public holiday followed by the weekend, so that is the state of play. bnp paribas saying they are facing an expectation mismatch, but they are looking at positioning that is light, ululations that are attractive but also undemanding.

sentiment still very bearish. shery: we have goldman sachs being a little more positive on the outlook for china stocks. what are they saying? annabelle: they are saying essentially equities could start to recover in the second half, but it is interesting when you take a look at this chart, which considers more technical factors at play, and that is the strong resistance we see from the 200 moving day average, because we are approaching that once again. there is one point that the csi 300 managed to rise above its 200 day moving average line and stay above it for us. you look at the technicals, it suggests there is still quite a ways to go before chinese stocks can really start to recover on a sustained basis upward, but goldman sachs, they are saying in the second half we are going to start to see a tactical recovery. they are more focused on offshore equities in particular, but the reason they are saying that is they do believe we will

see stimulus coming through. they are also expecting the earnings outlook do start to improve as well, and we have been tracking geopolitical tensions that have been easing somewhat at least between washington and beijing. haidi: the new zoom and beginning a six-day visit to china is seeking to diversify the two economy's trade relationship. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> china could do more to make itself understood, but on the other's should also work hard to understand china, you know? ever since china opens up, the chinese people have tried very hard to understand the outside world. the same kind of response could also be needed. haidi: our guest speaking to bloomberg at the summit for new financing impact in paris. the new zealand per minister is leaving a trade delegation to china and will meet with president xi jinping. new zealand will need to diversify more or more leaning into the relationship? >> new zealand like many other

major economies is seeking to develop other trading relationships, but it's relationship with china not changing anytime soon because of the sheer size of it. out of necessity, new zealand has taken a much more diplomatic line toward china than other countries like australia. even before this trip chris hipkins was asked what do you think about president biden calling xi jinping a dictator, he said i would not use those words. even pointed out he has not met the chinese leader. previously new zealand has criticized china's human rights violations. new zealand has been walking a much more cautious diplomatic line. there will be a very heavy trade focus for the start after the economic forum, and i wednesday chris hipkins will meet the

beijing leadership. shery: what could be some of the big wui -- big wins? >> really seeking to diversify what new zealand sells to china. china take 60% of four products, 40% of meet exports and a large amount of debris as well, so on this trip we have a developer coming over to seek approval for video games. representatives for fitness are trying to push a line, and tourism. a number of airport and airline executives going because new zealand used to receive well over 400,000 chinese torahs per year. that dropped off 20 during the pandemic and has been recovering very slowly. long way to go to get that back to pandemic levels and an effort to diversify around a few core products. haidi: paul allen, taking a look at the stories making headlines

in australia. pwc australia is named kevin burroughs as its new ceo. online platforms spreading misinformation could face millions of dollars in penalties under new proposed legislation, and a report in an australian newspaper says taiwan's foreign minister has urged the post to -- shery: here are some of the other headlines. greece's former prime minister has scored a landslide victory in a general election, country's second vote in just a couple of months. it gives the new democracy party a comfortable majority and the ability to form a single party government. mitsotakis has ways to build on one of the fastest economic recoveries that has greek debt close to a return to investment grade.

turkey's central bank's moved to signify rules in a bid to boost lira savings. the ratio has immediately been lowered from 10% to 5%. thanks will get a discounted ratio if the share of lira deposits rises to 70%. changes come as the lira continues to slump in june. pakistan is making changes to its budget to appease the imf's concerns on taxes. the finance ministry says the government is planning new levies that will raise revenue by $750 million. pakistan is seeking an imf bailout and is dealing with a record inflation and reserves that have strong to about one month of imports. south korea is were considering slightly lowering its economic growth forecast for this year. a news agency says finance ministry officials may cut their projections to as low as 1.4%

from 1.6% reflecting the sluggish performance of the chip industry. asia's fourth-largest economy appointed a technical recession after expending 0.3% in the first quarter. china's trouble spending during the festival holiday fell short of pre-covered levels. domestic tourism revenue was $5.2 billion, which was 95% the amount region 2019. meanwhile 106 million domestic trips were made surpassing the same period in 2019 by almost 13%. get a roundup of all of the stories you need to know to get her the going in today's edition of daybreak. terminal subscribers go to dayb. customize your settings so you only get the news on the industries and assets that you care about. this is bloomberg. ♪

shery: goldman sachs is said to have started cutting managing director across the globe, reducing headcount as deal slump. vonnie quinn joins us with the latest. how big of a reduction of her talking about? vonnie: it looks to be 125 managing director positions, so in senior positions in previous

rounds and some of the investment bank after goldman sachs already cut some and asia, and as j.p. morgan cuts 40 positions for the u.s., having already cut some investment banking jobs in asia, so you can see a familiar pattern here. it is also treacherous out there, because it this is the third round of layoffs for goldman within a year. goldman it has so far announced in 2023 3325 job cuts. city is cutting one -- some of its staff. it is the worst year for banking jobs, which is a long time ago. we saw it intact, you can tell the reasons why. the fed has been raising rates, which is joe the environment for deals, and it is not just coming back? in the second quarter we have j.p. morgan projecting another 15% drop in investment banking revenue, and that is not good for shareholders, banks or the banks themselves. haidi: it feels like yesterday

we were seeing the fight for talent, banks are incentivizing each other to hold onto staff. why are they so content to get rid of staff if there was an anticipation of a return to dealmaking? vonnie: it is unlike banks especially in this environment where the rate is low to get rid of top talent, but the bottom line is the most important thing, and it looks like this return to dealmaking, it does return to the fever we might have seen during the pandemic is being pushed out. it might be into next year before we see deals being done, ipo's being announced, mergers and acquisitions and capital raises. companies are less content to give at that deal or capital deal than they were just a few months ago before the fed started raising rates. spring is traditionally recruitment season as well. they are thinking we can cut now and cut in september according to some reports. and hire in spring.

some of the more boutique investment banks are taking advantage of this push. weinberg cutting overall headcount by 7% but specifically saying they are hiring top talent with another company saying it is taking advantage of this particular environment in order to not poach but pinch some of the top talent up the street. haidi: vonnie quinn with the latest on one of our top stories. let's take a look at tech stories making headlines right now. a group of lenders are providing as much as $2 billion to the semi conductor firm company. wolfspeed will limit the number the parties that will have access to its intellectual property. amazon and google are committed to ramping up their investments in india following a meeting between u.s. president joe biden and into per minister narendra

modi and top executives at the white house. amazon will spend additional winter $15 billion in india -- $115 billion in india. let's take a look at markets, broader equity futures looking soft. we are seeing downside, our since march 29 when it comes to aussie futures. s&p futures holding up .2 of 1% higher. brent crude precariously close to that level. on the watch when it comes to geopolitical developments. ♪

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shery: you're watching daybreak: asia coming to live from new york, sydney and hong kong. >> we are kind onto asia's maj