tv Bloomberg Markets Bloomberg August 4, 2023 1:30pm-2:00pm EDT
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>> welcome to bloomberg markets. >> were going to get a quick check on the markets because we have s&p inching high year. it is a down week with s&p 500. for only up about 5/10 of 1%. in the nasdaq were also up eight has one person. i want to talk about the 10 year yield because the movement is there. a stunning 10 basis point drop.
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same for the 30 year yield. you're watching it cool a bit about six basis points but we are still more than 20 basis points up on the week, a stunning move at the long end of the curve. i want to look at earnings because i want to take a look at apple. taking a beating in the market with more than a 3% decline, the worst drop we have seen since january. i want to talk about amazon because that is such a positive story with not only revenue increase, a slowdown in spending for the e-commerce giant, pushing the shares of more than 10%, the biggest jump we have seen since november of last year. coinbase almost flat on the day. lay down .2% -- it is only down .2% . you do have coinbase with us says, just underwear wall street had expected and uncertainty
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about the stock after a rally this year. icahn enterprises has been a big story on wall street. down the most it has been in history after slashing the dividend by havlf. >> a helpful breakdown of the micro stories on the macro day when it is in north america we have been looking at the job report in u.s. and canada were we saw job losses in july 6400 jobs lost, the expectation was a gain of 25,000. the unpleasant rate high year for a third straight month -- the unemployment rate higher for a third straight month. people wondering about the impact on the economy. what the inflation story looks like. if -- you have wage growth that is accelerating and i think on both sides of the board we have seen mixed job reaction. >> and talking about the
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reaction is blackrock rick rieder who discussed the report earlier today. >> you have an economy slowing somewhat it. you look at the hours work and a three month average versus six-month versus twelve-month coming down a bit create temporary hiring coming off. it is an economy that is in good shape but it is moderating. i am in no landing camp read i think the economy is in good shape but it is indicative of an economy that is slowing down. same in the earnings this quarter. >> let's get more perspective. the -- if you're going to characterize the economy right now how would you put it? >> i would say soft landing optimism is overdone. i think today the job report in u.s. is a wake-up call.
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i see today's job report as and -- turning into a softer side, a lot of attention is on the higher than expected wage growth. we look at the reduce hours worked also means the total weekly our earnings only growing by 0.1%. while people are paying more for our, they are working this. usually that is really signs of downturn. it is only usually first or second quarter a recession started that mass layoffs happen. i saw what happened to canada. i think the rest of the economy in the world is heading towards the direction canada is heading. i do not see u.s. being decoupled from the rest of the world in terms of slowing growth. sonali: especially giving the wage growth. what do you think it means for potential future rate hikes? anna: not much because the fed really cares about the
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employment cost index which was released last week. that showed a sharp moderation in wages, especially private sector wages. it is coming down from high force to not be .9 percent. i think the fed -- is coming down from high fours to announce 3.9%. sonali: we're going to talk markets with peter kraus, chairman and ceo of aperture investors. thank you for joining us because i bring this up every time, you were so early to target inflation. you have a lot of warnings out there. larry summers saying you can see a lot of lectionary spike. do you think the fed job is anywhere near over a given the uncertainties we have seen in wage growth, oil markets or anywhere else that can see
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further price increases? peter: you're nice to say those kind words, thank you for that. i think part of the problem of talking about this period of time is yet to talk about the time horizons that we are focused on. you have to talk about soft landings for the next three months, it could be a soft landing. but if you talk with the next six months to nine months, the fed actually has been aggressively raising rates to slow the economy down. we know the economy is going to slow. what we do not know is what the long-term inflation rate is going to be. we know it will take the short rate that is come down but it is not to wear the fed wants it to be. the implication in the treasury market is the long-term inflation rate is 2.2% and that is risky. i think that long-term inflation rate is too low. sonali: talk more about the long-term rate agreed that tremendous move we have seen in 30 year more than 20 basis points in one week. what does that tell you about the direction of travel?
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peter: there are two things going on there. there is a significant amount of borrowing that is going to take place by u.s. treasury and this from a technical point of view affecting long-term rates. the long-term expectation question is also at play. i think that the market is -- investors will come to the point of view that 2.2% is probably goldilocks and it is more like 2.5% to 3%. you add 50 basis points even 100 basis points onto the very low long-term rate, that is a big change. i think the market has not taken that into consideration. >> how do you think about the growth conversation, economic conversation at a time when we are also having a conversation around new technology? disruptive technology? even within the stock market it is no secret the lion share of the gains have come from companies that are betting on ai future. peter: it is a good question.
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what is happening is the ai effect which is replicated in many different companies, people are saying well that is a growth trend i could bet on. it is a growth trend get behind because that is extraterrestrial to what else is going on in economy. it is why you see the value for ai companies accelerated as they are because growth elsewhere is uncertain. the money is concentrated on buying that ai effect. that is not going to be long-lasting. it is not it will go down or blow up but acceleration of the growth will be a lot slower, when the economy reaches a slower speed and we could to either a modest recession or realize growth is going into zero or negative year-over-year or month over month, numbers then investors will start looking at 2425 sam at the bottom.
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-- 2024 and 2025 and say i am at the bottom. they're reaching the point at which the future quarters look like there is growth. even though we may be in bestowing period where the fed is taking enormous amounts of liquidity out of the market, those consumer companies actually look at longer-term part of you very attractive. -- point of view very attractive. i think ai is where sustainable growth looks but that is going to eke out and other companies as investors look throughout the market. >> what about what might be not obvious to us today, but perhaps beneath the surface whether it is in the credit marketm it was not that long ago that we were worried about turmoil in the banking sector. i wonder how closely you will watch that part of the equation
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depending on where the economy goes from here. peter: the credit complex is in a challenging position. nominal growth or inflation has helped companies increase their prices and grow the revenues and offset some of the increase in interest rates. but they have not really met be refinancing demands their existing capitalization structure requires. when they hit those refinancing demands, we are going to see some cohort of companies not be able to refinance. we are already seeing some effects of that now. the credit spreads widen two months ago and now they have come back in. there probably a little too tight for my point of view. on top of that do not forget the real estate cycle. while banks may not -- may not have another svb or that kind of crisis, you will have continued
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pressure on bank balance sheets. the fed and otc being tougher in capital requirements. lending will slow down. he was the effect of losses when bank balance sheets from commercial estate. you are already in commercial real estate hit the wall in refinancing. sonali: you mentioned the -- dressing in investment grade credit. what do you think investors will get burned? where are they being too sanguine given distress as you are highlighting? peter: the credit market does not usually react to these things until there is an event. it is the unfortunate aspect of it. it is possible that investors will start to look at tightness of double v sprays and say i'm not getting compensated and stuck to so that. but -- and start to so that by do you see an event where it is big enough for people to notice them the spreads probably
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do not move. >> great perspective. thank you for your time. peter kraus joining us as we watch the road ahead. coming up, tanker outlets moving higher today. here's a company that benefits from consumer spending and b-shares moving higher? stronger results. we are going to talk about the help of the consumer and the real estate market with its ceo next. this is a bloomberg. ♪
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tanger moving higher. known for its outlet store properties reporting will receive results. consumer still shopping. retailers are also showing willingness the pipe higher rents and have benefits a business like this one. sonali: it sure does. we have ceo oftanger outlets with us now. we take a look at what is happening in rent and consumer behavior, the question i have is can you keep it up are there more cracks under the surface in risk to out look ahead? stephen: we are optimistic about our outlook. look at the progress we have made coming out of covid, we felt as though our real estate was undervalued so we put a team together and build a strategy and that strategy was execute the growth and revenue growth is coming from pushing rents.
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when images we use to how much do retailers pay a percentage of their sales and we set a goal of that ocr to historic high levels which are back in the 10% range. we started low rates and we are up to 9 -- we started at low eights and we are at high nine now. sonali: almost a quarter of the 10 are new to the portfolio. are there different types of tenants your bringing on? stephen: we are a power shopping sprees a lot of selling direct to the consumer. now we are finding customer coming to shop with us are looking for more ground experience. better amenities, food and beverage, better entertainment opportunity when they get to our shopping center. the leasing we are doing caters to just that to get into
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customer to come with us, stay longer when they do and spend more money when they are there. jon: we should point out that is not just which retailers you are working with. i even heard of your conference call talking about the electric vehicle revolution. the whole design of all people are getting to your properties is a consideration as well. stephen: yes. if a feature of retail. in our vision statement is a company is to use the customer experience. the customers information to inform the future of shopping. we took a look at would have been coming from covid, the customer wants to maybe buy online and pick up in store or want a curbside pickup. the customer was a better food and beverage. that is how we have designed the center. were going to open up a new shopping center in october in nashville. 290,000 square feet. 90 days until opening, over 95% lease. 15 of those retailers is he that
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shopping center will be brand-new to outlet or new to us and more importantly about 20,000 square feet in the mix will just be food and beverage. we're listening to the customers and breaking them exactly what they want and we know they will pay us back with many visits and a lot of sales. jon: even in canada yet a long time partner and we spoke to that ceo and they feel their business mix has been relatively strong. i go back to the first commons, you got expansion story, what is may be some are missing, at least about some parts of commercial real estate market? stephen: what is in favor especially in inflationary times is value. we are a value shop experience every day. you can get your favorite brands, national, international, fashion, accessories, apparel,
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athletic fitness every single day shop in lifestyle environment. these are the brands have their own store. you're not going to invite curated assortment for multibrand retailer. you're going to a story and being able to shop for the entire lifestyle of their assortment. brand fans that love a particular brand will go to that store and the entire wall-to-wall is that brand, that product and most important lyon cell every day. that is what is great about this outlet channel. let's go back to the 95% lease on nashville, that is almost unheard of for a new center. the reason why it is happening is because these brands understand how important it is to have at least a part of their experience. sonali: i want you to take a listen to a conversation we had yesterday with the ceo of audrey's management. i think it is good but negative. >> we are bearish on real
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estate. we do not think they adjusted and corrected for the new interest rate environment. you have to look at the derivatives over the state. construction, suppliers to it. sonali: i know you are bucking the trend but u. he also -- you also have decades in the retail industry. what are the things you think the industry might fall prey to? what are the pitfalls you're trying to avoid? stephen: listening to his narrative, real estate is a big category. we are in retail real estate and right now retail real estate is a darling. you look at the other brandm landlords, developers in our sector, we all seem to be performing. i'm sure there are categories of real estate there are not
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perform as well as we are so if we stick in the retail business and in the outlet business, specifics are showing retailers are there and they are signing up for longer leases. we announced today are rents's price and it is an indication of what a retailer is willing to pay in a case of renewal roles to stay in the store they already had. in the case of re-tenanting, it is a new rent they are willing to pay. we're getting 30% increase from the prior tenant to the new tenant created that is the clearest indication to me. when retailers renews they are saying i been in that shopping center and i want to stay there and i'm willing to pay more to be there. in these instances where the number we reported to date was 12% increase, retailers are willing to renew and pay 12% more than they were paying previously to stay there. jon: the market responding to
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that as we have seen with their stock price today. thank you for your time. stephen yalof ceo oftanger outlets joining us. the situation in the cryptocurrency trading world's been getting attention recently. coinbase asking a quarter toss is sued following the ruling a few weeks ago on a busy day for that company. more details coming up. this is bloomberg. ♪
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dismiss a lawsuit against it pointing to a recent decision by another judge who ruled the srp was high-security when it was sold on exchanges. last night i spoke to coinbase cfl about the relations impact on the business. >> there was a -- we are seeing the impact on some of the longer tale of crypto as says because of the regulatory headwinds. however will work do that and i think we are excited to share with the markets tomorrow our solution to this on the case of the sec has brought against us and share why we think these assets can be traded. sonali: i would like to tell you the market is not not if about the uncertainty but even with the volatility it is up this year. jon: the industry looking for clarity. that seems to be the message
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from coinbase. we will keep watching. this is bloomberg. ♪ y. avalarahhhhhh what if tax rates change? ahhhhhh filing sales tax returns? ahhhhhh business license guidance? ahhhhhh -cross-border sales? -ahhhhhh -item classification? -ahhhhhh does it connect with acc...? ahhhhhh ahhhhhh ahhhhhh 76% of 23andme health customers surveyed reported taking healthier actions. ahhhhhh because they know health isn't just a future state. health happens now. start your dna-powered health journey today with personalized insights from 23andme. i don't want you to move. i'm gonna miss you so much. you realize we'll have internet waiting for us at the new place, right?
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it's overwhelming. it's everything. >> a big job support and a big reversal in treasury yields, prompting a big rally in equities. i am romaine bostick. >> i am katie greifeld kicking you off to the closing bell in the u.s. equity market about two hours to go, looking at a rally. s&p 500 index had been lower for three days, not the case on this friday. up by .4%. after the jobs report, headline figure coming in below expectations. that seems to be sparking a relief rally in stocks and in bonds. big tech rallying, the nasdaq 100 up .6%
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