>> we are seeing clear signs of a demand slow down. >> we are slowing, there's no doubt about that, but the recession debate continues to go on. >> i have a surprisingly positive outlook. >> when you introduce this level of uncertainty, it's hard not to see option price levels as compelling. >> we see diversity tatian -- we see diversification that has gone up. >> this is bloomberg surveillance. tom: good morning, everyone. on radio and television, tuesday and a complete full quarter ending. we will go to maria tadeo in a moment on all going on in russia and ukraine and belarus. i've got to look at a wall of economic data to try to figure

out exactly where we are. where are we? lisa: we don't know where we are. we've gotta posted data including housing data. the key question is, are we on a downward shift or reverting to an upward trajectory particular with the housing market where we are seeing signs of a rebound? is there enough softness in a consistent manner across all sectors to give central bankers a sense of ease? that's not the tongue we are hearing. tom: jackson hole without the cowboys, francine lacqua coming up. we are going to start in a moment with maria tadeo, what are you watching? lisa: i'm watching to understand who is supporting vladimir putin and what the relationship withpergosian is. he will grant him amnesty but thewagner troops are being disbanded. it's not a complete chapter and

there are many questions that remain including where are the military leaders on the oligarchs and who was supporting vladimir putin? this is a top one of the big nuclear powers of the world. tom: we will get an update on that in a moment. let's get to the data. futures are up eight and dow futures are up 10. it shows a stability over the last 48 hours even with a lowland international relations. the 10 year yield is 3.73 and i have nothing to talk about here. oil is $68. brent crude is under $74 per barrel. the euro-dollar is $3.73. lisa: the euro strength is interesting bumping up against

$1.10 after the christine lagarde commas where she said they would hike again in july and their fight is not over even after disappointing data they got with respect to the pmi of the euro region. it's day two of the euro region meeting. people are forecasting the ecb to raise rates and that leads to slower growth. tom: when we say 1992 in america, that's not like 1992 in east germany and west germany and the reunification. i think there is a real inversion there. that has an historic field versus the usual analysis of america. lisa: we are also looking at eco-data in the united states with home price data coming in at 9:00 a.m. we have seen a massive rollover of some of the data into an

secular the s&p 500 data. does this give a sense we are seeing the heat come out of this market? tom: this chart is simple, housing inflation and a massive plunge. this is a 20 set -- a 20 city carl schiller index. the dexter met -- the detriment is old news it's two or three months old. i think it has enough import and enough trend to it where we can watch it. lisa: because it is the lagging data that goes into cpi which is factoring into the fed decision. we get some earnings today like walgreens and we will cover that and those shares have been beaten up so far. manchester united is also having their annual general meeting to talk about middle eastern money. this earnings season will be unlike any other particularly with the tech giants. any read we get, we could see disappointment severely punished. do we have a tipping point in markets? tom: it's the tension right now,

this distraction of russia but the bottom line is it's a massive mystery starting on the 14th of the month with jp morgan. we will -- lisa is taking off all of july but other than that-- lisa: pretty much. tom: there was a moment of silence for my vacation plans. dow futures are up 17. she did a killer job over the last 48 hours from brussels, coalescing all of the news on russia, maria tadeo joins us now from brussels. it seems like we are focused on belarus. sliced through the noise, what is the lesson for the observation from mr. lukashenko this morning? maria: the key question for me is what did he get out of this? what was he promised by vladimir putin? these to act like they are friends and allies but this is a

transactional relationship. vladimir putin has essentially sent awaypergosian away from russia and belarus will host him. lukashenko said he would harder -- on a part of his deal but what is in this deal for lukashenko? the future of wagner i'm not sure it's the end of it entirely but it's the end of wagner as we know it. lisa: we heard vladimir putin giving his first address since this news went down. people were surprised he didn't say more. what are some of the questions people are asking about why vladimir putin did grant amnesty after all of that and is his leadership truly threatened or is it basically behind them? maria: that speech from vladimir putin yesterday was pretty boring. there was a lot of thank you's to the people of russia for their patriotism.

we should note that we don't really know whether -- what the people of russia think because you have legislation that if you say anything against the war, it could put you in jail. it's difficult to tell. they were repeating they had crushed the rebellion. when it comes to pergosian it's unclear because yesterday, vladimir putin said the leaders will be brought to justice. this morning, the russian mod says that is closed. the key point is that we have not seen pictures or footage of pergtosian and we don't know where he is or his condition. tom: we will join you in the next hour to get a transatlantic perspective but right now, if all of this didn't happen, does mr. putin still had control of the military as he did five days ago? maria: it seems that's what he wants. the key point when it comes to wegner today is they have now

decided or agreed according to the russian mod to hand over their weapons. vladimir putin yesterday said either you joined the russian army or you go to belarus or just go home. yesterday, the defense minister was back in the picture so the objects around this is this is now the russian army and they will deal with the operation in ukraine. the plot up -- the problem for putin is wagner has operated better than the russian army in ukraine. tom: we will go to anne-marie porter and and little bit. h --ordern and a little bit. i love your note which goes to the heart of my thesis for 2023 which is corporations will adjust to the cards they are dealt. you talk about a new

corporation, a new constituency. our corporations adjusting to 2023 and the potential recession? >> i believe they are. they are certainly not holding the cards they once were during the globalization move we had had from 1980 through 2012. what we are finding is that their clout in congress is not as strong as they had in the past. we see that with activision and other challenges that a lot of these mega-cap tech companies are facing. i don't think they are holding the cards they had and they have to make an adjustment. lisa: the resilience in the market right now is shocking. we've gotten so much news whether it's russia and the uncertainty or the ecb and the hawkish tone, what do you attribute this incredible

resilience to, the fact that many stocks are shrugging off the walls of worry and saying we will do just fine? >> i think many investors are looking past the turmoil perhaps and focusing instead on mega cap tech as their savior. i think that has run a little too far. we have projected the s&p to be up between five and 7% this year. we are up nearly 14. i think there will be some sort of a reversal particularly when you look at the spread between snp cap weight and s&p equal weight. i think equal weight is up around 3% or something like that this year which is more in line with our forecast. we think we could get an index pullback but a broadening of breadth. lisa: people have reiterated

this type of sentiment and number of banks have downgraded some of the big tech names but not because they have that process testbed prospects, what is the catalyst when the idea of a hawkish central bank is not killing these stocks? >> right now, chairman powell is certainly flapping his arms for two more rate hikes. i call it the federal open mall policy. perhaps he won't have to execute on that plan. 5.25 percent i think is enough and i don't think we need to go farther than that. if you look at ppi's tends to lead cpi, i think we are up 2.8% this year so we are in a nice downward trajectory and inflation will cool off on his own -- on its own. once ecb and boe take the lead come i think the currencies will

move back to fair value. they are all undervalued. the yen is remarkably cheap relative to the dollar so that's a catalyst for international development. tom: push against the outrages bear douglascass. he is grim. i am hearing optimism from jack ablin. how do we establish a second leg to a bear market that was called in october? >> i think it's a handoff away from the mega cap texan a broadening of the u.s. large caps and to the average name, it's also a handoff from u.s. centric to international. look at the currencies, the euro is probably 20% cheap relative to the dollar and the yen probably 40% cheap relative to the dollar. you really have a couple of catalyst.

not only valuations are trading at roughly half that of u.s. large caps but you have currencies that are remarkably cheap on a purchasing power parity basis. from our perspective, you have two ways to win in trade like that. doug is a great guy and a smart guy and when he goes all is, i listen -- when he goes bullish i listen. tom: we believe that there. this is the debate right now. you have encapsulated this perfectly. we are on midyear reviews and outlooks and the disparity is just as stark as can be. lisa: you have the mike wilson's of the world of goldman sachs to seems to be joining them saying that valuations are capped where rates are at the fact that things have gone up so quickly. then other people are saying this is a game changer.

artificial intelligence there and better than expected connie. why can't you look at employment rates low? why can't you celebrate? tom: i think they were constructing a bullish scenario a bullish scenario couple of weeks ago. that has maybe drifted away. coming up, francine lacqua in portugal and the conversation with the international monetary fund. stay with us on radio and television, bloomberg surveillance. ♪

the first time your sales reached 100k with godaddy was also the first time your profits left you speechless. at the counter or on the go, save 20% with the lowest transaction fees and keep more of what you make. start saving today at godaddy.com

>> if putin is out, the person that may replace him, we may need to have a much more strong response to that kind of regime that may be much more hawkish and hardline than putin himself. tom: i will not mince words -- saturday night and the ks of a

select group of voices on twitter cut through like a knife. one of them was ian bremmer from yesterday and we will talk to julie norman in a moment. the president and chief executive officer of the center for european policy and analysis was just superb. lisa: the background to this is the uncertainties and the rumors abounded, the catastrophic scenarios and the potential goldilocks and errors in everyone says -- two days later what have we learned? tom: i agree we don't have much clarity right now. that's what we are all struggling for that's why we have maria tadeo reporting from brussels and anne-marie hordern in washington. futures are up seven and we will go to someone with a measured boys in these affairs, julie

norman has assisted us, her first work in academics was in terrorism but she has expanded far beyond that. how should the west respond to vladimir putin? >> in terms of what has happened this weekend, biden, nato and the west in general have been playing this right so far in that biden very quickly on saturday immediately made contact with moscow and said this is an internal affair and we are not having anything to do with this, this is in an outside job and they've been publicizing that communication since. they been trying to get ahead of a lengthy conspiracy theory within russia from putin himself about this being orchestrated from the west. i think they were right to have that communication but also to mostly stay quiet while this is playing out and let this be the internal affair that it essentially is.

we will -- they will continue to support ukraine as they have been. tom: do you think we will get a different theme from the dictator of russia? will he talk and some changed way about thenazification and these other inflammatory words? will we get a new script in 2023? >> one thing we know about putin is he is unpredictable. it's been hard to read his movements and his narratives throughout this whole war and even before that. the way he responds to this is still unclear. my sense is we could probably expect more of a doubling down on some of the terminology and the rhetoric and the policies he has been engaging in before. his response to everything that happened over the weekend was different than his usual playbook. we really don't know how he will move forward from this and what tactics he will use. i expect him to keep moving forward and i don't see him

stepping aside or something like that because of what transpired saturday. lisa: do you have a sense of what lukashenko is getting from belarus? >> it's a great question because that has been a bit of an unknown, what the role of lukashenko was in mediating and if he offered that and was asked to step in. this comes a week after pooping -- putin started moving tackle dual nukes into belarus. lukashenko is moving into being a stronger player than he normally is. i imagine there will be a lot of attention on him and belarus more broadly as the counteroffensive continues. lisa: i was reading part of the readout from the meeting and belarus between lukashenko and pergosian and the russian

counterparts in russian spokesperson said they were difficult conversations and they blurted out vulgar things and the conversation was hard. this is the readout that everyone can imagine. what are you asking going forward to indicate how much power putin still has and whether he has the consensus of the oligarchs and the consensus of the military? >> i think there are a couple of moving pieces here. the wagoner group will meet -- will be much more scaled-down. i would say it's a little premature but i don't think this will be a death knell kind of thing for putin. i think he will rebound from this and the other russian is what this will mean for the war. will this decrease morale to a

certain degree for russian troops that will change the dynamic of the counteroffensive? if i'm being honest, we just don't know enough now. tom: what do you think the next couple of days will bring? i love the idea we don't know where we are. what is your bet for the next 72 hours? >> i think we will see putin trying to regain and re-stabilize his authority. we've seen that over the last 24 hours. i expect we will see some of this play out on the battlefield as he tries to assert his control of the situation. tom: julie norman, thank you so much for joining us today.

she really crystallize the uncertainties and the different uncertainties with the same as this weekend, nothing has changed. lisa: which is remarkable given the fact that so many questions abounded. in markets, the response is pretty much nothing. if you cannot game out a signal area, ignored because there are so many uncertainties and that's we heard from our guests yesterday. they are wondering why they should plan on an extreme like this? tom: there is a weakness here on the u.s. dollar-ruble. other than the spike of the war, when we were speaking to our guests about this, the ruble is out to a new week is other than

that spike. we are above the long term moving average of weakness. i did not know that. there is real fragility there. lisa: the ruble is not necessarily a real market, not many people trade it and it limits further trading in that currency. oil prices are lower even as potential disruptions about copper prices lower and you could get some disruption in supply chains. we are not seeing a major reaction even though there are still so many questions remaining but one of the worlds biggest superpowers. tom: i thought newcastle coal was in england and i got an email from a guy who said no, it's, i can't pronounce it.

lisa: you thought it was a club team? tom: it's somewhere north. there was a commodity boom from 60-130 and we've given a quarter of it and a third of it but i take your point. the arch issue here is the im of call we witnessed in washington with global slowdown with copper is a global thermometer. lisa: and it's indicating downward this disinflation central bankers are counting on. carl weinberg yesterday was the most positive he's been since the 1960's because he thinks central banks will get back to their goal within the next year. tom: some of these grizzled guys that have been through this, they are not doing what we are doing. they are really thinking about the outcome 18 months out and

two years out and they are pushing and they have serious optimism. lisa: this is one of the tensions i find fascinating. bonds are pricing in the now which looks fraud and stocks are saying forget about now, it will be fine. which do you go with? tom: we will see, coming up, the first deputy managing director of the imf and the conversation with francine lacqua. that is next. ♪

back in the day, sneaker drops meant getting online to wait in line. now with xfinity mobile... ...we get the fastest mobile service and can get the freshest kicks asap. i got this.

save hundreds a year over t-mobile, at&t and verizon with the best price for two lines of unlimited. nice job, little sis! they grow up so fast... i'm a fan. from xfinity. to finally lose 80 pounds and keep it off with golo is amazing. i've been maintaining. the weight is gone and it's never coming back. with golo, i've not only kept off the weight but i'm happier, i'm healthier, and i have a new lease on life. golo is the only thing that will let you lose weight and keep it off. who loses 138 pounds in nine months? i did! golo's a lifestyle change and you make the change and it stays off. (soft music)

tom: bloomberg surveillance from new york. jonathan ferro is on assignment. we look at the end of june into july. we are focused on midyear outlooks but we are also focused very much on the path forward for our global economics. futures are up eight. lisa, what is the single thing you see on the datastream today? i got nothing going today. lisa: the euro is interesting because of the hawkish comments on the fact the ecb has been talked about continuing to hike rates and you see the euro at $1.10. the yield curve especially in europe is fascinating, the most inverted going back to 1992.

tom: a little less inversion in the united states. the 10 year real yield in the united states had a bit of a rebound in the last 24 hours back to 1.54% level. it is without question the hallmark research analysis of the year. you can hear the silence in washington as the international monetary fund the economics looked out to 2028 and saw a growth trajectory that took us back decades. it was an extraordinary call, a tepid economic growth and we need an update and we go to portugal and look at the meetings of the european central francine lacqua in conversation. good morning, francine. francine: i am lucky to be

joined by the leader of the imf who opened with a very powerful speech linking fiscal policy and monetary policy and reminding everyone they had to work in tandem. thank you so much for joining us. when you look at the fight against inflation, there is a lot of talk about recession and the fact that core inflation is still high but headline inflation is coming down. what does the policy mistake from central banks look like now? >> thank you for allowing me to join you. what we are experiencing is that inflation is taking a long time to get back to its target. the headline is coming down significantly but core inflation has eased but is still persistently high. in this environment, or advice is central banks will need to stay the course. in the case of the ecb, that will meet -- mean more continuing tightening and that will stay on hold to make sure you are confident that inflation is coming back down that could come along with more weakness in

labor markets than we have seen so far and more weakness in the economy in general. that is what is needed to bring inflation down. francine: there seems to be inflation is coming down and central banks will be ready to not hike as much as maybe they would. is there a danger the market's mispricing something that will then create an event? >> the markets have been off since the start of this year. if you look at the expectations of the policy rate in some countries especially the u.s., they were expecting three rate cuts this year for u.s. fed policy and they have adjusted. they'd come back to recognizing that we are here for longer than was expected. i think markets have been very optimistic and i suspect they are still somewhat optimistic about where interest rates will go. francine: what is most misunderstood? to interest rates have to remain

higher for longer or they have to rise higher than expected? >> i think it's how long they will stay there. that's the part where there is a disconnect between the markets and what central banks are signaling. so far, the markets have had to correct to central banks as far -- as opposed to the other way around. francine: what's the path forward for growth? >> we are seeing growth weakening. we are seeing slowing activity at this point. we need to bring inflation down to have sustainable growth which is why it's super important to do this. since is not just a demand phenomenon, we've had supply disruptions correct themselves and had energy prices come down. both of those factors are helping bring inflation down without needing too much of a hit to the economy. i think we have to wait and see. we are only seeing the effects

of policy now and we could see more slowing. francine: what is a keep surprising us to the upside? >> it's a big part of the conversation we have at centra. is it that you haven't raised interest rates enough? questions are coming up and we have a situation where it has been the case that house balance sheets and corporate balance sheets have helped hold up resilience. labor markets are tight and people believe they will have a job. wages are going up and services pending tend to be much less interest sensitive when it comes to durable goods which consumers have piled up on during the pandemic. all of these factors could be muting the effect of monetary policy transmission. as those effects declined now,

we can start seeing more of a slowing inactivity. francine: could there be some kind of spiral with wages going up and prices going up and you lose control? are we there yet? >> i don't think so. we are not seeing that in the u.s. for the euro area. we are seeing the wages catch up and that's happened in previous cycles as well. we should expect to see that but we are not seeing wages pushing up prices. the concern is that if it take so long to bring inflation down, you might unhinged inflation expectations and then trigger something else. this is what president lagarde talked about the persistence of inflation and the reason to stay high for longer. francine: is that white interest rates have to stay higher for longer? is it tried to break through the spiral that could be possible? >> if you look at projections for when inflation gets back to target, in the euro area, it's

the middle of 2025. that's two years from now which is a long time. that's why it is critical you cannot have any further risks to de-anchoring of inflation. two years as a long time to bring inflation back down to target. to make sure it happens, you have to stay the course and keep interest rates i. until you see durable signs that core inflation is coming down, you have to be data-dependent. francine: all the central bankers were here and i saw jay powell walk-in in sneakers. is the gravitational pull of what the fed does to heavy a hand for the ecb but also the bank of england and bank of japan? >> what the fed does matters for the whole world but i think this is a time central bankers are coming together to understand inflation dynamics better. there are still several questions. there is a lot of uncertainty on the outlook. centra is a good learning

experience for all central bankers. francine: we are seeing inflation rise demeans the cost of living goes up so is understandable that politicians want to be there for their citizens. >> it's perfectly good for governments to want to be there for their cities and provide targeted support. what is not really good at this point would be to have broad-based support that generates very large fiscal deficits and increases fiscal deficits and that feeds into inflation. that is a problem. the fact that we have high inflation now and the debt is high and we need to build buffers as they will be future shocks, all of that points to fiscal tightening and that's what we are recommending. francine: you look at the big central bankers around the world and dealing with an elation, who has the toughest job, bank of england? >> among the major ones, in that u.k., the inflation problem

looks more difficult than in other parts of the world. they have some supply shock problem and they came through the energy crisis they have the demand side which is tight. if you look at wages, and england, it's where you see the most amount of wage pressures coming in. francine: how do they get out of that? it's not as easy as to keep hiking because the housing market is sensitive to that. >> the fact that the bank of england raised rates 50 basis points recently in their most recent meeting, that's a welcome step in a clear signal that they are in the fight to bring inflation down. one of the reasons they've been somewhat cautious is what can happen in the housing market. there has been an increase in the duration of fixed rate mortgages in the u.k. so you have some attenuation that affect. housel balance sheets are stronger than they were in the past.

francine: tom keene is talking about your outlook and what we saw a couple of weeks ago by the imf. are you more optimistic now about the world economy in 2024 than you were six months ago? >> we had a projection for the world economy to grow at around 2.8% this year which was coming down from 3.4% last year and going up to around 3%. our new numbers will be out in july. we don't have it ready at this point. we are getting different data from different countries at this point but the overall story of an economy that is slower this year than it was last year will remain. francine: how much of the conversation is trying to understand the forecast going forward and how central banks can do a better job to understand the effect monetary policy has on future inflation? >> everyone is trying to understand how economic activity is trying to see how the

economic activity is affecting things. the expectation is more slowing down already. the surprises on the resilience of economic activity. we don't want to extrapolate that the resilience will continue so it's a typical job for central bankers at this point. they have to watch the data carefully. at the same time, they had to show real commitment to bringing inflation down. francine:, thank you so much. i also spotted the new central bank of japan area it's like a rock concert for nerds. we were quite excited. he's been traveling since he was made governor outside of japan. tom: the end i got lost in the mail and lisa was looking through her mail today. all i can say is you and dr.gopinath, i can see you having the scenario at p casaaquida in centra.

it's a sweet cream dusted with sugar on top. lisa: i'm sure it will be enjoyable, francine, thank you so much. tom: maria goes to all these terrible places that are cold with no coffee in francine lacqua is having the best she can find. lisa: every shot of maria with her hair blowing around because it's always windy, it's interesting the difference between jackson hole and sintra. sintra is civilized and jackson hole is the rugged american world of fdr and teddy roosevelt. tom: there is -- they are different and there is discussion of making jackson hole more sintra and there is more academic pushback to that. the economist enjoy the rigor and the almost jesuit certitude of jackson hole. they are serious about the

papers and michael mckee is all over this stuff. sintra is like a modern conference. we are selling this, help us out here. we will take ferro if he comes back. the really serious thing and the conversation stopped there is g dr.opinath said we don't really know in july whatever update looks like. there was a pause there in the conversation. lisa: it seems that people are speculating in markets and the economy but it will happen quickly. we heard about this rapid disinflation from morgan stanley. a lot of the market prognosticators and economists don't want to come out with the surgeon and follow the price action. that's what we keep hearing from a lot of people in the market as they reassess. we like markets now because the mood has shifted. is this just price dictating?

tom: michaeldarda encapsulated this yesterday. he had bulls behind him but he said if it's disinflation with the imf declining real gdp as well, others are more optimistic on that. coming up next, looking to july, the chief fx strategist s atopgen and we will speak to him about what we can read in the leaves of the foreign exchange market. this is bloomberg surveillance ♪ .

it can happen to the people who teach us and rescue us, the people on our team and in our family. it can happen to the people who serve us and the people who served. the people we work late with and stay out late with. it can even happen to the person in the mirror. opioid use disorder is a disease that can happen to any of us. it's possible recovery can happen to any of us, too.

>> we are seeing a good bite of the dollar and underline float data at a carry trade led by commodity currencies and high-yield and ai stocks and things like that. that seems to be on the cusp of unwinding. this cannot advance much further so we are looking at risk

probably softening in the short-term. tom: jeffrey yu with massive critical thinking skills across equities, bonds, currencies and commodities. he is a jewel at bny mellon. we should have them on every day. futures are up 10 and dow futures are up at 13. when is walgreens out? lisa: 7:00 a.m. tom: it possibly may come down to what corporations say about the market in heaven for bit it's not econo-babble. lisa: earnings beat expect tatian's on test expectations on

a cruise line. do we see something similar with tech or similar with other consumer discretionary and to me, this is the key question heading into the middle of july. tom: it's something to see and all that wrapped around what we are looking at each and every day which is stasis in foreign exchange. joining us now iskit juske, their chief foreign exchange strategist. is there a clear vision to the memo? it's in the death of summer you will spend all of july and august in spain on the beach. i just want to know, is there a juske vision or are you waiting to see what happens? >> there is a vision but there is uncertainty about time.

i was listening to dr. gopinath saying she was uncertain about the legs and everyone is impatient for the lag to play out. it will play out in its own time because the single most unique future of the cycle is that we ended up with easy monetary policy and easy fiscal policy and really tight labor markets because of the pandemic. from there, tightening and getting that out is taking longer than we thought. i sit there thinking that in one of the next 26 thursdays, i will come in one day and see weekly jobless claims that makes my mouth open -- that makes my mouth hanging open. this cycle will end in this plane will land. we are completely at a loss to try to figure out how long those lags are we are nervous that when it does lag, will it lend as softly as we would like? that vision is super clear. what is terribly difficult is to

get how long it takes to play out. lisa: she thinks the u.k.'s and the worst spot of all the central banks in terms of combating inflation. is this supportive of the pound or negative for the pound? it means higher rates and slower growth. >> right now, markets are more myopically focused on short-term interest rate differentials than i can remember. right now the pound is doing well but in the long run, if you've got a lousy growth inflation trade-off is what we got, got to get rates up a lot and then you get a worse economic slowdown and you will get more rate cuts. we are supposed to be taking this as strong as we can get them and turning it into something useful like swedish krona. i want to have loads of fun and sweden due to the exchange rate.

tom: you and i have to get our heads examined. do you see how he talks about vacation like jonathan ferro does? it's like a god-given right. it's like the king dissented and said take august off. lisa: come do that in the u.s. as we look for this, i support this wholeheartedly. tom: i need to go to spain for one day, where do i fly into? lisa: absolutely. when we talk about our travel plans, let's talk about the dollar. how strong will the dollar b versus these currencies as we plan our one-day vacations? are we entering a reversal period of dollar weakness in the first half of the rub or has what we heard from the ecb and the bank of england and her generally around the world really challenging that an

indicating were weakness ahead? >> i think you will get more weakness ahead for the dollar but it still strong. i think we have seen buying of dollars from people were trading u.s. exceptionalism and ai stocks and trading the u.s. economy which is not slowing down yet. the market is pricing in the fact that the fed is not peaked yet. there will be some people who will turn around and say they will never be another u.s. recession. as those people get themselves priced in which i don't think is far from here, that's as good as the dollar can get. you have a strong currency today and i will might be strong forever. tom: frame out the opportunity on the pacific rim with the shock and all of the yuan. it's of valuation of the chinese

yuan and i will let you decide where that tipping point is but all eyes are on 7:15 a.m. frame out the opportunity on the pacific rim. >> the chinese opportunity is the chinese have a problem reviving their economy with not much inflation. there is just these are not big moves in percentage terms of they could go further. i worried that if china tries to revive its economy it can easily go back to the boost the real estate market. they will probably have to make manufactured goods and sell them to the rest of us. the -- the may get some pain in china. the pain will then spread. i wouldn't want to be terribly long on the australian dollar today if that -- if they are

trying to sell iron were to the chinese economy that is struggling. as you can see this year, one of the features this year is the strongest currencies have been central and european ones that have fought inflation hard and latin american ones. there are no strong asian currencies this year. i think that's what tells you the market is getting this to some degree. i set the other currencies against the yen because the yen will start frustrating people until it goes up. tom: i need to extend this conversation but we are out of time. this morning, this is really important and it goes back to

the advent of bloomberg surveillance and bloomberg on the economy. we don't talk to each other. this is really important -- we don't compare notes in the morning. there is no meeting where we get together and say did you hear kit jukes notes? that's the magic of how we do this. lisa: no one is listening to the surprise that we don't talk to each other before this show. tom: oh, we have to have a meeting. no, we are not. let lisa reads what she reads. lisa: at 9 p.m. last night, i was wondering whether some of the indicators we are looking at are broken and whether the yield curve is broken, whether oil is an indicator is broken, whether

we can look at some of the distortions at the region grew back to a pre-monetary world. are we in something where those indicators don't work? tom: here is my answer and i go to the great phd edward denning. patients. we had a pandemic. i was so wrong about the pandemic. my grandmother born in 1907 used to lecture me in the pandemic in 1917. we are coming out of a pandemic in its totally original. patience. futures are up 11 and advancing on optimism. we are on radio and television, please, stay with us. stuart keiser the optimist is next. ♪

it's an amazing thing when you show generosity of spirit to someone.

and you want people to be saved and to have a better life, then you don't stop. the idea that we have saved five million people's lives, it's overwhelming. it's everything. >> we are seeing clear signs of demand slowdown. >> we are slowing there is no doubt about that of the recession debate until used to go on. >>'s are not to see auction price levels as compelling. -- it is hard not to see auction price levels as telling. >> this is bloomberg surveillance. tom: good morning everyone. we have bloomberg surveillance on radio and television.

july 14, jp morgan and selected other banks we start with them. futures up 10 now up 14. and we have a report on that who will join us in this hour with anne-marie for updates on that. lisa: we see earnings. any kind of disappointment will be dishing. -- punishing. eps for the first quarter down 5% at one point. this to me is the question, how many people -- tom: walgreens blueb --boots alliance has been flat over the last 10 years 325,000 boy out of deerfield, illinois that

basically cannot get out of the way. we get the restructuring of this train wreck which goes back to to go to 2014? lisa: there's a lot of questions about the idiosyncratic and the larger question. what people can buy on line with amazon or example and what do we do with the security safety issues we keep hearing about and the cosmetic trend that people keep going after. we see resilient markets when interest rates are going up. we see central bankers coming out and doubling down. tom: so we are really committed, we will do this over the next few weeks to dive more into earnings. will do this with the toll on bloomberg to get the hour started.

are doing much. 10 year yield 3.73. and crude is at 68.52. at west texas crude intermediate. and with the ratio for walgreens, the five cents on the dollar of the net come is three cents on the dollar. is that a business? i am not sure it is. lisa: you're saying it's not a business? tom: is -- i am saying it's a tough business. lisa: yes the forum with christine lagarde giving the speech earlier. and germany with the u.s. is the most inverted going back to 1992 in a timer seen guard is saying that july is a give when it comes to rate hike. a lot of housing data continues.

at 9:00 have more logic on this. we have massive declines in home prices on average. when we look forward, is this a passing trend? is this a lagging indicator when we see sign of shoot of optimism. on the walgreens point, i want to give you headlines area walgreens is the voyeur of adjusted yes to four dollars -- adjusted eps to four dollars. they had seen 4.45 up to 4.65. how much do we see shares pummeled if anything is disappointed? tom: there is only one person to answer the question which is walgreens analyst stuart kaiser. under you talk about individual stocks, but this is a micro because of arnie. -- earnings. >> the earnings have been

surprising in a painful way and bearish on a year to date basis. the bar is high going into earnings this order particularly in this space. receive investors gravitate toward this -- we have seen investors gravitate toward this stock. you feel like you can rely on the stock with your earnings perspective. tom: what do security analysts to. i get all the feet from citigroup. and jane fraser logs in on that first but at the bottom line what they say about this season? stuart: i think it will be a mixed bag. the question is where do you the most focus? to be a ceo taking to the walgreens conversation is the service side of vehicle and the labor market -- and consumer spending that you need to pay attention to and the other half

of the year. lisa: it was not a severe disappointment but it was a disappointment, what does it say about the selloff if there is any crack in any of the big tech names given where vibrations and expectations are and given how lofty the stock prices are right now. stuart: it will be a minefield for tech earnings. you look at july 24-july 30 -- i think the last week of earnings will be easy for you all. when you look at the last quarter, a stock at microsoft and nvidia still rise on earnings. tom: headline out right now. delta airlines for profit-making travel in july.

lisa: are you basically treat -- tweaking my -- tom: why don't you visit this year. the free cash flow was greater than $2 billion. they had a 50% left. lisa: this is been the story people keep traveling. the distortions pandemic and it continues given the post-pandemic distortions. before we went on we were talking about how will do keep on spending. they were conditioned feeling like they have to sees life at the horn. how does that color your view of whether you are more optimistic or pessimistic get the reality of arnie? -- earnings? stuart: if we get a root -- in the second half of the year it will have to come from the consumer labor market.

there is a high opportunity for tech because it has been a leader in the market. there's been a lot of focus on consumer companies. and will they start counting disinflation to get people in the door? those are into areas they will focus on coming up. with what signal we are getting on consumer spending. lisa: what does it mean that tech earnings are a minefield in a time where you are optimistic about where the market is headed? stuart: the tech trade as we said is not as clean as it was at the beginning of the year. the bottom line is, if you look at sales revision, they have been higher for tech and higher in the ai space. that says the bar higher for expectations. what we see in the last 1-2 months is there is some fatigue

for this outflow of the space. you put the two together with a high bar and fatigue on the additional side which sets up the point that you need to deliver the results here to justify your results. tom: i want to talk to you right now. you have been brilliant with the rest of citigroup to say you have to be in the game to win. talk about market timing right now the efficacy at the hyper cautious versus the optimistic. stuart: i even think our optimism is a little tired to be really honest with you. part of it is price action and it is one of the reasons we were more bullish at the beginning of the year is so much stock sold at the beginning of the year and we thought those positions need rebuilt. those positions largely have been rebuilt now. from our perspective, it does impact this a little bit. we are relatively positive.

when we look at the head when we say up rather than down at this point, but it is definitely -- tom: that is the nature of a bull market. i'm sorry. we did not have our first leg of the match. we got off the map and went but it is not supposed to be like that now. stuart: no it is not for a number of reasons. you had a positive economic data is rise to start off the air -- year. you get above 4400, and it looks like the institutional investors are pausing in terms of the inflow to the market. that means 1-2 things you need to take recession risk out of the system. or you will need retail to continue to sponsor the market to the upside. lisa: are you one of the people that say if there is a selloff in tech that it is a viable dip?

stuart: it means markets would be down in general. you're not going to get tech down with markets up. if we get a bowl by back here i agree with you we have people waiting to get into the market with it lower3 we are -- lower. we are in the pain trade right now to the upside. people have to average themselves in. the floor is higher than it was to start the year. i agree with you i don't want to call it value but you will have people happy to buy the market. tom: i don't know if you knew this, this is brilliant story [indiscernible] she is doing viable dip. it is great. it's a picnic boat.

it is like the hinckley but it has more character. lisa: i think i got lost in the blowout paddleboard instead. that passed me. tom: i'm sorry, the east bay is better. lisa: when was the last time you were on a boat? come on. tom: it was called the uss drama mean. lisa: that sounds more like it. [laughter] stay with us futures are up nine. this is bloomberg surveillance. get running. -- good morning. lisa: let's dig into the walgreens details. the share is up four dollars .5 -- $4.5. 0

. there are a select group of people getting affected by a softening argued. tom: i would say in each and every battle of slowdown of recession outright pain which is nobody calling for it but it is lumpy. i do not like the phrase lonely recession i ever liked it or seen a quantifiable study on that. maybe i can be corrected on that. but the bottom line is that it is lumpy and something has to be done. lisa: in other words amazon is stealing their lunch and we see that from walmart as well. they have proved their online presence you have to have a certain amount of investment to get the critical mass to finance the new world which is tech induced shopping.

tom: it is technology in all of this. amazon on the back 180 on the pandemic overbilled. and bareback one third going to 8127. that is a great sale bow. -- bounce. that is my technical analysis. coming up in the next hour we have cameron paulson in the 8:00 hour. looking over to that. i'm watching oil 68.44 in american oil. good morning. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> you have no excuse to blame this on the west or nato. we made it clear that we were not involved. we had nothing to do with it. this is part of a struggle within the russian system. tom: the president of the united states delicately yesterday

within the russian system president biden speaking on all we have seen out of russia in the last 72 hours. we had him reported yesterday with her heritage of travels in russia over the years. foundation only -- foundational he, they join us for morning brief. maria i will go to you first. can you describe to me but in the russian system means? i'm fascinated by your interpretation what is the russian system right now? maria: president biden a have said this in reference to nato. and i believe this was a power struggle. they said they let the situation get out of and. when he says we, it is wagoner,,

and himself in the midst of this deal. -- is putin and himself the midst of this deal. -- it is clear that there's been an ultimatum that has been given to wagoner. you are given the weapons and been you go away and he either joined the russian army or are out. and they -- the big question now is how this will affect the war in you reign because they performed better been the russian army. tom: emily within the russian system, your effective of how the institution of washington should react if the russian system has 1674 oil will ic be -- weapons they can be aimed at the midwest.

>> what he is talking about is the power structure that this is in essence a military security stake. obviously the kremlin, none of those agencies came behind in support of getting that. that is why this was a failed mutiny. it dissolved quickly. even though had to use that in an -- at the brink. my question is why he did not get in sooner win for weeks and month teen new they were exasperated with the military. i was struck with what we heard from admiral john kirby was asked in the briefing room about if this weekends. he did -- if this makes weaker. he did not want to go -- if this makes putin weaker.

he really did not want to go there. at the end of the day, when look at what is happening russian today he convened with the top agencies today and speaking right now with russian servicemen and ella terry -- military. this man maintains a lot of power and john kirby says all of it is in ukraine right now. lisa: and they said the nuclear threat was not seen as elevated. they did not lean into the idea that this raises the risk of nuclear liberation or an elevated measure taken by vladimir putin. is there a reason why we can see that they say this with such assertion? >> if they have not changed how they want to assess his nuclear is in the half, that does not change is how they view it today.

officials are concerned that this might obviously mean who is putin -- he was already paranoid he could double down. this could mean he could become more aggressive which could be used to the use of new your weapons -- nuclear weapons or more violent weapon. at the moment the u.s. does not see the need to change the posture. there's a tremendous amount of questions in the united states about what happened in the weekend. that is something the president admiral kirby is getting at. the point they want to get across and what we heard from putin in the past whether it is blaming the united states about russian backed leaders in you reign that were ousted -- in ukraine that were ousted, they have always place the blame with

that and president biden wanted to get ahead about narrative. lisa: the ukraine may use this opportunity to make roads in the war that russia has been declaring on them. do we have a sense of how they will try to use this to their advantage? are there early signs about? >> two things. one is the optics. i spoke to a ukrainian official saying there was mutiny and now vladimir putin seems to have calm things down but they say that russia is not an invincible country. to me the real question is if you have wagoner who gets incorporated in the russian army and whether it is the russian officials that have a lush handle this operation they can

see the heavy fighting is done by wagoner and there are russians of how russia has an old situation on the battlefield. if that continues it could be a competitive advantage. tom: thank you so much. we greatly appreciated this morning. you look for balance of power tonight with them as well. red and green on the screen on the data front and on the yield as well. two year yield flat. oil 69 up to the 70 level yesterday we drifted down a dollar we are on a d8 handle 68.39. rick prude threatening a 72 handle -- brent crude threatening a 72 handle 73.11. i thought they were just

brilliant on the noise of foreign-exchange. lisa: china has been intervening in a big way to sustain the losses. they have been concerned the previous efforts did not work. this is been a big issue and question hanging over global market. i wonder how much oil is a litmus paper for people receiving china versus larger questions on the state of a global economy. tom: can we say delta airlines lifted the market? we can possibly look at that. lisa: is that a pun? [laughter] tom: no. the nasdaq is up .4%. and walgreens boost drove us up. lisa: no walgreens is not doing so hot. we see -- they see full-year adjusted earnings per share at the high-end five dollars or six

dollars. but it is given guidance for strong demand for people like myself that are doing vacation plans. tom: six lines on the vco screen say it is a mike mckee day. we have not talked about this it is 7:24 in new york. there was a ball of economic data. lisa: it's not just housing prices. i'm curious to get the dallas fed services activity. we got manufacturing activity yesterday and it was just -- disappointing. this is something that people have been pointing to with a recession. do we get the same downward trend in services which would indicate a rolling service as you say. tom: i've never looked at the dallas services index. it was leveling in the pandemic

rush. they rebound off of those stimulus with biden. and two years ago, it was at the peak and it is moving down since then. if it breaks from here it is a big deal. lisa: that is what some people are saying. tom: stay with us. we have team coverage on the dallas service sector. an outlet on the fed of dallas. we will bring that to you only on surveillance. futures up seven. good morning. this is bloomberg. ♪ manage all your sales from one place with a partner that always puts you first. (we did it) start today at godaddy.com

bridgett is here. she has no clue that i'm here. she has no clue who's in the helmet. are you ready? -i'm ready! alright.

xfinity rewards creates experiences big and small, and once-in-a-lifetime. aany questions?dy -yeah, i got one. how about the best network imaginable? let's invent that. that's what we do here. quick survey. who wants the internet to work, pretty much everywhere. and it needs to smooth, like super, super, super, super smooth.

hey, should you be drinking that? -it's decaf. because we're busy women. we don't have time for lag or buffering. who doesn't want internet that helps a.i. do your homework even faster. come again. -sorry, what was that? introducing the next generation 10g network only from xfinity. the future starts now.

tom: bloomberg surveillance. good morning everyone. across the markets, there is nuance. economic data in the yield 3.2%. we will talk about that and what it means for the housing market. the nasdaq up 1.4 percent today. that gets my attention. i looked at the bank to see -- the nasdaq is up .14 percent today. that gets my attention. -- i like to the yield and i said of market luck.

they should really come up. lisa: they need to because people are aware they will not go into those cd or instrument in less we see flight intentionally from the bank. let me give you names. i have walgreens i want to take a look at walgreens. to reiterate what we have seen they are down almost 7% after slashing its full-year full cast for adjusted earnings per share. saying it is because people are choosing less uncoated and they got the flu less and people have less income. what i find interesting is this is a profit margin story. revenue was 35 -- $85 billion which be expectations by more than $1 billion but for me the margin is what i watching. tom: i don't know what to make of it is that it has been a challenge. he goes back almost 10 years now

. it is not like bed, bath & beyond but this is a tinge like that. lisa: they are trying to complete the margin and again headway with respect to collage -- cosmetics. delta raised their outlook guidance for 2023 and 2024. they expect free cash flow to total up $2 million from previously. the shares up .1%. tesla is fascinating to me. this is a bellwether for the market. shares up by about 1% today they were down more than percent yesterday. goldman tax upgraded the recommendation of them and it was the biggest selloff. people are seeing if tesla will be the bellwether so -- not in

terms of delivering the expectation the people are looking for with the electric goal charging network as well as the dominance in the space. tom: was go from the equity market back to the bond market. there was an adjustment yield. somebody fully on with that the last time he was on he is mesmerizing he is managing director of strategic income eagle asset management james camp. thank you for coming back to the show. you have clarity to the -- you are writing, it is simple you are looking for a 4% 10 year yield. what does our world look like if we get that? james: good morning. it is a slowing economy. i think the fed reserve has told is the only way out of it nation is to have a recession. i think we should take them at

their word that they will continue to push short-term interest rates and there will be follow on effects with long-term interest rates to get the economy just load out. that is only -- to slow down. that is the only way out this. i think this summer we will have the lowest cpi brent that we have had all year in june. those years will be beat as we move into july and the fed will have all the info that it needs to hike. we think we may get an intermediate term of through the -- term after that. tom: let me ask an open question. if we get this world, what does the housing market and organ securities and commercial real estate look like? james: it will be a challenge

because we have never replace those models. we have a cobbled together secondary market for commercial. we have a banking is done now where the price is behind us, but we have big balance sheets that are under stress. i think it will show that it is having a little bit of the bow. that is -- bounce. the housing market will probably slow in the back half of the year. lisa: i talk about this fed reserve paper that came out the last couple days where they said the share of nonfinancial firms in nonfinancial distress is higher than the most devious episode since the 1970's. why did we not see it in credit dilations and in a more dramatic increase in bankruptcies?

james: because it happened so quickly. it was 12 months ago the balance sheet was still expanding. people need to remember we are only 12 months into this cycle. it's been an abrupt move. the effects of which we talk about the inverted yield curve, they will not show up right away. what we are seeing is those things are taking hold in economy were getting the real interest rate that is positive and credit conditions that are tightening. the fed's work is just starting at this juncture. lisa: using about stock traders that talk as though they are bond analyst and we are looking at bond strategist as stock experts with respect to valuation. how much are earning with the is going to be a tipping point for the equity -- tipping point for the equity market and affect the outlook. james: great point.

we work and in glove with our equity. as you mention, there are companies pushing topline revenue growth because they have pricing power. once that rose, we see them tapping into savings and our debt going up. we see the cost of the debt going up. you see the pressure on arjun with part of the inflation story as labor. you do not have come -- somebody come into a job that will make $20 around and turn around for something that is $15 an hour area companies will not be able to wish and underlying cost structure. we think margins will come down. tom: gets it fixed income chat but i want to ask you about the equity market. do you think it is extended or are we near the next leg of a bull market? james: i think it is extended and vulnerable.

it goes to the point of where did it come from? it is that companies were able to demand in the first time in decades higher demand for services. as it works off, the data we see with the underlying cost structure because of the labor market will put pressure on margins. the labor market has a seat at the table today. this is a different world than recovered -- pre-covid. -- we have work from home and other dynamics to wish now. margin pressure is real and that is where the equity markets will begin correction probably in q3 and q4 this year. tom: if the fed adapts to this view, what is the asymmetry at four sit on your 10 your yield called? you can blow easily through 4%?

james: it could the federal reserve will get what it wants. given the changes we see of your economy, but when we see that we have a readjusting in the fed policy. if we get the slowdown we are calling for and we have some unemployment numbers, we may be looking at early 2024 or spring of next year with an aggressive about-face of the fed. that means bonds will have a cello and in the return standpoint. lisa: this is increasing consensus. we have almost five percentage point of a rate cycle priced in for the first half of the year. -- .5 percentage point of the

rate cycle priced in in the first half of the year. -- the portfolio arrangement may retain some of its past glory. james: i agree without that 2022 was the along many. we have relation across the asset board. that was the regime shift that happened weekly on the capital market. i think the 60/40 balanced approach. free cash flow from dividend and dividend growth in the most generous buying yield we have make investment incomes based -- space as low of a proposition as we have had in a wild. the negative relation is back. tom: thank you so much. red and green on the screen. 3.72% on the 10 your yield. what i find -- year yield.

what i find fascinating on this is the bloomberg total in their -- total index does. to take the total return index rice up down is been challenging. -- try -- price up yield down has been challenging. sometimes they will say for a moment we do this but what if it breaks down again? lisa: we just had the worst the selloff in bond space. it was an unprecedented year of declines. at a time where credit quality is not terrible we did not have a bankruptcy cycle. and there was a statement this morning saying that the quality of auto loan is an mortgages is better now than it was 10 years ago, because of the nature of how things matured. if that is the case, then you have a balance there. the equity life of credit versus

the benchmark russian of where we go with rate and term inflation expectations. tom: i would bring it to who gets a real wage gain but gets a better worse wage gain than many other people and society. it's going to be fascinating to see. right now the vix 14.2 seven down -29 points. standard course 500 worked up fractionally up .2%. lisa: you talk about the labor market and misses the mystery of what happens next. kpmg the story in etf yesterday cutting five cent of its workforce because of the slowdown in demand for consulting and other services. we've seen 11,000 job cuts announced by wall street banks

and ford announced overnight that they will cut jobs today and tomorrow in their salary workers. this is all coming as they remain low. tom: percolating on this -- is this a white color slowdown? lisa: people are saying it is a white color recession -- c ollar recession. tom: i think the jury is out on that right now. lisa: i think you are correct. that is why people say this might in reese. tom: what is my story on the day? this is on you on three anova -- she is down in baltimore this is on the bank of japan prices as

they will surprise and finally give way. it is out of the yen of 150. euro-yen is extraordinary. this is what are going for at td securities look set. the euro in is at 157. not at every level but in recent history strong on japan. we will have an -- are reported in that with bloomberg. coming up we have cameron dawson joining us -- we have darlie come --darwie kung joining us. stick with us. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> we need to bring inflation down to have sustainability. this time around since it is not a demand phenomena we have supply disruptions correcting the cells and energy races coming down area that is helping

bring inflation down without having too much of a hit the economy. we will have to wait and see. we are only just seeing the effects of this working through the system. tom: we will have to wait and see she sounds like the economist she is. the imf managing director. tough sledding for francine lacqua. think of the movie frozen, let it go. let it go. it is this gorgeous 18th-century 17th century set of little shadows and fancy laces where fancy people live. that is where the ecb holds a summer meeting with the group speaking earlier today. tomorrow we will give a coverage of central bank. look for francine lacqua and

pulse we will have it there for you from 4:00 a.m. new york times. red and green on the screen. right now we look at commodities. an important study right now as you were mentioning earlier. portfolio manager out of commodities pws joining us right now. you are the grizzled veteran here, is copper the, oddity -- the commodity to study given the slowdown in asia growth? >> it is definitely very important. it covers one particular part of the chinese in enemy -- economy, the industrial park. we see the price refracting -- reflecting copper price. and it shows that potential future of support from the chinese government.

even with proper -- property market or infrastructure or other parts of the -- economy being more part of the industrial side of the chinese economy. it is not rising to see copper price coming down from $8,600 rotunda. there's even been a lack of -- 36 that -- $86,000 per ton. tom: i'm sure you saw the call 10-12 weeks ago for tepid global growth out to 2028. if we get the imf call, what does supply and demand dynamics of commodities to area i cannot imagine. i don't we've ever been here. darwei: that's a very pessimistic view of the economy. one thing i would say is even

though the demand side can be impacted by that, the supply-side is discipline by across the board by various producers both in the metals side as well as energy. we do anticipate very tight capital spending and that is the case for several years now where mining companies are focusing on paying out the cash flow to the investors rather than trying to come back with large projects. we anticipate discipline in the production side of commodities. that said, if we have severe negative downturn, for growth, we will see surplus with the board of commodities. lisa: you are among many strategists who got it correctly in terms of crude with the demand force life on the heels of russia's war in you rain and

the recovery in china. as you look at this over the next six months do you see this move delayed as the rise of root going up or do you see is as a new paradigm taking away some of the old rationale? darwei: one of the things we did not perceive will be had this breakout last year was how much inflationary pressure when triggered the fed to raise rates as aggressively as they did and what impact it would have to to the u.s. and globally on ami -- global economy. and with the chinese government with respect to keeping the economy going, and the determination to turn inward to domestic consumption. the economic policy shift had a dramatic impact on these commodities as well. we see those two factors playing

out. we see new demand, but it will come slower. we anticipate the price to rise from here for oil in to killer by the end of the year we anticipate the balance to go back into deficit again. we are anticipating parts of it going up. the forecast a year from now is $87 for brent and $84 for wti. lisa: when you talk about demand coming online delta came out with their projection this running ahead of their annual shareholder meeting. it is an increase again. the pricing power is incredible and the amount of travel has underway all fixation -- all expectations -- has blown away all expectations. why do you see that we are seeing implications of the rate hike will that divide a lot of what we thought?

darwei: that is a great point. we have demand and service pmi is jill strong across the board. demand for air traffic and ground traffic has been robust. driving and flight data is about expectation about 2019 level recovered level. if you look at the industrial side, the heavy vehicle use it industrial production use coming down to bit. the manufacturing pmi reflects the same story. we have a couple countries that are exceptions but most countries are below 50 with manufacturing pmi. that has a drag for oil demand. the balance of the two is still positive from our perspective. but not compared to last year. tom: the electric vehicle ballet with the batteries, what will it

do to the hydrocarbon world? what is the ev impact on brent demand? darwei: great question. i think the short term the impact is imminent -- limited. china has been best in terms of adaptation with this purchase of ev. over 3 million vehicles to date so far. 30% are this ev vehicle. they are targeting is as 20 sent by 2030. the u.s. is the third amongst the buyers of the vehicle. with the positive number, it has come about bit growth rate year-over-year it is significant. but 100 million vehicles outstanding, there is a conventional -- it's not a conventional fuel source. i think in the future we will

see oil demand continued to scale through traffic by 20 five we will start to see turning point on the traffic. by 2030, we will probably see some level peak for ground transportation demand. at that point we will see the ev part of the transportation more dominant. tom: we got to go longer on this next time. thank you for joining us. with dws commodities and the mystery of china as well. i've not done homework on this other than to say we are focused on who will get tesla recharging on electrics of. you have a whole lithium battery disaster in new york city with buildings literally burning down. there's all of these inflammatory stories but the mother of all worries is if ev infringes what does it do to oil demand? i'm not seen a killer study on

this. lisa: the study on automobile use on this came out yesterday. it indicated there is a record about travel plans and in effect during the summer season. yet we are not seeing the translation into popular demand with gasoline. that is the issue with respect to china, how much of that is a story there as well given that there is a more inward of domestic travel and consumption. there is a greater adoption electric. tom: i have to admit the radar is up on this it sounds like a free lunch and from a thermodynamic basis i think my course is set. this cannot be a free lunch. we are like free lunching it into their thousand four -- into 2004. red and green on the screen futures up by -- up right now.

stick with us. this is numbers surveillance. -- this is bloomberg surveillance. ♪ what if we live to 100. i don't want to outlive our money. i keep eating all these chia seeds. i could live to be 100. we work with empower, even if we do live to 100 we don't have to worry. eh, not worried. take control of your financial future to empower what's next.

when people come, they say they've tried lots of diets, nothing's worked take control of your financial future or they've lost the same 10, 20, 50 pounds over and over again. they need a real solution. i've always fought with 5-10 pounds all the time. eating all these different things and nothing's ever working. i've done the diets, all the diets. before golo, i was barely eating but the weight wasn't going anywhere. the secret to losing weight and keeping it off is managing insulin and glucose. golo takes a systematic approach to eating that focuses on optimizing insulin levels. we tackle the cause of weight gain, not just the symptom. when you have good metabolic health, weight loss is easy. i always thought it would be so difficult to lose weight, but with golo, it wasn't.

the weight just fell off. i have people come up to me all the time and ask me, "does it really work?" and all i have to say is, "here i am. it works." my advice for everyone is to go with golo. it will release your fat and it will release you.

>> inflation is slowing and by year from now, inflation will be back down where the central banks wanted to be. -- one it to be -- banks want it to be. >> the fed simply raising rates to a historically low level is

not going to be enough to get inflation under control. >> we are not expecting a ton more rate hikes from the fed but it does seem like one is likely. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramovitz. lisa: the market seem to be tough on even in a face of a hawkish ecb at hawkish federal reserve. this is number surveillance. -- this is bloomberg surveillance. john is on vacation. tom keene, we are looking -- you can't pronounce the viewer -- tom: it is something like that. lisa: it seems like this market wants to read that -- a couple of days of selloff led by stoxx and it wants to keep buying the dip? tom: the dip and what we had with annmarie hordern today earlier and all that is going on with mr. putin, it has not affected market -- markets.

i will make it a 67 on westech -- west texas intermediate but the market is resilient. lisa: i feel like people are saying we could have every existential worry in the book and we have any the past 24 months and we are sick of it. on the ground, it looks good but what about the earnings? have we built in expectations that are too high relative to what companies can deliver. tom: we will have to see on the earnings front. delta airlines flying away and fashion and getting it done along with the rest of his business class industry. lisa: can't beat expectations. there shares tanked so how much had been built into the agitations? i wonder if we will be on this question around hawkish -- christine lagarde coming out very hawkish and more hockessin a lot of people were expecting

and saying they will raise rates in july and their work is not done. this is a pressing pressure they cannot help but fight. will market stop responding? -- will market stop responding -- will markets stop responding? tom: what we see with the jobs report, i don't even know what jobs day is. we go to the bloomberg terminal for this because the entrance -- did you notice the interns are weaker this year than lack -- last year? i have four interns with me. lisa: we don't have concerns. we have one. tom: only two of them have air-conditioning. two of these kids are suffering without air conditioning. lisa: are you keeping slave labor? tom: it is outrageous. lisa: it is the first week in july and we get the june jobs report on that friday. i will get the exact date out

for you. i believe it is john -- july 9. tom: it is july 7. lisa: let's take a look at the markets and you are seeing a lift and a bit of a reprieve after yesterday's selloff that was led by the tech names you are seeing. a bit of a reprisal and if the s&p and less of again. euro strength, this is important. getting to the 110 level -- 1.10 level of the hawkish discussion from christine lagarde. tom: this is a fragility that has been off the radar with russia and with all that is going on with the economics finance and investment but here is the theme. euro is stronger and began his week. --the yen this week --is weak.

lisa: especially given the fact that the japanese economy has been a haven for many people who keep saying let's by japanese securities. i am watching yields grinding higher on the front end around the world and the yield curve getting more inverted particularly over in europe. tom: i will have to see. there is no other way to look at it. futures up three and the dow at -51. tom: the questions around the earnings --lisa: the questions around the earnings surprise and the question of its -- if this is going to be a pattern, -- joining us is cameron dawson. how much is that is on your radar, the earnings be the catalyst to the downside to the caution that people are worried about? cameron: even though we see dire economic forecasts, economists -- you don't see that in the earnings forecast. you see a big recovery in the back half of the year and a

bigger recovery into 2024 and 2025, driven by resilient economy and big margin expansion so that will be the key source of downside surprise if we don't see the earnings materialize. we are watching the margins closely because inflation has been good for margins. it is why we think we got to record margins in 2021 and 2022 so as inflation continues to moderate and pricing power a's, that could put down pressure on the margins. lisa: are you getting more or less cautious? cameron: we have been cautious in expressing it by remaining invested but staying in a quality and saying we don't wish to take big risk on cyclical economic sensitive parts of the market at the same time, not wanting to take risks with things that are more speculative and require the boost that you get from central banks easing policy to see their stock prices do well. what is interesting is that we have seen those stops leave this year and that is one of our

surprises is that you see the fed remain hawkish but you also see liquidity sensitive parts of the market leave the charge -- lead the charge might -- harder. tom: how do you respond to people that say i am scared stiff, i don't want to participate in the equity market? cameron: have a long-term perspective and a plan but at the end of the day, we have two things we need to avoid as financial survivors. we need to keep people from selling at the bottom and buying at the top. tom: one person went in and he was so angry, he went into magellan, fidelity magellan and he ordered a survey of who bought at the drop -- top at the bottom -- and the bottom and the percentages work stunning. cameron: one of the things, how we navigate this is by focusing on quality cycles.

the companies that go down less than they went up in the prior cycle and what that leads us to do is not necessarily chased huge rallies that we have seen in certain parts of the market this year and take a tortoise versus the hair of poor -- hair approach. we were probably get to the same place without having the biggest swings of volatility. you chased to the upside and see reversals to be downside. cameron: people --lisa: people are saying it is a recession delayed and not deterred completely. you talk about the sectors that did well this year even in face of rate hikes. when do you say the models are broken and this is something different at a time where this economy and these markets seem or resign to rate hikes than ever before? cameron: that his stake key -- that is the key point and this is the function of 10 plus years of quantitative easing that kept

long interest rates down and allowed people to term out their debts and told the power of monetary policy going forward because one of the things you have seen this year is that you are not seeing the impact of higher rates -- simply because they were able to term out debt and have long maturities. as you see weight -- rates y -- rise, people shrug. tom: we will continue but we want to bring you the news as it come from russia and i believe -- we lost the video moments ago. there was a short video of a stark larger room with five kremlin officials and a lonely mr. putin at a podium and the headline here from bloomberg. mr. putin says russia fully financed the wagner group. i don't know of siu will get that. we have to get that in translation but i would state

moments ago, a putin citing. lisa: who is he speaking to? several reports say he is speaking to military personnel but it raises mystery on what transpires over the weekend on what happened to the walker group. -- walker group. --wagner group. tom: i believe that it is a three pronged choice. none of them are pleasant. lisa: mark is -- instruct this off -- markets shrug this off. you have any thinking on that? cameron: markets probably will look in the other direction because one of the key things that has been bullish for markets is the moderation in oil prices and part of that is the function of russia selling so

much oil at discounted prices. if we start to see something that will impact russia's oil production or their ability to continue to sell, that would be the key upward impact on inflation and downward impact on markets. tom: where are you on a 60/40 reallocation here. it is meant year and i have to reallocate, do you believe in 60/40? cameron: we believe in 60/40 plus alternatives because they are fantastic opportunities outside of traditional asset classes where we see dislocations because of the turmoil of the past couple years or we are starting to allocate two things like venture selectively and private credit is a popular place to be what we are finding great opportunities. tom: thank you so much. be ready appreciate it this morning. read on the green. -- threat on the screen. a modest lift through the nasdaq. the nasdaq up 310 7%. the 10 year yield giving me

nothing. lisa: the nasdaq might be indicated up 3/10 of a percent. it was a selloff after a couple days a week there's an people were saying will this be the beginning of something longer? maybe today is people saying this was the debt --dip. tom: a little bit of strength in the ruble -- the dollar ruble and in the currency space, the euro 1.0 949. let's call it flat. lisa: when you talk about vladimir putin and the other intel we are getting, he is saying russia avoided a civil war and he said that he needed to act clearly and coherently in a difficult situation. is he rationalizing what he did to an audience of people who are saying are you creating two sets of standards where you will be

sent after years of cracking down? tom: i am not going there and the speculation -- the good news is on a tuesday morning in america, the speculation is less than idiocy of saturday evening. that is all i can give it. to speculate here, we need to see observable facetime to see what lukashenko says. it is -- is wagner group guy surfaced? lisa: there are reports that the jet fuses left for belarus -- the jet heat uses left for belarus. you talk about speculation, is felt like -- it felt like at eminent potential threat on sunday. the fact there is less speculation out is perhaps because they don't see the eminent threat. tom: that is what the markets says and watching oil maybe is a

global litmus paper and it is a touch weaker often dollars 24 -- off $1.24. it is not near recent lows and i am watching dollar-yen 1.43 and euro-yen a stunning 1.57. it is a most eventful day. coming up, economic data. lines of economic data. we need translation. stephen stanley, santander. good morning. ♪

>> couldn't facing the worst challenge on his career and his best friend on the -- putin facing the worst challenge of his career and his best friend on the public stage xi jinping offering no support.

a lot of people want to buy his oil for cheap. not a lot of people prepared to take any domestic risk to help him. tom: ian bremmer on fire yesterday. i said to summa last night at dinner and i said dr. bremmer was router -- was blue to her -- was brutal on the brutality on the wagner group. it was a breath of fresh air to have someone who have -- who had actual international stock -- chops to clear the air. lisa: this is someone who has been awarded criminal. the question now means what does this mean for vladimir putin. we heard he was saying russia financed the wagner group, which goes against what we were reading earlier, the wagner group financed himself. tom: thanks the -- to our team working tirelessly through saturday. web part perspective, it julie norman -- from our perspective,

julie norman with us today. it was quite something. someone said to me in international relations, where have you been most wrong and i didn't didn't -- get world war one wall -- wrong. i got october 4 of 1993 wrong. we are coming up on 30 years ago, with the boris yelton russian coup. there were military man going up what is called the white house in moscow with military damage from shelling and i got that completely wrong. terry haines nailed it. he joins us with pangaea policy on what we get wrong. what do we risk getting wrong with this uproar in russia? i was wrong on yelton stop what can i get wrong here on --i was so wrong on yeltzon.

what can i get wrong here on putin? terry: what you have is, you have prigozhin losing his nerve outside of moscow and you have a situation where there is no obvious alternative to putin and thirdly, and most of poorly, the west is not yet absorbing publicly what a bad situation it is to have the wagner group people end up in belarus, the same country that has tactical russian news -- nukes and borders, not only in the northern part of ukraine but has a western borden -- border with poland and a north-south border with two of the three baltic states -- states. i don't think by any means, we are done. tom: like october is one of the phrases the russians use for

1993, 147 people killed, 437 wounded and the 10 day conflict bordered on the worst thing in russia going back to landon --l enin. is this the equivalent? lisa: there were a lot of speculation and we are talking now about what belarus' role in this is. you mentioned the wagner group there potentially, and the leader in the nation represents a risk to ukraine. what are you looking for to understand the dynamic of belarus' role? terry: i am looking at what wagner group will be doing and when and where they will be doing it. back in the day, churchill described lenin's entry into petersburg as a plague -- and this might be another plague if

based --a wagner group in a bowler was is trying to figure out what pressure point it wants to hit, whether it be bordering on nato countries or running down to ukraine, that seems to be a new significant and potentially destabilizing threat will stop we have seen no evidence that that will happen -- threat. we have seen no evidence that that will happen but putin will use whatever he's got so wet he is proposing to get here is -- so what he is proposing to get here is a road military doing his will. this is a worst situation for the west then is understood. lisa: can you elaborate given the latest headlines that vladimir putin is saying that russia fully financed the wagner group. other people pushed back and said wagner group self financed

tickly with activities in africa. do you have more of a sense based on the rhetoric we have heard over the past couple days? terry: putin will say what he will say and part of my admission here from the top is everybody -- no offense to the u.s. and secretary blinken but everyone is saying things that are trying to put their thumb on the sale -- scale and say things that may push their own self interests. that should be recognized. second of all, to your point, what is happening wagner is -- what is happening is wagner has been financing put -- putin. putin would like to keep that funding source coming in in africa and elsewhere so what they are trying to do is put up your handle on --put a bigger handle on wagner.

did putin put some seed money on wagner years ago, maybe. tom: are we ready to have more american troops on the continent of europe? re: were -- are we prepared to go back to our youth? [laughter] terry: i think we will have to as part of the nato forces beefs up to some extent and that is one reason why i am looking belarus and the borders with the baltic states and with poland, these are not only natal error lies -- natal allies but these are areas where the u.s. and nato troops exist already. weather in lithuania, latvia, eastern poland, protecting what is called the salafi gap which is the polish lithuanian border.

putin may 1 two probe that. i have no evidence use -- to suggest he will and you have a road force with nothing better to do, watch out. tom: thank you so much. i missed this last night and lisa picked up on it but we have a detailed printout from morgan stanley on the zentner amendment. why do you read the paragraph? lisa: one person coming out and saying secretly thought that that was done in terms of rate hikes and now she says -- this is the key distinction and she talked about what change for her, the lower bar of the fed to raise rates was the testimony

that jay powell said -- had last week in front of congress, the fact he said it made sense to move rates higher but at a slower pace and that is something we have heard from others. tom: the back end of the note is surprising and this is the acuity that the team does at morgan stanley and the math is mysterious but all you need to know is on a court basis in core pce, they break 4% soon as -- soonish, like september. 3.9% q4 two q4. we are not prepared for that. tom: chromite --lisa: carl weinberg was talking about that. we heard this, they year-over-year comparisons make it easier to do that. if that happens, we're talking about -- are we talking about a soft landing scenario that people what office unacceptable? i don't know and we flopped on

such a degree. we will carry this conversation forward, jordan jackson joining us, 20 rodriguez of never being and one person who has interesting things to say. tom: one day, the cow casino world --the calvasina roach moonshot --world moonshot and then -- nasdaq up 3/10 of a percent. stay with us. this is bloomberg surveillance. ♪

the first time you made a sale online with godaddy was also the first time you heard of a town named dinosaur, colorado. we just got an order from dinosaur, colorado. start an easy to build, powerful website for free with a partner that always puts you first. start for free at godaddy.com

tom: wilbert surveillance on television -- bloomberg want helpdesk desk bloomberg surveillance on television and radio. -- bloomberg surveillance on television and radio. only mike mckee knows the math but we have to get off your on tuesday, housing data, we will talk to steve stanley. a brilliant note on your housing headaches. with economic data flooding in, mike mckee, head of all -- >> we have durable goods coming in significantly stronger. 1.7% and the forecast was for a 9/10 fall.

tom: that is boeing. >> that was expected to be flat and the -- the capital good orders coming in stronger than expected, 7/10 of a respect -- seven tens of 8% compared to 1/10 anticipated for that and shipments come in at 2/10. right now, i am looking for the revisions. i am wondering there probably is a market reaction to this given the fact that we have seen it, and a than anticipated and maybe it helps with the idea of a soft landing. tom: up bit of a yield response and 10-year yield and a little bit higher yield there and further curve and version off the this --disand version --di

sinversion. let's go forward to your work later this morning, this housing data is important? >> new homes disabled -- sales are only six -- 15% of overall homes sales but there are no homes for sale. i was in florida talking to real estate agent and there's nothing available and prices are rising on that side and offsetting some of the damage is done by the fed raising rates. the new sales, there is a backup. we know builders went into the apartment building business after the great financial crisis because nobody wanted to own homes and we are short on homes and there is big backlogs for the builders so we see comp -- contributions from new-home construction to the overall economy and we will watch that to see what we get. tom: it will stop here and for all you worldwide, and certainly

across america, stephen stanley is known to write very dense acute notes where santander us capital markets. he has held down -- outdone himself with the midyear review of the housing market. congratulations on this sukuk -- this superb note of clarity. new home sales were 10 and now they are 14% of the market. new-home sales are up 40%, is the size of the market in this crazy pandemic. it is unusual, right? stephen: it is. the genesis here is the back of the mortgage rates because if you own a home, you are sitting on a 3% mortgage and all the sudden, mortgage rates are at 7%, the bar to moving is much higher. if you don't have to move, you stay. tom: when does that break, what is the catalyst that santander

sees out there that will change the housing market mike mckee saw in florida? stephen: it will take time for people to get used to higher rates. we are starting to see that in terms of the new-home market. there was a period of time last year when people were stepping back and saying i want to buy a home because mortgage rates are too high and now people realizing that they be this is the new normal. to have this dynamic people who are locked in with a low mortgage, are less likely to move and that is to the benefit to the builder so it allows builders to rejigger their businesses and get inventories in lined and you are -- in line and you are seeing a paid up on the new-home side. in the second half of last year, housing activity was falling at a 25% annualized clip. all of a sudden in the first quarter, it was down 5% so still

negative only subtracting 2/10 from gdp. michael: the overall economy and i will look at this from the point of view other durable goods orders we got out now, has been driven by consumers. we have watched manufacturing pullback but this is a relatively strong report. interestingly enough, the drop in defense orders, because that is a huge rise last month, overall, it doesn't seem to be much outside of cars and boeing. what is the outlook for companies? if consumers are hanging in there, do they turn around and say maybe we better refill our stockpiles? stephen: what we have seen over the last 3-6 month has to been a breather on that front. this is a in equipment was -- business investment and equipment was strong in the early days of the pandemic. everyone thought it would be a big adjustment and it turned out to be brief and we saw strength through -- from 2021 into 2022

and the last -- last few quarters have been softer. we had a good number in april and another good number in may so it feels like maybe things are getting back on track. my favorite manufacturing indicator is the ism survey and he gives a lot of color on what is going on and that is interesting because what it has shown is there is division of opinion amongst manufacturers. half of them felt like we would get weak first quarter activity because people were adjusting inventories and getting back in the lot and the other half is worried about a persistent client. it feels like the first camp, there was some validity to what they were thinking if you look at the orders numbers coming back. michael: were you optimistic about gdp for the rest of the year? a lot of people we are thinking -- people are thinking we are

going to recession. stephen: if this like the consensus call for the economy for the last 18 months will be we will get a recession next quarter and the date keeps getting pushed back. the latest bloomberg monthly survey of economists got pushed back another quarter. tom: it is working out. [laughter] stephen: all along, i have been in the view the economy will be more resilient and it has and i think it will continue to do so. if you look at the gdp and components, it is interesting because we have areas of weakness and we talked about housing and business investment and equipment that at the same time, not only is the consumer strong, you have government -- good government spending because state and local government are spending their excess cash. you have a boom in construction and manufacturing facilities and part of it is the chips sector but more broadly than that so there is a lot of cross currents. tom: if uni were sitting in now.

--u and i were sitting in davos on a panel -- and she would say what is the technology overlay right now on the two america's right now, mike mckee has been brilliant about this. there is an america getting crushed and there is an american technology driven like a lot of the spanish economy. it is technology to the four -- fore, isn't it? stephen: the latest flavor is ai and the concern there is ai is reddened jobs for people who before, were on the right side of that divide so 20 years ago, it was all about using technology to become more efficient in terms of blue-collar labor and all of a sudden, the professionals are at risk. that will be interesting.

thinking broadly, this argument has been around as long as i have been doing this. the tech -- that technology would still jobs --steal jobs. they do take away jobs in some areas but they add jobs in other places and the unemployment rate is 3.5% so the economy is evolving and workers need to be dynamic and segue into different fields. the economy seems to create new opportunities. tom: where are we in september? we have a fit meeting -- we have a fed meeting and -- how do you perceive this work september 10? stephen: i would argue that i have no idea. tom: thank you. [laughter] stephen:stephen: just doing the math alone --michael: just doing the math alone, it would be hard

to get a recession mathematically and steve, i wonder, everybody talks about the possibility of soft landing, how would you define it and when would you declare it if you were the fed chairman? i go back to the vietnam war and senator aikman who said we should declare victory and go home. this jay powell get to declare victory? stephen: know and this is the problem with the analogy, the economy never really lands. coming into the year, this was the first question everyone would ask. that presumes we are playing a game with a specific end date. is the economy at recession at june 30 or not and if it is not, it is a soft landing. the economy doesn't land, it keeps going. if we see growth, i would say probably on the subpar side but well above zero. that is not a landing.

if that that has to keep tightening, the economy isn't likely to crack. tom: jonathan will -- miller, people are telling me we have rate disinflation? stephen: we are about to get a new reading on home prices because just like -- when it looked like home prices would fall, they rebounded and you are seeing a little bit on the same thing on the rent side where rent -- what we were expecting was more of a correction than a decline. it wasn't a bust. home prices and rents when so -- ups -- rents went up so much in the last two years, there was a presumption that they would come down and they came down for a few months and now it looks like they are rising. it is a testament to how strong the economy is and how liquid households are. it is a strong market. tom: steve stanley, thank you so

much with santander. what will you be doing at 9 a.m.? michael: i will be with your coanchor lisa abramowicz who is filling in for jon ferro. that sounds like russia. pressure taking russia to free russia from -- lisa filling in from john. stephen: we have not had a jonathan ferro siding -- sighting yet. what we have is a nice lift to the market. we say good morning. lisa abramowicz is getting ready for that unclog arrow -- for the 9:00 hour. i mispronounced it. thank you to the global audience were threatening -- for shredding out the ugly american -- you have been there, no

doubt. michael: want to talk about what we --tom: i want to talk about what we solve for adjustments from ellen zentner. do you anticipate lots of midyear adjustments from economists as we -- they get out from july and this is tempered meeting? michael: adjustments may come slowly but if you watch the data, it will we about -- it will be about, do the inflation numbers and job numbers come in as that that expect and i think the jobs numbers could be -- we get a big increase like we did last month with an -- unemployment come on raises questions on whether they want to tighten or not. they seem to want to but at this point, they are still -- still somewhat dated -- data -dependent. you are suggesting the numbers could come in -- tom: have a sentimental bias to the work of someone from yale

university and someone iconic, in american economics in what they did with that case-shiller index. it is a case-shiller index. it is an important data point, a flatness? michael: it will be something economists are watching because they want to see how home prices -- we new-home sales at 10:00 and that has a price component to it. tom: the economist bramo says she is riveted -- i am not. this is bloomberg. bloom -- good morning. ♪

>> i think it is going to be probably a softer landing in that camp. and the fed, its statement, while it did not increase rates, was relatively all caps because they added the potential of having one more 50 basis point increase later this year the

markets have not quite bought into that. tom: the right person at the right time and that must mean there's a conversation with david rubenstein. she is prodigious in knowledge of international hydrocarbons and this is exceptionally well-timed from rock creek, look for that conversation tonight. and more important given the up or -- the up or we see in russia. david rubenstein joins us. i got goosebumps and she is the perfect person to talk to. tell us what she brings to the table. david: she is an immigrant from iran. she started her own firm called rock creek which is now probably

the largest women-owned investment firm in the u.s. and certainly the largest women-owned firms by a woman who is an immigrant and imagine that $17 billion. she is involved with a lot of philanthropic up test activities as well -- philanthropic activities as well. the pbs found that -- foundation board and she is insightful about where the economy is going because he is investing $17 billion on a daily basis. she has good knowledge as well about the energy road because that was where she studied at oxford. and conversation after conversation over the years, -- just for the last 24 hours, we see -- saw laurence fink with the world economic forward, financing -- finessing the new esc message --esg message.

what were her thoughts on climate change and the recalibration of esg? david: her view is that the energy transition is underway and it is not going to be happening overnight. with esg, she is a big believer of it and is focused on it. i think it is trying to put your finger in a dike. many people are not supportive of the politics of esg and you are seeing in europe a real concern about it and i need to be sensitive about environmental concerns and she reflects that because he is a global citizen and lived in many different places. charlie: --tom: she is in washington. it is cut roof -- cutthroat. what is the distinction of rock creek and -- as they keep trying

to obtain outstanding women employees and managers? stephen: -- david: there aren't that many investment firms with that high of a percentage of that size and it is a large firm at this point. managing $17 billion. it is a struggle to be an immigrant and to be a woman trying to build a firm like that. i have known her for a while and she worked at carlisle and before she started her own independent firm and i could say that she is known to many people around the world for being very smart and very articulate and very conscious about the importance of esg. i should note for those who would that recognize last name, her husband is michael beschloss. tom: he is not only a distinguished historian but her husband has cap twitter saying -- has kept twitter saying -- same --sane.

i look at where we are right now and i want to speak to you with your public service to the nation and the carter administration but almost a nation starting off the recent nbc poll for some form of middleground, are moderate politics from both parties. how did you receive that the moderate voice and what one would call a silent america, how do they find their voice in this crazy presidential campaign to come both republican and democrat? david: it is unfair and difficult question to answer. politician typically pays your money from the far left and far right and it is difficult to raise money saying i will be right down the middle and balance the left and the right and come up with a good for my said everyone should be leased with. that doesn't raise a lot of money and as we know, money is

important and people are spending their time raising money in washington dc so the moderate voice is difficult to prevail. hopefully, we will have more moderate voices and last night, i interviewed somebody that some not say is moderate but -- i interviewed liz cheney. clearly, people on the right side of the spectrum say -- would say she is not moderate and people on the left side would say she is conservative and now she is doing public service things but whatever you think of her, finding people on the middle that people on the left and right can agree on is difficult and it is the biggest challenge we have in our presidential campaign, how do you get your head are up -- above water and get attention unless you get nothing done on the far right on -- or far left? tom: i will suggest and i deferred to you but ronald reagan codified this process. there is no question ronald reagan was the one, as a fdr

democrat in his childhood, came over to the republicans and grabbed the right and moved to the center. is that process dead? david: he was seen as being one of the far right, far more on the right that his competitor but the far right became the center and today, ronald reagan would not be seen on the far right and donald trump might be seen on the far right but not ronald reagan. ronald reagan had a way to the -- communicate that was great. he was called the great communicator for a good reason and even though i was not like -- his political supporter, i like to quote him and my favorite quote is "the most dangerous words from the -- of the english-language are, i am from the federal government and i'm here to help you." tom: let's bring it back to hydrocarbon. what is her view of a barrel of

oil on one year or a rock creek three years? david: if you ask as ceo of energy -- no one can really know. at the moment, given the uncertainties in russia, i suspect oil will drift all for a a while and as the sally's -- for a while and as the saudis -- i do think you will see it drift off from the high 60's to the low 70's. tom: thank you for the generous time. david ruth side -- david ruth side -- david rubenstein of the carlyle group. also on a wonderful digital platform and you to -- youtube, we are really sprucing that up and we are happy on that headway we are making.

it has been an extraordinary day. with the ellen zentner call on a rate rise on the july meeting and over to all we have seen from russia and in some other little drafts. with putin's speech this morning, it was six minutes, the small windows that someone like maria taddeo has to interpret where we are on a tuesday afternoon, i will call at 4:00 p.m. in moscow. and over to belarus and ukraine as well and we will see how that plays out into the evening as best we can. what you need to know, economic data coming up and we like the data that we saw here at 8:30 with michael mckee. nasdaq 100 up 4/10 of 1%. the deals are a mess. curve inversions improve, less

inverted over the last 24 hours. i will call that 95 basis points on the two stents spread --twos tens spread. stephen stanley is known from stent -- santander. we protect the copyright of our guests but it is a tour de force on the housing economics ownership and rights we have the summary from stephen stanley is it seems to be a brighter horizon. can you imagine that with a mortgage rate of 7.50? stephen stanley up sent has her -- stephen stanley of santander, housing market, very brilliant. for david rubenstein, west texas 68. good morning.

♪ ing and she would just walk right past them. she didn't know they were talking to her. i just could not hear. i was hesitant to get the hearing aids because of my short hair. but nobody even sees them. our nearly invisible hearing aids are just one reason we've been the brand leader for over 75 years. when i finally could hear for the first time, i started crying. i could hear everything. call 1-800-miracle and schedule your free hearing evaluation today. and your store was also the first time you realized... well, we can do anything. cheesecake cookies? the chookie! manage all your sales from one place with a partner that always puts you first. (we did it) start today at godaddy.com we moved out of the city so our little sophie could appreciate nature. (we did it) but then he got us t-mobile home internet. i was just trying to improve our signal, so some of the trees had to go. i might've taken it a step too far. (chainsaw revs) (tree crashes)

(chainsaw continues) (daughter screams) let's pretend for a second that you didn't let down your entire family. what would that reality look like? well i guess i would've gotten us xfinity... and we'd have a better view. do you need mulch? what, we have a ton of mulch.

>> i'm lisa abramowicz. we see a more constructive tone after yesterday's 1.2% selloff in the nasdaq. countdown to the open starts now. >> everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trading, this is "bloomberg the open," with jonathan ferro. ♪ lisa: coming up, all eyes on portugal as central bankers meet in sintra. the ecb ramping up its hawkish tone after big tech's biggest today some since march. climbing the wall of worry. >>