rishaad: this is daybreak asia

live from sydney and hong kong. >> we are counting down to the major market opens. >> asian stocks lower with investors waiting for fresh data on china's recovery and oil gaining on the latest saudi-russian supply cuts. the eu says it is postponing a visit to china as beijing's curbs threatens its green goals. airbus expanding its chinese assembly plant. >> one hour from the opens. watching u.s. futures coming online in the past hour, looking subdued, but coming off the independence holiday tuesday, so thinner trading volumes. the session today goes back to the broader theme as to whether

those gains in the first half of the year largely around the optimism around ai and the u.s. economy holding up better than expected and expectations of stimulus from china are positive factors that helped global index but the question is whether that can be sustained in the second half given that recessionary winds are being felt more and there is the prospect up with their tightening from global central banks. so this at the state of plate when we look at u.s. futures, range bound given markets were shut tuesday for the public holiday, but the bigger move into crude approaching $71 a barrel and investors/traders waiting those cuts. let's as i said approaching the opens of major markets today in asia looking tilted to the downside but range bound given

the holiday and thinner trading volumes. watching the currency space, the aussie dollar drifting lower following the rba decision and looking at that japanese yen approaching once again the 1.45 mark. heidi. heidi: let's get market analysis with mark. what are you watching out for today in the trading action? mark: today if we get any excitement it will come in the currency space. the china central bank pboc has had success with strong fixings for the rishaad: yuan getting a little traction but seeing dollar-yuan around that level which is an improvement from what we were seeing last week so you probably will not see him -- them relax. we can expect the fixing to be set well below traders estimates

to make sure that everyone gets the message that the chinese interbank has run out of patience and would like to see a stronger yuan. they will know by the middle of july the big tax payments made by chinese onshore companies would drain some of the money out of the money markets and lift short-term interest rates and help to support the yuan as well so if they can get to the next couple of weeks without too much weakness in the yuan that will give them a period where they can relax and let the market work, but you can expect a the next couple of sessions leads that yes, the yuan is weak but we do not wanted to go further yet. rishaad: we just got pmi data out of australia weaker than the main numbers. what is going to really get these markets in this part of the world going, if china and people fixated by this uneven generally even now slow down taking place in the country? mark: yeah a lot of investors

would like to see more coming out from china in terms of stimulus, but -- to a certain extent. they have to sort out the property sector and the tech sector as well. the government has put in some money but they're trying to sort out local businesses with the sme's a hangover as well. the global economy is moving ahead but not as fast to china was like with some weakness in europe so all in all the chinese authorities can only move forward to a certain extent and they do rely on what is happening in the rest of the world as well in the picture is ok but not fantastic. the central bank have also eased policy a couple of times already but rates are already low in china compared to some other parts of the world so they just have to play it out and try to boost the domestic economy as much as they can to make sure the consumer continues to spend

and that will give them more time to see things stabilize. for the time being, it is one step forward, one step back situation but in terms of getting foreigners into the market, they have some ideas to get foreigners into the repo market in the bond space that will help as well to try to make company earnings look a little bit more attractive but it will be hard work and investors have lost a lot of faith in china and would like to see a bigger government stimulus, but might not get one in the short term. haidi: how long lasting do you think this oil rally would be? mark: oil will not go anywhere. it is drifting between $70 and $80. people can't get too optimistic on that. there is too much supply. you can see the global demand is not high as needed to get oil to

$100 a barrel so it would drift around. the saudis said they would cut output in russia may be helping but russia needs to produce plenty of oil to support what they are doing in ukraine. you have a back and forth situation in the oil market and there is no reason to get bullish on oil until you can see the global demand is stronger than it is and that is not the case so we will probably drift between $70 and $80 a barrel for quite some time yet. rishaad: yeah. those are the prices per barrel. thanks, mark. singapore. more on this story and the day's trading on our blog on the bloomberg terminal. you can get a market run down in one click and commentary and analysis from bloomberg's expert editors and find out what has been affecting her money. the eu says beijing has

postponed next week's planned visit by its top diplomat and stephen engle is in beijing and why? that is the question. what do we know? [inaudible] >> you had to ask me that question. i did not know quite and there was no reason given why they canceled or postponed the visit due to begin on monday by the top foreign affairs official in the eu, joseph burrell, and again the european union officials saying he was due to meet with his counterpart, the foreign minister, in beijing and they were going to talk about strategic issues and export controls as well as the war in ukraine and other issues as beijing is trying to persuade europe to take a less hawkish stance than the u.s. on some of these issues. and of course there are divisions in the eu block how to respond to moscow and beijing

and the efforts by the united states to win support for these -- win support for these export controls but no reason given for why it was postponed and it is interesting because there has been a diplomatic bonanza, if you want to call it that, between china and western officials because you had antony blinken, tomorrow janet yellen leaving washington to come to beijing for we can talks, so are the europeans being sidelined now? it could be many different reasons, rish, but we can speculate other than it has been postponed according to eq officials. haidi:haidi: there is a concern that that decision to restrict critical mineral exports could have pretty negative impacts for europe's climate change targets. stephen: absolutely. this was the story we were

reporting yesterday. boyd did my twitter feed blow up. a lot of people are going here we go china is retaliating with their own export controls on these are two so-called minor metals, gallium and germanium, used in a major way in key technology products, compound semiconductors, but also key technologies that are critical for the pursuit of carbon zero goals the eu has put in place with its green deal to reach carbon neutrality by essentially 2050 and these export controls a take effect august 1 out of beijing could impact that goal. it kind of put your expect in the situation of reassessing the same position they are in with china coming so fresh off the same kind of decision-making they have to do with russia. now it is apples and oranges really because russia invaded ukraine. very different but the united states obviously is trying to

enlist european support for these export controls whether it is asml the dutch equipment maker for chips and export to china and others and there are divisions within the block on how to deal with china because so much of the exports from europe go to china, that bet is also something that needed to be talked about between joseph burrell and the chinese leadership but again this does put into question some of the screen target goals that the europeans have if they're going to be restricting in china will be restricting the export of two critical ingredients and also begs the question where are they going to fill the demand if they will not be able to get those quotas from china, if they block the licensed approach from the exports from china? so do you go, you can't go to russia, really, right? russia is the second-biggest producer after china about gallium and germanium so that is off the table but you have to look to belgium for germanium in

japan and south korea for gallium. there are alternates but again because china was such a cheap supplier, the whole world went to china for the sources and it is an expensive extraction process to get these two metals, so it will not happen overnight to diversify the supply chain. haidi: our chief north asia correspondent stephen engle in beijing. some other headlines. the greek prime minister says his country will repay two years of bailout loans ahead of schedule and it has already repaid funds to the imf and has started early repayment on bilateral loans from european countries. he told bloomberg exclusively he wants to refrain greece's investment rating this year. >> we will be april before the end of the year to actually repay ahead of time our facility for the next two years and this will also send a faster signal to the markets that not only are

we focused on growth but we also want to make sure our jet to ddp ratio continues to decline at a very rapid pace. haidi: abu dhabi and another entity set to be intoxicated chemicals giant for $30 billion, discussing merging borealis and a partnership between two other entities. the move would fit into a wider plan but did you a to attract investment and build -- united arab emirates to attract new investment and build new facilities. the indonesian president has secured investment as he wraps up his first visit to australia in three years. joko widodo discussed cooperation with the australian prime minister. business visas will be extended from three to five years and it also calls for joint production

of ev batteries. airbus is urging chinese airlines to place orders for its biggest planes because huge purchases by other carriers are extending wait times in the post-covid travel boom. airbus china ceo spoke exclusively to us from their factory in china. >> we have uh um tried to accelerate this discussion with our chinese operator-customers to listen, to have a more far vision, and to try to place the order as quick as possible. this is clearly something we need to do together with our customers, not -- with this current uh gap between demand and supply. rishaad: it is addressing that demand and supply equation, as we have a look at what is perhaps next for the asian

travel industry. our guest joins us telling us how supply shortages in aircraft and aviation manpower is resulting in a higher cost environment. first, here why the u.s. dollar could be back in favor and safety and parity trades. we discussed that next with our guest from singapore. this is bloomberg. ♪

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this is just exemplifying the divergence of interest rate policy around the world for the rest of the year. inflation, the ecb, the federal reserve, keeping them in tightening manuel telling central banks around the world forging their own path. what does that bring to the table? haidi: let's get some views from a market strategist. you know, as we get into the endgame if you will, obviously the risk of policy air is higher in markets are trying to work out how pricing works. what are you recommending into this period? charu: good morning. our sense is the u.s. economic data has been more resilient than expected to be and we think that will continue so our senses

that will continue to fuel inflationary pressures along with this fragmentation playing out globally and as we continue to see restrictions on export of chips to china and now china is retaliating but this is a phenomenon certainly not just limited to chips but keep global commodities like oil, and with the russian invasion of ukraine as well, so all of these supply chain demand next has to be readjusted for the world and this brings inflationary pressures. we are inclined to think the risk of policy air for the fed would be on tightening -- e rror would be on tightening for the fed. so we do expect those hawkish shifts in bed expectations are

still to come markets. haidi: how much further upside is priced into the japan bradley now? charu: that is a great -- rally now? charu: that is a great question. i think they are just getting started. one estimate is $43 billion of inflows into japanese markets this year but there is the potential for $70 billion more to come in. most of the investment houses are focusing for the japan economy from -- to neutral, and that is driving a lot of interest in japan but i think there is also an opportunity for japan to play the bigger role in manufacturing once again and that comes from the historical dominance in the industry. they have a lot of experience

with artificial intelligence as well and they are spending quite a bit attracting manufacturers to come back to japan and establish their chip manufacturing in japan, so there is a lot of potential there that is still untapped, and i think the whole corporate reforms phenomenon has also just started picking up and they are just starting building, so potentially there is more runway in the outperformance of japanese equities. rishaad: the thing is yes, obviously we have that case right now that there does seem to be a seachange happening in japan in terms of corporate governance and the like, however when you look at what is going on with the boj, the bank of japan here and so much pressure to abandon yield curve control, how do they get out of this? because it is something where markets will be position for it and make a out of in something

that could really really royal what is happening with japanese assets? charu: absolutely. that is one big risk we continue to watch for japanese markets. the pressure on the bank of japan is likely to continue to build given the treasury yields and we expect more inflation pressures in markets to price and those near-term rate hikes from the fed, meaning the gap between the treasury yields in the japanese yields continues to widen, which is a huge pressure on the japanese yen. i think the last few days there have also been talks about the japanese authorities considering a coordinated intervention into the japanese yen so that they have been in talks with the u.s. and other countries as well to do that intervention and i think that can bring out some longer-lasting effect on the yen, a little bit more strengthening on the yen, which

could last. -- a unilateral intervention, which usually has a temporary effect, that that is key, but if the bank of japan is forced into some kind of action, that is just a --, not just japanese assets but the liquidity that we would see would be a seachange for global assets as well. rishaad: very quickly, you have a currency which is weak and economic fundamentals continuing to strengthen. i'm going to go away from the rates differential story but then you have a chinese currency which is perhaps reflective of what is happening with economic fundamentals, so what is your take? charu: the chinese economy is totally on a different path right now and that has truly been reflected in their currency as well, but i think the other factor is that for the chinese

authorities to ease policy expectations, it is far more prominent than for the bejeweled j -- boj policies that there is a risks of that again adds on to the pressure on the chinese yuan as well but of course chinese authorities ought to be on alert given the fixing measures we have seen over the last few weeks and they will continue to tolerate it as long as this depreciation of the yuan and, te intervention risks only arise if the pace is quick enough.on theo much risk has already been priced in for the chinese markets as such, and if we see a turnaround in the sentiment with these stimulus measures that are coming in, if we see an improvement coming through in the economic indicators, i would say it is a very very early

indication that things are starting to look a little bit up for the chinese economy, and if that plays out, the pressure on the yuan could come off as well. rishaad: thank you. if you want a round out that these -- roundup of these stories you need to get your day going, have a look at today's version of daybreak. television subscribers can go to -- on the terminal, and also on mobile in the bloomberg anywhere app, settings for the industries and assets you care about. this is bloomberg. ♪ a third kid. what if she likes playing golf? it's expensive. we're outlawing golf. wait. can i still play? since we work with emower, we don't have to worry about planning for a third kid. you can still play golf... sometimes. take control of your financial future to empower what's next.

haidi: some transportation

stories we are watching. tesla increasing 20% in june helping to lift sales to record levels. data showed the u.s. ev makers shipped more than 90 3000 cars from its shanghai factory last month. the company's sales have benefited from price cuts forcing others to follow proceed. byd investing brazil, building a production complex for so... i know you and george were struggling with the possibility of having to move. how's that going? we found a way to make bathing safer with a kohler walk-in bath. a kohler walk-in bath provides a secure, spa-like bathing experience in the comfort of your own home. a kohler walk-in bath has one of the lowest step-ins of any walk-in bath for easy entry and exit. it features textured surfaces, convenient handrails for more stability, and a wide door for easier mobility. kohler® walk-in baths include two hydrotherapies—

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haidi: bankers at credit suisse are being told to dust off the resumes ahead of the takeover by ubs. our reporter joins us now.

good news? >> yes. the top ranks will be dominated by ubs people but this is signal to credit suisse step they can get some of those management roles. this is just saying to them dust off your resumes and as we go through the selection process we want to make sure you are updating your resumes, highlighting skills, and how open you are to mobility. they have been asked to do that by july 13, but more than half of the workforce will be cut of credit suisse. haidi: how does that play out in asia. >> asia is one area that will be spared from deep cuts in private wealth. credit suisse will retain a few hundred of their private wealth bankers in this merged entity putting ubs ahead of their big

rivals in the area. in australia and india, it will give the bank a presence that they did not have before. rishaad: ok you know i mean we have the announcement of huge numbers of staff cuts. do you know what is likely to be announced in the days and weeks ahead? >> in the next week or so we should find out about the leadership roles, the next level of leadership roles, and that will kick off a slew of appointments to junior ranks in global wealth management, and then were expecting by mid july that we should have more clarity on 1200 to 1500 employees, in the rest will follow in the next two months after that. rishaad: our bloomberg finance reporter. let's look at markets across the trading day. it is hump day here. >> thanks.

half an hour until the opens for sydney, seoul, korea, and tokyo. we are pointing lower but these are fairly small moves in perspective. the nikkei futures contract and singapore starting trading, pointing to a drop of half a percent. the key catalysts in the session, a little data on the docket today in terms of pmi readings, specifically the private survey from china and seeing whether that matched the gauge that came through last week when we saw the manufacturing reading coming in at 50.5. the question is whether the private surveys are reflect truly other truly other truly other the country. china, focus on the offshore yuan in the session this morning, seeing pboc setting stronger-than-expected fixing, so something we are watching closely. currencies perhaps a bigger focus.

haidi: yes. certainly. turning to another story out of japan we are watching the united nations nuclear watchdog says the country will release water from the site is within regulations. they have officially given their blessing to the release. what happens now? isabel: right. yesterday was a momentous day for this. since the nuclear accident in 2011, japan has been accumulating this water used for curling the plant and develop this plan to release it into the ocean over a period of decades after making sure it is safely treated. so they brought rate in to do the study into whether it will be effective and whether it will affect the firemen. they said clearly it will not affect the varmint and it would

be safe. they will open an office at fukushima and monitor the process as it goes on. the latest this morning is that the release could start as soon as next month in august. we don't have firm confirmation of that but the government has been saying all along it will start this summer. so we are just waiting for further conversation but before that we will see a lot more diplomatic moves with japan seeking to bring the rest of the region on board with this idea, which is not popular with some of its neighbors. rishaad: beijing is really angry about this in many ways and they expect to regret this decision. what is the reaction of the other neighbors? isabel: yes. china has been the harshest reaction: the idea as if it is

treating the ocean -- calling the idea as if it's treating the ocean as his public sewer. ties with japan and south korea have been warning over the past several months so i don't think the government will want to come out with the harsh response, but the general public is externally concerned about this, how the leadership can reconcile those in a way that will not alienate the public or japan. rishaad: thank you. isabel reynolds, bloomberg politics reporter from tokyo. coming up, as post-pandemic travel picks up air are struggling to meet demand, facing shortages with aircraft and manpower. we will be joined by guests showing their outlook for the industry next. you are with bloomberg. ♪

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rishaad: airbus says it is working on a new wing design that can fly more sustainably. it says it will be longer and more slender with folding wingtips, like the latest triple seven from boeing, trying to get more fuel savings and improve

the company's footprint, planning to roll out carbon aircraft in the next decade. haidi: airbus is urging chinese airlines to place their orders for the biggest airplanes as soon as possible as production slots are apparently filling up in the post-covid travel boom and it is planning to double production at its facility that builds jets. we got a look with the airbus china ceo. >> it is our target and focused on the single aisle aircraft. we see a very strong demand. the global backlog represents 60% of the family backlog. this is why starting from last year we added capacity in line

one and in line two, we will have flexibility to produce both. and for the other aircraft, we have a huge strategic cooperation with another entity, and we also will do the industrial ramp-up in line with the hope that a 220 program -- >> you talk with big carriers and china all the time. what are they telling you they want? the a2 20 or something they could use that is a little smaller than the 320 or 321? what kind of demand are you expecting? >> 220 is an excellent aircraft with a market niche in china. we have approached some of the chinese airlines that have an interest in the 222 replace the

existing small aircraft, ok? and um um i i think that especially taking into consideration that the earliest -- for that to be available as 2029. >> yep>>. >> may be the 220 could be a solution for some chinese airlines if they want to place an order for earlier slots. >> right. so those slots are filling up as airlines obviously there is talk even there might be an order bubble right now, but also those slots for airbus are filling up for the wide-body from the indian and middle east carriers. is there any concern you are getting from the main carriers here in china that they better get their orders for wide-body aircraft in sooner than later

because of slots are filling up? >> the first thing we discussed with the chinese lowlands -- airlines and stakeholders is really availability is evolving very quickly. we have tried to accelerate this discussion with our chinese operator-customers to let them to have more far vision and try to place the order as quick as possible. this is clearly something we need to do together with our customers in order to cope with this current big gap between demand and supply. >> every manufacturer and industry really, it is going to be impacted somehow by these export controls from the united states. you probably are as well. say for example in your innovation center you have a high software that might have

u.s. software is this something -- ai software that might have u.s. software, is it something that will be impacting you? >> as an international company we have to make sure we are 100% client with u.s. export regulations, europe export regulations, and china export regulations. this is why we put export control on the radar screen and why starting from last year we set up a small but strong export control team inside airbus china to work together with airbus at quarter -- headquarters to make sure everything is very much in compliance with all the regulatory requirements and constraints. rishaad: uh airbus china ceo speaking exclusively to stephen engle. to discuss the travel industry and its outlook we are joined by

the hedge of asia consultancy at -- thank you for joining us. you heard what he had to say. we are not at pre-pandemic levels yet for the aviation industry in terms of capacity and indeed, aircraft usage, most in possession of these carriers. is it just the way of pressurizing these companies order more? joanna well um yeah the overall capacity has return to pre-pandemic levels and overall his back but was largely driven by the middle east region to asia, but -- from europe to asia is running 20% down compared to pre-pandemic level and u.s.-asia is down still but currently stabilize. but also don't forget that we

have a large domestic market and asia-pacific -- and asia-pacific region, that that is perhaps one of our biggest important reason as well for the manufacturers to look at opportunities in this market. rishaad: so, after the pandemic, how have travel patterns, air travel patterns by people changed, if at all? what are you seeing? joanna: the overall number of destinations and being a more diversified as the ebitda destinations --apac destinations are slow to return and we are seeing people are spending more time planning their journeys and making sure they are covered for unexpected changes. tourists are keen to stay longer when they do travel and travelers may spend more in combine long-haul work and

leisure travel and trips by taking those trips, so there is a bit between the leisure and work travel. haidi: our prices now just structurally higher -- our prices now structurally higher? what could bring them down in a higher environment? joanna: yeah the big reason for that is the airlines challenges airlines are facing, shortage of components, manpower, and the overall higher cost environment, making them careful in launching new services. the price might be structurally still higher due to the overall high cost environment and the inflation environment is so i believe in the short term period it will be struggling

higher, but airlines are looking to diversify destinations to match the demand, so that might be the potential solution. haidi: how is the return of china post-covid zero inbound and outbound? joanna: -- capacity from china still lags with 50% down and see terms compared to pre-pandemic levels, and the big reason is the u.s. is one of the largest long-haul markets and is still lagging, currently 80% down, but if we look at top destinations for china, their mainly short-hauls and coding hong kong, japan, south korea, hong kong, and tylan. none of these markets -- thailand. none of these markets have recovered to those pre-covered levels. the data shows a 75% increase in

capacity departing from china in q3 this year compared to q2. it will be interesting to watch the development. rishaad: we have seen massive airplane orders from air india and others in the country. what is your take on the indian aviation industry with these record orders in some cases? does this represent perhaps getting ahead of themselves, or at does mirror the progress india is making economically speaking? joanna: yeah eh if we look at the asia-pacific region, obviously china was the largest outbound market from this region to the rest of the world, but now because the international travel from china, although it has overall open, but the

overall capacity is still lacking. um, india has took the chance to develop the capacity from there, and overall, india has become the largest market in the asia-pacific region. i believe airlines from the indian markets are looking at the new opportunities so that is perhaps why they have been aggressively ordering aircraft and trying to back up more capacities. haidi: really great to have you with us. you can watch us live and catch up on interviews with our interactive tv function and dive into any of the securities or bloomberg functions you can join about and join the conversation and send us as it is during our

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rishaad: uh let's have a look at some of those tech stories we are tracking for you. we have this energy start up backed by catl said to be

considering fundraising and evaluation as high as $830 million. sources tell us another entity is in talks with them to raise $83 million,, the story gaining interest as energy storage systems push towards green energy. sources say alibaba is looking at video streaming platform reviews and one option under consideration is to inject the assets into alibaba pictures to bolster its scope. the chinese tech giant is planning that major restructuring of listed companies. rakuten listing as it seeks to dispel concerns over debt levels on profitability. the online retailer's move is

supposed to speed up decision-making at its businesses. it's shares have tumbled to a 14-year low as it drains cash ahead of a wall of maturing debt. haidi: this is the picture as we are a couple of debts or eight minutes from the start of cash trading at major markets across asia. we are seeing downside as sentiment struggles to find its footing with sydney futures off, still processing this hawkish hold from the rba, putting the currency on the back foot, even though we saw a resurgence for commodity currencies. kiwi stocks flat. chicago nikkei futures seeing significant downside of 1.3% as we watch for the china pmi numbers to gauge the outlook when it comes to what we have seen as the climbing sentiment on the chinese economy. uh also we are watching this,

and that is quite challenging for me to talk about this from sydney in the middle of winter and it has been cold and wet this week but monday this week was actually the hottest day globally ever and it really underscores the challenges when it comes to decarbonization. you were talking about earlier. local temperatures hitting a record on monday. the average worldwide temperature was 17 degrees celsius just above the previous record of 16.9 degrees celsius reached in august 2016. this comes as the united nations has officially declared el niño has begun. rishaad: well absolutely, that is the thing, and sitting where you are, the temperature is 14 degrees celsius, so you could do without warrant, but it was a scorcher in hong kong and monday, then the rain came. we have a scorching heat wave in china now. we have record temperatures in

beijing. of course let's not forget in india we had extreme heat as well just before the monsoon arrived and a dangerous heat down covering texas and north mexico -- new mexico as well, and the u.k. had its hottest ever june. there you go. haidi: just to add to those w oes. one institute says this is a death sentence for people and ecosystems and warns this will not be the hottest day for a long time and they are expecting el niño to break more records this year. uh as we head into the start of trading here in asia, we are watching korea, japan and astray opening in five minutes. ev makers could see active trading as tesla's china output increased 20% in june. those are the ones to watch. also those in the supply chain,

panasonic, lg energy solution in others and focus -- and others in focus. don't miss our coverage of the global financial forum in hong kong as the city tries to reestablish its credentials as a business hub. we were there and be speaking with those there. the market opens are next. this is bloomberg. ♪

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