>> you are watching "daybreak: asia" coming to live from new york, sydney and hong kong. >> we are counting down to asia's major market opens. paul: asian shares set for a positive star after tech stocks do well on wall street. 10-year treasury yield's up to a 10 year high. and softbank files for what could be the biggest ipo of the year. writing a boom -- riding a boom. and carpet -- and charles rob to cut jobs. shery: look at how u.s. futures are trading early in the asian session. we are seeing pressure after a mixed finish. we had the dow falling but tech leading the gains on the s&p 500 which gained ground for the first time in five years.

-- in five sessions. the dollar swinging between gains and losses with the u.s. bond selloff continuing. we take a close look at treasury futures. the 10-year gilts at a 16 year high -- the 10 year yields at a 16 your high. we continue to watch this major shift in it comes to the last two weeks that the u.s. economy might stay resilient and we will continue to see the supply of treasury debt. crude has turned slightly positive in the asian session after falling in new york. we had some concerns about rebounding supply. also in the u.s., softbank arm filing for an ipo seeking to lift it shares on the nasdaq under the symbol arm. the ipo is on track to be the year's largest in the u.s. and could and up ranking among the

biggest tech listings ever. for more, let's bring in leanna baker. how are we expecting this to go? >> there are so many unknowns. we finally have the ipo filing tonight. it feels like we have been waiting for years for. we don't know how much they want to raise. it depends. we don't know the valuation. softbank bought arm for 32 billion dollars in 2016. we reported it could be valued at 60 million dollars -- $60 billion. it depends on the roadshow which will not kick off until september. we have revenue numbers but we don't know yet what this company will be valued at but it seems like a good time to be going public if you are a semiconductor company given what is going on with nvidia and whatnot. paul: we are getting more commentary from softbank saying do not expect arm ipo to impact

the financial position. the roadshow gets underway pretty soon. who is likely to be the anchor? >> we have reported that some of arm's high profile customers like intel, amazon, nvidia, these are the names that could step up and buy stakes in the ipo. but these will not be huge investors. some of the investments could be about $100 million. it is like a token show of support. it will only be a minority share sale. these companies are coming into help out for the ipo but they will not be supporting the whole thing. the company will need major institutional investors to come in. shery: this is supposed to be the largest ipo in the u.s. since rivian. what will it do for the broader market? >> there are so many private companies waiting in the wings

trying to decide if now is the time to go public. it is been a rough year for the ipo market. proceeds coming from a johnson & johnson spinoff. there has not been anything. this is causing a lot of excitement. we have reported that there are companies like instacart in the u.s. and they could have their financials be disclosed at any point in the next few weeks because they also want to go public. it depends on what is the demand for arm but we won't know that for a few weeks. paul: bloomberg's u.s. deals managing editor leanna baker. the bond market selloff has resumed driving 10 year treasury yields to a 16 year high. traders continue to watch the steps taken by china. let's discuss this with our mliv contributor, garfield. and john liu.

garfield, let's start with you and yields. garfield: we could go higher. on one hand on a nominal basis we are at levels we have not seen for a long time. in some ways we are at the lowest levels that we have seen for quite a while for a tightening cycle in that the 10 year yield is still well under the fed target rate. in previous cycles usually the 10 year yield tops out at or above the fed's target rate. on that basis you could go almost a percentage point higher if the fed does not hike again. that in and of itself is a lodestone that this selloff could go significantly further. there are obviously a lot of nerves leading into jackson hole. we have the traditional august northern summer lull. some traders saying liquidity is

thin. and who wants to take the risk of going long bonds here and now you have jackson hole coming up that could reset things higher if jay powell is sounding like one more hike is a definite and two more even could come so do you want to stand in the way of the beer run we are in the middle of? shery: given the strength of the u.s. economy which has been resilient surprising people, going in the opposite direction it seems like china's growth forecast continues to be cut. john, what are we seeing? >> we are seeing an economy that is struggling and we are seeing a government that is trying to find a path forward in terms of what to do when it comes to borrowing costs for the company. how to balance that with financial stability and it comes to the banking system. and trying to figure out how to fix a property market that is

broken at the moment. home prices going down. new construction is falling. developers are defaulting on their debt. these things way on the economy taking a hard path forward for beijing. paul: john, local government financing vehicles, this is a weak point in the chinese economic story at the moment. we are hearing news there could be an emergency liquidity to help these lgfe's out. how deep is the debt hole? >> we use $8 trillion which comes from the imf but nobody knows for sure how much debt is outstanding in terms of lgf fees. these are small vehicles used by local governments to build sewer systems and stadiums. a lot of stuff they have built

have not produced the economic outcomes they have hoped for so they cannot pay for this debt with taxes at the local level. the central bank is looking at working with the banks to provide some money to help provide liquidity to these companies so they are not under the strain when it comes to finding the money to continue servicing that debt. shery: garfield, when it comes to the markets we have seen incredible pressure on the stock markets and on the yuan as well but we were speaking to a ubs analyst and he said the gloom and doom have been priced in. what are we expecting in terms of the outlook for chinese assets? garfield: one complicating factor when you're looking at china's assets is what is going on with the yuan. i am not sure you could argue that all of the doom and gloom has been priced into the yuan precisely because the pboc will

not let it find its price. if you had, as in a lot of the economies in the world especially economies as large as china's, if you had a more open foreign-exchange market the yuan would have gone lower and then bounced back. that does not fit with the way that china sees how it needs to keep control over its capital markets. as a result of that you have this ongoing tension and this ongoing certainty precisely because worst has not been priced in and then out when it comes to the yuan. that keeps everybody's focus on -- was it 9:15 a.m. china time the yuan and how strongly the pboc will push back and whether it will succeed in slowing the appreciation. there is also the concern that the yuan is stronger than it should be and that is acting to

retarded activity even as they are trying to stimulate. you have that concern. and more straightforward when it comes to equities, a lot of doom and gloom has been priced in. there is also though the difficulty that we have -- sentiment has markedly turned against chinese equities at least for the moment and that is partly because investors keep on getting bitten. you could say 11 times bitten, 12 time shy is sort of how it it is looking at the moment. the most recent incident was end of july promises of stimulus and meetings with investors. the stock market jumped and a couple weeks after the jump, it turned around and erased all of that and that was without any sudden regulatory crackdown. that is in the muscle memory for chinese investors. i think we will see money start to come back into chinese

equities on the idea that a lot of the room and doom if not most of it has been priced in. the worry is that any rally from these levels rapidly becomes very vulnerable. if people look at it and think i have 5%, 6%, 8%, when is the next you going to drop? when will i need to sell out to lock in those gains and avoid going back to ground zero? shery: you really need to be able to stomach the volatility in china. garfield reynolds and john. we will be watching the china open into hours. let's see how we are setting up in the broader asian session. >> take a look at china futures. pointing to a modest gain at the start of trading. still range bound. it tells you the level of uncertainty in the market. and the pessimism around china's market -- china's economy.

and no clear strategy out of the malaise given what we have heard from officials with a lot of rhetoric rather than anything substantive. we do have most markets pointing to gains which is a reflection of what happened in the wall street session. in video reporting earnings later this week and we have a huge gain expected in profit there. the stock rising at about 8% in the intraday session. and the news around softbank. watching the tech sector closely. what could be a lid is what we see in bond yields. in line with what came through with treasuries. the expectation there could be further rate hikes to come. inflation is not over yet so we have the japanese yen pushing above the 140 six level and keeping an.

higher treasury yields have been selling putting pressure on the biggest crypto asset trading near the 26,000 level. paul: thank you. still to come, badri ev registrations fall in china while intense competition ways on the sectors earning. we discussed the move for clean cars. but first, we will see why state street sees the world's economy remaining resilient despite growth slowing along with inflation. we talk market strategy next. this is bloomberg. ♪

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shery: u.s. futures muted early in the asian's -- and after a stocks finished mixed in new york. the dow falling but the tech leading gains in the s&p 500. and this all despite the fact that we had treasury yields rising across the board. we are waiting for chair powell to speak friday at jackson hole. in the meantime we watch the dollar swinging between gains and losses. energy was down in the new york session given oil fell below $81 a barrel we are seeing a little upside for oil in the asian session. paul: let's bring in our next guest. lori heinel come a global ceo --

cio at state street global advisors. it has been a bit of a day on u.s. markets particularly tech. can we say with confidence that the bottom is in or is this just a breather because valuations are looking rich? lori: we are still pretty constructive on equities particularly u.s. equities. we think u.s. has more room to run. consumers have been more resilient than forecast. you're starting to see the light at the end of the tunnel as the fed completes its hiking cycle. paul: in terms of the fed, you state the light at the end of the tunnel, maybe you think the fed has done enough but how certain can you be that the tightening rhetoric we are hearing out of the fed is just that, rhetoric? lori: it is never certain when you're talking about the fed because they want to keep markets on their toes. we think the combination of the hikes they have made already as well as other tightening

financial conditions have done the job. does that mean does say they will not take a big -- another big bite of the apple in september we think each incremental hike they have from here raises the risk we have a much sharper slow down and maybe even a recession. as long as inflation remains contained we think they will take a pause. we will hear more from chairman powell later this week. shery: you just mentioned you are still overweight equities but in your notes you say cash is also attractive. what is behind that allocation? lori: it really is not liking bonds very much right here. we are becoming more constructive as we see 10-year going up over the 4% level. as your earlier guest said we may see bond yields back up further from here. the big plays are like a barbell. overweight equities.

and then we are putting a -- holding a fair amount of cash because we want to wait for better opportunities elsewhere. shery: with the elsewhere include overseas markets? lori: it might. overseas we have been more constructive on your that we have lightened up our overweight there because we feel u.s. proves more resilient in this environment. we are not getting very excited about asia yet. we believe the china story will continue to weigh on the region. there may be bright lights like japan, a lot of concern about how that will play through in the asian markets. paul: to your point on asia markets, we do have a chat on the bloomberg showing half of the hang seng index oversold. there is a suite of superlatives when it comes to china. we have had 11 days of net selling. what would change your attitude on china?

do you anticipate any meaningful stimulus coming out of policymakers? lori: one of the challenges with china is we will see some stimulus we believe that it won't be enough to stop the decline. we expect this property market rehabilitation will take several years and probably be a headwind for growth in china for quite a bit of time. that is against a backdrop where global growth is also slowing. there is not any release valve for china. we are not very constructive there. shery: lori heinel, always good to see you. global cio at state street global advisors. you can go to tv if you missed part of the conversation and you can go to today's edition of daybreak to find our top stories. dayb . you can customize your settings so you only get the news on the industries on the assets that

you care about. this is bloomberg. ♪

paul: hedge fund engine number one jennifer says it is time to invest in u.s. factories and railroads. she told us that we are only at the beginning of restoring supply chains back to the u.s. >> mega theme is how i think about it. they are complicated systems. we are just at the beginning of a reassuring supply chains back to the u.s. last year we saw almost 400,000 jobs come back as part of reassuring supply chains. megaprojects. if you think of megaprojects across the different industries in the u.s., we are building

factories and they need to be smarter and they need factory automation. from the transfer spec -- from the transportation perspective railroads are a factor. it is the time to get into supply chain in our opinion. it is a theme that will persist for years. >> let's talk about engine number one under tcw. tcw is known as an active investor. i think of them as a bond shop. putting that together is it in the future you will be looking to launch active products and more traditional bond spaces? >> if you think about what engine number one does today, we are in the active equities phase, tcw is not just a bond and fixed income shop. we will continue to see more active equity products. there is also an opportunity to look at the income side. paul: that is engine number one

ceo jennifer. here are some of the stocks we are watching at the start of trade in sydney. australia's competition watchdog has cleared the acquisition of new crest mining by its rival newmont corporation making newmont the largest bullion producer in the world. the company is expected to wrap up the transaction later this year. bhp has reported a 37% decline on full-year profit. china's struggling economy weighing on demand for iron ore and other commodities. bhp's key profit measure fell. it is paying a final dividend of $.80 per share down from $1.75 a year ago. woodside energy reporting a first-half underlying profit of $1.9 billion. that is up 4.2% year on year.

the australian companies net income came in at $1.74 billion. operating revenue is up 27%. we will be speaking to the bhp ceo mike henry about their full-year results at 10:30 a.m. hong kong time. woodside energy ceo meg o'neill will also join us later on for the latest numbers from them as well. those will be the stocks to watch and we do get underway in australia at the top of the hour futures pointing higher by .25%. and a note on woodside, the company is dealing with the risk of strike action. the offshore line voting a strike action if there was no agreement by the close of business on wednesday. it would require seven days notice. we could see woodside workers going on strike september 2 which would impact 11% of global

supplies. watching woodside today for more reasons than just their results. in new zealand they have been trading for 90 minutes. weakness. nikkei futures looking flat at the moment as our s&p. we have the yen back above 146. 146.22 at the moment. we do have plenty more to come on "daybreak: asia." stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ wow, you get to watch all your favorite stuff. it's to die for. and it's all right here. streaming was never this easy, you know. this is the way. you really went all out didn't you? um, it's called commitment.

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we are counting down to the market opens first sydney and tokyo. taking stock of a couple of key factors or metrics that investors will be watching in the session today. the first is the tech sector broadly after we had nvidia rising as much as h percent on the wall street session -- 8% on the wall street session. investors starting to think about where the stock will head over the coming months given it is seen as a key beneficiary in the ai trade. earnings coming out august 23. the expectation is we will see a 65% jump in revenue. i had of that analysts have been betting on the earnings blowout. we have seen the average price tag rising for the stock. clearly investors are seeing

more upside to come. 11% to the last close. that is one factor we will be watching closely and the second is what happens with chinese markets today. we see futures pointing a little higher. the question is whether all of the pessimism around china's economy has been fully baked in. this chart looks at a momentum indicator. the hang seng index, 50% of its constituents with a are assigned below the 30 level indicating oversold conditions. shery: checking chinese markets ahead of the open. a lot happening on wall street today. citigroup considering reshuffling its executive ranks. goldman sachs exploring the sale of a personal-finance business it bought four years ago. su keenan joins us. start with goldman and its pivot away from the market.

su: part of the massive undoing goldman had to moving towards consumer banking for the masses. it is the first big signature deal on dirt ceo david solomon. it was the deal to buy united capital in 2015. oldman saying "we are currently evaluating alternatives for that business as we determine where to invest our resources and where we see the greatest opportunity." the unit is a small part of its wealth offering it symbolized the earlier efforts by solomon to expand the firm's business lines which are now being unwound. the purchase gave goldman an instant foothold in the mass market. at the time united had 220 advisors. it now has $29 billion in assets. it tells you it did not grow that much.

goldman stock has risen significantly under solomon. we have been reporting along with a lot of the financial media the internal discontent that husband expressed by a lot of senior management -- that has been expressed my a lot of senior management as these deals have been unwound. the bank has also been pursuing a sale of green sky just over a year after it bought it. another sign of how management is backtracking on that strategy. the stock took a bit of a hit in the latest session. paul: at the same time we have potential changes at city in the executive ranks structurally as well. su: this could be a major structural change, the biggest in a decade. fraser, according to sources close to the matter considering an overhaul of the firm's most powerful committee of decision-makers. this comes as longtime deputy

paco is thinking -- is planning to leave. he has been at city for three decades and had led the biggest unit, institutional clients group. with this move we are told that city is also mulling a decision to scrap to operating units it had to house various divisions including icg. the financial times was first to report the story and they are saying the overhaul would involve splitting this key division which is almost everything besides retail banking which makes up 75% of its profit in 2022. that it would go into three parts. investment and corporate banking, global markets and transaction services. a spokesperson has declined to comment but for months frazier has been saying that efforts to rejigger cities structure would allow them to simplify the bank

operations. she said last year it should not come as a surprise to you that becoming a flatter and leaner organization is a priority for me. paul: all right, bloomberg's su keenan. let's have a look at charles schwab and how that stock is doing after hours. weakness, off by .5% after the brokerage announced cost-cutting measures saving $500 million a year. let's get more from vonnie quinn. is this related to the banking turmoil we saw last spring? >> that has something to do with it. investor sentiment is incredibly negative around schwab. the stock is down 29%. today after the market closed rob -- schwab put in a

regulatory filing saying it is taking a series of actions aimed at removing costs and complexity from the firm. that seems to be a thermal -- a theme around wall street. charles schwab is integrating pd america. full integration is just taking place now. all the accounts should be swapped over by labor day weekend. annual savings of about $500 million will include staffing costs, professional services and also real estate costs. cutting some corporate offices and renegotiating some leases as are many landlords right now in order to save some money and of course appease investors in that process. shery: bloomberg's vonnie quinn with the latest on charles schwab. the other top corporate stories we are following -- gaining

after it announced an all stock deal to buy earthstone energy for $2 billion. earth stone stock will rally on the deal. the 2 -- the shale older -- the shale drilling rigs -- permian says it will keep them running for now talking an industry trend to cut rigs after buying rivals. hedge fund sculptor capital says it has received multiple takeover bids higher than it excepted from rhythm capital. some of the offers valued sculptor at more than $700 million. it is said that they offer the company $12 a share topping rhythms 12 -- $11.15. more capital reportedly required to purchase subway.

the sale could be finalized as soon as this week. subway is one of the world's largest restaurant chains with around 37,000 stores in over 100 countries. we have more to come on "daybreak: asia." this is asia -- this is bloomberg. ♪ now hejust a future st ate. health happens now. ate. start your dna-powered health journey today with personalized insights from 23andme.

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events has reshaped china's energy system including the covid-19 pandemic. here to tell us what is next the sector nannan. how did china's energy market look in the first half of the year and how will it develop in the second half? >> china's economy is recovering from the pandemic. in the first half of the year gdp grew 5.5%. and the power demand grew as well 5%. domestic coal production and gas production are all picking up speed. china is highlighting security. domestic fuel production is growing faster than last year. more importantly the imports are

picking up speed. one because the commodity prices have dropped in the first half but also china has relaxed its import policy. if we are looking at the second half of this year, we think the growth will go even faster. one because -- especially the last quarter of last year, last year -- i think china will issue some stimulus package to boost the economy so we think the energy demand will grow even faster. shery: what is behind china's carbon price rising so quickly recently? will that momentum last? . yes. china's national carbon price has increased more than 20% after august. basically, the main reasons

behind the summer of -- are starting to purchase the china carbon quota. by december there could be a compliance. last compliance cycle boosted at the end of the cycle. the central government asked the entities to get there quota earlier. and they started to purchase there quota earlier. whether the momentum will continue depends on whether the government will introduce even more players into the national market. so far it is only the power sector. the government could enroll more

sectors like petrochemicals and steel than the price will climb further. otherwise we think the price will increase but not too much. paul: has the rising -- >> yes. china's wind and solar capacity has increased very fast in the first half creating a new record for solar. it added capacity almost equal to the entire nation in 2022. for the solar sector, the small-scale, which is residential rooftops, that has boosted most of the addition. because the residential price and also because of the falling of the -- price. but the large scale solar and

wind have gone up very fast. china has issued a policy. and after the pandemic workforce and local policy have changed and are getting better. supporting the growth in the last six months. shery: let's delve into china's ev markets. our next guest says china is no longer the haven for growth in the broader auto industry globally. bill russo is the founder and ceo of automobility limited. great to have you with us. how big is the opportunity still for growth in the new energy vehicle segment and that includes a battery powered cars but also plug-in hybrids and fuel cell electric vehicles? bill: this has been the only segment within the broader auto sector within china that is growing.

we had a peak car year in china at 28 point 9 million units in 2017. we have not had a year equivalent to that since then. the market has declined by 2 million in the span of five years. but the growth of the nav sector has offset that. this year close to 8 million units sold and last year nearly 7 million. all of the growth is in the nav sector. we are up up almost 42% from last year. shery: who are the brands leading the charge? and who are the manufacturers that missed out on this pit it -- pivot? bill: tesla sparked edge. new interest when tesla opened a

gigafactory brought the retail consumer to shop. the primary beneficiary has been byd which sells 37% of the new energy vehicles. tesla, 9%. four times the size. it is not a winner take all market. there are other brands competing in the space. shanghai gm's venture is number four. the concentration though, the five companies have two thirds of it so it is a very concentrated market. paul: what about the companies that you mentioned that missed the pivot? who are they and what will be their future? bill: multinationals. the only one on the list is tesla. volkswagen who has 20% of the gasoline powered segment in

china, only 3% of the ev. toyota, a most nonexistent in the electrified vehicle category. the traditional automakers, the ones that have dominated china for so long who had until 2020 two thirds of the market. they are only getting 20% of the market. it is an accidental -- it is an existential threat to foreign companies. paul: we are starting to see a few byd cars here in australia. how are they poised to expand internationally? bill: one of the consequences of the slowdown of growth in china is china has to prioritize exports if it's companies are to grow. more than 16% of the cars produced in china are exported already today. exports are up 60%

year-over-year from -- 68% year-over-year from asked year. -- from last year. chinese ev's are only 25% of the exports. the vast majority of the exports are still gasoline powered vehicles. byd, the market leader in china, is ninth on the list of export brands. they have not prioritized exports until recently because they have had all the demand they needed in china. tesla is the number one ev exporter from china. they export 34% of ev's from china. shery: we know the chinese market has heavily incentivized the industry whether it is on the consumer side or manufacturing side. how long are we expecting this to last? can there still be demand after the measures fade? bill: i don't think china will

take the incentives off a bet that it is winning. the gasoline powered market, two thirds of the cars sold are foreign branded. more than 80% of the ev's sold are chinese branded. this is china's opportunity to level the playing field but to take competitive advantage and it has done that with a combination of investments in supply chain, the battery supply chains which translates into better pricing which is why they are winning the early adopters and offering better value for the money for their ev's. the charging infrastructure, they have been investing for more than a decade. and also incentivizing and subsidizing through tax subsidies as well as purchase subsidies. leading consumers to consider those vehicles. that is working. the fact that the market is so concentrated is a long-term

concern. the fact that the market is not growing anymore will mean the government will continue to incentivized to keep these companies afloat. paul: bill russo, ceo at automobility limited. you can watch past interviews on tv . you can dive into any of the securities or bloomberg functions that we talk about and you can become part of the conversation by sending us instant messages during our shows. this is for bloomberg subscribers only. check it out at tv . this is bloomberg. ♪ my fit just right. for finding me looks that work for me and my budget. now getting dressed is so easy. -you just get me. -they get me. -you just get me. -and they'll get you, too. take your style quiz today.

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paul: financial crime experts at major brands including wells fargo and deutsche bank are warning ai imposter scams could take over the fraud economy. let's get more. give us a sense of the scale of what is going on here and how much is being spent to combat the problem. >> cybercrime in general cost the world $8 trillion last year in u.s. dollars. if that were a country it would be bigger than japan. it would be the third biggest economy in the world which gives you a sense of cybercrime overall. within that, in the u.s. they

were up 44% to about $8.8 billion. in australia around 3 billion still yen dollars. the numbers are huge and rising. when it comes to combating these crimes, banks are spending 8 billion at the moment and it will go up to $12 billion annually. paul: tell us about some of the ways that the technologies make it easier for scammers. >> ai is making jobs easier. scammers are using ai at different levels. you have something like social engineering scams where they can clone the voice of a family member to make an appeal to mom and dad saying, i need money. they are also using natural language processing tools like chatgpt to come up with a good sounding and plausible looking investment document. you are going on to google or a search engine and looking for an

investment, somewhere to put your money, up pops a scam site with a prospectus that looks legitimate and that will send you quarterly updates per normal telling you where your money is and how much it is growing until you go to take it out. you see you have lost hundreds of thousands of dollars. scammers are being patient. they are using ai tools and being patient. and sometimes also printing 3d masks to create ids. shery: that is so scary. why are the world's -- what are the world's banks doing to contain the risk? >> they are also using ai which is interesting at that and to help combat some of these issues. at commonwealth bank of australia, australia's biggest bank, they are monitoring 85 million cases in a country of about 25 million people.

you can see the level of monitoring. what they are looking for is different patterns of behavior to what is normal. when it comes to the way you move your mouse or where you are spending your dollars. are you trying to buy something from a new site you have not used before? things like that. but also one thing a bank in australia is doing is banding direct and immediate transfers to crypto sites. shery: we have more on the risks from the financial sector. be careful of those scams. we have the market opens in sydney, tokyo, and seoul. this is bloomberg. ♪

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shery: teck libby games on the s&p 500 despite the fact that a treasury selloff continued with yields at multiyear hides. paul: it has been a big day for earnings in australia. some fairly disappointing numbers and weakness in china has cast a long shadow over stocks. annabelle: absolutely. the question a lot of investors had is if the pessimism around china's economy has baked in or if there could be further downside. the start of trading for cash treasuries, there are some key stocks we are focusing on and one is softbank. the stock is not yet trading.

we will watch when it comes online because the chip designer filed for an ipo on the nasdaq. the details so far, it could be one of the biggest in the u.s. this year, the biggest since alibaba. barclays, goldman sachs, j.p. morgan are among those leading the offering. morgan stanley noticeably absent. the valuation could be between 60 billion dollars and $70 billion and we will watch for investor reaction. we will watch for live pricing on that. we have the focus on treasuries because yields on the 10 year around 816 year high and continuing to build among investors that rates will stay elevated even after the fed ends the hikes here that is the state

of play as we get trading underway. if you change, the moves in korea at the start of the day, what we had in treasury yields, the rise for yields could be keeping a lid on equity prices throughout the session and we will watch what happens in the tech sector and you can see that tech has -- tech heavy index outpacing what we see. that is after nvidia gained a lot in that session on wall street ahead of the earnings due out august 23. analysts predicting a 65% jump in profits. that is the state of play for korea. let's look at australia. it is an earnings focused. bhp coming online, down 1.8%.

it came out with a 37% drop in for your profits. a miss on what analysts predicted but coming down to concerns we see around demand from china, one of the biggest customers. bhp is the world's biggest miner. we are watching brent crude coming online flat. looking a little loyal -- lower for oil generally with concerns around china's economy. we are still waiting for softbank to start trading. no live pricing yet. shery: let's bring in our next guest who is referring -- reaffirming his cautious view, the head of apac multi-asset bearings. james, the spike in yields has been fast. what do you make of what is happening in the global bond

space, treasuries, and what does it mean for broader equities across asia? >> good morning. a few weeks ago the bond market disagreed with the equity markets. equity was hot. treasury was 3% level. i thought one would go wrong. we were not optimistic to start with because we felt the market was pricing in too much of a recession risk and firmly do not believe the u.s. would go into a deep recession. at the worst case, a slow down. so we were cautious when approaching 4% and now it is history. definitely with rising yields or yells at these -- yields at these levels are not positive or constructive to equity valuations and the level where

the s&p is now trading at the top of the p levels, we want to pare back most of our action -- active positions and neutralize most of our areas now. shery: given the stock and bond moves recently, how attractive does this make cash? >> a deep. i would not mind marking a lot of my cash into to your papers, making 5% -- two-year papers, making 5%. if that fear of rate hug surprised -- subsides i could benefit from price depreciation. so given what is happening in china and the overall sentiment on e.m. is not friendly so cash is the place to be near term. paul: in terms of china, when

you look at the stock market, is it investable right now? >> i doubt investors mow foreign investors would want to reallocate with funds into china for now. what i saw was in august so far [indiscernible] have sold half of what they purchased in july so it would take some time for them to come back. given the escalating deceleration in growth and property issues there, i really doubt valuation alone, which is always cheap, could induce investors back near term. so where we are most neutral on china, asia so to speak and overweight cash for now. paul: how do you anticipate

policymakers managing the turmoil around the property sector, now the shadow banking industry as well? how does this unfold over the second half? >> a lot of expectation is further loosening of policy, selective measures, using restrictions, promote lending. but time and again, investors are disappointed about the degree or forcefulness of the measures. personally, i do not think we will see any big bang measures because it is not what we expect from the administration in this decade. they still have deleveraging in their minds so they are unlikely to put a big bang on policies but continue to be very

selective and focused. so i doubt we would see a meaningful movement at the index level, but in certain sectors, they might start to begin looking cheap. paul: we want to look at another market in asia doing well, japan. the nikkei up right now. we have a weakening yen. do you anticipate any intervention from the ministry of finance with such a strong dollar? would it be a but -- bit pointless? >> it is effective on the transitional basis but i think a week yen would be friendly to exporters and that is how japanese exporters amid global slowdown but too much movement

either way would definitely cause disorderly trading. so it looks like if the yen weakens a few more points, we might see certain bankers coming out prepping a market that might see some action. but without concerted efforts, i doubt intervention would be that effective. shery: whether it is in asian markets or u.s. investors here, we are watching what is happening at jackson hole. are you positioning ahead of powell's speech and what should we watch out for? >> time and again, jackson hole tends to be a bit more beneficial to fx traders because they can move on the spot but for us, certainly a lot of hope

has been built on powell hinting short-term monetary policy direction. i doubt he will give any clarity . because if he pays too much attention to the short-term, it might deter their credibility on fighting inflation long-term. so i think he will probably repeat very much the same messages, staying with tight monetary conditions and we just need to be patient. paul: james, thank you for joining us. let's look and softbank. they are doing well. it shares higher in japan trading after the ipo announced a long-awaited regulatory filings so things are moving in terms of what is set to be the

biggest ipo in the u.s. this week -- this year. softbank will list on the nasdaq , arm. let's get more. some lofty valuations being thrown around for arm. $70 billion range. how realistic are these? >> right. softbank, arm filing did not reveal all the key numbers that we are most curious about, including valuation, but like you mentioned, there is a transaction between softbank and vision fund, where vision fund 25% stake in arm was sold to softbank unit four $60 million and doing the math gives us a

rough valuation of around $60 million to $70 billion that you previously reported. it is a bullish valuation. there is no promise it will debut at a valuation of 64 million u.s. dollars but it is the closest to what we have in terms of how softbank thinks about the value of arm at this point. but a lot depends on the market situation, so we will have to see how much and what valuation it debuts with in september. shery: if everything goes well it would be a welcome relief for vision fund, who lost $30 billion last year. what are the risks? >> china is definitely one of the biggest risks facing arm and its business. arm relies a lot of revenue

share dilution for a satellite firm and tech companies and one of them is arm china. the filing states if this relationship with arm china deteriorates for some reason, the access to the chinese market will be impacted negatively in a material way. and as you know, tensions between the u.s. and china continue and their really is no clarity on what could happen within china and businesses relating to china. so all of this uncertainty continues to hang over china business, as with any other chip companies, so that is definitely a section market watchers are observing closely to see what happens. paul: what does it mean for softbank? what are some of the other implications? >> it really all depends on how

much the ipo and arm debuts at the ipo. if it is as successful and to debut at a strong valuation as indicated, it would be very positive for softbank and a good chance to produce a lot more cash. we have a bunch of banks, about 28, signed up and involved in making the ipo a success. so far, everything seems to be proceeding positively as planned. but we will have to see if anything happens between now and ipo planned for september to see actually what happens of course. shery: the latest on softbank's arm ipo. still ahead, the bric summit in south africa is set to discuss

how to accelerate the shift away from the dollar. a preview with moody's analytics later in the hour. and next commit it bhp full-year profit tumbles 37% as metal demand from china weekends. details coming next. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ (upbeat music) ♪ ( ♪♪ ) woah. ( ♪♪ )

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shery: we are early in the asian session. let's see what is moving the markets. annabelle: we were just discussing softbank. we got the ship designer arm finally applying to list on the nasdaq. some key details are coming out from ipo, it could be the biggest in the u.s. this year in terms of who is underwriting it. barclays, jp morgan, goldman sachs. morgan stanley is noticeably not on the list. the valuation could be up to $70 billion. softbank is rising off the back and we are watching for further details to come through from the ship designer, arm -- chip designer, arm. australia, earnings focused. some big names reported in the

last few hours, kicking off with goals, the for your profit flat on higher costs. cost of living pressures continue biting consumers. woodside energy focus the stock a little lower this morning. this is australia's biggest oil and gas producer. first time profits rose to 1.9 billion dollars in the six months ending june 30. what helped that was the acquisition of bhp's energy unit and that deal and did last year so that helped the company offset the downturn in oil and gas prices. still in the commodities space we are watching bhp. the world's biggest miner. under pressure. well, you have more details on why. -- paul, you have more details on why. paul: that's right. we have mason croft.

a big decline in profit. we have a preview earlier. why have the numbers been so bad and what does that tell us about the company's prospects going forward? >> it comes down to commodity prices. even though the businesses have been increasing production, we have seen realized prices decline, down 80% for [indiscernible] . what bhp has is the big acquisition of oz minerals, taking on extra debt has caused finance costs to increase almost 60%. the ongoing challenge for bhp is even though they are trying to make that transition to more high demand battery type metals, [indiscernible] has been saying it will not be

until the end of the decade that they enter major production and it might take years before they recognize the valuation. shery: when it comes to the commodity prices, what can we expect in terms of chinese -- china's economy hitting the price of iron ore? >> we have already started to see the slow in demand to flow through to prices and it comes down to the steel mills in china struggling with profitability. at the same time new supply is coming through with all of the majors, who are pushing up production. so the demand imbalance will make it challenging for prices going forward. there is the possibility of stimulus. we have seen some monetary stimulus from authorities but for this to turn the needle on iron ore prices we would need to

see vre major policy announcements with tangible benefits for the steel pricing and so far we have not seen indications of that. paul: movement in the gold space as well today. how significant is the agreement by the regulator to waive through the approval? is it just a rubberstamp? >> the ccc deal approval was the major one. the foreign investment review board still has to come. we think u.s. company will unlikely have significant challenges. there are some local regulators in jurisdictions but we think it should be ok. the next major hurdle for the deal will be the shareholder vote in october. it has been unanimously recommended by the new crest board and all going well the deal will be expected to

conclude in november. paul: later we will speak with bhp's ceo in his first interview after those results. that is at 10:30 a.m. hong kong time. and meg o'neill will join us later for more on that half your profit. this is bloomberg. -- half year profit. this is bloomberg. ♪

shery: a lot is happening on wall street. at considers reshuffling executive ranks and goldman sachs explores the sale of a personal finance business they bought four years ago. su keenan the latest. let's start with goldman and the privet away from the mass-market. >> is the undoing of a major

strategy that had a lot to do with ceo david goldman's desire to push into the mass-market. the deal to buy united capital back in 2019. now goldman says we are currently evaluating alternatives for that business as we determine where to invest our resources and where we see the greatest opportunity. while the unit has a small part of the offering, it symbolizes the earlier efforts by solomon to expand the firm's business lines which are now being unwound pretty much. the purpose of united gave goldman an instant footprint into the mass affluent market. at the time, united had 220 advisors. it did not grow much. you are looking at the blue, goldman stock has clearly risen significantly under solomon's leadership but no -- but many

other financial outlets have talked about the internal discontent. a lot of it has to do with the foray solomon took the bank into to retail banking that did not work out. there are many who believe goldman should stick to what it does best, and handling the money for the richest of the rich. the bank has been pursuing the sale of green sky over a year ago, it bought it and now it is trying to get rid of it. if the talks are successful it would be another sign of how dramatically management has backtracked on this strategy. shery: and we expect changes that citigroup. >> ceo jane fraser is mulling over a major executive reshuffle as part of a simplification of the bank. people close to the matter say it has a lot to do with the upcoming departure of the leader

of icg, the biggest unit for years. that group, that makes up 75% of cities profit in 2022 would also be part of the overhaul. we are told he would break into three parts, banking, markets, services. fraser has talked for months about efforts to restructure citibank and it would ideally be to simplify things. shery: we have more to come on daybreak asia. this is bloomberg. ♪ wow, you get to watch all your favorite stuff. it's to die for. and it's all right here. streaming was never this easy, you know. this is the way. you really went all out didn't you? um, it's called commitment.

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annabelle: let's check on

markets. we are 30 minutes into the trading session for tokyo and is sydney and what is standing up -- standing out is the flows in tech stock and north asia is the key beneficiary. what is moving the most is the nikkei in japan, kospi, the taiex and taiwan pointing to a gain of .8% at the open. it really follows what happened with softbank, the chip designer arm finally listed for an ipo on the nasdaq but the other story is nvidia. analysts continue to operate price targets on the start of earnings do in the 65% jump in profit so enthusiasm is flowing into the tech sector and that is what stands out so far. otherwise, a continued focus around what we are seeing in bond yields. the moves higher.

hitting the highest around 17 years for the 10 year yield. you can see that reflected in the session today. what is interesting is when you look at what is happening with trading volumes, another low-volume session. looking at the turnover function, it looks at the trading volumes at this point, the dotted line in blue, are 25% lower than where they would be on a moving average basis so it really points to investor trepidation ahead of jackson hole later this week when we will finally have jay powell outlined the prospects around inflation and for rate hikes. shery: we take you now to thailand where the former prime minister is said to return to the country he fled into thousand eight after being ousted in a military coup. his and not -- his arrival comes for a parliament flea vote for

prime minister -- parliamentary vote for prime minister next week. he will be landing shortly. our reporter -- our correspondent joins us now from the airport. give us a sense of what is happening. >> it is a very big day for thailand. i'm at the airport in bangkok along with international media about waiting to see if the former prime minister will arrive in a private jet an hour and a half from now. authorities have provided -- provided space for his reporters. he has had 15 years of self-imposed exile and there are a few hundred people outside to show support for him with loud celebratory music and posters welcoming him back.

the party leader is expected to become thailand's 30th prime minister and we could see the end of the political deadlock that has been going on since the election in may so it is turning out to be a very eventful day for thailand. paul: give us a sense of some context. he has been in exile for a very long time. how much of the big deal is his return? >> 15 years is a long time to be away from home. the 74-year-old said before the election he wanted to come back to be with his family. it meant going through the judicial process. but it will not likely be [indiscernible] for him because he still faces 10 years in and after being found guilty in essentia -- in a

bit after being ousted in a coup. it is unclear if he will petition for a royal pardon or when he would do it or the terms or conditions around the request and in the grand scheme of saying the timing of his return begs the question if it is really coincidence that it is on the same day as the pm vote or how connected the two events are. shery: tell us about the vote expected later in the day. how is that shaping up? >> compared to the previous front runner, his odds are looking more positive ahead of the vote this afternoon. a major reason why is the

announcement that the coalition will include three major conservative parties and so they are unlikely to face the same level of resistance. in terms of numbers the coalition has 314 seats in the 500 lower house which means they will need 60 or so more senators to endorse him from the other house. we might get it new p.m. today if he wins. his government has promised to make economic recovery the top agenda but type politics is volatile and -- but politics and thailand are volatile and we might be in for more twists and turns. paul: japan will reportedly begin the contentious plan to

discharge treated wastewater from the fukushima nuclear disaster site into the pacific as soon as thursday. for more let's bring in our energy reporter. nothing ignites passions like the story. can we build context around it? tritium and caribbean both occur -- and carbon both occur naturally. and this discharge will happen over 30 years. has politics overtaken science? do people need to calm down? >> i am no scientist but if you listed -- listened to that scientist they say perhaps people need to calm down. the two-year study investigating the safety of the fukushima water release found it would have minimum to no impact on wildlife, on people in japan.

overall they said it is safe and within their standards. normal release across the world. when done in small doses it is safe and is a normal practice. the biggest reason japan is doing this is they are running out of space for the water. water has been seeping into the fukushima me -- fukushima plant since the disaster. they have to take it out and purify it with the process that removes everything except the slightly radioactive tritium. and then they store it in a tank on site. they have built up a lot of water over the next decade and they are running out of room. they would run out of room as early as next year so that is why they are starting as soon as

thursday. the fukushima disaster is more than water. it's one of the most complicated nuclear cleanup projects in the history of the industry so there are a lot of different things to do and in order to move the process forward, they have to get rid of the water, or at least start. they have to make room so they can do other things in order to decommission the facility. shery: whether fears are justified or not, the geopolitical backlash is there. what is the latest from the neighbors? >> the geopolitical backlash is certainly there. the biggest critics are china. the chinese government said this summer that the pacific ocean is not the dumping ground for japan to throw away waste. it seems almost every day there are articles out of state owned

newspapers saying this is a bad plan. they often interview specialists critiquing japan's plan. there are a lot of editorials and comments from the government saying japan should rethink this. south korea initially opposed the plan and sent experts over to japan to look at the equipment and now endorse the release plan as long as the international watchdog continues monitoring. they will set up an office in japan to look at the release over the next several decades. they did not just investigate for two years, they will be there for good to monitor. and japan has the backing of the united states and other allies that also normally do this sort of release so right now the biggest contention is between japan and china. it is a sticking point and something china has brought up

many times and will likely continue to do so and i expect when the water begins being released we will see statements come out from the chinese government, probably condemning the plant. shery: we will watch for those comments. still ahead, more nations want to join the club of leading emerging-market economies. moody's analytics discusses the collective cloud of bricks ahead of the summit. this is bloomberg. ♪ i need it cool at night. you trying to ice me out of the bed? baby, only on game nights. you know you are retired right? am i? ya! save 50% on the sleep number limited edition smart bed. plus, free home delivery when you add a base. 76% of 23andmeat health customers surveyed

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>> economically, the only reason why the group is not interested is because of china. china is the only one who has grown more than any of the assumptions we have ever made. india got close but russia and south africa have been, -- have been particularly disappointing. so there is an uneven group and without china and india, i do not think it would be that interesting at all. shery: jim o'neill, former

chairman of goldman sachs as set management discussing these economies ahead of the brick summit this week. let's bring in our chief apac economist at moody's analytics. great to have you with us. this action on -- acronym was coined a couple of decades ago. brazil, russia, india, china, south africa. how similar are the economies now does this grouping makes sense? >> they are not that similar now. back in 2001 when the term was coined, they were quite similar. china had just entered the wto and was just beginning the journey toward manufacturing and modernization and diversification of their was a great expectation that all the

countries would follow a similar path and great opportunities for foreign investment. the low cost of doing business presented great opportunities. but since then, china is the only one that has really become a widely diversified manufacturing economy. india was close, although not that much on manufacturing, more based on exports for high-tech services. it does not rely on exports as much as china does. and the other countries, brazil, russia, south africa are still commodity producing countries. the largest export -- exports in their economies and very different from china. shery: we are expecting discussions on accelerating the shift away from the u.s. dollar. we know that for years there has been talk about a potential common currency in bricks but

given the changes in how the economies have evolved, does it make sense at this point? >> it is hard to imagine a common currency could work for that group. the countries are very different. more fundamentally, if you think about it, if there is a common currency, there must be a central bank that issues it and manages monetary policy in such. to manage monetary policy across these countries that are so vastly different would be really impossible. think about where inflation is in some of these countries. china was on the verge of deflation. india is still seeing inflation above 7%. and their last ride was up, not down. -- read was up, not down.

the other members have volatile inflation rates. how do you manage that with one single monetary policy and what difficulties would that create in terms of fiscal policy country by country? it is a very difficult task. it is hard to see this happening at all. paul: so you describe it as not a hamad nudges -- hamman adjust -- homogenous forum. however several other countries are interested at joining the forum. with that still be manageable and what would that look like? >> bricks plus would probably be a group of countries that would probably like to get a little closer to china. china i think will always be in a sense the lead country in the group because of the size and influence as a lender around the

world. so i think it would be a gathering of a few of the large economies like china and india and a number of many small economies that perhaps are looking for ways to become more integrated in a global market that might be led by china or at least china creates the vehicles for integration in the global economy. paul: the chinese economy struggling at the moment. what do you expect in terms of magnitude stimulus, whether it will be moderate, targeted, or too little too late? >> so far it seems piecemeal. a little disturbing because i expect there should be some

acceleration of stimulus, monetary policy and fiscal policy in china that should help the economy. i think two pieces of the economy really needs support right now. one is the property development sector. it's important because it touches so many parts of the economy in terms of the financial system and household wealth and construction employment, demand for commodities, construction industry and such. very important. the key thing if support must be targeted, and that might be the direction china takes simply because the levels of debt are high in china, there needs to be away to support the property development companies in at least completing projects that have been started but construction is halted so housing units can be delivered

to households that have already purchased the units. that seems critical. the other part is providing some kind of the stimulus to consumers to light a fire under them to improve a little bit the sentiment among consumers and the economy. the saving rate is very high in china. it there is potential for chinese consumers to spend but the light has to go on in the sense that consumers have to be willing to spend the money they put in savings now so i think those are probably the most likely places we might see some kind of stimulus from policymakers in china. shery: there have been a couple of theories that the government wants to implement more direct measures to support the property market but others wonder if it is to stop the overheating of

the property sector. what do you think? >> it might be true that it is partly to stop overheating. it might also have to do with value of currency. at the same time interest rates are coming down, policymakers in china want to manage the stability of the r&d and that gets more difficult when you lower interest rates so the one year prime rate was lowered a bit and the five-year rate was not. five-year rate has more influence in terms of currency so it could be that it was an effort at managing foreign exchange rates. paul: steve cochran from moody's analytics, thanks for joining us. you can watch us and see past interviews on tv . you can also dive into any of

the functions we talk about. it is for subscribers only. check it out on tv . this is bloomberg. ♪

shery: we are just over half an hour away from the market opens in hong kong and mainland china. let's bring in david and go a

preview. we did not -- david engel with a preview. we did not get a strong lead. which way will china go? >> chances are down given the lack of conviction we have seen recently and we are not getting a lot of momentum going into the tuesday session. what is probably going for it, we are at a level where it has just been horrible and we are oversold in many cases when you look at hong kong, half the index is trading with the rsi below 30. the last couple of times we have had extremely oversold conditions like this, we saw a technical bounce in the index. i just did some quick math. the four times we have seen this in the last 36 months or so, we

have seen rallies of 8.5% up to 22%. i think it is our job to display the conditions of the market and this is where we are at the moment. it seems ripe for something along the lines. let's see what happens. paul: what else are you looking for when we get going in china today? >> we have some big earnings coming out. we have a nice cross-section of the consumption story. automakers has a separate note about a scepter to watch today on the back of news yesterday that china is encouraging more lending to support purchases. the market story, the asian market has done horribly the last two days and we have seen a

substantial selloff into the close. that is normally the future of a weak market and i imagine until days changes, overall we will be down. paul: david engel. that is it for daybreak asia. markets coverage continues as we look at the start of trade in hong kong, shanghai, and shenzhen. standby for bloomberg markets china open, next. this is bloomberg. ♪ when you automate sales tax with avalara, you don't have to worry about things like changing tax rates or filing returns. avalarahhh ahhh

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