dani: good morning. this as "bloomberg daybreak europe." i am dani burger and london.

china's exports fall for a third straight month because of slower global demand while imports plunge in a new blow to the nations economic recovery. moody's lowers credit ratings for 10 regional u.s. banks and says it may downgrade major lenders. plus, the bears are not hitting up yet. marko kolanovic is still avoiding stocks while mike wilson says it is to risk -- too risky to look past a downturn. it is not sending people into 30 year yield. the selloff has continued. video -- 30 year yield climbed seven basis points. germany saw the same thing happen. we are avoiding duration but will we come back into it? goldman sachs says it is overdone and based off information that we already know. it is based off of credit ratings. we knew the deficit situation in the u.s. and we knew the auction would be bigger than the u.s. and will come this week. the 30 year option happens on thursday but even so, yields are moving higher.

the bond selloff is easy a little this morning. even so, the yield curve is the closest to zero as may. we have seen steepening and we saw some last week and some yesterday too. switching it up and looking at equities, we are going to get into the story and just a bit but moody's, the credit rating agencies are going after it these days. moody's downgraded u.s. regional banks. if you look at the screen, you can see the tech -- take down in reaction to moody's downgrading american banks. if you look to russell 2000 futures it is more stark. they live in the index. we saw the s&p climb yesterday. the sentiment has waned. part of that might be the weaker chinese data. let's check in with asian markets and get over to our reporter in hong kong, charlotte. walk us through the data and the market reaction. >> yes, it is a pretty

lackluster morning trading session in china. in asia china's july data came in weaker than expect to. starting with exports we look at the overseas shipments that contracted 14.5% on year as global demand remains week. how significant is that drop? is the worst decline since february 2020. if we break it down by country, shipments and the u.s. down 23% while exports to other key asian markets from south korea to japan took a big hit. for imports, we are looking at china's imports which contracted 12.4% in dollar terms on year and that is way below the estimates of 5.6%. while the falling commodity percent -- prices are reflecting more of the country's weak domestic demand spared asia was among the most hit markets from china's falling demand.

we are looking at japan, korea, taiwan and the imports from there dropped double digits. for market reactions, there's not too much big reactions. the results of the china stock market had a preopening this morning and we are seeing the hang seng index opening which felt to percent. the csi 300 index fell 0.7%. actually, it was losses after the results. we saw the offshore yen hold the morning loss of 0.3% at seven 2214 per dollar. dani: thank you for that. bloomberg's charlotte yang there. let's get to our top stories. valerie tytel joins us. charlotte was laying out the data. trade is worsening for asia but as she pointed out, markets are not reacting hugely to this. is this just an another

incremental step in the story of a poor china economy or does it show something to print? valerie: maybe another incremental step. we saw confirmation of this south korea's trade data with china that was out a few weeks ago showing plummeting volumes when it comes to south korea's exports. for me, i want to tie this into the treasury market. if we have a china who is less reliant on the export driven growth model, that means possibly the biggest buyer of treasuries, china, might need less demand for them if they are doing less trade in dollars, trading less with the u.s., if exports continue to dwindle. locally, the chinese government if they continue to want to focus more on internal demand, internal consumption instead of the export driven growth model, there might be a problem when it comes to foreign demand for treasuries. we know that has been focus of late now that the u.s. is increasing their options sizes.

they need the foreign demand. it could put a question on where the biggest buyer of treasuries is headed in the next few years. dani: if japanese investors had back home. the market is not cooperating with that narrative. it might be buying some of yesterday's dip. speaking of markets selling off, the bears really refused to given. mike wilson had a call out yesterday which we talked about on the program. basically, just saying that the fiscal story might run out of room and soon growth will reverse. he was on with the surveillance team yesterday take a listen to what he had to say. >> they are doing 8% budget deficit spending when you have 3.5% on the claimant. that is really unprecedented. the boom bust thesis maybe correct in the market is looking for to the other side. that is a risky proposition given what valuations are. it was a great idea to buy stocks last fall. we traded it and did not stick

with it long enough, ok, but at this stage, you need to be very selective. dani: he has kind of tone down the extremists of his bears quality because he had a male couple -- mea culpa saying i got the strong. marko kolanovic wrote in his note overnight saying we disagree with the markets citation that a soft landing is the most likely outcome. the irony though, valerie, is there u.s. chief economist at jpmorgan chase said the a soft landing is a likely outcome. valerie: on friday we had the jp morgan chief economist finally ditching their u.s. recession calls. we are having equity strategists a bit more bearish on the outcome, but economists keep upgrading their assessment of the u.s. economy. just last week, bank of america and j.p. morgan both ditched their call for a u.s. recession later this quarter and upgrades

to gdp were substantial. jp morgan's reason for the upgrade was productivity gains based on our artificial intelligence. bank of america wanted to cite the ballooning deficit which ties into what mike wilson is saying. he is surprised with equity strength and blames it mostly on the largest deficit we have got in the biden spending we have had recently. how is that going to change? we are heading into an election cycle and is really hard to see the fiscal boost pulling back anytime soon. that is why i raised an eyebrow to mike wilson's forecast. dani: it is fascinating that we are seeing the economists capitulate first. the contrarian economists are the ones saying we don't see a recession anymore and strategists have yet to catch up. unclear when that will change. one thing that is not helping sentiment this morning is the top story, again, the credit rated -- rating agencies out for blood. it was pitch last week on the

u.s. deficit in late yesterday, it was moody's lowering credit rating on 10 different small and midsized u.s. banks. this is not the big lenders but basically citing real estate and other pressures in industry. again, it is having a market white impact. valerie: they cited various reasons why they chose to downgrade or reassess this 27 u.s. banks but they had a key theme through them. first, it was higher funding costs which we know have eroded off and ability. we saw that in the earnings. a lot of the regionals showed a net interest margin compression, meaning they are paying more for deposit. they are less profitable. higher funding costs top-of-the-line from moody's. the second is regulatory capital weakness. we know that the u.s. regulatory framework is now including a lot of the smaller banks instead of just targeting the largest too big to fail, casting a wider

net. moody's points out that risk that he talked about. the small and midsize banks hold a huge amount of the commercial real estate lending in the u.s.. small banks in the u.s. hold 80% of the cre lending. if moody wants to forecast this recession, which they do think the u.s. is going to entry recession, those cre loans might be a big weakness of the small banks. dani: yeah, again, we are going to have to look out the market reaction when things open up or at least there premarket trade for the banking etf. excuse me while i have a frog in my throat. let me get to things we're going to be watching out for today. at 7:00 a.m. u.k. time we will get softbank results. interesting to see how they feel about investment and whether they are driving more into the sea. at 11:00 a.m. u.k. time, the nfib small biz optimism survey.

last time we saw u.s. small businesses rising in prices. that fell to the lowest level in two years. will that disinflationary force continue? finally, at 1:15 p.m. u.k. time, the philly fed's parker -- patrick harker is going to be speaking at an event hosted by the philly business journal. harker is squarely in a dovish camp. valerie: also the market has a lot of attention on options coming out of the u.s.. we get the first one of this slate of auctions at 6:00 p.m. london time. it comes as we have $103 billion worth of treasury issuance in just three days. we get threes, tens, and 30's. it will be a test of duration appetite and a test of this treasury demand appetite. normally, markets don't focus that much on these treasury auctions but have come under so much spotlight after the pitch downgrade last week and the treasury announcing a larger

auction size for the first time in 2.5 years. the big test of demand, especially when markets are this volatile is going to be a key thing for the direction for markets going forward. dani: we will get duration on wednesday and thursday. wednesday is the 10 year and that is bloomberg's valerie tytel. you can get a round up of the stories to get your day going in daybreak. terminal subscribers can had to dayb on your terminal. coming up, we will talk more about story and overall impact the market. it is assessing 27 u.s. banks and cut the rating for 10. more on that next. this is bloomberg. ♪

dani: it is your tuesday addition of "bloomberg daybreak europe." moody's has lowered its credit rating for tenant small and midsize u.s. banks. it cited mounting lending costs and risks tied to commercial real estate loans. what is the impact on overall market? let's get to mark cranfield. you have an excellent post on this on dollar bond spreads affected by moody's bank cut. what has is done to the american corporate bond market? mark: it is going to be a

painful day. a painful period actually. we're talking about this last week while you're putting your feet up and ever since the pitch downgrade of the sovereign rating. these things come in waves. when you get one major downgrade, you tend to get several to follow and this is probably just one and there will be quite a few more. ratings will be under scrutiny across the world once you have a big change like the united states. although moody's has only moved a handful of banks first, there are several other under threat. you have spreads and relatively tight levels around the world because of a decent run in terms of the risk mood this year. so, it comes up from that point of view, the worst possible time for investors. this will be very unwelcome because you have a lot of issuance still to be done in the corporate sector between now and year end and a massive treasury auction scheduled that valerie was talking about. it is a double whammy for people this week.

once you start the ball rolling on people having to reprice secondary and new issues as well because a new issues once you have got them in the pipeline, they are hard to turn around. everyone has to rethink where is fair value for corporate bonds that just in the u.s. but europe and asia as well. it is going to be a headache or a lot of people. we are seeing a lot of risk aversion today, one of the main factors that markets got skittish and also because of china. this was a big intruding factor to why markets are on the defensive as we pass the ball over to you guys in europe. dani: wasn't just putting my feet up yesterday. i happen to be anchoring the hour after this in the next hour and the next hour in the next hour. i wasn't relaxing. i was listening. the second thing is there was an interesting dynamic that emerged last week when the credit downgrade happened. it was this kind of unity of americans basically saying we don't care about fitch. who cares about the downgrade?

it is information we already knew and we already knew about the deficits. is this moody's downgrade something different? does it take a different importance not just because of the content but the specific market it is looking at and as you mentioned, the timing? mark: corporate downgrades are always worse than sovereign congress because people have nowhere to go. a sovereign downgrade of the united states, you can say does not matter too much because where else does the money come? u.s. treasuries are the biggest and most important market. with -- there's limited things we can do but you don't have to be in the corporate bond market and you don't have to be in every tear of the corporate bond market. you can always -- of course the most likely thing to happen initially is the spreads widen between treasury and corporate bonds because it makes treasuries look even safer than they were before moody's. now the other agencies have to

reconsider where they are on the landscape and it won't just be the bank space. it will be the major issuers outside of that as well. other large industrial leaders that you seats in the united states. it will spread to europe as well. the snowball effect could go on for quite some time. as you are staying there, i know you were very busy yesterday. some things may have escaped your attention. dani: [laughter] thanks, mark. i appreciate the wide runway you have given me. elsewhere in this market, the dollar has been strengthening against the yuan. it was happening before the poor china trade data. it seems to have slightly. some gains of the dollar data had. it seems like this fix is not what the market was expecting, revising an earlier fix which may be allowing the dollar to strengthen. what do you make of that? mark: there was quite a bit of confusion this morning because initially, the fix came out where we expected it which was

below 7.15. it looked like the message was pretty clear, don't mess around with the yuan. a couple minutes later, it was revised in above 7.15 which is a completely different signal because for more than a month the central bank china has been stirring people into the view that they want dollar you want in a very tight range. suddenly today they are giving it more headroom probably because dollar-yen is much higher-than-expected as well. that was a real shock to everybody and of course they came ahead of the trading data and the important cpi report from china coming out later in the week as well. you put all those things together and people are worried about the risk of deflation and china as opposed to inflation in the rest of the world. it looks as though there is some kind of message here that they don't mind the yuan being lit we -- a bit weaker after telling people they wanted to be stable. people are trying to get their head around what it means but certainly it caused a jump in the market and strength for the

u.s. dollar and added to the general risk aversion tone that we saw because of the moody's report. dani: mark, thank you for that. i will be on holiday starting next week so after that you can make fun of me for being out of the loop. i will give you permission to do it then. bloomberg mliv strategist mark cranfield. thank you as always. coming up, cathie wood says the u.s. sec may improve multiple spots bitcoin etf's at the same time reversing her earlier view. we have seen a lot of filings for it. we will have more from that interview next. this is bloomberg. ♪

dani: cathie wood says of the u.s. securities and exchange commission may approve multiple spot-bitcoin etf's at the same time. that follows a slew of filings for them with questions being raised, did they know something we don't? it reverses an earlier view from would that it would be the first in line to get potential approval for the long-awaited product. the ark investment management ceo and cio will bloomberg's katie greifeld. cathie: i think the sec if it is going to approve a bitcoin etf will approve more than one at once.

so, then, again because most of these essentially will be the same and it will come down to marketing, communicating the message. we have been putting out our bitcoin monthly for the last year. we are now starting a bitcoin brainstorming session. our first when we launched last thursday. so, we are trying to get the word out there that our research is deep, and we have been doing it since 2015 when we gained our first exposure to gbtc. we were the first public asset manager to gain exposure to bitcoin at all in 2015. katie: that is where i want to go, the grayscale bitcoin trust known by gbtc. if you look at ark w, your next generation etf, it is the

third-largest holding. if we are in a situation where the sec does give its blessing for a spot-bitcoin etf, would you plan to sell out of gbtc and by a physically backed fund? cathie: i cannot talk about we will -- what we would and would not do. in fact, our compliance team is giving us marching orders not talk very much about this filing and its aftermath at all. so, just the fact that we filed with our partner 21 shares is as far as i can go. katie: fair enough. i was expecting something along those lines. i am curious to get your take on the regulatory temperature right now because in addition to this rush of spot-bitcoin etf filings we have seen, there has also been sort of a race that is unfolding for an ether futures etf. there has been a ton of filings to that effect and not specific

to those funds but dss -- do you sense the mood music around the sec and what her appetite to allow these products to launch has changed in the last several months? cathie: well, i think that the two other branches of government, the judicial branch and legislative branch, are giving the sec pause because the sec is losing cases in court. dani: ark invest ceo and cio cathie wood which comes up the back of a whole lot of filings per bitcoin etf's. cap has been optimistic that it would happen and now she is talking about others getting approval which she hopes is alongside hers. i want to show you a chart that caught my eye because we are trying to discern the state of the american consumer. this is part of the reason the economy has held up. we have seen a surge in non-revolving credit, things like loans for student tuition,

vehicle purchases. remember a lot of things have changed when it comes to forgiveness student loans. the other thing to look at his revolving credit which has dropped. it is the white line on the bottom which includes credit cards. is that the consumer finally starting to pull back? coming up we will talk about china exports falling further straight month. slower mobile demand and imports plunged. the breakdown of the numbers next. this is bloomberg. ♪

dani: good morning. this is "bloomberg daybreak europe." i am dani burger in london.

these are the stories that set your agenda. hasn't been the case. okay. we are buying duration today. we are seeing an overall bond market rally, but perhaps that's just a breather. that's just a little bit of dip buying from what we saw yesterday. we have seen duration sell off, accounting for new supply that's going to come into the market. now it's a bit of a head scratcher, at least it's a bit of a head scratcher to goldman, who says we've learned nothing new. we knew the supply was coming to market. there's no reason to be selling off treasuries. if anything, take the tactical decision and buy the treasuries at this moment. so we're seeing some of that today. but still, 30 year yields

climbed by another seven basis points yesterday at one point, german 30 year yields rose to the highest since 2014 on an intraday basis. and the curve yesterday bear steepened again. it's at its closest to zero since may. when it comes to american equity. at first yesterday, the session was one of gains. if we go to the chart, we can see some of that petering out in this morning's futures session, that decline there again, just when the day changes is around the time we got the moody's cut of various regional banks. to some of their credit ratings. will that have an impact on this overall corporate bond market? will that start to be the thing that sets off a cascade of corporate changes to bonds? we are worried about this to default cycle, at least some people are. and that junk bonds have rallied too much. could this be the thing that changes it? china also denting sentiment this morning. we saw there that exports fell for a third straight month. it's the slump in global demand that we've been talking about for a while now. so imports plunged as domestic pressures undermine and the

economy's recovery. let's get over to bloomberg's jill disis on this. jill, imports were much worse than expected. what story do the numbers tell us? hey, danny. yeah, i think that that that import figure was quite a surprise. economists are only thinking that we'd see somewhere around a 5% or so drop year on year. it was closer past 12% year on year. actually for imports this time around. i mean think that this is just serving that story that we've been seeing in china recently about this weak domestic demand. you know, there's pretty weak consumption story in china right now. i think these these imports figures certainly prove that out a little bit. falling much more than we had initially expected. think a little bit of that is also on the commodities side. we saw just from some of the data here, you know, factories in china are import ing, you know, more by volume than they were a year ago. but by value, we're seeing a

pretty poor picture there. ultimately, though, this is just adding to those additional challenges for china's recovery. obviously, that export figure very weak as well. we know that that's been the story in china for quite some time now, and that's not necessarily improving. just as demand around the world continues to remain weak. we saw a lot of china's major trade partners importing a lot less from china this time around. so ultimately, this is all just sort of combining to show that trade within china weaker than we had forecast, even even though we weren't even really expecting that great of a picture to begin with. joe, sometimes i need to take a step back and think about how different we thought things were going to be this year heading into this year, we thought the us would be in a recession, that the fed would be cutting, that we'd all be buying bonds. it'd be the year the bond and that the threat to all of that, the thing that was supposed to be doing well and adding inflationary pressures was china. i mean, we're in bizarro world. all of those things have been flipped. i mean, is there any hope left for that narrative at all that china might improve, that

growth, might come back in a big way for them? well, look, danny, i think that at least when it comes to those export figures, we're not hearing a lot of optimism from economists, although that's really been, i think, the story all along. right. that's not really where the surprise is. we've known that this major driver of trade for china and economic growth over the past couple of years probably wasn't going to happen this year. but then, you know, to turn to your question, that idea of the consumption driven economic growth that we were supposed to see really, really driving the recovery, this year, where is that coming from? is that coming back? that's where i think we have to turn our attention to what kind of support measures in china putting in place to try to boost household confidence, to get people to spend more rather than save their money, to try to get people actually, you know, participating in a lot of this activity. again, we've seen a little bit from china recently. see, you know, i know every time i appear on this program, i go back to the politburo meeting from a couple of weeks ago. those ideas on really boosting consumption and demand and driving pro growth. we've seen a little bit of that from china.

but of course, it's all been very targeted. we'll have to see if additional measures are rolled out in the coming weeks. joe, always a pleasure to get your thoughts. that's bloomberg's jill diocese now along with china. the other thing, souring markets sentiment this morning is that moody's decision in early this morning if you were in europe or overnight in the us, moody's lowered credit ratings for ten small and mid-sized us banks and says it may downgrade major lenders. now it's part of a sweeping look at mounting pressures on the industry. for more on this valerie title is back. valerie, i know moody's didn't do this because they were sick of a equity market rally. what was their reasoning? well, okay, they changed their assessment for 27 us banks. they are all a bit different, but there was a few key themes that that shrunk you strung through most of them. the first is higher funding costs. we saw big evidence of this in the latest earnings season. remember, danny, we had a lot of net interest margin compression. that's because these regional banks are having to pay more for

deposits. it's just increasing their cost of capital and eroding their profitability. that was moody's first point. they're second was regulatory capital weakness. now, we know that this new regulatory framework is going to be a have a wider breadth over the us banks. it's no longer just targeting the banks with 250 billion worth of assets. it's also targeting those with just over 100 billion. so these banks possibly are not ready for this regulatory new regulatory framework and we'll have to do more divesting of their loans to to buffer their balance sheet to get ready for them. the third was asset risk. now they specific tied the rising risk tide to their commercial and real estate loans. danny now we know that small banks in the us hold a substantial portion of the commercial real estate lending. and if moody's is correct in their assessment that we're headed for a downturn, we're headed for a recession, that commercial real estate loan book could be a very, very weak spot for these small and midsize banks. i thought, though, valerie, and

correct me if i'm wrong, that post a lot of these mid-sized banks have been divesting their loans. i mean, has that not helped their balance sheet? are they not in a better position because of that? so the possibly incrementally, danny, but that also means that they've been pulling back capitalize on lending higher yield. it was the higher cost of funding. in other banking news. a surprise tax on the extra profit.

its aim at funding the levy could bring in over 2 billion euros. keep an eye on those banks. bloomberg has told that tsmc's board has signed off on the german factory in the city of dresden worth 10 billion euros. oliver kirk joins us now. it is yet another major investment in your being chips. they have been lobbying very hard.

what they have decided to do is throw the kitchen sink and chips. we are seeing where these investments are going. it is going to create chips to service the auto industry. the eu wants to produce 20% of global chips. that produces a lot of investment. infineon broke ground. 10 billion euros worth of investment. they are very desperate to get the skies and. this is going to be my elegant segway.

one we all think of is tesla. yesterday we learned that the cfo is leaving. >> he will stick around through the end of the year which is the former chief accounting executive. he is of the executive level. this is a major blow. this is a coming that was burning up to a billion dollars every single quarter. it became profitable when they became cfo. it became an investment grade company and it has rally since he took over.

we don't know about the individual taking over. the chief account executive. for investors, kirk arne on his way out, this was an act of investor call. giving detail and specifics to analysts who care about that sort of thing. we shouldn't lose track of the fast that elon musk had his mri and we will get an update on the thunderdome fight. >> you want someone at the helm not currently distract it getting ready to fight in zuckerberg. brumberg's -- bloomberg's oliver kirk. i don't think we need that in this channel. the south african lender and an

posting an 11 year rise. we will speak to the ceo next. this is bloomberg. ♪

dani: welcome back to bloomberg daybreak: europe. the south african lender hosted an 11% rise. we are joined by an overview and a guest. the fourth biggest bank by assets, we are glad to have mike brown you mentioned a bit of the

earnings. the operating environment was more challenging, have to ask you, you will be stepping down. talk to us about where the company is that finding your successor. >> it is early days in that process. the board of the bank had commenced the process to search for a successor for myself. right now that process is going

well but there is no fixed timeline on it. >> what would you say that you have been a ceo for 14 years. what ceo are they looking for? >> you need somebody who is an experienced, well-regarded banker. someone who has the right balance between the skills required to ensure a bank performs and the skills in the transformation journey. so central to our performance over the last two years. dani: you mentioned the

difficulties in your report. the growth environment is looking pretty weak. how do you grow and an environment like that here in south africa? >> it is clear that it is going through a difficult period right now. equally as many are in domestic challenges. it is important to ensure you always step off. in terms of the key ratios. we have that. that is a vital cog. beyond that, central for us is growth in digital.

you can see in our retail business we have growth well in excess of 20%. then the other key growth segment is anything to do with energy and transiting. dani: do you think the public sector there is doing enough? >> progress is being made and it is slow. you may have seen recently over 100 c come together to work jointly with government to help improve the public sector infrastructure and transport and logistic.

>> in the report made some pretty strong word. you mentioned some estate that should never have. especially we are a few out from us. south africa will be at the center of the growth discussion. it is certainly not helpful and we do hope that that is able to be resolved soon. certainly i suppose gives us more hope for the church is the work being done in the energy and. it has been an absolute binding constraint on growth.

with 0.3%. to resolve that, we absolutely need to collect 20 to 25 gigawatts of new renewable generation capacity to the grid and improve the availability factor so we can reduce the debilitating load killing. >> mike brown joining us on learning state. thanks ray fantastic conversation. coming up, more earnings. i hg. this is bloomberg.

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dani: let's talk about travel stocks. i hg will be reporting earnings early. the auto group did predict a full recovery. let's bring in our excellent analyst. what are you going to be looking out for?

>> i hg looks toward franchising hotels. we know that the u.s. is slowing down. really also with china reopening maybe not as what we have approached so far. we still have a long way to go. also we will look at will people

return to more urban locations. >> in terms of it they have been doing well. generally beating expectations. in terms of occupancies recovering. pricing has been very strong. since the beginning of the year there has been easing of costs. when you look at the share prices when you look at the

beginning of the year we saw strong share prices before. >> that is conroy gaynor. this is bloomberg. ♪

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