>> you are watching daybreak asia, coming to you live from new york, sydney and hong kong. >> the top stories this hour, asians stocks -- agent stocks. we are live at jackson hole ahead of jay powell's speech. donald trump will surrender in atlanta later this hour under charges of expiring to overturn the 2020 election. leaders are gathering for a summit. we will talk about tackling and the quality in business. >> u.s. futures, stocks fell to session lows and closed around those levels with the nasdaq losing 2%.

yields rose across the boards. we had investors trying to digest some labor market data. two-year yields finishing above the 5% level. all of this ahead of jackson hole. we are seeing oil reversing the marginal gain we saw in the new york session as investors try to digest a potential slow down. a little bit of a rebound in global supplies. right now, it is all about jackson hole. haidi: let's get back for the economic symposium. joining us from jackson hole is dr. frenkel: sanda:. -- jacob frenkel. the former chairman at. wonderful to have you with us. this is a beautiful backdrop. the point of a precarious point for policymakers as we get to this year's jackson hole.

so different to where we were last year. what is the risk when it comes to potential policymaking mistakes as we enter this part of the economic cycle? dr. frenkel: thank you for having me. indeed, this year is very different than most a situation last year. when we spoke last year, we said inflation is still very high. interest rates, still very low. it was clear that the fed and the rest of the banking community would need to tighten. we are in a very different place. inflation has started to recede, interest rates have gone to where they should be or maybe there is still a little bit more to go in the u.s., but basically the objective is there. i think it is fair to say the doomsday forecast of a hard

landing, a crash landing, have been refuted. the situation in this regard is better. on the other hand, there are so many new risks coming not necessarily from the monetary policy sphere. they are coming from the tension between china and the rest of the world. they are coming from the tension rising between ukraine and russia. they are coming from the situation of the financial sector in china in the banking community. they are coming from the fact that the world, in order to resume sustainable growth, cannot be completely detached from china so the effort should be to reduce the stress, to reduce the tension and steady as you go when it comes to the federal reserve. i think they have done a spectacularly good job. haidi: bloomberg economics sang when we hear from jay powell this year at jackson hole, it

will be perhaps more orchestrating a soft landing in terms of the tone. you just mentioned the scale of global challenges -- economic, political, climate -- compared to other economies. is it possible for the fed to take that into account with their calculus with where they go from here? dr. frenkel: of course the fed takes into account all of the parts of the global economy but its primary role at the present time is to ensure -- we have had high inflation for too long. the tightening has started a little bit too late. now, while the fed is in the phase of reaffirming its credibility, reaffirming its leadership when it comes to stability, all other central banks are marching to the same

tune. i look at the european central bank, the same story. they are tightening. they are making sure inflation is back within the target, below or at 2%. this is the main objective now. of course, it is not to the neglect of other objectives, but the concept today is that in order to achieve all other objectives and in order to help other policymakers using their instruments in the most efficient way, the fed needs to provide the environment of price stability and financial stability and this is exactly what they are doing now. shery: the latest data from the u.s., what does that tell you where the fed will go on the data dependency stance? dr. frenkel: i believe that the data dependency will continue to be an important guide but not in

a mechanical way of saying, the numbers yesterday were so and so so we should change our policies accordingly. but looking forward, not backward. the data dependency is the expected data dependency. the fed wants to ensure it is on the right trajectory and if it sees from the front windshield, not the back mirror. if it sees in the front window that something is coming, this would be prevent and anticipate and react to. shery: remember back in 2015 when janet yellen had to take that into consideration, what sort of unexpected defense from the world's largest -- second largest economy would lead to those to reconsider geico dr. frenkel: of course, the fed is

and will take into account international consequences of its activities and what is happening in the rest of the world. china is an important factor and today its financial sector is putting a lot of stress on the system. if you put together the housing situation in china and extraordinarily large debt in china, primarily debt that is off the balance sheet, those are the things that are of concern and everyone in the world is looking at it, including the federal reserve. we must ensure financial stability because that is key for a prosperous economy. shery: what does this mean for broader developing economies? we have seen in latin america some cutting rates given that their economies are slowing down. if you add the risk from china, not to mention the u.s. continues that path of higher

for longer, what does it mean for the smaller, more vulnerable economies? dr. frenkel: i am glad you mentioned emerging economies in latin america because for years, the industrial countries were trying to preach and tell developing countries and emerging countries how to behave and they always were coming from behind. in this particular, in recent years, they have been ahead of the game. they have handled the financial stress in many ways better than the financial countries. the banking sector is stronger than what it used to be. in a way, it is now a two-way learning experience and the industrial countries can learn from the experience of the emerging economies. what i would say is humility is now also called for. we have gone through so many crises, many that came from the financial sector. in the last few years, they came

from a completely different place. they came from health, the covid business, russia invasion into ukraine, they translated into food and energy. the business of the supply chain associated with china's situation. all of this together has had profound implications on each economy in the world but they all cannot be prevented by monetary policy. this is why, why humility is called for, but also an agenda item for the governments of the world to deal with a fiscal situation, structure challenges and, yes, to deal with the climate which has much more profound long-term implications on all of us. haidi: i wanted to end the

conversation by getting your views on the debate over government agenda in israel. i thought it was interesting that fitch made the case in its most recent report that these measures will not necessarily doom the economy. do you agree with that? they are essentially saying the drive to perform over the next four years might not be that strong. dr. frenkel: the judicial reform that was proposed would have caused harm to the economy because israel is in a unique situation. it was an extraordinary rapid growth country. it was the crown jewel of high-tech. very innovating, very dramatically attractive foreign investment. here comes suddenly the judicial reform which was not in the way it was described. israel does not have a

constitution so it is essential that the judicial branch of government is completely independent because otherwise, the government controls both the's legislator and judicial. there is a basic struggle today in israel, who will elect the judges? as long as the judges are elected not only by politicians but in the fundamental way that has worked throughout previous years, israel has been and will remain a thriving democracy. but by the same token, one should not be sanguine about it and recognize some of the proposals would cause a lot of damage and that is why there are so many very profound demonstrations in israel in a democratic way, trying to ensure that legislations that are weakening the judicial branch of government do not go through. i am optimistic about it because

the young generation and masses of people from all branches and professions -- academics, high-tech, medical -- are all recognizing that the secret for israel's extraordinary performance has been the thriving democracy. it is the only democracy in the middle east and we should make sure it stays as strong as it is. i am optimistic because of the large proportion of young people who recognize this matter. shery: jacob frenkel, thank you for joining us today. he is chairman emeritus from the group of 30. joining us from jackson hole. thank you. let's see how we are setting up for the asia market opens. annabelle: that count down to jackson hole and what happened with the wall street sessions. the pullback in stocks, stronger

dollar, all these factors will be playing on sentiment in asia today. two year yields moving a little bit higher and the japanese yen in focus because we are very close to the 146 level. we have seen dollar strength coming in for six straight weeks. in terms of what we are seeing for equities, that picture tilted toward the downside. we are still one hour from the open. 45 minutes for sydney and tokyo. and taking a look at china. we have futures pointing lower but one of the really interesting dynamics yesterday is we started to see foreigners coming back into the market once again. we have seen the northbound stock connect flows out of china over 13 straight days. we have been checking this chart regularly over the last few weeks. we started to see inflows for the first time. why exactly that was, i was

speaking with mark crane field and he was suggesting it could be from global sentiment improving yesterday. shery: we will take you live to georgia and the airport at atlanta where you can see former president donald trump walking to his car. he has arrived just now. he is headed to the fulton county jail on charges he conspired to overturn the result of the 2020 presidential election. this according to a post on his true social platform, which would make the fourth time this year he has been processed as a criminal defendant. you are looking at live pictures of the airport in atlanta as former president donald trump is now going with his motorcade en route to the fulton county jail. this would be another milestone for the former president and for american history.

he has not had to report to a detention facility for processing until now. he is already facing a similar federal election case in washington and unrelated criminal charges in new york and florida. we will be getting more live pictures as we follow the former president to fulton county jail. plenty more to come on daybreak asia. this is bloomberg. ♪ he snores like an angry rhino. you've never heard an angry rhino. baby i hear one every night. every night. okay. i'll work on that. save 50% on the sleep number® limited edition smart bed. plus, 60-month financing on all smart beds. 76% of 23andme health customers surveyed shop now only at sleep number®.

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haidi: an interest-rate metric has become a hot topic. let's bring in someone who can explain this to us. our correspondent is here. jay powell does not know where the neutral rate is but this is the fixation of bond traders right now. garfield: yes it is because they are struggling to work out how much higher the fed might go. it is interesting, running into the last couple of fed meetings where there were hikes, there were a lot of speculations that this would be the last hike, they would not be to go much further. if you accept the idea that the longer term rates, at least partly based on -- the level of the cash rate at which the fed

is not stimulating or tightening conditions, that has a big impact. if you are going to go much higher than where we are now, it is hard to square that with a long-term mutual rate at about 2.5% unless inflation is much higher than it now is. inflation has been coming down. if you do not think the fed is going to change, interest rates are going to end up over time, it becomes harder to see them going to much higher. . it also becomes a case of the higher they go on that rate, the weaker they will have to come down. you will bet on longer-term bonds to outperform because if the fed goes much higher than this, it will crash the economy because it will be too restrictive. however, if you think that r*

could be higher, and along period after the global financial crisis of 2008-2009, the fed and others gradually moved down some other estimates as to where r8 might be -- r* might be. there is the potential -- it is unlikely the fed will come out and say we will add a half percentage point to r*. they are more likely to say we think it will go higher. if it is to go higher, that is bad for short-term bonds because they can go higher because the fed rate can go higher. it increases the potential the fed will keep rates higher for longer and by doing so, it will not necessarily bring the economy crashing down. if it got higher benchmark rates

and are still relatively strong economy, that makes it harder to see some of the extreme -- that have been expected in all sorts of government bonds, but especially in the longer term. a month ago, investors were talking about 3.5% or 3% on 10 year yields and here we are back at 4.2% to 4.3%. haidi: garfield reynolds with that great round up. subscribers can find it online and in the bloomberg anywhere app. you can customize those settings. this is bloomberg. ♪

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>> we take you live to atlanta, georgia, where we are following the motorcade carrying former donald trump as he is expected to surrender at the fulton county jail in atlanta on charges he conspired to overturn the result of the 2020 presidential election. you can see live pictures in atlanta following the motorcade carrying the former president. this will be the fourth time this year donald trump has been processed as a criminal defendant. we have seen all 19 defendants in the case. they have been turning themselves in this week. we are heading to the fulton county jail, where the former president is expected to turn himself in in the next few minutes. let's bring in our bloomberg washington correspondent. what are we expecting today? joe: this is remarkable to watch this unfold live. a former president on his way to

have his mug shot taken. it appears he will make the best of it as we saw him get off the airplane with a big thumbs up. he is embracing this idea of the nation watching this unfold because it could lead to more fundraising, more support in the polls and maybe eventually the nomination. it was a couple weeks ago that he said one more indictment and i have this in the bag. this is number four. this is different than what we saw on the federal level. this will be a state run proceeding, meaning eventually cameras in the courtroom. haidi: we are hearing there is a request for the trial date to be moved very quickly. joe: october is what we are hearing. this was first suggested on the eve of super. if you talk to experts on this,

we have had a lot of former federal prosecutors who have been through this before and attorneys who say there is a very thin chance that will happen. delay, delay, delay is the strategy of the trump legal team. their hope is to put off all of these trials until after the election. if donald trump does become the nominee, that will be the goal -- hold this off until after voters at the polls, which could make things more complicated if voters have to make a decision if he becomes the nominee. haidi: we just had the first republican -- shery: we just at the first republican primary debate. joe: donald trump still won the night without showing up. this is the undercard debate with candidates vying for second. if you listen to the discourse, with a few exceptions like nikki haley, chris christie, most of the candidates were defending donald trump because they

believe they will need some of his supporters if he is not able to win the nomination. we will probably have fewer candidates on stage for the second debate in september. there were some moments but no real change in the landscape for the nomination. >> joe mathieu with the latest. much more to come on bloomberg asia. this is bloomberg. ♪ every business deserves a great deal. that's why comcast business is launching the mobile made free event. with our business internet, new and existing customers can get one year of unlimited mobile for free. it's our best internet. powered by the next generation 10g network and with 99.9% reliability. plus one line of free mobile for an entire year.

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>> we do have breaking news when it comes to tokyo.

a leading indicator of japanese consumer price trends. august year on year headline number coming in slightly weaker than expectations. 2.9% is what we are seeing. surveyed expectations of 3%. fresh food year on year, that number coming in at 2.8%. expectations of 2.9%. we are seeing that reading come through at 4%. that remains the same as the previous month and in line with expectations. inflation, we are seeing that modest easing continuing. of course we did see perhaps a little bit more of an easing according to some economists that were surveyed. the bank of japan said in july it is alert to the upside and the downside risks to inflation. we are starting to see the demand-side factor starting to kick in to make it harder to read the outlook going forward.

bloomberg economics thing demand is contributing to a significant push although supply remains the biggest driver. we saw earlier in the month that watchers -- policy shifts after the tweak we stop. forecasters looking at april potentially for likely timing for policy change. in terms of how we see the yen trading, holding steady. the dollar is seeing some strength, up about .1%. in terms of how the yen has been position, we have seen the japanese currency outplaying bond market liquidity. bond market liquidity in japan has shown an improvement but the yen could really be the determinant when it comes to yield tolerance from the bank of japan. haidi: sticking with central banks, a councilmember singh policymakers must be cautious in

their next steps as risks turned from forecasts to reality. he spoke to us from jackson hole about focusing on the data. >> this is starting. i can tell you that we will be focused, of course, on the numbers for the economy and inflation. following up on what has been so far the monetary policy transmission. it is already in the numbers. we have to be cautious this time around. downside risks that we identified in june in our forecast have materialized. this is a new version of what happens around the pandemic recovery because usually we have been surprising the upside. this is, in part, in my opinion,

because the transition of monetary policy is up and running. we need to take that into account. alix: that seems like a pause for november. is your vote a pause for september? mario: we have been data dependent in our decisions. there is plenty of data still to be made available until the september decision. we have a new forecast. that forecast will tell us precisely how we see this transmission of our decisions into inflation and the economy going on and we will decide in september on that regard. it is important to keep in mind that inflation has been falling faster. we have been successful in our

mission so far. it is probably too soon to call it as a done deal. we certainly like to focus on these numbers. haidi: bank of portugal governor mario centeno speaking to alix steel. shery: we take you back to atlanta, georgia where we will see former president donald trump arriving at the fulton county jail. this is on charges he conspired to overturn the result of the 2020 presidential election. he just landed a few minutes ago at the airport in atlanta. this will be the fourth time this year he has been processed as a criminal defendant. this booking will be another milestone. he has not had to report to a detention facility for processing until now. he faces a similar federal election case in washington as well as unrelated criminal charges in new york and florida.

we have seen throughout the week all 19 defendants in the case brought by the fulton county district attorney turning themselves in. the deadline for that was august 25, of course, and we have seen some of those who already surrendered, including longtime president trump lawyer rudy giuliani and his former campaign attorney sidney powell, an architect of the conspiracy theory claiming the 2020 election was reg. we heard from -- was rigged. we heard from former president trump on his true social platform claiming falsely that his defeat in 2020 was because of a rigged election, saying the evidence is irrefutable. we have not seen any evidence of voter fraud. we are looking at life pictures of atlanta, georgia and this would be the fulton county jail,

where we are expecting president trump to arrive anytime to surrender to be processed as a criminal defendant. haidi: we will continue to watch and bring you the latest. another milestone for the former president, even as he seeks to return to the white house in 2024. the death in a plane crash of a russian mercenary leader was an assassination that was probably approved by vladimir putin, according to officials who did not want to be named. he was aboard a plane that crashed on thursday flying from moscow to st. petersburg. the leader was a talented businessman who made serious mistakes. he led a mutiny in june against vladimir putin's military leader's. the group's alliance is asking six more countries to join.

saudi arabia, iran, ethiopia and uab will become full members next january. we asked brazil's foreign minister whether the bloc's expansion would upset the u.s. >> i don't think so. it should not cause any problems. it is a group of countries developing and have the space for political conservation and development. i do not see any reason. haidi: we have wall street closing your session lows. we will see the how -- shery: we will see how that impacts things. annabelle: certainly that big countdown to jackson hole on friday. they have been so thin over the course of this week with traders looking ahead to jackson hole. the other focus is what is happening in china.

we have been discussing consumer sentiment surveys, showing a pickup, also earnings. we are early in the season for china. 40% of the china index as reported so far. in terms of what has been coming through, it is fairly split between companies reporting a beat or a miss. so far, we have seen companies reporting and the next day we have seen them slipping. this chart taking a look at the different sectors, all the way down to utilities. out of the utility companies, they saw a drop of more than 1%. tech also under pressure. tencent, alibaba, real estate standing out, it has seen better news in the stock market. there has been so much pessimism in chinese equities given the macroeconomic indicators. the broader concerns around lack

of stimulus for the market. what else are we watching in the session? the earnings course. we are only 40% underway into the season. financials will be a key one over the course of next week. some of the ones that have reported include china construction bank. cnb will be out later. the focus very much on net interest margins. they have come under pressure. we are watching that key sector. linked to the property sector in china. shery: we go back to georgia. we continue to follow the former president donald trump arriving at the fulton county jail. he has just arrived and he is now expected to surrender, to be processed as a criminal defendant on charges he conspired to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election. we have more to come. this is bloomberg. ♪

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shery: leaders are gathering in new delhi for the be 20 india summit. among that -- among the topics ching tackled are keeping the future of work. our next guest runs the u.n. global compact. joining us now is ceo and

executive director sanda ojiambo . great to have you with us. tell us a little bit about the work your organization does and why this is important. sanda: it works to mobilize businesses around the world to work toward a set of principles we believe not only makes them competitive, resilient and sustainable but helps drive progress around the world and to address some of the world's critical issues. it has been a tough three years with the climate crisis, covid pandemic and the war in ukraine and its impact on economies, energy and the rest. we look to build a cohort of businesses that can drive through the challenge and contribute not just to good business but lead to a better world. shery: the kind of companies that are meeting at the b20 with

the transition of the global economy. sanda: how key are they? absolutely important we know no one sector can solve the world's problems. policymakers and civil society, it is an intertwined world. more and more co's are taking up the call and wanting to engage at the multinational level to make sure they can address it. business is a key part of the g20 discussions through the b 20 component. haidi: forgive me if i sound perhaps a little bit disappointed in the progress that has been made but i think it would be a reasonable point that we have to ask, given the acceleration of climate events,

the slow progress being made on other types of inclusion, is the question whether we will see meaningful progress on the corporate front here? sanda: the truth is it has been a tough three years, even before we came into the pandemic. some of the sustainable development goals we used to guide global progress in the united nations were falling behind. it is the midpoint right now and i have to acknowledge that it is news that gives us cause for reflection and a strong call to action that we are far behind where we need to be and that applies to everyone, not just a private sector but governments that drive national action, and policymakers, as well. there is need to take a fresh look to jumpstart or turbocharge our action. that is going to be a key part of the discussion in september, when we gather for the united nations assembly.

also part of the discussion and recognitions in the b 20. haidi: what is the strategy for galvanizing that momentum, energy and contribution at a time when -- economic times are tough? money is getting more expensive. we are seeing some of the most ambitious players like china struggling with their own domestic growth situations. sanda: absolutely. it is tough times around the world with inflation, the climate crisis, the nature crisis, societal inequalities widening. no doubt about that. it is difficult. the point is this is about our world and our future. business will not succeed when society around it is failing. there is a strong call for businesses to take action if they want to be resilient and sustainable for the long-term but it will require a lot. it will require bold leadership

to make the right decisions for businesses to look at how you sacrifice or balance between the short-term and long-term. it will require bold businesses addressing issues like the inflation rate, how'd we make society more livable? also bold moves by businesses to make sure we can ensure a living wage, not just a minimum wage for our workers? how can businesses be more inclusive and sustainable? we did a survey of over 2000 ceos across 180 countries and all the ceos said the challenges they are facing today are really external to their business. it is not about your product. it is about how you as a business leader are standing up in the face of key issues like climate change, geopolitics impacting business more than ever before. haidi: have incentives work or

are we at a point where we need to see stronger deterrents and penalties from government policymaking? sanda: we need a smart mix of both. i do not think we can regulate our way through all of the challenges we face at the moment but there certainly is an opportunity to look at how regulation can help shape some key issues we must address and must address urgently. a smart mix of regulation and good corporate behavior should get us where we need to get to. as we can see on issues like the climate crisis, where progress is painfully slow, we might need to take a much stronger look at some unfinished business about what happens with carbon and carbon emissions, where we give the incentives and the punitive measures so we can get back on track because we simply are not on track to manage the temperature of the 1.5-degree threshold. a smart mix really incentivizes businesses a lot more. we must put incentives in the

right places. haidi: really great to have you with us. we appreciate your time. sanda ojiambo ceo of the global compact. catch up on some past interviews you might have missed on our interactive tv function. you can also dive into any bloomberg functions and join in on the conversation. this is for bloomberg subscribers only. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> we do have japan surfaces coming through. the consumer price index accelerating by 1.7%. that is faster than expectations of 1.3% and an acceleration from the 1.2% we saw in the month of june. we have seen seven straight months of the ppi numbers slowing. a little bit earlier we got the tokyo inflation rate coming through. inflation in tokyo as a leading national gauge continuing to slow in august. all of this supporting the bank of japan's view that price gains

will moderate as we see falling commodity and import costs. the producer price services index number is stronger-than-expected at 1.7%. chinese banks are wrestling with a range of challenges as the economy struggles to find its footing. squeezing lenders margins and they feel further declines even with valuations even low. let's get more from our reporter. the current earnings announcements, can a turnaround sentiment when it comes to chinese banks? >> good morning, haidi. we have china construction bank earnings earlier this week. the indication from the construction bank is not that great. the bank reported a profit increase -- but a shrinking

margin. the net interest margin, which is probably one of the most basic gauges of a bank's profitability, the interest margin dropped by 30 basis points. from january to june, when things were not that bad, really expecting things to get worse in the coming months. haidi: we are not expecting any bargain-hunting? hideyuki: if you look up on the valuations, they are extremely cheap. china construction bank is -- 0.3. its dividend deal is almost 10%. nonetheless, not many industries are attracted to chinese banks at the moment just because the

outlook is so gloomy at the moment. at the moment, the nonperforming loan ratio is still low, about 1.6%. if you consider the fact that the country's biggest property is in big trouble -- you could only imagine that this ratio will go up in the near future. also, chinese banks are likely to be asked to help the overall economy -- the property sector, support consumers. that means, basically, profits are likely to shrink further. for instance, there has been a report that banks were asked --

very long debt, like 20 years. basically squeeze their margin. at the moment, very few people are excited about chinese banks at the moment. >> hideyuki sano, bloomberg senior reporter. these are some shares we will be watching in japan, south korea and australia. major tech companies could be sliding. optimism failed to spur a rally ahead of jay powell's speech. sony, a bid to advance the sound experience of its playstation products. a 4.8% increase topped analyst estimates. a net profit to a record $1.5 billion, riding a wave of

interest. revenue for the first half of the year beat estimates. asian firms related to cryptocurrencies could be lower following a slide in bitcoin. coming up in the next hour, we are continuing our live coverage of jackson hole. we will speak to kristin forbes about why she expects more performance this year from fed chair jay powell. plus, the croatian national bank governor joins us to discuss his outlook for the economy. the market opens, next. this is bloomberg. ♪

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>> this is daybreak asia and we

are counting down to the major market open ahead of the jackson hole. said chair jay powell -- the said share jay powell will be speaking -- federal reserve chair jay powell will be speaking. >> the devil is in the details. bond traders continuing to fixate on this mutual rate. there is a lot to wait -- to away coming out of jackson hole. annabelle: fed officials are focusing on the session. central bank is said to have done enough and powell set -- and susan told yahoo! finance we might be a place where we could hold but the open for japan and

korea has started trading on the bull yet -- the move yesterday was for treasury yields and dollar strength put stocks under pressure in the session. no surprises perhaps the nikkei 225 coming online 1.3% to the downside and still watching the japanese yen given we just pushed above the 140 six level with the greenback strength. japanese inflation figures, tookie ones came out half an hour ago, considered a leading indicator for the country but consumer prices fresh food rising 2.8% below 3% for the first time since last september, weaker than predicted. boj says price gains will moderate due to following commodity this year and into next but it is interesting when

you look at the core readings streaming out energy and fresh food costs still at 4% so it tells us perhaps there is still stickiness in a deeper inflation trend. that's the open for japan. the focus in korea is on tech stocks. traders shifting through the fed remarks we got from susan collins on the count down to what jay powell will say later. treasuries falling across the curve. to your yields above 5%. -- the two year yield above 5%. kospi and cause deck slipping. the dollar has been stronger across the g10 watching what happens with emerging markets but some traders indicated 1340 against the greenback could be in play for the korean won.

australia still has the focus on macro factors but earnings continuing to come through. west farm is a good barometer for the health of the australian consumer and we saw for your profit topping estimates with stocks weaker and watching brent crude because of a second weekly drop for oil given there are factors of improving supply we are continuing to see and sighing tensions between the u.s. and key sanction producers but also concerns around china's economy and lack of demand coming from them perhaps still with the focus on jackson hole. so let's head to jackson hole. shery: we are joined by a previous board member of the bank of england. thank you for joining us today. what are you watching for in this year's powell's speech

because markets seem to be bracing for perhaps the bluntness we saw last year about the economic backdrop is so different now. >> thank you for having me on. the conference will start with chair powell speaking weird we should not expect a repeat of last year. it was short insisting to come inflation is too high. i remember when he stopped talking i was thinking it was just the introduction and there would be more and that was it. a very short speech. this year if he talks about the current policy debate it is more nuanced so it could not be a short. he cannot just focus on inflation. it is a trade-off about inflation and uncertainty about what comes next in the economy, will inflation continue to fall, will growth slow, so much more

data-dependent mode, less certainty about what comes next and how the situation will evolve so it is hard to see that there will be a short speech. i hope it covers structural changes in the global economy and how it affects global banks. there are many different topics to talk about but it would be nice to see him returned to his successful speech in 2018 where he talked about how the stars are changing and how it affects monetary policy. shery: he could potentially dust off parts of his 28 speech. -- 2018 speech so how has the picture involved and why would that year serve as a guideline? >> the 2018 speech, the key theme at the time was in order

to set monetary policy you had to have parameters like you start where unemployment could settle without inflation picking up too much and you had to set the parameters and then you knew where to set interest rates. he expressed frustrations back then about how it was hard to know where the stars were, the perimeters and it made it hard to set monetary policy but the uncertainty then is much less than today about where parameters are. we just do not know now where unemployment could settle. we do not know where interest rates could to settle to balance growth and employment. so these structural parameters have moved. they have moved much more now after covid and the shocks to energy, the invasion, the structural changes will make it even harder to set monetary policy then even in 2018. haidi: and if you do not know

where the stars are going to end up it is hard to have them aligned and this will be a greenspan speech, not last year's vulgar speech. it -- volker speech. is it possible for the fed to work within the calculus all the risks you mentioned? inflationary risk coming from climate, weather, all the things we haven't started looking at yet going forward? >> they have to work within those parameters because that is the world we live in and they have to set monetary policy and make decisions but i think the lesson is they should not guide markets and say this is what we plan to do because there is so much uncertainty. they should do what they have been doing is keep options open, it will be data-dependent and we will learn how the economy

evolves and keep all options open. it could mean more rate hikes, lowering rates, causing, keeping all options on the table. make sense given the need to move forward in this uncertain world. haidi: how much does deflation in china export help measure economies given that we see the stickiest parts being wage growth and [inaudible] >> slower growth in china is generally not good for the global economy, especially if this evolves into a financial crisis. that it is hard to know how things will evolve or where risks are. but if china evolves into a modest slow down, it will take some pressure off energy prices and keep headline inflation rates down in the u.s. and make jobs suck -- make their job somewhat easier because as they wait to see the lad defects --

lagged effects of other rate hikes to come as long as there is not another spike in energy prices, it will give them more time to assess the impacts to hike so far and that is where the slowdown in china by keeping energy and commodity prices suppressed will make the job somewhat easier for the fed and central banks. haidi: how much emphasis do you put on the psychology of inflation? with consumer you numbers coming out of the ua -- the u.k. -- with consumer numbers coming out of the you pay, could they have an easier job? >> expectations are critically important, no question. the example of the u.k. is a good one. in the u.k., they had higher inflation then the decade before

covid than many countries so companies and workers were more used to seeing prices and wages go up so when there was this inflation, it became embedded more quickly than in other economies and now inflation in the u.k., core inflation, seven percent. wage inflation, eight percent, not coming down like in other countries and it shows that once workers expect higher inflation and companies do, it is harder to take it out of the system. so yes, managing inflation expectations is key. and for central banks, communication is key. so that is why powell speech last year was so effective. it was very clear. i am bringing inflation down. i will do whatever it takes. it was very clear communication. shery: we have seen several central banks already start to tighten, passively or actively through sales of government

bonds. what impact does this have on financial conditions worldwide, and is there anything we should be watching out for going into year end? >> i am delighted you brought up quantitative tightening. it's been going on in the background but it is an important shift in policy. two years ago at this conference i presented a paper are -- urging central banks to shape their balance sheet sooner rather than later and move forward faster than in the past and two years ago central bankers said it's interesting and that is so far in the future, we have years to think about it. fast forward to today, seven of the major central banks are already doing quantitative tightening or letting assets rolloff when they expire and not purchasing new ones. three central banks are selling assets on their balance sheet outright. it is early days but so far, so

good. it looks like central banks are shrinking their balance sheets. it has only had a very modest impacts on yields. most is through actual rate increases. quantitative tightening. we have not seen liquidity issues or problems in markets as central banks have sold assets they hold outright so again early days, at some point as sheets shrink there could be more issues but it is off to a smooth start. haidi: kristin forbes joining us from jackson hole, really grateful for your time. let's get to annabelle for a look at the early movers. annabelle: taking a look at the tech space, this sector is very sensitive to interest rates and

looking at what we get out of jay powell because this was a big debate, the nvidia earnings, blockbuster numbers yesterday that came through versus what we expected at jackson hole later this week and it appears the sentiment has shifted to the fed's speech friday and given nvidia's earnings failed to hold friday so today we are seeing tech stocks come under pressure as they did on wall street. one stocks standing out is neighbor. that -- never. that is south korea's social media. it has not -- it has jumped as much as 9% giving up gains today. these are crypto linked to names in asia and they are under pressure following what came through in the u.s. session and

we saw crypto firms give up rallies gained this year. there had been optimism with the bitcoin spot filing bts and these are under pressure is bitcoin continues to retreat freshly higher today but close to the 26,000 level and then a look at wesfarmers, a group in australia has large divisions including kmart so can be seen as a check on the health of the aussie consumer and posted its four-year profit topping expectations here, stop a little higher as we get underway. shery: coming up we hear from thailand's the central bank governor from jackson hole. this is bloomberg. ♪

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shery: bond traders at jackson hole. let's bring in senior reporter for fx and rates. why is the r* dominating discussions? >> it is the name of the game going into jackson hole. so what is the feds neutral rate for the economy? and what would happen to yields in the world's biggest bond market if there were any tweets to the r*?

one investor from a hedge fund in singapore said it is like the appendix, it seems to be irrelevant to daily life until it suddenly bursts on you are painfully aware of it. it is essentially the theoretical level at which rates neither stimulate nor restrict economy. if there is even a hint that the fed is revising the r* it could float -- the r* it could focus a re-think. -- force a re-think. shery: should jay powell weigh in on it? should he flag any changes to the metric from the fed's point of view? >> markets are not even waiting for it to happen. we have seen a massive shift in

rates as people are thinking of these dovish bets and rate cut bets early next year everything has been pushed back so there is the expectation [indiscernible] even if it is not within his speech he might be asked a question on the r*. expect violent swings. we have seen yields hit the highest level since the financial crisis this week and looking at benchmark treasuries are around 4.2% in a matter of days and that is without revision to any r* so expect a lot to evolve very quickly and it should be addressed at jackson hole one way or another. haidi: you just mentioned expectations. how do we expect the uncertainty? >> should there be any risk up

at all their will be investors just behind the [inaudible] the u.s. economy is well ahead of their peers and treasuries remain the haven of choice for loads of people and when you think about the 4.2 percent unthinkable six months ago because everyone thought it was done so how people would trade through this, probably just locking to treasuries and dollars at these numbers. haidi: we await jay powell speech from jackson hole. bank of thailand governor says there central bank are close to where they want to be on rates [indiscernible] spoke from jackson hole and says he is on watch for policy indications from the new thai government. >> for us, our goal is to try to minimize the impact on thailand

so we have been trying to ensure our buffers are quite strong and i think we are fairly well positioned in terms of managing if the fed were continue to hike or stay higher for longer as some expect. if you look at the bot, it has been volatile as of late but part of that reflects not just what was happening in global factors like the u.s. and the yuan but also what was happening politically and now we that we have the governor hopefully volatility will be lessened going forward. >> there are expectations you are perhaps close to ending the tightening. how close are you? are you close to equilibrium? >> we are getting there. as you saw from our last mpc, we

changed the language on policy statement. before we described it as trying to ensure a smooth take off and we feel we have done that. consistent with that was wanting to normalize rates in a measured fashion. we took out that to indicate we are at an inflection point and getting closer now to where we want to be so the objective is now shifting boards towards getting the landing right, sticking the landing. for that what we would like to see as an outcome is for growth to stay in the 3% to 4% range which is what we see as our long-term potential growth rate and also to get inflation in the target rate of 1% 3%. on the inflation front we are fairly comfortable we will get there. the latest out-earn's came out soft. the headline was 0.4%. we feel it will come back into range because there is still

upside risk to inflation in thailand, impacts from el niño. so we expect inflation to come back into the 1% to 3% range sustainably. growth has disappointed. the latest second-quarter gdp number came out softer than expected at 1.8%. so we will be revising our headline forecast for gdp in september with the new monetary policy report. we had a 3.6% number that will have to come down. >> might you revise your project -- projection lower given economic malaise in china? >> the latest figure we have is 3.6% so that will come down from the gdp out turns. part of the weakness, a lot has to do with the softer than expected contribution to

services -- from services, particularly tourism. tourist have been arriving but they are spending less than expected. part is fewer than expected chinese tourists. they tend to spend more. so we are tight about what happens in china. china slow down hits our exports like other countries in the region. and any kind of china slow down we expect will impact the export outlook and have implications for the revised gdp figure we will put out in september. >> thailand has a new government . the party says they want to disperse cash via digital payments that amounts to possibly $14 billion u.s., which is huge. will that translate to high inflation in the country? >> yes, if it happens, it will

no doubt add additional pressure to hide lit -- headline pressure in thailand but it is early days. it is early government and we have to figure out which party will be in charge of which ministry and how the cabinet will be, how responsibilities will be divided up and that will better indicate which policies are likely to be implemented and also the details about how and which policies and how they will be implemented, a lot of details are still unclear at this point so it is a bit premature for me to assess what impact of the policies will be on our own policy response. shery: the bank of thailand governor speaking from jackson hole. we have more to come on daybreak asia. this is bloomberg. ♪

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shery: risk off session across asia almost every sector in the red. information technology the biggest loser. samsung electronics leads to clients following the lead from wall street where we saw mega caps losing ground and nvidia reached record highs before the earnings optimism in that raleigh faded. -- rally faded. we will have more to come on daybreak asia. this is bloomberg. ♪ hi, i'm jason and i've lost 202 pounds on golo. so the first time i ever seen a golo advertisement, i said, "yeah, whatever. there's no way this works like this." and threw it to the side. a couple weeks later, i seen it again after getting not so pleasant news from my physician. i was 424 pounds,

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>> what i would expect him to do is reaffirm his commitment to

event 2% inflation target and talk about leaving rates where they are but he will watch the data, especially the september cpi numbers. >> we have had high inflation for too long. the tightening has started a little too late. so now when the fed is in the phase of reaffirming credibility and leadership when it comes to price stability. haidi: some of our guests speaking to us earlier from jackson hole. annabelle: the higher for longer narrative is taking effect on the session 30 minutes in. the bond space is a move higher we are seeing with yields in line with what we saw with

treasuries and the front end of the curve seeing the bigger moves that two year yield preaching the 5% bar. that leads to dollar strength and the dollar gauge has the right and rising for six straight weeks and currency weakness coming in in the session and the dollar stronger against emerging-market currencies like the thai baht. in the equity space again we are seeing a lot of red today as well pointing out the nikkei down one .5%, but tech stocks feeling the brunt of losses given the moves higher for treasury yields, nvidia is well blockbuster numbers but investors perhaps selling out because of the good news already priced into the company. the outlook -- we just had a line drop from goldman sacs they

cut the target to 555. it was 580 prior. let's change on. commodities looking weaker. looking at leading the losses so far in the session, material stocks down 1.2%. tech not far behind. this is a broad day of losses following through what came through in the wall street session. shery: donald trump has turned himself in at the fulton county jail in atlanta on charges of conspiring to overturn the 2020 election loss. let's bring in joe mathieu. what a day for trump. what is next for him? >> he is on his way home now to presumably raise money and watches polls rise if recent

history is a guide. he was arrested. his mugshot was taken. the sheriff has promised to release it. having seen the mugshots of mark meadows, sidney powell's, rudy giuliani, it ought to be quite an experience. he cannot to the camera for a few minutes and repeated it his refrain about election interference and he says the first election should allow him to challenge the results of what he calls is a rigged election but he is charged with running a conspiracy to overturn the results of the 2020 election with fake electors and a pressure campaign against mike pence and january 6 events. we have seen this in three indictments already. this might benefit trump in the primary.

should he become the nominee, we will see what it means for the general election. it could be very different scenario for him. shery: as you have spoken about previous instances like this galvanizing his supporters, do these charges or outcomes preclude him from returning to the white house? >> we have seen politicians run for office from jail and i do not think -- there is even a question about if he could even serve jail time. being indicted does not keep you from running for president. it might not keep you from holding office. but can he do both at once? and that means five things at once. four trials and what is involved

on a daily basis when it comes to a presidential campaign, travel, long hours, being with donors, it will be very difficult for his campaign to juggle these and to pay for it. he has been using personal donations to his campaign to pay for his lawyers to the tune of millions of dollars and we are just getting started with this. haidi: and we had the first primary republican debate. who was the standout? trump cap has put his support behind the candidate they hope will undercut desantis. >> ron desantis was center stage and had a difficult evening. i have heard mixed reviews throughout the day. he clearly was not bothered with what everything else -- with what was happening on the stage. he was looking for moments to clip for social media. nikki haley managed to shine.

vivek ramaswamy told the crowd he thought trump was the greatest president of the 21st century, which led many of us to ask, why would you run? haidi: joe mathieu joining us on this historic day for trump. investigators -- investigations continue in maui regarding the devastating wildfires that killed overall hundred. hawaiian a is in focus on the subject of lawsuits. the disaster might have been made worse by risk blindness. >> the catastrophe caused by the wildfire could have been avoided. like recent fires in colorado and california, they were natural and man-made factors. they shared the same failing. risk blindness.

we need to get to grips with what we know about this disaster. >> in 2019 hawaiian electrics said they would start identifying areas where the power infrastructure might be vulnerable to starting a wildfire, including flying drones over power lines. sofia: by 2020 -- >> by 20, it submitted a -- the official cause of the fire is still undetermined. utility says it is working with officials on the investigation but preparation for wildfires by the community and utility was incomplete even as similar disasters heightens concerns elsewhere. running through this is what is known as risk blindness. >> it is when people underestimate risk. it can be because they are looking at the past, trying to understand what can happen in the future, or because they are

overestimating their own ability to respond to risk. maui is a reminder that risk is growing and we need to be aware of what our risk is today. shery: alex webb reporting and you can see the full story on our bloomberg original youtube channel. we will be back to jackson hole and are joined by the head of croatia's central bank for his outlook on policy and inflation. this is bloomberg. ♪ 2mhealth customers surveyed reported taking healthier actions. more exercise. eating healthier. and simply getting more sleep. because they know health isn't just a future state. health happens now.

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>> we have to be cautious this time around, because downside risk that we identified in june and our forecast has materialized. this is an inversion of what happened throughout the pandemic recovery, because usually we have been surprisingly upside. haidi: that was the bank of pork trickle -- portugal. let's get back to jackson hole with the head of croatia's central bank. >> with me is the head of the

croatian national bank. thank you for taking time to join us today. we have been talking all day about the economy in europe and the u.s. and how everyone is trying to bring down inflation but the economic situation is different in both places. how would you describe the european economy now and croatia's place in it? >> european economy at the moment as we see in latest data is slowing down a -- down, which was expected. one thing to look at is how much the services sector will slow down, which was quite resilient. labor market remains also quite resilient. we have seen it did not feel the consequences of real sector slow down so far. so i would say we are in this position in europe now where the

economy is basically stagnating. croatian is doing a little better. we expect the growth of 3% this year. which is significantly above the average, but it is also something you would expect from the economy that joined the euro zone this year and feels the benefits of it. >> inflation has come down. some think core inflation has peaked. what do you think? >> i think it was mostly -- most likely peaked as well. it is coming down but very slowly. what we see at the moment is more signs of slowdown in economic activity than in inflation itself which might have to do with the resilient labor markets and still i would say healthy wage growth we see, part of it being still a

catch-up. and part of it probably being also some kind of inflation expectations induced. so the important thing is to look next spring for the data, whether we will really see a softening of the core inflation and inflation moving towards our target. >> do you think policy is tight enough? >> we are in restricted territory now. regarding restricted -- we got into restricted territory by rapidly hiking rates. whether it is restrictive enough remains to be seen and this is what we will see from the inflation data that comes. >> do you worry about stagflation? >> this is the main risk as you

rightly point to, we are in this situation will receive from the recent pmi's indications in the soft data that the economy will slow down. while we do not see that much in the inflation rates. however, now we have been through the summer season in europe where we expected that particularly services inflation would still be high and it remains to be seen now as we move towards the bottom whether there will be slowing down in the services, whether we will feel the consequences of the slowdown in the labor market which will be reflected also in the inflation data. >> is a slow down worst-case scenario or do you risk recession? >> where we are now it is looking like a stagnation picture. i do not see a recession at the moment. when i say that, i think about a real recession, not a technical

to quarter data off a very mild decline in economic activity. so i still think the soft landing scenario is achievable. >> if you pause or raise rates, you are very close to the end i would imagine either way. how long would you have to leave high rates in place? >> that is the main question, how long they would have to remain in restrictive territory that is restrictive enough to bring inflation towards the medium-term target and there is probably a trade off in terms of how high we go and relationship how long we have to stay there. i would say that sooner we bring inflation down, the better. sooner we bring it down, we will be able to cut sooner.

this is the way how i think about where we have to go. >> will you get to 2% in the next year? >> 2% is something that at the moment we expect to achieve in 2025. but i am pretty sure that by next spring, we will have a more clear picture about whether we are firmly on the path of achieving that or if we have to do more. >> you mentioned croatia doing better economically, growth of 3% is pretty good. you have a country like germany where they have had a stagnant quarter and contraction quarter. does it make it more difficult for the governing council to set policy when you have such divergent economies? >> we look at the eurozone as an aggregate. we look at the macroeconomic

data before making up my mind on what to do next in terms of monetary policy moves and we should all do that. >> we wish you luck. thank you so much for joining us. the central bank ahead for croatia. back to you. haidi: a great conversation. one of many from jackson hole. looking at fx action, the dollar continuing to barrel through the rally, now a six week of gains and gaining all as it appears the longest winning streak since may 2022 for the greenback and so much hinges on what we hear from jay powell at jackson hole. will it be a greenspan speech with opportunities for a soft landing? what will bond traders look to get out of it?

a lot hinges for a lot of currency pairs as to what he says a jackson hole. the euro has been resilient. it feels like the pmi numbers we had gives europe a chance to seize the narrative because as we see the six week rally in the dollar the euro has been trading -- training to the upside, the yen watching for the reaction to really the continuation of the inflation narrative before japan the tokyo numbers continuing to show reflation impact when it comes to the economy even though it came in softer than expectations but dollar-yen holding and the yen has become the central paint -- central point for traders on how they see that boj might potentially react given that the yen has been trading as kind of a gateway [indiscernible]

more to come. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ (upbeat music) ♪ ( ♪♪ ) woah. ( ♪♪ ) ( ♪♪ ) ( ♪♪ ) ( ♪♪ ) constant contact delivers the marketing tools your small business needs to keep up, excel, and grow. constant contact. helping the small stand tall.

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to discuss this and other stories we are watching, charlotte, what are we expecting the reaction to be today? >> we are watching a couple things that could potentially move market. we are hearing more from chinese regulators that they met with pension funds, banks [indiscernible] to help stabilize market and this comes after some efforts from regulators recently to support markets but morgan stanley moved to cut targets for chinese and hong kong stocks.

40% lower than early our projections. [indiscernible] less optimistic outlook and earnings today we are watching is how investors react to a company that dropped to good results for the second quarter after revenue grew fast and ahead of estimates and the sock can go either way [indiscernible] going into this quarter. haidi: what could potentially

change the narrative? >> yeah so with the recent slow we had for investors yesterday chinese onshore stocks [indiscernible] if we are looking at texts signals it tells -- technical signals a tell us selling could be overdone and recent session so going forward there is no one clear catalyst that could help turnaround the market but if we have more stimulus measures coming from authority or good earning we could see sentiment improves um marginally. haidi: charlotte yang with what

we are watching at the start of trading in china. jp morgan has won a ruling confirming leverage loans are not security. the bank had been sued after borrower filed for bankruptcy. this is welcome news for banks and private equity firms. india's adani group says cash profit generated from their infrastructure business can cover their debt in the next decade. $9.4 billion by the end of the march. shery: look at how futures are trading. a little upside for u.s. futures after stocks in new york finished near session lows almost wiping out a weekly advance and ahead of the speech

by chair powell at jackson hole and the tech sector is being watched broadly given we saw immense pressure is yields declined across the board, the two year yield in u.s. surpassing the 5% level and you can see the dollar strength we see some weakness in the offshore yuan and it you can see it is a broad risk off session and futures finishing to the downside. still to come, the global implications of the fed a higher for long goal -- the feds higher for longer policy. we are in jackson hole. this is bloomberg. ♪

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david: