when you show generosity of spirit to someone. and you want people to be saved and to have a better life, then you don't stop. we have been able to reach over 100 million people impacted and affected, and at risk of hiv. the rocket fund takes all of the work that we're doing, all over the world, and looks at the most effective ways, to get resources to them, to get services to them. the idea that we have saved five million people's lives, it's overwhelming. it's everything. >> good morning, this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." ukraine says wagner mercenaries

remain in the country after their leader agrees to exile following an important mutiny against vladimir putin. contained moves in oil, wheat, stocks and currencies after the weekend events in russia. les china says it supports russia's actions to maintain national stability as the nations diplomats meet. spending slows. we will check in on the markets. there is relative resilience on the back of the shock out of russia over the weekend, the aborted mutiny. oil has edged lawyer -- lower but europe and the u.s. futures pointing slightly higher. over the dragon boat festival, softer than pre-pandemic levels. house sales week again, economic data and consumer impulse out of

china looking week. maybe there is more downside for the yuan and the divergence in terms of policy operators and lessee response from the pboc versus the fed and other major central banks. yuan the lowest level in seven months despite the fix. the asian session just down about 1/10 of 1%. mainland chinese markets back after the holiday. brent, three tens of all percent after the news from russia over the weekend, you also saw a 4% drop brent last week. today, getting 3/10 of a percent. we will dive into that story in the second half of the show and get analysis. spot gold still below 2000. let's see how futures are shaping up with the context that

u.s. markets had the worst week since march last week. european stocks off about 2%. is this part of a sustained downturn? there is the yield story, 4.72 at the front end. european yields, yield inversion the most pronounced in decades as money moved in the long and on the bets that there is increasing risk of recession. a lackluster week for the single currency, for the year last week. inflation data out of the euro zone this week and any commentary from the ecb officials meeting in portugal. let's get commentary from around the world. we are looking a closer look at the fallout from the short-lived mutiny in russia.

valerie will break down the market reaction. the impact of the wagner mercenary group mutiny and subsequent backing down being assessed around the world. the leader has agreed to go into exile, but an advisor says there's no indications the group is retreating from conflict areas. maria, what an extraordinary weekend of unrest in russia, keeping us all gripped. is the crisis over for vladimir putin? maria: yes, especially that friday to saturday, what a 24 hours, extraordinary. to answer your question, it is very difficult because the kremlin and vladimir putin have gone radio silent. the last we saw from the russian president was a saturday morning when he addressed the russian people. he talked about treason and even mentioned 1917, which we know is

a critical date in russian history. he also said there would be fatal and tragic consequences to this episode, which he described as treason to the motherland. the reality is, on the monday morning, what we know is wagner for the time being has not been dismantled. prigozhin is still allegedly alive and on his way to belarus. there are a lot of questions in terms of what is behind this deal allegedly cut by the head of belarus, who mediated between vladimir putin and prigozhin. he supposed to go to belarus, details of the deal are murky. one of the european officials i spoke to over the weekend told me it does appear the situation internally in russia is contained. it is hard to tell if it is the end of it. mike: on that point, you've been reaching out to sources the last

couple of days, what has the international -- what has been the international reaction? maria: for us it is good news, but doesn't have an impact on the counter offensive, i think we will get more information. it goes back to the idea that russia is not invincible. we know there was a flurry of diplomacy, president biden spoke to president zelenskyy yes. -- yesterday. we also had antony blinken doing the media rounds in the united states, pointing to the idea that the insurrection has shown crack's in the system for vladimir putin. that's take a look. >> this raises profound questions. it shows real crack spirit we can't speculate or know exactly what that will -- where that will go. we know putin has more to answer for in the weeks and months ahead. maria: that's the u.s. secretary of state, antony blinken. when it comes to the europeans,

we know again, a lot of diplomacy going on over the weekend, especially in countries with close geographical proximity to russia. it is important to note the polish president himself did say in their view, it seems the situation internally and russia has been contained. the one message repeated this weekend by european officials is they stand with ukraine and that support is unwavering. tom: ok, maria, on the ground in brussels with the response to the historic events in russia. let's get more. joining us is mark champion in kyiv. one has the reaction been in ukraine to what has unfolded in wagner's armed rebellion, at least it was?

mark: essentially is seen as good news. it's a pretty binary equation as far as people here are concerned. anything that is bad for putin or appears to weaken him must be good for ukraine. whether that will pan out is a different question. but universally that's how it was seen here. the other thing to say about it is in the meantime they are super cautious about saying anything about how this might impact the battlefield. they hope in the long term, medium to long-term, in a week or two, it could help. if there's any kind of destabilization, a fracture, they hope it will produce

something for ukraine. on the other hand, they are very cautious and saying we are going to do anything, even if they pull back in one area, we will be cautious in case it is a ruse. tom: you've spent a lot of time in ukraine and you follow this at a granular level. there were some speculation over the weekend that maybe the front in ukraine would collapse and that clearly hasn't happened yet. what is your assessment of where this leaves the war in ukraine? mark: for now, exactly where it was. both sides are pushing. the russians continued even on the 24th when all of this was going on, to send missiles across to cities in ukraine. really nothing changed. if you think it through, essentially the same soldiers are sitting in the same positions on the front lines. they don't really know a great

deal about what is going on behind them. essentially they have continued and even prigozhin, he surrounded and took control of a city where the operations of the ukraine invasion were based. he said he didn't plan to disrupt any of the operation in ukraine. that seems to be the situation for now. tom: mark champion in kyiv with the latest, thank you. let's get to the market reaction to those events in russia. like telekom. futures in the u.s. and europe higher. valerie, what have the movements been? and what else should we be watching? valerie: totally unfazed at the

opening this morning, surprising. all eyes on how euro opened in the asia session late last night. basically unchanged. you would think if there was risk of a civil war in russia, euro would down multiple percents, but so far, very much calm in the fx markets. then we go to commodities. let's check on gold and oil. roughly unchanged. when you think about oil dropped 4% last week. you to think this was just a little bit of undoing last week's move. a surprisingly -- surprisingly muted when it comes to commodities. you check in on gold, higher but just slightly. you go back to september 11, gold was higher by nearly 8% but very sanguine this morning. risk sentiment, let's check on s&p futures. a positive start to the session,

up 2/10 of 1%. the u.s. 10 year yield, there is a bid into treasuries but not enough to claim it is a risk off move. remember, we get half your end later this week, and you have to remember the winning trades have been risk on, long equities, short fixed income. perhaps not surprising if we do see some pullback on risk sentiment. but a lot of that you can put down to positioning rather than a move based on this weekend events in russia. tom: positioning rather than geopolitics. valerie on the market reaction or lack thereof. later this morning at 9:00 a.m. u.k. time, a german expectation survey for june, really important. always important. our coverage from the ecb form begins tomorrow.

we will share any commentary we get. we will have interview news -- interviews, and christine lagarde welcome speech at 9:00 a.m. u.k. time. wednesday, andrew bailey, jay powell and christine lagarde will be speaking. we will also get cpa that is expected to show inflation showing. thursday, watching for german and spanish cpi and friday, eurozone cpi. inflation picture out of the euro zone after the softer than expected emi data. we will get fed chair jay powell's preferred inflation gauge from a, is it headed in the right direction? next, we will dig into the markets with our guest from emirates nbd. is there a way to position

around the geopolitics of russia and is profit turning into a sustained downturn? this is bloomberg. ♪

>> the fed has been trying to talk this market down. >> i think the fed has to sleep with one eye open. >> the fed is going to have to continue to raise rates or stay higher for longer. >> to pause and a time when you are significantly raising forecast because of inflation and the level of rates we have to get to deal with the problem, powell has a tough job. >> it is a mistake to ask central banks to solve inflation all by themselves. tom: our guests on where the

feds peak rate could possibly be heading. let's bring in anita group to -- gupta from emirates nbd. before we get to the fed and central-bank action, let's get to russia and the geopolitical shock of the weekend. are you surprised? what is your assessment of the market reaction? anita: good morning. what's happened with russia is there is hope in the market that the russia and ukraine situation gets resolved. there are two big geopolitical events on the market radar, one is china and u.s. relations, which seems to be improving, and the second is ukraine, any relief would be fantastic for markets. it is a big risk taken away and

it also means there is a resumption in europe of normalcy , away from higher inflation. inflation is being influenced by russia/ukraine. tom: so if we get a resolution, there is clearly upside for equity markets. is it your assessment we are getting closer to that point? is it too soon to start positioning for that outcome or is there another strategy, equity or stock strategy to put to play around the risks and turbulence we've seen in russia? anita: i think it's way too early to start positioning for that right now. at the moment, we are overweight u.s. and underweight european market positioning. that will not change because of one piece of news out of russia.

manufacturing pmi's, contraction, we are looking at economic numbers out of europe. they are definitely worse than japan and u.s., that's why we are underweight europe right now. tom: you are positioned for a recession. the pmi data was a disappointment for many market participants last week. you have already position for that eventuality? anita: we are already position for that at this point and we will not be able to have a -- last week and i don't think we will change that position. we are already -- overweight emerging markets. it's not a very big call and we always highlight that we still have allocation to equities.

tom: how do you maintain dem of versus dm bias -- em versus dm bias. there was a lack of response in terms of fiscal policy, china is not playing its role in em. anita: absolutely right. we keep evaluating em. we do not have an overweight china call. we've been slowly adding more to india. we are definitely evaluating china. there has been continued hope the low valuation and restrictions being removed but we are not saying that yet buy into the numbers we are seeing. tom: on japan, it's been a bit of a favorite year-to-date, gains of about 40%. is the window closing on getting

exposure to the upside for japanese equities? anita: i wouldn't yet exit japan. i would maintain japan for japan markets are poised for return on equity to go up, more capital expenditure from japanese companies. the weakened yen and exports. i would state invested in japanese equities even for the medium term. short-term, medium-term. it's also a great way to play ai and technology away from the u.s.. tom: talking of the u.s., worst week for stocks since march last week. what is fair value for the s&p at this point? anita: error -- our fair volume last year was 4000 but we are

raising to summing like 4300. q2 is expected to see the earnings drop and also that boost in technology stock performance and ai sentiment. on the ai front, you've got to differentiate between quality and what will do well. it's not just that every single company that has ai attached to its business or name will do well. the quality names are focused at this point. on the u.s. front, just one weeks of stocks falling, you already have markets up 5% in june in spite of last week. tom: expect range bound u.s. markets, new opposition for recession in europe, and still a

preference for em vs dm. thank you for joining us this morning from emirates nbd. coming up, greeks go to the polls again. the former premier scores a victory. more on that next. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> to get everyone to the table, to than negotiate plus and minus, what zambia expected, what creditor a, b, c expected, was the most difficult thing. now it is simple. tom: that was zambia's

president, that set the most of the copart oftiations to restructure the country's debt has been completed. in greece, a landslide victory in the country's second vote in over a month. the former prime minister, serving prime minister, a majority big enough to form a single party government. markets previously rally behind him as he made the economy central to his campaign. we will keep an eye on what happens when greek markets open later. bloomberg has learned goldman sachs has started cutting managing directors around the globe as the firm reduces headcounts amid a deal slump. about 120 five managing directors including some in investment banking, will lose jobs as part of a deep cost-saving drive that has seen at least three rounds of job cuts in less than a year. we also understand j.p. morgan is cutting about 40 investment bankers in north america.

a global group of lenders is providing as much as $2 billion to will speed to support -- wolfspeed to support growth in the u.s. coming up, commodities traders, and the implications of the unrest in russia. we will get the analysis from the head of commodities at saxo bank. spot gold, not a huge move given the geopolitical -- geopolitics over the weekend. there is expectation maybe this is the area to focus, soft commodities and concerns around higher food prices, generally given the russia is expected to once again being the largest

producer of wheat maybe that's where the focus needs to bp it brent at $74 a barrel. you saw brent down about 4% last week. over the last 12 months, prices are off about 30%. there is the game today for oil, 3/10 of a percent. we will get the calls on whether to position for higher oil. to position for higher oil. and this is ready to go online. any questions? -yeah, i got one. how about the best network imaginable? let's invent that. that's what we do here. quick survey. who wants the internet to work, pretty much everywhere. and it needs to smooth, like super, super, super, super smooth. hey, should you be drinking that? -it's decaf. because we're busy women. we don't have time for lag or buffering. who doesn't want internet that helps a.i. do your homework even faster. come again. -sorry, what was that? introducing the next generation 10g network only from xfinity. the future starts now.

tom: good morning, this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." these are the stories that set your agenda. ukraine says wagner mercenaries remain in the country after

their leader agrees to exile following an aborted mutiny against vladimir putin. there are few signs of market turmoil after the weekend events in russia. plus, china says it supports russia's actions to maintain national stability as the nations diplomats meet. consumer spending slows let's check in on markets but the geopolitical shock that came to the fore over the weekend in russia, but the market reaction relatively sanguine. futures in the u.s. and europe are pointing higher, adding to positions maybe after the profit-taking last week. we will see if that is maintained. the focus on soft commodities, gold and oil, given the events in russia, historic events. oil, gaining to tens of a percent. the context, prices dropping 4% last week.

there are continued questions about the demand impulse from china counteracting fears and concerns over geopolitics. we will break that down in more detail and have a forward-looking conversation about prospects for oil in a few minutes. the yuan falling to a seven-month low, closing on 7.22 , i divergent picture between the pboc and the fed consumer data after the dragon boat festival last week. not back to pre-pandemic levels, and added concern for policymakers. futures i mentioned. let's check asian markets. pretty heavy selling on mainland china after the holiday. again, a lackluster picture when it comes to the growth

trajectory for the world's second-largest economy. european futures, gains of a little more than 2/10 of a percent. there were losses last week. s&p higher by about 1/10 of a percent. u.s. markets had the worst weekly drop since march but building on modest gains. the two-year stateside, 4.72. it comes to central bank action, we will be listening to commentary from the ecb as officials meet. jay powell will speak at that event as well. tune in for that. euro-dollar, 1.09. it has been a dramatic weekend impact of the wagner group mutiny and subsequent backing down, it's being assessed globally. leader yevgeny prigozhin has agreed to going to exile.

meanwhile, there are no signs the group is retreating from conflict areas in the country. what an extraordinary week of unrest in russia. the questions about this so-called deal struck between prigozhin and putin, is the crisis over for putin? maria: the terms of that deal, that is the key. when it comes to the crisis, is it over, it seems the kremlin wants to portray this image of back to business as usual because we hopefully can bring you pictures from the russian news agency that shows the russian defense minister on what seems to be a helicopter this morning and he seems to be inspecting the work russian troops are doing in ukraine. this idea that the mod continues to do work on the battlefield,

it is important. a lot of the criticism from prigozhin was aimed at the russian mod and ministry of defense. there are two questions, one is what is in the deal cut, the president of belarus negotiating. another factor that for a lot of europeans will be key, the crux in the system. this idea that vladimir putin was invincible, that he had a tight grip on power, a lot of that is called into question. is it the end of it? that remains to be seen. tom: maria tadeo with the latest and implications for vladimir putin. thank you. maria has been working the phones all weekend getting the international response. the commodities market was the first place you turn to on a question of ruptures in russia,

particularly oil and soft commodities, given the expectation that russia will be home to the biggest export of wheat for the summer season. spot gold, just up 3/10 of a percent. wheat futures gaining a full 1%, just under 1%. brent up pretense of a percent but a selloff of a little over 4% last week. the reaction across commodity markets has been, given the significance of events, relatively muted. it's get market -- let's get market analysis with our guest. your response to the market reaction, is it a surprise what we are seeing in commodity markets? what are you watching for is the potential next catalyst? >> i think first of all, you can say this morning, thank god the events happened on the weekend.

the way things unfolded on saturday, it could have created an immense amount of volatility in the market simply because at one point we were looking at a regime change. we didn't get it. we are trading a little higher. summaries perhaps about supply, but this is a massive geopolitical chess game. i don't think anyone knows what the next move will be and that's why traders this morning acting a little on the side of caution after last week. also we were pretty close to decent support levels in gold and oil. it makes sense we see some balance in these levels. what happens in the coming days depends on what comes out of moscow, whether the power is maintained good -- maintained. we have a status quo in the markets.

tom: you touched on regime change, that's not something we would have talked about with seriousness when it comes to russia until friday. then you have the events over the weekend and now you can't dismiss it. what would the market reaction be to a still unlikely scenario, but a scenario that has to be in the mix at this point? ole: first of all it will create a lot of uncertainty and could create turmoil in the domestic markets in russia, thereby also threatening some of the supply chain. i would say that would lead to concerns about supplies. maybe in the longer term it could help settle down the relationships between east and west and north and south. we could see increased supplies of other commodities we've been struggling with the past year, especially gas. that's the second leg of such an event. the initial beat worries about

domestic turmoil and the negative impact on supplies. tom: is the most vulnerable part of the commodity complex soft commodities when it comes to what is happening in russia? ole: i think we will have to say that is the case. we've had a strong rally in wheat, still down on the year but we are rallying strongly because there are production issues elsewhere. we are seeing deteriorating outlook for the u.s., australia has downgraded the crop this year and china perhaps a bigger importer of wheat. we need robust supplies, especially from the black sea region, and that is a concern if something should develop further. the area where the whole thing began is a key area for exports and production.

it's probably the one we should keep the closest i on. and then gold, if we see a deterioration. you mentioned the chinese stock market is still a concern, demand for oil not picking up at the pace they were looking for. tom: brent down 35% the last 12 months, as you are aware. we were kind of woken up again to the recession risks in europe last week with the softer than expected pmi data. is the oil market front earning the recession? hasn't been ahead of the curve in terms of recession risks locally? ole: it has to at a certain point. we have to talk about speculators but also except that a lot of the traders in the oil market are not looking at supply and demand, they are looking at a hedge against the economic downturn and crude oil right now is the best proxy for that in the commodity space.

more china-centric these days bit there's been some selling in the oil market in anticipation of economic slowdown. the next quarter is make or break potentially for oil because we are looking for demand growth that opec and the iaea have been looking to materialize in the third quarter. if that doesn't come to fruition, we can see why saudi cut production earlier this month. tom: the make or break a quarter coming up. ole, appreciate your time and analysis on russia. coming up, beijing says it acts russian national stability. we will hear more on how the weekend events could affect china/russia relations. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> who is yevgeny prigozhin, the former caterer who went on to lead a powerful mercenary group who marched on moscow? he was a petty criminal in early life and was jailed for nearly a decade. he later became a hot dog seller and then involved in several businesses including catering. through this, he became known as putin's chef. he personally served food to the russian leader at dinners with dignitaries. the two seemed to have a close relationship. in late 2022, prigozhin admitted to being the founder of wagner, a russian military contractor, after years of denials. the mercenary unit had a close rank to the russian military and intelligence community. wagner set up eight years earlier in 2014, utilized in the capture and occupation of eastern ukraine. the group extended to the kremlin's influence overseas

while allowing the moscow the ability to deny involvement in any operations. wagner has been identified as stamping out dissent in central african republic, mali, libya and syria and suit on. they've been involved in some of the most serious fighting in ukraine. prigozhin turned to recruiting criminals from prism. -- from prison. prigozhin increasingly vocal about criticism of the russian military strategy and directly lamed the defense minister. he later claimed the defense minister ordered an attack on wagner group, and he then asked for a march for justice to moscow.

>> all those that deliberately embarked on betrayal, who prepared armed rebellion. >> while prigozhin called off the march and said he was loyal to putin -- >> the president was deeply mistaken, we are patriots of our homeland. we have fought and are fighting. tom: ok, more on the leader of the wagner group. china says it backs russia's actions to maintain national slick -- national stability as moscow looks for support from allies. joining us is bruce einhorn in hong kong. the importance we know, the beijing and moscow relationship. what has the reaction from china been? bruce: generally supportive. as you point out, these are countries that have been close a long time. china has tilted toward russia

in the war with ukraine, even before the full-scale invasion. vladimir putin went to beijing and met with xi jinping and they made the statement about the no limits partnership it not surprising the chinese foreign ministry has expressed support for russia over the events over the weekend. saying it was an internal affair and that kind of supports russia in maintaining national stability and achieving development and prosperity. the chinese foreign minister met with deputy foreign minister from russia over the weekend. another chinese diplomat also met with him and they issued a statement saying the two countries would defend common interests in the face of what they call complex and grim environments. also the chinese side noted growing mutual trust between the two countries.

in its coverage over the weekend, a chinese news agency pointed out people in moscow were calm, you could not tell much was going on. generally supportive but on the other hand, there are some little indications that maybe there are doubts. the official china daily today published and allowances -- an analysis quoting two different experts in beijing and the headline says there is an uneasy calm in russia. one of the experts pointed to the mutiny by the wagner group reveals problems have been rising since the start of the war. another said the conflict undoubtedly rings an alarm bell for russia. overall, supportive, support from china, but indications people are having a few doubts perhaps about how this is progressing for vladimir putin. tom: bruce einhorn on the ground in hong kong with the china

reaction. we have the mr. a foreign affairs press roofing in the coming hours and we will be looking forward to that. the uprising against president putin has pierced his aura of total political control. that is the focus of our big take story today. roz, there's a lot we don't know in terms of the details of the deal struck between putin and the head of the wagner group. what seems to be clear, listening and hearing and reading the experts focused on russia is it has indeed damaged putin's standing in russia and internationally. roz: vladimir putin is a survivor, he's been in power decades. he's faced external pressure, you name it. this has to be the most overt display publicly inside russia, disquiet with his leadership. he spent years in the lead up to

the invasion of ukraine, denuding the opposition, a lot of them in jail. state media controlling the message to the russian people. to see evidence of people moving toward russia and columns with tanks challenging the russian military establishment is really a message that putin doesn't have the level of control he'd like to convey to the russian people. his power is he is absolutely in control and for the first time we've seen fisher's -- fissures . he's going to run for reelection in 2024, do we see elites saying we need to put other names forward to replace him? tom: there are different factions of course in the powerbase around the kremlin. some would like to see a quick resolution to the conflict in ukraine, and then there are those more hawkish and take a stronger, more aggressive line. how did those factions play into that environment, particularly

around the lead up to 2024, where up until friday we would assume would be a clear-cut case for putin? roz: you've seen u.s. president joe biden essentially safe vladimir putin must go, he's called him a killer and many other leaders have called for regime change, do you want that to happen in a way that is inherently unstable for russia? does it create an environment where you get more hardliners come in? do you get true instability in russia? that can't be good for anybody, not just russia, ukraine and the rest of the world. you can see concern, if this will create turmoil down the track it, do you get a power struggle in russia and what are the knock on effects of that? tom: maybe a question of being careful what you wish for when it comes to what happens in russia. thank you very much indeed. that big take, and essential read this morning to get a better understanding of the implications of how the events

over the weekend, what position they leave vladimir putin and. next hour, we will speak to the belarusian opposition leader. we will get her view on the deal to take in yevgeny prigozhin into belarus. that interview at 7:40 am u.k. time. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: welcome back. the bank of england hikes its rate to 5% last week, more than expected, and further tightening expected as the u.k. looks to curb sticky inflation. lizzy burden joins me. we've been hearing members of the government being critical of the boe and the steps the central bank has been taking,

the inability to get a grip on inflation would be the accusation. also heard from the prime minister as well. lizzy: yes, now ap great at 6.25% by december, it is higher than previously. rishi sunak yesterday admitted people will face more pain from this. he said there is no alternative. really he prides himself on having identified this issue early and taking difficult decisions as he calls them, to deal with it. the question asked more and more vocally is whether there is more for the government to do actively to help the bank of england in its mission, given the lack of monetary transmission and that he has made it a top priority to halve inflation by the end of the year. they could raise income taxes, they could use wage price controls. none of those options are politically palatable. therefore, his party is trailing labour in the polls by 25

points currently. it looks like they would be annihilated in the general election but he is sticking to his pledges. inflation sticky, growth anemic and recession looking more likely. the public debt rising, health service waiting lists at a record high and boat crossings rising as well. many in his party very frustrated that he is sticking to these pledges. they are asking whether it is still expedient to do that, whether or not they are the top five priorities of the people. tom: he might want to also add the mortgage crisis, that fits with inflation. thank you. lizzy burden on the pressure on this government around inflation and the boe. coming up next hour, we will speak to the belarusian opposition leader, important conversation given the events that have unfolded and the

belarus decision to take in the leader of wagner. we will discuss what that means. that is 7:40 a.m. u.k. time. after a pause from the fed and a 50 basis point hike from the boe, top central bankers and policymakers sticking on the future of monetary policy and inflation. we will be live in portugal tomorrow and wednesday for the annual ecb forum on central banking tomorrow. we will speak to central bank governors. markets: europe is next. ♪

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anna: welcome to bloomberg markets europe. mark cudmore joins us from singapore to take us through the market action.