♪ >> good morning and welcome to "daybreak: australia." we are counting down to asia's major market opens. shery: i'm shery ahn in new

york. u.s. stocks, struggling again ahead of nvidia's result. concerns over china's recovery. haidi: goldman sachs dials up the pressure to return to the office five days a week. shery: and china backs expansion of the brics block as xi makes his second over trip -- overseas trip this year. the session, pretty muted after we saw stocks falling in the u.s. new york session. financials and technology leading the losses. the kbw, falling to the lowest level since june. u.s. lenders, citing a tough climate. we heard from moody's as well. this is the eve of nvidia's results, following almost 3%. but this into context --

put this into context, it was up to hundred percent this year. we will see the excitement over artificial intelligence. the 10 year yield, at the 4.32 level. we are waiting for chair powell to speak at jackson hole later this week. oil, not a lot of movement. below $80 a barrel now. we are seeing more signs of supplies rebounding and a lot of concerns about demand in china. for more, let's bring in our cross as it reporter, emily graffeo -- cross asset reporter, emily graffeo. we had nvidia falling today after this massive rally in the broader textbased. >> they were following but they did hit an all-time high. they fell from that level. it seems like right now, the stock market is all focused on their earnings. perhaps there is a lack of other earnings news for the

equity market. we have in the s&p 500, up over 200% this year. analysts are open targets. . even when you look at the options market for nvidia, investors are paying a premium for nvidia to keep moving up higher in their stock. it's the only stock for which the largest 10 companies in the s&p 500 -- it is the only stock the prices of call options which are bullish options are more expensive than put options which are bearish. perhaps a sign that investors are really paying up for nvidia to even move higher after this earnings report, that being said, the bar is high here for nvidia. paul: let's look ahead to jackson hole now. what are investors expecting from jay powell's speech on friday? >> it'll be interesting to see

how the market reacts. last week, i was looking at the bond market and thinking ahead to jackson hole, maybe we will get a hawkish surprise from powell like we did last year. but now we've had such a big run up in treasury yields over the last few days. over 5% on the two-year. it raises the bar for powell to be hawkish, if he is just in line with the speeches he's already -- the topics he's already talked about. i'm not sure if we will get another leg higher in treasury yields. certainly of you remember last year, he had that eight minute speech, people were powell didn't get that and then we saw an equity market selloff, and a bond selloff as well. there's a lot of talk in my sources about the neutral rate. what interest rate can -- does not diminish economic

growth? perhaps powell will discuss the neutral rate being higher than it has been historically. paul: emily graffeo there. we will see how asian markets are shaping up. australian futures, in slightly negative territory. up a quarter of 1% right now. not a lot of change to the kiwi dollar. new zealand, trading for a few minutes now, not a lot of change. the yen, still very elevated. 145.88. let's bring in annabelle for a preview of the session. some interesting moves late yesterday. traders, scratching their head. was that the national theme? >> that is certainly one of the different theories as to why we saw that late they rally. to give some context, it was

quite an unusual session. sox, under pressure -- stocks, under pressure for much of the day. the hangseng rose 2% in the span of minutes. really quiet in terms of the rsi. the hsi index is at oversold levels. what exactly sparked it? that is the key question. the debate really amongst investors, the national divide is one of the theories that's been positive. we have seen incidents of that happening over the past few weeks, in the past as well. state backed funds buying equities to help stem the losses. another reason, down to reporting and local media.

hangseng had a story out on saturday saying that china could be looking at more concrete solutions now to the issues of debt amongst local governments. but whatever it is, of course, the other key question is whether we are going to see those moves sustained into today's session. he saw the futures board at the top. we are seeing stocks looking to open the day under pressure. we still have earnings, china vanke's for instance out, the tech sector as well. shery: and baidu, among the tech sector, talk about excitement over ai. >> that's right. it's interesting putting it into context. certainly ai is a key theme. to recap some of the numbers, reported premarket on wall street, with our revenue up the most in more than a year. sales up 15% to $4.7 billion. net came come -- net income also up 43%. what drove that was advertising

spend and consumer spending. you think about where we are with tech giants reported, we've had tencent and alibaba with good numbers as well. when you put it into context, the june reporting period, we started to see those economic indicators and china start to worsen. a lot of downgrades to gdp targets and overall weakness. this is quite good in context. if you can see that circlein red, that is the end of january. this is the point when baidu posted or announced or released its version of chatgpt, ernie bot, since that point, you can see baidu's been outperforming -- the line and white -- outperforming its peers. in yellow and blue. that's being attributed to ai.

baidu were the first to put out the answer to chatgpt. that also came up in the earnings call. the founder says the company's still awaiting full approval from beijing to roll out the app to the public. they didn't give answers to the specific timing of that. that's something else we are watching. paul: let's talk about the offshore yuan as well. 730 at the moment. where are we heading next? wall street sees plenty more downside. >> plenty more downside is what we are hearing from investors. they have urged dollar sales. we've seen the following up with major or big daily reference biases over the past few sessions. certainly something that's helped slow the momentum of the weakness in the currency.

when you put it against the broader dollar strength we have seen, strategists say it is not enough to hold the slide. rate cuts is the key question. the yield got has only widened with the u.s. it is a similar story in japan. could lead to further currency weakness. jp morgan, saying the fundamental case for weakness remains very much intact and they are saying -- of their strategists are saying 7.5 to the dollar could be in play if the yuan weakens past the low we are seeing in october of last year. shery: and pay part about says there is no hard line in the sand, so that could be one level to watch, 7.5. annabel joining us with the latest top market stories. still ahead, bmo family office tells us why it may be time to trim the big tech names and lock in healthy profits. more on their investment

strategies , next -- investment strategies, next. this is bloomberg. ♪

paul: we've got trading in u.s. futures underway at the moment. modest gains for the s&p. up by a couple of points. similar story for the dow and nasdaq futures as well.

the rally we saw a couple of days ago was short-lived. we saw some losses today. the dollar was off half of 1%. the s&p, weaker, the nasdaq, pretty flat. futures, nudging into positive territory. let's welcome the cio of bmo family office. it was a choppy day for u.s. markets. how do you view the. equityspace at the moment ? where do you put the money instead? >> it makes sense to keep a balanced risk exposure. that's one thing we have been encouraging clients to do. you see big rallies in certain industries or asset classes, it makes sense to pull them back from the top ends of the ranges. cash has been an awful comfy place to be the last few quarters especially as we have seen returns on it for the first time in a very long time. but also short-term treasuries,

intermediate-term treasuries. there's a lot of interesting places to put it. also the asset classes that are pretty unloved at that time, to see if there are any green shoots emerging -- chutes emerging. the other case might be to o bearish. >> the tech space has been loved, fueled by an ai inspired rally. take a look at this chart. we've got video earnings tomorrow. the stock, up to hundred percent year to date -- 200% year to date. you've got to wonder how much longer is the -- has the ai rally got to play out? what if nvidia does not meet pretty lofty expectations? >> the context is not necessarily from generator now. it's over the last few years.

there is that piece. it always makes sense to look at the short-term moves. look at how overshot or how full they might be and be willing to step back in some exposure. it's important to look at the underlying fundamentals. just because the stock goes up, if earnings have gone up similarly, you have that issue to support that stock rise, that proactive stock rise. what implications will ai have in the near term and longer term as well? it's all gained frontline prominence with chatgpt and other things that have come in the last few quarters. but ai and the uses of it in business have been underresearched for a very long time so the implications of that, we are early on in terms of how broad the implications of

that are. shery: give enough course the massive rally we have seen already in nvidia, some of those related ai stocks, would you still wager on them or would you be looking into smaller names that have been undiscovered or even some of those firms that could benefit from the advances in ai but not directly involved in the business? >> it's important to realize, to deploy artificial intelligence takes an awful lot of -- significant resources in terms of processing it. you need to know how people are going to adapt to it. it's not like the first technology run-up we had from 1995 to -- 1995 to 2000. the prudent thing to do was to look at the companies doing the infrastructure build up that were going to participate in the new era other internet was bringing on -- era the internet was bringing on. you are looking at that

underlying infrastructure and those kinds of companies that can lean into and are participating in it. a lot of companies have research analysts that give us tidbits about companies that look atways to deploy ai in their business. they have developed hundreds of business cases. there are firms that have not been able to get the kinds of technology, so have sent them to m.i.t. and other places to train their own, it is a fascinating way of looking at it. shery: any downside we've had so far in u.s. markets has been supported by the idea the economy's still pretty resilient, the american consumer is healthy, but then we've got macy's results today and we saw the credit card delinquencies accelerating. does that give you pause? how much longer will the fed have covered to delay rate cuts? >> i think it's important to

remember it's not just the consumer. the consumer is a big portion of our society and economy. they had some very strong numbers last week. we've also got some support underneath the consumer, with the chips act and the inflation reduction act. putting capital back into this economy and rebuilding the infrastructure. that puts in some support underneath. when it's a build out the -- we need to build out the manufacturing plants and update the grid to green. there's a lot of support under the economy for that but also a lot of headwinds facing the actual consumer and the resumption of student loans, higher credit card balances, higher interest rates on those credit cards, higher rent,

things like that. pivoting to the fed, the fed's told us they are willing to inflict some pain on the economy. so far we have not seen that pain. to the fed, i feel it has some wiggle room still, given the 3.5% unemployment rate. shery: where do you stand on financials? factoring in what the fed is doing with rates staying unabated for a while, at the same time, you have the likes of snp and moody's cutting some lenders. >> we do think there's that pressure on the banking system. it'll take some time to work that through. if you take it back to prior difficult times in the economy, the increased regulation, increased capital requirements and stringency around banks has pushed the lending activity to alternative sources. you've got structured credit,

lots of alternative sources for that, a lot of lending that does not happen through the banks. it will be a tricky period, if you will. segment of the country by segment depending on how sturdy the local economy is. shery: always great catching up with you, cio at bmo family office. we have more to come here on "daybreak: australia." this is bloomberg. ♪ or filing returns. avalarahhh ahhh

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paul: shares in u.s. retail giant macy's slumped 40% after a gave a week outlook for the current quarter. a significant drop from a year ago suggests department store customers are pulling back on purchases. simone foxman has more from new york.

>> mostly disappointing day of earnings for u.s. retailers. macy's, the country's largest department store, seeing sales fall, but not as much as anticipated. analysts were worried about the amount of promotions it has had to do to get stock off its shelves, also talking about how consumer credit cards -- its consumer branded credit cards are seeing more to link one sees than anticipated. the whole story, not helped out by dick's sporting goods, the athletics retailer has seen a strong couple of years since the pandemic, but seeing weakening consumer demand, also talking up the impact of theft. one bright spot continues to be the housing market. lowe's, seeing stronger than expected earnings, not as big of a sales decline as initially anticipated, talking about how contractors' demand is still

strong, people still going out and improving homes. maybe more importantly, building new homes amid a shortage of supply in the u.s. market. a mixed picture overall, as analysts continue to digest a slew of retail earnings coming in last weekend this week. -- last week and this week. shery: goldman sachs is dialing up the pressure to enforce its policy of employees working from the office five days a week. let's get more details from bloomberg's vonnie quinn. wasn't this effort already underway? >> it was. revenue producing employees have come back. it's been three years since the pandemic. the gloves are off. goldman, saying you must return. all employees must return. we've got a statement, we are simply reminding employees of our existing policy, we encourage employees

to work from the office five days a week. citigroup, jp morgan has had a strict three day a week policy for some time but also have been trying to enforce this. jp morgan this summer put in a policy they must commute five days a week. citigroup went as far as to tell employees this summer that maybe pay will even be involved if they don't start to comply with the policies. paul: this reluctance in the banking industry is being mirrored elsewhere. can we quantify it? >> the return to office has been below 50% for some time now. it's not an august phenomenon. we've known this. an australian company called xy sense monitors through sensors various work points around the world. particularly big metropolitan areas.

according to its data, more than a third of these work points are never occupied. we are talking about cubicles, desks, workstations, never anybody sitting there anymore. for those occupied, 14% of them were occupied for five or more hours in the day. the data shows meeting rooms r= -- meeting rooms or huddle spaces a being used. -- are being used. this perhaps a lesson for the future. at the moment, 80%, four out of five in terms of square feet is devoted right now to workspaces and cubicles and maybe that can switch in the future to get more use out of rents and leases.

paul: bloomberg's vonnie quinn there, live in person at the office. let's take a look at how we are doing in fx markets right now. the aussie dollar, not a great deal of change. the kiwi, also marooned below the $.60 u.s. level. we are waiting on retail sales data out of new zealand, due in about 20 minutes' time. the yen, still pretty weak. more to come on "daybre wow, you get to watch all your favorite stuff. it's to die for. and it's all right here. streaming was never this easy, you know. this is the way. you really went all out didn't you? um, it's called commitment. could you turn down the volume? here, you can try. get way more into what your into when you stream on the xfinity 10g network.

>> we are making good progress on the discussions. we are engaging constructively, we are listening and trying to really understand the areas of concern that our workers have. and i think the meetings are going well. we will just continue to engage in a constructive

an edge -- constructive image. shery: labor disrupts in austria that could disrupt natural gas supplies from early next month. outages in norway, adding to the volatility in european nat gas prices. >> it's been on a tear for a while now. natural gas, surging as much as 9.9% intraday for pairing those gains. this all while talks in the australian labor dispute are set to continue wednesday as well as having maintenance in norway resulting in some outages, all adding to market nervousness. the workers of the lng plant at woodside liquefied natural gas have been trying to strike as early as september 2 unless they reach an agreement during the scheduled talks which are expected to continue wednesday.

that is one more clarity is expected. -- when more clarity is expected. walkouts add complexity to the situation. what is the market most nervous about? you can see it reflected in that chart. the size of the potential impact. a strike, interrupting as much as 10% of lng supplies, as asia and europe prepare for the winter season and vying for a limited amount of the fuel worldwide. a lot riding on what happens with these talks. paul: there's concern about chinese demand, a supply -- a possible supply boost from iran. how is this impacting oil prices? >> right now we are seeing oil, wti as well as brent holding where they have been around $80 for west texas intermediate,

around $84for brent. oil posted a slight decline. this is coming amid lingering concern for demand for china, the world's biggest crude importer. the west texas intermediate for october, holding on thin volumes. that's what can lead to those declines. the market, really struggling for direction. absorbed exports from iran have surged about 2.2 million barrels a day this month. they are seeking to restart a major oil pipeline. talks took off in late june, but faltered in recent weeks. saudi arabia and russia have both been curbing output. even though there were concerns about recession and slow down

and rate hikes, it does appear that opec-plus' supply management strategy has been successful thus far in edging prices significantly higher. shery: su keenan, with the latest on the energy sector. let's stick with china demand and bring in annabelle. you are also watching the outlook for metals. >> that's right. let's kick off with iron ore here. that key ingredient for steel. essentially construction accounts for about 40% of that demand for iron ore in the country. the bets on stimulus that have come through from china, we were waiting for some sort of concrete measures to boost the economy. that's been one of the key factors that's helped iron ore to stick above the $100 level /ton for a part of this year.

concerns are starting to w eigh on the outlook for the middle, assessing where prices go from here. they are saying china mills, they are really cautious about restocking given the outlook. the property sector is the he focus here given the deteriorating outlook. property is a key part of that. paul: how about the other base metals? >> watching things like copper, aluminum, other key ones to watch, they have retreated from january highs with the economy losing same in china. that's really hit the margins at those smaller smelters, fabricators, dropping profitability, the worst we have seen in more than a decade. was going to be key is

industrial profits coming out later this week. that will set the stage for where we go from here. price competition is another key factor. we have not really seen it in china at some segments. industry has started to drop. goldman sachs, saying base metal stockpiles are near critical levels. another key factor is the traditional drivers of consumption have started to stall in the country. we are seeing that shift away into metals for cleaner energy sources. paul: let's get to some breaking news, we are getting more earnings out of australia. a busy week for earnings. will worth -- woolworths group, full year net income, $1.62 billion, just a little bit short of estimates. the final dividend per share, $.58. we were watching the dividend

closely. prior to this announcement, the earnings per share were seen as increasing 20% year on year. the price of basic household items has been surging in australia as inflation continues to bite. a strong result here. what else do we have? full year sales -- $64.29 billion was also in line with estimates. the net income figure, let's call it a meet, 1.62 australian dollars. many years ago i used to work at woolworths in new zealand. plenty more to come on "daybreak: australia." this is bloomberg. ♪ fabulous surroundings...

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paul: taiwan's elections in january will help set the course for u.s.-china relations for years to come. the foxconn founder's bidding for a -- bidding for the presidency. stephen engle joins us now.

tell us where you are and why. >> we are on the small island just about six miles across the bay from the major chinese city of xiamen. you can normally see it in the outline of the haze and the fog. it's very close. about 6.2 miles across the bay. it's always been on the symbolic frontlines. you can see the steel bars filled with barnacles. they have been in place for decades to symbolically repel any potential pla invasion from china to this island. that's why these leaders, the president, the kmt front runner will be here today to commemorate the anniversary --

the 65th anniversary of one of the biggest battles between taiwan and china in 65 years -- 65 years ago. they will be here, with a wreath laying ceremony and the like. the election, terry is not a candidate but is acting like a candidate. yesterday i got front and center with the 72 -year-old billionaire founder of foxconn, the biggest supplier to apple, and i asked him directly this question, let's play it. what does the next president need to do to improve relations with china? >> we will talk later. >> so, unlike a candidate, he is not talking much. he wants to wait to see the political winds. right now, it's sort of

a four way race. three individuals are running. the vice president is the leader in the opinion polls. the kmt candidate is trailing in opinion polls, he is number three. terry, number four. the problem and the dilemma is he could potentially split that kmt vote and that would hand the election to the incumbent party, the dpp. they are here because the proximity the island has to mainland china indicates they want and they need better relations with china, because their livelihoods depend on it. this was the candidate talking about the elephant in

the room, the threat that china does pose. >> i'm asking beijing to realize the continuous intimidation of using force to have taiwan except unification will have the exact opposite effect. the biggest common denominator of mainstream peoples will is 23 million people wishing for freedom, democracy, and peace. shery: when you talked about the people needing that stability and relations with beijing, what does that mean in terms of what they want to see in policies and in candidates as well? >> this island's predominantly kmt. they don't want necessarily unification here. they want better business ties with china because again the proximity factor, they are so much closer to mainland china than they are to taipei and the mainland island of taiwan.

that includes resuming dialogue, resuming trade, resuming cross-bay visits and tourism because the island depends on it. how important is the island to the election? 127,000 people live here. they sometimes play a lot of lipservice. a local counselor says they are caught in between the battle of two superpowers. let's listen to the counselor. >> being caught between taiwan and mainland china is just how taiwan is caught between china and the you -- and the u.s. that's the way it is. we are like an ant under the feet of an elephant being trampled again and again. shery: we were just speaking to stephen engle, joining us

from taiwan. the chinese president xi jinping called on south africa to join him in boosting the country's combined influence on international affairs. president ramaphosa hosted him in pretoria as a prelude to this week's brics summit. we have reports from pretoria. >> the 15th annual brics summit has kicked off in johannesburg. ahead of the major events, the south african president, ramaphosa, hosted the only state visit we are going to see this week with chinese president xi jinping. this is an important meeting for the two leaders and countries. it is the 25th anniversary of these countries celebrating their diplomatic relationship. the two leaders are talking about how to enhance their trade relationships and expand collaboration and trade on a number of sectors from mining to agriculture and textiles. >> i'm ready to make a joint effort with president ramaphosa

in a strategic partnership. >> for the rest of the week, the two leaders will be meeting on behalf of their roles as leaders of two of the five brics nations to talk about a number of agenda items, including potentially expansion, deepening trade with their own local currencies, and also enhancing their voice on multilateral stages and forums. bloomberg news. shery: our next guest says the brics group has been challenging key tenets of u.s. global leadership in recent years. we have the senior fellow with the rising power alliance's project from tufts university, joining us from boston. great to have you with us. how is the brics group doing this? >> thank you so much for having me. what we have seen initially with the brics group when it started,

it was about new ideas and not ideologies. now as we have greater attentions among major power -- tensions among major powers, we see challenges, in terms of thinking about white house's policy on ukraine and basically brics providing diplomatic and economic ways out in a way for russia. another area that's very much on the agenda is the question of de-dollarization and what means in terms of the u.s. economic power. shery: are you talking about all of these efforts coming from individual countries, instead of the grouping as a block? it seems far-fetched to think this has anything to do with coordination or them acting as a block, which really has not happens in the last few years, their influence on the global state has not really been felt

as much. -- stage has not really been felt as much. >> as a block, it was always a strategic partnership that's developed around industrial development, finance, agriculture, and such agendas. right now, they are at the position where they are under pressure to deliver. on the one hand, the policy coordination is happening, but their future is not really clear. what i mean in terms of the implications for the u.s., the u.s. has always had -- what is the russia policy? what is the china policy? now the question is, what is the geopolitical implication in dealing with brics as a group? especially if we have a situation where the group itself expands and becomes more anti-u.s. in its narratives, which would be in a way the

mission when it originally started. paul: a bit expands, the group is not homogenous at the moment. if more members are added -- perhaps you want to ask the question on my behalf, shery? shery: we were talking about how manageable the block is as a group. do you still have us? it seems we don't have the senior fellow from tufts university, we were discussing the bricks summer happening right now in south africa. we have more ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪

paul: just getting some data across the terminal in the past few minutes, it is retail sales for new zealand for the second quarter. a little bit of weakness there, contracting by 1%. a little bit more than the .4% that was expected. the figures for the quarter, also getting revised down. we saw a contraction in

the first quarter, a 1.6% contraction. still the negative territory in the second quarter, perhaps more so than the market was anticipating. not a great deal of change to the kiwi dollar. still 59.43 versus the greenback. ceo will reveal says -- al rabil sayd the u.s. economy will experience a hard landing and the fed has already gone too far. >> i am still in the hard landing camp. i think the reality is we have already landed. core inflation is down to 3% plus. core inflation minus shelter is down to 1%. the reality in my view is we have already landed and the fed will do what it has historically done. it is way too late to get started, and they will go too far. i believe they have already gone too far. we will see what powell

says on friday, what happens in september. we've got 70 trillion of household, 12 trillion of mortgage debt, 1.6 trillion of auto debt, a trillion plus of student debt which is going to have to start paying on the debt sometime soon, so we are a consumer driven economy and we are in for a rough road ahead. >>'s big enough the rough road ahead, you look at the -- >> speaking of the rough road ahead, you look at the handle on the 10 year and the trajectory of rates, what else has to break as rates stay this elevated? where has the market not yet seen pain that you expect? >> you were talking about the regional banking downgrade. we are very close to that. we've got a big real estate equity business. we've got maturities coming in the next 18 months. that is going to be difficult

to do in an illiquid environment. private quite -- private credit and private equity is coming in and filling some of that gap, but there is a lot of mortgage debt that has to be refinanced and those rates are a lot higher. a lot of those excel spreadsheets just don't work. >> what about the default rates here? we have seen defaults start to hit the market but nothing so crazy yet. do you think there will be significant distress? you have a major name in some of this real estate distress. at one point do you find assets that are cheap enough to buy? >> i have lived through 1988, 2008, the pandemic, i've been through a number of different crises. i don't see capitulation yet. it is a lagging indicator. the issue is that you've got a 12 month lag on shelter being factored into the inflationary dynamics. i i think we are going to see capitulation and prices that

are interesting and private credit and realistic credit get really interesting from a buyer perspective later this year and into the first half of next year. shery: some real estate advise from jane anderson. here are some of the other corporate stories we are following. the former head of jp morgan's pressures metals desk -- precious metals desk has been sent to prison. they were both convicted on spoofing, the act of placing fake orders in a bid to manipulate prices. securities international will pay a 30 5 million-dollar fines or of the u.s. government over securities fraud dating back to 2009. the government investigation found the firm misrepresented the facts. the company had previously paid over $20 million to victims as part of a settlement with the sec. coming up in the next hour,

hear why charles schwab believes china can avoid associated financial contagion. plus the asian development bank's tells us how the insurance sector can be a game changer in climate risk management. that's it for "daybreak: australia." "daybreak: asia" is next. this is bloomberg. ♪

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shery: you are watching they back asia. annabelle: we are counting down