>> good morning, welcome to daybreak australia. we are counting down to a shop's major market opens.

>> u.s. stops gain as traders brace for central bank calls. most economists seeing the chance for a recession of below 50%. beijing is signaling more support for consumption and property. >> apple is asking suppliers to keep iphone production steady. it could raise prices on its high-end models. u.s. futures coming online pretty muted. we had disappointing economic data from the u.s. and euro area leading to speculation that perhaps central banks might end tightening soon. we also had euro area private sector contracting more than expected and we also were watching earnings results.

we are talking about 500 companies reporting, 170 on the s&p 500. the dow jones gained ground for 11 consecutive sessions. we also have treasury yields giving ground across the board ahead of the fed meeting. we had the two year note auction today since 2007 and leading to speculation we might see the fed hiking rates this week. what happens next is a big question. take a look at oil prices continued to extend gains after we saw those games in the new york session on tighter supplies. haidi: let's take a look at how asian markets are shaping up. oil will be key here on is still yet, particularly when it comes to oil heavyweights.

we are also watching the aussie dollar. a little bit more strength out of the gate. the dollar really held steady. we saw strengthening in the yen for the first time in five days. we are also watching the yen from the position and point of view. if you look at the one week risk reversals it tells us traders are hedge and for yen gains. kiwi stocks down .3% of 1%. -- .3 of 1%. shery: alexandra, let me start

with you. investors had a lot to digest today. >> today, stocks started on a positive note. it is a busy week for investors as they wait for the biggest week of the corporate earnings service. big names from companies like alphabet, microsoft. other corporate bellwethers like visa, chipotle, exxon mobil also reporting results and given a sense of how corporate america is holding up amid higher interest rates and stubborn inflation. investors will be looking for the outlook for the man in the second half of the year, how margins are doing and artificial intelligence. the last quarter in wall street will say show me what you have when it comes to artificial intelligence rather than just

getting excited over mentions of ai. on the economic side, we have the key fed decision this week. expecting a 25 basis point hike. will it be the last one and can the fed engineered the soft landing that everyone has been hoping for? haidi: speaking of exuberance, the bounce we saw in chinese stocks, was this a dead cat bounce? >> interesting question. going into meetings, expectations are low in terms of how the chinese government will do in terms of stimulating the economy. what they did not say matters more than what they did say. they said house and is for living, not for speculation.

the government is quite worried -- worried about the housing market. it remains to see what they will do. haidi: what are we hearing from some of the most prominent banks , jp morgan and morgan stanley. >> it is incredibly challenge to predict where the stock market will go. as many people scale back the recession calls, a lot of people say -- who said stocks would be going nowhere, have been caught flat footed. two of the big bear on wall street are the ones who have been scrutinized for missing out on the rally.

marco came out today and send none of our data has changed. we still expect another selloff and renewed pressure on u.s. stocks. as consumer savings dwindle, as geopolitical tensions pressure stocks. you have mike wilson who is maintaining his bearish calls, saying he is worried about corporate profits, however he did admit for the first time that they were wrong. clients are asking them why they have not enjoyed the games of the stock market this year. there is a question of whether or not this really has staying power. shery: there is a reason we have been worried about a potential recession in the united states, especially when you look at the signals from the yield curve. economists said this could be reflected in a scenario.

what does that mean? >> people expect a lot of rate cuts. people are expecting [indiscernible] this kind could be different. investors argue that because inflation was so high there is a lot of room for inflation to come down. you could get the rate cuts without having the economic slow down. but the jury is still out to see what happens. historically, when the yield curve is slowing down, in some cases it is good for risk assets. when people should be scared is when the yield curve is steep.

haidi: still ahead, apple is said to be keeping production steady this year despite a decline in the market. clearbridge investments says a recession is coming. we take a look at their investment playbook. that is coming up next. this is bloomberg. ♪

haidi: black rocks local fixed-income cios says risk premiums are currently not wide enough to entice investors. rick rieder told us why investors should be considering other areas of credit. >> part of the argument against high days the spreads have not been interesting. there are a bunch of parts of the fixed income that you are getting paid for. european high-yield you swap it back to dollars and get paid well into the 9's.

that strikes me as fair. the securitization market is very interesting. not taking a lot of credit risk. the nonagency mortgage market is interesting today for the same reason. the residential mortgage market is in good shape. if you said what you think of high-yield spreads, it is a fair argument. most of the yield is coming from the risk-free rate. that is a part of the idea that you can hide in parts of the front end of the yield curve and get a lot of carry. you can create a seven with an interest rate sensitivity. that is about a two. that is pretty appealing in an environment where you want to

take a lot of rate risk out the curve. >> i am looking at the etf right now and 22% of the fund is in non-us credit. when you think about the global fixed income market, where is most of the opportunity? will you find that in u.s. bonds? how much are you looking overseas? >> the united states, it is pretty hard not to have the united states as part of your portfolio in fixed-income. the average is -50, -60 so it is pretty hard not to have it as a part of your portfolio in the u.s.. european high-yield to swap back to dollars you can buy a lot of reasonable companies at an awful lot of yield. we talked about mexico.

the rates market in brazil, colombia, you are getting paid local rates. as long as you are willing to take risk, it is pretty attractive. they have been a really big help. haidi: blacklock -- blackrock global cio fixed income rick rieder. we're joined now by jeffrey schulze from clearbridge investments. if you still think when it comes to the transmission lab on fed policy that perhaps the worst is still to come? >> i do. i know there is a lot of talk of soft landing, but we are expecting a slow down in the back half of the gear. a preview of that is coming from the lead-in economic indicator.

you have seen 15 consecutive declines of the lei, which has only been eclipsed twice. economic activity is resilient now but may not be going forward. when you look ahead of a recession three quarters prior, to quarters prior and one quarter prior, yes we have had resilient economic activity, but that does not tell us what is in store for the second half of the year. haidi: complicated by the fact that we do not have the cyclical growth story of china. does that make you reassess? >> i think we have some positive today. there is a clear change of initiative.

a progrowth shift to supporting property and local government debt as well. they mentioned the word countercyclical today in the pot to borough meeting. -- public to borough meeting. i think investors were not expecting this change in tune -- tone. i think this is bullish and we will start to see more stimulus. it will have knocked out effects to other areas of global growth. haidi: the globin -- golden dragon china index today, pretty broad based. how do you get exposure? >> i think you can get exposure in a couple of different ways through chinese equities themselves, exposure to japan or europe that has overexposure to chinese growth. the commodity complex and

materials are areas of opportunity especially if stimulus goes into the property sector. this is one of the key reasons you have seen oil and materials recently. haidi: it is a very earnings heavy week. over 500 companies reporting. what are you hoping to see in the u.s. and what will you be watching out for given the bar was set pretty low? >> the bar was set extremely low . earnings expectations for this quarter are down 7%. low bars are meant to be beat and that is exactly what you were seeing. one potential fly in the ointment, companies have historically outperform the s&p 500 the day after, and so far this earnings season, they are

underperforming the s&p 500 outright. this suggests a lot of the good news may be in the prices already. this might be something news type of quarter. we are going to get a good taste of what the tone will be going forward. haidi: the rate hike from the fed seems to be baked into the markets right now. we have seen u.s. home sales up again. housing stabilizing already. how difficult will the job of the fed be? >> i think this will be a pretty boring fed meeting all things considered. the fed themselves are expecting to more rate hikes before reaching terminal. i think the fed will take the olive branch investors are extending, even with the soft cpi print we saw today. we saw signs of life from manufacturing a couple of months

ago. the labor market is still extremely tight. the average job creation 250,000 per month. you are seeing around 150,000 jobs created now. this is still a really tight labor market and i think the fed will take the opportunity to hike and potentially do one more. shery: how do you explain the gap between the narrative that we could still potentially set up for a soft landing? >> obviously, one of these two cohorts are wrong. equity investors are betting very optimistic expectations into markets at the moment. s&p 500 back up to 20. earnings expected to reflect higher on the back half of the year. given the decline in economic background and disinflation, gdp

growth is expected to be cut in half, by the end of the year. maybe some lower revenues and maybe a merchant compression and lower earnings expectation. i think the bond markets will be proved right this time, but time will tell. haidi: it is good to have you with us. jeffrey schulze from clearbridge investments. you can get a roundup of all of these stories that you need to know to get your day going from daybreak. this is bloomberg. ♪ 76% of 23andme health customers surveyed reported taking healthier actions. because they know health isn't just a future state.

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we will be watching apples asia suppliers after they are asking

them to produce more models this year. our chief technology and corresponding joins us. how does this compared to last year? >> it is actually the same, flat 85 new units this fall. september through the end of 2023. 85 million this year, same as last year and the year before. on the surface, flat in this tough economy in the smart phone slow down sounds pretty good. but here is the other side of the perspective. this is a major iphone operator. the iphone 15 pro, significant changes to the design, camera, processor, battery life. compared to last year, there were minor updates. all things considered, pretty good. haidi: the flat numbers, is it a

supply issue? >> i think it is a demand related situation. apple is forecasting it will not need more than 85 million units for this fall given the idea people will hold on to their money more so given the economy and the slow down you have seen. i think all things equal, this new iphone 15 would be a pretty strong slow learner. if it wasn't -- slow seller if it wasn't for the economy. one other thing to consider is the 85 million compares to the last big iphone redesign, the iphone 12 with 5g in 2020. that was 75 million units. so there is still a 10 million unit increase from the last time we got a change. haidi: tell us more about the new iphones this year and what

it means for the thousands of suppliers around the world. >> they have change the charging port yet again. for the first time since 2012 when the iphone five rolled out with the lightning connector, now they are finishing a transition and the iphone was the main major hold up of products to not have the connector. it is slightly bigger, but still very small. it is faster, it is reversible. it is fully compatible with android phones and u.s. pc devices. you will have an easier chart -- time sharing cables. the iphone 15 promax will get a new camera known as a periscope camera, which allows for more resume. the other change is they will

change from a stainless steel case to one made of titanium to make it more premium and durable as well. haidi: our chief technology correspondent there with the latest on apple. let's get you a quick check on some of the fx peers. yen very much in focus going into the meeting. a week risk reversal telling us we are seeing some bets being hedged for gains. it continues to build when it comes to the possibility of an elevation of the inflation forecast. the key we is holding pretty -- the kiwi is holding pretty steady. the aussie dollar is flat.

the euro hitting a two-week low. also watching dollar china. beijing holding off on any major stimulus announcement. promising countercyclical in the meeting. would potentially at least in the medium-term be a disappointment despite the uptick we saw bridgett is here. she has no clue that i'm here. she has no clue who's in the helmet. are you ready? -i'm ready! alright. xfinity rewards creates experiences big and small,

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>> kathleen hays has the latest

and were talking about the national association of business economic surveys. what are they saying? some people are getting so optimistic but definitely if you look at the latest july survey, 71% of economists -- economists where split even. one in four put the recession chance at 25% or less. what are they looking at? the fact that there is a strong labor market and also inflation is coming down, that is the kind of things that makes businesses do better, feel better. these are chief economist at u.s. companies and also they are seeing improved profit margins. all of this is making them feel

like the economy may not be roaring but we are definitely looking at an economy that has a better footing now. in fact, it looks like the survey is suggesting that economists do not see recession as inevitable as they once were. will the fed be willing to let inflation stall? that's the kind of thing that will determine how many rate hikes there are. and that's the kind of thing that could raise the recession. >> a hike is unprecedented. jeffrey said this will be a pouring -- boring meeting. coming back from the june pause, there is more work to do. that is what we have heard.

but we do see markets are betting that this is the fed's last one. investors are not looking for the cuts but they are not looking for rate hikes. inflation is coming down, that is going to be the kind of thing to convince the fed to go meeting by meeting but not make a move. look at the june dots, the consensus is to more rate hikes and he has -- will the fed's minds be changed by that? inflation will be a big determinant of how much their minds do or don't change. you can see the blue line, that is the pce deflator. it is down to three point 85% year-over-year, but the core takes out food energy. it is over four and a half percent, 4.6. fed funds is about -- above 5.2.

five and a wednesday, signaling a pause at the next meeting that when they were talking about what they might do in june, the baseline is interesting because they see rate cuts starting in the second quarter of next year. there is risk, what if el niño is hot? they look for the fed to signal that but the sense that they will open the door may be wider too, we have to see what happens at the meeting. that will come from jay powell's address. shery: we will get more about how extreme weather is affecting inflation. kathleen hayes is with us and

citigroup says the slump in investment banking revenue is beginning to ease. we were told about the outlook for the banks trading operations. >> trading businesses are still good. if you compare industry revenues to what they were in 2020 or 2019, the numbers are higher. it is not bad. they look worse when you compare them to the past two years. they are still healthy. what drove the health is still around. we still have uncertainty about the economic situation. there is a lot of trading and readjustment of portfolios that has to happen. i don't think we have reasons to be negative about trade revenues in the coming quarters but the truth is, i don't know. >> some businesses say commodities have faced a

falloff. how much of a structural headwind is that to the industry? we have a new economic regime. >> this is a positive part of the story because we have to remember we have had many years with zero rates. rates almost dead, little uncertainty about rates. we come back with uncertainty about the rates, we didn't have a rate to play with before. rates will continue to be an active part of the trading markets. >> what are the but -- what about other parts of the banking sector? there have been headcount reductions at wall street firms. at what point does the needle turn? could things get worse before they get better? >> i don't think things could be worse. it is limited by the need. the need is accumulating through

months of inactivity. at some point, the market situation is not great but we will start generating revenue. it has been one of the longest slumps in revenues we have experienced, longer than the one that followed the financial crisis. it has to turn because the reason for those activities to happen has not gone away. we can't say exactly when but it is more likely to come back then go the other direction. >> do workforce reductions come are they definitively over or can there be more pressure? given the competition across the industry, how do you think about headcount in the investment bank? >> there could be more pressure but if you look at reductions in the industry, they are small compared to the slump in revenues. people have been holding back and are trying to keep them pacitti -- capacity. it will be worse if the turn doesn't happen but it is more

likely to happen then not. haidi: that was paco ybarra. let's check the political headlines. israel's parliament pased netanyahu's judicial overhaul, curbing oversight powers. the government says the judiciary is too powerful and is controlled by the political left. opposition lawmakers boycotted the vote. it sparked protests. a basket of major currencies tracked by bomberg. one month since china's foreign minister was seen in public. his absence disrupted a spring of -- string of diplomatic exchanges with trading partners. the foreign ministry said she did not have any information

about the diplomat. more to come. this is bloomberg. ♪ s looking at their phones for financial insights from merrill. is he hailing a ride to the concert hall? no. he's making sure his portfolio and retirement plans work in harmony. they want to adopt a child and build a new home. so they're talking numbers with their merrill adviser. she's not researching her next role. she's learning how to handle market ups and downs without the drama. personalized advice so impressive your money never stops working for you with merrill. a bank of america company.

i was told my small business wouldn't qualify for an erc tax refund. you should get a second opinion from innovation refunds at no upfront cost. sometimes you need a second opinion. [coughs] good to go. yeah, i think i'll get a second opinion. all these walls gotta go! ah ah ah! i'd love a second opinion. no. i'm going to get a second opinion. with innovation refunds, there's no upfront cost to find out. so why not check like i did for my small business? take the first step to see if your small business qualifies for the erc. shery: emerging markets bond bowls hope the end of rate hikes can boost the asset class. investors don't seem to price in major vulnerabilities from the el niño weather pattern.

let's bring in our emerging markets reporter. how is the universe of em being affected? >> because of the weather pattern forming in the pacific, it is drier and hotter in developing nations and that affects crop production. that feeds into higher food prices and that feeds into higher inflation in theory. el niño is happening at a key time because most emerging-market central banks are getting ready to start easing long-term policy, especially latin america where they started hiking years ago. the big question for investors is, if food prices are affected enough and that feeds into inflation enough, will policymakers continue with the forward guidance that they are ready to cut rates? will they hold them higher for longer? haidi: where are we seeing the highest exposure and bigots --

biggest risk? >> asia is a reason that is -- a region that is most exposed. in the inflation basket, take india for example, food is 46% of that. places like thailand, it is 36% and 33% in indonesia. they are the most exposed because of the weather. shery: you mentioned higher rates for longer in ems. has markets priced that in? >> not really. we spoke to investors and we have a report from goldman sachs that investors are looking elsewhere. they are looking at the yield, the high kerry they get from holding emerging-market local bonds. every time i come on i tell you that it has been a big trade for emerging-market investors to be involved in local currency bonds. we have a gauge of global bonds

returning to percent so far this year. emerging markets doubled that. it is >> it's a risk investors are running in the developing world. shery: bloomberg emerging-market reporter with the threat from potential extreme weather that is trying to on ees economies. ecuador is speaking -- seeking emergency funds. i spoke with the president, asking about the issuing of blue bonds for the galapagos islands. >> the risk was high and for the conservation swap, we were able to see the opportunity because of $600 million. we found 1.6 billion in debt, almost 10%.

the public made a profit of $1 billion. shery: will you issue more bonds similar to those for the protection of the galapagos islands? >> i would say yes. i believe ecuador is one of the 17 most -- countries in the world. and as our minister says, biodiversity is the currency of ecuador. shery: structuring that can be very complicated. >> it took us two years and now we have it. we are writing a manual so that the next one does not take two years but only six months. shery: can you do this during your presidency? >> we do not have it planned, but i want to tell you something important. the debt for conservation swap based on the galapagos marine

reserve is the first inhumane any. never before has there been a debt swap of 1.6 billion dollars, this is historic. shery: fighting climate change has been very important for you. your government is preparing measures to mitigate el niño. how are you finding resources for this? >> we are in a constant effort, the issue of obtaining financial resources for the management of public policy. it's an ongoing process. i do not have specific information to share, but what i can say is we are having constant conversations with our institutions. ecuador is not planning to go to the market. shery: no more debt? >> no, no external debt at a given moment will be necessary to mitigate the risks of the el niño phenomenon.

until they repaired the infrastructure affected by the phenomenon, i have a very important meeting with the president of the world bank on july 26. ecuador's debt to the world bank is only 7% of assets and with the idb it reaches over 25%. the world bank is the largest multilateral institution from which we seek support to manage the risks we needed to mitigate due to the el niño phenomenon. shery: our exclusive conversation with the president of ecuador, guillermo. and i started that conversation by asking him how he feels about a potential leftist government coming in because remember ecuador's bonds are one of the worst performing in the world right now because of some political issues that the country is seeing. now the president made sure to really emphasize the fact that ecuador was able to take advantage of plunging bond prices. to actually push out these blue bonds related to the galapagos

islands. but if course, we are seeing this macroeconomic change in the developing world and we have chi le's central bank deciding on rates that we are watching. potentially their first rate cut in three years. haidi: extraordinarily difficult to be setting policy in a time where as our previous reporter spoke about, the climate risk, the price pressures from inflation risk when it comes to el niño, already grouping many economies in the world. in australia, we are bracing for that with huge agricultural and climate exposure on this side of the world as well. a story will be talking about for months and years to come. and we are also watching other climate headlines for you right now. moody saying heat waves may reduce europe's attractiveness and expects climate to have rising economic and fiscal costs.

a severe heat wave has impacted southern europe with thousands of hectors consumed by wildfires. 162 wildfires have been reported across greece over the last one he four hours amid high wind and extreme heat. 2500 tourists and residents were evacuated from the northern part of the island, that adds to 19,000 people who had to flee the island to escape the blazes. you can find out more on bloomberg radio. to get more from the days big newsmakers and in-depth analysis from our daybreak team there. broadcasting live from our studio in hong kong. listen on the app, radio plus or bloombergradio.com. much more ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ haidi: wall street is eyeing australia's multi trillion dollar pensions industry, which is reaping a billion dollars in inflows every week. let's bring in our pension funds correspondent. what's driving the money flowing into the funds? amy: the system here known locally as you mentioned as superannuation is more than 30 years old and it is based on compulsory employer contributions. that has been steadily rising,

so at the start of this month, it ticked up to 11% of workers salaries, that's going to go up further to 12%. there are tailwinds in australia. wage growth and high employment levels. so that all means that the inflows into the industry here are growing at a net financial rate as you mentioned. $1 trillion a week and the pension funds here need to find places to spend the money. shery: yes, i bet that is probably shaping the industry. what is that looking like? amy: absolutely. look, we have had cios tele-stores are opening that were not previously -- telling us that doors are opening that were not previously opening. the biggest asset managers flying to the heart of the superannuation system, which is melbourne, where i am. seeking to do deals with some of the biggest players. we have had private duels -- deals happening the last few months. it means that there is coinvest

and that might not have been thought about years ago, but now these funds are getting so big that they are needing to find places to put their money, to grow money. it is incumbent on them, they must make money for their members. the people that are putting their compulsory savings into these pension pots. the two biggest funds here are forecast to reach $1 trillion in the next decade and the industry itself is going to reach the heights of about 10 trillion locally by 2040. so there really is a lot of money and what it tells us is those relationships are deepening, but also it is extremely competitive as they seek further tieups with some of the biggest players here. haidi: it is such a fascinating scale of growth when you look at the gap between the size of the cash pile into the fact that i guess reality is domestic markets are not big enough. so how are they going to deploy it? were they interested in? amy: that is absolutely it in

one of the cios told us it is a headache trying to find places to put the money and it is a really different way of thinking. you do not have to go out and raise capital. it is coming in and you have to find places to spend it. funds like australian super, which has 300 billion australian dollars and management is opening new offices overseas, we are super. a top-five fund, 60 billion under management, they are opening a management office in europe. they are be thing of internal investment teams, so we know a lot of them are hiring more people in those overseas offices and also here, domestically as well. as they seek to cut costs with some of the external managers that they have been using and really increase the size of their internal teams. but also position themselves to have that capacity to know how to find the deals going forward. as those funds just continue to grow in size, it also means of course that with the external

managers, they are now telling us that they are having to offer other services as well, better analytics, better research. to position themselves to make sure that they are part of this growth that is continuing here in australia. shery: superannuation and pension funds correspondent amy there. now to some of the top corporate stories we're watching. citadel securities first net trading revenues slid 35% from last year. the firm generated 2.73 alien dollars in revenue. in the first six month of the year. after a record 4.2 billion in the first half of 2022. citadel saw volatility fueled search last year as rate hikes and recession fears generated trading windfalls. ubs will pay about $387 million in fines related to misconduct by credit suisse in its dealings with rk vos. ubs has agreed to pay 38 $7

million for unsafe management practices. credit suisse in a consent order with the fed. u.k. regulators have also find ubs a record penalty of $112 million. elon musk has pushed through with a change of twitter logo, replacing the blue bird with a stylized x. he invited his followers to suggest the next logo and proceeded to choose one of the does signs, replacing the bird within 24 hours. elon musk says he intends to adopt it as an interim design and the logo will be refined later. the move is part of the billionaires vision of transforming the 17-year-old service into and everything app. haidi: take a look at how fx is trading across the board, of course a little bit of sideways

price action, given that we have momentous central bank decisions from the fed to the ecb and rounding out the week with w. this is what we are seeing when it comes to the broader dollar index and of course we had a study session for the dollar. a move when it comes to the euro, falling to a two-week low after the paying line numbers came out. aussie dollar holding steady at 67.38. futures in sydney are's extensive a percent higher. dollar-yen seeing more of a move as speculation continues to build about inflation forecasts. ♪ 76% of 23andme health customers surveyed reported taking healthier actions. because they know health isn't just a future state. health happens now. start your dna-powered health journey today

with personalized insights from 23andme.

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