dani: good morning and welcome to "bloomberg daybreak: europe". i'm dani burger in london and these are the stories that set

your agenda. treasury secretary yellen says china's slowdown is causing ripple effects across the globe but she doesn't expect u.s. recession. we will bring our exclusive interview. thanks brace for to rules from u.s. regulators. morgan stanley and bank of america post q2 results later today. details emerge of u.s. crackdowns on investments in china tech. delays mean some rules won't bite until next year. breaking earnings from pharma giant novartis. it is a beat on eps, net sales coming in at 13 point $6 billion, the expectation was 13.3. corgi ps is a beat, 1.83 dollars. the big beat from interest of sales beating. and plavicto sales also beating.

it looks like most of their products are able to beat. sandoz's board unanimously endorsed the proposed separation. they have raise their full year outlook. it is a beat for the second quarter. and here is novartis raising their full year art look. -- outlook. that immaculate disinflation route lent itself to the idea that inflation is cooling. you can see bonds extending their gains over the past two days after last week. the best week for the global aggregate of this year. in equities land, it is a rough session in europe but american equity divide that as it tends to do. it gained steam throughout the rest of yesterday's session.

heading into today's session, there was a bloomberg's group over to regulation for american banks rate we're down slightly this morning when it comes to u.s. futures. over the past two days we are looking at a gain. for individual stocks that moved yesterday, ford was one of the worst-performing stocks because it is participating in this price war elon musk has started. it has had to slash the price of its f-150 ev truck by 17%. on the flipside, one of the supportive stocks was activision blizzard. it gained yesterday on what was called productive talks with u.k. regulators. for what it's worth, the deadline was today to close this deal. people familiar telling bloomberg they will have to extend that. microsoft likely won't close the deal until later. let's see how the asian markets are faring and get to charlotte

gang. what are you looking at this morning? charlotte: in asia this morning we're looking at a downbeat session. . china's growth outlook again in the spotlight. after disappointing second-quarter gdp which prompted economists at jp morgan, morgan stanley and citi to slash economic forecasts for this year. we are seeing concern reflected in market moves today. in hong kong we're seeing heavy selling with the hsi falling 3%. today was the first opportunity investors had to react to disappointing gdp figures. the csi 300 fell 0.2%, and the msci also gift. china property is among the bigger losers today. we have seen broader moves.

among the largest public developers which fell more than 10%, and country garden falling more than a percent. that is not looking good, especially after evergrande reported more than 18 billion dollars of losses for the past two years. the korean benchmark index also slipped. in australia as well. japan remains narrowly in the green thanks to ev supply chain stocks that gained after byd reported a three fold increase in earnings yesterday. dani: thank you very much, that is bloomberg's charlotte y ang. let's get to top stories this morning. with our roundtable is lizzy burden and valerie tytel. lizzy, we have all been waiting for what basil iii regulations would look like. lizzy: the new rules for capital

requirements that u.s. bank regulators will announce next week will be stricter than the international standard. it is part of the u.s. version of basel three, the post-financial crisis agreement. dani: the risk weightings will be changing, not necessarily capital requirements. we look at balance sheet and design risk to everything. regulators are saying for residential mortgages you will not get higher risk assigned to them. valerie: then new information was this focus on residential capital they have to hold against that. it is 20 percentage points higher than the basil three framework. the other key thing is this new regulation will target banks with just $100 billion in assets. before the stricter capital controls from u.s. regulators did not kick in until you were

$250 billion worth of assets. it will be more to handle for u.s. regional banks. dani: we will get regional bank earnings today. as well as morgan stanley and bank of america. this idea about a credit crunch. we thought it would happen too soon. they are slow-moving and to this point of tougher regulations, the fed had data showing that consumer loan approvals are at a five-year low. there is the sense that credit is being pulled back. i don't know how tougher regulations will phase into that. valerie: it will be a key focus on bank of america's net interest income. it peaked in q4 and has come under pressure the first quarter of this year as deposit costs are finally rising for big banks. the key thing is if that trend will continue. with morgan stanley, i want to know how trading revenue has fared, and have their banking fees stabilized?

they have had a lot of job cuts when it comes to their investment banking business. is that because they are more negative on their outlook for fees this year? dani: how the banks and consumers play might lend itself to reduced recession odds. that choir is getting louder. lizzy: at goldman's, an analyst says he can make out how the glide path to a soft landing. they have raise the chance of u.s. avoiding recession from 75% to 80%, off the back of encouraging macro data, core inflation coming in well down. the most encouraging sign, so backing up janet yellen, b u.s. treasury secretary saying she doesn't expect recession either. but she has said the china's slowdown will ripple through the global economy. dani: even marko kolanovic at jp morgan now says there is a wider path to a soft landing.

maybe he uses a contrarian indicator these days, considering he became a per my bear when the market sold off. valerie: maybe that tells you the peak of optimism is in if kalon avenges calling for a positive story. not everyone is upgrading forecasts. citi is calling this soft landing optimism premature, and thinks inflation will accelerate sometime later this summer in q3. dani: i want to quickly mention -- i broke novartis earnings earlier but i want to mention a redhead. they raise their full your outlook and are announcing a $15 billion share buyback. switching up other top stories, from health care to tech. lizzy: we have new news on the u.s.-china curves, the curbs on china investment will be targeted and will take time to

rollout. this is through a biden executive order. disappointing for china hotspot good news if you're wanting to invest in china tech. janet yellen says china has failed to address unfair practices that led to these tariffs. take a listen. >> undergoing a four-year required review of tariffs. we have to see what comes out of the review, but i would emphasize that the underlying concerns we have have not yet been addressed, and we need to work on that. dani: the noise we heard from the administration was much more than that, was much more hawkish in terms of restrictions on china tech. it shows how slow-moving this stuff is. valerie: i don't think we get the official proposal by the end of august. some of these new rules not going into effect until next

year. this theme might be with us a few more months as we continue to focus on the u.s.-china relationship. dani: i want to take us through what we're watching in the day ahead. we will get ocado earnings. those usually hit around 7:00 a.m. but not always, so keep an eye out around that time, increased margins will be the focus for the online grocer. we will get bank of america, morgan stanley hitting around the same time. also on the lookout for regional banks like pnc, bny mellon and we will get retail sales data. i wonder if this will go to the immaculate disinflation narrative. valerie: today's retail sales print from the u.s. is the biggest macro data print of the week. we're light on the calendar this week. does go far to rock the boat on this narrative of a soft landing, of this immaculate

disinflation down to 2% without real pain in the economy? it is expected that car sales are likely to drive this print higher, but we will see if it comes above consensus. dani: in the future i don't know if car sales will because it is one of those interest-rate sensitive sectors. lizzy and valerie, thank you for joining this morning. for your morning roundtable. you can get a roundup of stories to get your day going in today's edition of daybreak. colonel subscribers go to dayb on your terminal. we will dig into markets with alex tedder head and cio of global and u.s. equities at schorders, and took a look at nasdaq special rebalancing of stock weightings. swedbank second quarter profit beats estimates thanks to

interest-rate tailwinds. the ceo will join us to discuss those upbeat numbers later this hour. this is bloomberg. ♪

dani: welcome back to "bloomberg daybreak: europe". about 15 minutes ago we got earnings on seb, seeing

second-quarter net interest income beating estimates, 11 .8 billion swedish krona. the interesting thing to come from this is they are building up reserves saying they are mainly for challenges in the real estate sector. swedish real estate really of concern. looking at svb, for example, this maturity wall most of the sector faces. most banks say they can handle them well. swedbank among one of them. we will speak to the ceo later in the program. second-quarter net income is a beat read that is the other theme for european banks, and i i strong but will be have to lift deposit betas? when it comes to monetary policy, ecb's nagel says the bank must raise rates again this month. the bundesbank chief spoke to us on the sidelines of the g20 meeting in india, warning that

underlying inflation is proving to be very sticky. >> we hiked eight times. we see the impact of what we did the last 12 months. there is a high probability that in our july meeting we have to hike next time, and i expect on another 25 basis points. we wait for the data that is coming in. we have a short summer break them for the september meeting we will see with the data will tell us. >> when it comes to core inflation, is there a sense it has peaked or could there be surprises? >> core inflation is very sticky. this is a surprise to everyone. for more or less all the developed countries that core is not coming down like it came down in past cycles.

i believe the latest stage of the inflation story, we will see core coming down but it is necessary to wait for this data. it is too early to declare a certain kind of victory when it comes to our inflation fight. >> is there anything that recalls distortions, things like germany transport discounts, like that cause distortions? >> we have to be alert for any distortions we could think about. at the moment, it looks like we have seen the first impact of what we did over the last 12 months. i already alluded to that, and i'm pretty confident we can more or less win that fight. i said a couple of weeks ago that inflation is a greedy beast. i use that picture to make crystal clear that it takes commitment. we have to be stubborn to fight inflation. this greedy beast, it's still

very hungry but i'm confident we can tame it at the end and bring inflation down to our target. dani: ecb governing council member joaquim nagel with haslinda almond at the g20 in india. we will have plenty more ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> the united states growth is slowed, but our labor market continues to be quite strong. i don't expect a recession. i think we're on a good path to bringing inflation down. the most recent inflation data were quite encouraging that we're making progress on getting

inflation down. but as i'd hoped and expected, that would occur in the context of a strong labor market. and we continue to see that. the labor market has been so strong, has encouraged more prime age to enter the labor force and to work. that's helped take the heat out of the labor market. the fact that growth overall is slowed after we enjoyed a rapid recovery. that's normal. but it's also led to some reduction in the desire of firms to hire. still lots of job openings, but wage growth is moderating. and inflation is subsiding. i think we're in a good path in the united states. >> it sounds like soft landing

is your base case and you don't think we will see recession. yesterday when you are speaking to reporters, you talk about de-escalation with china. he ruled out lifting tariffs as part of this de-escalation with beijing. so what is on the table? sec. yellen: put tariffs in place on china, because we had underlying concerns about unfair trade practices. particularly those affecting intellectual property and technology transfer. and those concerns really have not been addressed. we're undergoing a four-year required review of tariffs. of course, china also retaliated putting tariffs in place on us. we have to see what comes out of the four-year review. but i would emphasize that

really the underlying concerns we have have not yet been addressed, and we need to work on that going forward. dani: that was janet yellen, u.s. treasury secretary speaking exclusively to bloomberg from the sidelines of the g20 finance ministers meeting in india. we are firmly in the earnings season. at the end of last week we have a lot of bank earnings. we have morgan stanley, bank of america, some regional banks. we will continue with some other banks, as well as tech and european earnings, too. jp morgan in their earnings last week has proven to be the goliath of global banking. they were the only stock out of the kby banking index to end friday on the green. look at the performance year to date of jp morgan versus the rest of the kbw banking index. the divergence happens in march during the svb regional banking

crisis. there is the thing. jp morgan's gain is still less than the entirety of the s&p 500, so there is concern about the industry. are we reaching peak net interest income, are deposit datas going to pick up, is the consumer under pressure? regardless, analysts expect jp morgan to shine. i want to show you what a banking analyst at wells fargo had to say of jp morgan. this might be the best court of all time. he wrote jp morgan is like the lebron james of banking. they are good not only at defense, they are good at offense. this quarter showed how they are able to put a lot of points on the board, while maintaining balance sheet strength. that is the most stretched best of paul manafort you will ever get about jp morgan. which goes to show the excitement you will get. i mentioned other earnings in europe. this morning, we had novartis

hitting the tape 25 minutes ago. they are planning to buy back up to $15 billion worth of shares. they have upgraded their outlook. and they will be preparing to spin off their sandoz generics unit. they think that will happen later this year. the court unanimously said they want to spin off sandoz. they now think their profit excluding some items will likely grow by low double digits this year. an upgrade and a buyback of $15 billion. we got more swedish bank earnings. seb also hit the tape about 25 minutes ago. the story here and for swedbank which came about an hour ago is all about net interest income. really strong when it comes to that. higher rates being passed on to savers is still near zero.

so the question here is about peak. are we nearing a peak when it comes to net interest income, are they going to have to pay borrowers more? we will get ocado in just under an hour's time. u.s. clothing brand ralph lauren says the average price of products is up 80% and 2018. the ceo patrice louvet told us exclusively about what the company is doing to ensure the consumer sees the value in their offer. >> i think it's back to what this company stood for historically. already at the time, this phenomenon has been coming of bifurcation of brands that have pricing power. consumers see the value and therefore you have the ability to increase your average retail. other consumers are focused on selling product, not engaging the consumer the same way, much more promotional.

to go back to our roots is where we want to take the company. our average unit retail is close to 80% now since we started this journey. short answer, i don't think there is a limit, as long as we do a good job elevating the product, the storytelling, the environment. making sure the consumer sees the value. our valley perception is the highest since we have been tracking it. but the onus is on us to make sure we are providing consistent elevation as the consumer sees it and that will support continued growth. dani:

dani: good morning and welcome back to "bloomberg daybreak: europe". i'm dani burger in london.

these are the stories you are waking up to. treasury secretary janet yellen says china's economic slowdown risks causing ripple effects across the globe but she doesn't expect u.s. recession. banks brace for tougher rules from u.s. regulators next week, including on mortgages, that go beyond international standards. morgan stanley and bank of america post q2 results later today. details emerge of the u.s. crackdown on investments in chinese tech. some rules won't bite until next year. let's go straight to these markets. because the immaculate disinflation crowd is picking up some steam. an analyst at goldman yesterday lowering his recession call from the u.s. from 25 to 20. perhaps the bond market has it wrong, perhaps an inverted yield curve doesn't mean recession is coming. bonds another day of gains after the best way for global fixed income this year. equities continue to gain.

the rally is continuing, got to love it. we are in the thick of earnings season. american equities showing up, we are getting outperformance, but the bar has been low. underneath i want to show you the crosscurrents of yesterday's equities session. ford dropping after having to slash the price of their electric f-150, competing with tesla and others who have been slashing costs. and activision blizzard, the microsoft takeover will not happen today according to people familiar, but the talks with u.k. regulators have been described as productive hence you got that rally. it is not only american earnings, we have earnings in europe. swedbank's second quarter profit topped estimates thanks to tailwinds from rising interest rates. net interest income at sweden's second-biggest bank rose in the three months through june.

ceo jens henriksson joins us now. always a pleasure to speak with you. another quarter of net interest income, talk to me about that strength. jens: it's one of the lines that during the quarter sticks out, because we delivered an increase of 7%. but it's not the only line. altogether, we're seeing profit, that means we delivered return on equity of 20.4%. so, we stand really strong. dani: in that strength, you know the question always comes up, how long can the peak in net interest income last? i'm wondering whether you are seeing pressure on deposit datas, or having to give savers more back to reflect higher interest rates? jens: what we see is that mortgages are going down in a tough environment where a lot of swedes, estonians, and latvians

are under pressure. we also see that deposit margins are doing good. altogether, we see that net interest income goes up 7%. the key point is to have a competitive offer that suits our customers and we have that. dani: how do you have that besides just giving savers more? what else are you doing there? jens: i'll give you an example. in sweden, on the transaction account you get 0.25, with a savings account you get 1.85 and if you lock in the money for over a year you get 4%. in estonia, latvia and lithuania you can get 4% by looking in for three months so it is a very competitive offer to our customers. dani: does that mean you don't see a peak in net interest income, can it keep gaining? jens: we don't do forecasts of

individual lines. but the key point is we delivered return on equity of 20.4%. and our long-term goal is to have a sustainable return of equity of 15% or more. that means we expect rates to be high for longer. but of course, when interest rates go down, we will be closer to our long-term strategic idea of 15% return on equity. dani: taking a step back, if you're expecting a higher for longer environment, does that make you concerned about the economy? can the nordics and baltics continue to handle higher interest rates this year and potentially next year? jens: if you look on the swedish economy, it is seeing negative growth, of 0.5% to 1% negative. what needs to happen is it needs to be weaker before it can start

going. because inflation has been rather persistent in sweden. we have too high inflation. when you listen to the imf, they are very clear that you take drastic measures to push down inflation so it doesn't stay on that level. dani: the concern is that they push it too much, especially when it comes to property that's unfolding in sweden. i know this is something you are constantly talking with investors about. are you concerned that sweden is heading to something that looks like the early 1990's of a crisis that goes from just the mortgage market, and goes into the wider financial system? jens: the short answer is no. dani: and why is that? [laughter] you've got to give me details here. jens: the key point is the following. we have seen that property management companies, a few of

them had a business model that was built on low interest rates. when interest rates go up, their business model doesn't look so good anymore. and they will take measures to increase equity. they have sold off real estate. they have gained liquidity and disentangled some of their business models. if you look on the bank side, almost everything is collateralized. so we feel that the exposure we have to the real estate sector is in line with our strategy and risk appetite. if you look at our credit losses, we had a cost of risk this quarter of 0.04 basis points, really low. dani: is there a scenario where to get so bad that despite the fact that debt is collateralized, it doesn't matter, it pushes everybody over the edge? for no matter how bad things get, you are protected? jens: you can always figure out

scenarios, but i don't think that will happen. you are seeing that we expect real estate prices do go down 10-15%, and house prices 15-20%. and we see now a decrease of around 10-12% on houses. you can have up or down. but the key point is we have good credit origination standards. and i feel comfortable with the exposure we have. dani: i realize this swedish real estate market has taken up a bit of our time. but i am curious, in your day-to-day, how much of your time does this take up? how much of your conversations with shareholders are about using their concerns on this point? jens: what happens is when i meet investors, usually it goes the same way as you do. you start with net interest income, you talk about

strength and the commercial real estate sector. the more knowledgeable people are about the sector and sweden's strength, the better they come out of it. dani: so you are basically saying that me and your shareholders are brilliant for having the same lines of questioning. that's what my take away will be on this. one other point from me, which i'm sure you also get questions on -- you are still facing possible fines from the doj over your religion role in europe's -- alleged role in europe's largest money laundering scandals, where do you stand on the timeline of figuring out some of this? jens: during this quarter we closed the investigation. we paid fines of around 4 million u.s. dollars. we still have ongoing discussions with doj, sec and

dfas, and i have no further information. what has really stood out is we are always extremely transparent. let's see what happens. if we get the fines, i do not know, and if we get fines, i cannot make an estimate on how large the possible sum would be. dani: thank you so much for joining us. jens henriksson, ceo of swedbank . another banking story. bloomberg has learned that banks in the u.s. are to be hit with to rules on mortgage lending that go beyond international standards. regulators are set to release their plans next week for a sweeping overhaul of capital rules, as part of the u.s. version of vessel three -- basel 3. relators have warned that big u.s. banks could face a 20%

increase in overall capital requirements. morgan stanley reports second-quarter results later, with investors watching for signs of fee stabilization and a decline in trading revenue. don't miss our interview with chair and ceo james gorman at 6:30 p.m. london time. we are looking forward to bank of america second-quarter results also before the market opens. analysts and investors will be watching for a potential slowdown in loan growth and net interest income. challenges in pricing for deposits and migration of customer funds could hurt nii. are they going to have to upgrade, as i was talking to jens henriksson, what they give to borrowers to attract them? jens telling me they have an

attractive offering and they think they will be able to hold on to margins they have. let's see if the european banking story plays out the same. today there will be economic data in the u.s. that will hit early afternoon, 1:30 p.m. u.k. time. we will get retail sales. it is expected to show a 0.5% month on month rise in sales most likely driven by automobiles. the rest of it might be weaker, but might lend itself to inflation coming down. 2:00 p.m. u.s. industrial production data is released, it may show growing weariness among producers. there is morgan stanley, bny mellon and bank of america. it's also the second day of meetings between the eu, caribbean and latin american leaders as part of their first summit since 2015. g20 finance ministers meeting will come to a close today. several prominent officials will speak including the treasury

secretary of america, janet yellen, who we spoke exclusively to yesterday. we will talk more about that g20 finance ministers meeting. we're live in india next. this is bloomberg. ♪

dani: china's flagging economic growth has caught australia's attention. chalmers full bloomberg that inflation remains a defining challenge. >> china is a big piece of the puzzle. when the data out of china is software, that is concerning. we haven't revised our forecasts for our economy, but we're monitoring developments in china very closely. dani: for more on the g20 and the conversations, we're joined by menaka doshi at the meeting in india. how much is inflation and the

weak chinese economic picture dominating the conversations? menaka: it definitely is the centerpiece of where the global economy is heading. you mentioned china. we heard that comment. the tepid recovery in the chinese economy is causing concern in terms of potential impact across the global economy. yesterday we heard on bloomberg from u.s. treasury secretary janet yellen, also speak about the same issue, while saying she did not expect it to prompt recession in the u.s. china at the center of many issues here, including the debt resolution issue that g20 member countries are discussing and hoping to find progress on. china took a while to come to the negotiating table when it came to the debt restructuring program for zambia. there is hope that a similar program could be adopted for other countries if china were

willing. china is a participant in both the headlines into the newsmaking at the g20 and held a bilateral conversation with india earlier this morning, we're awaiting news from what occurred there. dani: there seems to be a lot of excitement that the inflationary regime is turning to update. you look at what happened in the u.s. last week with all of the data coming in, and also about energy prices, is there more confidence that that inflation is being reined in? menaka: in many parts of the world there is more confidence that the days of peaking inflation seem to be behind us. although there is difference in opinion on how long the pauses could last when it comes to central bank interest rate decisions across the world. we heard from the governor of the bank of italy talk about the impact of moderating energy prices on inflation targets.

let's listen in. >> when they end pass through and start reflecting the fall in energy prices, we will see substantial reduction. this is in our projections, the ecb projects that by the end of 2025 it will be 2%, my impression is it will be faster. menaka: moderating inflation will offer relief to every country represented at the g20. and will also offer relief to the variety of debtor relevant programs being discussed here in gujarat, india. dani: menaka doshi joining us from india from the g20. coming up from the g20, more interviews from top newsmakers right here on bloomberg tv. that includes the south african finance minister, the

netherlands central bank governor and the imf managing director. leaders are also gathering in brussels, it's the european union, caribbean and latin america meeting. it's the final day of that summit, the first one since 2015. the reopening of talks concerning a long delayed deal is on the agenda, but tensions have emerged over the condemnation of russia's war in ukraine. let's go to maria tadeo in brussels. one of the interesting threads among this if you have european and latin american leaders talking is china's influence. to what degree is that being discussed? maria: that is one of the major issues. they obviously do not say that out loud. the european union will not say they have this new interest in latin america to counter china, but if you read between the lines, the european union was to rekindle ties but show they can

provide an alternative to china. that is not a secret. we have seen massive expansion from the chinese diplomacy through investment. now to run you to the numbers. just yesterday, the summit is still ongoing and will continue today, but we have a deal announced by the european union. a 45 billion euro package for latin america that will run until 2027. the european union again repeating yesterday this region of the world is crucially strategic for us when it comes to trade, but also climate change. the big issue has to do with mer cosur that has been stuck 20 years in the making. you and i were probably still going to school when this was first debated. it has been stuck for a number of issues. yesterday a statement from mer cosur that includes brazil and

argentina saying they want the conclusion of this deal in 2023. that would put an end to negotiation, which they would argue would be one of the biggest trade deals for both blocs. dani: it is not just china's influence, it is also russia's influence and the divide there, what is the sticking point? maria: dani we have seen this play out majorly at every international summit this year. we've seen it play out at the g20. it has to do with the degree of condemnation of russia when it comes to the war in ukraine. although does this has to do with semantics. the european union wants a clear reference that shows that russia is the aggressor in this case. there is a number of latin american countries like cuba and nicaragua with historical ties with russia that flat out reject any mention of this. you have what one european

diplomat told me is fundamentally the issue. countries like brazil, a real heavyweight in latin america, president lula repeated that the position of the country is that they condemned the war but they are also neutral in this. there is a sticking point in terms of the amount of condemnation for russia. the other key issue is the grain deal. it has been suspended by russia. it will not be reinstated unless their terms are met. it is unclear what those terms would be. then you have a statement from the top european diplomat who says this is an entirely unjustifiable decision, and we see russia quote once again weaponizing hunger. the diplomat urging the kremlin to return to the table and get this grain deal going. it's not just the european union. turkey and president erdogan have made this clear that they want this deal reinstated as soon as possible. dani: that is bloomberg's maria

tadeo in brussels. plenty more ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪

dani: if you were trying to trade the china data yesterday in the early hours of the morning, you could only do it in the equity market through shanghai-listed stocks. you couldn't do it in hong kong because hong kong was closed over a typhoon. hong kong stocks are now trading . we're finally getting that delayed reaction. hstech is tumbling more than 2%. we got data coming from china, that gdp disappointed. we had a downgrade from morgan stanley and goldman saying -- citi rather -- saying growth for china would be 5%, still in line with targets from officials.

that trade finally coming through in hong kong after yesterday being off-line. when it comes to american assets, treasuries are declining, down by about three basis points this morning. after falling yesterday, too. it is the immaculate disinflation crowd come to life. goldman sachs saying after last week's spat of data they are once again downgrading recession expectations to 20%. also saying for a variety of different factors, don't trust the yield curve is a recession indicator. i love this because we love you talk about how equity traders are in lala land, and the mediating bond traders know better, maybe this time they don't know better. maybe equities are pricing a soft landing that are right. futures are up 0.5%. they ended higher, will european

equities were led lower by chinese stocks. activision, increased hope that a deal would be done after positive talks with u.k. regulators. however people familiar saying the deal will not close today. today was the deal deadline day. ford also tumbling after they had to cut the cost of their dvds for their f-150. we have a lot more coverage from our g20 finance ministers and central banks meeting in india. stay with us on bloomberg tv for that. we will speak with the morgan stanley ceo james gorman at 6:30 p.m. london time. this is bloomberg. ♪

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impacted and affected, and at risk of hiv. the rocket fund takes all of the work that we're doing, all over the world, and looks at the most effective ways, to get resources to them, to get services to them. the idea that we have saved five million people's lives, it's overwhelming. it's everything. anna: this is "bloomberg markets: today." i am anna edwards in london. mark cudmore joins us from

in