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tv   Bloomberg Technology  Bloomberg  July 17, 2023 11:00pm-12:00am EDT

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asia. >> i am here in hong kong. our top stories, chinese developers under pressure as hong kong markets reopen today. janet yellen expects spillovers from sluggish growth. no recession in the u.s.. we speak exclusively with the bank of italy governor. expecting two more quarter-point hikes. adani group's turning cautious as the fallout lingers from the hindenburg report. welcome to the show. we are approaching midmorning. thailand is coming on line right now. as we go into the market opens, the direction of travel is down. we were weaker on monday.
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today a bit more nuanced in many ways because you have the major markets coming online. japan reopen today. hong kong also reopening today. volumes coming back. 1.7% to the downside hong kong. if you want to get a sense where we are a star sector rotation, break it down by sectors. industrial and financials. we will get to china and just a moment. commercial and consumer services on the way down. the china parts the story though. csi 100 going into the last 30 minutes of trade is down. materials may be the only holdout so far.
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we were talking about consumer staples, injury, industrial some very sharp downside here. we will set the china story aside for the moment and take you back to india. you have been very busy. lots of big ones coming out today. key takeaways for you today? haslinda: day two of g20, big issues including sustainable finance, debt restructuring. the key topic is the slow down in china. the huge disappointment. we heard from janet yellen today and the exclusive with bloomberg. she talked about the ripple effects, especially for asian economies dependent on china. most of them have china as a key trading partner. that could be spillover effects
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in the united states as well. she was cautious to say unlikely to see a recession. we have strong labor in the united states, inflation going in the right direction, so she made it a pretty hopeful picture. take a listen. >> we are undergoing a four year required review with tariffs. we have to see what comes out of the review, but i would emphasize that the underlying concerns we have of not -- have not been addressed in we need to work on that going forward. haslinda: watch out for geopolitics. the u.s. did say it is using -- looking at those restrictions in selected areas like quantum computed -- computing and ai. david: i am glad you brought that up. the other part of the story, we
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have the scoop that any sort of investment curbs would actually be narrow. it is this delicate balance that janet yellen has to thread. is it decoupling? one side of the conversation is semantics. she also talked about how on the one hand the u.s. economy is actually doing very well. the china slow down might not have that big of an impact precisely because of things in the labor market doing well. haslinda: that is right. when i spoke to the president of deutsche bank, he did talk about how maybe this is a new china. maybe this is the new growth
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momentum that china will have coming from here on. so perhaps everybody will have to navigate the new china so some challenges i for policymakers. we continue discussions here at the g20. we have a lot of big interviews, including the bank of italy governor. he will be joining us exclusively so you do not want to miss that conversation in just a few minutes. david: there we go. stay tuned for all of those big conversations. joining us now is sameer goal from deutsche bank. very nice to talk to you. what a time to be having a conversation around the macro parts. we have not seen a rally in fixed income the way we saw last
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week. do you think we have now turned a corner? >> there were two macro narratives that will define 2023. one was finding the peak on the recycle in the developed economy. over the last few weeks it has definitely been more conviction to believe we hit it. it feels like now with the latest inflation, we are certainly getting more conviction that we are getting to the top of the cycle. this month might be the final rate hike. it is also true that a lot of the fed talk means they will probably keep their options on the table on whether they need to do more beyond this month.
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the second part is china. i think that is where we have yet to find -- its suggests that part has yet to turn around. it has led to more expectations that you will need policy support. david: those two things seem to be clearly dollar negative. does the dollar look expensive to you? >> the peak of the dollar came as early as quarter three of last year. for that to extend itself i suspect still needs more clarity . it is also about the relative policy cycle.
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if there is more tight and still to come in other parts of the economies or not. the almost definitely looking still expensive to us and it seems like the direction of the dollar is to the downside. for the downside to become more convincing, i think we need more clarity. the china bit remains [indiscernible] i think we should get more reliefs i the currency otherwise it would still remain one of the areas [indiscernible] david: it seems the play is bmx china. do i still stick to the winners from the first half? i am looking at latin america.
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that has really done very, very well. does that continue? >> yes. e.m. is this inflating -- disinflation at least as fast as the developing world. the second factor is as long as this correction to inflation around the world is happening in a benign fashion, it is happening because of correction and supply come i think [indiscernible] and that is always good. i think what we have seen in the last two weeks means this can potentially extend. they should do well in this
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environment where you are having this inflation for the right reason. in the developed world and in the e.m. space. david: are you also saying that fx volatility remains quite low? >> yes. disinflation is happening in a growth environment, which is still largely ok and it is happening in a benign fashion, so i think volatility will stay low. david: you are short dollar korea. why? >> koreas one of those markets where we see a turnaround and then electronics cycle. it could benefit from this kind of goldilocks environment where you see the global disinflation proceed and happening in an
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environment without a downward correction in demand. it is somewhere where someone like korea could do relatively well. if the china growth downside does not trigger more policy support, then i think most of the sentiment could turn for the worst. david: it has been a while -- things seem very predictable. inflation seems to be behaving. volatility is low. what are you watching out for in terms of risks that could mess with this goldilocks period? >> the two risks i would think
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most about is that this disinflation is happening around -- without the need of excessive further tightening. or one that will risk there is a much harder landing in the developing world. if we were to trigger far more tightening and that would cause a move lower in the economy come i think that changes the picture. china is obviously the other risk. china is growing reasonably at about 5%. but it definitely needs some policy support. david: fantastic as always your insights.
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just ahead, we are talking india and the adani group. companies are holding shareholder meetings here. bankers are turning cautious following the allegations going back to the hindenburg report. we have not talked about europe. that is coming up next. our exclusive with the italy bank governor. plenty more ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪
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the minister of commerce in china put out a notice including 13 other departments outlining several measures to boost household consumption. they just drop that statement. it should be on the website. i am counting 11 different parts of the statement. it will take us time to get through the details of this.
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this is a joint statement for many ministries, outlining household consumption. big breaking news out of china. we will take you now to india where my colleague is standing by. haslinda: elsewhere in the world like the u.s. and europe, they're trying to fight inflation. inflation remains a huge issue. joining us exclusively is ignazio visco, banca d'italia governor. good to see you. when it comes to the fight against inflation, where is it right now? has core inflation peaked? >> the good news is inflation has been [indiscernible]
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in the last month. it is around five, 5.5. the news is also a little bit more complicated when we look at underlying inflation. although reduction has to do with energy prices from have an increase massively, also reducing now in the last months also dramatically. we have seen in core inflation, in underlying inflation, and the prices of goods and services, we have seen a pass-through of the massive increase in energy prices, especially gas prices which is the major difference between the europe and the united states. and this explains why core inflation is stubborn.
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at the same time, seems we have also been observing a substantial reduction in energy prices, we have to expect this will be seen also in underlying inflation in the coming months, certainly by the end of the year. haslinda: we are still far away from the 2% target. if inflation does not ease until september, would you support a rate hike? >> it did not go down further because of the under lying inflation increasing. when energy prices start reflecting the fall in energy prices then we will certainly see as substantial reduction. this is in our projections. we project that by the end of the year he will be 2%.
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my impression is it will be faster. what really matters is whether [indiscernible] some demand effects may be added. what we are observing in europe is that manufacturing is falling down, but service sector is booming in a number of countries. haslinda: how is the economy doing? has there been any change? >> i do not think there has been much of a change. the transmission of monetary policy takes time. this is not a new thing. monetary policy affects the real
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economy. we still have to be patient and wait for monetary policy to have all of its effects. haslinda: so the triple down on the real economy takes time. might the ecb be tightening too much? >> my feeling is that we have been moving from substantial increases in rates at 75 points per meeting. so we are gradually reducing rates. i think we have to assess how long we must remain in these tightened territory. i think we have to be there until we see price stability is back.
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my feeling is that we are on the right track. haslinda: so higher for longer? >> not too long. haslinda: companies must ensure they do not passed on the cost to the consumer. >> i do not think we need to have a recession. i think we can have disinflation without a recession. we have to be careful on that. there was a risk of doing too much and i think that we have to be careful of that. because if we do too much, we may overdo our target. there is also a risk we do too little, so we have to be balanced.
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we are doing a lot of quantitative analysis. people say we made a major mistake in projection and in reacting to increase in inflation. i think the projection was simply the wrong projection through these exclusions of gas prices. at was the consequence of the ukraine war. haslinda: the reduction in the bond portfolio, some say it is happening too slowly. what can be done to expedite? >> i think it is happening in the way it should. we have to be prudent. haslinda: good to have you with us. ignazio visco, banca d'italia governor. we are coming to you live from
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india where the g20 summit is happening. keep it here with us. this is bloomberg. ♪
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it has been busy. officials have dropped a statement outlining various support measures to boost household consumption. 13 departments looking to boast
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-- boost household consumption. we are looking at 11 measures. they are talking about intensity, coverage, quality and supply of those measures, including financial companies told to enhance household spending support. some of this seems to be targeted to boast in -- boost in home appliances. this is published on the ministries website. college wasn't for me,
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it has been eventful in news. we have yet to see details, but headlines suggest there are more measures coming out from china to help boost consumption. the ministry of commerce outlined a series of four parts. let me look at this statement again. four parts, 11 measures roughly in total. strategies to boost consumption, financial companies should help boost household consumption. it is also worth noting that we were shut down yesterday and hong kong. the losses were exacerbated by concerns over property banks.
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the losses over two sessions. the last 30 minutes of trade and hong kong, back yet again and 19,000 on the index. let's have a look at japan right now. we were shut yesterday in japan. benchmark wise, 30 24. dollar-yen at about 138. going into this week, you have a boj decision. it is really how the curve has shifted, may be in anticipation of a shift. traders are starting to speculate.
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if you are hearing the sounds of chirping birds in the background, your not imagining anything. haslinda: the birds are happy. australia's treasurers says the incoming bank governor will be able to combat inflation. >> inflation is moderating in australia, but it will be higher than we like for longer than we like. our inflation challenges similar to the inflation challenge faced by a lot of countries in the g20. in our case it peaked around
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christmas time. but it still is the defining challenge in our economy. but what we're doing is focusing on the primary fight against inflation, but also working out how do we invest in laying the foundation for future growth. as we come out of this downturn in our economies. haslinda: do you think more rate hikes are needed? >> it remains to be seen. the reserve bank has said our budgets has been doing. australia is actually a world leader in this respect. we found a way to provide cost-of-living help at the same time we repair our object. our budget is improving quite considerably. the first surplus in 15 years. but not at the expense of providing some help and it comes
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to the cost of medicine, rent and some of these other cost-of-living pressures. haslinda: you have cpi data coming out in a few weeks. are you hopeful? take a look at what happened in the u.s.. >> think we need to be careful about making assumptions about the pace in the united states and in austell you. -- australia. we welcome the moderation in inflation in the united states. people are under pressure. it will be a feature of our economy for some time. growth is expected to slow down rapidly. haslinda: the treasury does not
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expect a recession. why not? >> both our forecast and the economy to continue to grow, but quite slowly. the challenges in the global economy are substantial as you know. we expect the slowdown in our own economy to be significant. haslinda: how closely are you watching china? the data out of the country has been lackluster. mike that have an -- might you have to review the projections you have? >> has a substantial impact on how we see prospects for the global economy. we have been monitoring closely some of that softer data out of china. as well as we have been monitoring out of europe. when the data out of china is a bit softer, that is concerning
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for us. we have not revised our forecast for our economy, but we are monitoring developments in china. david: there you go. that was the australian treasure. -- treasurer. a little bit of strength coming through in the currency. some of the key stories we are watching closely today in the country. big meetings. adani, total gas, top top among -- tata among them. big names posting their results. haslinda: not a day goes by
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without talking about adani group. they continue to suffer from the fallout of handing groups attack. microsoft turned cautious on the conglomerate after the release of the report back in january. let's get more from our reporter. what is the context here? reporter: they are intensifying their scrutiny. adani group has denied the report, [indiscernible] barclays was helping the
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conglomerate. they also said there were going to raise money. barclays could not take part. they said that and leases not the top banker when it comes to the banking relations of adani group. the relations with global banks continue to be robust. david: it is almost like the news god's came together and gifted us with this. what are we watching for for some of these companies?
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>> the flagship company [indiscernible] the meaning is going to be virtual. they will lay out their plans. it will also clarify its relationships with international banks. they will have findings on whether there is any wrongdoing by the company or not. the street will be watching for the announcements put forth by the chairman. david: thank you so much.
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i would try to think in my head. with the revert time when corporations were like, you caught us. that is just me speaking out loud. coming up, we're speaking with the ceo of a energy and climate think tank. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> to actively further the g20 agenda. this includes addressing critical global issues, such as taken a coordinated plan of action. >> our collaboration spans a range of economic issues, including commercial and technological collaboration, strengthening supply chains, and a clean energy transition. haslinda: that was u.s. treasury secretary janet yellen. speaking at the g20 finance
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summit in india. india needs to rapidly accelerate investments to meet its energy goals. let's check in with our reporter. what is happening on solar and wind installations? would you have for us? -- what do you have for us? >> india attracted $92 billion for financing for infrastructure projects. solar is a bit late compared to wind.
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the sector has been having a rough patch for the last few years. hopefully we will see growth in the future. haslinda: talk to us about the government initiatives supporting the development of renewable energy in india? >> the first policy that comes to mind is the renewable options policy. these options have enabled india to achieve renewable projects. it is the reason why we have had achieved subsidy free renewables in india much ahead of other countries. it forces power producers to
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supply reliable power rather than intermittent power. in the past we have seen and yet did not auction more than 20 gigawatts of projects. but now in the once to supersize these projects. -- india wants to supersize these products. good times ahead. david: it seems like this is accelerating. do you think this gets india to its net zero targets? in time echo --? >> if you are talking about net
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zero, it is a totally different ballgame. it needs to accelerate its deployment of renewable technologies. in needs to electrify a most everything it can. it needs to get its admissions down. -- emissions down. finally, india will need to unlock sources of financing to enable this energy transition. haslinda: thank you so much for that. let's bring in our next guest who runs one of india put spread
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-- india's think tanks. arunabha ghosh from council on energy environment and water. we heard about how india missed its renewable targets. what does it need to do differently to meet future targets? >> and miss the 175 gigawatt target -- it missed the 175 gigawatts target. it achieved its 2030 goals set under the paris agreement way back in 2020 one, whereby it now has 42% of its electricity capacity, which is coming from non-fossil sources. in needs to double down on the options. we now need to be auctioning 50 gigawatts of capacity every year.
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and yet has to deploy 11-12 megawatts of renewables for the rest of the decade. it has to lure the cost of finance. cost of capital is still higher in india than in the united states or europe. if you can bring that down it increases the ability of the utilities to buy more renewables. has to look beyond the electricity sector and look at how carbonization and sustainable mobility can be new drivers of pulling along this new energy transition. when you look at heavy industry, small industry, india options more than 5000 electric buses last year. this year they plan to do 50,000.
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these types of scale economies will hopefully get off the line in 2030. haslinda: we know india has imposed taxes on solar cells. our trade barriers getting in the way? >> so far they are not. they import more than 80% of its solar modules. unfortunately across the world we can observe industrial policy as bad, especially in clean energy sectors. you see in the european union, in japan. what needs to happen is the diversification of renewable supply chains because no economy can be completely dependent on one provider of solar panels or wind turbines. i think it is very important that this is what the g20 is
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discussing. how do these major economies build up energy sectors while building more interdependent supply chains when it comes to renewable energy products? india has 20 gigawatts of capacity. then needs to go up to 100,000 gigawatts by the end of the decade. but that does not preclude [indiscernible] clearly there is a lot of enforcement possible into the very large indian market. david: i think that is a good example. can you talk us through -- you mentioned these options need to go up. what is the ideal energy mix at the moment? is this still mostly solar? >> primarily it could be solar,
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followed by wind. also, nuclear. we need nuclear capacity as part of our zero goals. the point is all cylinders firing in terms of clean energy sources. solar, we have more than 300 days of sunshine. so let's stop the resources we have. we will need 600 gigawatts of solar. over 200 gigawatts of nuclear. in addition to carbon removal to get the net zero part of the equation. haslinda: we are seeing huge subsidies coming from the united states, as well as europe. india's pales in comparison.
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will that affect investments coming into india? >> i think the u.s. ira makes a lot of sense for the u.s. the point is we have more sunshine, we have more optimal resources for the production of green hydrogen. india's green hydrogen is the third largest in the world. how do we not just look at building up the sectors, but seeing how much they can also promote joint ventures between u.s. companies and indian companies? the same applies for the european union. we have to get more creative. we end up with islands of regulation that don't go here. david: on that very bright note,
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let's leave it there. arunabha ghosh from the council on energy environment and water. we are counting down to the annual summit that is taking place about a month from now. bringing together leaders within the relevant stakeholders and sectors to help shape a cleaner future. this is bloomberg. ♪
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just a glimpse at some of the big stock movers across the region. tencent down about 4%. there are some concerns around property and finance and banks. there is the evergrande group story. there also announcements coming through and i will leave you with this look at the code -- discretionary index -- consumer discretionary index. announcements that are meant to boost household consumption.
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haslinda: the outlook for china's economy has been a key aim here at the g20. even as we talk about big issues, there is one issue that is bothering the g20 summit. that has to do with the use of words that have to do with the ukraine war. if you do not have any agreement, you run the risk of not having [indiscernible] since 2008. that is it from bloomberg markets: asia. do keep it here with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ stening more than talking, and a personalized plan ♪ to guide you through a changing world. ♪ i need it cool at night. you trying to ice me out of the bed? to guide you through a changing world. baby, only on game nights. you know you are retired right? am i? ya!
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