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shery: you are watching daybreak asia coming live from new york, sydney and hong kong. anabelle: where counting down to asia's major market opens. haidi: the top stories, asian stocks are said to open higher after strong equity data fuels a rally. investors are waiting on numbers of profits. ubs plans to ask more than half of credit suisse's workforce. plus, chile tops that markets this year. we will speak live this hour with the finance minister. shery: check at how u.s. trading futures are trading -- u.s. teachers are trading. really big pressure when it comes to tech futures perhaps on the reports we saw of new restrictions on exports of ai

chips to china. that not boding well with investors but in the new york session we had the rebound in the tech stocks today. especially with data showing u.s. consumer confidence remaining strong, u.s. home sales coming in strong. we had the 10 year yields rally. yields across-the-board rally. the 10 year yield above the 370 level. when it came to the oil market, we saw a of pressure. we are seeing a bit of a rebound in the asian session, over concerns of seeing more tightening and more global central banks remaining hawkish given the strong data, we may see challenges for growth. anabelle: it was an interesting session, because the high yields, as expectations are around the fed. the rally we had in big tech. after hours you were mentioning the lines in the story coming out of the wall street journal, possibly more curves on the way for chip makers in the u.s.. an export to china.

no one emphasizes that more than nvidia. this is a company headquartered in the u.s., founded by a man from taiwan. it has a huge market share in china and controls 80% of the market for ai chips. it is the stock reacting. we are seeing it down nearly 3% in after hours. that is something that will be casting a shadow over the asian trading session. let's take a look at futures. there are those heavy tech concentrated benchmarks. japan, korea, in focus. we see futures looking to gains. let's talk about the moves in the japanese yen. there is a bit of strength coming back into it. we have been holding at that 144 level, after what we can through from the ecb. and the expectations around the fed. the boj governor at the forum later today, but the top currency chief in japan, crossing the terminal, saying he

will -- they will respond to excessive fx moves. some jawboning coming through, no concrete actions just yet. traders are saying you have to get to 145. that is a level to watch for more forceful intervention. shery: especially since we saw 146 last year leading for the first time since the 1990's. let's talk about the banking industry. bloomberg has learned that ubs is planning to cut more than half of credit suisse's 45,000 strong workforce. su keenan has the details. sources are telling us the investment bank operations in london and parts of asia could suffer. su: tough news, not unexpected but the extent of these cuts now starting to hit home. bankers, traders and support staff as shery mentioned, london, new york, parts of asia are expected to bear the brunt of the cuts. almost all activities are at

risk, including the sources. the job cuts are said to begin in july with two more rounds in the foul, september -- in the fall, september and october. credit suisse trading and the investment bank are to be the hardest hit according to people close to the matter. all of this is a result of ubs's emergency rescue of the swiss bank three months ago in a government broker-deal. the job cuts were expected. the full amount was not clear until now. ubs combined workforce jumped to 120,000 as the deal closed. the bank aims to save some 6 billion in staffed cost -- staff cost in the coming years, through this action. haidi: ubs cuts are died -- tied to the job emergency. for the cuts are across the banking sector and it is a huge the. su: cutting costs is the name of

the game. the cuts are credit suisse is adding to a dismal year for financial industry employees. credit suisse saw it coming. many of its top investment bankers, the dealmakers, the top traders, had already got jobs. they were even recruited away, poached, or sod out big jobs -- sought out big jobs even though ubs managed to retain many of them. for those that goldman, bank of america, stanley and citi are even in the process of imposing cuts. the bankers entered the workforce and will be seeking jobs at a time when there are so many others out there. again, all of this is coming as investment banking and deals will slow down and recession fears rise. as for ubs, it plans to reduce the total combined headcount by 30% or 25,000 people according to the sources spot -- let

bloomberg has been talking to -- that bloomberg has been talking to. haidi: an unexpectedly strong weaning -- reading in the u.s., reinforcing bets that the fed will hike rates. kathleen hays is here. we saw three key sectors picking up steam. how saw -- strong is this a signal for the fed? kathleen: they cannot be done yet. we can only assumes. that is what jay powell signaled in the last meeting in june, that they were pausing. but they would probably do a couple of more hikes. this seems to put an exclamation point on that. if you start with new home sales they came in stronger-than-expected. for the third month in a row, the past pace since, let me see, it's third month in a row that they have done it. but, as you can see, they hit bottom. if you're not confident about the economy, if you're not

confident about the prospects of keeping your job or getting a better one, why would you buy a new home, particularly with mortgage rates so high? speaking of consumer confidence, up more than seven points, 109.7. what you can tell is that it is not that it is soaring so much, it has a long way to go, back to pre-pandemic levels, but it is on the way up. present conditions, that is one of the two main indexes, up 6.5 points, to 155.3, 46.8, that is the question asked in the survey. we've had strong jobs report. that supports that view that the labor market is strong. up for the second month in a row. they're willing to invest money. over at morgan stanley, the chief u.s. economist, in a report today got on board with yes there will be a july hike. the fed has more to do. shery: let's turn to europe. we had the ecb annual conference.

the hawks are singing loud and clear at this point. is a july rate hike a done deal? kathleen: unless something happens. that is what the president of the european central bank said, leading the way for other hawks to chime in. she said you cannot declare that you have reached the peak in rates, there will probably be a july hike in rates will globally say higher for longer. let's listen. >> we need to bring rates into sufficiently restrictive territory to block in our policy tightening. we need to communicate clearly that we will stay at those levels for as long as necessary. this will ensure that hiking rates does not elicit expectations, after two rapid policy reversals and will allow the full impact of our work past actions to materialize. >> we have sylvania's central bank president talking today. he thinks more persistent inflation that stays high will

mean more hikes. latvia's central bank president chiming in as well, markets are to optimistic about inflation coming down. there could be a hike in july is what he said. i have to throw in, while all this is happening, the prime minister of italy has put her in premature on the person to be the next head of italy central bank. he is five be a -- he is considered to be more dovish. there is one more voice saying, two deputy prime ministers calling east -- tightening dangerous. there are other government officials aware of the fed trying to tighten. the ecb and their peers have to continue hiking rates. it is a broad theme and one a lot of central banks will be talking about in portugal, the ecb's big annual conference. shery: kathleen hays there. coming up, a chilean finance

minister joins us to discuss the economic outlook and tax reform plans. hear why ubs is bullish on chinese equities and ai, more on their mortgage strategy next. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> it is unlikely that in the

near future the central bank will be able to say with cool -- confidence that the rates have been reached. >> if inflation turns out to be more persistent than at the moment in terms of interest rates and other fields. >> we will do what is necessary for inflation to come down to our target of 2%. stagflation is not a good choice to have read >> we should not include the possibility. but we may hike in september. >> some countries especially in the u.s., they were expecting three rate cuts this year for u.s. fed policy, and they have adjusted. >> the momentum being stable in the u.s. and europe at around 5% on a yearly basis, we need to see that coming down. >> markets have been optimistic. i suspect they are still somewhat optimistic about the path for interest rates. >> officials discussing inflation and interest rates at the ecb form in portugal.

let's talk about market strategy. our next guest prefers foundational tech themes for ai, cybersecurity as well as favoring chinese -- equities, let's speak with xi qiao the managing director at ubs. always great to have you with us. those two bang calls -- those two calls are interesting. we have seen the pullback when it comes to the popular ai trade, albeit some momentum overnight, where are you finding value and opportunity given how crowded this space is now? >> that's a great question. tech had an awesome run. a lot of it was unexpected because of the uncertainty in markets and where rates are headed this year. i think investors are looking beyond the short-term interest rates and looking at what is going to be -- what will be the future.

with a lot of enthusiasm in ai, particularly as you have seen these tech stocks traded a lot this year and a cybersecurity and big data. these are some of the areas that we favor. i think any technology foundation companies in these areas we are providing a platform and they will do well in the next few years. and for longer term. in the short-term, i think a lot of investors are looking beyond the volatility. haidi: are you looking beyond the short-term when it comes to how cloudy the china economic outlook looks like. or you constructive on chinese equities when it feels like the trade cannot get momentum? >> right, chinese equities they have lagged all year in growth, and also mainly on a lot of the

u.s. geopolitical tensions in the first half. it is such a huge economy to miss. u.s. valuations are pretty stretched. we are looking beyond the u.s.. and asia is one of our most preferred strategies. within asia, china dominates. we open the second half, we were expecting -- expecting stronger earnings. hopefully for more geopolitical clarity. that will hopefully, for a better recovery, and lift up some of the stocks and chinese equities, and their surrounding economies surrounding china as well. shery: it has been interesting to note, a report saying that we have seen a decoupling from chinese financial assets with the rest of emerging markets given the recovery has not been as strong as expected. where to ems go from here in the

broader space? >> that is a great point. ems are one of our preferred areas. many of the economies, southeast asia, korea and he of the economy surrounding asia, that is not a developed nation, these economies are going to have much better valuations than the u.s. right now. as we come out of this pandemic and as we move forward, especially with how much investors like technology right now, a lot of these em companies, not just em companies, but internet companies have a lot of opportunity for growth. trying to stay involved in the global markets, the yen is also one of our preferred markets to go into. -- em's is also one of our preferred markets to go into. shery: also the potential that

they may be cutting rates sooner than advanced economies but it is not just them. we are seeing the case with the pboc saying on the easier monetary path. how to -- not to mention the bank of japan. are there any opportunities where you see rate differentials making sense not only in ems but broader advanced economies? >> absolutely. rates are still hard to predict. but we are on a path of higher rates for longer our fed has been pretty hawkish in the last couple of weeks, especially with -- we are still far from our inflation targets. we are expecting another to quarter-point hikes. a lot of that will get priced into the market. investors are looking beyond where rates are in trying to invest more for longer term. shery: dollar trajectory? >> in the u.s. dollar of course.

we absolutely think there are better currencies, japanese yen, the swiss franc, there's a lot of other currencies, if you're looking for currencies. the dollar is going to be -- is one of the areas that will weaken. shery: good to have you with us. financial advisor and managing director at ubs. you can get a round up of all the stories in today's edition of daybreak on dayb . you can customize your settings so you only get the news on the industries and assets you care about. this is bloomberg. ♪ he snores like an angry rhino. you've never heard an angry rhino. baby i hear one every night... every night. okay. i'll work on that. the queen sleep number 360 c2 smart bed is now only $899.

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haidi: taking a look at the top stories in the world, the leader of the wagner mercenary group on an agreement with putin. the agreement says that he will not be prosecuted. putin has thing to the army and security forces for their support in their meetings, saying they prevented a civil war. pakistan is taking decisive steps to push through economic reforms, it is assigned an agreement may be near the bailout programs such expire this week. the imf mission chief says authorities are bringing policies more in line with the economic reform program supported by the fund. nvidia and admd are -- amd are falling, as biden is considering yield curves. we are seeing the downside as

they say the department could stop chip production without a license as soon as next month. washington is -- as concerns rise over the power of the technology in the hands of rivals. smoke from canadian wildfires that obscured skies in new york, started on wednesday. the governor has warned that air quality could reach unhealthy levels in certain areas and smoke and haze will affect the whole state. this comes after new york city and the northeast experienced one of the worst air quality is in the world, when smoke from quebec's forest fires flew south. shery: the imf says financial markets are overly optimistic about the path of central bank rates with more to be done, to bring down core inflation. the deputy management director spoke to us at the ecb forum in sentra. >> core inflation has eased, it

is still persistently high. in this environment, our advice is that central banks will need to stay the course. in the case of the ecb that may mean more continue tightening. and to stay on hold to make sure your confident that inflation is coming back down. that could come along with more weakness in labor markets than what we have seen so far and more weakness in the economy in general. that is what is needed to bring inflation down. >> do you worry about the markets? there seems to be advice and the markets that inflation is coming down and central banks will be ready to not hike as much as they will. is there a danger that the market is mispricing something that will create an event? >> the markets have been off since the start of this year. if you look at expectations of the policy rate, in some countries, especially the u.s. they were expecting three rate cuts for u.s. fed policy. they have adjusted. they have come back to

recognizing that we are here for longer than what was expected. i think markets have been very optimistic and i suspect they are still somewhat optimistic. >> what do they most misunderstand? the fact that interest rates have to remain higher for longer which resting the guard laid out beautifully? or they have to rise higher than expected? >> it is how long they're going to stay. that is the part where there is a disconnect between the markets and what central banks are signaling. so far it is markets that have had to correct two central bank paths. i still think they are off on the duration for which they will have to keep rates high. >> with the path forward for growth? -- what is the path forward for growth? >> we are seeing growth weakening and slowing activity at this point. we need to bring inflation down to have sustainable growth which

is why it is important to do this. since it is not just a demand phenomenon we have had supply disruptions correct themselves. we've had energy prices come down. both factors are bringing inflation down without needing to much of a hit to the economy. we have to wait and see. we are only just seeing the effects of monetary policy. shery: the imf deputy speaking there. take a look at emerging-market currencies. we have seen a first gain in seven sessions. incredible pressure on the space, but in today's session we had the chilean pesto gaining and leading, posting their biggest gain in months. a lot of optimism about stimulus measures coming from china about boosting prices of commodities such as copper. let's bring in sheila'-- chile's finance minister to speak about the broader chilean economy and

where chile is headed. mr. are sell it is great to have you on bloomberg television. we know you're in new york you are having a busy day meeting with investors. thank you for joining us. give us a sense of the mood you are feeling. you have been to these so many times annually. what has changed in investor sentiment about your country? >> it is great to talk to you again. i think the last time we spoke it was a year ago. and the main changes that we see right now are that investors are less concerned about the immediate juncture, the chilean economy is completing a very substantial adjustment. they're cutting inflation, and also rebalancing the economy. now investors are putting their

attention much more on medium to longer-term issues. shery: perhaps some of the commodities and investments. i mentioned, copper but huge in lithium as well. there has been a bit of concern about the national strategy from the government. what do you say to that criticism that a state led initiative could slow down and chile could lose competitive edge in this industry? >> what i would say is that at least in mining, usually there is a larger role for governments, regulators granting concessions or being partners. in our case, what we're defining is a strategy where projects, are joined through ventures with the government, particularly

with the corporate state company. as we all know it is a leading company in the world. and that would allow it to combine. on the one hand, the commodity of governments to deal and to keep track of environmental, social issues and to provide the private sector with capital. technology will be very orton in the development -- important in the development of this industry. water is very scarce in that part of the world. new projects are expected to be integrated. technologies will improve the profitability and productivity. shery: let's talk about the sustainability issues. we heard chile is tapping

international debt markets for the first time this year, including swapping up old bonds for the new sustainable links securities. what is the end goal? do you have a target, do you want to make everything esg linked, what does it mean why this strategy is -- and not a step down option? >> in terms of our international term, it is a 60% in a greener sustainability linked bonds. this is our second issuance after a couple of years ago. what we are seeking is is the margin on rates for considering the demand. on the other hand, also to keep a very strong commitment from

the current and future administrations for environmental sustainability. shery: let's talk a bit more about the long-term strategies for the government. he talked about presenting the tax reform proposals in chile in the next few weeks. we heard reports that this could be delayed until next year. how confident are you that you will have the backing of congress? do you have a backup plan? >> yes. we have a much stronger strategy this time. we are talking about a government that includes not only taxation but also spending. the priority is also improving upon fiscal efficiency and fostering growth. that brings different dimensions

to the fiscal space, together, to address issues that are relevant for the country area this is not just an issue for the government. it is improving pensions, health services and security, they are things that are at the very top of priorities for chilean citizens. haidi: i have to ask you as a former central bank governor for chile what do you make of the signals we are getting from monetary authorities that we may see rate cuts in july. and we are even seeing board members in the last meeting voting for 50 basis point cut. now, would you say that is the appropriate pace going forward? >> yes. first of all it is important to be aware that chile started tightening monetary policy much earlier than other countries. chile started in june 2021, nine months before the federal

reserve. it is likely that they will turn around the monetary policy earlier than other countries as well. given that the economy has undergone very substantial adjustment. byy bringing down a consumption that was very strong in 2021 and led to an overheating of the economy. the economy is -- the security is prepared, to loosening monetary policy. the central bank signaled that it might start as early as next month. shery: would you say 50 basis points is an appropriate reduction? >> i figure for the central bank, we are respectful of the economy of the central bank. but, this kind of voting is very common. when the monetary policy is

turning around and different members of the board have their own assessments for how fast they can go. shery: minister mario mar -- mario marcel, thank you so much for your time today while he is -- you are speaking to investors in new york. let's see how the broader markets are trading. anabelle: stick with the central bank theme, of course the focus in the session so far has been on the moves in the japanese yen. taking a look at this chart that weakness that we are continuing to see in the currency, sliding back to the 145 level. what is interesting, this chart issuing the one-month implied volatility, that has been diversion away from the weakness -- diverging away from the weakness. it tells us that traders are not too concerned about the weakness

we have seen in the young, even though we had the likes of the top currency chief in japan saying they would react appropriately to respond to any aggressive one-sided move in the currency. again traders are not too concerned about this, part of it comes down to the perception that the fed is nearing the end of its tightening program. the benefits of a weak yen because it will boost growth and help the boj achieve its inflation goals. the yen, a little bit firmer up those candle lines for close to the 144 level. let's change on. the other focus is the wall street session. we have the same futures turning negative. we'll be tracking headlines that came through from wall street journal, particularly with the chip makers. japan and korea opening up in the next top of the hour. the biden administration could be weighing potential curves on

ship exports to china. we are seeing the japanese futures still high but off those levels we had close to the contract sharing. shery: let's turn to the opening speech we heard from the chinese premier, using that at the world economic forum telling leaders that they and not there government should take the lead. our chief north asia correspondent, stephen engle joins us. de-risking has become part of the lexicon for diplomats around the world. stephen: i think so. olaf scholz and the germans started using that term ahead of the g7 we started to hear other nations including the u.s. is to use that term as well. joe biden has said we are not decoupling from china we are simply de-risking. that is part of janet yellen the treasurer of secretaries

negative and diversify supply chains. relying simply on china china and li qiang giving his first major speech to the international business community at the summer davos. he said it is a false proposition. de-risking in how the united states -- how western powers have phrased it is essentially the same as decoupling. he told the european executives that he met here as well as those he met on his foreign trip to germany and france last week. essentially, de-risking as well are not mutually exclusive. he was making an appeal to business leaders that they don't have to follow what governments are doing. china has already accused the united states of using diplomatic coercion to get other

nations on board with what they have been doing. that is export controls with chip equipment making as well as what is imminent from the white house and that is an executive order that would limit u.s. investment into china for artificial intelligence, quantum computing and advanced semiconductors. the plea yesterday was to the business community to essentially assess the risk of themselves. he said elements -- governments and relevant organizations should not overreach themselves and turn their concept into an ideological tool. china and xi jinping over the last few years have used similar terminology. not de-risking, but terms like dual circulation and self reliance. again semantics. both sides if you want to call it that. of the global economy between the east and west. both have been using similar accusations.

the one main takeaway as well from the speech is his assessment of the chinese economy, saying the current second-quarter will surpass the first quarter. there is some momentum and he said there will be more practical, effective measures to expand domestic demand. that gave a slight boost to metals like copper yesterday. the big question is where and when, and how much stimulus will come down the pike. we had the greater china economist with morgan stanley on yesterday. he believes there will be closed door meetings chaired by the premier on friday where they will discuss and potentially announce new stimulus measures for the chinese economy. haidi: our chief north asia correspondent. it is the withholding of more meaningful stimulus creating the weakness across equities, but also the yuan as well. we will bring you more exclusive interviews at the driving forces

of the economy. catch them at these times. speaking of the chinese currency, it will be interesting to see any kind of reaction if we get the stimulus but through. the yuan has been one of the favorite ways to play the economic weakness and the lack of stimulus we see after the week economic recovery. we have seen the yuan down 5%. it's critically at the lowest in more than two years against the basket of major trading currencies. all of this is coming with pretty low volatility. we have seen a fall in the key basket every week since late april. it's a record losing streak. watching a bit of strength in the dollar. the bloomberg dollar index up by a marginal amount. also, we are watching yen intervention, at least when it comes to verbal intervention. we are seeing the dollar-yen trading softer after the early round of verbal intervention from japan's -- from japan.

authorities are trying to catch traders earlier, with the messaging that if you are short in the yen, it's a one-way strategy. japan is saying they are monitoring fx, with a high sense of urgency. perhaps that puts a lid when it comes to yen weakness. and of course, when it comes to what we are watching at the moment when it comes to the biggest stories of the day is, we have more certainty and finality as to these job cuts for credit suisse, impacting the investment banking and deals divisions, in the fallout across asia as well. as this ties into what we saw at the emergency takeover, this is unsurprising that we are seeing the cut of over half credit suisse workforce, that they will be rolled out in july. there will be two more rounds in the fall as well. it is the trading and investment bank that will be hit the hardest.

half of the 45,000 strong workforce will go starting next month. it's also interesting that this takes place at a time when it is not just this kind of idiosyncratic story, globally we are seeing this tightening happening. shery: we are continuing to watch those bank jobs with ubs now saying, to two people familiar with the matter that it intends to ultimately reduce a total combined headcount by about 30% or 35,000 people. this, as you say is coming on the back of other announcements from blackrock cutting its staff after shifting its budget to support critical priorities. that will affect less than 1% of staff. we have heard perhaps from sources that j.p. morgan could be cutting about 40 investment bankers in north america. this, with the slowdown in dealmaking. haidi: it seems to be a systemic

situation across the board and across regions. we continue to watch for that, given these announcements for various banks are becoming daily. much more to come on daybreak asia. this is bloomberg. ♪ hones for financial insights from merrill. is he hailing a ride to the concert hall? no. he's making sure his portfolio and retirement plans work in harmony. they want to adopt a child and build a new home. so they're talking numbers with their merrill adviser. she's not researching her next role. she's learning how to handle market ups and downs without the drama. personalized advice so impressive your money never stops working for you with merrill. a bank of america company.

haidi: rio tinto is planning to

build its own batteries in melbourne as that experience minutes -- experiments with clean air technology. is this a precursor to manufacturing your own batteries? >> it will be an exciting story if it was. but they are explicit that it will not need -- lead to commercial battery manufacturing. it will be a lab explore how to use lithium and other critical minerals, how they perform in lab conditions and help them understand what their lithium customers want. they will test the batteries and find real world applications. this lab should be complete and producing its first batteries in november. shery: tell us a bit about rio tinto. it does not produce any lithium, but that is about the change. what can we see in terms of a strategic change of the company? paul: that is the rub, producing or creating a lab that produces batteries. no lithium yet. but the key word is yet. rio tinto is exploring the area.

they have a project in argentina, they spent $850 million on developing. they are looking to develop a mine in serbia, which will become the largest once complete. it's full of small and medium sized lames -- names. you see, terry around consolidation in the space especially when you consider benchmark mineral intelligence, you see the mineral market moving to under supply at the end of the decade. another $51 billion of investment globally will be needed to make future demand. shery: that is paul allen. more ahead on the outlook for the battery materials when we speak exclusively to our eurasian -- the eurasian resources group ceo. asean's energy transition is in focus in episode two of new

direction series. bloomberg speaks to key players about the regions road to renewables and electrification. >> it is the fourth-largest consumer of energy, over the last 20 years. it has doubled in size. it has tripled its energy consumption. >> coal-fired power plants are the usual scenario, if nothing has been changed. >> it is not only about scaling up renewables, but also about methodically facing out -- phasing out coal. >> i want to touch upon electric revision of coal. the picture is different in southeast asia. >> the efficiency on that is tremendously higher. we're talking about five times more efficient. >> whether it is energy transition, energy security, or trying to address climate change, we are trying to solve a crisis for humanity. >> never underestimate technology. we could get to 100% has zero,

but a lot depends on the human engineered a -- human ingenuity. shery: that episode of the new directions air is at these times wednesday evenings. more to come on daybreak asia. this is bloomberg. ♪

haidi: take a look at bitcoin, we are near a one year high in terms of this recovery rally, hovering around the level is fidelity, ready for filing a spot in the exchange traded fund for bitcoin. we're seeing that trending up, nearing the 52 week high of just over 31,400. this rally coming in as we expect it imminently, according to a report of a crypto trade publication. it will come as soon as tuesday. a genuine spot etf would potentially open the spot to flows of new capital that would drive a trickle-down effect in terms of volumes and interest. this would be fidelity's second attempt out of a bitcoin etf. the first one had been denied by the sec in 2021.

shery: we're also on yen watch. the japanese currency is a touch stronger after the japan chief currency official said authorities will respond appropriately for moves in the foreign exchange market. let's bring in bloomberg's economy editor for korea and japan. really interesting, he's staying on for another year as a currency chief. he was behind that $65 billion intervention last year, when the yen was getting close to 146, is that the line in the sand? >> well, japanese officials are reluctant to talk about lines in the sand. they like to talk about excessive moves, one-sided moves, speculative moves. however, if you listen to analysts, we have 1, 4, 5 mentioned as a possible

threshold. most people are looking at 150 as a moment where japanese officials can get very uncomfortable. if you look at the levels last year, we were approaching 146 when we had the intervention in september. we were approaching 152 in october. i think you should look out for two things, before you really worry about intervention. one, we needj -- we need just one grade up from the language from officials like canada. we need to be prepared to take bold action on speculative moves. that kind of level of verbal warning, plus you need more movement, more volatility on the markets, a move of more than two yen of the dollar-yen within 24 hours to show that you've got an excessive or speculative move. the officials need that to be able to back up and justify

stepping into markets. haidi: how does the mood in japan over the weekend compared to this time last year? >> last year we had this sense of panic of impending doing with the bottom fallout of the yen? we get to the levels of 160 or lower? this year, there is less sense of the panic. it is not a comfort zone but there is a little less fear and concern about these levels. the weekend helps japan's global firms we are seeing stocks to 33 your highs. investors are seeing something positive. we have a different factor this year that we did not have last year. because we have all of those pandemic restrictions lifted, we have tourists back in japan.

we have this surge of inbound traffic which is helping the economy. although segments of the economy that were not benefiting from the week yen last year, now they are seeing some help from the weaker yen. we saw that in the gdp numbers in the first quarter, just from inbound tourism. also, i think another factor to consider is we're are getting closer to the end of the rate hiking cycle globally. people are feeling more comfortable that, yes the yen could get weaker. but it will not spiral out of control, like the fears were last year. shery: bloomberg's economy and government editor, paul jackson. haidi: these are the stocks we are watching when trade opens in korea. the wall street journal has been reporting that the u.s. is considering new curves on ai chip exports to china.

we will be watching samsung, given that we have seen downside in the likes of amd and nvidia. where watching asian energy suppliers, their struggling to shake off fears that there are higher demands of crude in light of the better data from the u.s., feeling expectations of more tightening from the fed. coming up, bnp para bout explains why they are more -- bnp paribas explains why they are expecting. market opens in sydney, seoul and tokyo, next. this is bloomberg. ♪

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shery: we are counting down to asia's major market open after a risk on rally the new york session we have strong economic data including confidence in home sales but the key question is what it means for the federal reserve and other central banks. haidi: that's just it. it does it fuel more expectations that the fed is not done tightening yet? does it re-elevate the hard landing risks? let's get over to bell. annabelle: more talking from japan's top currency chief this morning. it is the start of trading for treasuries on the u.s. session was the focus we had on the signals of u.s. economic

strength and consumer confidence. rising to the highest level since early 2022. what does it mean for the fed is the need for further tightening into the year and when we saw yield move higher off of that and the start of cash treasuries this morning looking steady. the focus was the yield differential between the boj and fed. the yen firmed up slightly after comments in the last hour. essentially they said the government will respond to any sort of excessive moves in fx markets and the yen moving further off that and the boj governor will speak at the central forum taking place in portugal on wednesday. the nikkei 225 moving to the upside following what happened in the u.s. session tuesday and that move again back into the eye -- vais stocks and big jumps

in the ai names. looking at the open for korea is what happened after hours because a wall street journal report in the last few hours essentially said the biden administration could be weighing more restrictions on ship exports for ai to china and that would have big ramifications for nvidia, and we are tracking chipmakers in this part of the world even though we see the cause stack at the start of trade outpacing the border gains we had for the kospi in both indexes looking higher and also the korean won sitting at the key psychological 1300 level. we had been whizzing past it now firming up somewhat in the session with consumer confidence something else we are tracking in korea today because we saw sentiment rise above the 100 mark for the first time in more than a year so that indicates that optimists in korea are starting to outweigh the pessimist. the open of the asx 200,

stagnant start and coming online flat. traders looking at the inflation data, a monthly reading is due in the next hour and it could show moderation somewhat and the focus on what that means for the rba and tracking the moves in brent crude, the start of the day's session and we see this moving a little higher but traders focusing significantly on the recession risks from the central bank rises rather than the underlying fundamental shery in the market. shery: let's bring in our next expert who likes korean and taiwanese semi conductor there's. -- semi conductors. great to have you with us. we have seen significant underperformance in regional stocks across the asia-pacific and half of that give you more room before optimism when it comes to the semi names?

because at the same time there are geopolitical tensions in the industry. >> medium-term, certainly. we are constructive on the tech hardware names in general. number one, the new source of demand rising from ai and related applications will likely be sustainable in the medium to long-term. second, the consequence of capacity cuts we saw earlier, the supply and demand balance in many segments of memory and some eyes are more likely to be favorable for producers for the for -- for the foreseeable time. we are clearly more in favor of that universe than we were six

months ago and so our allocation to the tmt segment in the asian market portfolio has increased. shery: we continue to see this negative use flow when it comes to china related news. do you find any opportunities in china in this sector or others, given the downside? >> are stance on china can be summarized in three words. constructive but selective. and that is exactly how we approach china. we think there is a strong rationale for policy stimulus supporting consumption and that can come through in the form of larger infrastructure investments and more incentives

and the second round of urbanization but consequence leave the sectors that would benefit our human discretionary's and that encompasses urban consumption and tourism related sectors. we also like the sme's, the government owned companies in china. one strong reason is they provide a very strong, high dividend yield and that is an important theme so some government owned banks, even some tech companies and telecommunication, they find space in our model portfolio. haidi: do you think momentum meaningfully changes when we finally get stimulus announced

or will that have been priced in already? >> there was strong expectations of stimulus getting built in earlier in june and that sort of fizzled out after the 10 basis points because the market felt it was inadequate. we think a broader set of announcements will likely be made in late july or early august around the time of the policy meetings and that is what the market is waiting for, a more coordinated approach. but there are some celibate segments of sectors that would have a longer term sustained benefit as a consequence and given that they are cheap

medium-term investors can make money in those investors and stocks. haidi: what opportunities do you see when it comes to ai that is not so far up the value chain yet that there are limited opportunities with some of the big names in china you see now? >> as of now the ai related benefits are really concentrated in the korean and taiwanese semi conductor and memory names. taiwanese names in particular have done well. there has been a significant rub off affect of the positive announcements made by the u.s., taiwanese and korean companies so for now our focus is there,

as far as the hardware segment is concerned. there are chinese companies currently engaged in similar chatbots that they claim them to be at least at par by the american ones so that space will remain active in terms of news flow and innovations and there are chinese companies who are active in that universe that would continue to gain as well. haidi: it is always great to have you with us. breaking news when it comes to changes at the top of oaktree capital. changes regarding naming the

co-ceos according to reporting from the wall street journal. the ceo in -- from 2014 is going to leave the firm. they manage assets and the co-ceos have been flagship managers and run the performing credit business which lends to healthy companies and they will continue to hand their other responsibilities on top of taking the ceo duty. ubs is preparing to cut more than half of the workforce of

credit suisse with impacts in london, new york, and asia as the most hardest hit. is this more or less in line with expectations? >> it depends on which number you have been going with since the merger that brought together a total of 120,000 people. we knew the order of 35,000 would be on the chopping block but now we are learning more details about how this will pan out. there were -- there will be a few rounds of cuts. it will start at the end of july and then it will go into september and potentially october and anyone who has followed the story will know that ubs has been public with the numbers they have put around the cost cuts and they still want to save around $6 billion over the coming years as they reintegrate the credit suisse areas into the business but yes that total headcount reduction

of 35,000 is in line with what people expected but how it will play out and the july, september, october dates give it more certainty. shery: what is the implication for the business in asia? were not just talking about ubs but perhaps other banks also starting to cut jobs and reduce overall headcount? >> banks around the world are cutting back. it's a function of not just a fragility of the global economy but specific areas in investment banking that have been struggling. m&a one of the big areas. one of the things trying to be done with the integration is keep the strong areas that credit suisse is known for, that they will continue to do well in, like private banking, the

market for structured loans and selling them to wealthy clients, that continues to be strong and they want to keep it if not grow it, especially in parts of asia. so there will be plenty of cuts and a lot of the cuts are happening in the big locations around the world but there are still pockets that will do well and write out the merger. -- ride out the merger. paul: haidi: let's get -- let's get back to annabelle. we are watching asia chip names. annabelle: the wall street journal reported the biden administration could place further restrictions on chip exports to china, focusing on the ai names so nvidia is one of the biggest decliners done more than 2% and the terms of what we see in asia because we have

trading for japan, korea, and australia we are 15 minutes into the session and we are still seeing names move higher which tells us it could be the influence of what we saw in the session because it was that move back into a links stocks that was more down to the signals of economic resiliency came through consumer confidence heading to the highest level since 2022. in terms of other indicators we are reacting to today i'm a homebuilding -- today, homebuilding stocks. in the u.s., new home sales surged to the fastest pace in over a year and that was bolstered by women and imagery in the market but some of these big suppliers in the north american market and mikita and focus trending higher. one last sector this morning, airlines, given we saw delta

modestly boost the 20 23 earnings expectations really seeking to capitalize on the recovery in travel demand is the airlines moved to the upside. shery: still ahead, we are live at the world economic forum and we will speak with the eurasia group chairman. but first, a flurry of data shows surprising strength in several quarters of the u.s. economy, painting a picture of resilience and further delaying any likelihood of recession. more on that next. this is bloomberg. ♪ ou speechless. at the counter or on the go, save 20% with the lowest transaction fees and keep more of what you make. start saving today at godaddy.com

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shery: treasuries in the asian session are holding steady. perhaps a little pressure on yields. strong u.s. data sending yields higher. consumer confidence for home sales coming in strong. kathleen hays is here. three key sectors picking up steam. kathleen: consumer manufacturing, and housing are all showing strength. resilience might be put in

question now. 763,000 units at an annualized rate for the third month in a row that they have risen and if you are worried about recession or your job and you are losing confidence, why are you so ready to buy a new home? u.s. consumer confidence up seven points. that's the highest since january 2022. nearly 50% of the people i talked to see jobs plentiful. business equipment up again. you must be confident if you are ready to invest in new equipment. this chart is great. it's the bloomberg u.s. surprise index. we do not have downside surprises like a few years ago,

a few months. now we have green. what is going on? it reconfirms what jay powell said when he talked about how we are pausing now and we have to assess but in the end there are probably a few more rate hikes this is the kind of data that makes it look like not such a bad idea. haidi: the hawks are singing in full voice. it is a july rate hike a done deal? kathleen: as the president of the ecb put it today, barring a big change in conditions she does see a july hike. she thinks it is too early to say rates have peaked. policy has to get more restricted to bring inflation back to target. >> we need to bring rates into

sufficiency -- sufficiently restrictive territory to lock-in policy tightening and communicate clearly that we will stay at those levels for as long as necessary to ensure hiking rates does not elicit expectations of the rapid policy reversal and will allow the full impact of our past actions to materialized. kathleen: [indiscernible] the central bank chief in slovenia said he thinks persistent inflation will call for more rate hikes. latvia's central bank chief said you cannot rule out a july hike and markets are too optimistic about inflation coming down quickly and he does not see any rate hikes until the middle of 2024.

so one chorus is hawkish voices. we will hear from the president of the bank of england and he is expected to signal that there will be more rate hikes and the chief economist of the imf is calling on the ecb and global peers to hike rates more so it's not just the central banks, it is one of the institutions that watches over them. haidi: the bank of slovenia governor is one of the policymakers striking a hawkish tone but they told us a monetary policy alone cannot bring inflation done as quickly as needed. >> we are seeing encouraging developments on the economy side

and the mechanisms but there are stronger risks for the development inflation. the most important at the moment are wages and how the dynamic of wages will unfold over the next month [indiscernible] and the second element which would also be crucial is fiscal policy. it is the fact that fiscal policy around europe is in a position to [indiscernible] >> are you frustrated that fiscal policy is not working in tandem with monetary policy to take inflation down? >> it is extremely important

both policies work in the same direction. monetary policy tightening conditions would mean the fiscal policy has to do the same to bring inflation done as soon as possible and at all costs. otherwise we will have to go further [indiscernible] >> when you walk around central, a lot of central bank governors on the golf course are telling us their main concern is a wage price spiral. what are the chances? >> it is very important for the future developments that the wages our response will be sufficient because if we enter

the bottom with new negotiations taking place in places with high inflation remaining persistent and the wages will increase and cause additional pressure on inflation so it is important that are action [indiscernible] shery: you can get a roundup of all of the stories you need to know to get your day going in today's edition of daybreak. go to dayb and you can customize your settings so you only get the news that you care about. this is bloomberg. ♪

shery: take a look at how stocks are trading across asia. we mostly see green after we saw the risk rally in the new york session. up 4/10 of 1% and this coming at a time when we are watching the nikkei job 8/10 of 1%. we are watching the japanese yen closely because we are gaining a little ground of 2/10 of 1% but perhaps intervention watch. up next, eurasia group speaks to

haidi: the world economic forum

is underway and the chinese premier has warned of economic barriers. stephen engle is standing by with our next guest. >> we have an exclusive conversation with the man to my right, the chairman of the eurasia group. we all heard li qiang speech yesterday. what was your take away? >> as expected. two things i heard is the economy is not good, china is safe and we are open for business. >> he kind of criticized the terminology the west has adopted, which is de-risking. but they have their own. they call it dual circulation or self-reliance. it is not just semantics? how to we read the rhetoric

shift? >> i think the u.s. is doing it more publicly, high-profile, really encouraging companies. the chinese tactic is to be less dependent on the market so he is probably right in saying what the west is doing is more profound. they see china as a security threat and a lot of businesses don't feel comfortable being here. >> this is my first time being in china in four years after being here quite a bit so i have found a lot of people are asking more questions rather than giving statements about what they feel because they don't know they are filling out the situation. do you feel that? there is a whole new leadership

team we are trying to read the tea leaves with. >> people don't know what to make of their lives in a profound way. they couldn't go out for three years because of covid. the market thought they would spend a lot of money but they are being careful. that is the fundamental problem economically is consumer demand is not what they thought it would be. >> are we in a bifurcated economic world? the wall street journal says we will see a i chips added to export controls. equipment will be restrictive. the executive order potentially coming down limiting ai investment. where does this send the u.s.-china relationship? >> it sends us into a bifurcated tech world of foundational

technologies like you just mentioned. other states are going to have to think twice, they will have to choose sides, more or less. so it's a very narrow small area, high fence set of issues. for the rest of the global economy from consumer goods to can -- two economics, decoupling will not take place. it would be the end of the global economy as we know it so i think we are focusing on what is happening rather than what could happen. >> and the u.s. strategy should be focused more on the global south because they are not taking positions on the differences, they maintain their strategic ambiguity. brazil, singapore, indonesia, saudi arabia.

how much of a strategy shift should there be? we saw the g7 where japan invited many of these countries. >> india is the big kahuna. they are the world's largest population and some day, economy. so it will be tough for the u.s.. our policy has not been much of a policy. before ukraine, they thought it is a war with russia and it will not impact our lives but [inaudible] >> you still say the war in ukraine by russia is still the number one risk to the global economy. >> i think it is a very important risk and the main

reason is we do not know what putin will do and now putin knows that his rule is not as secure as it used to be. that increases the chance we could see [inaudible] >> is a weaker putin more dangerous? >> exactly. a guy like that could launch very bad cyberattacks on the eu or attack with a nuclear weapon if ukraine advances more than they think. >> china might argue that a collapsed russia would be a bigger risk, especially to them. what do you say to that? >> it would be. to have a huge nuclear superpower at the northern border totally in chaos is a nightmare.

>> what reputational damages there, given in an environment like this to the business security to china's tacit support of putin? >> not much. markets, reputational risk, those have gotten used to the fact that china's policy is pro-russian. what would flip is if china provides legal aid to russia. we have primary sanctions and secondary sanctions on china. the trade with china that is unbreakable would be broken. that's the only way i could see it coming down. >> and they are walking a fine line on it already. >> exactly.

>> back to you. shery: stephen engle there with the chairman of eurasia group. we have much more ahead from the world economic forum and we will speak exclusively to the heads of the eurasian resources group and primavera capital. for now, let's get a check of the markets. annabelle: half an hour into the session for japan, korea, and australian equities and it will be interesting to see what develops because we are starting to see moderation, off the intraday gains so far for some benchmarks and korea already slipping into negative territory so there are quite a few, we had a good tailwinds coming into the session from wall street and we saw investors really optimistic about ai stocks in particular and signals of strength in the u.s. economy, things like

new-home sales rising to the highest since may last year and consumer confidence spiking to the highest level since early 2022. in the after hours it has been more of focus back on geopolitics in particular with the wall street journal report coming out essentially saying the u.s. would add further restrictions on to ai chip exports to china and that is something that has been weighing a little today in the session in terms of the outlook for other asset classes you can see bonds trading at a narrow range and currency keeping the focus on the japanese yen and just a little firmer against the greenback after we had more talking coming through from japan's currency chief saying he is aware of the excessive moves and the yen and prepared to take action if necessary but probably if you change now it seems investors in a little bit of wait and see mode choosing to sit on the sidelines when you look at trading bonds for instance they are well off the

20 day moving averages this year is projection for trading volumes over the course of the session versus what we see on a 20 day average haidi. haidi: let's look at china and the equities markets and we are seeing the country pushing back against sentiments and toward the -- for more let's bring in charlotte yang and charlotte the currency is one of the easiest proxies to play when you are looking at the growth and lack of forthcoming meaningful stimulus. >> yes. the key thing investors are watching is if we sought the strengths are in assets or equities we saw yesterday will continue to play out into the session today so when we look at equities yesterday i'm sure it was the focus on [indiscernible] if we look at the trading volume

for example onshore is still trading the total volume so that signals that investor sentiment is still weak and people are waiting to see and we have a bunch of key data coming out. later this week the pmi data. so that's an another key thing we are watching his which direction it will go today and yesterday when the pboc said the fixing was stronger expected for the second day and that was to take as a positive signal that authorities are not comfortable with a one-time move so we will be watching which direction they will be heading today and whether we could be seeing more coming from the pboc for the currency. shery: charlotte yang with the latest on a preview of what we can expect in china trading today. chip makers tumbled following a

wall street journal report that the biden administration is considering new curbs on the ai chip exports to china. they could to stop shipments without a license as soon as next month. washington is taking steps to prep asian ability to build ai capability as concerns arise over the power of the technology in the hands of rivals. in the battle for supremacy in technology like degenerative ai is just beginning and china's tech sector enlisting the help of billionaire entrepreneurs trying to outdo their rival, the u.s. let's bring in our technology reporter. jane, what is happening in china and which companies are making the major investments in this technology? >> that's a good question. i think the question is who is not investing. tech companies in china are all

finding ways to use ai and do not want to miss this opportunity which is called once in a decade. the big tech giants like tencent, alibaba, all these companies built their own models in a month and the investment is becoming [indiscernible] major firms in china are actively sourcing data in this industry so there are many startups coming up in china in this field and i interviewed many of the startups in my story so more details can be found there. haidi: what are the interesting applications we are seeing for ai in china at the moment? >> one ceo said this is really

the moment for ai and this could speed up the emergence of new platforms to host a life of revolutionary applications based on my interviews and research their are chatbots in china and applications in the e-commerce industry to help manufacturers track consumption trends. there are applications in the gaming to replace concept artists and large operate applications to have meetings. i believe there are more applications scenarios coming up in the near future. shery: so right now how big is the gap between the u.s. and china? >> i think we are really divided opinions on this.

i interviewed the founder of china's second largest search engine and now the founder of the ai start up in china and he says the gap is three years but it doesn't mean china needs three years to catch up because the whole industry is doubling efforts so they are also divided opinions, the founder of [indiscernible] says the gap is just several months so there are different remarks from different tech tycoons. china lags behind but it is catching up now and we can also see that from the investment data and the number of chinese ai [indiscernible] made up two thirds in the year

to june compared to 50% in the previous two years. haidi: jane jong with the latest in big tech. more to come here on daybreak asia. this is bloomberg. ♪ i need it cool at night. you trying to ice me out of the bed? baby, only on game nights. you know you are retired right? am i? ya! the queen sleep number 360 c2 smart bed is now only $899. plus, free home delivery when you add an adjustable base. shop now only at sleep number.

shery: the dollar holding steady in the asian session after

sinking in new york and this led to the other side of the trade with developing asian currencies gaining ground. a cohort rising for the first time in says event -- seven sessions in the chilean pesto was one of the strongest seeing the best in a month or so and there was a lot of them is him about potential chinese stimulus leading to more growth in copper and lithium. shiley's finance minister says the country is prepared to move towards monetary easing. she said that she lay will move to foster -- she said that chile will move to foster economic growth. >> the changes we see right now are that the investors are less concerned about the immediate juncture, chilean economy

completing an adjustment, cutting inflation and rebalancing the economy so now investors are putting their attention more to medium to long-term issues. shery: you talked about presenting the tax reform proposals in the next few weeks and we heard reports that this could be delayed until next year so how confident are you you will have the backing of congress and do you have a backup plan? >> yes. we have a much stronger strategy this time. we are talking about a fiscal government that includes not only taxation but also spending priorities and also improving on fiscal efficiency and fostering growth so it brings different dimensions of fiscal space

together to address issues. remember this is not just an issue for the government. improving pensions and health services and citizens security are the top priority for chilean citizens. shery: as a former central bank governor, what do you make of the signals we are getting from monetary authorities that we might see rate cuts in july and we are even seeing board members in the last meeting voting for a 50 basis point cut now. would you say that is the appropriate pace to go forward? >> first of all i think it is important to be aware that chile started tightening earlier than other countries. nine months before the federal reserve.

it is likely they will turn around monetary policy earlier than other countries as well. given that the economy has undergone significant adjustment by bringing down consumption that was really strong and the economy is currently prepared towards loosening monetary policy. haidi: that was our conversation with the finance minister of chile. bloom into bloomberg rate o4 more in-depth analysis. we are broadcasting live from our studio in hong kong and you can listen in on our app or bloombergradio.com. this is bloomberg. ♪ upbeat music) ♪

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haidi: the fight for equality in hong kong faces a major test today as the cities are considering overturning a ban on same-sex marriages. bruce einhorn joins us with more. in terms of the hearing before

the court today, what is the background because over the past couple of years we have seen hong kong courts issue a series of decisions in favor of lgbtq rights including those pertaining to access to housing and such. >> that's right. for the past five years or so the courts have issued rulings related to things like inheritance right, spousal benefits, housing, visas for people married overseas. all of the rulings have gone in the direction of giving more rights to lgbtq people. most recently the court of final appeal which is the equivalent of the supreme court ruled in february that a requirement of the government that transgender people undergo surgery before they could change the gender marker on their id cards, the court ruled that was not in

accordance with hong kong's basic law so this case before the court now is the latest. this would be the really big one if the court rules that the current ban on same-sex marriage is unconstitutional. the hearing is expected to happen this morning and will likely take a few months before they issue a ruling. shery: what is the mood in other parts of asia in terms of courts addressing a quality cases? >> this part of the world there are very few places where there is same-sex marriage so if you go from taiwan which has a and then start flying west you do not get to another place where there is marriage equality until you reach europe so in this part of the world there really is not that much but on the other hand there are challenges in several places.

in india of the supreme court is now considering a case regarding marriage equality. in japan there have been a couple of lower court rulings that have found japan's ban on marriage equality is in constitutional and it is possible that will work up to the japanese supreme court. even in south korea, not known as a progressive place for lgbtq rights there has been a court ruling in favor of the rights for people to get health insurance benefits so the courts are starting to get more involved. shery: we have to leave it there but markets coverage will continue as we look at the start of trading in hong kong, shanghai, and shenzhen. this is bloomberg. ♪

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