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tv   Bloomberg Daybreak Asia  Bloomberg  July 20, 2023 7:00pm-9:00pm EDT

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shery: we are counting down to asia's major market open. haidi: the top stories this hour, asia is set for a weak open after worries put the stock
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rally on pause. u.s. labor market resilient is adding to bets on further rate hikes beyond next week. the senate voting to block china from buying oil from u.s. stockpiles with beijing increasingly reliant on russian fuel. and blackstone becomes the first private equity firm to manage $1 trillion, even as the dealmaking slump weighs on second quarterly results. shery: look at how u.s. futures are trading early in the asian session, pretty muted after stocks lagging in the regular session. dow slightly higher. s&p 500 falling on disappointing tech earnings. the nasdaq 100 losing more than 2%. we also have resilient labor market data. jobless claims numbers came out and unexpectedly dropped. we have treasury yields higher across the curve. this as traders are perhaps pricing in more tightening among from the federal reserve. with the dollar reversing those earlier losses, we saw a lot of
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volatility in oil prices, slightly higher in the asian session. haidi: it is a softer session in asia we are setting up for. a lot of central-bank uncertainties are part of that play, particularly with australia, the super resilient labor market numbers of yesterday calling into question a heightened expectation of what the rba does and its next meeting. over 50% the likelihood that markets are pricing in for another hike. broadly weaker open, both u.s. equities and treasuries fell. tech earnings. we are seeing kiwi stocks off those session lows, pretty much flat at the moment. nikki futures trading in chicago are certainly flat. we are watching what happens in china. the muted, i dare say disappointed reaction to the private sector push from the government and the joint pledge
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we had looking to weigh. the concerns over sluggish economic growth and what happens next when it comes to the property sector. watching currencies, a bit of weakness in the aussie dollar. we are seeing other dollar pairs trending in the other direction. yen strength at the moment, now under the 140 handle ahead of japan cpi numbers and some repricing when it comes to whether the boj will tweak ycc at their meeting next week. shery: the senate has voted to block china from buying oil from emergency u.s. stockpiles. strategic reserves are at a 40 year low following the biden administration's 180 million barrel drawdown to help tame oil prices. for more let's bring in bloomberg's su keenan. su: this is part of a must pass defense bill. that certainly raises the
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attention it is getting. it also has to do with the biden administration's handling of the strategic oil reserves, another controversy. but it is an amendment to this must pass bill that is similar in the senate to the one that was in the house. it will actually ban china from buying oil from the u.s. emergency supplies, or spr. this scrutiny and caution comes amid a renewed focus on the spr, which is at a 40 year low following the biden administration's unusual drawdown of 180 million barrels from the reserve back when russia invaded ukraine. it was used last year to tame oil prices. the measure which would ban china from getting involved in any purchase was passed by a vote of 85-14. so a very strong majority there. it is similar to a bill that passed the house in january that would prohibit the sale of u.s. oil from the reserve to any
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company under the control of the chinese communist party. it would also ban the export of any crude oil from the spr to china. not new that the lawmakers are trying to do this, but certainly a step closer to being done. the senate version of the bill would likely be finalized in august before the major recess. the spr was created in the aftermath of the arab oil embargo in the 1970's. it was a u.s. security measure to protect the country. the biden white house had used it before the november elections last year, the midterms, to ensure there would be enough oil in the u.s. to perhaps tame inflation. it was a critical move at the time, so it remains rather controversial as the biden administration vows to restore oil to the spr. that is being pointed out by
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republicans to be taking place at a very slow pace. shery: in the meantime we are seeing energy interdependence between russia and china grow. su: if you look at the latest statistics, interesting that china imports key energy components, mainly crude oil and coal, surged to an all-time high last month. they are swallowing record amounts of russian oil. this is coming as western countries that would be buyers are shunning shipments from moscow. it involves the import of thermal and coking coal and has a lot to do with the wars going on and china. china remains an important ally for exports of both oil and coal from moscow despite the rest of the world turning their back on these products. if you look how oil performed in the past 24 hours, the issue
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that is affecting price is something more technical. that is very low liquidity. we are seeing some of the lowest liquidity for oil trading, at least in wti since january. we are coming up on the august expiration of the latest contract. trading is more volatile. did see more stimulus in china with the mortgage buying. that would normally be supportive of price, but prices were all over the map in the latest session. haidi: that was bloomberg's su keenan with the details of one of the stories we are following. another top story, the wall street journal is reporting that hackers linked the beijing accessed the email account of the u.s. investor to china and top state department official -- ambassador to china and top state to permit official -- state department official to
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asia. stephen engle is in hong kong. what do we know so far? stephen: this is a wall street journal story. we are trying to core operate it with our own reporting -- corroborate it with our own reporting. microsoft says this hack originated in china and exploited a backdoor flaw through the outlook emails systems. it was reported by u.s. officials as targeting commerce and state department officials, including the commerce secretary gina raimondo. now the wall street journal is saying this ambassador in beijing also had his emails targeted, as well as the point man for china affairs at the state department, the assistant secretary of state for east asia, who traveled multiple times to beijing ahead of antony blinken's visit. he went with blinken to beijing also. if the chinese allegedly did
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this hack, they would be able to potentially glean sensitive information the of those visits. blinken arriving on the tarmac of the beijing airport, and at the bottom of the stairs being graded by his ambassador in china, nicholas burns, who has some sensitive information in potentially classified emails. some sources telling the wall street journal that perhaps unclassified not so sensitive emails could have been potentially accessed. the wall street journal story appears to focus on a small number of individuals who however are responsible for the u.s.-china relationship. that is why those individuals were potentially targeted. when we learned the commerce secretary's emails were potentially hacked by the chinese, the minister of foreign
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affairs in beijing was asked about it. they said the u.s. should account for its cyberattacks as soon as possible rather than spread. information and -- spread false information and divert attention. the wall street journal says these alleged hacks from china began in may and were not discovered until mid-june. whether they are still ongoing is yet to be determined. we have not gotten a comment from any u.s. officials yet on this latest revelation from the wall street journal. haidi: stephen joining us from hong kong. another story we are, watching treasury secretary janet yellen meeting with vietnam's prime minister in hanoi. yellen is in vietnam to promote trade ties as part of the biden administration's push to reduce u.s. reliance on china. yellen said vietnam is, in her words, a key partner in advancing of free and open indo
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pacific. shery: coming up, our exclusive interview with ecuador's president garrett lasso -- g uillermo lasso who is seeking to reform capital markets. haidi: affinity investment manages tells us why they are cautious on committees that are overly rely on china. -- on companies that are overly reliant on china. more on their market outlook next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> the next time there is a serious selloff, which is not just a three week affair, there are a number of aspects from the behavioral to that the fed is not your friends, and in fact will not come to rescue the market in the same way. >> the ongoing geopolitical concerns investors have around the world, it is still on everyone's mind what will happen with u.s.-china. i think that is the biggest question mark as we continue to see a lot of the strained relationships continue between the u.s. and china. particularly around taiwan. what will happen with taiwan? is there going to be a potential war between china and the u.s. with regards to taiwan? that is a very complicated question on people's minds and
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could be a black swan event. >> the biggest concern overall is a clash between the haves and have-nots. in the western world, the clash will be between the older people and younger people. the older people are living longer and longer but the retirement benefits are not going to keep up with what they need. the younger people will have to say we don't want to work that much harder just so you have a better retirement. haidi: hearing some guest voices talking about the next big risk facing investors. our next guest says she is tilting away from defenses, adding more cyclical names to the portfolio. she is an investment specialist at affinity management. part of the problem is you are looking at the risks of too much exposure to the u.s. and risks of exposure to china when the macro outlook is uncertain. where are you finding the more diversified opportunity? >> to date we have had the
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magnificent seven, it is definitely broader now. i think the last time i was here , more than 100% was the magnificent seven and now it is 72% of year-to-date returns. it is an interesting time where you can look beyond the seven and see particularly the cyclical names starting to see upside, particularly seeing that earnings growth that we look for. we are definitely finding some a and exciting opportunities, not just -- some new and exciting opportunities, not just in tech. haidi: give us examples of what the maddox look appealing to you -- thematics look appealing to you. elfreda: i think it is still quite uncertain at this point. i think the risks are there that we will see a policy mistake and things could look different in a
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few months. but some of the new companies that we have added to our portfolios would be, for example, in the medical technologies space, health care, tilting away from those defensive names. hospitals do the more exciting growth. one of those stocks is a company that manufactures artificial heart valves. this in particular is a sector that we think has a lot of structural growth ahead. we think you can grow from 10 billion to 20 billion market in 2028. for example, that is a company that we think has margins that will grow and is starting to see some really nice increases in procedures, both the covid lull. another company i can mention is a stock exchange looking toward
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financials. that is a company that is not just the u.k.'s largest stock exchange as the name implies, but it has a whole range of data analytics businesses, as well as the ftse russell. in partnership with microsoft we think there is a lot of exciting growth ahead for that company. those are two more diverse examples. shery: here in the u.s. there is a concern about the breath of the market rally we have seen. how exposed are you to the u.s. markets as opposed to overseas? haidi: in terms of the breadth
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of the market, how much is there on the opportunities that might continue to play out in the u.s. market, particularly if we are talking about further gains for ai? is that a theme you are exploring lower down the value chain with companies that have not seen you for monetization possibilities yet? elfreda: it definitely is a theme that will have many leagues in the future. one of the things in the current reporting season is that some of these ai names rallying on the back of the story is saying perhaps ai is not enough to give you the growth the market is expecting in the shorter term. we remain selective within ai. microsoft is still a standout for us after the copilot announcement this week, but also nvidia is another winner. we are looking beyond that, but i think people probably still
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need to -- haidi: microsoft, telus why that is a stock -- tell us why that is a stock you are enthusiastic about. elfreda: microsoft in the near term can benefit. you can see it come through in the earnings, not just in five or six years, but in the next year or two. one of the things announced early on is teams premium. this week they announced copilot. that is running out ai across the office space applications. their assets got really big upgrades not just this year but for the next few years. haidi: great to have you with us, client portfolio manager and investment strategist. you can get around up of the stories you need to know to get your day going in today's edition of daybreak. terminal subscribers can get that at dayb in the bloomberg anywhere app. customize settings so you get
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the news on the industries and assets that matter to you. this is bloomberg. ♪ if you're trying to get a view of the whole organizational financial health and you're trying to do that through multiple systems, that makes it very, very cumbersome. ♪ it's not just tech, it's not just people. it's how they work together to provide that experience to the customer. as a finance organization that is what you want to do. ♪
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shery: the ftc has paused its in-house trial against microsoft's acquisition of activision blizzard, opening the door to potential settlement talks. let's get more details from bloomberg's vonnie quinn. vonnie: it is a step forward for the companies. the ftc has an in-house trial process. it was do to that hearing in august. the company's asked the ftc to withdraw that. under the agency's rules, it has to withdraw if it has lost its case in federal court, which it did last week. that was a surprise, but the court has allowed the deal to go
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through, for the merger to happen, while an appeals process is underway. they ftc cannot stop the merger from happening just because it is appealing the court decision. it is a loss for the ftc. it means the companies can persuade ftc commissioners to either drop their objection completely or just settle this somehow, agree to a small divestiture. shery: is that the worst case scenario? vonnie: the worst case scenario would take a long time. in the worst case scenario, the ftc could opt to restart the in-house case, even if the merger closes. imagine if that were to happen, they get past the u.k. competition authority, then the ftc does reopen the case in its in-house judicial system after the merger has happened. then the merger would have to be unwound. we are talking about a long time away for that. several decisions have to be
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taken before that even becomes an option. shery: given how high-profile this is, companies have been watching what is happening in this deal. what does the environment for deals look like? how could that be impacted depending on what happens here? vonnie: the ftc released 13 guidelines for companies to be watchful for. the ftc had a terrible track record over the last years, even under this chief who has been the biggest trust buster in decades in the u.s., who decided to go ahead with the appeal of the federal decision even though normally when you lose a case at the ftc you just dismiss the case. it has not been a great record for her or for the regulators in the u.s. over the last two years. the justice apartments also lost a bid to block the united health merger and if you remember at&t's time warner merger. it is not a great run of luck for the enforcers. these new guidelines which the
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white house has endorsed include things like mergers should not further trend toward concentration, mergers should not entrench a dominant position. those rules are out there. the judicial system is actually very pro-corporate america right now. shery: bloomberg's vonnie quinn with the latest on the deal's landscape. let's get to the other stories we are following on the corporate front. tsmc cut its annual revenue forecast and postponed the start of production at its signature project in arizona until 2025. the cut in revenue projection comes after the chipmaker posted its first quarterly profit decline in four years. the delay of the arizona project underscores the difficulties in chipmaking in the u.s. this bite washington's insistence on -- despite washington's insistence on reducing reliance on asian facilities. a capital partner has raised $29 billion for the largest ever
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buyout fund, defying a challenging fundraising environment. the european private equity firms as it dickered agreements from new and returning investors. cvc began raising its ninth buyout fund in january and initially targeted $27.8 billion. wanda bonds have seen a rally as a key unit told creditors it is finalizing the sale of an asset so it can make debt payments. our sources say the group plans to complete the transaction as soon as this week. the company plans to use the proceeds to repay its bond due on july 23. take a look at how currencies are trading at the moment, after we saw the dollar gaining ground and reversing those earlier losses to trade stronger against major peers in the new york session. this coming after we had that strong jobs data, or at least the resilient labor market data. we are talking about that unexpected drop in weekly
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initial jobless claims. we are seeing pressure in the asian session. look at the other side of the trade, the aussie is holding steady after rising as much as 1.1% in the previous session. that would be the most in a week. we had a strong jobs print in australia as well. not much reaction to potentially more stimulus from china. we saw the yuan jumping in the previous session as well. we have plenty more to come on "bloomberg daybreak: asia."
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shery: we have breaking news out of japan. we are getting the cpi numbers out of tokyo and the core cpi number is coming in at 3.3% growth. when it comes to the month of june. it is coming in line with
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expectations. and a slight acceleration from the previous month. you take a look at the headline national number for japan for the month of drilling, acceleration -- month of june, acceleration of 3.3% and slightly above what economists expected. take away and food and you get core cpi for japan. growth of 4.2% for japan's inflation for the month of june. we have seen these cooling price signs for japan when it comes to household appliances and some services. at the same time continue to see import cost increase and that is feeding through the economy. you can see the inflation number for the core price figure has accelerated from the previous month to 3.3%. that is perhaps one of the indicators the boj will be indicating -- will be looking at
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when it meets next week. haidi: it is interesting all of the verbal managing of expectations we have heard from the governor and he has been consistent. still failing to stop the speculation we will continue to see in japanese bond markets and broader equity markets that we will be getting a tweak to why cc sooner rather than later. we heard from an of finance official saying they will not tweak why cc at least at next week's meeting. this is the set up when it comes to broader asian markets as we go into this final friday session. sidney futures looking flat, a 10th of 1% higher. there is consideration of what the rba will do next given the resilience of yesterday's labor market numbers. bloomberg intelligence thinks the gems gains adding to a case for the august high. inflation cooling in the second quarter, even that will not stop
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the last leg of tightening from the reserve bank. singapore nikkei futures, not much of a reaction to the cpi numbers. shery: let's bring in asia effects and rights reporter matthew burgess for more on the fx picture especially with the japanese yen holding onto gains given the core cpi number exceeded economist asked him it's -- economist estimates. we saw inflation easing in may but it now seems to be picking up again for the month of june. >> it is a very good question. honestly cpi, this number only added into the mix of things the boj is looking at. a single print does not make policy. as the trend boj are looking for in something you can leverage off and whether this cost push will be sustainable. we heard the governor say the bank will continue to ease policy but he did what a caveat
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that if there is a shift and expectations relative to the price target, that could cause a change. this will feed into that comment that he made and is a sure sign they are looking at it and is something markets need to be aware of. nationally, dollar-yen expect volatility of that is covering the boj meeting. you certainly have some traders seeing this meeting as live whether the boj makes a move or not, that is -- only the governor knows that and will find out next week. haidi: have we seen the peak of the volatility when it comes to dollar-yen? as the dollar coming off perhaps it's peaks sufficient to give breathing space to the yen now? >> for the moment there is a little bit of breathing space. we have not had any japanese
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officials jawboning at. they are going to be a little happy at the moment it is a low 140 again. realistically, you would expect dollar-yen to be climbing higher. the recent dip we had that would have been a sigh of relief from japanese officials, that dip we had in dollar-yen has not broken the rising yen that has been in place since the middle of this year. we have the federal reserve which is the bigger player at the moment. there is currently a shift higher in global interest rate tied and jb yield -- jgb yields need to follow that.
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dollar-yen -- if the yields do not follow that, those who bought the recent dip we have seen, they will be rewarded for hanging on with new highs. haidi: matthew burgess as we get the reaction to the japan cpi print and how that is going to play into the boj decision next week. let's get to some of the other major stories we are watching from around the world. treasury secretary janet yellen met with vietnam's prime minister. she is in vietnam to promote trade ties as part of the biden administration's push to reduce reliance on china. she said vietnam is in her words a key partner in advancing a free and open indo pacific. ukraine says any ships heading to russian ports may be military targets in tit-for-tat response to an earlier threat from moscow against vessels you name re--- using the craney in response to
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the u.s. as russia has attacked ukrainian storage facilities. the -- escalating the rest to global food markets. shery: ecuador president plans to issue at least six new legal decrees and seek major changes to the country's capital market before he leaves office. in an exclusive interview he told me he expects duty-free access for 90% of ecuador's u.s. exports. >> i believe we have made progress. on one hand because of china we have achieved negotiation which resulted in cash flow savings of 140 million dollars until 2025. we advanced the renegotiation of contracts reducing the commitment to sell $100 million of oil to china to 50 million. we improved the price of the oil
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delivered china. the free-trade agreement was negotiated until 2022 and signed in 23. all of these demonstrate a strong relationship with china. united states, we have also signed an agreement and understanding between the ministry of defense of ecuador and the united states department of defense. it is a memorandum of understanding to be fulfilled in the next seven years. it provides support for strengthening the armed forces especially in the fight against drug trafficking. we have maintained a good relationship with the united states at this moment. in the senate and house there is a build called idea dedicated to ecuador aiming to align the trade benefits that countries currently enjoy with ecuador. super export products are on id percent -- around 90% and would enter the united states without tariffs.
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shery: when are we going to see duty-free access to the united states market? >> it depends on the united states. it is not a process that depends on ecuador. senator menendez has supported the legislation. i believe things are moving in the right direction but i do not give a specific date. shery: before you leave government? >> i hope so too. shery: you expect the next congress to ratify your fta with china? >> we hope that happens because it would be highly beneficial for ecuador. imagine having access to a marked it millions of inhabitants. shery: your government is trying to issue several new decrees with force of law. what will be your priorities to get it passed by the constitutional court and will the court deem them urgent enough?
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>> there are important issues like job generation. the injection of the free-trade zones bill by the constitutional court is a setback unfortunately. the second project i sent, the tax reform that reduces taxes for the middle-class by a total of 100 any $5 million was approved which is a positive development. i understand there are two other projects currently in the process as well. shery: which decrees are related to capital markets? >> we have a capital markets bill already to modernize capital markets. that and in and of itself is a big project we are working on. we have other economic projects that ready that generate income to the treasury. shery: our exclusive
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conversation with the president of ecuador. we have more to come on daybreak: asia. this is bloomberg. ♪ 76% of 23andme health customers surveyed reported taking healthier actions. because they know health isn't just a future state. health happens now.
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start your dna-powered health journey today with personalized insights from 23andme. fabulous surroundings... but everyone's looking at their phones for financial insights from merrill. is he hailing a ride to the concert hall? no. he's making sure his portfolio and retirement plans work in harmony. they want to adopt a child and build a new home. so they're talking numbers with their merrill adviser. she's not researching her next role. she's learning how to handle market ups and downs without the drama. personalized advice so impressive your money never stops working for you with merrill. a bank of america company. haidi: the fifa women's world cup has just kicked off in australia and new zealand with a couple of spectacular matches overnight. the event already shattering records. 42,000 people for the opening
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game. a new record for international football match being played there, men's or women's. within 75,000 fans packed out cities stadium for australia's largest ever crown for a women's football match. this port has a long way to go to reach other important milestones. the women's team are reporting for a $150 million prize pool. still far short of the $440 million the men's teams competed for last year. joining us is a former board member of football strong and a pioneering team manager and administrator. great to have you with us. i think while it is important to mark and celebrate the milestones that have been achieved including the landmark collective bargaining agreement reached by the matilda's, we still have to recognize we are a long way off from equality or equity. >> we are still a long way off.
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the prize money for the women's competition is a quarter of the men's. it is still better than it was 10 years ago when women were just paid for the first time. in 1995 they started to get paid and then there was a increase after that. some people say you should be pleased you're getting any sort of payments but it does not resonate very well with the players. they believe they are doing the same job as the men. they are attracting great audiences in terms of bums on seats as we showed last night with the opening game of the matilda's. the viewership around the world for this event will be in its bacons. way to make sure the women are properly recognized because of the money they are generating for an organization such as fifa. haidi: you talk about just as skilled as men, just as watchable and compelling if not more so.
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the french football ad has driven those points in powerful and visual way. it is not just something affecting australia. even some of the big soccer nations like england and spain, there women's football seeing this kind of tension with their football federation. how do you build on the momentum of this world cup to be able to drive closer to equality? >> it is interesting we are in a group with nigeria and canada going through major issues with natural -- with national federations in terms of conditions the female players are experiencing as employees of the organizations. they are struggling to get equal pay. they're struggling to get equal access to appropriate training and competition environments. you alluded to the average heisman the french did. there is so much going on in terms of raising awareness for greater equality and the
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matilda's themselves did that this week with the launch of their own advertisement through the professional footballers association. whilst they are reasonably comfortable compared to where we were 10 years ago with their terms and conditions of employment there is still in a flood of nations around the world struggling to get any kind of traction with her federations to be taken seriously and to be given not necessarily equal rights but equitable rights and equitable payments. jamaicans for example struggled to even get some funding. they are doing fundraising. we have moved beyond the days when women paid to play to represent their countries. they are getting paid quite a lot of money. a player like sam kerr for example is earning over $.5 million. we think that is fantastic but it is nothing compared to male players of her sort of stature. the nigerians have come here,
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very controversial because they haven't played -- have not been paid for two years. similar things are happening with some of the smaller nations. the advertisement the matilda's did in terms of their legacy for this world cup is to try to bring the rest of the more underprivileged countries up to a level that is at least comparable and suitable. shery: when it comes to monetary compensation a lot of it comes from sponsorships from government support as well. how much are we seeing in terms of visibility and popularity of women sports around the world? >> i think it is huge. i'm often asked what is the difference between this world cup in previous world cups i have to say i am unable to post -- able to boast the fact it is my seventh women's will appeared i've been to the last five. this one being on home soil shared with our friends from new zealand across the tasman sea is
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absolutely huge. my main point about the difference is not necessarily just in the number of countries that are playing. we have gone from 12 teams in finals to 32 now. it is the visibility of the players, the teams through social media, through a whole range of various campaigns particularly by the sponsors. there are sponsors lining up to support teams like our matilda's an individual players like sam kerr and ellie carpenter and a range of others. in the u.s. you see a major push by the american players themselves led by legends such as megan ruffino who refused to play -- make and in who refused to play unless there was pay. i was in the stadium four years ago when the chant ring around the stadium for equal pay, equal play. equal play, equal pay. i do something we need to keep
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pressing. it is happening for countries like germany and sweden and new zealand and the usa. other countries that are debutantes to this world cup, we are now at two teams in the finals, debutantes such as panama, haiti are just way behind. struggling big time in terms of the quality of training and playing environments, the gear that they get. uniforms and everything else. our team has gone out for a call to action to try to ensure those countries are elevated and the national federations take them much more seriously than they have in the past. shery: you mentioned -- haidi: mentioned megan. she is one of the most compelling players that has come out in the games. obviously qatar was a difficult one for a number of high profile players. is it important to look at it in
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its entirety of the issues that need to be elevated? >> i think the message from qatar was women's rights are human rights. we had a whole campaign around the rights issues in qatar and saudi arabia. it was almost all dishes of fifa to suggest visit saudi would be a sponsor for this particular tournament when we know that the women's rights within saudi arabia and other western asian countries as well as rights for the rambo family, lgbt iq families are just appalling. there were some very poor decisions made by fifa they had to retract. i think players like megan rapinoe voice our concerns very articulately. we are going to miss her. this is her last tournament. probably marta from brazil, her
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last tournament. she made an outstanding statement after the last game in france 2019 where she basically put it to the brazilian federation they have to do more to support their players. who would have thought a football nation like brazil would be leaving there women's teams way behind the status of their men's? we have the women using their voices and using a platform to express this issue about the lack of the quality and i admire them for doing that. haidi: so great to have you with us. we appreciate your time and insights. former board member at football australia. much more to come on daybreak: asia. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> the deal market feels like it is unfreezing a bit. if you look at our credit area, our direct lending, our pipeline is up more than doubled and where it was 90 days ago. i think as people feel better about the overall picture, a little more certainty, i think we will see deal volume pick up as we move forward. shery: blackstone president and coo jonathan gray. the company also says opportunities to build out offerings for high net worth offerings in japan.
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blackstone wants in april with iowa securities. let's get more from finbarr flynn. what are the risks of investing in the fund and what is lacks done saying? >> good morning. i think it is fair to say this is a high risk but high return fund. i think the head of credit at blackstone mentioned 12% in terms of returns for the loans. for investors that means about 8% annualized returns. not getting those kind of returns in court loans unless you are going into speculative grade unrated securities. the risks are we have very high rates across the world. this fund is based in the states and the lending it does. the big serna is will we see a wave of defaults? will that undercut loans and credits like these?
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lacks done they have diversified. they are in sectors that are hopefully less exposed to such defaults. these loans are secured. that is their point. they think they have built a fund resilient and we shall have to see how the next month's workout. haidi: lending to firms in the u.s. and funding is based on that. they say about doing anything more in asia? >> this fund is in u.s. loans but obviously blackstone is huge. we have that story today. they are huge in private equity. they are piggybacking on the back of the private equity deals in part. there credit and insurance
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assets are almost $300 billion. they have said as they go into these markets across the region they intend to extend the lending. in japan rates are still very low. they do see an opportunity in the future. haidi: credit markets editor finbarr flynn with the latest. market opens in sydney, seoul and tokyo are next. this is bloomberg. ♪ the first time you made a sale online with godaddy
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shery: this is daybreak: asia. we are coming down to asia's major market opens. after a bit of a mixed finish on wall street had investors digesting disappointing tech earnings but at the same time we had resilient labor data.
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on top of that in about -- half an hour ago we had inflation numbers out of japan. traders waking >> at the same time, we have resilient labor data. on top of that, in about half an hour, we have inflation numbers out of japan. asia and traders making up. we will have to go stronger than expected figures. twice the repressing of central-bank expectations is a broad thing here. you mention to the labor numbers out of the u.s. being resilient. that leading into fed expectations. this is this a picture for the rba. another hike at the next meeting for the jobs numbers yesterday. the stickiness of japan inflation to contend as well. >> the core consumer price
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number. a gain of 3.3% year on year for japan. the nikkei under pressure. we saw volatility in the currency space. given that we are headed to the boj policy meeting, this is going to work very closely. there is a positive given that it came in a bit stronger than economists expected. we had seen the korean won also strengthen in the previous session.
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we are seeing a weakening against the u.s. dollar. this coming at a time when we also had breaking news out of south korea. the first 20 days per south korean exports fell 15.2% year on year. this is a much bigger -- bigger contraction than the first 20 days of the previous month. this really gives an indication of where external demand is going and how that is affecting south korea's trade picture because the 20 day import number is also a contraction of 28% which leaves a deficit of 1.361 billion dollars for south korea in the first 20 days of this month and the question was when will be see signs of a bottoming out for south korean trade? perhaps not this month. >> no.
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especially not with more china stimulus significantly incoming to try to arrive that key aspect of external demand. shifting over to how the open is in sydney, it is a static open. pretty flat when it comes to the asx 200. we had see some moves when it comes to the start of trading in australian bonds opening this morning, tracking treasuries fell after the unemployment numbers came through. we saw that yield on the 10-year yield, we saw that move up as well as a significant move up when it comes to the 10 year there as well. that repricing when it comes to the rba is going interesting. the national australia bank saying that it means the rba has the opportunity to take out more inflation reducing insurance without having to worry about unemployment significant the rising given how resilient yesterday's data really was. the aussie dollar jeff kilburg intelligence saying that even in the situation we see further,
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u.s. dollar weakness, the aussie may not see a straight way to the top given some of the uncertainties over the china growth aspect. crude is one to watch. it is a really mixed fund mental picture. that has not been made of any clear with the u.s., adopting that amendment on thursday to block china from the u.s. emergency stockpiles. and that -- and a memo to the must pass a bill similar to what -- similar to the one in the house. they were following the biden administration's drawdown to help team oil prices. that in the wake of russia's invasion of ukraine. >> let's bring in the guest to expects the boj to keep the yield curve contained -- we can see the pressure building for
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them to tweak and eventually scrapped the policy. with us is a senior investment strategist of standard chartered wealth management. there is even more pressure when you continue to see core cpi coming in above the boj 2% target. at the same time, you are seeing it come in stronger than economists had expected. >> absolutely. if you look at the headline number, that is of 3%. if you look at the core inflation that excludes energy prices as well, that is over 4%. it is fascinating to think that on the one hand where as u.s. core cpi is in the four handle and we have rates of 520 5%, the bank of japan on the other hand has rates in the negative territory and is still doing qe. i think given those comments, it is quit likely to the bank of japan will stay put but i think from a markets perspective, it
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is the revised cps work as we will be getting with the policy decision because that could help us get a better sense of what could be the timing and terms of the change. >> if we are headed toward an eventual tweak in the why sisi, is this still a good time to jump into japanese markets even after the rally have seen so far? would you stay away? at the same time, you hear about -- you hear about all this optimism and how this fundamentally change the picture for that market. >> absolutely. i think if you are a deli built investor, i think it is still a good time to enter into japanese equities. we also believe the recent improvements of steps taken toward improving corporate governance along with the increase in share buybacks is a big tailwind for japanese equities.
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japan is seeing growth surprise to the upside. that we think should translate or feed into stronger corporate earnings compared to market expectations. from evaluations perspective, when you put all this together, we think it makes sense to have exposure to japanese equities. >> has your view on china change? this is broadly positive messaging. it is not the big banks team is back is that we might have expected in the past. >> what you have seen from china is broadly in line with expectations so we won't get a big bang stimulus from chinese authorities. it is going to be a series of targeted measures. that is what has come through.
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clearly market sentiment and investor sentiment has been scarred over the past couple of years given the raft of regulatory measures we have taken. we think it will take time for investors to begin that confidence and we need to see evidence of economic data recovery but from a valuation perspective, we think chinese equities are extremely cheap. investor sentiment seems to be on the extreme. we think over the next 12 months, chinese equities should outperform. >> do you see for the downside? >> in the near term, yes. everything about the key drivers for any currency pair, it boils down to the real interest rate and we probably expect the fed to hike rates next week. the pboc is easing policy and we inspected just -- we expect to
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see it ease further. over the next month or so, it is possible that the delicacy and edge. but we are also seeing is authorities are coming in with stronger measures, stronger fixes to prevent a rapid depreciation. on a 12 month horizon, once the view of chinese growth rebound picks up we think there will be a depreciation we see and we have a target of 7.0 to 7.08. >> you say in your notes that you push back the possibility of a u.s. recession to 2024. what does that do to the greenback? and also to markets? especially stocks in the u.s.. >> i think if you start with stocks, we have a great equities and some of the concerns have been focused on since the start
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of the year. slowing growth, slowing economic data. a potential decline in margins are still in play but in the near term, we see that resilience in the labor markets and the momentum we are seeing in equities could help propel u.s. equities a bit further. i think if we see a further rally in u.s. equities, that is a great opportunity to get some profit given the rally we have seen in the u.s. and so we prefer asian equities alone japanese equities because we think this makes for a much more compelling case on the 12 month horizon. >> always great to have you with us. still have, cutting the full year outlook of july, we will be discussing the impact of the global chip sector but first, next week's boj meeting is
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shaping up to be a potential problem. how all this could feed into the possibility of a why sisi tweak as we get that policy pressure voting in the markets. that is next, this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ 76% of 23andme health customers surveyed
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>> we are seeing the nikkei losing more than a percent, being that lower by information tech materials. this of course is a second day of losses for japanese stocks as we are now seeing the japanese yen gaining ground and billy holding onto gains. while the 10 year bond yield has now edged up toward that bank of japan cafe percent ceiling. we are expecting that meeting to happen next week. this coming at a time when we have japan's consumer prices advancing at a faster pace in june, another sign of sticky inflation at of the boj meeting. chris we had seen cpi's easing in may. this time around for the month of june, it actually exceeded
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expectations so how is the boj going to look at this? because i think today's figures are largely in line. we did see a slightly faster overall inflation figure. but generally, we were expecting haven't seen earlier tokyo data a bit of a pickup in the core figure that the boj is looking at. i think it is largely in line with expectations. the yen has picked up a little bit. just a fraction. i don't think this is a game changing result but what it does show is inflation is still strong. still way above the inflation target. and we have this boj meeting next week. there has been some speculation swimming around of possible change. why is that?
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mainly because the boj forecast for this fiscal year is totally out of whack with the numbers. they are saying it is going to be averaging something like 1.8% this fiscal year. people are familiar with the -- they have told us already that they are expecting officials to consider raising the forecast above 2%. the focus next week may be on what the boj forecast the price to be in the next fiscal year because for the moment they are saying 2%, if it is still above 2%, the forecast over two years, above 2% or at 2%, why continue with stimulus? that has been feeding speculation but his comments
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were interpreted by markets as fairly solid on continuing with easing but the consensus has always been that the big change is still a ways off. i am talking about changing negative interest rates and scrapping that. that is a ways off. we are talking about a tweak to why sisi. it is less than a fifth now who think they are going to have to do this compared with a third -- as many as a third just a month ago. the consensus is no change next week at the boj meeting. i think that risk of why sisi cannot be ruled out -- cannot be ruled out at this stage. the access the the email account of the u.s. ambassador to china
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and the top state department for east asia. this is just the latest development in a series of alleged tax. microsoft says this has originate from china. stephen engle is in hong kong. what do we know? >> this is a wall street journal story. hundreds of thousands of emails potentially could be accessed in the microsoft outlook email program or system. that was obviously reported a couple of weeks ago and about a week ago when officials from the united states confirmed gina raimondo's inbox had been compromised. now we are learning from his other reports that the man you see here who is the ambassador to china had his inbox potentially compromised and hacked as well as the top man on east asian affairs and who
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really lined up and did a lot of the back channel work leading up to antony blinken's visit to beijing a couple of weeks ago. that is the assistant secretary, daniel craig bring. and when that story came out last week about gina raimondo, microsoft had said the origin of the hack was most likely mainland china. also, we are seeing from the new york times story it was just a targeted attack using copper my security keys but it was traditional espionage according to the source of the u.s. -- the sources the new york times quoted. it would not be too much of a surprise. i'm not saying it is not a surprise because of the allegations of china but it comes at a time when there has been increased engagement on the
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diplomatic front between china and the united states. and potentially if it was hackers from china, the sources would say they would be able to potentially clean some sense of information that would help them obvious to prepare for those meetings with antony blinken. as well as the climate envoy, john kerry. all those officials visiting beijing most recently. still trying to corroborate the story right now. we are still waiting for any kind of official confirmation or denial from china as well as from the united states but again, a developing story, the ministry of foreign affairs, i believe it was around the 13th of july when the story first appeared, it essentially said the u.s. should account for its cyberattacks as soon as possible rather than spread false information and divert attention. stay tuned to this story.
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quick stephen engle there in hong kong with the latest and you can get around up of that story or the other top stories in order to get your day going on this tradition of daybreak. it is on your terminals. also on the mobile in the bloomberg anywhere app and you can customize settings on the industries and assets that you care about. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> ecuador's president says he plans to issue at least six new legal degrees and seek major reforms to the capital market before he leaves office. i spoke discursively with gamma who is here for talks on duty-free access to u.s. markets.
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>> i believe we have made progress. on one hand because of china, we have achieved renegotiation that touched -- ended up and cash flows of 140 million dollars until 20 35. we also advance petroleum contracts, reducing the commitment to sell 100 million barrels of oil to china to 50 million. at the same time, we improve the price of the oil delivered to china. all these milestones combined with the vaccine agreements. we also decide in agreement with united states. it is a memorandum, and understanding with 169 objectives to be fulfilled in the next seven years. we provide support for the armed
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forces also, in other fields, we have maintained a very good relationship with the united states at this moment. there is a built called idea that aims to align the trade benefits that countries currently enjoy with ecuador. most of our export products are 90%. >> when will we see duty-free access to the u.s. market? >> it depends on the united states. >> tomorrow, i have been a great support of their supporter of ecuador dedicated to the country last year as well. i believe things are moving in the right direction. i dare not give a specific date. >> before you leave government? >> i hope so. that is what i would wish. >> do you expect the next congress to ratify uft with
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china? >> we hope that happens because it would be highly beneficial for ecuador. >> your government is trying to issue several new decrees with force of law. what will be your priority to get it passed by the constitutional court? the second project reduces tax for the middle class. there are two other projects currently in the process as well. >> was decrees are related to capital markets?
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class we have a capital markets built ready to analyze capital markets. that in and of itself is a big project we are working on. we are going to send it in the short term and we have other economic projects ready like the sale of land for shrimp farming. >> are exclusive conversation with the president of ecuador and heidi, the president is leaving office this year after dissolving congress. he made sure to emphasize his achievements when it came to fighting climate change including the issuance of blue bonds for pet -- for protection efforts. he is now preparing measures against el niño that will impact his country severely later in the year. >> that preparation will -- we will see that from other
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countries and economies as well. yet to be declared by the bureau of meteorology most expected by groups -- some of the other source, let's catch up on those other stores. janet yellen has met with vietnam's prime minister in hanoi. reducing u.s. plans on china. any ships headed to russian ports may be military targets in to protect bridgett is here. she has no clue that i'm here. she has no clue who's in the helmet. are you ready? -i'm ready! alright.
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>> this is daybreak asia. looking across the equity markets. we are seeing pretty much a down day with some repricing reconsideration of the central banks. when it comes to expectations for our next type from the rba. stocks are under pressure. that faster than expected clip of inflation will move the needle still for the boj coming into next week's decision. there is speculation as to whether we will see a tweak to
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the y cc. all of this as we have some data out of their. -- out of that place. not much of a recovery being seen there as well as producer prices falling .2% as well. that deflation there is very much away. we are also watching the best performer of the lot coming off those session lows about .1%. some of the energy names are ones to watch as we see the fluctuations in oil market pricing at the moment. >> let's turn to tsmc because we need to postpone the start of this. they are sending a warning to investors that the global
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electronics slump may persist for sometime. always great to see you. before we went into this earning announcement, you actually had a positive rating on tsmc enterprise target of 135 u.s. dollars. does the latest change your calculations or your view on the stock at all? >> thank you for having me on the program. no, it does not change our view. we actually anticipated a slow recovery but perhaps this was worse than expected. keeping in mind we are at the bottom of the cycle. the first time this year was all about a very significant inventory correction. the second half is all about customers trying to manage inventories for tsmc
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specifically, it is just a recovery outside is a lot slower. it doesn't change our view. earnings are bottoming and we expect an accelerated earning growth into next year. >> we have just gotten south korea's latest chip export numbers as well for the first 20 days of this month and it is a fall of more than 35% year on year. when can we expect the broader industry to really bottom out and what does that mean for tsmc? >> keep in mind with south korea, you have a heavily concentrated memory industry plus most of those are in the trade that. what you see in the export data is a reflection of continued weakness in memory, i think the industry is going to be weak
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when supply and demand will be coming. there could be some improvement in memory prices. especially with the chips that go -- the united states is expected to remain week. they suggested it would take several quarters for the excess inventory to be worked down. i think the ai and everything associated with ai may have made some investors complacent. never forget about that looming inventory crash. >> many delayed the setback to the marquee project in arizona. what does this tell us about the broad challenges in china -- in trying to make this shift into the u.s.? >> there are two things that are not that clear in the headline.
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the chips still have not been worked out after a year or two of the chips act passing, the benefit for the actual subsidies have not really been worked out and i think it will take another six to 12 months for the actual subsidies to be given to companies like tsmc. there is -- tsmc talks about the readiness. but there is a change in platform and some of the upgraded platform will not be available until next year. i think, to me, the readiness delay is more complicated. it has to do with subsidies. the subsidies are going to narrow. also, some technical aspect with
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the specific equipment type. >> how do you account for the price and the geopolitical complications? >> we have been dealing with geopolitics since 2016 with the huawei band. highs will can was the chip subsidy, the second largest customer. i have been dealing with that since then. companies around the globe need tsmc and if there are geopolitics, i think coming is like apple, amazon, google, microsoft that need this, then we will have a bigger problem and there will be a broader implication for the tech industry then tsmc specifically.
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i think the geopolitics is more like noise that we have been dealing with since 2016 and it may not go away with that does not mean tsmc is at a disadvantage. >> what about ai? we are some commentary as to how much it can make up microeconomic headwinds and the answer from tsmc is not for all of it. we get to the point where the ai frenzy or the monetization of that is big enough to be the dominant driving force of profitability? >> no. one key takeaway is that ai still counts for single-digit amounts of revenue. apple is still more than 20%. >> we are in the early phase of ai adoption, actually moving from ai training -- there is a lot of hype.
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every headline has ai. but the actual impact of the semiconductor industry is going to take some time. we are going through that. one factor remains unchanged. if you abolish ai, tsmc is the only one that can make the advanced packaging that will enable nvidia to offer something that would drive two times higher prices. there is no alternative. it is going to take time for ai to scale and take more than 10% of revenues. twice great to have you with us. china's top auto are falling behind their sales targets,
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suggesting the prices will hit the world's biggest car market. for more, let's bring in linda who drives us in hong kong. on the sales targets is highly about consumer weakness? broader economic -- broader macroeconomic weakness in the economy? >> absolutely. consumer sentiment has really been hit by the slowing economy. we have seen some pretty wearying economic data from china recently and so consumers are really putting off making big purchases like cars. another reason for a lot of these carmakers not hitting 50% of their sales target now that we are halfway into the year is that some of them have been really aggressive in raising their goals from last year to this year. for example, china's largest clean car brand, they have actually doubled their target. more than doubled their target
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to this year. so it is going to be an uphill battle for them to really hit that. >> when you have broader skepticism about the economic recovery in china, what can they actually do to get those sales going again? >> they don't have a lot of tactics in their playbook. one thing they will probably keep doing is to continue to cut prices. we have seen brands like cadillac recently reduce their ev by ¥60,000. there is definitely a trend of price cuts that will keep going. and automakers are also going to keep bringing up new models to try to excite the consumers and get them to really consider buying a new car. >> we have more to come on daybreak asia. this is bloomberg.
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♪ 76% of 23andme health customers surveyed reported taking healthier actions. because they know health isn't just a future state. health happens now. start your dna-powered health journey today with personalized insights from 23andme.
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>> blackstone has become the first private equity firm to manage $1 trillion. it is in the congressman that weighed on the second quarter results. the president and coo jonathan gray told us about how the feds monetary tightening is weighing on the deals market.
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>> this year, you had a lot of concern about where inflation was going. a lot of concern about how far the fed will go. we have the banking crisis in march and naturally you see a slowdown in deal activity. i think the good news is the tone has improved as we have worked through this quarter. the deal market feels like is unfreezing a bit. if you look at an hour credit area, our intellect -- direct lending, our pipeline is up more than doubled in where it was 90 days ago. so we are seeing more activity there, more activity in our tactical opportunities area where we help companies and investors by providing flexible capital. our secondary business is seeing more activity so i think as people feel better about the overall picture, a little more certainty, i think we will see deal volume pick up as we move forward. cries other financing markers
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becoming open enough for you to do something big? at what time will we see blackstone doing multibillion dollar deals, perhaps deals that allow partners at that scale? >> we have done a few large deals this year. we announced at the end of last year ever since prima technology business for $14 billion, we privatized online event management business, multibillion dollar transaction. we are looking at a number of things of scale. obviously, the financing markets make it a little bit tricky. you have to be creative in trying to pull transactions together. and that dry powder allows us to move when opportunities arise. i think we will see more of those opportunities over the next year. it is hard to put our finger on exactly when it will happen but
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i just feel across our platform there will be some interesting things and scale is a real advantage for us. >> let's talk about the macro environment. earlier you talked about uncertainty being the killer of dealmaking. is some of that uncertainty clearing? >> the fed is really winning this war. they are not ready to clear victory. what we see in those portfolio companies are input costs really coming down now to less than 2%. we see wages which were running higher than 7% mid last year growing at less than 5%, forward indicators in hiring and vacancies are also positive. the labor market is starting -- starting to soften. i think that will be helpful as the fed looks forward. what do i think happens? i think they will raise rates. then they will hold them here for a longer time to try to slow
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the economy and we expect they will be successful in doing that. >> that was jonathan speaking to bloomberg sonali basak. also, we are seeing high net worth for interest in japan. this follows a strong start with securities. skidmore >> what are the risks of investing in this fund? what do they have to say? >> good morning. with this fund, in annualized the returns of the vehicle which it feeds into. this is a fund investing in speculative loans. how do companies do with high interest rates, slowing economy?
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will default unravel some of these loans? blackstone says they are well-positioned and have built up a position for weakness down the road if it comes. and all of these loans are essentially secured as well. they think they can handle anything that goes. what's the fun seems to have gotten off to a pretty good start. given the broader environment, why is that so challenging? >> here japan unlike much of the rest of the world, rates are still at minus levels from the bank of japan, this fund is offering about 8% annualized, that is the track record of the u.s. fund it is based off of. it is mouthwatering when you consider the company's here can still sell data for 0.3% and they are getting nothing on savings. there are a lot of japanese
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investors with a lot of financial assets. many to put those to work. that is the basis of the quickstart for this one. questing are direct lending to firms and then funds based on that. did they say anything about doing more of that in asia and even japan? questing did mention building out teams here in singapore and also in australia were lending rates are higher than here or japan. they also mentioned they are more focused on selling investments in japan but they also mentioned they could come to japan in terms of lending as well. they have been selling investments to institutions for why some time. they will see an opportunity.
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>> be sure to tune into bloomberg radio. you can hear more from the days big newsmakers. we are broadcasting live from our studio in hong kong. this is bloomberg. ♪ that always puts you first. (we did it) start today at godaddy.com
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>> president xi jinping's attack on china's afterschool tutoring industry was meant to ease the burden on households but for many middle class families, it has had the opposite effect. let's get more details from our shanghai bureau. what is going on? questing morning. two years ago, president xi jinping announced a crack down on the private tutoring sector. the main objectives are to reduce the homework burden of students and also the tuition bills of parents. the other one is to curb what he regarded as the expansion of private capital in the education sector. delays has certainly been achieved. if you look at the share price of big education companies like new oriental and also towel.
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also, at the same time, many small tutoring, these have been driven into bankruptcy. we are hearing is based on the -- the private tutoring bill of chinese households. many private companies have moved underground. parents increasingly returned to those kinds of organizations for help. especially after the start of the location which is the first law school break after lifting china's covid zero policy. the bills have been piling up. the tutoring bill has actually gone up 50%. the real cost of the problem is
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the college entry system. they have to take part in the want of year -- once a year test and their admission to top schools based on the result from such tests. that is why the demand for this kind of tutoring services remains strong despite the crackdown. >> there will be a pretty significant longer-term implication be an economic or social. >> definitely. >> the long-term trajectory is to boost birth rate and also resolve the widening wealth gap and quality issue. you know the cost of raising family, children and skyhigh housing -- skyhigh housing prices are a major factor behind
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the planning birthrate. people are not getting married. they are not willing to have children because of the crushing cost. also, because of the surge in private tutoring, that means a lot less well-off families will be off limits to these kinds of services putting kids from those families. the crackdown based on the metrics we are talking about are not the desire they want for sure. quick that was the latest on the tutoring crackdown and the unintended consequences that have played out. let's get you a quick look at how broader markets are trading across asia. it is a down day as we see the choppiness of the session we saw in wall street overnight. some of the resilience of the labor markets. not just in the u.s. but australia as well but this is the sticky inflation numbers are
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causing a bit of repricing when it comes to central bank expectations. certainly for the rba. more than 50% expectation being pressed into markets as they push through another hike. when it comes to markets in japan, we are watching next week's boj decision. whether or not that faster than us but the clip of inflation that we got in the last hour is really going to move the needle for the tweaking of why cc, we will expect the governor to continue pouring cold water over these market expectations. we are seeing kiwi stocks turning flat. also, some volatility when it comes to energy markets given the moves by the senate as well as some geopolitical indications there as well.
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hi, i'm jason and i've lost 202 pounds on golo. so the first time i ever seen a golo advertisement, i said, "yeah, whatever. there's no way this works like this." and threw it to the side. a couple weeks later, i seen it again after getting not so pleasant news from my physician. i was 424 pounds, and my doctor was recommending weight loss surgery. to avoid the surgery, i had to make a change. so i decided to go with golo and it's changed my life. when i first started golo and taking release, my cravings, they went away. and i was so surprised.
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you feel that your body is working and functioning the way it should be and you feel energized. golo has improved my life in so many ways. i'm able to stand and actually make dinner. i'm able to clean my house. i'm able to do just simple tasks that a lot of people call simple, but when you're extremely heavy they're not so simple. golo is real and when you take release and follow the plan, it works.
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