tv Bloomberg Daybreak Asia Bloomberg July 26, 2023 7:00pm-9:00pm EDT
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>> welcome to "bloomberg daybreak: asia". >> the top stories, the fed leaves the door open for hikes after raising rates to 22-year high in jerome powell saying further calls will be data dependent. jerome powell: we will be comfortable cutting rates when we are comfortable cutting rates. i don't think that is the issue. >> met us sales and forecast beat samsung -- meta sales and forecast beat. ♪ >> it is just the beginning of where we are and we are very excited for the potential. >> we have breaking news when it comes to the hong kong monetary authority raising its base rate
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to 5.75% following the federal reserve resuming rate hikes hikes by 25 basis points to take that fed rate to a 22-year high and leaving the door open to a future pause or rate hikes depending on inflation data coming through in the next couple of months. the base rate moves in line every time with the fed benchmark to protect the local dollar's peg to the greenback. with every day or morning after the fed, we are looking to hsbc, standard chartered because they tend to announce with changes to their base lending rates as well. shery: we are seeing the implications with u.s. futures looking like this early in the asian session after we saw a mixed picture in the regular session with the dow index higher and slightly higher after the fomc statement that then fed
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chair powell said we would not be achieving that 2% target until 2025, perceived as hawkish but everything chairman jerome powell said, there was something for everyone, bears, bulls, yields losing ground in today's session, pestered -- pressured by the fact that jerome powell did not commit to rate hikes at every other meeting. we weren't looking at oil prices pressured in the new york session and higher in the asian session with u.s. stockpiles falling less than expected. when it comes to the stock market space we were reacting to corporate earnings as well so that muddied the picture a little bit as well, talking about the information tech sector leading the cleanse today but communication services higher given the better-than-expected earnings out of alphabet. they can look at what meta is doing in the after hours session with that boost lot better than
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expected, better than expected outlook and of course you really have to put this company into context because mark zuckerberg's year of efficiency seems to be working already. this stock has already more than doubled this year. haidi: that valuation outlook when it comes to meta potentially positioning as a bit of a bargain was broader u.s. tech looks price to perfection. at the set up in asia with sydney futures flap amidst a heavy earnings season we are trolling through. we had numbers from mccoury disappointing with the first quarter substantially down and that guidance in the operating group contribution was substantially down year on year as well talking about its market's business relative to strong results from the same quarter last year. the revenue was also lower in that statement and watching rio tinto disappointing when it comes to the china slowed down
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setting the tone if you will with the other big minoers and we continue to look towards the open in china as some of that froth and exuberance may have come out that the stimulus rally. let's get more on the fed with dennis lockhart with our global economics policy editor kathleen. dennis, good to have you with those. there was something for everyone. you could see the fed chair in a masterful way treading that fine line between's hawkish and -- between hawkish and dovish and leaving the door open to a potential pause. what is your take away? dennis: i thought he kept his options open about as open as options can be. and he did not commit to anything. he repeated the usual messages that this is a committee
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operating meeting bite meeting and there is no predetermined path for policy. the idea that they were in and every other meeting pattern, he did not really validate. he said it was data dependent. he said all the things he said before and reiterated the result of the committee to bring inflation to its target of 2%. kathleen: when we back away from this, jerome powell was also masterful at not giving any answers about the guidance. what are they going to watch? what will trigger them to hike again or pause? why did he work so hard? how is this part of the fed's strategy right now? what does it mean? dennis: to answer your first question, they will follow the growth pattern and the economy. the second-quarter numbers will
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come out in a few weeks and it looks like it will be a strong quarter so growth continues to be relatively robust. then obviously the inflation numbers -- a wide variety of inflation numbers -- to form a synthesis of what the underlying inflation is. those are the two things that he and the committee will be following very carefully, particularly over the next eight weeks once they get quite a bit of data actually, that that is what is on their mind and i think the uncertainty around the actual path of inflation is is informing their reserve about committing to any forward guidance. kathleen: in your opinion what would in terms of inflation in particular and klein them to say, oh, we can pause. core cpi? what will incline them to hot?
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labor market that is hot in wages rises and that's what they have to do? dennis: i don't think it is in the one thing because they look at a dashboard and try to form a bigger picture about what is happening with inflation, but wage pressures would be one data point that i think would be very important. core inflation measures that cut out the outliers whether food, energy, or other outliers, they are trying to get an idea of undersea currents, how those are coursing, and that is how they will whether they have to act further or they have to pause. shery: how does housing factor in given that that sector seems to be stabilizing? dennis: what sector is stabilizing? shery: housing.
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dennis: well, to some extent the numbers are going in various directions but there is a reasonable be you -- view that the overall shelter or owners equivalent rent measure of inflation in the housing sector is about to turn over, although that has been anticipated now for several months, but there are encouraging signs that we will see a softening of wage or of deflationary pressures in the housing sectors. haidi: what do you make of the fed's characterization of economic growth as moderate? dennis: you know i have to laugh a little bit because when i was a rookie at the fomc, i ask an economist what is the difference between modest and moderate. well, they adjusted the number and apparently moderate is a
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little bit stronger than perhaps modest, but i suppose you could use either word, but they are acknowledging the underlying growth of the economy continues to motor along in a pretty satisfactory -- well, not satisfactory to them -- but in a way that is no doubt adding to the inflationary pressures in the economy. kathleen: there are economists looking at the numbers and base effects year-over-year. we will get a few months of, oh, it looks like inflation is coming down but depending on what the next series of numbers can do, it can look like inflation is starting to rise again. if that happens is the fed put in a position where it has to get definite and more aggressive about rate hikes? dennis: well, the base effects argument is that many months ago
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there were numbers that were in the full year 12-month inflation numbers that are really history now, but nonetheless they inform the overall number. um, i think what they will be doing is they will be looking at shorter-term measures of inflation, month over month, quarter over quarter, six-month measures, taking all of this into try to discern what is the current run rate, what is the current degree of inflationary pressure, and they can eliminate this concern over base effects by looking at shorter-term measures. kathleen: so dennis, when all is said and done, where do you think the funds rate will get to? are you in the camp that says we may even have seen the last one, and if it is not the july hike that is last, it will be the september hike, or do you see the possibility inflation will settle down and stabilize, even
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if it is not rising,, going up, but you would say they would be in a position, or you would be if you are at the fed now to have to hike again to keep the tightening going? dennis: i think the assumption that one more increase either at the september or october, november meeting is a reasonable and plausible way of looking at the future. beyond that it is just simply going to depend on how inflation evolves and i have no better cristobal than anybody else -- crystal ball in that respect so i would have to say that as of now that you could see a scenario of at least one more hike. shery: always great catching up with you, the former fed atlanta president and kathleen hays on a very important fed day. thank you.
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report second-quarter results shortly, analysts think profit felt more than 90% on continued weak demand for electronics and chips. shery: peter elstrom joins us now. peter we got this morning earlier in the month so what should we be watching out for today? peter: well it is a big day for samsung. they just had an event in seoul, korea where they unveiled their new potable phones. the -- foldable phones to compete with the iphones andr p. they are very high-end, premium phones, so this morning just a few hours later, we get there financial results. samsung does earnings differently and put out preliminary numbers early in the month and then final numbers later on so we already know that revenue fell quite substantially more than 20% and operating profit fell more than 90%, so very very sharp drop at that
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point. we will see the final numbers to today and we will get a sense of how the chips division perform compared to the smartphone division and we will also get some commentary about what th severe downturn. it's arrival sk hynix came out earlier this week and talked about how they thought demand was strong enough particular because of ai that chip demand was going to begin to recover from here so we will see if we hear something similar from samsung this morning. shery: the sk hynix results are interesting in terms of the impact and upside of ai materialize. haidi: do we expect that same positive exposure for samsung? peter: well, samsung sits at a similar place in the chip market. they both supplied memory chips. they are two of the biggest in
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the world and the ai demand has been very strong so far. we have seen heavy investments in some of the ai startups out there. microsoft famously put $10 billion into openai so you're seeing a lot of money pouring into the sector driving demand for the components needed to train some of these ai models out there. sk hynix is signaling something and we are hearing today whether samsung is able to capitalize on that. one of the key issues is there has been a glut of memory chips in the market so far, so they need to burn off some of that until they can sell additional chips. and that inventory built up because of demand for smartphones and computers in particular has been pretty soft this year. haidi: peter elstrom there. samsung is introducing the fifth generation of its foldable smartphone seeking to counter a
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sluggish market for devices and upcoming rival products from apple. the executive vice president and head of customer expense talked with bloomberg about the development of the company's new devices. shane higby: the phone is designed for productivity. the multitasking is the taskbar. that is because we have this incredible performance and ai capability. >> samsung has this open collaboration environment where like a culture for galaxy and google as part of it in microsoft and meta and they all have some kind of agenda to have their oh generate a high tools and is there any like any samsung efforts to do it?
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patrick: there are already a lot at play. we are working on the partnership for a long time and we have a culture to foster the innovation together. sohee: chinese smartphone makers , they are all rolling out their versions of foldable phones with cheaper prices. is there any chance that samsung would like to provide more affordable prices for foldable users let's say in india or china in the near future? patrick: some analysts predict the market to grow beyond 100 million units by 2027 in the next three years. we do expect to capture a lot of that. right now i can say it is a growing category and what drives the appeal, the pool -- pull is quality and innovation. sohee: is there a chance you
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will add more features to the flip after the fifth generation? patrick: we continued to improve many experiences. we have intelligence coming in more so it is just the beginning i would say. we are at the beginning of a new era and we are excited for the potential. sohee: right. many people are interested in your xr headset and the new formfactor for foldable phones. could you give us hence about this latest that hints about the latest develop its for these devices? patrick: we are pushing the boundaries for the ecosystem so while we are changing the formfactor and smartphones we are making advances with the wearable, the watch, the tablet. we announced on the xr partnership with google",. we announced -- google and qualcomm. we announce the start of the techno system. haidi: that was the executive
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vice president and head of customers expense for samsung speaking exclusively to bloomberg in seoul, korea. shery: meta shares climbing after a stronger than forecast second-quarter sales and of rosy outlook. let's get a breakdown of the numbers from sarah frier who needs our big tech coverage. what drove revenues? sarah: it is a couple of things. the main ink that is driving meta here is the fact that they successfully copied tiktok with the reels product. the reels product is just for short form video, it is actually capturing a lot of attention on facebook, instagram driving an increase in the amount of time people spend on those apps. advertisers are starting to get comfortable with it. it is taking some time, but they are, and beyond that, we have seen a general recovery in advertiser spending. if you remember last year there was a big pullback in
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advertising budgets, and yesterday we saw google earnings and today at meta, revenues are back up to a healthy level. haidi: what about the outlook particular when it comes to the spending side? there was commentary around the ai investment component of capex investment component of capex. ? sarah: i think zuckerberg is taking some liberties and getting confident, mark zuckerberg the ceo has talked about the year of efficiency and has done those cuts and now he says the second half of the year will be about building products better in sort of maintaining that culture of trying to be very judicious about what they spend their time on and trying to improve their pace of development. so, that will involve a lot of spending on infrastructure that may or may not work out. zuckerberg said he is committed to this idea of the metaverse.
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he is very committed to these generative ai products that will be integrated into every bit of what meta does, and he does not know how popular they will be. he said it is very difficult to decide how much to spend on a high infrastructure because you want to be able to handle extreme popularity and you want to have the infrastructure to support that if you are a company like meta with 3 billion users every day for your app. so i think they are spending big but i think investors will give them permission to do that because of that recovery in the cuts that they have made this year. haidi: sarah frier, who leads our big tech coverage. we will be getting more from the meta ceo later today at half past noon in new york over 9:30 a.m. in san francisco. he sure to tune in. this is bloomberg. ♪
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shery: welcome back. bloomberg has learned j.p. morgan will buy $1.8 billion worth of mortgages to facilitate the bank of california's purchase of pacwest. sources say jp morgan has entered into agreement to buy the single-family residential loans at a discount and it is not clear if it will keep the loans or sell them on to other investors. black rock attempting to enter india's asset management industry, this time with help of a conglomerate, reliance industries financial services unit, forming geo-black rock. the two companies are targeting initial investments of $150 million each.
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lack rock exited a previous joint venture in 2018 with that dsp group. the china evergrande energy group announce the loss of $11.7 billion, warning of its ability to keep going as a going concern. it reported financial results for the first time in two years on the company says it is negotiating with banks and other parties about renewing existing borrowings and corporate bonds. haidi: we will head to south korea for earnings from samsung expected to read portray more than 90% decline in quarterly net income. this is bloomberg. so... i know you and george were struggling
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numbers from fortescue metals when it comes to the shipments of iron ore for the full year, that guidance is unchanged from its previous guidance in april, singh capex $2.8 billion to $3.2 billion, some change to costs per metric ton, $18 to $19, and we will see if there is guidance when it comes to market conditions in china. so much has been dependent on whether we get further broad scale stimulus out of chinese authorities. we have seen iron ore rising to that three-month high on optimism there are supportive measures for the property market that could have a meaningful impact. of course that is interpreted to be a pro-growth tone from the politburo, out earlier in the week as well. taking a look at bond markets across the board and we have
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been watching the u.s. markets taking the fed decision in stride in terms of the reaction across treasuries and a dip in the u.s. dollar as well. watching assets in australia, we did see a reaction to that foster cooling in the inflation number in the three-month through to june we had yesterday but certainly that viewed that potentially we have one more move from the rba or we are close to peak rates if we are not already there is being priced into australian bond markets, we are seeing that being removed ahead of that rba meeting next week. our reporter joins us now in sydney. jerome powell tread that fine line, right, did not want to get to dovish or perceived to be too hawkish. what are the implications for markets? >> he is giving himself plenty of outs. he sees the totality of the
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data, so that is, that has kept everybody, the knots in their stomachs have been undone other bit but we will not be jumping a cars every time there is a bad print. it changes and lots of stuff but what i think he has effectively done is shift the narrative for the debate from how high to one that maturation, higher for longer. you know there is 50-50 pricing at best for a november hike. now if that does not happen, people will rush in and buy bonds and probably sell the dollar because i think ok, the debate is how long they will keep it at that level. that could be even higher for longer you think it would hurt the equity market but it could
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be good because i know, they know how bad things will be in that sort of stuff and there are no nasty surprises and that would factor into risk currencies like the australian dollar. you can see that whole watershed lift a little bit and i think the dollar would come off second-best as a result. and jerome powell obviously was not addressing the dollar last night but inadvertently he might have made it a little bit harder for the index to get above 1220, and any rally seems to be sold into it. the dial -- dow as put on 13 wins in a row. you know, it's not the world's most fantastic place but in terms of volatility and uncertainty -- [indiscernible] shery: what is the long-term trajectory for the greenback?
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we have seen resilience after we recorded the worst week in november? michael: yeah. that is true. i think the markets, if you look at the index, it is hard if you are square to walk into the room and so that from these levels. but you know there is no reason why we can't get under 1200. we are not far from there now. as the market becomes confident that the u.s. interest rate metrics is like sorted for the want of a better word, then the market will go shopping for better value, the emerging-market space or the australian dollar space or even the japanese yen, we might get some clarity on friday. the carry trade has probably morphed into a range trade console while the volatility is
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a bit [indiscernible] so the rally on the dollar but if it is overdone on the downside, there might be a bit of value towards 1200. it will not be a one-way plunge. haidi: are we seeing over pricing when it comes to ecb hikes now? michael: good question. i think christine lagarde will give us the 25 basis point hike tonight but she has to talk about data dependency and that stuff. haidi: the data has been bad. michael: it has. germany is still in recession. and corporate financing is on the canvas. i can give you plenty of reasons to be bearish on that sound. i can't give you too many. i think that [indiscernible] they are betting there could be a cut followed up by doing what they did in 2008, they reversed
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their behavior known that. so you know, i would call christine lagarde a reluctant hawk, at best, and she would probably be a lot more nimble than the fed would be to change course. i can't see the fed doing that before christmas him but christine lagarde is a different egg. in there is a november -- and there is a november fed meeting so people looking to trade euro the euro or to trade a mismatch and timing, there could be an opportunity there where she has to give no, deal -- you know, deal with what she has got [indiscernible] in the eurozone area but she has to anticipate what may or may not come to fruition. if it is a lame christmas, ecb might be ready to go early next year, if not sooner.
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shery: that was the bloomberg fx rates reporter mike wilson. stellantis says it has no regrets downsizing in china. the ceo says they are under pressure in the world's largest auto market as local competitors cut prices. he has told us the current period requires carmakers to do more to survive. >> this is a periods wher if you don't adapt to a new world of electrification, a world of very strong demand for quality, if we don't adapt, didn't we put ourselves at risk. it is not stellantis triggering that. stellantis is adapting to a new world and we are inviting our suppliers to come along with us and learn as fast as we are learning ourselves by showing them what we are doing. >> volkswagen said it would
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invest $700 million in xpeng and will eventually hold close to a 5% stake in it will also deepen ties with vw's long-term partner to bolster its tv lineup. the w had been the top-selling carbon in china since at least 2008 was first data became available and now trails behind byd. a cargo ship carrying nearly 3000 automobiles is on fire off the coast of the nolan's. about 300 cards made by -- off the coast of the netherlands. about 300 cards are involved. authorities say all have been evacuating including one person who have died. ship tracking data compiled by bloomberg shows that the ship was en route to a port in egypt. haidi: you can get around roundup of the stories you need in today's addition of daybreak. terminal subscribers can get that and it's also able on the mobile bloomberg at and you can
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customize a setting so you get the news on the industries and assets of after to you. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ old school wisdom, with a passion for what's possible. that's what you get from the morgan stanley client experience. you get listening more than talking, and a personalized plan built on insights and innovative technology. you get grit, vision, and the creativity to guide you through a changing world. ♪
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90% decline in quarterly net income. we had a warning earlier in the month from samsung. with us now is the executive and analyst at a securities firm. great to have you with us. you had a buy rating on the stock despite the fact they are under pressure. what gives you optimism about the company? sk: basically it is the memory market in a downturn but it hit a bottom in the second quarter and it is bottoming out from the third quarter, and that is a kind of recovery. and also we see strong demand for ai. [keyboard typing] recently there is a strong demand for the mbm and ai starboard -- so it has the capability and the memory, the
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capability of the high-bandwidth memory and -- capacity. and also recently we did [indiscernible] so samsung is the only alternative supplier over tsmc so we see some opportunity from ai for the share price going forward. [keyboard typing] shery:shery: there seems to be a lot of optimism over ai demand. we had sk hynix pointing to that segment of demand that could lead to her recovery too. what makes you think this could offset the pressures we have already seen for a long time. we have been waiting for that turnaround to happen in trade numbers out of south korea don't necessarily seem to be pointing to any optimism. sk: yeah, actually, yeah, i
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think this is ai demand have a limited [indiscernible] and tsmc guided may not enough to offset the current weakness in the overall demand, but we see some meaningful production cuts from memory suppliers. and also, well, actually, you are showing some of the new foldable phone which was unpacked last night, and yeah, we are hearing that there is some potential delay in the new iphone deliveries, which is expected in september this year but there is a lot of noise regarding the supply chain, so the samsung may have some opportunity to gain share in the premium smartphone with the new upcoming foldable phone. that will drive some sentiment in earnings this year.
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shery: how much of that will be in the lower part of that market segment? sk: yeah, though, the smartphone, yeah, there is a downside [indiscernible] but now [indiscernible] [indiscernible] the demand so there is more shipment for the premium funds such as the galaxy [indiscernible] in the foldable phone. this year we will ship more than 10 million shipment from around seven to 8 million shipment last year so 50% of the shipment growth is expected this year. that will be some positive impact on their operating profit side.
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haidi: going back to the longer-term implications of a high capacity demand, does the outlook better for the foundries first of the stocks that have gained like nvidia? sk: yeah, actually, there aia i even by the gpu -- ai, ai, even the gp use solution, [indiscernible] sentiment but what we are hearing is that the hyper scaler s such as aws, google, microsoft , they are also aggressively developing their own ai solution, but that will also require a lot of the memory, high-bandwidth memory [indiscernible] so i think there is more chance of additional opportunity for these korean chipmakers.
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[keyboard typing] haidi: sk, how much are we watching currency fluctuations at this point? sk: pardon. i am sorry? haidi: how much are we looking for the impact of currency fluctuations and where we see the won trading? sk: ah, you mean the currency as a narrative in second half. but the currency inevitably impacts the chip company business [indiscernible] division, such as smartphone and appliances, so i think the impact from the currency, it is not that meaningful to the company. shery: talk about currencies and
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operating overseas. how are they doing in china? it seems like a lot of competitors have already introduced foldable phones. sk: ah, yeah, foldable phone, i think there is increasing competition but what we are seeing is yeah, some china smartphone makers have [indiscernible] recently emmett so that is related to the market situation like the demand, so that is why after gaining share in -- apple is gaining share in china. i think samsung also has some opportunity and it made not be china, but in asia, such as india and the other, you know, the malaysia for example, so yeah, the chinese maker, yeah, they are introducing the floatable phone but actually --
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foldable phone, but actually demand china is weaker than expected. but what we are seeing is the market, it is a positive for the leading company. shery: yeah, so what are the most positive markets for samsung going forward? sk: yeah, as i mentioned, i think now ai is a key catalyst for the the global market and also samsung has you know an opportunity to catch up to tsmc in terms of their wafer. and also, the hvm and dbr-5, i think those are the semiconductor, ai-related semiconductor opportunity. i think that should be the key catalyst for the samsung, you
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know, in the second half this year. haidi: when you look at chipmakers in korea more broadly, how much have weak earnings and expectations been pricing, and could we see more with the valuations trading close to book? sk: ah, yeah, i think some compared with the weak earnings, i think the share prices are outperforming because as i mentioned, there is sentiment in the bottoming out and the new ai, you know, actually,, ai is not a near-term catalyst. even they can see that that should be more long-term but anyway it is coming, and also you talk about the valuation, yeah, in my coverage, i feel like already a little bit of pressure on the valuation for sk
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hynix. [keyboard typing] but samsung electronics, i think they are trading at like 1.4 times, 1.3, 1.4 times the ppr, so we will have to consider the valuation, and considering the company strong balance sheets compared with their peers, so yeah, i think there is more, i see more upside in the sense on -- samsung electronics for my coverage in the global memory sector. haidi: do stay with us. sk kim will state with us. we will get your reaction as we get numbers out of samsung any moment now. lots more to come here on "bloomberg daybreak: asia". this is bloomberg. ♪
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shery: we will take you to live pictures of the new zealand foreign minister holding a joint news conference with the u.s. secretary of state antony blinken. now we heard from the new zealand foreign minister talking about that new zealand-u.s. relationship being strong and growing and that they welcomed the increasing u.s. residents in the pacific region. we also heard from secretary
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blinken talking about the door being open for new england to engage on the trilateral security pact between australia, the united kingdom, and the u.s. secretary blinken also talking about the importance to engage with china. we will be following those comments as they happen in wellington right now. haidi: yeah, and even more interesting and compelling of pillar one includes things like ai, quantum computing, hypersonics as well, and that could significantly strengthen the u.s. position in the asia-pacific out the time when that engagement with beijing is ongoing. let's get you some other political and geopolitical headlines we are tracking. taiwan's foreign minister said china has been ramping up efforts to influence its 24 presidential election, in part by casting doubt on u.s. support and the ruling party has forge closer ties with washington,
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meeting senior politicians and making arms purchases. speaking exclusively to bloomberg, one person told us that the u.s. is not trustworthy. >> we see the cognitive warfare played by china, and they have begun intensifying this, for example, they use ukraine as an example to show united states is not reliable. if you look at the lytic landscape here in taiwan, it is normally described as a political party that is more pro-united states and there are more lyrical parties that have been described as pro-china, and therefore, the chinese must be thinking that if they can change the minds of some critical minority, they might be able to change the outcome of the election. haidi: the pentagon plans to issue a first-time contract for a u.s. or canadian company to recover gallium, a mineral used
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in semiconductors and military radar systems. china does month curb its export in another key mineral germanium and the contract is for the recovery of the mineral from waste streams of other products. shery: any time now we will get results from samsung electronics. this would be the second-quarter numbers. the expectation is for more a more than 90% decline in quarterly net income. we will get the visual break downs and be watching for capital spending and whether samsung actually sees recovery in the memory chip market. the market opens in sydney, seoul, korea, and tokyo are next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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shery: this is daybreak: asia. we saw the head -- the fed hiking rates again, 25 basis points, which takes interest rates to be highest level in 22 years. this was a unanimous decision. if this was not enough, we now have the samsung second-quarter earnings results. haidi: that is right. we do have the second-quarter consolidated net 1.5 5 trillion yuan, better-than-expected agents when it comes to sales coming through, 60 trillion yuan, second-quarter sales at 60 trillion yuan. this is late when it comes to samsung earnings coming so close basically after the market we are watching of course commentary when it comes to the
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chip demand. they are expecting a gradual recovery in demand in the second half, shery. shery: trading has started in japan. we will take you there. the nikkei now down point 4%, we see the downside as treasury yields are also coming back online. the 10-year yield slightly higher, so that. level. chair powell said he does not see inflation rates returning to be fed's 2% goal until 2025 and then at the same time talking about the fed making a decision not to hike it every other meeting. what we follow now is what happens with the ecb next and who comes next, the boj.
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everybody hedging what could happen to take a look at the japanese yen, moving at the 140 level as well. let's turn to the biggest stop, samsung, higher by .4%. because dac is down. samsung electronics has started trading up .1 percent, this of course as we had expected that net income to drop significantly. we are, of course, coming off the back of those earnings results, which we were watching very closely with sk beating expectations, but still be stock actually fell. we are learning to talk a little bit about this, but also australia is also open, haidi. haidi: yeah. and we see the fed also taking in that than expected deceleration, ahead of the leak.
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we see some of the bets being moved, that we will see the hike next week. shery, pretty flat started trading today here in sydney. of course that staggered open not moving too much to either direction, but of course oil prices is something when it comes to a central big headache. back to samsung, though, take a look at those numbers. sherri: yeah, consolidated and that, the estimate was for 195 billion won, so we are coming in a little bit higher than what was expected by analysts. sk kim, executive director and analyst at die walk -- daiwa capital joins us now. it seems consolidated net has beat expectations, but of course we were watching for that divisional background --
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breakdown. is there anything here that surprises you? sk yeah. i think the positive upside is coming from the mobile headset and also the samsung display. so it is more related to the premium smartphone. so it comes with the dependent supplier for iphones, so it looks like there's some production for the new motor, upcoming new motor in the second half, and also they picture the higher margins for the smartphone with the higher premium as well as of course the saving from the component side. haidi: when it comes to the memory demand, outlook, i expect that gradual recovery. it is a lot less positive from the sentiment we have from sk.
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it was a big mess. is that worrisome for you? sk: yes, for the semiconductor, including memory, following the first quarter, also the gradual recovery in the second half. so that means meaningful recovery, but sentiment-wise, clearly we are bottoming out of the cycle, and, yeah, the speed of the recovery, it could meet the floor, but maybe the positive side is coming from the ai. so the new, you know, the order for ai is related.
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haidi: sk kim, executive director and analyst at daiwa capital, that reaction pretty interesting, because samsung is now down while sk hynix is actually gaining ground. the big policy decision today coming from the federal reserve, hiding its key rate to a 22-year high, chair powell opening the door to another rate hike based on the next two months of reports. kathleen hays is here with more. we were just saying how chair powell had something for everything come -- everything for everyone, for the bulls, for the bears, what did you take away? kathleen: one of the things coming out of this meeting, people talking on tv, posting things on , sure, people chair powell went out of his way -- posting things on twitter, sure, chair powell went out of
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his way come up he did not give guidance. how low does a good for you have to pause? every time he got a question like that, he said "let me repeat what i said," he was very good about leaving this open. in terms of what he has said over and over again, as the fed gets back on the rate hiking path in july, almost two months until the next meeting in september, it is going to be all about the numbers. not about preset conclusions about with the numbers tell the fed to do. let's listen. chair powell: i would say it is certainly possible that we would raise funds again at the september meeting, if the data warranted. i would also say it is possible that we would choose to pulled steady about meeting -- hold steady at that meeting. we will make those decisions meeting by meeting. kathleen: waiting to see what we get from inflation reports, from employment reports.
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they will be two of each of those categories in the next couple of months, so this is very important. he did say that yes, we had this great june cpi, it can do more than expected, but it is only one number. he said that many times. we have to see more numbers that inflation is coming down and will continue to come back to about 2% target. the cpi in june having a 3% handle, actually core inflation, which is set to deliver 5% year-over-year on the cpi, it is a better signal for where that headline is going to go. again, yes, it is great, but he said they will take the lads monetary policy, the team lviv -- the lags in monetary policy, the cumulative to see what they will do. with the balance at what could be coming down the road even without more rate hikes. importantly, there has been a lot of talk about a soft landing it is it really possible? powell has said many times it is
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possible to have a mild slowdown. as for a real outright recession, here is what he had to say. chair powell: this affect had a noticeable slowdown in the forecast but given the resilience of the economy recently, they are no longer forecasting a recession. kathleen: it is so easy come isn't it? we will just watch the numbers. every one that comes out -- i'm being facetious, of course, it is not that easy. i think he tried so hard and made it very clear, we are not sure. we don't know what we are going to do. they don't want markets to start reacting to, "oh, he said the cpi went down this much, " right? some people would say it was underwhelming, but at the same time, i think, in a way, he made himself pretty darn clear. haidi: for sure. we will be watching jackson hole. our global economics and policy
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editor with the latest on the fed. let's discuss the market applications -- implications for asia with homin lee. he did not want to be holding to anyone camp, but at the same time, it seems to be an understanding that we will stay higher for longer, even if it is the final for the year is still a pretty high rate, the highest in 22 years. what are the implications for the markets across asia? homin: well, for asian markets, investors will start thinking about the peak rate regime and what assets can benefit from that shift. in our view come of course, chairman powell, you know, remains open-minded about the dental new action in september, but our expectation is the
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growth indicators and inflation indicators will actually be a little bit weaker as we go forward, and it might be enough to convince the fed not to do more, and, you know, start shifting markets' focus to how long they can keep the upper bound of the fed, that target at 5.5 percent. if we are right in that forecast, then we think the peak rate that will be the key thing for all of the markets, including asia, and also the possibility of maybe a cap for the dollar strength. and in general, that is a slightly better environment for investors in asia markets. when the dollar stabilizes and you don't have to worry about gigantic rate hikes anymore, it certainly makes it easier for asian markets. we do expect a more favorable environment for asian markets, especially fixed income, in the next six months to 12 month, both at asia level and the global level.
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shery: when it comes to the japanese market, you announced you do not necessarily see a compelling reason to go after such a popular market. homin: well, we do think for the medium to long-term, the outlook for the japanese economy has brightened. there is a tangible prospect in many dimensions. that will continue to anchor the market performance in the long run. however, there has been a pretty significant rally in the japanese market, and part of it is driven by the weakness of the yen, rather unexpected weakness of the yen. we do expect the bank of japan to move either tomorrow or in the september policy meeting. that could potentially remove the support for the dollar-yen and also the japanese equity. so this is the reason why we are slightly more careful about chasing that story, for now. haidi: it's confounding, because
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it feels like we've had consisted messaging of caution from governor waido and others. you see this almost as if it is live, as if there are expectations askew toward some kind of announcement or tweak toward policy, and at the same time, you are seeing risk reversals the lowest since 2020. there's a lot of risk of potential in the rally is welcome at what is going on in terms of market sentiment? homin: we still think, you know, the markets on the fence about the potential moved by the bank of japan and the scope of appreciation by the yen. in our view, this is a good opportunity for investors. in terms of the bmj, they have been very careful. from our perspective, it does not make sense for the boj to
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announce a move beforehand. they are very careful about it. keep in mind the bank of japan come even after they make a move, they can certainly keep the short-term rates low for the foreseeable future. and that is kind of a fig leaf for the bank of japan, to claim that they are keeping the policy easy, even if they tweak a bit, because it has been a source for them and for the cabinet. in our view, the upcoming meeting, tomorrow, is a live one, you know, if they don't move tomorrow, the potential as they could move in september. inflation has been moving above the target, wages are moving up here and we think the conditions are right for the bank of japan to spring a surprise, and if so, then it is going to be a good story for the yen. haidi: in the meantime, do
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continue to chase, you know, this fervent rally we see across japanese equities? what we see more breadth when it comes to that rally, certain equities lack the trading houses, lacked the chick stops -- chip stocks? homin: we do have the allocations of japanese equity, and for that, we continue to focus on domestic demand stories, because that has proven a bit more resilient than the market expected this time of year. with the potential appreciation of the yen, it can add more to be domestic demand, because the power of consumers would actually strengthened a little bit in real-time going forward. so, you know, in terms of sales for the market, we continue to focus on the balance approach, specifically focused on large caps, and, you know, we maintain that approach for now.
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patrick: some analysts predict the market to grow by 2027. we do expect to catch a large part of growth. i can say it is the growing category, and what drives the period is actually quality. as quality and innovation. shery: samsung electronics vice president patrick speaking exclusively to bloomberg as samsung unveiled their new product to we are seeing the stock fluctuating between gains and losses at the moment, higher by .3%. this after they announced a net profit came in at 1.5 5,000,000,000,001 -- 1.5 5 trillion won. let's bring in peter, our
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executive on hstech -- asia tech . now they are higher. what do they seem to like? peter: investors seem to be struggling to figure out exactly what to make from this earnings are or, as you mentioned. shares started down, and now they have recovered a bit. the numbers came out a little bit ago. we got net income results better, divisional breakdowns here. we are able to see how the smartphone division did and the memory chip division. one of the signals that investors are taking as a positive sign as samsung saying they are seeing a gradual recovery in the memory chip market. as you recall, we seen a pretty sharp downturn in demand as people stop buying smart phones and computers at the same rates they had in the past. that caused a pretty big buildup in the memory chip market here all the memory chip makers,
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including samsung, now samsung is saying they are seeing a bit of a recovery there. sk hynix, their doing better. they are seeing that as a sign that perhaps things will get better in the second half of the year. haidi: when it comes to the electronic side of the business, what is the outlook,, what about apple's more affordable products? peter: it is interesting, as you say, they unveiled their new smartphones just overnight, a few hours ago, he two homin lee's. they have spent a lot of money on this, they got the components including the screens to be able to innovate. the sales are taking up a bit. it is still a small volume compared to the mainstream market, but homin lee's are catching on. they are hitting price points -- but foldable phones are
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catching on. they told us they want to bring that price point down a bit and make them much more affordable and down to the mass market. that is a challenge because the screens are quite expensive to make on top of the other components they need. that is the direction they are pushing income and they feel like they would like to get there as soon as possible. anticipating apple would look at this market and perhaps introduce a foldable iphone. samsung wants to get their first with something they can afford more easily than these high-end phones. shery: peter elstrom with the latest on samsung. of course we are in the thick of earnings season right now. 500 companies worldwide reporting results. meta, one of them, beat estimates and gave a rosy outlook, sending shares higher after hours. what led to that revenue beat, su keenan? su: the cfo saying advertising is strong, although they do see
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it will be hard to predict going forward. so revenue is back. that is the story. third quarter guidance beat expectations. so did the car quarter, take a look at the green on the screen. you will notice meta at up, up as much as 8%, 7% at the tail end of extending trading. this key story seems to be that investors are buying the year's efficiency theme that ceo mark zuckerberg laid out earlier in the year. revenue forecast, again, strong do to advertising that, at least for now, it appears to be back on track. the ai arms race is a key theme, meta is conceding that cost a lot of money. it is driving spending, total expensive $91 billion in 2023.
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that is a much higher estimate than before. and threads. ceo zuckerberg asking for patience, saying it is very early in the game to start talking about how much money that new twitter-like app might make. haidi: meta is meta because of the metaverse , right? we are not hearing much about that part of the business. su: no, but that does not mean they are not spending more money or more importantly losing money on the reality labs on the unit that is to effectuate mark zuckerberg's division that we will soon all one day be living under the metaverse and living with metaverse-type products. labs continuing to add up to it on the conference call, everybody appeared happy to hear mark zuckerberg talk about ai
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and their sourced ai tech, and its potential to bring in revenue. again, a lot of optimism about how to cut costs and be efficient so far. haidi: bloomberg's su keenan there. stay tuned for a conversation with meta's cfo susan li. this is bloomberg. ♪ 76% of 23andme health customers surveyed reported taking healthier actions. more exercise. eating healthier. and simply getting more sleep. because they know health isn't just a future state. health happens now. with over 150 personalized genetic reports from 23andme
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fabulous surroundings... but everyone's looking at their phones for financial insights from merrill. is he hailing a ride to the concert hall? no. he's making sure his portfolio and retirement plans work in harmony. they want to adopt a child and build a new home. so they're talking numbers with their merrill adviser. she's not researching her next role. she's learning how to handle market ups and downs without the drama. personalized advice so impressive your money never stops working for you with merrill. a bank of america company. haidi: taking a look at what we are setting up for what it comes to the european open, risk assets also reacting to that fed decision. pretty steady after european stocks snapped the largest ring
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since january. leaving the biggest lag, lvmh feeling the pain of a slowdown in u.s. consumer business. take a look, it is all about the ecb. that is crucial where the euro heads from here. the messaging is going to be everything. we are expecting christine lagarde to have that optionality of a hike for september and potentially push back against any expectations of a rate cut. it looks like they will update more than that, potentially over passing hawkishness in the ecb at the moment in light of data that really shows anything from pmi's to germany's re
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reporting across the world right now. take a look at nissan, now down 3.8% after third-quarter results that actually boosted their full year operating income forecasts and beat estimates. we saw sales volumes in china declining. cap con gaming -- capcom gaining more than 11% after profits beat estimates. macquaire group also hit on weak trading. samsung announcing their net profit of one point -1.55 trillion won beat estimates. weakness of the korean won also positive. reaffirming operating income guidance for the full year,
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guidance actually missed the average analyst estimates. they had quarterly sales that beat estimates but the stock itself actually lost ground. exports could face a gradual recovery, not only for sk hynix but samsung, haidi. haidi: and really clinging onto most of the profit-for etta of- for meta of eight percent. gene munster, investors bought into this. is that because they are buying into the year of efficiency? is it because valuation still look compelling for meta within that big tech cohort? gene: part of it is the
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valuation picture, but the growth part is very notable. going into the earnings, this is the year of efficiency. zuckerberg talked about it. there was some disconnect on the commentary between their guidance and some of the reiteration that this is the year of efficiency. as they raise revenue for the september quarter by 7%, they essentially kept operating income unchanged and talked about the spending increase in investments next year. all of that makes perfect sense, but that is not the cost-cutting year of efficiency that they have talked about over the past year. essentially, the new language, i would say if i was going to capture what investors are thinking, this is the year of efficient growth. in other words, investors are ok with some of the pressure that is going to come with margins over the next year and a half, if they are able to result in growth. an example that zuckerberg gave was there threads product, but it was built on a very small
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team that did it quickly. when he mentioned that, the stock was up 4.5%, then it went up 6.5 percent in after-hours. i think that is an indication that investors like this concept of efficient growth. it is an important dynamic, because against meta an opportunity to invest more pressure margins, it got to deliver on the products, a road map onto knives earnings call. haidi: does it seem like investors are ok with things not being as efficient with things like ai, investor enthusiasm, and how hard will it be for companies to deliver on that growth and also manage expectations of investment, given, as you point out, it is very difficult to work out where the scale is for the money that you spend on capacity for ai. gene: undoubtedly, when you use the word ai, that gives investors room to give leeway to
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invest more. the peace in your set up accurately talked about the increase of investment reality labs. that will be significant. it is not ai. it is almost the opposite of ai. the concept of the metaverse and apple's facial computing, that has been the road for the last eight years. they are different than the last kickoff we've see with artificial intelligence. what is remarkable about the stock reaction of meta if they are able to talk about increased investment in ai and reality labs, get the investors are ok with it. they were not shy about what the income is going to be too reality labs. they invested or team billion dollars -- they invested billions of dollars, and next year they are looking for 16 billion, north of 20 billion. this is a huge investment, get
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investors are ok with that, because this golden nugget about growth, and just to bring it one step higher is that the idea of investors being more, i guess, judicious around profitability than we saw it nine months ago, that whole theme, that investment curve potentially has now shifted back to classic tech investing, which is invest in growth, and we are seeing it with meta shares. shery: jean, of course we are heading toward amazon earnings next week as well. what will you be watching? gene: it is all about aws. it grew at 14% last quarter. azure and microsoft, google cloud at 27%. one of the big pressure points here, we think every stock going into earnings has one pressure point, lots of things to talk about, but one pressure point. of course with aws, with amazon, it is about aws to put a finer
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went on it, it is really about what expectations for aws is going to be for the back half of the year. we seen this rapid decline in aws growth, from the 40's to down to what will be likely 30% in june to what is most important is the commentary about the back half of what that growth is. investors who own amazon today are expecting the commentary to be up i think it will be upbeat. i think the stocks will trade higher. one of the reasons that aws growth will re-accelerate in november and december is that the costs get easier, and secondly, all of the data usage around cloud is being propelled by ai. aws also has that as a beneficiary. so amazon next week, it is all about aws, and i think the outlook will be positive for the back half of the year. shery: how difficult as i get to predict what is going to happen next year when the ai investment
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in all these big tech companies become a bit more murky? gene: zuckerberg talked about that in a call. he said, "mark your calendars here, september 22," that they will announce new products, ai chatbots for small business but he also said we don't know what the uptake is going to be, so they are holding off on giving guidance for capex next year until they see what the products start to give. that is a difficult dynamic for investors. you basically have to prepare. it will be a big number for investment in the back half of the year to you almost want it to be a big number, because that means his products are starting to get some traction. you heard a little bit of that yesterday with microsoft and google talking about, "this is a long-term," i'm not the type of person to hype things up. there's a lot of hype around ai,
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and i think that will in fact exceed that over the next five years. haidi: gene, i'm going to talk to you about tesla and elon musk's, now x, formerly twitter. what is he trying to achieve with the everything app? gene: i guess, probably for some people close to it, they would consider it a strategy. i think it is probably more of an impulse. i think that he has had this desire to build x more broadly. this has kind of been in his works for a long time. he has not want to be owner of twitter. i think some of the recent fluctuations in the business kind of have compounded his desire, diminished his desire to propel it forward as is. so, you know, if you want to call it a strategy, called an impulse, what it is is he is basically, you know, tearing the cover off what is going on here and going to do a restart, essentially a full restart.
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and what i think most about it, outside of the branding, is, what is he going to add to it that is going to enhance the experience? of course he has this ai piece to it now that stands separate to twitter, the company formerly known as twitter. [laughs] if he somehow brings about into the experience, that i will call it a strategy, but if he just rebrand into x because he loves that name and something is always thought about, then it is an impulse. shery: when you look at threads, i know that we talk about how zuckerberg wants patience on this, but do you think this is a viable rival? gene: i do. and i think that kind of, from the highest level, think about where humidity is going. there's a lot of debate about how it will ultimately impact humanity. one area where there's little
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debate is where it will create more division. the concept of truth is going to be more elusive. when you have a platform like twitter, it tends to be a little bit more combative and lean a bit more right, it leaves opportunity for another platform, was arc of her calls it, "a platform without the noise." -- what zuckerberg calls it, "a platform without the noise." if you put numbers on it, about if one-third of twitter users move over, that is 100 million users. a very different math than what i had, when musk says there's one billion users, but i think threads is here to stay because of the lack of what is truth, i think that is going to create an opportunity for another form like threads to take hold. haidi: gene e munster, great to
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have you come a partner at deepwater asset management with, of course, all of the tech earnings and what is happening with ai. stay tuned frank conversation with meta cfo susan li, nine: 30 a.m. in san francisco, 12:30 in new york. this is bloomberg. ♪ mmmm, your morning coffee hot delicious comfng. but by the third or fourth cup, your stomach might not feel so good. if that sounds like you replace your afternoon cup with 5-hour energy. it's perfect for when you're feeling coffeed-out. coffee in the morning... 5-hour energy after. your stomach will thank you. discover 5-hour energy. ♪♪
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haidi: taiwan's foreign minister says china has been ramping up efforts to influence its 2024 election, in part with u.s. support. in an exclusive interview, joseph wu said china has been boosting its -- taiwan has been boosting its own security, as threats from beijing intensify. minister wu: the reality is people go on and live their lives. we are not impacted by the chinese threat. in fact, what china wants is to defeat taiwan without the actual use of force. they are following the classical art of war. they think they can crush the enemy without use of force. they can continue to intimidate taiwan militarily, trying to
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suffocate taiwan internationally, or try to course taiwan economically. but we can see that taiwan stays resilient. >> so much of the strategy in taiwan is not to provoke china, but what could trigger a conflict across the straits? minister wu: there's a number of things. one is taiwan leaders does something or act on something that will be considered as provocative. another thing is they may find taiwan a convenient scapegoat. if you look at the situation in taiwan, the economy is slowing down, there's a lot probably slowing economy or the chinese economy getting in trouble. real estate is in real trouble right now. putting all this together, people will not be happy. there is a report that the
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employment rate in china for young people is something like 20% or a little over 20%. this is the kind of situation that taiwan needs to watch very carefully. >> are there new types of interference you are preparing for before the election? minister wu: this time around, we see warfare being played by china, and they are intensifying this. for example, they use ukraine as an example to show that the united states is not reliable. the united states used ukraine to weaken russia, but the united states is not participating in the war itself. they show to the public overhear the devastation or atrocities in ukraine is going to be the future of taiwan. they are trying to discredit the united states. they are trying to show to the taiwanese people that the united states is not trustworthy. they use other examples, for
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instance, taiwan's investment in arizona for the semiconductor industry. and the chinese company warfare against taiwan is that the united states is a conspiracy and ruining taiwan's semiconductor industry. if you look at the political landscape here in taiwan, the tpp no more is described as a political party that is more pro-the united states and there are other political parties being described as pro-china. the chinese must be thinking if they can change the minds of some critical minority, they might be able to shape the outcome of the election. >> how effective are those misinformation campaigns, viewed by you? minister wu: we did a public survey last year, and it shows the public competency in the nazis dropped quite significantly, so it has an effect -- in the united states
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dropped quite significantly, so it has an effect. but of course, when you have this debate or the narratives proposed by china, they take up concrete actions, bringing back the people's confidence in the united states, the example of providing real supportive taiwan is the refining of the trade pact with taiwan. >> how can you maintain peace if there is no dialogue with asia? minister wu: if we want dialogue, it takes two to tango. it is always like that. we have been proposing dialogues in between taiwan and china ever since, when president tsai took over. it is an understanding of the international community already. we are trying to continue the
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opportunities for dialogue between taiwan and china, so there's a chance for the two sides to talk with each other. shery: taiwan's foreign minister joseph wu speaking exclusively to "bloomberg businessweek" executive editor joel weber in taipei. we're not really seeing much change from that mirror 32,000 level. real estate, consumer, discretionary stocks leading the gains and tech leading the declines. this on the eve of the boj policy could nothing expected to change, but perhaps we could see a sharp increase for the inflation forecast this fiscal year. ramping up protection against the surge in the yen. the costly rebound and losses in the previous two sections as samsung as fluctuating between ganz and losses after seeing the author beating expectations. this is bloomberg. ♪
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better when it comes to singapore air's numbers. danny: that is right, expecting strong momentum off the back of this fiscal year and the third fiscal quarter. singapore air looking for 700 million dollars, that would be the last quarter. it is all about the strong demand, and that is all despite the airlines still back at pre- covid levels, 10 percentage points off what is normal. that is really gaining, very much a story of airlines, reporting earnings at the moment, all of them beating estimates and raising guidance. we will be looking to hear from singapore airlines what the future looks like particularly into the fourth quarter. do they see sustained demand, very much given the global
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economic environment, a recession or not. very much singapore airlines very much got the headlines, the world's best airlines right now. haidi: given concerns -- shery: given concerns about a potential global recession, how is cargo looking? danny: cargo, that has been a story of helping the airline through the pandemic, seeing how much they are carrying and earning from that. but with the passenger business coming back, and we have seen this story with the number of airlines, we are looking for a softer yields, robust revenue in the cargo business for airlines like singapore air. if you are looking toward how they feel, it will still be very, very key. shery: transport reporter danny
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lee. all about central banks right now, the hike from the federal reserve behind us now, but the ecb is next up in the boj following up on friday. traders rushing to hedge in the event of a surprise from governor ueda. we know that more than 80% of economists do not expect more this time around, but everybody seems to be hedging. david: it might be the best time to smuggle in some sort of change when no one is looking. certainly to pass the time. no such thing as they tweet policy sooner than later. the passage of time is really a matter of when than if it in case you get a rally in the yen, for example, risk level is back to the highest level here, going back to 2020 when you had the
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yen surge after the pandemic hit. we are moving into this 24-hour window, and overnight actually back to levels, these are the two meetings where markets were expecting some change, right at about back to those levels right now. we are bracing for any potential change. haidi? haidi: david ingles there. it is incredible about the markets. we've heard from both economists and of course governor ueda himself going into this meeting. u.s. futures of course when it comes to the asian session passing through, the reaction to the fed, we saw the initial reaction was stocks gaining, treasury falling, the dollar falling as well. futures about .7% to we will see
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that reaction across the board when it comes to chip and aia and chip-adjacent stocks. samsung certainly not as exuberant to the upside when it comes to that ship recovery. they see a gradual, perhaps more modest recovery going into the second half. also watching of course the start of trading in china. have we seen a deceleration from the enthusiasm following this we's rally? still up about .5%. coming up later, we will be speaking to the vice president and the copresident of exxon -- xpeng, brian gu. this is bloomberg. ♪
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