jon: i am jon erlichman and welcome to bloomberg markets. matt: i am matt miller. we have the s&p 500 falling, off about 1/10 of a percent -- 0.1%. over the last two weeks, we have seen a drop of 2.5%. right now, 10 year treasuries

rising in yield, around five basis points. 4.1522 is your spot. oil adding $.72 a barrel to $83.52. what are you watching? jon: the bullish commentary from the iea which is helping oil and energy stocks. you have seen green in things like also dental. but you do have the underlying we this in technology and heavyweights like nvidia now under pressure for the first day in a row. then we have corporate stories we continue to track. ubs is moving away from government support as part of the credit suisse after transaction which has sat well with investors globally with ubs at this hour of 5%. now, we talked about the big deal between espn and 10 -- and

penn. they shifted from barstool. david portnoy will be taking over again. matt: interesting move as well as ubs. let's switch to hawaii. rescue crews and aid on the way to lahaina, hawaii where wildfires killed at least 55 people and 7000 people remain unaccounted for. let's bring in the associated administrative constructor. first of all, what do we know about efforts to find these thousand people that are missing. anne: thank you for having me. our hearts go out to the families that have lost loved ones to this tragic incident and

this wildfire that cause devastation through the lahaina community. there is a lot of effort underway. we are in the first phase of the disaster which means search-and-rescue is ongoing, life safety. ensuring people have food, water, cots. we have a distribution center in oahu that has millions of water, ready-to-eat meals, and food and blankets. all has been moved to hawaii to ensure we have what we need for survivors. matt: how has this much damage been done? i had previously never heard of wildfires in hawaii. is it all about the increased heat over the last month? as that made everything dry and ripe for damage? anne: there are wildfires in hawaii. they typically have brush fires each year. this part of maui is on the

dryer side of the alley. over the past few decades, they have seen less rainfall than traditional. some factors came into play with the fire spread as well as impacts of the hurricane force went from a system 700 miles -- hurricane force winds from a system around 700 miles away from the coast. jon: maybe you can shed light financially because that is an immediate question are many people in hawaii. the federal disaster declaration essentially -- and what the federal disaster declaration essentially a lot for you in terms of resources. anne: it unlocks federal resources including money which provides funding for home repair, services, disaster

unemployment and crisis counseling. it also unlocks small business association loans for small businesses and homes that had damage due to fire. this is a business district and towards the location. not only will assistance flow to individuals and the team to build back infrastructure but also to businesses and homeowners in the form of loans. jon: there is a high priority on the situation right now. there was a fema report very recently showing the disaster fund would run entirely out of money by september with a $4 billion deficit. if you think ahead, how does the recovery effort in hawaii play into this? are there limitations? is there some kind of budget transfer authority that can be tapped? anne: we have what we need in

our response efforts to support hawaii. but the administration is working with congress to ensure the disaster relief fund can be replenished to ensure we will continue to have resources for other disasters as they occur. matt: kansas city, was formerly the capital of hawaii, be rebuilt dashcam this city -- can this city, once formerly the capital of hawaii, be read else? anne: that is one of the first things we are looking at. but we are also looking at hotels and those kinds of things which will eventually turn into long-term housing. we will be with hawaii until the job is done and will take time. this was a devastating impact and will take time to read the old but we will support the state and community. matt: thank you for joining us. anne bink, associate

administrator of response and recovery at fema, talking about the disaster in hawaii. let's get to u.s. politics with breaking news. u.s. attorney general merrick garland is appointing an special counsel's counsel to oversee the government's ongoing criminal investigation into president joe biden's son hunter. writing as is kailey leinz. kailey: u.s. attorney in delaware david weiss since 2019 has been conducting a criminal investigation into beau biden's son -- joe biden's son. he reached an initial plea agreement earlier this summer but fell apart in court and no new agreement has been. he is now being given special counsel designation and will now not be overseen on a day-to-day

basis by the justice department. basically a difference in the chain of command. a sign they are trying to show independence to push back against criticism there has been political influence by ministration officials into this matter because that has been the messaging to this point from republicans. that there is a two tier system in the justice department. that it is being weaponized against former president donald trump while protecting the biden family. donald trump said in a statement that the entire cricket biden family had been protected for decades. we also saw a republican representative james comer said the move by garland as part of their efforts to attempt a biden family cover up. he spoke about what they currently have on going into the entire biden family dealings.

he should note that while we know hunter biden has received millions of dollars from overseas companies, there is no evidence that president biden when vice president was aware or benefited in any way or was influenced. but this is great political difficulty not just for a sitting president, but one seeking reelection in 2024. now an ongoing congressional investigation into his son. the president has been reluctant to speak about hunter publicly. the white house has declined to speak to bloomberg about this and has not put out a statement, and has referred to the and hunter biden's own representatives. jon: thank you. we will continue to track the story as we are watching the latest on the recent and data showing a big week celebration when it comes to producer

prices. we'll talk about investor reaction and what fed plans going forward to look like. this is bloomberg. ♪ welcome to the place where people go to learn about their medicare options before they're on medicare. come on in. you're turning 65 soon? yep. and you're retiring at 67? that's the plan! well, you've come to the right place. now's the time to plan ahead. learn about an aarp medicare supplement insurance plan from unitedhealthcare... and how a plan like this helps you take charge of your health care with lower out-of-pocket costs. here's why... medicare alone doesn't pay for everything. your deductibles and copays could add up to hundreds,

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>> where is the re-acceleration going to come from? we have moderating growth, unemployment is low but starting to edge of. wage increases are starting to moderate. you cannot get it through the credit channel because credit is tight and tightening. globally, we have real weakness coming from china and europe. i am wondering where this big reading celebration in inflation

will come from outside of energy. jon: i am jon erlichman with matt miller. we were just hearing from kathy jones, reacting to the july ppi report which came in stronger than x did. we are joined from washington with more. ask were story outlines, we had seen improvements for producers over the last year or a portion of the last year and now we are starting to talk about fresh headwind. reid: absolutely. that picture, you have seen producer prices move back toward the pre-pandemic trend. today's report shows decent prices moved more than x acted -- producer prices moved more than expected because of different flows. this went into the fed preferred inflation gauge which is the pce at the end of the month.

40% of the increase of services prices came from portfolio management fees, something that feeds both into the core pce at the end of the month and the super core measure folks looked at closely. compared to what we saw yesterday in terms of the sustained progress 22% goal, at the end of the month, we could get a jump scare as prices feed into these figures. matt: what are we looking at in terms of expectations for factory prices going forward? what could them higher? reade: rising oil prices is a concern. one thing on the porch is 8 in food prices, most notably from meat. as this moves toward consumers, that is the earning. grocery prices are on the rise and if there is more food inflation in the pipeline, that

is something that could hit consumers in a way rising gasoline prices go as well. matt: i thought you said a pop in food prices from "me", but you said meat. thank you very much for joining us on this inflation that we have been covering closely. reade pickert. let's continue with bill adams, chief economist from -- america. we have heard we could see more food inflation and airline ticket prices could go higher. medical costs could rise. home prices continue to rise. even though economists say in the short-term it does not have an effect on the, in the long term, it does. bill: you can look at what has

happened with the wages in the monthly jobs report since spring where we have seen average hourly earnings at a stable 4.34% year-over-year. that is higher than prior to the pandemic. the last couple years, 2018, 2019, when unemployment was normal, we saw average hourly earnings. there is a possibility we could see wage pressures feeding into a higher inflation of service pressures into 2024. that is one of the big upside risks. jon: let's talk about your own expectations on rate policy. if i am not mistaken, you would not be surprised if there was another rate hike. moving into next year, the idea of rate cuts is something you are thinking strongly about.

bill: into the next fed decision, i think it is highly likely they will pause again. it is likely that they will pass come away for more data and then consider more seriously and another hike at the november decision. i think we have seen high increases of housing and since the spring. wage inflation is still an issue. i see it more likely than not that the that airs on the sides of more restraint rather than airing by not tightening race enough which says another rate hike is a little more likely than not in november area even with that said, we are seeing a lot of relief on infraction that's inflation pressures. we have a huge wave of multifamily units under construction. renting households will see a lot of relief end lot of

bedrooms to take on new leases over the next -- release and incentives to take on new leases. even though we still see upside risk to inflation, there is downside risk as well. the fed is more likely than not going to switch to rate cuts by the first half of next year. i have one penciled into my forecast in march. jon: kind of like a gradual reduction? bill: i have 25 basis points for quarter -- per quarter in my 2024 forecast. that is a pretty slow pace of rate cuts and slower than it is priced into financial markets the last i looked. i think that is the learned that the economy operating with a relatively small margin of spare capacity and with signs of wage growth is so very robust in the

u.s. that we still can see inflation pressures revised because of this. i think that is why they will be relatively has -- relatively hesitant to take the foot off the brake, even though we are seeing a lot of fun inflation. annualized pci is up 2%. that is good news and core inflation looks like it will slow through you and day -- through year end. i think slower pace production in 2024 if they do not want to make these a mistake again. the mistake until now as they were not aggressive enough on controlling inflation. matt: why cut at all? if we are still seeing growth? at 3.5% unemployment. what will push them to cut? a jump to four or 4.5%? bill: keeping it under 4% for

two months in a road is really low. -- in a row is really low. we are seeing disinflationary pressures in a lot of parts of the economy. the housing market operated at a much lower clip that we saw in 2021 and 2022. it seems like we should translate over time. it is an obvious call to think we should move toward the fed target. the fed has been making that call for a couple years. all the tools the economic forecasters disposal say it makes sense to expect cooler inflation but those tools have not armed as well lately and that is why the cautious. jon: helpful insight. thank you for your time on this friday. bill adams from the comerica economics team. coming up, united auto workers

demands possibly forcing u.s. carmakers to nearly triple the hourly cost for union wages. this is bloomberg. ♪ 76% of 23andme health customers surveyed reported taking healthier actions. because they know health isn't just a future state. health happens now. start your dna-powered health journey today with personalized insights from 23andme.

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jon: this is bloomberg markets. i am jon erlichman with matt miller. time for our stock of the hour. the automakers shares at gm have been lower the last four sessions as the united automakers union is calling for changes that could add more than $80 billion of expenses. the union wants a 46% wage increase, restoration of pensions, cost-of-living increases, and shorter work week and better retirement benefits. a lot on the agenda and the market is paying close attention. matt: absolutely, especially

considering gm and ford with union wages pay workers so much more than competitors out of asia to produce cars in the u.s., and a lot more than tesla does. let's discuss this with bloomberg chief damon welch. the analysis i read suggested gm paced around $64 an hour but the unions want it to go up to 100 -- two over $100 an hour. how does this work? david: this includes benefits the union wants. tarantino pension benefits and retirement health care. those are big ticket items that they probably will not get. there is a huge fund that pays for retiree health care and does it well. on the pension side, that is something the companies will never give in on. if you take those away, this

will not be as much of an incident agreement and the company knows that especially after holding the line on pay raises and not getting a cost-of-living allowance while we had tough inflation the past few years. we have seen record profits from the auto companies. they want to get paid. but a lot of big-ticket items, the companies will not do. you will see a lot coming out of this. jon: we only have 30 seconds but this comes at complicated time. these automakers going through a big tv transition. david: that is right. it is costing billions for all these companies to convert over from electric -- to write electric. gm has not given us numbers but it will not be profitable until 2025. these big companies are spending money and losing money in the early days and you did wants bigger pay so it is a tense

time. matt: great reporting. david:. -- david welch, his team writing about this. jon erlichman, i am matt miller. this is bloomberg. ♪ when you automate sales tax with avalara, you don't have to worry about things like changing tax rates or filing returns. avalarahhh ahhh

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