lizzy: good morning, this is

"bloomberg daybreak: europe." i'm lizzy burden in london. china leads asian stocks higher while at global bond selloff rolls on, focus shifts to today's u.s. jobs report. chinese assets get a boost on expectations of more funding for the private property sector. pboc vows to step up monetary support. a tale of two tech giants. amazon shares sore after hours after estimates on e-commerce sales, but apple is down on lower than anticipated iphone sales. good morning, happy friday. we made it but the global bond market right not. it is set to be the worst week for those treasury since october when the fed hiked twice by 75 basis points. this is as investors digest the news of the upcoming u.s. debt issuance. who will swallow this extra

supply? if you cannot rely on foreign demand, where do you turn? it has to go somewhere. we get the all-important u.s. payrolls data. will the market extend losses off the back of those numbers? u.s. equity futures pointing higher. amazon posting results, and oil with another weekly gain after saudi and russia teased deeper cuts. not great for those looking for yield relief. let's go to hf or more on how markets are faring. -- let's go to asia for more on how markets are faring. some support from the china central bank but not as much as markets were hoping for. >> yes, we are looking at a muted session in asia with china being the bright spot in a sea of red. chinese markets opened strongly in the morning. the country's newly appointed

central bank governor with the largest private developers to hear about the difficulties and financing needs, and the central bank vowed to provide more funding support to the private sector. it gave a big boost to property stocks in the morning, but then the broader markets pared gains later in the early hours after a closely watched briefing failed to deliver new policy measures. elsewhere in the region, australia's central bank has trimmed their estimates of the gdp growth this year for the country to 0.9%, down from the early estimated 1.2%. it is seeing inflation could return to its targeted range of 2.3% by the end of 2025, a sign

which market observers are saying because suggest interest rates could stay elevated for longer. equities fell slightly into the negative territory. lizzy: thank you for that update . i want to bring the latest breaking earnings. go to frankfurt for the latest out of commerzbank. this report was expected to be upbeat. they had burdens from poland expected to be a critical risk. you are seeing the net interest income's outlook for 2023 raised . second quarter operating profit comes in at 880 million euros. that beats estimates. commerzbank will apply for a further share buyback. bloomberg reported the ceo is considering raising the profitability target to above 10%. shares are up 24% year-to-date. we will bring you an interview

with the cfo later to discuss those earnings. that is on bloomberg markets at 7:10. we have earnings from credit agricole, a big beat on estimates. second quarter revenue comes in at 6.8 billion euros, another beat. second quarter operating expenses, 3.2 one billion euros, shy of estimates. net interests margin has been hampered by his french retail network but a strong set of results, the shares are up 14% year-to-date. we will speak exclusively to the deputy ceo at 7:30 u.k. time. that is your latest on the earnings. let's go to the morning roundtable.

i want to start with earnings. let's turn to last night. we have amazon and apple both posting results after the bell. amazon rallying 10% post market on a better than estimated outlook, boosted by e-commerce as well as second-quarter earnings beat. apple slid as iphone sales disappointed. it says revenue will stay sluggish. it is a challenging environment. apple's overall revenue beat but it was punished on the street, why? >> it was about the slow down in sales, but i agree that the market was confused when the results came out. the stock popped before falling 3% in after-hours trade. all about the slowdown in sales. overall sales have slumped for a third quarter in a row. it is the worst run of sales decline apple has seen in the last 20 years.

apple's biggest moneymaker, the iphone come accounts for half of the annual sales, and it slipped over 2% in the second quarter, slightly worse than estimates. a bit of a whipsaw after hours but overall the attention on the dower sales that led the stock 3% lower. manus: china was a brick -- lizzy: a bit of a bright spot, but the ax wielding seems to be paying off. >> what you saw was revenue and beats digging into these numbers, aws, look at how well web services performed. this is the driver of the company's profits. we did see a slowdown in sales. 12% slower than a year ago but ultimately that is stabilizing growth. they stopped short of telling us

there would be a big rebound, but having that revenue beat estimates is positive news for amazon. what was also interesting, comments on the future of ai looks like for the company, saying a bit early to say how it will play in, but analysts are looking for how ai will play into how web services develops. that is one to look out for amazon as well. lizzy: let's turn to the bond market, the moves rapidly souring, raising the stakes for today's all-important jobs data. give us a preview. >> markets are expecting moderation in the labor market numbers. it is actually going to be the smallest number of jobs added since december, 2021. average hourly earnings is expected to moderate slightly,

coming at 4.2% versus 4.4%. it really feels like the market is hesitant to trade this number. this week is been about unwinding positioning given the staggering volatility in the long end of the treasury market. we not only get this payroll print but we have one more before the fed convenes again. perhaps due to the upcoming data before the fed meets, and we will also get two cpi prints, and the market may be less likely to think this will change direction for the fed. lizzy: it was interesting to see elon musk joining the growing chorus, saying t-bills are a no-brainer. bill gross joining in says he is overall bearish on 10 year yields. the surge in long-term

yields has gone around the world, what are you seeing in the asia-pacific? >> you are seeing australia and new zealand bonds follow the u.s., they tivoli do that but the spill over into emerging markets around here is fairly limited. we look at indonesia as a benchmark because of the amount of liquidity, the size of the market is up but not that much. overall, it seems like emerging market bonds are relatively ok. they are looking at the increasing supply and the fed hiking. it does seem outside of australia and new zealand you are seeing limited movement in emerging markets. we are still looking at how things will develop further. lizzy: china's central bank said it will boost funding for the private sector. this is after a meeting with the

pboc governor. the trip feet is continuing but how significant is this development. >> look less at what china is saying about the private sector and more at what they are looking at in terms of attentional property sector movement. we have been looking at the pboc statement with property developers was looking like. there is the top economic planner. the minister of finance was talking about additional measures. you are right calling it a trip feet. a lot of it is not broad or new policy measures that government is rolling out. a lot of it is telegraphed and a lot of statements the chinese government has put out the last several days and weeks. a couple weeks ago this idea of limited and targeted support for various sectors in trouble like the property market, shoring up confidence among private firms

is all true. what we are seeing in these statements and policies rolled out, very specific and targeted measures, and in some cases, vague promises to increase funding or help with liquidity needs. that means if we are still seeing the trickle of new information, it will take time before we might see that translate into concrete policies. lizzy: before we reached a critical mass for investors. i want to stay with central banks. the bank of england governor andrew bailey says it is too soon to declare victory and the battle against inflation. your daily note says you are too distracted by treasuries to care about the bank of england. i am personally offended. surprisingly the pound came back to flat. explain. >> speaking for the market, we are distracted by the treasury

market during bailey's testimony. interesting that the pound got back flat given the fact a smaller than expect hike led to the terminal rate expectation priced into the market fell slightly. normally when you get that dynamic, you see the currency weaken. it is perhaps due to positioning. sterling did and the session higher. we did not get an announcement on qt, expect to hear more about that from bailey at the september meeting. that was the market worry to add to this treasury steepening move. i am distracted by the treasury market. it is nice to see yields rallying, hopefully we get a breather. lizzy: if qt is going like clockwork, why speed it up? let's look at what we have, at 7:00 a.m. german factory orders for june, they are on a monthly

basis and expected to go into negative territory with a smaller decline on an annual basis. at 12:15 we hear from the bank of england economist, he is usually sent out to clarify misinterpreted sages. -- misinterpreted messages. he is suggesting brits need to accept they are poorer. at 1:30 we get the all-important u.s. nonfarm payrolls report. thanks to bloomberg's reporters for our morning roundtable. you can get a roundup of the stories you need to know by going to today's edition of "daybreak." if previews the u.s. jobs report and brings you the latest on treasuries, then there is a story about jeremy hunt to find out how any bank customers have

been blacklisted about their political views. nigel farage being de-banked, it finds a range for banks guilty of that. they have details on amazon and apple earnings, all of that on today's edition of the daybreak newsletter. coming up, oil heads for its longest streak of weekly gains in over a year after saudi arabia and russia extend production cuts. this is bloomberg. ♪

lizzy: welcome back. want to drive into what is going on in these markets with mark

cranfield, our mliv strategist. we will start with oil. prices jumping on the saudi supply cuts, but what does it mean across assets? mark: i think the thing about the recent spike in oil prices is for a lot of macro traders, they have written off oil is a major component in the price thinking for quite a while. oil has been in a range between $70 and $90, and nobody is expecting it to break out of that range. it looks like there is a serious threat it might break through the top end and go above $90 again even towards $100, which is what some analysts calling for. that is not something people are factoring into pricing. it comes as the same time as we have german oil in the treasury market, and germans are sensitive to rising oil prices. it is a bit of a situation were traders have to look back at what happened last time in oil

prices. treasury yields were close to when oil is priced near $100 last year. but oil at the time was on the way down. it was starting to fall. this time we have concerns about the u.s. because of the downgrade by fitch. all people want to know about is the treasury market, and oil prices are going up. it is a nasty cocktail for people in the bond market and it will spill over into currencies and equities as well. from having no impact, everybody needs to know what is happening to oil, and there could be more fallout if we go above $90 towards $100, it could be a lot of pain across asset classes. lizzy: let's talk about futures with a good asia session, what is going on? mark: amazon and it's very

strong performance aftermarket but it goes beyond that. amazon stock was up 10% at one stage. the story goes further because people are getting used to the idea that tech stocks can perform reasonably well when interest rates are high. for a long time it was a typical reaction function if yields go up, not good for tech stocks but the big companies that disappointed slightly still made loads of money. the other companies are getting decent results as well. the big companies are able to show they can make plenty of revenue even in an environment where rates are high. yields have been higher for a year already, so they have been getting used to it, they have shown they can overcome it. people need to rethink that maybe the headwinds from high yields are not as great as people were trying to say at the

beginning of the year. that is probably why they have had such a strong performance and it has not finished yet. you can probably go further even if treasury yields go higher. lizzy: what is more important, today's payrolls are next week's treasury auctions? mark: payrolls are important but next week's auction is huge. we have not had an auction in treasuries with so much interest in months, probably the biggest auction of the year because some things we have been discussing this week, people are more concerned about the u.s. fiscal situation. there is a big push and 30 year yields, and 30 year auctions are notoriously difficult. there is a limited investor base for the long end of the yield curve. that auction will not be easy to get through at all. the market will be relieved once they see that auction out-of-the-way. it is already causing disturbance. yields are up quickly but there

is a tenure auction as well and a lot of bonds to sell next week. the treasury has a lot of work to do in the weeks ahead. treasury yields will need to factor in plenty of supply, possibly bad news on the deficit situation. that makes the auction process more difficult next week, and everybody will watch carefully to see where the fallout is. lizzy: bloomberg mliv strategist, mark cranfield, great to have you with us. plenty more ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪

lizzy: bank of america ceo brian moynihan says proposed new capital requirements for the biggest lenders would shift more financial activity outside well regular to sectors. in an exclusive interview with

bloomberg, he said the rules will make u.s. banks less competitive globally. >> i think if you step back, this industry is well-capitalized. it proved it again in another crisis. it is well-managed, well-regulated. we have chairs and people working over the years saying capital is adequate in the industry, well-managed. banks will fail. they have failed throughout history, that happens. since the financial crisis, more people are under the tent. if you get the capital regulations and the banking system too tight, you push some outside the tent, and that is a concern. give us a set of rules and we will live with it. bank of america will adjust the business model to make it work. it is competitive united states versus europe and others, it makes all banks less competitive

to midsize u.s. companies. that is more of a trade question in a balance of power question. i'm surprised by the amount of dissent. i have been working on rattle reserve stuff for my whole career and i was surprised by the debate. whether it is tax benefits or treatment for clean energy investments or the basic trading , there is a lot that has to go over the dam to get the rules right. >> over the years you said there is a rule of regulation and you will live with it. what is the problem being addressed? you talk about -- i'm not sure this addresses that? >> that is the debate. strong regulation support and rapid growth in banks tends to come from things that turnout to

be not so interesting. they need to come to an agreement across the world. we are supplying with more rigidity in requirements. if you look at the largest bank in france, you can germany, they have half the capital requirements as u.s. banks. that gets into the competitive question. people have to look at it seriously and relative to what we want to do. we want the strongest banking industry. our multiples are half or less than s&p multiples. investors say if demands do not stop, were not sure we can invest. every hundred basis points of capital is 150 billion less loans bank of america can do. lizzy: bank of america ceo, brian moynihan, speaking exclusively to david westin.

we will have more from key u.s. economic policymakers later today on "wall street week," continuing its live coverage from aspen. coming up, the different tales of two tech giants. the latest on amazon and apple's quarterly earnings, just ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪

lizzy: good morning. this is "bloomberg daybreak:

europe." i'm lizzy burden in london. china leads asian stocks higher, the slide in treasuries pauses. focus shifts to the u.s. jobs report. chinese assets get a boost on expectations of more funding for the private property sector. the pboc vows to step up support for the world's second-largest economy. amazon shares soar after hours after its outlook topped estimates on strong e-commerce sales, but apple is down on lower than anticipated iphone sales. happy friday and welcome to the end of the week. you have made it but the bond market is on the ropes ahead of the u.s. jobs report, set to be the worst week for the treasury since october when the fed hiked twice by 75 basis points. this is as investors continue to digest the news of the upcoming u.s. debt issuance, and the

question is, who will swallow the extra supply? if you cannot rely on foreign demand, where do you turn? that extra paper has to go somewhere. u.s. equity futures pointing higher helped by amazon posting robust results. oil is moving toward another weekly gain, that will make six in a row after saudi and russia tease deeper cuts, not helpful for those looking for yield relief. i want to get back to tech earnings. i mentioned amazon. we have made cap u.s. tech companies, amazon and apple reporting quarterly earnings. amazon surging in late trading while the iphone maker dipped. here is what the amazon ceo had to say on the growth potential. >> i think the business has grown to be large already and i still think we only have a fraction of the features we need.

i do not think we are close to being done growing. that is a strong area of focus. lizzy: i'm pleased to say that to break down these earnings for us, we have our tech reporter. what has led to amazon shares trading higher? >> yes, essentially amazon has had a strong quarter when it comes to the fear that a lot of tech companies have not been able to get out of this slump. amazon has managed to. they are still growing in the aws web services. it is also interesting to see they have been talking, as we have seen with microsoft, about how ai will be used in their services. he did not want to put a date on windows applications would be built out with artificial

intelligence. another key point that the market has welcomed is that the company is committing to being tighter on cuts. they have committed to $50 billion in investments, and that seems that a huge number but it is $9 billion less than 2022. and this freeze on corporate hiring is a critical part of their cost-effectiveness. finally on the online sales, they grew 4% year on year but the interesting point that feeds into apple and consumer sentiment is that they saw that people were trading down and consumers were deciding to go for cheaper options. lizzy: extending that theme, we have had broader slump in smart phone sales, how is that affecting apple? >> apple has had its longest slump in sales in 20 years, a significant drop for a company

that has had a laser focus on managing to bring in new markets and new consumers. the iphone is a critical part of that. they were about to bring out a new iphone, and there is a fear in the market they will not continue maintaining that huge valuation if they are not able to deliver on sales. they say even in this quarter they think sales will be muted. even when they bring out new products, if sales are not driving it, it is a risk to the $3 trillion valuation that they have. lizzy: india and china look like bright spots for apple. >> yes, this is something i find interesting, especially because if all the narratives around china and fears of the slower reopening from covid, but actually amazon -- sorry, apple considers china and india rio

growth drivers for the companies. this is a broader and important story to tell in the markets because these are countries that are building iphones, but that was the relationship to apple, the supplier and builders of iphones, and now apple has focused on these markets as consumers for their products as well as the people who produce them. >> thank you for digging into those numbers for us. it is that time, the u.s. monthly jobs report. economists estimate the u.s. added 200,000 jobs in july, about the same as in june but the unemployment rate would have held in its lowest level in decades. what are the numbers going to tell us about the labor market and the fed's path forward? >> as you pointed out, there is

the expectation of continued resilience in the labor market. the street is expecting nonfarm payroll numbers to come in above what we saw in june. again a bit of stickiness. wage growth will be interesting to watch. expectations are for moderation and wage growth. maybe that tells us what we should expect as we get further out looking at the fed meeting. the fed is not meeting for another month, not until september until they meet again. ultimately there will be more data to look out for. expectations are very high that the fed will hold at that meeting in september. we have to see what some statistics will tell us about the economy going forward but continued resilience for sure. lizzy: as we well know, they are

data dependent. staying with central banks and going to china, we had the meeting between the pboc governor and property execs, boosting funding support for the private sector. another show of public support. is any of it significant? jill: at this point, a lot of what we see out of china is reiterations or vague follow-through on promises made over the last couple weeks. it was not even two weeks ago the politburo gave a progrowth message saying they needed to get the economy on track, things are losing steam. you are seeing today and last night, literally every day this week some level of follow-through, some agency meeting to say we will bolster confidence or make these measures work. in terms of how the pboc, this

meeting with developers was encouraging but not unprecedented. ultimately what markets are looking for may be something that feels more substantial that will move the needle. we have not gotten anything big in terms of mortgage restrictions being relaxed in large cities, something that might feel like a substantial message. this is part of china's strategy. they have signaled in so many cases over the past several weeks and months that they want stimulus this year to be targeted and limited. they cannot rollout anything massive. you are seeing that translate through these meetings last night and today. lizzy: thank you, waiting patiently for the china bazooka. donald trump has pleaded not guilty to charges of conspiring to obstruct the 2020

presidential election. kailey leinz has the details from washington. kailey: former president donald trump was arraigned for a third time on a rainy thursday afternoon here in washington, d.c. where he pleaded not guilty to four criminal counts related to overturning the 2020 election . those include conspiracy to defraud the u.s., and conspiracy against rights. at this hearing the magistrate judge set the date for the next hearing, the first before the judge will actually oversee this case, judge tanya chutkan. that is set for august 28. the former president will not be required to hear but that is when the judge will set the date for the trial in this case. as for what this means for the former president and his ongoing campaign to seek the white house in 2024, after he left this courthouse, he briefly spoke with reporters to say this is persecution of a political opponent.

as we have seen in its prior indictments, the charges brought against him could boost him in the polls. when he was indicted in new york , his poll numbers went up and he raised millions of dollars. he has seen his polling go up since he was indicted in florida related to the classified documents case. what will see -- we will see how this affects his campaign, and he has mounting legal bills as he fights these challenges. in washington, kailey leinz, bloomberg news. lizzy: let's look at things markets are watching out for, at 7:00 a.m. german factory orders for june, u.k. construction pmi for july will be released at 9:30, and in the early afternoon, -- then over to the u.s. later we will get the latest nonfarm

payrolls at 1:30 u.k. time. coming up, we will look closer at the with the bank of england's quarter-point rate rise means in the fight against inflation. that is next. this is bloomberg. ♪

it's an amazing thing when you show generosity of spirit to someone. and you want people to be saved and to have a better life, then you don't stop. the idea that we have saved five million people's lives, it's overwhelming. it's everything. >> policy is really doing the work, and we will have to see policy stay restrictive. it will have to remain restrictive to have this effect of bringing inflation down. lizzy: bank of england governor, andrew bailey, speaking after the quarter-point rate rise from the central bank. let's get more. thank you for being with me. if the bank of england is still hiking, is it fair to say it does not believe its own

forecasts? >> yes, that is a good question. i would say it depends on the forecast we are talking about. the boe produces the moto forecast which is what they think is the most likely me for inflation, and mean forecast which captures the wider range of possibilities for inflation. if you look at the mean forecast, that told them to keep hiking. a different question would be, is it reasonable to trust the mean forecast rather than the moto forecast? i would have to say, yes, it is reasonable because the scale of surprises has been big. that is a reasonable approach for now. lizzy: you have traders split on the bank of england's next move, and the governor reticent to answer francine lacqua's

question over when we can expect rate cuts. how do you interpret the future path for rates after yesterday's meeting? >> yesterday's meeting did not give us a lot of clarity. the only thing we got from the bank of england is that it was happy with rates averaging around 5.5% over the medium term. how you get there is a different question. if you look at the mean forecast in the market rate, we are right to stay the same, no more hikes. 5.25 for the next three years. they actually deliver the same level of inflation medium-term, close to 2%. that says you can stay where you are for longer or continue to hike and include some cuts. we think the bank of england will favor one approach where it

continues to hike in the short-term. that is essentially because of the data. it will be hard deposit when you have inflation running at 7%. we think the september hike is a done deal. you will have two rounds of data for jobs in cpi, and they will show a decrease in pressures, but you will have headline inflation at 7%, services running above 7%. that hike is guaranteed. more of an open question is a november hike. we think they will do it because of the data but there is something else to consider, the shifting narrative. the boe would be left alone for a long time hiking, and that might make them reconsider. lizzy: there was one member who wanted to hold rates at this meeting. you did say it would be a

three-way split, and it was. i wonder briefly, do you reckon we will get more of this division going award as we end the hiking cycle? >> yes, i think the divisions reflect uncertainties about the inflation forecast and where we are. that is reasonable. there will be less of a case for some members to go 50 basis points because it seemed we are on a downward trend with inflation. we will continue to favor no change but maybe the hawks will be pressing for another 50 basis points, slightly more conversions. lizzy: thank you. credit suisse was an icon of the swiss economy, and its collapse was a huge blow to the national psyche. many thought acute trigger a profound change to the way the country works.

swiss banking is back to making money, and there are a few signs anything will change. >> the demise of credit suisse ripped through financial markets and shook the nation of switzerland to its core. >> it was no wonder possible to restore the necessary confidence. the stabilizing solution was absolutely necessary. this solution is a takeover of credit suisse by ubs. >> ubs tencent downsize credit suisse's investment banking business and align it with our conservative a risk culture. >> despite disappointment, months later silence has fallen over the alps. is the swiss serenity a sign of stability or complacency? women only got the right to vote in 1971. with a closed door government brokered deal backstopped by

taxpayers, many hoped the rescue by ubs would be a catalyst for change. perhaps federal elections can offer an opportunity for debate many feel that moment may have passed. another concern, switzerland is a small country but it's baking sector underwrites risk across the world. ubs total assets stand at 198% of swiss gdp. on the surface all is calm, unemployment unmoved, inflation the envy of every central bank, and the money still flows. if crisis does arise, do switzerland have the firepower to meet it? lizzy: coming up, feel been airlines partners with the nigerian government to launch a state carrier. we hear from the ceo of africa's biggest airline, next. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> we are establishing the nigerian air in partnership with the nigerian government and institutional investors in nigeria. and the prime objective is to give nigeria a hub flight carrier. nigeria is a big country, big economy, but unfortunately it does not have a strong airline. this airline will have 49% share but at the same time it will have a management contract. we will manage this aircraft to be successful. lizzy: that was that if you know

pin ceo talking about the expansion plans. he spoke exclusively to bloomberg. happy friday. why did ethiopia decide to invest in an airline in nigeria when previous attempt failed? >> it is hard to maintain that title of africa's dominant carrier if you are not flying to nigeria. we heard from the ceo that nigeria is the most populous country in africa. this is part of ethiopia strategy to maintain that title, especially when you look at the major carriers pushing their way into africa. i'm talking about turkish airlines, qatar which is partnered with rwanda air. for ethiopia, this is part of their strategy and expansion plans. what we talked about is what

exactly this will look like. in the past nigeria has failed to have their own carrier. as you heard from him, 49% of the airline will be managed and owned by ethiopia. 51% will be nigerian institutional investors. 5% will be owned by the nigerian government. this is significant especially when we see these carriers competing for this part of the world. he did say the plan is for launching this airline in october later this year. very significant for the airline industry. lizzy: ethiopian airlines is also hoping to become a major competitor in the gulf area. what is its current market share there? >> at this point in time, ethiopia is the dominant carrier in africa, but we have seen qatar airways partner with

rwanda air. a number of these airlines have bigger fleets than ethiopian airlines. the strategy is not just opening more hubs but doubling their fleet. they have about 146 planes and are hoping by 2035 to get that to 270, which would surpass the other big airlines. they are planning to open more hubs not just in nigeria but the democratic republic of congo. it is a two prong expansion plan they are hoping can maintain passengers and talent to stay within the continent. lizzy: really great to bring us that interview. thank you very much. coming up, we speak to commerzbank, ceo after the lender raised its full year expected net interest income. that is that -- that is at

7:10. up next, you will be joined by dani burger and mark cudmore for "markets today." stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪

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♪ >> this is bloomberg markets today. i'm dani burger. mark cudmore