>> welcome to "bloomberg markets." i matt miller. let's start with a check of what is going on in the markets at this hour. the s&p 500 is gaining almost one full percent right now. tech stocks lead the way. we are going to show you a picture of tech specifically in a moment but look at the 10 year yield, falling 12 basis points as investors pile into this debt . just two sessions ago we had 434, the highest level on the 10 year since 2007.

we have seen some big gains and it looks like investors want those returns. they are buying these bonds. bloomberg u.s. dollar index coming down about .3%, 12:37, a relatively high level, not the case for oil. it continues to fall further. another $.60 to 78 96, dime extrude off well below $80 per barrel. even as inventories come in light, we saw draw according to the iea. let's take a look at the nasdaq 100. we are all focused on tack, waiting for the all-important nvidia earnings after the bell. they are already up, nvidia shares more than 200%, year to date. they have tripled to $1.1 trillion in market cap. at the bottom, you see nvidia trading 2% up, 465 point 31. all the analysts we say say the expectations are so high that they really need a strong beat to power the stock further.

amd right now up 2.5%, netflix up 4.5%, being driven by belief that the crackdown on password sharing is going to continue to drive subscriber growth. here the top, the nasdaq 100 gaining 1.5%, the broader index getting a boost from all of the optimism coming out of ai. of course the ai-driven rally is the reason we are paying such close attention to nvidia. earlier we caught up with evercore's ralph schloss time to get his take on the ai effect. >> the interesting thing about ai is that, unlike the internet where you have these incredibly powerful companies that were created, the magnificent seven, i think the impact of ai is going to be more broadly distributed in already existing companies. so it will affect every

business, just like the internet did, but it is not clear to me that other than the chip part that they are going to -- there are going to be massive earth changing companies created as a result of ai. matt: for more, let's bring in the founder and chief investment officer at spear invest. ivana, thank you for joining us. give me first your take on what ralph was saying area i think ai, a lot of people are expecting will be the democratization of the market and help to lift a lot more stocks than just nvidia, though that has been the chief that a fishy area this year. ivana: thanks for having me, matt. i do agree the impact of ai is going to be much more broad than that of the internet and i do agree existing companies will benefit. however, there is a transformational change happening and a lot of companies will be transformed.

unlike most investors that are focused on the application layers, this would be companies like chatgpt or office 365, the application copilots recently introduced by microsoft, we are looking to find volume across -- value across the value chain. we are looking at the side with companies like nvidia, amd, looking at the player that will be the data infrastructure layer. this is where we see the most opportunities right now and biggest misunderstanding. third is the application layer and what these applications will mean for companies like crm's system, design software. a lot of these companies will be transformed we believe by ai. matt: that is the great hope. for now, nvidia is really the only play ai stock out there, right? even a company like amd which has gpu products in the

pipeline, they are not in data centers now learning large language models. so how great is the expectation and the risk really for disappointment in nvidia earnings after the bell today? ivana: you are spot on. the only place we are seeing real numbers show up is nvidia. we expect this is just the beginning and you will start to see as hyper scalars and cloud service providers invest in the hardware, the next leg would be them selling the hardware as a service to their customers. then a big ecosystem of suppliers will be selling to that space. we believe the fact we are seeing it show up in semis first is natural, semiconductors are usually considered to be early cycle. that makes sense that all eyes are on nvidia and all eyes are on nvidia data center segment area the corridor, expectations

are high. by side expectations are about one billion for revenues for this quarter and next quarter, so for the companies to do surprise to the upside, they would need to clear the market. however, over the past few weeks, there have been a lot of investors shorter term concerned about capacity constraints. so basically the point is there is no imminent amount you can because there's a physical constraint to how many gpu's can produce. as it emerged, the center has been pharaoh will but i agree expectations are high so they are going to have to hold some outstanding numbers to beat them. matt: if you are a hedge fund manager and have a couple hundred million dollars to play with today, do you go short nvidia just as a tactical move because the chances of them beating expectations are lower? ivana: we run a strategy that is

a little more long-term focused and nvidia is a top holding in our etf. we would not go short here because you are fighting against a powerful, long-term trend. if you look at our ideas, nvidia currently has the best risk will reward. -- risk reward. it is not have the high upside because we have seen the easy money made of the lows but it does have good downside protection because there are a lot of investors that missed on the trade and are going to look to enter if the stock is lower. with hedge funds, it is about risk/reward. it is not just about how much can you make or miss, you have to consider your game plan if they do deliver. matt: you were talking about all of the beneficiaries, potential beneficiaries of this ai i guess revolution could be the right word to use.

are there any stocks you think the market has overlooked that really have not gained in terms of price action that you will bet on? ivana: a lot of the cloud infrastructure space, clot has gone through optimization. a lot of enterprises went through this downturn -- as we went through this downturn are cutting spending and cloud bills. so companies like amazon azure is one where people did not understand really well the benefit of ai and how they're positioned -- they are positioned in ai and then you look down the value chain at companies like snowflake that is of year to date and they are still facing a lot of headwinds. so we need to be patient and wait through those headwinds but they are incredibly well positioned in ai. so as we get out of this downturn and this ai workflow becomes a little more clear and shows up in numbers, you will

see some of the stocks show some legs and full through. matt: great talking to you. ivana delevska there of spear invest, the founder and cio. she will be back with us after the close as soon as nvidia's earnings are released. we will get her insights when we have the results in hand. next, scott kelly of a toast joins us to discuss his real estate outlook as we learn mortgage rates hit the highest level in 23 years and office is big worry for some thinks it could be a big opportunity as well. this is bloomberg. ♪

matt: this is "bloomberg

markets." i matt miller. data on the u.s. housing market came through today suggesting real weakness could be ahead. joining us to go through the numbers is bloomberg's abigail doolittle. what are we looking at? appia: possibly news not so great for the real estate market. oaks have been wondering as we have been in this rising rate environment, when will housing take a hit. taking a look at the 30 year, average 30 year rate, it is now closer to 7.31%. that is the highest level going back to 2000. we wiped out more than two decades of low rates. analysts i have talked to say that could take a hit. especially going above 8%. it has taken a hit more recently. we are looking at the seventh week i believe, six-week of mortgage applications being down and if we go into the bloomberg terminal, we can look at the inverse relationship, not surprisingly. there is the mortgage rate at seven 13 percent, pending or housing applications at a level

not seen since 1995. that is incredible. a lot of folks are telling me in the existing home sales, one thing happening is there's not a lot of supply. people refinanced in the pandemic and have a 2% rate. who wants to buy house at 7.3%? who is that helping? the homebuilders. if we look at the homebuilders on the year, we are going to see big gains here and we also had new-home sales come out today beating the number at 714,000 versus the estimate of just a little above 700,000. good trait here. i think last year was a rough ride but those investors who stay patient with homebuilders are doing pretty well. matt: they don't have to compete with pre-existing home sales anymore because those are dropping as we saw from other data this morning. abigail, you are going to come join us, we are going to speak with caught -- scott kelly, the founder and ceo of aetos capital real estate.

they have acquired $10 billion of real estate and real estate invaded -- related investments. great to have you with us in studio. we were talking earlier this morning about the situation in commercial real estate and office but i want to get your take on housing. with mortgage rates this high, the highest century, what does that mean for the market? scott: i think abigail is exactly right, you have people that have low mortgages today that were put in place in the zero interest rate environment we went through and it is tough to sell a house subject to a 3% mortgage and buy new and subject to a 7.5% mortgage. that math does not work so you have a dearth of sellers from that perspective. in addition, people are generally concerned about the economy and, for most people, their largest asset is their

home. i just do not think, in relatively pessimistic outlook, which most every survey says people are concerned about the economy going forward and economic conditions, i think that makes it hard to make the biggest purchase of your life, if that is the mindset most people have. third, i think you will also have people putting off getting married to, that is coming later and later and household formation who want to buy houses or put off as well. so homebuilders also, remember, they cut back dramatically the amount of inventory they were working on during the covid period, so they are playing catch-up as well. but there are people that are sellers. their job is to sell the homes once they are built. that is the natural place where

i think you will see more activity. abigail: that certainly seems like the case with the new-home sales numbers. in terms of pain, we have not seen too much pain in housing. where we have seen pain is commercial real estate in a particular office that happens to be your specialty, you're from having more than $10 billion worth of real estate investments in asia and that is your specialty. but because of what is happening with office right now, there has been a lot of pain, brooke bill lacks other players that have defaulted on trophy properties. you think a big opportunity is ahead? scott: we do. we don't necessarily see it in office. probably office is the trickiest of all of the asset classes, but you do see a tough time in the economic cycle, and there are big cyclical -- secular and demographic shifts going on in the country where people are moving south, moving out of the high-tech states, out of california come out of new york, into texas and florida.

there are real estate markets which are strong, particularly in the residential area which is where we focus on apartments a lot in these growth margins. the secular changes, the fact people are shopping through amazon and shopping online, the fact people are not going to the office but three maybe four days a week decreases the demand for office space. secular changes i think are having a profound impact and are going to cause a lot, given the debt crisis that is ahead of us. abigail: let's talk about that crisis. between now and 2025, i think 1.5 trillion dollars on ac and bss coming so as those come, we talked about it for so your firm watches to see when they are, works to see what properties you are interested in, your kind of alone because roque field and others say they have seen a big

opportunity. i know in california the processes have started, properties trade at a huge discount. where you see it in the east coast? scott: i think it is starting. there is a process that it goes through before they try to work out the loans if you are a bank or insurance company, you work out the loan and if you cannot do it, they end up liquidating the underlying collateral. same thing with see nbs where goes into a service where ultimately the collateral gets liquidated. i think the big headline news is just how massive this issue is, how big -- you think about $1.7 trillion, in the next year it is 750 billion dollars in maturities. a lot of this debt is held by regional and smaller banks and so we think that is an opportunity. matt: and they have to pull back on credit issuance, right?

we were talking about this earlier, huntington bank sold that yesterday and so did a couple regionals, but a lot of them have been downgraded by s&p and moody's. you made a comment to me earlier about the great state of ohio where you and i are from but it is not just florida and texas that are beneficiaries of people moving out of high tax areas, there are gray cities in the midwest. scott: there certainly are. you have to be in the city -- and i know columbus is near and dear to your heart, it has government, university, a great medical center, -- matt: not just any university, the ohio state university. scott: yes, i should have said that. it has a business friendly environment so you have companies -- it is a great place to live, so you see cities like that really profiting, so they are not just in the south but they tend to be in the warmer,

safer, lower tax states, away from the colder, more dangerous, higher tax states. it is a very profound shift, which has -- there will deftly be winners and losers. you can just say everything is going to hell in a handbasket so by whatever, we think you need to be particular and there will be a lot of broken projects that need significant development, redevelopment, repositioning, asset management work, which is how we are positioning ourselves for the opportunity mystically. matt: great having you in the studio and things were coming in with abigail doolittle as well, aetos founder and ceo, scott kelly, talking to me and abigail doolittle about the realistic market. among the passengers of a private jet that crashed in

russia, this is according to interfax, citing russian aviation authority was yevgeny p rogozhin. is it possible that goshen -- progozhin has died? >> according to what the ap is citing, these russian news outlets citing that rough it -- this was a private jet and yevgeny progozhin does some to be an individual on the manifest of this private jet, going from moscow to st. petersburg. of course two days ago was the first time we have heard from him who was really exiled almost to belarus come a deal he struck with putin after the failed mutiny we had saw from the mercenary leader. this video he had put out talking about freeing the continent of africa, wearing camouflage and a rifle. we think he was in africa or this footage was in africa but we did hear from him two days ago in one of these videos but it does seem according to the

news outlets these are russian state affiliated news services talking about a private jet, business jet he was on, that that has crashed. so yevgeny progozhin potentially has died. matt: we should make clear that bloomberg has not independently verify these reports but we are hearing from russian news agencies and russian aviation authorities that yevgeny progozhin is at least listed among the passengers on private jet that is crashed. what was his relationship like most recently with vladimir putin? >> it was a difficult one because he led this failed mutiny. he had his troops on board to go right into the red square, to moscow, because he wanted to speak to president putin and it was called off. it was brokered by belarus leader, and what you had then was you had yevgeny progozhin no longer being the leader of the

mercenary group which for years he really was pushing putin's foreign policy weather in syria, he was the individual who was pushing putin's foreign via the wagoner group in these places. he has been living outside of the apparatus, outside of that closed a relationship with resident putin. president putin wants to do an investigation into this but then it became a moot topic, something they did not want to no longer discuss. what we are hearing now is the questions now are going to be what happened to this private business jet and how to get -- did it go down? matt: annmarie hordern, thank you for that breaking news report. yevgeny progozhin, reportedly on a private jet that has crashed. we will continue to bring you details as they come across the wire.

laszlo birinyi, created an analysis for money flow to determine the have to behind stock moves has died. matt winkler joins me now to talk about this. it is a sad day for those of us who work so closely with laszlo the last 20 years. he made calls ahead of the crash of the internet bubble and ahead of the rebound of stocks in 2009. what can you tell us? matt w.: i can tell you of all the people you can say are the patriarchs of the modern stock market, he is at the top of the list. he is right at the top because, as you say, very early on, long before there were exchange traded funds, he was a pioneer who brought to people's attention this whole notion of money flow and what it means to

individual stocks in the stock market as a whole. that goes all the way back to the 1990's as you say. laszlo was a great contributor to the bloomberg terminal. when it introduced equities for the first time, at the end of the 1980's, laszlo was one of the people who really help make it a product that was robust and sustainable for all the reasons i just said. he was also a great friend to anyone, as you say, who follow the stock market. he was someone who was quick to correct mistakes, somebody who was really just devoted to the integrity of market transparency. the biggest point is laszlo was right most of the time. matt m.: yeah. matt w.: one of the great, if you like, calls was coming out of lehman bankruptcy in 2008 in

the great recession that ensued in 2009. if you go back to that period, i think the low was march 2009 for the stock market. matt m.: 666 on the s&p. matt w.: just about everyone on wall street could not have been more bearish and laszlo was one of the few people early in 2009 actually who said this is a great buying opportunity, the market will rise again. and very few people believed him and he said that even though he had a lot of good calls. matt m.: those calls are what made him stand out. i thing my call and called him iconic clastic in our bloomberg story so he did not always run with the herd. matt w.: no, but the exclamation point to his colon in 2009 was this guy called warren buffett but a railroad in 2001 and that told you her things were going. matt m.: thanks for joining us on sort notice -- short notice.

matt winkler talking about laszlo birinyi who died at the age of 79. this is bloomberg. ♪ when you automate sales tax with avalara, you don't have to worry about things like changing tax rates or filing returns. avalarahhh ahhh

>> welcome to bloomberg markets. matt: let us take a quick check on the markets at this hour. it looks like we are hitting a session high on the s&p, as well as a session low on 10 year yields. buy price up, you'll down. we see the s&p 500 gaining 1.2%, being pushed up by tech stocks. 4400 40 the level and we are

seeing the 10 year yield which had risen dramatically, 50 basis points in three or four sessions, now down 13 basis points today. 41977, essentially for 20 on the 10 year as investors by the bonds. u.s. dollar index off by a third of 1%. still a relatively high level. crude coming down, still below $80 a barrel. $79 30 one cents. amber? amber: it is a buy everything day except for some retailers, we are seeing big pain especially when it comes to footlocker. they came out with an abysmal quarter, sales plunging. they cut the forecast and are suspending their dividend. in part, they are blaming a rise in theft. on the flipside, this is affecting others in the space. nike trading at the lowest level since the fall of 2022.

on the flipside, we are seeing positive signs. in the tech space, netflix is one of the best percentage gainers right now. there is a report suggesting the password crackdown is working. more people are signing up legitimately with netflix, you are seeing the stock rallying in kind. nvidia, while buying into a set of earnings that deliver fireworks tonight. matt: and earnings report we are all watching cl's talk about thr economy. fueling the narrative in the session today, earlier we heard from chris williamson from s&p global about the numbers and what they mean for jobs. >> in the u.k., 2013, u.s. stagnating.

stalled gdp contraction, so nothing major at the moment. you keep hiking, things get worse and you will get a q3 downturn recession. that will hit confidence further and cause a deeper problem. matt: let us bring in and along and ira jersey. not only have we had payrolls reduced by three hundred $6,000 after the fact, we had housing, new housing sales higher than had been anticipated. much higher certainly in a month over month basis. we also had an auction, 20 year treasury auction. i like to talk about. on the auction, what did we see? ira: the auction tailed a little bit, came in higher than anticipated. demand was ok and i think the

higher yields you mentioned at the top of the block has been helping to draw in some investors. certainly when you get a day like we have had today, some people who are in a fomo mode where they are worried about missing out on higher yields. why not get a few if you cannot auction? amber: it is coming on a day were economic data out of europe and the u.s. has painted a picture of a slow down, both on the manufacturing side. anna, how are you thinking about this? are we at the dynamic of bad news is good news when it comes to the ecb and the fed are not as aggressive? anna: i think bad news is good news only applies if you think the bad news points to a soft landing. if bad news points to an impending recession, i think everything ultimately will be down. the way my team has been thinking is we've and the jobs

market is softer than it seems for most of this year. also the so-called resilient consumption is just a mirage. people are basically spending money they do not have. they are spending on credit and later this year when credit companies pullback, consumption is going to fall. matt: we have already seen considerable credit contractions because of the regional bank crisis is a word that we can use in this situation. we are getting downgrades from s&p and moody's. when are we going to get the real results of consumers that have overreached and the fiscal spending taps being turned off? anna: credit ratings and consumers credit scores are very procyclical.

the widening and corporate spreads only happen as you start getting into a downturn, where the credit rating gets less anna suddenly borrowing costs increase. so our consumer balance sheets. credit score start falling because of rising delinquency, it is harder for them to continue to borrow. we are starting to see the early dynamics of a downturn but not yet in full-fledged. i expect by the end of this year, we are going to see consumer delinquency at levels you last saw in 2010. amber: let us put it altogether, this is all leading up to jackson hole, jerome powell speech on friday. where could we get a surprise and shock to the market? ira: a surprise might be given the mix of the data we have seen would if he was a significantly more hawkish than he was at the july meeting. that would probably put bond yields back up multi-decade hides -- highs yet again.

on the others, it would be -- i think it would be surprising if he said anything much different than what he said at the july meeting. not much has changed in terms of the dataflow, it is -- in aggregate, it is ok, we are chugging along. maybe we will have a soft landing, maybe we will not. there is no reason for jay powell having a couple weeks ago spoke to us to change the cone -- tone of the fed rhetoric. that means we're going to wind up finding some new range. maybe we saw the high of that range recently. we could hover between 4% on 10-year gilts for some period of time if the data deteriorates. we can wind up getting lower yields and seen a rally in the

bond market. matt: thanks for joining us. really appreciate your time. coming up, footlocker among the retailers cutting sales forecasts as many expect a slowdown in spending. it is our stock of the hour, next. this is bloomberg. ♪

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amber: this is bloomberg markets. time for stock of the hour, footlocker is the latest retailer to/annual outlook. shares are getting pummeled this morning. it is the worst day on record after pausing the dividend.

they are pausing it to ensure we have flexibility to continue to fund strategic investments. just like dick's sporting goods, they are blaming a rise in theft. matt: obviously, you could only steal the left shoe as a display model, whereas at dix, you can get the whole product. let us dig into the story with retail analystadrienne. adrienne: loss prevention is rampant. some people have called out more so than others. it is funny, i am thinking about a world where everybody is wearing a left shoe. what i would say is, it is definitely a pressure point.

last year, supply chain was a big pressure point. if we want to put shrink into perspective, i like to remind people that shrink pre-pandemic in a normal world is a low single-digit percent of top line. like 1% or 1.5%. certainly when it goes up a lot, goes up doubles, it is 100 basis points out of the p&l. at the end of the day, if they can get their arms around it, you will have that come back into the fold. it does take more cost in the meantime, but it is not insidious. promos are the worst longer standing problem here. amber: even with this issue aside, this is one story painting a picture of a slowdown in the consumer. adrienne: absolutely.

you've seen that from everybody. macy's reported, that is not unusual. even back and body works cited that this morning. that is what is happening. the fed hikes are working, this is how we get inflation to come back down. i think the bigger takeaway is some of the retailers have enough rate recapture and inventory control to recapture a lot of that below the top line. footlocker does not. comps are down 10%. matt: does that mean we will see more discounting? are the promos that are worse than shrink going to hit a lot of retailers hard? adrienne: as we like to say, so goes holiday. if you think you need some product now -- between now and the end of the year, promos are going to stay high.

i would say on a year on year basis for the companies, they will improve. what is going to improve is largely the amount of clearance inventory they end up with at the end of a season. front of store promos are going to be aggressive. they need to drive traffic. they have to get you across the lease line. amber: you are not recommending investors by the dips in footlocker, but you do have buys on nike been painted with the same brush. even dick's sporting goods. why do those to stand out as opportunities? adrienne: those two, in my world , we look for opportunistic bind -- buying events that may be transitory. we think that these are. that you can get into at a good average cost. then they become compound growers when the world returns back to normal area for nike

antics, we think these are structurally post-covid winners, stronger businesses than they were pre-covid. dix at a 10% margin versus 5% we covid. footlocker is going the other way. there markets were high single digit, no they are at 3%. every once in a while, you get these big macro events and they give you the opportunity not only to get into companies that are fallen angels, but get into good companies that have an issue at the moment, but at the end of the day are strong brands. matt: do consumers step down to dick's sporting goods? we used to have rei next to the dix at the mall in westchester. i would look at stuff and know i could go across the street to get cheaper over at dix. adrienne: rei is private. we do not know exactly what is going on. it is a much smaller footprint.

you think about the pyramid of target market, rei is the professional, the hyper athlete. they know the product, they want the best for whatever event they are going to play. you have got a lot of entry-level product all the way up to the very serious athlete. rei is built for more of the specialist. amber: before earnings season, you turned positive on the sector that you could not give away. has earnings season changed her conviction at all? adrienne: it actually has. remember, i had two calls. one was as we go into the slowdown and sales go away, the defense of posturing to the back half of the year. the guys who have the momentum

or are defensive. on the date of play, we know sales are bad, but there was going to be below the top line recapture in the form of freight recapture, promotional inventory cleansing, then their own self-guided cost minimization. we are seeing that happen. sales are not good, they are worse. that makes us nervous. a decelerating sales environment is not fun to be recommending stocks in. they are doing that with air cover, below the top line air cover until we get to the hopeful moment in the first half of next year when some of the inflationary induced pressure eases. amber: we have got to leave it there, thanks as always for your time. we are going to take a quick break. coming up, an update on reports out of russia about prigozhin,

this is bloomberg. ♪

matt: this is bloomberg markets. let us get back to the breaking story, yevgeny prigozhin was listed among the passengers on a private jet that crashed in russia. this is according to a russian news agency. sam green is a director at democratic resilience and joins us to talk about this. i am sure a lot of people will be dancing around the main question here all day long. did vladimir putin have prigozhin killed? sam: i will not do you any favors, i think you will dance around that question. we've been speculating that prigozhin's future might be deeply uncertain and he would have had reasons to worry.

he does appear to have perished in this incident. i am being careful with the language whether it was a crash or an attack. we do not know. we have not been presented with any verified or verifiable evidence of that at the moment. i think we ought to be a little bit cautious in our assessments. matt: i 100% agree. i want to repeat this reviewers, bloomberg has not independently verified or in any way verified these reports, which started with a russian news agency. interfax has reported simply that prigozhin's name was on the passenger list and the private jet for the passenger list has crashed according to the russian aviation authorities. we did not know for sure. they are only media reports. but prigozhin went up against vladimir putin and as a result,

he could find his lifespan significantly shorter. is that fair to say? sam: it is fair to say. the reality is he mounted what is difficult to describe as anything short of a coup. you do not really attempt to hand the president the head of his defense minister on a silver platter without sending the message you are not really in charge. that kind of activity was the kind of thing we would have expected to make putin very angry. he did keep prigozhin around for a while, he met with him two or three days after the mutiny. he spent a lot of time looking for others in the military brass and establishment who might have also been threatening to his power. but we were never really certain about what role prigozhin was playing in any of this, whether he was being given some kind of

retirement. he was seen online in africa he was taking the fight to al qaeda and others in the of the world. this has been the subject of a lot of speculation. prigozhin has also been very useful over the years to putin in a lot of ways. whatever has happened -- this has not been easy set of decisions for the kremlin to have made. amber: we still do not have confirmation, but it was the state news that reported in russia he was on the passenger list of this plane of which there were no survivors. what is the fallout if prigozhin is dead? sam: a couple of things. one is the question about what happens to his own empire. we know about his private military company that had been fighting in ukraine, also fighting in syria, libya. fighting in various parts of

africa in ways that the kremlin has found convenient, gives them a lot of plausible deniability, allows them to get involved in parts of the world without getting their hands to dirty. he has also run a media empire in russia and around the world that has been a tool of kremlin influence. what are the challenges since this began back in june is how did they push him out without throwing the baby out with the bathwater? without losing those tools of trade he had developed? so that will be one question, what happens to that system, that infrastructure? is there someone else who takes charge if he is out of the picture? the other question is, what is the message this sends to the rest of the elite? you would think if this is interpreted by people as an assassination, that could go in

a couple of different ways. it could make people very scared and reticent to stand up. it could also send the message it is now or never. this is a regime that might be seen as becoming increasingly oppressive and violent to people who had been allies. people who might not be happy with the way putin is running the country might decide this is the time to try and do something before it is too late. matt: really appreciate you joining us on these reports, i am glad we have restated these so far only reports, but we have seen widely reported that a private jet has crashed near moscow and prigozhin was on the passenger list. sam greene joining us from democratic resilience, but he is the director. we are seeing a continued rally in the markets, s&p 500 up one

point 25% and 10 year yields are at session lows. ♪ when you automate sales tax with avalara, you don't have to worry about things like changing tax rates or filing returns. avalarahhh ahhh wow, you get to watch all your favorite stuff.i's.

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>> good people of jackson hole afternoon. >> we are kicking you off to the closing bell because we have a stock market floating your session highs, some green on the screen, much-needed relief for the market. beyond the s&p 500, there is a bigger jump. on the eve also of nvidia earnings, the biggest gain this year so f