haidi: a very good morning and welcome to "bloomberg daybreak: australia."

we are counting down to asia's major market opens. shery: the top stories. the u.s. stock rally resumes as janet yellen tells bloomberg she does not expect a recession despite china's struggling recovery. haidi: also ahead, evergrande reveals losses top $80 billion. shery: ceo's of the biggest chipmakers visit the white house to raise restrictions on dealings with china. take a look at how u.s. futures are coming online. downside pressure as we saw stocks gained ground in the regular session after we saw some renewed speculation that a fed rate hike this month might have to be the last one in this tightening cycle given the disappointing economic data we got from china. secretary yellen talked about the spillovers from the weak

chinese economy but she also does not believe there will be a recession in the u.s. we have more calls about a potential soft landing being possible from the likes of goldman sachs and others. renewed optimism. treasuries in ground with a 10 year yield falling to the 380 level. we saw global bonds rallying today and adding to the gains we saw last week. best week when it comes to global bonds this year already. oil prices holding steady. downside pressure because we heard of libyan supplies being restarted and a weak economic data coming from china giving rise to concerns about demand for oil. after hours we are following microsoft and activision. both are gaining ground in the regular session after we heard that microsoft held productive talks with british regulators about the tie up after the

market closed we heard from sources telling us that the deal still might take longer than planned. haidi: take a look at how we are shaping up when it comes to the asian start to the trading session. this is australian futures. on the back foot, 0.3% softer. more resilience when it comes to the aussie dollar. fluctuating in the overnight session. a narrow range against g10 counterparts. we did see overall in the session the aussie and kiwi dollars leading losses on the back of being traded as risk proxy for china slow down after the disappointing domestic numbers coming out yesterday as well as the downgrades we saw from several major banks for the chinese economy. new zealand stocks flat at the moment. we expect inflation to slow significantly as consecutive rate hikes begin to take their

toll. consumer prices looking like they will rise. that is just one of the inflation readings we are watching out of asia this week. and also watching when it comes to the yen. barclays saying that yen went to 2% weaker. a lot of talk now as to what the central bank could do given some significant changes when it comes to the global outlook especially when it comes to china. shery: the concerns about the spillover given the chinese economic recovery was not as pronounced as expected has been big. we heard from secretary yellen that she expects the spillovers from china's slow down in the risks but she does not see a recession in the u.s. which sat well with investors. she sees the u.s. on what she calls a good path without a

major weakening in the labor market. you're getting calls also from others in the markets. jp morgan saying -- seeing a moderately wider path to a soft landing in the u.s. and goldman sachs further cutting the recession probability. there is a little more optimism that the u.s. will be able to hang in there despite the fact that china has not been doing as well as expected. haidi: this is the wildcard. in previous times of economic weakness globally china has always been countercyclical. we are seeing further signs of the economic deterioration despite in yesterday's numbers the consumer at the top levels still looking ok. looking at what wall street is seeing, seeing cuts to the china growth forecast when it comes to morgan stanley and other banks seeing growth of about 5%.

the growth target is in jeopardy. we are also seeing signs that the stimulus forthcoming will be smaller and more muted than during previous periods. as well as the productivity of stimulus from china has become weaker and weaker as we are seeing with multiple rounds over the last few years. citi is lowering the forecast saying the official target set at five person -- set at 5% is now at risk. shery: let's hear directly from the treasury secretary, janet yellen to hear what she had to say about the chinese economy, the spillover and what happens in the u.s. she spoke exclusively with bloomberg pb from the sidelines of the g20 meeting in india. secretary yellen: the u.s. growth has slowed but our labor market continues to be quite

strong. i do not expect a recession. i think we are on a good path to bringing inflation down. the most recent inflation data were quite encouraging. we are making progress on getting inflation down. but as i had hoped and expected that would occur in the context of a strong labor market and we continue to see that. the labor market has been strong and that fact has encouraged more crime age people to enter -- prime age people to enter the workforce which has taken some heat out of the labor market. the fact that growth overall has slowed after we enjoyed a rapid recovery, that is normal, but it has also led to some reduction

in the desire of firms to higher. there are still a lot of job openings. wage growth is moderating. and inflation is subsiding. i think we are on a good path. >> it sounds like soft landing is your base case and you don't think we will crs session. yesterday you talked about de-escalation with china and you will ruled out lifting tariffs as part of the de-escalation with beijing. what is on the table? >> on tariffs, you know, we put tariffs in place on china because we had underlying concerns about unfair trade practices particularly those affecting intellectual property and technology transfer. and those concerns have not been addressed. we are undergoing a four year

required review with tariffs and also china retaliated putting tariffs in place on us. we have to see what comes out of the four year review but i would emphasize that really the underlying concerns we have have not yet been addressed and we need to work on that going forward. haidi: treasury secretary janet yellen speaking exclusively to bloomberg. our next guest says there could be a recession avoided. laila pence is the president of pence wealth management. a soft landing is still plausible. how does the china wildcard fit into that outlook? laila: as yellen just said, it

actually will slow down inflation which is another reason why we think the fed has one more interest rate increase and then that is its. that is why the market is finally seeing the end of interest rate hikes and we have become a lot more ullage in the markets -- bullish in the markets consequently. haidi: how would you be positioning given there is still uncertainty as to what the fed's trajectory looks like? and whether the data points on inflation makes for a broader trend. laila: we really like payments but we think that is an area where inflation actually helps. the fact that people are working, they have more money, there is excess savings, i just got back from europe. the payments they have are very low, low overhead because they do not have as many employees.

we also like banks. the net interest income is going to start showing up. we have already had a couple of earnings and they were pretty good and we think we will have other good earnings this week. we really like those areas quite a bit right now. haidi: we have seen some interesting moves when it comes to the u.s. dollar -- has the trend been broken? laila: finally. the first time we have seen the dollar weakening. the market is seeing the end of interest rate hikes. bonds did well today. interest rates on bonds went down. the dollar is weakening which will help earnings that much more. this is something we are looking forward to having more of -- the dollar reduction. shery: do you focus more on u.s.

exporters that are more exposed? to currency risks? ? laila: not necessarily. we are focused on companies that will do well regardless but it helps to have a dollar reduction. as you know, 56% of the s&p is involved in some sort of international trade. we think the costs -- the dollar going down will make the products a lot more attractive which is bullish for the market. we think that is one of the reasons why the market has been rebounding so well. haidi: you also like payments companies. why? laila: we think payments whether they are digital or physical are really a good place to be. people are charging and the more money they charge, with inflation it costs more and the fees are higher and it does not

cost any more money to have these payment companies do that and people are spending. you cannot get on an airplane right now and hotels are booked. retail is still a little softer. there is still so much spending going on and they are the biggest benefactor of that. inflation is helped by that. we still see some inflation and so, those companies are raking in the funds. shery: for this earnings season the expectation is a 9% drop in profits for s&p 500 firms. what will you be watching from the guidance from these ceos? laila: we are watching how they guiding. wall street definitely got it wrong when they downgraded all of these earnings at the beginning of year. we -- there will be winners and losers. we have to watch not just the

earnings but what they forecast. the market does not care about what happened but they care about what will be forecasted by them. we think things are turning around. these people that thought we were going to have a recession, we don't think so and we think we will have a soft landing. inflation is coming down. and finally we will see the fed stopped raising rates after july. shery: how big a threat is the oil price scenario? we saw it dropping with the production from libya and the disappointment in china's economic print. laila: in the u.s. and elsewhere there is a lot more supply coming along and there are alternatives to oil. it is kind of shocking to us that it has dropped so much. we thought it would hold up more with china coming online and

having to use more oil. but somehow there is oil in the system and prices are staying low which is helping inflation. the reduction in the inflation number came because of the drop in oil prices which is very welcomed to the inflation and to the fed. haidi: laila pence, good to have you back. we will have more when it comes to commodities. russia halts a black seed grain deal with ukraine in a move that could jeopardize the stability of global food supplies. and what we have learned from china's evergrande long-delayed earnings reports as it aims to resume stock trading and complete its restructuring. details next. this is bloomberg. ♪

haidi: evergrande has finally posted results from the last years and the numbers show losses of more than $80 billion. we have more from hong kong. a pretty grim reading but unsurprising in a lot of ways. annabelle: when you consider the context of what has been the state of play for the last few years in china's property market it is a time when beijing crackdown on leverage among owners.

you also had a lot of chinese consumers pulling back from buying properties. the numbers were due at the end of march. we did not get those with the company blaming. it faced a lot of criticism from china's exchanges for the failure to provide that. you can see the recap and some of the numbers. when you combined those in aggregate the revenue minus the total borrowings losses of around $81 billion. very bleak numbers and the first time we have seen full year losses for the developer since it listed in 2009. shery: evergrande has been suspended from trading since march. does this get us closer to a resumption? annabelle: that is the question. the trading halt came through in march of last year and our bloomberg intelligence team says this could bring us closer to

that happening again. shares were suspended at a time when we were looking for details of outset plans that could come through and also looking for details around the debt restructuring proposal. that is the other part. you have the numbers which are another data point for offshore bondholders to be looking at. evergrande is going through a major debt restructuring proposal. the plan has been laid out but it is asking for offshore creditors to swap their debt for new securities and they can be tied to the property services unit or the builder itself. haidi: the latest when it comes to the timeline of the restructuring plan? annabelle: more details around the timeline. evergrande is looking to hold some key meetings later this month. they are looking to meet in the

hong kong high court on july 24. similar meetings on july 25 in the cayman islands involving class a and class b creditors. investors holding class a bonds backed the plan, the majority, around 77%. dirty percent of classy shareholders or bondholders endorse it so far. shery: annabelle droulers joining us from hong kong on evergrande. top ships executives from the u.s. are voicing their concerns against washington's restrictions on dealing with china. ceos from intel, qualcomm and nvidia were due to joining a white house meeting. for more, let's bring in stephen engle in hong kong. what do we know about this meeting? >> the meeting is very important because the chip companies have been more forcefully in

opposition to some of these curbs whether it was the october export curbs as on chipmaking equipment and further restrictions now potentially coming down the pike through a biden administration executive order coming potentially within days if not weeks which would severely limit their opportunities to sell more in their most dominant market. qualcomm gets 60% of their revenue from china. nvidia is a big player in the ai chip space. they get about me percent of their revenue from china. intel a major player as well. they are concerned the white house curbs could cut them off from their largest market and undermine u.s. leadership in the chip industry going forward. a biden administration is set to unveil more curbs in the coming weeks. the semiconductor industry association on monday put out a statement. we can read it here. overly broad, ambiguous and at

times unilateral restrictions, reference to china, risk diminishing the u.s. semiconductor industry's competitiveness and disrupt supply chains causing significant market uncertainty and prompting escalatory retaliation by china. the national security council responded saying the white house actions have been carefully tailored to focus on technology with national security implications. we don't know the details of the meeting, whether it has happened or if it is over and what came of it. obviously in their argument because none of these companies are responding to request for comment and the white house is also keeping quiet. obviously an important meeting going forward for the chip industry and the significance and the credentials of the white house efforts to limit exports of advanced chips to china. haidi: stephen engle with the latest in hong kong.

you can get a round up of those stories you need to know to get your day going in today's edition of daybreak. terminal subscribers can find those stories at dayb . this is bloomberg. ♪

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shery: let's take a look at some of the headlines we are tracking. thai pro-democracy leader will attempt a second time to become the nation's prime minister. he tells us the only candidate in last week's parliamentary vote was rejected by conservative lawmakers and military appointed senators. some say he cannot run a second time. another vote is due on wednesday. taiwan's vice president will stop in the u.s. next month transiting on his way to a

presidential inauguration in paraguay. china's foreign ministry has filed a diplomatic complaint that the u.s. over the planned stopover. the biden says the transit will be low-key, private and unofficial. haidi: taking a look at fx trading. barclays saying the dollar's painful route is looking overdone. we are seeing that perhaps being reflected in the overnight session when we had rage found trading against the dollar. we did have the weakness being led by the likes of the kiwi and the aussie. the risk prompting -- prompted ia reaction to the disappointing chinese numbers. and that downgrades from major investment banks. the dollar is still holding above the 68 sent u.s. level.

the kiwi is softer. we get new zealand inflation coming through. we could see a big shift down. dollar-yen one to watch. barclays saying we could potentially see some volatility to the yen to the downside if we do not see the boj making a move as early as this month. and dollar china is always one to watch going into the session given the gdp recovery is continuing to bridgett is here. she has no clue that i'm here. she has no clue who's in the helmet. are you ready? -i'm ready! alright.

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shery: russia has ended its grain export deal with ukraine increasing uncertainty over global food supplies. vonnie quinn has more details. it has been almost a year since

the pact went into effect. how important has it been to ensure the grain supply? >> it has been a lifesaver. 43 countries at risk of famine before the pack went into effect and that has been widely appreciated. that is data according to the u.n. food program. political unrest in several of those countries at that time as well. the food price spike came down quite substantially. today we saw grain futures up. though it half the level they were after russia invaded ukraine because ukraine is one of the biggest exporters of grain and oils. the very last grain ship -- the deal is now finally not operational. there are efforts for it to get up and running again but the efforts in the last few days have failed. to be clear it does not mean

there will not be exports, there we -- there will be. but it will take a lot longer and it will be more costly. and with currency fluctuations who knows how many more countries will be at risk of famine or having much more of their population fall into poverty. it has been a lifesaver. dirty 3 million tons of crop went through the port of odessa after the pack was signed a year ago and it was extended three times since the original signature, july of 2022. there were four signatories. the u.n. and turkey still working on this up unto a few hours ago but they have not been able to change russia's mind. haidi: is there any hope of it being resurrected? >> ukraine's foreign minister says he is holding urgent consultations with the united nations. u.n. has sent a letter to russia

saying it would work on efforts to remove hurdles affecting financial trying to actions through the russian -- financial transactions. it was a sticking point for russia. we did see a drone attack on a bridge that russia blamed on kyiv but in recent hours the kremlin has said that is not a factor. the main factor for them making this decision is because the food and fertilizer are not getting out to the world and the terms have not been met. the u.n. would not agree with that assumption of events but that is what russia's position as for now. and you have the turkish president saying he will speak to vladimir putin on this but for now it is a bleak outlook. it does not look like the russia and president has any interest -- it does not look like the russian president has any interest in resurrecting this pact until he gets confirmation

from the one haidi: gentiloni said they would move closer to the target next year. >> our expectation is the headline inflation will decline slow and not with the speed of headline inflation or core inflation will be slower. so, this is because of the fact that headline inflation is influenced by energy prices and the core inflation is influenced by the prices, wages, services. a mixed situation but overall i think we will have in 2024 the level of inflation near to our targets. >> underlying inflation has

peaked for you. is stagflation the right word to use to describe the european economy right now? >> we still have growth. weak growth, of course. slightly weaker than expected in the first quarter and probably also in the second quarter. but if we look to the last autumn, we were expecting a real recession. blackouts. energy problems. supply problems for energy. these risks did not materialize. i'm not saying we do not have any risks ahead of us because indeed tightening of monetary policy will produce impact. and also the energy transition,

we are not completely out of the woods in europe. we worked to get out of the dependency on russia's fossil fuels but it will be a challenge also for next year. overall i would say we are not in a stagflation situation. we still have growth. and we expect in 2024 to have stronger growth. and we will have an incredibly resilient labor market. shery: the ewing commissioner for the economy speaking with bloomberg at the g20 finance meeting in india. we have more conversations coming from the g20. catch our live interviews with key policymakers including with james chalmers. back to the u.s. economy, more calls that a soft landing could be possible. goldman sachs cutting the odds

for a recession for the u.s. next year. what is driving the reduction? annabelle: we are really starting to hear more about this . essentially goldman sachs has put out something tracking well on the terminal. good news for the u.s. economy. recession odds for next year are at 20%. four it was 25%. a 5% reduction. in terms of what is driving that it is the talk we are starting to hear that perhaps it is possible to engineer a soft landing without having the pace of tightening but without driving a deep recession. you're looking at a lot of the positive economic data. we have seen u.s. consumers holding up well. inflation starting to moderate according to the latest cpi and ppi numbers and other micro indicators. you take a look at the index,

you can see that we are starting to see a big divergence in the economic fundamentals and they are looking better than what economists had been predicting and not so well in other parts of the world like europe. how much do the downturns elsewhere weigh on the u.s. economy? haidi: bank of america seeing recession fears. annabelle: they are looking at where bondholders are putting their money and it seems they are putting money back into work. they have a survey they put to about 100 clients. cash levels in july are at their lowest point in two years. investors are going back into the market. above normal cash levels down to 21st -- 26% in july.

35% earlier. if you change now, a lot of moves we have seen in the equity space. we are still above the 4500 level just for the s&p 500. more optimism coming back in. it seems the earnings could be better than expected. another reason for us to stay bullish. shery: despite the u.s. opportunities, we are hearing from grandis investment partners that they do like invest -- emerging partners and they are not seeing that much slow in those economies compared to advanced economies. more in a moment. this is bloomberg. ♪

shery: the waiting game for some riskier emerging partner is coming to an end. pushing riskier sovereigns to look at global bond markets. turkey, egypt, paraguay and romania have tapped into international markets for more funds contributing to rebound across the asset class. developing nation sales ready this year have exceeded dollar and euro debt erasing all of

2022. how much does this have to do with the narrative ongoing now that it could be higher for longer? >> i think it has to do with that a lot. we are seeing and uptick or resurgence in primary markets. a lot of that has to do with companies and countries even starting to look at their maturity coming up the following year and what they need to raise to make those upcoming debt payments. sometimes you have to tap debt markets even if it is not a perfect moment to do so. like when the fed has interest rates rapidly approaching at peak. shery: how does that bode for what is happening in africa? we have saudi arabia and poland --what about those with high-yield sovereigns? >> that is where the focus is now for investors looking at

primary markets. we have seen saudi arabia and poland's and others. the high-yielders, the riskier emerging markets have not been able to tap markets quite as aggressively because of how high borrowing costs have gotten. if they have maturities coming up they have to pay will have little option unless they can get funding from another source. shery: our bloomberg emerging markets reporter. let's get more on the outlook for ems. our next guest does not see much of an economic slowdown in these economies unlike the beloved markets. with us now is louis lau. joining me here in new york. welcome to the studio. where you see the opportunities if you are thinking the economic slowdown we will see in advanced economies are not going to

translate to a slow down in the ems? louis: indonesia and mexico are well-placed and even brazil because you have a backdrop of declining inflation and rates coming lower. and a lot of these high risk borrowing we have seen in other markets are not affecting these countries. there is also a strong gdp rebound after covid. a lot of these countries have good things going on. shery: are you concerned about the emerging markets that hiked rates faster? this morning we had brazil economic data already showing strains in growth. louis: there -- they will probably be waiting for the fed to signal a pivot. a lot of these emerging market central banks don't want to cut too fast because they do not want their currencies to depreciate. they have run conventional monetary policy so have not done a lot of q. week.

if you look at the u.s. and europe, they are pulling back a lot of the quantitative easing they did so the money supply may be growing less in the developed markets. this favors emerging markets right now. haidi: when you take a look at the twin anchors for ems and how they fare, one is china's growth trajectory on the other is the direction of the u.s. dollar, which is more impactful? louis: for emerging market investors you have to manage the china allocution carefully. last year right before the covid reopening we felt the reopening was going to be --. this year we went underweight because we felt the market had gotten ahead of itself. managing china allocution and keeping in mind that china needs to find a new growth model.

the old playbook will not work well anymore. they need new avenues of growth. the u.s. dollar is the strongest it has been in 10 years. when you are investing in emerging markets when dollar strength is at its peak this usually bodes well for the next 5-10 years of returns. most of the time the em currencies are in a tailwind. haidi: looking at some of your peaks, consumers -- you look at the breakdown of consumer numbers and retail spending numbers we had yesterday, in that respect it looks like the consumer is showing some selective resilience. louis: i think the game in china is to pick the areas you think are going to do better than the

overall macro. some of the areas we talked about like domestic travel, macau gaming, the chinese consumers are not traveling a lot internationally. their incomes have been affected by lockdown. the other area we like is sportswear. sportswear has a growth trajectory of 10%-15% year on year in terms of earnings. and an emerging area is the values we have seen in the drawdown of equities and the slow down of the supply chain in china. shery: as we speak we are getting a headline from the china securities journal saying beijing is likely to cut the rrr in the third quarter to boost the economy. what form will stimulus take? we have been wearing for monetary and fiscal stimulus to come from china. we have not see anything that --

we have not seen anything that could potentially fuel markets higher. louis: we are not optimistic on stimulus. there is not a lot of room to increase debt to support all of these domestic industries like real estate and infrastructure. i expect they will try to keep the baseline at 5%, 5.5% gdp growth and i don't think markets should be looking for more than that because they are concerned about debt risks. the local governments have a default rate. that is weighing on the balance sheets of chinese banks. shery: not to mention even if you put monetary stimulus out there, households don't seem to want to borrow. and businesses as well. it seems consumer confidence is lacking. where are you seeing domestic credit demand being stronger in

asia? louis: india, indonesia, the philippines coming off a very strong consumer rebound after covid. we owned banks in those countries. we think the credit demand there will be better than in china where people are paying down their credit cards and mortgages. haidi: it is interesting you mention india. we look at data that shows three dollars of etf flows for every dollar chasing india from u.s. investors. we saw japan over the last few months being a major beneficiary of those redirected flows. is india repositioning as the alternative? louis: in terms of growth in asia, yes. what we have to be careful about valuation. last year if you bought anything in india it was trading at three times above the standard

deviation of past history. within a market like that there can be huge moves. for us as investors we do like financials, banks, utilities. we think there are areas within india that can still offer relative value and we are not prepared to chase some of the highflying consumer stocks which are trading very high. shery: louis lau, great to have you in the new york studio phase to phase for the -- face to face for the first time ever. if you missed any part of this conversation, tv is your function and you can watch us live and if you have questions for us, for our guests, just chat to us. send us a message through our instant message chat group for internal subscribers only. check it out on tv .

this is bloomberg. ♪ fabulous surroundings... but everyone's looking at their phones for financial insights from merrill. is he hailing a ride to the concert hall? no. he's making sure his portfolio and retirement plans work in harmony.

they want to adopt a child and build a new home. so they're talking numbers with their merrill adviser. she's not researching her next role. she's learning how to handle market ups and downs without the drama. personalized advice so impressive your money never stops working for you with merrill. a bank of america company. shery: u.s. clothing brand ralph lauren is focusing on china and india as key growth centers outside of its home country. the ceo told us exclusively about the potential of the asian markets and how the company is

approaching them. >> we want to stay unique and special. it is why we are building in markets like china and we look ahead to markets like india which are promising for the future. we are being very deliberate to plant the right foundation. >> china has huge potential but it is still a small market for you. >> huge short, mid and long term potential for us. it is double what it was 3-4 years ago. it is still quite small when you look at the penetration of the chinese business for some of the best luxury players in the industry at our 20% or 30% or 40%. i'm excited about the opportunities. what is energizing for us is how the brand is connecting with the younger consumer and the more elevated consumer. we sell, oddly enough, our most elevated products we sell best in china. we have the best gender balance,

most of our business historically has been men but in china it is a good balance. and it is a relatively young consumer, late 20's, early 30's. we are moving very deliberately in our approach to china. we could grow faster but we want to do it in a quality way. i'm very excited about asia. haidi: ralph lauren's ceo with bloomberg. taking on some of the top corporate stories. the chairman of the top chinese chip maker has resigned a year after taking the top job. the ceo says they quit because of a job adjustment. the latest high profile departure from a company impacted by chip tariffs. bloomberg has learned that

microsoft and activision are nearing the finish line when it comes to their deal. sources say companies will continue seeking the final approvals they need. u.k. regulators barred the firms from closing the deal even though it had received government approval in 39 countries. shares tumbled as -- ford is aiming to fend off big competition coming from tesla and general motors. the f-150 lightning probe starts at just under $150,000. shery: take a look at commodities. oil prices under a little pressure after we saw them drop in the new york session. disappointing chinese data and issues of libya pressuring oil. and the grain prices.

we saw a spike in wheat and corn futures after russia ended the grain export deal but it is now moving lower. we are following gold. dropping after its best week since april. as we saw a little push higher in the dollar and bond yields. all to do with the fed's rate hike path. that is it for "bloomberg daybreak: australia." "daybreak: asia" is next. this is bloomberg. ♪ ...

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