tv Bloomberg Daybreak Australia Bloomberg June 28, 2023 6:00pm-7:00pm EDT
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>> welcome to "daybreak australia." here are the top stories this hour -- the fed chair signals possible rate hikes in july and september. jay powell joining peers at the central form -- forum in warning the inflation fight is not over. markets focus instead on the sliding chipmakers, of setting an advance in slighting mega caps. plus, u.s. banks ace the stress tests, clearing a hurdle for returning billions of dollars to u.s. investors. we are seeing a little bit of upside right now after a mixed finish in new york. we saw stocks fluctuating between gains and losses. investors trying to digest chair powell's hawkish signals. not to mention this is a quarter and positioning time.
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we had a late block purchase and a solid seven-year option, and despite those hawkish central bank comments, we got the 10-year falling. oil rose in the new york session, but we are seeing a little bit of pressure as the asian markets open. a u.s. government report showed stockpiles fell the most in two months, but after hours, take a look at what micron is doing. we saw that jump after they offered an upbeat forecast, perhaps signs the industry glut is easing. let's discuss with su keenan, who has more on the earnings results. the investigation in china impacting micron's outlook. su: that's the tough news, the china cybersecurity probe impacting micron's outlook. that said, it was far better than expected.
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it's starting to indicate that chip glut is starting to ease. says could be as much as 4.1 billion, beating the estimate of roughly 3.9 billion, reeling it -- really putting and lyft under shares. they are already up some 34% year to date. the company projecting a loss of about $1.12 to $1.26 a share in the current period, again much narrower than had been anticipated. microsoft's ceo believes the industry has passed through a trough of revenue, and he expects margins to improve. this as supply/demand balance also improves. the recent actions in china where the government has decided micron's products are a security risk, is "a significant headwind " impacting recovery.
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micron has suffered a collapse in orders for its products after sluggish demand for smartphones and personal computers led to a huge buildup in inventory. it now looks like they have worked with that. even so, the company is not predicting a rapid return of growth in the current year. they say pc shipments are expected to decline from a year ago, below pre-pandemic levels. they also predict the smartphone industry will contract from a year ago. that said, investors very much like the news and bumped up the stuff in extended trading. >> let's look at what is happening in china. micron competitor samsung is not facing problems. su: unlike its korea competitors, it has a huge handicap, which is the rivalry between the u.s. and china, and that is underscored very much by this cybersecurity administration of china probe in
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which the agency has barred micron's chips from critical infrastructure in china, and micron has worn about half of its sales for a china-based clients may be impacted. several of micron's clients are being contacted by chinese officials as part of the investigation. that investigation announced earlier in the year and micron's revenue with business based both in mainland china and hong kong accounts for about a quarter of the company's total revenue. shery: su keenan with the latest on micron and the chip industry. central bankers agree inflation is not yet tamed. this, though, leaves asia's leading monetary policy maker, the boj, as a big outlier on the
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world stage. our global economics and policy editor kathleen hays is here. kathleen: there will for sure be more tightening. that comes with this powerhouse policy panel at the ecb forum in central portugal had jay powell, kazuo ueda, and christine lagarde all on stage. jay powell in particular saying policy in the u.s. is somewhat restrictive but not yet restrictive enough, and he sees more needing to be done. >> we are going to move the decisions a little bit, make them a little bit with a little bit more time in between them in an effort to see how much restraint is really coming from rate hikes we made only 6, 8, 9
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months ago, but i would not take moving consecutive meetings off the table at all. kathleen: decide being open to what would be consecutive rate hikes in july and september, powell says he does not see u.s. inflation getting that down to the 2% target until 2025, suggesting that at least holding on to restrictive policy will last for a while. christine lagarde spoke a lot about why the ecb needs to do more, suggesting that a rate hike in july it is all but a certainty. interesting, she said explaining why they have to do more, she said the bank will do what -- a man will do what he has to do and she said a woman will have to do what she has to do, too, so there you go. finally, andrew bailey surprised with a 50-basis-point rate hike at the bank of england's last meeting, so there's a lot of questions, leaving the door open to doing more, not committing to
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a particular rate hike yet, but everybody says inflation is still high, they have to do more, and that is the common message that rang so loud today. haidi: messaging from the boj still pretty consistent. governor ueda remaining above target. is this about, as he says, remaining confident he will stay in that range? kathleen: he said it so clearly, so succinctly today. inflation has been running about target by just about any key measure for about a year now or more, but yet, not ready to make. let's listen. what's on the line, inflation is still a bit low, around 2%. that's why we are keeping policy unchanged at the moment. >> to a certain extent he seems to be talking about what drives inflation. low wages, that's one of the biggest factors in japan that
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the boj looks at four if and when they can make a policy shift, presumably starting with some tweaking, which he did not give any indication of doing anything like that today. he does see progress on wages, that they do look stronger. companies are starting to give wage hikes because they know they have to to keep up with other companies that are hiking wages. he thinks inflation expectations are starting to change. he was very witty. i had no idea that ueda was so witty. he talked about how it has been 30 years since the bank of japan has done any kind of substantial tightening of policy, and he was asked about the impact of let's, and he said let's in boj policy could be at least 25 years based on past episodes of tightening. not only did he give a clear message about not being ready to move, i think he gave quite a few laughs during that hour and a half conference today. haidi: kathleen hays, our global
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economics and policy editor. the 23 largest u.s. banks have passed the fed's stress test. let's bring the details from vonnie quinn. this would have come as something of a relief if not entirely unexpected after the banking turmoil of the past few months. vonnie: exactly. this is a snapshot of where the bank's balance sheets were at the end of 2022, so devised even before the banking turmoil happened and would not have included those banks that did have the turmoil rippled through them this year. however, we did see the 23 largest banks in the united states face, in the fed's words, the stress test and it was also the most stringent stress test since the financial crisis. commercial real estate dropping by 40% and residential home prices down by 38% along with a surge in dollar, and we saw the banks face it in all cases -- we saw the banks ace it in all
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cases. that said, some banks' capital buffers were a little bit narrower than others. u.s. bank would have a ratio of about 6.6%. again, you these tests were done before the turmoil. the fed vice chair said this in a statement following the release. this stress test is only one way to measure the strength. we should remain humble about how risks can arise and continue our work to ensure that banks are resilient to a range of economic scenarios, market shocks, and other stresses, and bear in mind, these results did show losses of about $541 billion in that most severe scenario, and there's more regulatory action coming later this summer. analysts have pointed out there is a wave of regulation this year. not only will we get the basel three rules which will change capital requirements for banks, but we are also under the
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supervision of michael bar himself going to get new rules on what banks will have to hold in reserve. usually after these stress tests results, we get a plethora of announcements on dividends and share buybacks. many banks have already suggested we will have to wait until later in the summer until we get answers on what other requirements around the world will be before they announced what they are going to do with what i have in reserve. shery: which is really interesting because every time we have these stress tests, this seems to be the biggest challenge when it comes to capital planning, but not this year. what are we expecting in terms of the impact on capital returns? bonnie: right. we are waiting on basel three, which has been a long time in coming and we will get that potentially quite soon. banks are a little bit in anticipation of that but also very much aware that the fed is going to come out with new rules for supervision following the most recent banking turmoil, so
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who knows what michael bar and his cohorts will come out with in terms of what the fed has to put aside in order to make sure that in the worst case scenario and in severe stress scenarios that banks will be able to continue to function and will be able to loan out. the fed chair himself has suggested that the biggest banks could base about a 20% increase in the amount of capital they are asked to set aside under these new requirements, and he added that the eight biggest banks will bear the brunt of that, so presumably, smaller banks will not have to put aside an extra 20%, but i bet your some accountants and cfo's are sitting back and waiting to see what they will actually set aside before they part of -- before they promised anything to shareholders. shery: vonnie quinn with the latest. let's see how we are opening across markets in asia. and to digest. >> that's right.
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the expectation we will see further tightening ahead and that differential, of course because ueda is taking is an outlier in the central bank tightening cycle, not looking to make any sort of policy adjustments any time soon, and that has continued to be reflected, that yield gap in the dollar trading against the yen, close to that 145 level. we are looking to take cues from the wall street session, largely a lot of futures, even though you cannot see it really reflected here, but a lot of interest in asia still pointing to gains in the session. kiwi stocks already online. sydney looking largely weaker, but in context, we actually saw sidney over the asx 200 having its best session in more than two months wednesday after we had the weaker inflation data come through bolstering the case for the rba to hold again. when you put those moves we saw
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in the asx 200 into more of a global perspective, you can see this chart taking a look as we get in and approach the end of the second quarter for trading global stocks, looking to rise for a third straight quarter, and what has been powering that has been a move into ai-led stocks. shery: still ahead, the last day of the world economic forum in china. we will be speaking to bosley's apac chair later in the hour. gradient investment warns of risks over the fed over tightening as jay powell warns of possible back-to-back rate hikes. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> we still have ground to cover. >> although policy is restrictive, it may not been -- it may not be restrictive enough and has not been restrictive for long enough. >> we will decide on a meeting by meeting basis. >> underlying inflation is still a bit low, around 2%. that's why we are keeping policy unchanged at the moment. >> if our baseline stands, we know we will very likely hike
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again in july. >> we are going to move the decisions a little bit -- make them a little bit more time in between them. >> we will do what is necessary. >> i would not take moving i consecutive meetings off the table at all. haidi: some of the world's top central bankers weighing in on economic policy. our next guest is graded investments' central asia portfolio manager. it is a precarious situation for investors to be in, depending if you buy into soft landing, not much of a landing at all or if you will see policy over tightening send economies like the u.s. into recession. where do you sit on that balance? >> first of all, i think the ecb and the bank of england were being too aggressive in raising rates last week, so i think they are spooked by current reports
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of 8% inflation in the u.k., and they are probably not looking at the problem through effect of the higher rate on inflation, but we see that cut in half in the u.s., and i would hope that the federal reserve would be more patient about inflation coming down. that being said, getting to that holy grail of 2% inflation is not attainable soon in our opinion. and remember, we went for years of not reaching as much as 2% inflation, and we did not do much about it at the time, so i think we can take the pedal off the metal here in the u.s. and wait and see and then watch the inflation rate come down. haidi: where are you seeing opportunities then?
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>> we see, just to be very pointed, opportunities in some of the insurance companies. they have been hammered by, you know, a difficult environment. they have been hammered by a need to raise rates, and the end result is companies at the impact of higher pricing baked into the stock. we think trump insurance -- we think chubb insurance and realize a low double-digit to mid double-digit return within the next year. cigna group is a health insurance company, also 10 times earnings. we expect earnings to grow 14%,
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so we are in the double-digit category right there. the chart looks very attractive, having pulled back 17% year-to-date, but we know that historically, when the sector has seen these kind of pullbacks , investors are well rewarded over the next year. with the dividend yield, we think we can get low to mid single digit total return on the next year. shery: do you look into alternative assets like real estate as well? i ask because we got u.s. home sales rising much more than expected. >> the real estate that we like best is alexandria real estate equities, and that is a company that builds state-of-the-art life science buildings highly customized, and the ones who, you know, pay the leases are a
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lot of very large pharmaceutical companies who have outsourced their r&d expenses, and they need these types of buildings. they don't need the office buildings. they don't want to wait for those who get retrofitted. that would be very expensive, but they help to custom build these life science buildings pretty much on the east coast around boston and the west coast around san diego and san francisco. but again, the excess of office buildings does not mean there is excess life sciences space. the stock is cheaper than it has ever been to, even lower than it was during covid, so it looks very washed out to us, trading at 12 times next 12 months, and it offers a 4.3% dividend yield, so we think alexandria realty is very attractive. shery: we were talking earlier
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in the show about the fed stress tests and how despite the fact that all these banks actually aced it, that this is just one of the first hurdle in capital planning, given that there are other regulatory oversight measures that we still need to wait and see. in this environment after the banking turmoil, do you find any opportunities in the banking sector, especially with bigger names that may have benefited from the roles of their smarter -- smaller counterparts? >> we still like bank of america. this is a very diverse financial institution. it is much more than just banking. it is investment banking and asset management, which we really like. that is a very sticky business. yes, we do think there are opportunities within the group, and we would be buyers here. shery: always good to have you. thank you. the world economic forum's
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meeting in china continues where they are live throughout the day speaking with the chairs of the boston consulting group as well as the senior trade policy professor from cornell university. you can get a round up of all of these top stories we have been discussing throughout the show in today's edition of daybreak. you can customize your settings so you only get the news on the industries and assets that you care about. this is bloomberg. ♪
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with taylor swift mania set to give australia's economy set to give -- said to give australia's economy a boost, the popstar has added two new shows. shery: we are seeing the skies again here in new york city turning gray, this, of course, as some of the largest u.s. cities are also under smoky skies. we are talking mostly in the midwest and mid-atlantic states. more markets coming up on "daybreak australia." this is bloomberg.
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the risk out there. >> it is so uncertain right now. in my view, the least unlikely case is we do find our way to better balance without a really severe downturn. >> we are in a more resilient position than i expected, so we are not currently forecasting it. haidi: i'm up --shery: some of the world's top central bankers speaking about recession risk. and the dollar getting hawkish signals from the ecb for them. let's ring in our global market reporter in the new york studio. what do you make of those comments? when we think about the u.s. dollar, long-term, we are thinking later in the year it will get weaker because we are pricing in week -- in rate cuts, but it seems to be moving in the other direction. >> a lot of people at the beginning of the year expected the dollar to go down because
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the fed would start cutting rates, but so far, the dollar has been very resilient with central bank saying they have not done the job of tightening yet. they could even go on a consecutive basis keep raising rates. i think it is disappointing for the consensus that the dollar is so strong right now. haidi: disappointing for the yen bulls, two, after some dovish posturing from governor ueda. >> yes, it shows the difference between the boj and other central banks. where the other banks are raising rates, the boj is staying put. we do see some extraordinary movement so far in the japanese yen this year. brazilian real has appreciated close to 30% so far this year, so better than the nasdaq stocks
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even. we started getting some noise from japan that they are watching the exchange rate quite closely. last year, the exchange rate market peaked at the dollar-yen exchange rate. haidi: the chinese yuan past 7.2. it seems is it's all about rate differentials at this point. >> indeed. the chinese policy is another divergent into monetary policy. so far, we have not seen too much pushback for the central bank. the pboc did say they are fixing a little bit stronger, but compared to last year, this is nothing. yesterday or the day before -- last year, we consistently had more than 500 pips stronger
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signal. it seems to me there is much more room to run in the chinese market. shery: we have been watching the euro as well, holding at that 1.09 level. the ecb vice president saying another interest rate increase in july is all but assured. but the outcome of the following meetings remains unclear. >> i think the msh was good. we are not done. there is more ground to be covered. >> what happens for future interest rate hikes? i know you are data-dependent. i know september is a question
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mark, but given the data points we have now, are you just going to go ahead and hike? let's what are the factors -- >> what are the factors that are going to determine what will happen in september? it depends on how the tightening financial conditions fit through . in september we will have a new round of predictions, and then core inflation. these are the elements we will take into consideration. >> do you believe this is a
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matter of credibility for the central bank to get to 2% no matter what happens? >> it is very important. our mandate is to guarantee price stability, so for us, it is key. >> do you worry about stagflation in the euro zone? >> i think that if you look at our predictions that were released a month ago, growth, the risks were to the downside, and i think that some of these downside risks have started to materialize and are becoming much more visible. this is something we will have to visit in september, but the data we are seeing now on growth , this data is not fully good, in terms of pmi, indicators,
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indicating perhaps the slowdown of the economy will continue. >> this is probably why the market is also present in cuts for 2024. >> yes, but i think simultaneously we will have to look at core inflation. this is a combination of factors. our predictions are a little bit below 1% with risks to the downside, but simultaneously, look at the evolution in the performance of the market. it's a good and impressive in terms of employed people and hours worked. i think this is an element that could affect the evolution of core inflation.
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haidi: atlas the ecb vice president speaking with francine lacqua in central portugal. let's get you caught up with some of thee other top stories around the world. chinese state media saying the new law in foreign relations serve as a basis for moves to counter what they call western hegemony. beijing has already imposed sanctions on foreign firms such as those on lockheed martin and raytheon technologies. pakistan in talks for assistance with their existing program expiring friday. newspaper says the short term agreement includes an upfront disbursement of $1.1 billion in the next 15 days. pakistan has been taking steps to regain access to a 6.7 billion dollar bailout program. president joe biden has touted
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his economic agenda as he seeks to bolster his reelection prospects. in a speech outlining his policy, he sees contrasting so-called bidenomics with republican policy. >> under trickle-down economics, it did not matter if you made things as long as you help the company's bottom line, even if that meant seeing jobs and industries go overseas for cheaper labor. supply chains and key products moved overseas like china and much of asia. shery: be sure to tune in to bloomberg rate at to hear more of the day's big newsmakers. the simple through the app radio plus or bloombergradio.com. plenty more ahead. stay with us. ♪
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shery: we have been watching chipmakers today with the pressure we saw in the philadelphia semiconductor index. after hours, we are seeing a little more upside, especially after micron released earnings. you are seeing the jump of 2.9% and an upbeat forecast. sales now moving as much as one point $1 billion in the fiscal fourth-quarter, and that really
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beat estimates. the signs perhaps now there that the industry glut is easing, despite the fact that the chipmaker continues to face challenges in china. of course, that u.s.-china geopolitical rivalry over tech being felt across the board. we saw nvidia take a hit earlier, rising after hours on news the biden administration plans to tighten controls announced in october to restrict use of china chips. investors -- something investors should search for ways to capitalize out of the rally. this is about looking for names perhaps beyond the mentioned nvidia. annabelle: that's right. this is really the hardware investment space, a lot of people looking into data centers and the actual infrastructure
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that will make ai a reality for larger parts of the population, but in terms of what morgan stanley is advising the client and other investors is to look for names that are not the mega cap tech stocks. it is really thinking about this as a gold rally or gold rush. don't look for the gold itself. look to invest in the picks and shovels. that is their way of looking for greater value. one area morgan stanley is focusing in on particular is cybersecurity. they say there could be a $30 billion opportunity that is unlocked in the sector from artificial intelligence. it is a bit of a double-edged sword because on the one hand, you have a situation where ai could be used to generate malware at a faster pace than ever before, but at the same time, you have these security organizations that will be forced to spend more on this
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sort of technology, particularly when you are also facing labor shortages. haidi: what are we hearing from blackrock on ai? annabelle: they introduced a new overweight call on the technology, essentially really focusing on the productivity gains that can be reached. when you look into the research, for instance, goldman sachs set up to 300 million jobs worldwide could be at risk from some sort of automation. his is not necessarily seen as a replacement tool but something that could be complementary to a lot of these different positions, and that is again what blackrock is emphasizing, that ai could be something that generates or lifts productivity across the board and that in turn drives more growth. shery: and i has also been one of the key themes at the world economic forum, now coming to a close. let's cross over to the event
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where our chief north asia correspondent stephen engle is with our next guest. steven: thanks a lot. my next guest is bcg regional chair for asia-pacific, and he has been talking a lot about ai here at the summer davos, the world economic forum. thank you for joining us. what have been the main points you have been bringing up? annabelle just ran through some of the bullish calls on ai. we have seen the blistering enthusiasm in stock prices the first half of the year. >> there has been a lot of injury about ai across all your clients. across pretty much everybody i meet. i say three things to people. people ask me is it powerful? absolutely. is it intelligent? i say that is a moot point.
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that is not really relevant. stephen: it is an amalgamation of human data we have collected. >> exactly. is it risky? yes, it is. what does that mean? it means we need to embrace potential. the people often are hugely critical. stephen: that is a good segue into the bcg research. i will not get into the weeds of the numbers, but generally, what does the research tell you? as we know more about it, are we as a people more confident or concerned, and should we be more confident or concerned? >> we recently interviewed executives across 12 or 13 countries asking if people were nervous or excited. it is a bit of both. stephen: that is what is
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interesting about regional different results as well. we saw places like brazil, india be more confident about it, but europe, for out of the top five nations showing concern -- for out of the top five nations showing concern, including japan, are european. what is the role -- we will get into china in just a minute, but what should the role of regulation b? when the new technologies come, and we saw a in china with alibaba and others, with the transformational e-commerce revolution. jack ma always told me you kind of have to be ahead of the regulators. that kind of came back and bit him, of course, but there's regulatory arbitrage. otherwise, regulation could quash the development of the industry. >> new arms race is going to
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happen. stephen: some of the people who are really well-versed are calling for pauses on training. is that a good idea because it is getting a little too ahead of regulation, and of course, moral hazards? >> the way i look at it is the development of responsible ai needs to be front and center. responsible ai is not only the responsibility of corporate spend regulators but all of us alike. stephen: we are here in china right now. ai has become kind of the new arms race -- very rapidly it has become that, and nobody wants to give up their competitive advantage, including the united states. the biden administration again retroactive to those export controls back in october, they will be limiting its.
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what does this bifurcation mean for all the issues we have just talked about, including regulation? there will not be a common set of rules and there will be separate development. >> this is playing out as we speak. it is hard to say, but the whole stack from chipset to software, there is possibly a bifurcation. what it does mean, though, is i think the challenges of mankind, of humankind are very similar. stephen: who will be the winners and losers? i know it is a simple question and maybe too simple, but i'm not necessarily by -- i'm not necessarily saying by nations but by industries. >> that is interesting. to me, it impacts all industries. we look at it more functionally than industry.
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say marketing, legal profession, plan operations -- you can keep going on and on. customer service. it's going to make a lot of -- it is going to be a revolution across lots of industries. is not going to be an evolutionary change but a revolutionary change. is data plug-ins are going to be much more benefited by this. there's much more work to do before they get fitted from this. stephen: who is leading on the national front right now? united states, chatgpt has the first mover advantage. china has some bought -- some bot with baidu. >> some of the foundational models have been built on
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humongous model data and that's where some of the organizations in the u.s. have an advantage, but i think openai is an indicator. they are not the only ones, they are the first ones. they are not the be-all and end-all of opportunity. on top of that, there will be sector-specific models. the base foundation, they will be winners take all, but in sectors, there will be many winners. stephen: generative ai is projected to create $3.2 billion in the next few years. might be conservative. haidi: stephen engle with us as we continue these conversations that world economic forum.
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we will get more from that event later on thursday. catch our exclusives. you can watch us live, too, catch up on past interviews on our interactive tv function and dive into any of the securities or bloomberg functions we talk about and join in the conversation as well as sending us messages on our programs. this is bloomberg. ♪
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haidi: bhp is calling first australia to lift its long-standing ban on nuclear power to help the country meet its net zero target by 2050. what is bhp saying? is it likely to sway the status quo? >> the topic does come up from time to time. the chief technical officer at bhp saying nuclear must be part of the conversation in terms of australia's energy mix. on paper, it makes a huge amount of sense because australia has something like 1/3 of the world's uranium reserves. it is geologically and politically stable and could really run the entire nuclear cycle from mining through to reprocessing through to waste.
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on the other hand, nuclear has such a terrible reputation, which is kind of deserved, kind of not. there's been 18,500 cumulative years of reactive use -- reactor used in 36 countries, but when it goes wrong, it goes very wrong, as we have seen in fukushima and chernobyl. shery: given all the challenges on that front, does a political will exist to remove the van -- the ban? >> it makes it such an inviting political football. it is such an emotional target. there are pockets of support. the van -- the ban has previously been called cowardly. it was introduced in 1999 by liberal prime minister john
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howard. just this year, we have had leaders say it is time to have a look at that and consider nuclear power part of the mix, but the real problem is getting past the legitimacy cap, that the risks outweigh the benefits, and citizens are always naturally skeptical when it comes to something like this, especially coming from bhp. shery: that is it for "daybreak australia." "daybreak: asia" is next. this is bloomberg. ♪ i was told my small business wouldn't qualify for an erc tax refund. you should get a second opinion from innovation refunds at no upfront cost. sometimes you need a second opinion. [coughs] good to go. yeah, i think i'll get a second opinion. all these walls gotta go! ah ah ah! i'd love a second opinion. no. i'm going to get a second opinion.
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