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paul: good morning and welcome to "daybreak: australia." i am paul allen in sydney. annabelle: i am annabelle droulers in hong kong. we are counting down to asia's major market opens. shery: good evening from bloomberg's world headquarters in new york, i am shery ahn. the top stories this hour. take's birthday in two weeks helps u.s. stocks again as treasury yields go higher and argentinian experts in freefall as a government deals with the political outsiders shaking up the election race. china's property prices affecting the listed industry. shery: we meet a man who could be taiwan's next president. he tells us exclusively how he plans to reassure voters and maintain peace. u.s. futures coming online slightly higher in the asian session. this, of course, after we saw u.s. major benchmarks gain ground, tech leading the gains. it was a low-volume session, not

surprising given that august is a slow month, but a small tin can make a big difference. the russell 2000 of smaller stocks fall into a one-month low. also watching treasury yields. we have corporate bond sales weighing on prices. the 10-year yield at 4.2%, which would be in november high. the 2-year yield approaching the 5% level. the real inflation protected yield on the 10 year claiming to a 14 year high. traders expect in interest rates to be higher than inflation for quite some time. that led to gains on the u.s. dollar. the bloombergreal index breaking through its hundred dollar 200-day average. the developer should by the government and not to mention the central bank checking rate by 118 percent in argentina by 21-percentage point given the victory in the primaries by the far-right outsider, it is really

weighing on investor sentiment as we have more uncertainty going into the october elections, not to mention a potential runoff in november. wti prices are not doing much at the moment. but again, it is a very -- volumes are pretty low. not seeing that much movement given that traders are away on holidays this month. paul: we just want to get you across some news on the terminal. breaking news from national australia bank with a third-quarter trading update. profit came up. the bank and also will buy back up to 1.5 billion dollars worth of ordinary shares on-market. tier one capital ratio at 1.9%. profit at 1.7 5 billion. nab saying the decision is consistent with focus on maintaining a strong balance sheet during the cycle.

national australia bank with its third-quarter trading update. unordered cash profit, one point 9 billion. and a buyback of $1.5 billion of ordinary shares on-market. that will be one to watch when we get going in a couple of hours time, annabelle. annabelle: that's right, alongside the start of trading in tokyo as well. sydney coming online in a couple of hours, kiwi stocks in the red this morning. but we are probably expecting in trading volumes throughout the station today given the lead in from the wall street day as well. traders have a lot to consider in terms of economic data will be getting in the next couple of hours. the japanese yen, for instance, we are holding above the 145 level. have gdp data coming out for the second quarter later and we are expecting a robust pickup in demand but driven by the external side, not from the internal consumption story.

that weakness we are continuing to see in the japanese consumer is likely to keep the boj sticking with easy policy -- easing policy settings. they offshore yuan, looking towards the 7.3 level, the line the pboc so far indicated could be the one that they would draw a line at. also we have the monthly activities data in today's session that should confirm the weakness we continue to see in the chinese economy. it's not just in terms of the macro pictures, the micro is really what is happening with country garden. that is having a ripple effects. country garden very much in focus. dollar bonds trading in deeply distressed level. less than 10% of face value for a number of them. you own bonds have been suspended in trading -- yuan bonds have been suspended in trading. the government is looking to

extend a maturing bond, the first time ever. it speaks to the volumes of this magnitude of this problem. it is also having bigger effects across the economy. paul: yes, that story casting a very long shadow over the asia-pacific and china in particular. the property crash in china is now ripping into the country's $3 trillion what management industry. bloomberg economics believes missed payments by one wealth manager could be a sign of things to come. meanwhile, argentina has hiked interest rates and devalued the peso to calm market woes. let's speak to our guests, including our argentina market reporter, squad squires. tom orlik, let's start with you. this seems to be metastasizing. tell us what is going on particularly with the wealth manager.

tom: i think there are two things happening right now. the first thing is that the situation in the property sector is deteriorating. we remember a couple of years back we had evergrande getting into trouble, that was the warning sign that china's big developers were facing extreme stress. now we have country garden, an even bigger developer than evergrande, in extreme distress. second thing which is happening, is evidence that problems in the property sector are spilling over into the financial sector. that is the first company that you mentioned. trusts and china do business by taking deposits from high net worth individuals, rich investors, and channeling those into high interest loans, often to property developers. so this problem in one of china's biggest trusts, is now apparently unable to make its investors whole, it is an

indication of the pass-through from extreme stress in the real estate sector potentially to the first signs of financial instability. shery: we are getting more clues on the chinese economy today with activity data and not to mention the pboc deciding on the one-year rate. what are we expecting? tom: if we go back to the beginning of the year, there was a lot of optimism that china was going to outperform. covid controls were removed. the government introduced more stimulus and signaled a bit more support for the private sector. the first two months of the year were quite strong. what we have seen in the second quarter and headed into the third quarter is that momentum fading very rapidly. our expectation as we look to their july numbers is that we are going to see a further slow down and further fading in momentum with the property sector a significant drug and the ball now very much in the government's court.

yes they changed the tone on policy and delivered a drip drip of minor stimulus measures, but with country garden now in trouble and it with indications this is spilling over into the financial sector, i think the onus will be on beijing, in the markets will be looking to beijing to deliver more, in fact, quite a lot more stimulus. shery: scott, and we are watching the financial chaos today in argentina after their primary results. restart the government doing something they had tried to avoid for a long time, which is devaluing the currency. what is going on? scott: we saw a strong selloff in argentine markets, argentines very distressed dollar bonds dipped below $.30 on the dollar and scott's also sold off strongly. one u.s. traded etf that tracks argentine assets plunged that one point today by its most since the onset of the pandemic in march of 2020. and as you mentioned, the peso

also plummeted. unparallel exchanges, we saw it go down as much as 14% while argentines rushed to unload their paces and get into a dollarized assets for fear of further activity and further information ahead. argentines government devalued its official exchange rate by 18%, a dramatic shift in policy after the government had said for months, actually over the last four years, that they wouldn't do so. at the same time, the central bank also hiked interest rates a whopping 21% to 118 percent. this giant selloff today came after the libertarian outsider candidate roder voter angst captured about a third of the ballots in the primary vote. he identifies as a libertarian

and supports the raising argentina's economy. he has campaigned against a political class that has largely failed to quell argentina's constant inflation problems. as i mentioned, that triple digit inflation, we have inflation in this country heading past 116%. the economy is sinking into its sixth recession in a decade. voters were javier milei were very much a blow up the system vote that we have seen time and time again in recent years with the rise of these types of politicians a la donald trump. paul: the scene was definitely set for a populist to seize centerstage. interestingly, the general election will help you in -- will happen on milei's 53rd birthday. he has some unorthodox ideas, but he is a student of

economics, isn't he? scott: he is. he actually has a five large mastiff dogs that he has named after various right-wing and libertarian economists including milton friedman. he is very much trying to paint himself as an academic "populist." for all the fear we saw in markets today, investors are have spoken with her actually not as bearish on the milei presidency as you would expect. there is a few reasons. first of all, he doesn't have strong support in congress, he doesn't have a party structure backing him so it may be hard to get his more radical reforms through a divided legislature, forcing him to potentially moderate from his campaign rhetoric or just be read blocked on his radical proposals that include, like mentioned, dollar raising argentina's economy, ditching the peso altogether and going for the u.s. dollar as a

common currency used for daily transactions. he hasn't actually painted a lot of steps of how argentina would get there. so there are still a lot of questions about how he would implement some of these policies. regardless of whether or not he is able to dollarized the economy, there are certain things investors are looking for, for the next government to do in argentina. some of those reforms include slashing public spending, and frontloading a very strong fiscal adjustment, adjusting the currency as well. it seems like the presidential race is boiling down to two candidates who would do some of those reforms no matter what, either milei, or the second runner-up from the right wing party coalition. shery: argentina is an economy that has been struggling with soaring prices, inflation at 115% as this chart on the

bloomberg shows, what is the risk of devaluation that is difficult to break? tom: first of all, i wouldn't place too much confidence in milei, based on his ownership of some dogs which are named after economists. as a child, i had some hamsters who are named after professional footballers, and it didn't seem to catapult me into a career at the top of the premier league. [laughter] now, almost going onto argentina right now, we have had two major events, we have had the election and we have had the devaluation. our view, the view of the argentina economists, is that the real news for the market is the election. plan devaluation, argentina need support from the imf. the imf had told them they needed 20% devaluation. so this came as a surprise for the market.

but the idea is already circulating in the policy space. i think the real news is the surprise performance on the libertarian firebrand javier milei in the elections. this is a movement where argentina needs a hard turn towards economic orthodoxy they will solve their problem with runaway inflation. milei, at first sight, doesn't appear to be offering anything which looks like the economic textbook playbook. shery: tom orlik, looking forward to seeing you are our skills on the field. [laughter] our chief economist on bloomberg, scott squires, joining us from buenos aires as well. let's turn to taiwan. the vice president is seeking to reassure voters that that he is a steady set of hands as he campaigns to become the islands next heater. he spoke dismissively to bloomberg businessweek to his first interview with its national media since becoming vice president, and told us

about his plans for relations with mainland china. >> we must abide by the truth, which is what i mean by pragmatism. it is that i want is already a sovereign independent country called the republic of china. it is not part of the people's republic of china. the roc and the prc are not subordinate to one another. there is no necessity to declare independence. my responsibility is to maintain the status quo in the taiwan strait well-protected taijuan and maintaining democracy, peace and prosperity, so no such framework exists. we must work to maintain the peaceful status quo because taiwan is already a sovereign country. >> how confident are you that the u.s. will have taijuan's

back should the situation with china escalate? >> the u.s. is a close friend of taiwan. we are partners in a number of areas, from politics, the economy, human rights, to our society. because taijuan's security challenges are a global concern, the upkeep of peace and stability in both the taiwan strait and the indo-pacific region fulfills the common interests of the international community. i believe all democracies in the world, including the u.s., would be aware of how to respond if such a scenario were to take place. >> where do you want the world to know about you as a person? >> i am a rational and steady leader. i know how we can respond to the challenges we face as a country. i also understand that the serious and complex issues in the taiwan strait call for irrational and steady leadership. this will enable our country to

move forward amid changing geopolitical circumstances. paul: taiwanese vice president lai ching-te speaking is specific to bloomberg businessweek's joel weber there. you can hear more from our exclusive interview with lai later this hour when we discuss where he sees the redline for china's military excursions, and whether washington's stance is too provocative. you can also read the story in this week's addition of bloomberg businessweek. another alert on the bloomberg terminal now, numbers out of csl. full-year revenue of up 26% to 13.3 one billion. final dividend, $1.29. shares have had a rough ride this year, but these numbers were fairly strong, from

austria's biggest pharmaceutical manufacturer. just to recap, underlying profit, 2.6 $1 billion, up 10%. that is another stock to watch at the open when we get going here in austria in two hours. more in a moment. ♪

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paul: we saw u.s. equities rising into the close ended and being a good day. futures looking like this at the moment. s&p and nasdaq futures moderately higher, but a bit of weakness for dow jones futures. our next guest says the u.s. equities market should continue to surprise to the upside. let's discuss where the opportunities are within the senior portfolio manager from multi-asset solutions that allspring global investments, margie patel. take a quick look at earnings season. you see more potential upside for u.s. equities this year, but how are valuations looking to you the moment? margie: they look about average. in other words if earnings are still up, there should be room for evaluations to go up. if you look at the average cash flow per share, it is between 17 times and 18 times or a cash flow yield of 5.5% or 6%.

that is good considering where treasuries are, especially when treasuries are on pace to go down next year which is the growing consensus among investors. paul: is there any reason to take a look at risk assets, though,, because you can't find pretty decent yield elsewhere with treasuries staying on cash. margie: that is true, but those terms are fleeting. you could get 6.5% in money market yields, but we will see those yields start to drop in a few months if and when the federal reserve begins to lower rates. so we think it is better to look at the long-term, look at good quality equities. equities will once again outproduce anything in the fixed income area for total return. shery: is there any relative good value in the fixed income space? margie: i think the high-yield market below investment grade is

actually, for fixed income investor, a pretty good opportunity. good yields are 7.5% and 8%. most are trading at $.90 on the dollar. if you had yields come down, you could have some appreciation plus, the yield is a lot more than treasuries that investment grade. the supply of high-yield bonds has been rather constrained last year and this year. so looking at it as a supply and demand came there is relative scarcity of good quality high-yield. that could be competitive that in the next 12 months. shery: what is the trajectory and is this important for your portfolio, of the u.s. dollar? we continue to see hedge funds treating short positions. margie: i think the dollar will continue to be relatively strong. we are not looking for any correction in the dollar. the reason is because the economic fundamentals of the u.s. look very strong. we should start to see an inflection in growth for the

third and the fourth quarter of this year. that would be very positive for the value of the dollar. shery: margie patel, all is great to have your insight, senior portfolio manager for multi-asset solutions at all spring. and you can get a roundup of all the stories you need to know to get your day going on today's edition of "daybreak." terminal subscribers, go to dayb . this is bloomberg. ♪ , only on game nights. you know you are retired right? am i? ya! save 50% on the sleep number limited edition smart bed. plus, 36 month financing on select smart beds. 76% of 23andmeat health customers surveyed

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paul: monday was the deadline for hedge funds to disclose their equity investments for the second quarter. shery: here are some of the highlights. michael burry's psion asset management exited alibaba and jd.com in the second quarter. the two chinese tech companies comprise 20% of the firm's portfolio as of the end of

march. scion liquidated holdings in several filled lenders. this hedge fund placed big bets on tech in the second quarter. rokos bought 2.7 million shares in an etf that tracks the performance of the nasdaq 100. rokos said it held 7.7 million shares of the etf by mid-year, up from just over 272,000 at the end of march. the qqq generated a 50% return in the second quarter, beating the s&p 500. this is bloomberg. ♪

paul: taiwanese vice president lai ching-te is seeking to assure voters that he is a steady set of hands as he competes to be the islands next leader. he spoke exclusively to bloomberg businessweek in his first interview with international media since becoming vice president. >> we must abide by the truth, which is what i mean by pragmatism. it is that taiwan is already a sovereign independent country called "the republic of china." it's not part of the people's republic of china. the roc and p.r.c. are not subordinate to one another. it is not necessary to declare independence. >> what is your roadmap to formal independence? >> my responsibility is to maintain the status quo in the taiwan strait while protecting taijuan and maintaining

democracy, peace and democracy. no such framework exists. we must work to maintain the peaceful status quo, because taijuan is already a sovereign country. >> china keeps pushing on the status quo and pushing its missile over taiwan. it has crossed the median line over the taiwan strait and simulated in naval blockade. where is your redline? >> increased tensions impacting the status quo in the taiwan strait have not originated from taiwan, they are due to china's growing assertiveness. china not only seeks to annex taiwan but also hope to change the international rules-based order. under these circumstances, we must be clear taijuan's security is of international concern. peace and stability on the taiwan strait is in line with international interests. because challenges in the taiwan strait are a global concern, it

will redline will also be taiwan's redline and a global redline. >> you have said provocative things in the past that would be of interest to washington. how have you changed? >> i have been part of president tai's national security team. together with the u.s. government, we have responsible and clear channels of information, able to share information effectively, understand where the issues are and cooperate in resolving them. this election is about choosing between two roads, one way is to continue engaging and cooperating closely with the international community where deepening our democracy. the other choice is to accept the one china principle and stand together with china. i believe the u.s. will continue to support us on the first path. >> how confident are you that the u.s. will have t

aiwan's back should the situation escalate? >> the is a close friend of taijuan, we are partners in a number of areas from politics, the economy, human rights, to our society. because taiwan's security challenges are a global concern, that at cape of peace and stability in the region fulfills the common interests of the international community. i believe that all democracies in the world, including the u.s., would be aware of how to respond if such a scenario were to take place. >> what do you want the world to know about you as a person? >> i rational and steady leader. am a i know how we can respond to the challenges we face as a country. i also understand that the serious and complex issues in the taiwan strait call for a rational and steady leadership. this will enable our country to move forward amid changing

geopolitical circumstances. shery: taiwanese vice president lai ching-te speaking is exclusively to bloomberg businessweek's joel weber. for more, bloomberg's geo-economics analyst. jennifer, lai is presenting himself as a continuity candidate, what does that mean for taipei-beijing relations, and what does beijing think of lai? >> thank you for having me. lai is definitely painting himself as a continuity candidate, especially on issues such as taiwan status and relationship to beijing. but her statement from beijing earlier this weekend shows he is definitely not asians preferred candidate, and there is a question of how beijing would respond to a live victory in the elections in january. paul: what is going on with lai's u.s. transit, he wasn't

just hanging out in the transit lounge and doing duty-free shopping, he has given interview and held meetings. how is beijing responded to this? jennifer: transits by taiwanese leaders and political candidates are typical, although this is unique given the tensions between the u.s. and china and lai's candidacy. his stopover in new york just concluded and he will be flying back to san francisco later this week. so far beijing's reaction has been akin to how they responded to tai's transit back in the spring but will see additional measures will. when lai's visit concludes this week. shery: what is the state of taiwan's 2024 presidential race? jennifer: it is early days, but the polls show lai leading. he has a strong reliable base with the democratic progressive party and he is benefiting from

a pretty fractured opposition party. the stakes are going to be high going into january and we will see closer to the fall how the polls are shaping up, but he has got a pretty good lead. paul: all right, bloomberg economics chief geoeconomics analyst jennifer welch, there in washington. you can read more from the occlusive interview with the taiwanese presidential candidate lai ching-te in this week's edition of bloomberg businessweek. treasury secretary janet yellen says she sees a path to easing u.s. inflation without hurting employment. >> the administration remains committed to taking actions to lower prices for americans where we can. and we continue to monitor developments, particularly those abroad that may affect prices and growth. paul: for more on janet yellen speech, our reporter christopher

con them joins us from las vegas. -- christopher condon. chris kaba, is there a bit over disconnect here? if they have been so terrific in proving -- improving people's lives, what is the need to go out and sell its benefits? christopher: i think you are seeing the beginning of the 2024 presidential election campaign. biden is sending out his cabinet members and speaking himself, trying to convince the american public that they are benefiting from what they call bidenomics, the policies they pursued to try to pull the economy out of the wreckage of the pandemic and recover from that. to be fair, yellen has a lot of good things to talk about. inflation is finally coming down, and the employment rate is surprisingly at near an historical low of 3.5%. but as you say, there is a disconnect. poll after poll shows that the american people, first of all do

not give the biden administration credit on the economic front, and second of all, are not convinced that the economy is doing that much better than it was a year ago. that is very much a communications problem for the biden administration. shery: usually when you are lagging in the polls, a common enemy helps. china has played some of that role in past elections. we heard from secretary yellen talking about chinese economic risk. what exactly did she say? christopher: she made a subtle reference to monitoring international developments, then she was asked about this. we had a short meeting with her, with the reporters after the speech, and she said a couple of things about china. she thinks first of all that the biggest impact of the slowdown in the chinese economy is going to be on its asian neighbors, because they are countries that

i supplying china -- china is buying from them. but there could be spillovers for the u.s. economy. and at the same time, she said that doesn't really affect her optimism for the u.s. economy. she still sees growth continuing on perhaps more slowly in the second half of the year, and she still expects to see a very strong labor market. shery: shery: bloomberg u.s. treasury reporter christopher condon there are us from las vegas. coming up, em bombs rallying as treasuries slide, disrupting the old playbook for investors. we discussed the performance of emerging local data next with gama asset management. this is bloomberg. ♪

shery: big moves in the currency space today. the devaluation of the argentine peso, 18%. in the parallel market on the streets, it is much, much weaker. the central bank had to hike rates 118%, by 21 percentage points after the surprise victory by outsider javier milei in the sunday primaries. and a look at the chilean peso, extreme weakness and a little

bit of strength. we had monetary policy minutes from the central bank showing that they are on this aggressive easing path. also watching the ruble which at one point surpassed the 100 per dollar level. the weakness has been significant, of course the ongoing crisis in ukraine continues. and we are watching the offshore yuan, it is steady at the moment after falling to the weakest level since november against the u.s. dollar. we had the u.s. dollar also rallying on that real rate climbing to the 14-year high as we continue to see treasury yields climbing. let's look at local currency em bonds which rallying even as treasury yields spiked. a bloomberg analysis showing the correlation between the u.s. and em yield has dropped almost zero, marking the change from last year. our microstrategist markets joins us from singapore. what is the importance of this finding and what does it mean

for money managers out there? >> the coalition between em and treasuries is little correlation. it is a market change from february of this year when the coalition was above 0.4% or even in the second quarter of last year when it was above 0.2%. what does it mean for asset managers? it means more attention must be in local factors. key differentiating factors in terms of returns. argentina is going through devaluation, but if you look at the rate cut cycle across latin america, chile and brazil have cut expectations, for chile, to be more aggressive after this. on the other hand if you look at central banks in columbia and mexico, people are expecting them to only ease of rates towards the end of last year -- towards the end of this year. compare this to the first quarter of this year when latin america was holding rates, the

mood has shifted. we are seeing differentiated returns, the different economies reacting differently to interest rates and inflation. secondly, fund managers can keep in mind moving forward that with em yields more impervious to u.s. yield moves, it lessens the need to allocate u.s. exposure in portfolios. paul: why are some investors saying that em looks like it has better prospects, despite the risk of high u.s. yields? marcus: that has been a huge change in the rate difference since the start of the year. for most people, the consensus is for a soft landing narrative, compared to the first quarter of the year where it was all about a hard landing and u.s. recession. in general, this is positive for em assets in general. . it is reflected in u.s. yields. at the start of the year -- in

2022, a lot of the u.s. yields movement was driven by inflation concerns. compared to where we are right now, movement in higher u.s. yields is due to a better u.s. growth prospect. secondly is the whole divergence between dm and em. in em, it is really a question of when will the central bank cut rates, and if they do cut rates, by how much. and secondly it is the whole question about how em currencies will perform moving forward. there is a view for psalm that the u.s. dollar is overvalued at this point in time. so even if the dollar rises from current levels, it will not punish em currencies as much. bear in mind, for a lot of em economies, the current accounts are in more robust positions than they were a few years back. shery: bloomberg's marcus wong joining us from singapore with this week's em ahead story.

our next guest says opposing forces are pulling on em bonds at this point. let's discuss with rajeev de mello, senior macro portfolio manager at gama asset management. always great to have you with us. marcus was telling us about yields rising and how that can pressure em bonds. take a look at this chart. we are seeing the 10-year yield real yield, the inflation protected rate climbing to a 10 year high and leading to more demand for the u.s. dollar. cannot local bonds in u.s. emerging markets ride out this short-term volatility? rajeev: thank you for having me. indeed it is a very unusual circumstance looking back in the last three decades to have the fed embarking on such an aggressive hiking cycle, real rates going up so much and em holding up so well. it is really something quite different and reflects the good fundamentals and the preparedness with which emerging markets have come into this rate

hiking cycle. many of them hiked before the fed and their economies were not plagued by an excess surge of foreign capital which did not come in the last 10 years. em has not been a favorite destination on the bonds side for the last decade. so it is not as though it is a crowded market where people are preparing to exit, it is more one that investors are seeing this local -- this low correlation that your chart should early on. shery: but economic fundamentals say that china, so important in emerging markets it has been really tough at the moment. we saw the chinese yuan fall to the november low against the u.s. dollar. is that a headwind for em's or could there be more opportunities in chinese government bonds? rajeev: indeed, for emerging markets, the u.s. and europe are one side of the story, very

important in terms of global growth. but china is a major client for most emerging market countries, and the slowdown in china is a headwind. i absolutely agree. in terms of opportunities, what that will do is reduce the threat of higher global inflation. china is actually exporting deflation, which is something positive for global up but -- global bondholders who had been worried about inflation until now. that is definitely an opportunity for em as well. paul: how long do you see this deflationary environment in china lasting for? is the current policy response that we are seeing point to be enough to address it? rajeev: the deflationary story is, -- i think it will be a minor one. we are not going into a major inflationary cycle in china.

there is excess supply because a lot of support during the waves of covid was more on the supply-side than the consumption side unlike in the u.s. and europe where consumers were helped a lot. so, that lack of demand is reflected in the fact that china is exporting more and its currency is weaker. it's inflation is slightly negative as well. that could last for a while until domestic demand recovers and at least until confidence is rebuilt among entrepreneurs to invest again. and that is lacking so far. unless we see policy action on the chinese side to restore the confidence, until we see that, this situation can persist. shery: what do you think of chinese government bonds, especially for foreign investors? rajeev: chinese government bonds do well on a hedged basis. the currency is the risk. as you mentioned early on, it has been weakening quite a bit.

and i expected to continue to weaken. the interest rate differential is in the u.s. dollar's favor and growth prospects will slow down for the low yielding country. that is a negative side when you have chinese government bonds which are not hedged well. in terms of yield, chinese yields can remain low, but we can expect some supply coming in as a lot of these new policies involve increasing debt in china in local bonds. paul: i would really like to get your opinion on what we have seen happening in argentina over the past 24 hours. that outsider javier milei, no longer an outsider anymore when it comes to being the attentional next president. fair few outflows out of argentina since then. what is your outlook for bonds in argentina for the peso. will there even be a peso in a

couple of months? rajeev: well, the political noise, often from latin america. we have seen that in various cases. argentina has become part of a small part of emerging markets, so it doesn't have as much influence as it would have had decades ago. so in terms of the impact on em, it is limited. indeed, with the new policies, i think there will be a lot of turmoil until the election happens, typically that happens in all the electoral cycles, a period of volatility and afterwards, things should calm down. but i wouldn't be investing in argentina bonds or currencies yet until we have a change in the overall framework of policymaking in argentina. paul: rajeev de mello, senior macro portfolio manager at gama asset management, thank you for joining us. bloomberg users can get more

emerging market news at top em on the terminal. and shorter tune into bloomberg radio to hear more from the day 's policymakers and get analysis from our "daybreak" team, broadcasting live from hong kong. you can listen via the app radio+ or on bloomberg.com. plenty more ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪ you don't have to worry about things like changing tax rates or filing returns. avalarahhh ahhh

paul: shares of hawaiian electric plunged by a record, unconcerned that it's power lines may be linked to the deadly maui wildfires. the utility that serves maui has come under scrutiny for not turning off our despite warnings. lawyers are honing in on the utility's equipment as a potential source of ignition and they plan to file lawsuits this week. . northern india is bracing for more heavy rain after landslides, floods and the collapse of a temple killed more than two dozen people and severely disrupted road transport. forecasters say extremely heavy rainfall is likely on tuesday and much of pradesh. many have been killed at the downfall triggered landslides and damaged houses. let's take a look at commodities, how they are trading at the moment. we had seen the rally in oil

stalling somewhat. supply remains tight for oil, but there are fresh concerns also over china's economy. w.t.o. is trading at $82.34. a bit of stability in natural gas prices as well, edging higher. there is a new round of talks today between woodside and unions here in australia over pay and conditions. the hope is that this would avoid a strike which would disrupt natural gas supply particularly into asia gold. , the weakest in six weeks for gold, no influence despite the appropriate troubles in china. china's gold prices are edging higher as imports are limited. that is it for "daybreak: australia." "daybreak: asia" is next. ! this is bloomberg. ♪ -awww. -awww. -awww.

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