haidi: very good morning. welcome.

we are counting down to asias major market opens. shery: the top stories this hour. bond selloff across the curve as traders? bets by the end of the year. trade and gdp data showing the u.s. economy defying rescission fears. haidi: china stepping up scrutiny of currency trading seeking two-way -- ways to prevent that selloff. shery: plus, diversity after the supreme court effectively bars race as a factor in student admissions. take a look at u.s. futures and the agents session -- asian session, after a volatile session in new york and mixed finish the s&p 500 slightly higher but we are still talking about the first half of the year seeing gains of 1of course we hy inv

today, we had a little pressure on the trade, and also gains for banks, because lenders past the stress test results and were positive, not to mention a lot of volatility wrapping up the quarter in the first half of the year. we had strong economic data to date that led to treasury yields higher that pressured the tech trade with first quarter gdp revised really considerably higher uh, we are talking about household spending and consumer spending accelerating at the fastest pace in a couple of years or so. we had jobless claims unexpectedly falling, or were talking about the long dated treasury yields actually rising uh much faster than the uh shorter end of treasury yield so that actually led to that deeper curve inversion in it. we also have a little bit of pressure for oil prices with a

lot of volatility as u.s. data could lead to fed tightening and pressure, that is the question investors are trying to digest. let's bring in mark crown failed in our global economics and policy editor kathleen hays and let's start with mark, because it has all been about the treasury's trade today with yields rising most to the highest level since march. mark: well, jerome powell has been telling traders that he is data dependent on the path of what he does with interest rate is dependent on the next sets of data. yesterday we have a lot of strong data in the treasury market woke up to that and decided yes, maybe the fed is serious that maybe two rate hikes coming over the next two meetings that they had to reprice the curve to reflect that. there is also some since it may be there will be rate cuts in

2024. that is looking unlikely in traders need to adjust positioning to reflect that. you had data especially it still talks about a robust employment situation in the united states, so people will be watching the employment report next week for more details on that, but there is no weight that the fed can think about pausing when inflation is still too high in the end point is as strong as it is and so you put those things together it is no wonder that we saw treasury yields rise quite a lot yesterday. in terms of the latest we have heard from the fed, has it been illuminating in terms of expanding on the messaging that has been pretty consistent? kathleen: certainly consistent from jerome powell. yesterday the ecb form, today in spain, another place to speak publicly and in his prepared remarks he made it clear this is not just about two rate hikes,

this is about two or more. let us listen to what he had to say. >> as noted in the economic projections, a strong majority of committee participants expected will be appropriate to raise interest rates two or more times by the end of this year. kathleen: two more times, the summary of economic projections, the dots, that is what he's referring to. here is what he said in the q&a, the commitment is not to the number of hikes we duplicating policy to the point where it is sufficiently restricted to bring down inflation. he says the risk of doing too much or too little is what they are looking at and it is not in balance at and there is the risk of doing not enough. he says right now he did not rule out consecutive hikes or how they will do it. he said they may move at one meeting but not another and that it would take time for the impacts on inflation to be

realized that will play out over time and leave the door open tomorrow. bostic was the first one who said that, but also said skip a rate hike. he was speaking today and he said that he does not see that same urgency to hike that jerome powell and his colleagues do and he thinks it's time to stop and assess the number of rate hikes. let's listen to what he said. >> it is less certain we need to continue hiking in the medium-term, lesson we risk tightening too much and draining too much momentum from the economy. kathleen: he said it is his job to convince his colleagues about this, the need to may be keep rates where they are now, and in the future, let me make that clear, he does not rule out more rate hikes by the things a lot has been done and it is time to assess the jerome powell and others do not sound like they're in that camp.

the jobless claims start there and it is a weekly number and at a time like this he gets more attention and when the economy is going along and for a couple of weeks jobless claims have jumped up, but now they have fallen down this week, the biggest decline since october 2021. it is a holiday week. juneteenth was they appeared people are looking ahead to the fourth of july holiday week and weekend. this is the time that the automobile plants in detroit start closing down to retool, so it is a complicated time to measure claims properly, but the fact they are coming down in overtime the cap flat they are. they are just not moving, that is a strong signal for the tightness of the labor market which jerome powell and others expect to start easing in terms of tightness, but maybe not there yet. for gdp, the revision was healthy up to 2% up from 1.3%,

household and consumer spending revised up to 4.2%, the strongest in nearly two years. a lot of economists say know know no know this. -- start tapering off but for now. haidi: translating through the market expectations with treasury yields continued to soar as more tightening gets priced in, is there optimism there though? mark: yeah well it will be highly reflected in the foreign exchange markets are dollar-yen will be a huge focus today. we are not far from 145, the level where the japanese authorities started defending begin last year so traders are on high alert for that but the rate differential between japan and the u.s. is wider than this time last year when they were considering intervention, so that is something people were taken to account and it may be why you are seeing people load up in the option market.

they expect something to happen but probably towards the end of july, by the time we are may be closer to the 150 level and dollar-yen, so there will be huge activity enters in that and if dollar-you and starts moving again, that will spin off to other currencies in the asians as well but the treasury gives a driving everything at the moment because that differential is getting wider and dragging the u.s. dollar higher against a whole range of currencies, with the yen in the forefront of all that. haidi: mark cranfield and kathleen hays. what a chart. the average policy rate in the bank of japan. you can see how that policy divergence is playing out in such a dramatic right and that dollar-yen trade. let's look at asian markets shaping up at this minute as we continue to see the move when it comes to treasury yields. traders jacking up bets on two hikes by the end of the year and this is the set up when it comes to broader asian markets, a little bit of optimism with

sydney up when it comes to the futures session as we get into this end of the week. we are watching china in terms of regulators stepping up scrutiny as that selloff worsens as well and of course anything when it comes to uh china eco-outlook, it will be a good proxy for that submit aussie dollar trading just over $.66, so continuing to see that trajectory of weakness as we await stimulus measures yet to be announced by beijing. kiwi stocks down early in the session and as mark mentioned, we are watching begin in those rate differentials pretty close to that 145 handbook -- handle. whether we will get verbal intervention and whether that will make a difference in how severe this policy diversions is between the boj and the fed and most central banks around the rest of the world. rate especially with the pboc as well right?

let's dive into those signs that chinese officials are growing more uncomfortable with weakness in the yuan. let's bring in annabelle to discuss how they are dealing with this. annabelle: yes, that's right. let's put it in context. we have the chinese yuan hitting a fresh loaf of the year. we were just discussing the reasons for that with mark. it is a sign of double strength with the stronger data saying the fed still has more hiking to do and the other side is the chinese yuan, that expression of the concerns around the tiny -- chinese economy locally without my stimson support coming through and investors cutting holdings in bonds and assets prompting yuan weakness. the question is what officials and regulators are planning to do about it, but what we heard from sources is they are stepping up their use of surveys in terms of understanding how exporters, importers and banks, trying to understand how they are using the yuan and how concerned they are with the

slide. we have seen surveys used before so this is not a new tool they brought out of the toolkit, but what is different is the frequency of the surveys because we understand they have been using them more than they have historically and in terms of what it reflects, it could also be they are increasingly becoming uncomfortable with where the yuan is headed. rate china pmi -- haidi: china pmi. how does that factor into the outlook going forward? annabelle: this is data we said we were looking forward to, but not for the reason we wanted, because it is expected to social weakness in the economy, so manufacturing is expected to be 49, the pride was 48.8 so still, under the 50 points that would indicate we are in contraction territory, non-manufacturing pmi predicted up 53.5 a little bit

better, but that would still be a weakness from the prior reading at 54.5 on the but probably of course this is building into this expectation. do we need to see larger scale stimulus from officials? what is interesting as a survey that came out in the last few minutes from the china beige book saying that when they look at their data, it shows that the economy is actually doing better than what some economists and other analysts are seeing in the market, so there takeaway is markets have become to bearish on the recovery, and still to bullish on the results for prospects for recovery. haidi: annabelle in hong kong. still ahead we will be diving deeper into the china beige book report and discuss really where to next when it comes to the economic recovery and stimulus prospects. but up next we will be talking investment strategy with optimal capital advisors and checking their outlook for the second half of the year. this is bloomberg.

♪

i need it cool at night. you trying to ice me out of the bed? baby, only on game nights. you know you are retired right? am i? ya! the queen sleep number 360 c2 smart bed is now only $899. plus, free home delivery when you add an adjustable base. shop now only at sleep number.

haidi: take a look at this chart as the first half of the year wrap ups that shows global stock market performance year-to-date broken down by sector, and you can look at energy as the only sector down this year, reversing the lead last year.

tech and consumer discretionary stocks are of course course leading the pack. let's get more analysis on what we can expect in the second half of the year with the director strategy at optimal capital advisors joins us now. great to have you with us was that given uncertainty as to where the endgame ends up for monetary policy, if you will, how are you allocating we have seen such a run-up in valuations with some of these popular names pertaining to ai, consumer and big tech? frances: yeah i am a full believer in a, and tech on a much longer term trajectory but i do not think we have finished this iteration of the business cycle and i do not think the anomalies from covid and the monetary policy and fiscal policy and inflation have worked their way through the system yet. the reason i say that is because the yield curve is you know inverted over 100 basis points, and it is was that yield

curve,-steepeners that you get credit problems, so i think we have credit risk in the market as the fed continues to tighten. they tighten, rate hiking you know works on the lagging basis. it tends to erode consumerism 14 to 16 months in and we are in month 15, so given that tech and ai are amazing that we still have some potential credit events ahead that could hit in the second half of this year. haidi: where are you finding value and opportunity? you look at some debt buying opportunities across these funds so far. frances: yeah i mean, the thing is i still think the market is quite skeptical about rates, and the reason is we have not taken out the october high, and if you look at the longer end of the curve, you have longer highs. you know the duration rates are not going up like the short end of the curve is, so that is the

market questioning that. you're also seeing a negative correlation between the s&p 500 and the dollar and that is interesting because the dollar is starting to correlate with that, and that is typical when you have a deceleration in inflation growth simultaneously. we have a surprise to the upside of gdp with blowout consumerism in january however when you look at the income side of things, there is a divergence. there is a divergence between the nasdaq 100 and you know that tlt. there is a divergence inside internally in the s&p 500 between the top seven stocks and the rest of the market, so we are starting to see these huge gaps occur, and you have to ask yourself how are these gaps going to be closed and what is the propensity? and when you think about it, you know, 60% of the population is overextended and credit and the inflection point of delinquencies has started with foreclosures, bankruptcies,,

auto loans,, and credit card sticking up slowly, so when you think about the propensity of how those gaps close, it looks like more risk and credit. raterate we saw gold rebound on that strong u.s. data. what role does gold play as a portfolio diversifier in this environment? frances: well, yeah, the thing about gold of the thing about gold is it is when you have rates going down, so you know, those when you talk about correlations historically with gold and so gold is going to go up in anticipation of that so the perspective, it is funny because tech, it is negative correlation with rates broke down this year which was kind of interesting. i think tech became a safety play with the balance sheets and lots of cash on the balance sheets, so that is why i think there was a lot of interest in tech earlier this year. the credit risks, though the

spreads are quite tight, the more more risk in the system and i think gold will go ahead of that. it has a cap to fill at 170. ed may not fill that gap but it would not surprise me if it went down and felt that gap if we don't have anything for a few weeks or months, but the fed will continue to tighten. you look at the taylor rule and you know that put you sort of at seven,, seven on the terminal rate -- that is pretty high. i obviously don't think jerome powell is expecting that but they will remain tighter for longer to try to quell inflation, so that is the story on the table and until they break something else you know. they were able to shore up the banking crisis. you have $3 trillion outstanding in commercial real estate. $1.4 trillion in bad rolling

over in the next 18 months and a lot of corporate debt rolling over and there would just be some companies that have no revenues or cannot for whatever reason afford that you know, higher cost of capital. shery: so what is the next shoe to drop? frances: i don't know them but as you remove money from the system, you eventually had a threshold. haidi: how closely are you watching the energy space?\i found that sector to be interesting. it did so well last year, and this first half of the year has really been offset by the gains in ai and the optimism over tech again? frances: it is so true, but when you have a deceleration, it depends, i mean january had a good boom in consumerism, but year-over-year, growth is still in a decelerating environment and i think inflation will continue to decelerate. why do i say that about growth? you know ism manufacturing decelerated services is to well

if the peak, even though you have that. you have so many internal things that contribute to that that a decelerating, so then there are lagging effects with just like there are lagging effects with cpi. the thing that will keep cpi elevated even though it is decelerating is rent. housing is still so unaffordable that rents are still staying high, and that has about an 18-month lagging effect when the owners equivalent rent gets adjusted, so this is what you have, the fed will stamp on growth and they will stamp on growth to quell inflation until something in the system breaks where they can no longer justify stamping on growth. if you look at some of the projections from bridgewater, they are saying that profit still have to fall dramatically before we will mirror that 2% target inflation.

shery: good to have you back. you can get a round up of all these stories. terminal subscribers can customize your settings so you only get the news on industries and assets you care about. this is bloomberg. ♪

shery: elite u.s. colleges have been defending diversity after the supreme court effectively barred them from using brace as a factor in admissions. for more, let's bring in laura -- what has been the reaction so far from universities? laura: they have been pushing back against this decision. harvard came out with a statement very defiant saying they are committed to diversity and having a wide range of

students with a wide range of experiences and backgrounds on campus, but the practicality is that a lot of institutions have to go back to the drawing board on how they do their admissions process. they have a couple of months before they start accepting applications in the fall, but this will be a major overhaul at some top universities with acceptance rate where they get tens of thousands of applicants and only end up accepting a small percentage of them. haidi: what will be the impact when it comes to admissions. it essentially ends affirmative action, right? laura: the universities are not allowed to take race into consideration. the justices wrote they can take into account how race plays into a student's experience, so for example, instead of checking out a box that is student that's a particular race category, there will probably be more emphasis on angst like essays, students can talk about how the race,

background and ethnicity has formed them as a person, so it will be more complicated and it is different from how a lot of universities do their admissions right now. race is not a sole factor can -- but can be one factor and now head has to be much more below the surface as they figure out how to recruit a diverse student body. haidi: laura davidson in washington. we have much more to come. this is bloomberg. ♪ when i was his age, we had to be inside to watch live sports. but with xfinity, we get the fastest mobile service and can stream down the street or around the block. hey, can you be less sister, more car? all right, let's get this over with.

switch to xfinity mobile and get the best price for 2 lines of unlimited. just $30 a line per month. i should get paid more for this. you get paid when you win. from xfinity. home of the 10g network.

>> china is a set to release its

pmi data which will either add fuel to worries about its recovery or offer some hope that the economy is in better shape than investors feared. we have readings from the previous month which shows this diversions between the official manufacturing pmi print and the export oriented number from a central agency. most pmi gauges have also been below the 50 point threshold which separates growth from contraction. bloomberg economics expects a slump in june for the nonmanufacturing pmi and the only reading that has been above water all year sees a slight improvement in the manufacturing number, but not enough to get out of contraction territory. our next guest says investors have become too bearish on china's recovery and to bullish on the prospect of big stimulus. it's always great to have you with us. do we still have hope for that consumption driven recovery?

>> we do. what we see in china is that consumption is a lot better than where people expected it to be now. at the beginning of the year you had all sorts of forecasts about spending and so forth which were wildly unrealistic and it did not pan out on the ground and it was never going to. in the middle we have figured out that there are sequential improvement since dashing consumer activity which has gone unnoticed by markets. -- in consumer activity which is gone unnoticed. >> how well is doing this working, is it a problem of transmission mechanism or that people are not confident enough to actually go borrow and spend? >> it is the letter. what you see is four months interest rates have been declining. what you don't see is companies ramping up borrowing. i think you're in a state right now where businesses are becoming a little bit more confident than they were six months ago or so, but not at a

place where they want to ramp up borrowing and go on a hiring spree. >> what is the catalyst when it comes to boosting confidence and spirits. you talk about the corporate sector, businesses, factory and even household sectors? >> we need to establish that we don't get that old school cannon being fired at the economy and then a lot of stimulus coming down. that is not going to happen. i think what you get is a series of policies which try to ease credit further, you get more policies in the property sector to make it easier for households to go out there and start to purchase apartments again, perhaps even second homes and so forth. you get policies being treated the margins, but that is probably about it. >> it also comes at a time when we know, even pre-covid zero, that the chinese economy was headed into a. of sustained moderate growth is

this also a factor of the economy and its participants realizing that this is actually just the new normal of structurally slower growth in the longer term? >> i think that is right on. analysts and markets and general -- in general have been experiencing high loves the growth in china, and they think that when you don't grow you get a big bazooka estimate was. people on the ground are now realizing those years are gone. a lot of the market repricing needs to eventually reflect that. not being completely cabinet -- panicked but being prepared for a china which will grow much slower. >> how is the property market doing? >> it is looking a little bit better than it was earlier, but it is on very shaky ground. if you look at the june data, you are saying homebuilders complaining, realtors complaining about sales falling, prices going down, you are not

seeing much activity in starts. so the housing market is looking pretty lackluster. i think that is what we are going to get out of the property market in the months and years to come. >> let's talk about geopolitics and quantifying any improvement on that front because we saw secretary blinken with his trip to china and we are inspecting secretary yellen going to beijing. at the same time, there is so much talk about export restrictions against china. how do you quantify that economically when you're thinking how is that going to affect the chinese economy and outlook? >> i think you get a lot of cosmetic improvement, especially talk coming out of the administration in the u.s.. investors need to focus on the fact that china risk is rising across the board, whether it be risk emanating from the policies of the chinese government and the communist party as we saw with the recent for policy law or increasing amounts of

assertiveness out of congress that we are going to get here even if the administration has run out of things that it would like to be doing. >> do you see a change in tone from beijing when it comes to that regular toy crackdown we have had? >> i don't think so. if anything, it is becoming broader and more nuanced in many ways because laws are being put into place that's going to affect multiple industries, not just the technology industry, but very much means that the technology industry will remain -- remained under pressure as well. >> off the books that continues to swell and we knew this was going to be the case given how much debt accrued sustaining covid zero. how does the central government balance that at a time when the buffers for growth and stimulus are just so much less than before?

>> that is a real pickle in some ways because you can squeeze -- cannot squeeze local governments to hard at this time. we will see policy actions evolve over time, we have to remember that there is centralized control, and there is plenty of good money being thrown after bad. i don't think that era is over as a whole. that just maybe the solution for the foreseeable future. >> good to have it with us with the latest report from the china beige book, the managing director there. let's stay with china for morning calls because we also see signs of pessimism around local incomes and housing, more from hong kong with the details. this comes from a new pboc survey. >> that's right, we got this one out from the pboc and it is a gauge of urban depositors surveys and reading through that

it is about china reading the tea leaves on how consumers are feeling about prospects around income. what we actually saw around that latest sentiment index here is that it slipped further again so we are now at 49 point which tells us a lot of people in china are concerned about the outlook for their incomes and the latest survey results from the pboc indicate that around 1/6 of the respondents dropped from the reporting. as well. certainly not a good outlook. you can combine that with another survey which came out and showed us that the outlook around housing is continuing to deteriorate. we did see a pickup in terms of construction but when you take a look at the loan data, it tells us that chinese consumers are still not going out and purchasing properties as well. this really reinforces that concern about the outlwe did hee signals there from the china beige book, but a lot of

economists and analysts are bearish here. >> analysts still owing those forecasts when it comes to chinese equities. -- lowering those forecasts. >> morgan stanley, goldman sachs, cutting their growth earnings estimates leading them to reduce their expectations of where the china index will end at december. we want to take a look at their expectations around this saying that they will end the year and 72, and they had previously seen it at 83, quite a significant reduction. that implies where we are, around a 13% gain here from now until the end of the year but it really does reflect that deteriorating outlook for earnings and the optimism of the extent tatian's now being put on officials that we do need to see further stimulus and ubs says that is what their outlook for chinese stocks is hinging on.

>> tv includes some of the charts that she just went through, you can dive into some of the securities and the interviews that we had. you can join in the conversation with instant messages on our shows, that is for bloomberg subscribers only on tv . this is number. -- bloomberg.

i was told my small business wouldn't qualify for an erc tax refund. you should get a second opinion from innovation refunds at no upfront cost. sometimes you need a second opinion. [coughs] good to go. yeah, i think i'll get a second opinion. all these walls gotta go! ah ah ah! i'd love a second opinion. no. i'm going to get a second opinion. with innovation refunds, there's no upfront cost to find out. so why not check like i did for my small business? take the first step to see if your small business qualifies for the erc.

>> looking at stories making headlines right now, virgin galactic has reached a major milestone, taking six paying customers to the edge of space for the first time. the commercial debut of the vss unity brings virgin galactic into the realms of space tourism alongside spacex and blue origin. it came much later than planned, they had hoped to take tourists to space as early as 2008 but faced multiple delays and setbacks. air-quality alerts enforce all laws -- across large parts of the u.s. from iowa to maine as canadian wildfires billows out for another day. here are live pictures of new york city, air-quality rated unhealthy, as of 5:00 with that alert level continue to expect -- expected to continue into friday.

1200 flights were canceled due to the smoke. a new poll shows that russian support for peace talks with ukraine has grown after the wagner group led me to me, a survey by the independent nevada center shows that 53% of respondents backing negotiation's. that is an increase of eight percentage points from a month earlier. russia has accused ukraine of being unwilling to negotiate, kyiv says it will not consider talks until russian troops leave its territory. >> a trade deal between australia and the eu maybe delayed with the trade minister saying that the offer so far is not good enough. what are the sticking points? >> mostly around access. the trade minister says this does not have meaningful market access and it has to do with beef. different types of beef, gast -- grass fed or grain fed,

different cuts as well. it does get quite granular. but it does have to be resolved and the e.u. says it has used up a lot of capital giving generous concessions to canada and new zealand, and other countries as well. there are other sticking points also around geographical origins. things like naming feta cheese, percent go cheese as well, we know how proprietary companies can get. this is an emotional issue for australian farmers but it is still a significant one that will have to be resolved somehow. >> are there any time constraints? >> kind of. the date that everybody had in mind was july 11, which is when the australian prime minister will be in vilnius attending the nato summit and that will be a great time to get this done, having all the usual ceremonies, getting handshakes, photo opportunities and the rest.

we are in the in game now, and that timeframe is still realistic, but after that, the european election season begins, campaigning gets underway and it is going to make closing a deal a lot harder. dan farrell will be heading back to europe before july 11, a bit of an 11th hour thing, but he is not going to make a deal just for the sake of getting it done. >> be sure to turn -- tune into bloomberg to get in-depth analysis from the daybreak team, broadcasting live from our studio in hong kong. you can find us on the avenue of radio plus or bloombergradio.com. moorehead, this is number. -- much more ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪ ( ♪♪ ) ( ♪♪ )

-awww. -awww. -nope. ( ♪♪ ) constant contact delivers the marketing tools your small business needs to keep up, excel, and grow. constant contact. helping the small stand tall.

>> ukraine's ambassador to the u.s. has called for more support from allies in the counteroffensive against russia as european union leaders gather in brussels. we spoke to bloomberg in washington. >> we are in the imf program, and we concluded a productive visit with our visitor of 5 -- minister of finance to root -- washington dc. we still need a lot of support.

the budget is fully funded. we are discussing 2044 now. and that will require all of our friends and partners including all g7 countries to help us go through 2024 regardless of where we are on the battlefield and how fast we will win. there's no question in our mind that we will. thank you to the european union, for taking a lead in it, we look forward to discussing with our american colleagues what direct budget support in addition to security assistance we will be able to receive and other g7 partners. we look forward to doing everything on our own and getting back to business, getting back to recovery as soon as possible and become a self sustainable. right now, we still need, before we wait in front assistance on our friends and allies. >> i hear your message. we need help now, we will be ok later and the idea that we are united with the west. i can hear you say that over and

over. i am wondering then how the events that have unfolded in moscow help that case, how are you s on that in the narrative that you are spending right now? -- spending right now? >> what we saw is what we have been seeing there -- the entire time. it is a typical autocracy not based on the power of democracy. for the support of the people. -- for the support of the people. it is just based on a power grab and a struggle that the kremlin is waging when -- which they have done since 2014. but also in georgia and other places. i think after events on sunday, everybody has seen what we have been saying that there is no support, there is so much internal infighting and that if any country is a failed state it is not ukraine, as russia was

trying to convince everyone during the previous 30 years. it is action russia. we have to keep the focus. we have to double down on everything that we can do to liberate ukraine now to restore our territorial integrity and sovereignty. and all of us together, as a transatlantic family, will do whatever needs to be done in accordance -- in order to bring to justice those responsible but to also return to just lasting peace so that we can address the security challenges. and ukraine, after victory, would be a very important element and solution to all of this. >> the ukraine ambassador to the u.s. there. let's get you caught up with some of the corporate stories. citadel securities is wrapping up but it's -- ramping up its presence. it plans to increase bond

offerings by the end of the year and go live for more platforms, including bloomberg, as soon as possible, and it generated $7.5 billion in revenue last year. shares falling in late trade after posted earnings for nike, even as sales beat. they were expected to have -- their earnings fell before forecast in the greater china region improved. $8 billion top projections. a fast fashion retailer in china has denied a report that it is seeking an ipo in new york. the company confidentially submitted its registration with the sec, allegedly, and a debut is possible for the year-end. a spokesperson has dismissed the story as a rumor, and they are facing scrutiny over labor practices in the u.s.. >> goldman sachs has lost its

ranking as the top m&a advisor for the first time in five years. its rival jp morgan is now the top dealmaker globally and we have more on this story. what happened. >> is a big -- sore subject, but now that jp morgan is at the top it is going down well for them but not for goldman sachs. the last time they lost the spot was in but by the end of the year goldman had gotten that spot back again. that is one caveat we should note at the beginning of talking about this. this is only halfway through the year. i get, 20 18th was the last time that goldman was not on top for a six month. -- six stretch of time. a lot of bankers have been left -- let go because of the ordeal in the industry. three rounds within one year of layoffs.

there is pressure inside goldman in particular and it's all over the street because it affects the top and bottom lines. and and you hear conference call about -- after conference call about how dealmaking should be picking up but it isn't. volume has fallen 42% this year, it is a 1.3 trillion dollar figure right now, bear in mind to put it into context, there is one point $5 trillion in unspent funds looking for homes and deals. obviously the environment is just not conducive at the moment and when deal volume falls it rapidly affects the banks and shareholders. >> jp morgan wants to clinch pole position over goldman sachs, do we see any other latecomers? >> one of the top spots is taken by centerview, jumping to fifth ahead of ubs and citibank, and

then guggenheim jumped up 48 spots, now up to number nine. that was primarily due to the biggest deal of the year, the pfizer takeover of a cancer drug maker, a $43 billion deal, benefiting both of those boutique investment banks and 90 of other banks. that is also part of the problem. we are not saying making deals. after that $43 billion deal, the next largest was a $19 billion deal and there have only been hdls between 10 and $19 billion in size in the u.s. this year. that will tell you that banks need a return of the megadeal in order to jump on board and get a piece of the pie. >> vonnie quinn there. staying on banks with sherry we do stake -- take stock and at least reflect upon the six months prior. one thing to watch out for in austria late is how the big lenders perform in the second half. bloomberg intelligence says they see strong returns persisting in the second half of the year,

better returns and profit versus a year earlier despite growing headwinds in that part of the space when it comes to how mortgages perform in lending competitions, credit costs are normalizing as we see from the rba's and rate hikes as well as a slowdown in low growth as recession list -- risk stolen. -- risks still loom. energy stocks in australia have actually rallied 20% in the second quarter, still a vast outperformance of its peers in the u.s. and asia and they are added to the ai driven momentum, in the sector that we have seen very globally. we have also seen in australian that rotation from financiers into tech firms which has helped information-technology indexes to see their best three months since december 2020. >> we are also looking at emerging markets and it is interesting because i am watching the stock space. we had half of emergent stocks

doing not too bad given the other performance we have seen, getting more than 3% or so. it does not compared to the s&p 500, 15% jump, but in the bond space we are talking about a rally in the first half, the best start to a year in four. it has been supported by currencies which have fared well, and we are talking about the mexican peso, the brazilian real, and morgan stanley and asked the top trades include local unhedged bonds in korea thailand and brazil. and mexico. >> that is it for deborah kostroun about we have daybreak asia next, stick around. this is bloomberg. -- daybreak eestnet -- this is bloomberg.

hi, i'm jason and i've lost 202 pounds on golo. so the first time i ever seen a golo advertisement, i said, "yeah, whatever. there's no way this works like this." and threw it to the side. a couple weeks later, i seen it again after getting not so pleasant news from my physician. i was 424 pounds, and my doctor was recommending weight loss surgery. to avoid the surgery, i had to make a change. so i decided to go with golo and it's changed my life. when i first started golo and taking release, my cravings, they went away.

and i was so surprised. you feel that your body is working and functioning the way it should be and you feel energized. golo has improved my life in so many ways. i'm able to stand and actually make dinner. i'm able to clean my house. i'm able to do just simple tasks that a lot of people call simple, but when you're extremely heavy they're not so simple. golo is real and when you take release and follow the plan, it works. it's an amazing thing

when you show generosity of spirit to someone. and you want people to be saved and to have a better life, then you don't stop. we have been able to reach over 100 million people impacted and affected, and at risk of hiv. the rocket fund takes all of the work that we're doing, all over the world, and looks at the most effective ways, to get resources to them, to get services to them. the idea that we have saved five million people's lives, it's overwhelming. it's everything.