lizzy: good morning, this is

"bloomberg daybreak: europe." i'm lizzy burden. asian stocks fall after a selloff on wall street. treasury yield stabilizes traders await jay powell's speech at jackson hole are on the interest rate outlook. ecb president christine lagarde will also take center stage today in wyoming as ecb governing council member warrens it is too early to consider pausing. >> when you talk about monetary policy, what i said is we have to be stubborn, even more stubborn than inflation. this is our mandate. we have to bring inflation down to 2%. lizzy: donald trump turns himself in, booked on charges to overturn the 2020 election result in georgia, posting his own mugshot on social media. happy friday, you made it to the

end of the week, and investors are nervous this morning. all eyes on jackson hole ahead of jay powell's speech after 3:00 p.m. london time. two year treasury yields back above 5%, and markets asking if this week's dismal data, the new narrative is high for longer rather than higher for longer. there are worries about hawkishness from powell. it is risk on risk off on equities after an ugly close yesterday. the nasdaq had its worst day in three weeks, dropping 2.2%. asian stocks followed wall street lower. the ai buzz is short-lived. we saw short jump for nvidia early in the week. nasdaq futures down 0.1%. for more on how asian markets are faring, let's go to paul

dobson in singapore, our executive editor for asian markets. why is the nikkei down so much? paul: it was a nasty day for the nikkei with that reversal. and video managed to end the day flat. japan is reflecting that turnaround in sentiment toward technology companies. it is feeling that drag. it tends to react with high volatility in either direction. in addition to that, we had the inflation data this morning for tokyo which is still stubborn, sticky measures. kind of the idea being at some point the boj will have to allow yields to come even higher than they are at the moment. and maybe that ratchets up extra

pressure on the japanese market relative to the others. lizzy: where does that leave the yen and that tokyo cpi print? paul: it is an interesting dynamic we have at the moment, the again -- the yen is weak against the dollar, part of that is the yield differential with u.s. treasuries, the gap keeps getting wider every time the u.s. yields go higher. the boj does not like it. we had comments saying at these levels the yen is not helping, it is a drag on the rest of the economy. what policymakers would like to see is stabilization and a reversal, hoping the fed will move closer to cutting, and that will do the job for them. if that does not happen, the alternative it's a z yields come higher, and except we will have to move further away from yield

curve control and maybe get towards liftoff to give the yen extra support to help the economy and give more confidence back to the rest of the financial markets. lizzy: as we look ahead to jackson hole, it is friday, we could liven up the end of the week with a game of bingo one homely time jay powell will say the words "they dependant." do you think powell will mention those words again? paul: bond investors are interested to know anyway the fed views where interest rates will be and how much of a premium will be embedded into the market going forward, and whether or not powell will mention it himself is up for debate among economists. either way we will glean some understanding from him of what

he means by data dependent, does every data point matter or the trend over time will determine the outlook? and what do people see and is the long-term target rate for the fed going forward? it has been lifting off of low expectations recently, and that has caused trouble in the bond market. now more of a focus that the fed needs to keep rates higher to keep inflation on an even keel. if that is the case, the market will embed a higher interest rate and risk premium across the curve. lizzy: thanks to paul dobson. i want to bring you a breaking line out of australia, woodside's union members have endorsed in principle an agreement with the company. this has been wreaking havoc in lng markets, the potential strike action. a deal was put on the table in

terms of pay and conditions, and it looks like there has been an agreement that will ease that worry about industrial action. woodside shares are still down almost 1.2%. the benchmark for lng is steady. this is built on the previous development rubberstamping, but big worries previously about outages that would have threatened 10% of global supply. it seems those have eased now. time for our morning roundtable. i am joined from hong kong and singapore. i want to go back to jackson hole, we are waiting jay powell's speech after 3:00 p.m. london time. two fed officials have signaled the central bank might be close to the end of rate hikes. you have susan collins, who said

we may need additional increments and may be near a place where we can hold for a substantial amount of time. then patrick harker reiterated the fed has probably done enough tightening, but on the other hand james bullard telling us and continuing the hawkish note he left on last week that the fed may not be done with the hikes. >> re-acceleration could put upward pressure on inflation, stem the disinflation we are seeing, and instead delay plans for the fed to change policy. lizzy: i suppose the compromise between those three positions is high for longer rather than higher for longer. what are you listening for later from jay powell? jill: you hit it earlier, if you have data dependent on your bingo card for what powell will say, you probably hit it. he has emphasized this idea to

look out for what the data is telling us on their decisions going forward. this is a tricky one for powell. we remember jackson hole last year, powell was incredibly blunt about the need to control inflation. we knew what the cycle would look like at that point but we are in this period where it has become this issue of debate over how you handle these high rates, how long you keep everything for, what you need to look out for. what investors are looking for powell to answer is, when the fed is talking about data and needing to look for data to inform its future decisions, whether that means one more rate hike or holding rates for higher than we may think, we need clarity on what the key data points are. how much are we watching core cpi gauges? what are we looking at with

payroll data and employment claims? i do not know how much clarity powell will provide but it will be about the new wants and how he explains this position. this is a speech we are looking for to chart the position on rates through the rest of the year. lizzy: it is my birthday tomorrow, i will take a gift for every time we hear the words "data dependent." we have christine lagarde do to speak at 8:00 p.m. london time, and ecb councilmember has said he is not convinced inflation is under control for a rate hike. take a listen. >> inflation is coming down, core is still sticky, so the next months we will get more information. it is too early to think about a pause. we have to wait for the next numbers. lizzy: what about all this

dismal pmi data from both sides of the pond? there is more faith in the idea of immaculate disinflation. jill: it is interesting to hear him say that because when you were looking at the euro area pmi data this week, germany had the most severe declines. we had seen it worst since the start of the pandemic in 2020. this is another difficult speech for the guard. -- for christine lagarde. it is hard to see anything but her being dovish on rates. pmi data out of europe, investors think the ecb will have to pause at the next meeting. it is difficult to see them distance themselves from that. as we look at the trajectory of what is happening in europe, it does not seem like there is a ton of room to continue to be incredibly hawkish. i would look to see something a

bit more dovish today, we will have to see what is happening. lizzy: thank you. from wyoming u.s. politics, the long-awaited mugshot is here, donald trump turned himself into an atlanta jail to be booked on state charges that he conspired to overturn the result of the 2020 presidential election in georgia. trump maintains his innocence. >> what has taken place is a travesty of justice. i did nothing wrong. we did nothing wrong at all. we have every right to challenge an election that we think is dishonest. lizzy: let's bring in bill, trump is back on x, the website formally known as twitter. this is him capitalizing on his infamy, isn't it? bill: absolutely. every step in this legal

process, and he has four separate cases around the country that he is facing coming out of 2020. he has used that to rally his supporters, he has used it as a fund-raising tool, and i do not think this mugshot is any different. he posted this defiant photo of him at the fulton county jail saying never surrender literally moments after he surrendered. this will be something that so far has not done any damage to him or his brand with his core base of supporters, and he is leading the republican primaries by 30 or 40 points. it is not a place he wants to be in but he will make the most of it politically and financially in terms of trying to get funds for his campaign, and he is using those to pay legal fees. lizzy: legally what comes next? bill: it is interesting, the

prosecutor in this case in atlanta is asking the judge to proceed very quickly with the next steps. they would like to have former president trump back in the courthouse by the end of october. originally the prosecutor was looking for a march or april 2024 date, they have moved that forward. the judge has to rule on that. it is not clear how the judge will decide that case but what is emerging is that many of trump's legal challenges in the cases in court appearances will bleed well into the 2024 primaries, and if he emerges from that is the leading candidate into the general election against most likely president biden. lizzy: let's look at what else is coming up on the economic agenda. at 7:00 a.m. london time we get the final second-quarter gdp reading for germany, the country's economic woes will be on full display.

you could see the second quarter stagnation revised downwards. the latest german pmi were so decimal -- dismal that traders pared back there bets so much so that they see a pause in september. another reading on the health of the german economy at 9:00 a.m. from the latest ifo survey. you may see more disappointment again. after 3:00 p.m. fed chair jay powell will speak at jackson hole, and we will have full coverage of that speech, as we have been previewing here on bloomberg tv. we have all the stories you need to know, today the lead on jackson hole, trump's surrender, and u.k. consumer confidence rebounding in august. you can find those stories and more on your terminal.

coming up, it is all about jackson hole. waiting for jay powell's speech. we will discuss that, next. we even have some taylor swift for you. and do not miss our interview with christine lagarde at 9:00 p.m. london time, 4:00 p.m. new york time. this is bloomberg. ♪

lizzy: welcome back to "bloomberg daybreak: europe." 6:17 a.m. here in london. traders away jay powell's jackson hole speech for clues on the rate outlook. i'm joined by our mliv strategist, mark renfield, what

are you expecting? mark: as you have been discussing earlier, jerome powell will not persuade people that rate cuts are coming anytime. he wants to keep people sure that rate hikes will stay higher for longer. he will not want to give that away. the picture is completely different from 12 months ago. inflation is no longer the big enemy, that has mostly been beaten, there is work to do. discussions with people like christine lagarde and global leaders, they will probably be among themselves thinking there were definitely big international risks to the story. europe has plenty of problems in christine lagarde will sound the most dovish of everybody because she will get confirmation today that germany will be in recession. the gdp data comes out before she speaks. the other pmi numbers in recent

german data has been horrible, so it will be hard for her to have a hawkish stance. she will probably tell people the risk of over tightening is the big problem for the ecb, and she will probably lay the groundwork, regardless of what was said earlier today, so christine lagarde could end up being the star of the show, she could lean the most dovish of all. powell will take a middle-of-the-road but he will be aware. he has seen big revisions to jobs in the united states, and there are cracks in regional data as well. he will know the u.s. economy is probably passed its best, it may hit a soft landing but the best days are probably gone. he will be aware over tightening is a risk for the u.s.

by the end of the weekend investors may come away with the message that rates have peaked, and will not be cut immediately but we are turning the corner where in 2024 that will be the story, lower rates. lizzy: speaking of the star of the show and u.s. growth, it seems taylor swift has been a boon to the u.s. economy. are you a swiftie? mark: we are having an impact in asia as well. i was reading how that would boost third-quarter gdp in the united states but we will get that impact in asia in the first quarter next year. we get a double whammy, we have coldplay and taylor swift doing concerts in singapore, sold out, hotel rates are through the roof. a lot of people are flying in. they centralize their shows in south asia around one place, so people are forced to go to singapore. the hotels are more than sold

out. we will see the pop in gdp in asia in the first quarter next year. if this is a trend where the big stars do make it shows, we have to get used to this, this may reappear from time to time in the global economy where you get major events in a short time, and it will affect gdp. it is a short run effect that will not last forever but people have to take it into account because it does impact the economy. lizzy: i won't tell taylor. it speaking up celebrities, we have the news that michael jordan has cashed in on his sale of the charlotte hornets last month, this month, actually. he is worth $3.5 billion, and climbing the ladder. not only the greatest ask able player of all time, but the richest gm.

thank you to mark renfield for that analysis. it is jackson hole friday, we will talk about it all morning in the run-up to our exclusive interview with the ecb president, christine lagarde, at 9:00 p.m. london time. we will be bringing you jay powell's speech after 3:00 p.m. investors are looking ahead to the future outlook for u.s. rates. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> this is just starting but i can tell you we are going to be focused on the numbers for the economy and the numbers for inflation, following up on what has been so far the monetary

policy transmission that is already in the numbers. we have to be cautious this time around because the downside risks that we identified in june and our forecast have materialized. this is an inversion of what happens throughout the pandemic recovery, because usually we have surprise to the upside. this is in part, because the transmission of monetary policy is up and running, we need to take that into account. alex: that seems like a pause for september. would your vote before a pause in september, and is that a peak? >> we have been data dependent in our decisions, there is plenty of data to be made

available until the september decision. we have a new forecast that will tell us precisely how we see the transmission of our decisions into inflation in the economy, and we will decide in september in that regard. it is important to keep in mind that inflation has been falling faster than expected, and we have been successful so far. it is probably too soon to call it a done deal but we certainly were left to focus on these numbers. lizzy: data dependent, that will not be the last time you hear those words today. that was the bank of portugal governors speaking to our colleague, alix steel.

do not mix our exclusive interview with the ecb president, christine lagarde at 9:00 p.m. london time, 4:00 p.m. new york time. futures ahead of cash equity trading, euro stoxx 50 futures down 0.3%. nasdaq futures down 0.2%. all eyes are on the kansas city annual gathering in jackson hole. we will give you a full round up of what we have heard from policymakers so far, and what we expect. this is bloomberg. ♪ hi, i'm jason and i've lost 202 pounds on golo. so the first time i ever seen a golo advertisement, i said, "yeah, whatever. there's no way this works like this." and threw it to the side. a couple weeks later, i seen it again after getting not so pleasant news from my physician. i was 424 pounds, and my doctor was recommending weight loss surgery.

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lizy: good morning. this is "bloomberg daybreak:

europe." these are the stories you are waking up to. asian stocks fall after a selloff on wall street. treasury yields stabilize. waiting on jay powell. christine lagarde will also take center stage today in wyoming as nagle warns it is too early to consider pausing. >> what i said is we have two be stubborn, even more stubborn on inflation. this is what we have to do. it is our mandate. lizy: donald trump turns himself in and is booked on charges of conspiring to overturn the 2020 election result in georgia posting his own mugshot on social media. good morning and happy friday. all eyes on jackson.

investors are nervous ahead of jay powell's speech after 3:00 p.m. london time. markets really want to know whether after this week's dismal economic data the new fed narrative is high for longer rather than higher for longer. and the worries about potential hawkishness from jay powell has even eroded in videos triumph. the nasdaq had its worst day in three weeks. an asian stocks following wall street lower. s&p is flat. for more on how asian markets are faring, let's get over to paul dobson in singapore. asian stocks following wall street lower but the nikkei especially is down this morning. why? >> good morning. it was a pretty ugly day in u.s.

markets. the nikkei -- the nasdaq reversing and coming lower and nvidia ending the day with little changes despite yesterday's blowout results. maybe it is a flush out of positions ahead of jerome powell but also kind of some concerns or profit-taking that -- at these stretched valuations. asia is taking it on the nose particularly the nikkei. what is interesting is the nikkei relative to the topix index, a lot of underperformers because the constituents of the nikkei that include the 10 companies are much greater waiting. when we have a day that the

tech is under pressure the nikkei performs better than the topix. it is kind of -- it depends on how you look at the japanese markets to see if it is underperforming or in-line with the rest of asia. lizy: like you had a look into that. i also want to ask your take on jackson hole. the highlight of the day. i'm sure we will hear the days "data-dependent" many times but what will traders be listening to in terms of clues on when the pause or the peak is coming? >> data dependency is something markets will want to interrogate more. when the fed policymakers are talking about that, it does it mean that every single data point counts? every time we get a -- or how exactly is the fed thinking about that. the other thing that has come

from the agenda is the traders are trying to glean more insight into is the fed's understanding of the interest-rate the fed can set would need to neither stimulate nor constrain the economy. in the past few years the perceptions of whether -- as inflation has been quelled. what we have seen is that people are raising the estimates. that is why we see increases in u.s. yields and and the real yield. they are trying to get a perception of how the fed thinks about the long-term stabilities. lizy: all-star is something that goes into circles. people don't care until they do.

let's stay in wyoming. the kansas city's annual gathering. they are watching for any signs of the policy path ahead. mike mckee has been covering it for us and he is here to break down the schedule of the conference. >> friday's symposium comes in two parts. one of interest of global wall street. jay powell speaks. at 3:00 it is princi lagarde. neither is likely to deliver what investors want, clear clues to the timing a path of interest rates ahead. instead expect them to reiterate that inflation is back. what they won't say is whether that means higher rates, higher rates longer or both. the central bankers and economists between those beaches will turn to the topic of the symposium. structural changes in the global economy.

they will discuss what that means for monetary policy in the longer run. lizy:nael says he is not convinced inflation is -- he spoke to mike mckee at the jackson hole symposium. >> it seems to be in europe that the labor markets understand the similarity with the u.s. is pretty good. we have a good labor market situation. the economic activity is slowing. this is not a surprise to me. when you are hiking interest rates nine times it is for sure there is an impact on -- there is an impact here. this is good and bad news. inflation is coming down. the core is still sticky. the next months we will get more

information. mike: would you lean towards pausing? there has been a split in the markets about it and there seems to be as split in the governing council between those that think you can wait and others that think you can still do more. >> to me it is too early to think about a pause. we have to wait for the next number. we will wait for the numbers. we will see and hour september meeting. i will follow this path and wait for the september numbers. mike: you are in in -- you are in an interesting position. the bundesbank traditionally is the most hawkish and yet the german economy is one of the weakest in at the euro zone -- in the euro zone. how do you lean in a situation like that? >> first of all i hear a lot of talk about germany being the sick man of europe.

this is not the case. we should not underestimate the capacity of the german economy. we are going through some complicated months. but i am not too has a mistake. there is also no time for complacency. we see what is necessary to do. i have a lot of trust in german politics that we are going in the right direction. at least for next year. when you talk about monetary policy, what i said is we have to be stubborn here even more stubborn then inflation. this is what we have to do. it is our mandate. we have to bring inflation down to 2%. there is an understanding in the governing council that this is our mandate and we will be pretty focused and do our job. lizy: nagel at jackson hole. what is ahead today?

let's bring in maria tadeo for analysis. you have abandoned me for the continent but you can still tell me what you think. how much different do you reckon lagarde will be from powell? >> it will be -- it will be interesting. setting the scene when it comes to jackson hole. these are the of monetary policy. -- these are the oscars of monetary policy. it is interesting to see how much has changed from a year ago. a year ago it was all about inflation. having to prove they were serious about teaming and containing inflation. we have had an aggressive hiking cycle. now the question is to how much more and for how much longer. i think we will get both mr. powell and the head of the ecb

reinstating the idea that it is about the data. when it comes to the ecb in particular, the european central bank was perhaps later to the game and one of the key lines from the ecb is whatever the fed does well factor into the global conversation. they are not fed dependent but data-dependent. beyond the emphasis on data defendants what clues are you listening out to when it comes to lagarde when it comes to the next steps -- hike or pause, in terms of clarity from jackson hole? >> i'm not sure if it will bring us clarity but it will bring us debate. the head of the ecb has introduced the possibility in september of a hike or a halt. this is the first time we will hear from the head of the ecb since the july decision. we can see the contours of the

debate. the german central banker was really defending the german economy saying we are not the sick man of europe. it is too soon deposit he said. and the british central banker saying the downside risks are becoming manifested in the economy. and we spoke to the -- >> the important thing is to look in the next prints of the data to see if we will see a softening of the core inflation. and inflation moving towards our target. that was ahead of gracias central bank. to answer your question, the challenge for lagarde today will be to day on the data dependency. they have a new forecast that will come out in september.

gathering the opinions around her. this is a central bank where it is difficult to bridge at the many voices you have in the governing council. we have a string of voices that provided their insights. the goal and the challenge is to be able to deliver a decision that puts all the voices together in a conciliatory way that provides monetary policy for 20 economies. that is a significant challenge for the head of the ecb. lizy: bloomberg's maria tadeo. stay tuned with bloomberg and radio. we will bring you exclusive and extensive coverage from jackson hole including the most awaited speech by fed chair jay powell at 10:00 a.m. u.k. time and i were exclusive interview with christine lagarde. she will be talking to tom keene simulcast on all of your bloomberg channels. that is 9:00 p.m. u.k. time.

coming up brics gets bigger. we look at the expansion of the bloc and the new members joining the group. this is bloomberg. ♪

lizy: welcome back to "bloomberg daybreak: europe." if you are just joining us, in london it is 6:45 a.m. back to u.s. politics, donald trump has turned himself into an atlanta jail to be booked on state charges that he conspired to overturn the elections in georgia. he maintains his innocence. for more analysis we are joined by bill in singapore. donald trump is back on x.

he has posted the mugshot. is he capitalizing on the infamy? bill: absolutely. we have never seen a presidential mugshot before. and now we have. it is one of many firsts for former president donald trump. he put it on x. it is that kind of moment he uses to rally his base of supporters and do try to raise more money for his campaign. much of that money gets sent back to his legal team. he has four active cases around the u.s. and many of the cases are likely going to be interfering at some level with his campaigning. so far he has been like teflon. he has not been heard by any of this with his base. he leads most of his opponents in the republican primary. it is a strategy that has worked for him but it remains to be

seen if there will be any erosion once people start focusing more on the campaign and once we get into the meat of 2024. lizy: what does come next legally? bill: we just had that republican debate a couple days ago that the former president did not take part in. legally the prosecutor in the case in atlanta is hoping to have him back in court by the end of october. it is much earlier than the spring of next year that we were expecting. the judge has not ruled donald trump is already set to appear in court in march before the super tuesday primary. that is often a do or die moment for many presidential candidates. i will give us a good sense as to whether there is any other person in the republican party that can threaten him for the

nomination. lizy: thank you to bill. saudi arabia and the uae are among a bunch of countries being invited to join the brics group. it is pushing to expand its global influence. jennifer has been well across the summit from start to finish and she joins us from johannesburg. what has been the reaction to this selective list of potential new members? >> this group would boost the brics block. bloomberg economics projects it could potentially increase -- it could account for 37% of global gdp eclipsing the g7. we heard a number of leaders talking positively and welcoming the news. there is still a lot of skepticism. unclear what this spells.

there was some division among the countries with the five. some people are saying maybe this imports even more potential tensions about things like trade, human rights, democracy. egypt and ethiopia have their own tensions. china and india have been having a standoff over the border. this could spell were concerned about whether or not this brics grouping of countries will be able to get a lot done considering their divisions. what we heard from the leaders on thursday is that they are welcoming these countries and are hoping this could increase their influence in their ability to transform a lot of multilateral institutions. we will have to see if that actually pans out. lizy: there had been a lot of talk about moving away from dependence on the dollar.

there does not seem to be much development of a joint currency. coming up, it is friday. are you hitting the pub after work or are you staying for a temple? we will -- for a tipple? that is next. this is bloomberg. ♪

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lizy: welcome back to "bloomberg daybreak: europe." breaking news out of china. china has issued rules to ease mortgages for some homeowners. this is according to a document from the pboc and other regulators. it is in rest bonds to concerns about the weakening chinese economy. -- it is in response to concerns

about the weakening chinese economy. we have been talking about concerns about the property sector this week. i want to get back to the u.k. we have had insights on the u.k. economy this morning on the gfk data. consumer confidence rebounding this month playing into the inflation story. to give us more color, it is friday and pubs have been part of british culture for hundreds of years but numbers have dropped precipitously in recent years. according to the british beer association more than 560 pubs close in 2022. more than in either 2021 or 2020. what is driving down the number of pubs in britain apart from the inflation story? helen wrote the story. great to have you.

why are pubs shutting? helen: a combination of things. it is been [indiscernible] definitely some of those short-term pressures have been a big deal. there has been a long time shift in consumer habits away from going to the pub every night. there is other stuff to do now. people go to the gym or to a café. things that people were not doing in the 1990's. lizy: what are the solutions? we don't see many working british phone boxes, another pillar of british life. how do we save the pub?

helen: we don't have working phone boxes but people love them so much they use them for other uses. some have turned into a library or defibrillators. and similar things have happened with pubs. they have stopped being just a place where you can go for a drink. now some also have a little grocery or a post office installed or a space for kids. a lot of pubs have been saved from being shut down by the community. a community will come together and purchase the pub and run it together to benefit the village. that is a nice model that seems to work. lizy: thank you to bloomberg's helen or should i say, year's. china issuing a new rule to ease

mortgages for some homebuyers. were seeing the yuanparing losses. adding to the drip feed. this is expected to help homebuyers to be qualified for the lower down payment ratio and preferential interest rate that is currently enjoyed by first-time buyers. i does the latest on china. i'm sure they will bring you more next on markets today. this is bloomberg. ♪

it's an amazing thing when you show generosity of spirit to someone. and you want people to be saved and to have a better life, then you don't stop. the idea that we have saved five million people's lives, it's overwhelming. it's everything. anna: this is "bloomberg markets: today."