it's overwhelming. it's everything. jon: welcome to bloomberg markets. sonali: we are going to get a check on the markets. we are back in the green for the s&p 500 and the nasdaq 100. that all coincides with a rise in crude oil. this is about range bound. we have been fluctuating between $75 and $80 for a couple of days now.

5.07 on friday and back now to 5.05. jon: we are tracking three. bloomberg had been leading the reporting there on major settlements tied to earplugs. those shares are up about 5%, hawaiian electric up more than 40% as they have tried to set the record straight on the state of their power lines. also watching health care, boston scientific and many notable standouts throughout the trading day. this after some encouraging study results. not so encouraging for nova cure with new trial data. that stock has lost a third of its value today. and we are watching this out of china. we did see is representative through the golden dragon index. trying to appease market concerns over the state of the

economy. sonali: we look at attention the markets have had, this is what he had to say. >> china has been a disappointment. given the problems they are having right now, it is inconceivable that we do not see aggressive physical and monetary policy over the next six to 12 months to try to reverse those fortunes. jon: tom orlik spent a decade working in beijing. there have been two reactions to this latest stimulus. on the one hand, it shows a commitment to the economy, but on the other hand, perhaps not as powerful as some previous examples of the government stepping in to provide financial firepower. what is your view? tom: that characterizes it pretty well. signal on stimulus is there.

the substance on stimulus remains lacking. we saw that the demised over the weekend, where we had china moving to cut the stamp duty on trading -- training equities and commit to reducing the flow of ipos, which is designed to give a boost to the equity market. that triggered an initial, very positive reaction. china markets were up strongly in morning trading today. but, frankly, what investors need to see is not just this window dressing on stamp duty and producing ideal levels. -- ipo levels. they need to see the big guns on monetary and fiscal policy. that is why it that initial pump in the china markets in training monday morning -- trading money morning fizzle. sonali: how much of this is just

markets not reacting to not enough of a move from the government that the need for the markets to see the market not on life support. this idea that they need to see the economic data itself turned around? tom: that is another key point. the other news we had out of china in the last days was data on industrial profits. and industrial profits in china are down. down from a year earlier. on the one hand, the government is saying we want to support the equity market. we will cut stamp duty and get spirits back among the investors. on the other hands, you have this signal still falling. that explains the reluctance of investors to step back in. sonali: thank you for your time.

pedro weekend in china. another policy decision being watched closely on wall street is the fdic meeting tomorrow, which will include a proposal requiring u.s. regional banks with more than $100 million in assets to issue long-term debt. nathan, how significant are the proposals tomorrow given what we have already seen at of washington when it comes to more rules for small and incised banks? nathan: these are significant. the banks that are above 100 billion dollars in assets are looking at a shortfall. the bulk of that is for pnc, truest, u.s. bank and so forth. this proposal was initially tech drug for these look on value -- silicon valley bank failure. they dropped the threshold from $250 million to $109 and ensured

that this proposal comes out. this is not applicable to the biggest banks. they already adhere to this, and certainly this will be something on the fixed income or debt signed that you will be paying attention to. we anticipate fertilization of this proposal will probably be about one year from now. jon: this is interesting. we have been covering the m&a aspect of this as well. depending on what you need to have on the balance sheets, some might be thinking about some larger consolidation yet, it was see my getting the math right what regulators want could also delay m&a. is that possible? nathan: absolutely. banking regulators are skeptical of m&a. we have seen certain prior mergers take two years or longer. or ultimately backing out. what will happen is you will

have the math side of the equation and will have to get over that hurdle. but when it comes to m&a, you will also have to get over the impact to the community, something regulators have started to focus on. how many branches are you going to close? how far will a branch be from certain areas? these are all questions if you do not have to answer them 10 years ago, you certainly do now. sonali: i want to pull of this chart about credit card delinquency rates despite low unemployment. these rates and small banks are the highest level on record. there's been a significant especially in the last year, when the ftse and other regulars take a look at rules imposed on these small incised banks, are they -- midsized banks, are they looking at weakening credit standards? nathan: i do not think they are

actively looking at it, but they know it will get worse before it gets better. student loans have to start being paid again in october. that will be a strain on credit card delinquencies. we have seen actions from banks themselves during earnings calls that they are aware of this. regulators certainly are, but i think staff is certainly putting up publications. but i do not think it is at the point where policymakers are saying, we have this debt proposal here. let's work with credit card delinquencies. they have to put this in the final rule during their cost- benefit analysis. if there's any thought that they did not do their job, the industry can sue them. jon: we just got through a conversation on china.

investors are looking at potential cracks in the global economic situation. in the banking sector, at least when we look at regional banks in particular, what are you going to be watching for to determine the level of health the nathan: when you mention china, it has to be said we have an election going on. president biden put out an executive order on limiting u.s. investment in china. one think we often hear from anchors is what is the status of the biden-china relationship? sopolicymakers have made the trip to beijing or going to. but what we need to see is, a, for the rest of this year, how does the biden playback change? next year, what is the impact on the project ready for gop debate? sonali: bloomberg intelligence analyst nathan dean, thank you.

coming up next, the ftc suspends in-house proceedings to block the takeover of horizon therapeutics. the lookout on the industry is now. this is bloomberg. ♪

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♪ ♪ jon: this is bloomberg markets. time for our stock of the error. horizon therapeutics gaining ground. wall street encouraged by the news. the ftc pulling back.

efforts to block the acquisition of horizon -- they have a pending deal with pfizer under with the ftc. sonali: traders are almost 100% certain about that deal. if you look at the trading action, both when it comes to the horizon deal as well as see jen, does wall street have this much certainty correct? are they right to be certain that will go through? >> the ftc has been tough on deals but it has recently given indications that it might be open to settlements. there was another case in mortgage software that they agreed to a settlement. that went as expected. then there was news on friday that they have pulled back the in-house to amgen-horizon.

if they reach a settlement in the next two weeks, they could cancel that. jon: you have covered so many different examples of an aggressive ftc -- whether it is in technology or here in pharma as well. we mentioned other industry players caught up in ftc unknowns have seen their shares left today. what is the biggest take away on how the ftc's approach is looking to date versus a year ago? leah: when the chair at the net concept term started in 2021, the ftc was taking an aggressive approach to a lot of deals and not accepting any settlements. they had mostly been in the works before she got there. they have challenged a number of deals. the two biggest art metal

platforms, inc.. but they have not failed -- very well in court. the two that they're supposed to do this fall have now entered settlement talks. looks like they might be willing to accept the settlements that previous administrations debt rather than going through costly litigation battles where they have not had as much success. jon: helpful context. thanks for your time. we continue to watch the amgen- horizon story. coming up, phil haslip will join us to talk about a possible wave of ipos. that is next. this is bloomberg. ♪

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time for for what it's worth. $2 billion is how much cash instacart has. it has filed to go public. it's money suggests it could wait longer to ipo. but this offering would be very closely watched. the ipo market has been soft of late. sonali: let's dig into the ipo outlook with phil haslett. if you take a look at instacart and claudio, both have shown profitability. as an ipo in this era stand a chance without processing? phil: i do not think so. that is why we are seeing them come out. they have all the boxes checked

-- profitability, growth. in particular, in instacart's case, a business that people understand. there's what you need to do to be a successful public company right now. sonali: instacart had a down round before they filed to go public. if you look at other companies looking to raise money in private markets now, it is similar. does it make sense for companies to bite the bullet now so they could have a future later? phil: i think so. i think a lot of down runs are happening, just not in the public domain. companies are not proud to say they are down 50%, but the fact that instacart is biting the bullet and sang valuations go up and down, we are ready. here is what we look like. jon: this is a company that has been ready to go, but because of it name brand recognition, i am sure people around instacart

might be cheering them on right now. is this particular offer the kinds that might inspire more ipo investors to encourage other companies to go public? phil: i think so. we track these 1400 unicorns in the pipeline to be public company. instacart will be a bellwether to see if other companies want to file before the end of the year. they do not have much time. you would normally have announcements on the tuesday after labor day but we are working on this. . some companies will save maybe we should bring our company to market as well, so long as we have profitability and growth and hopefully a bit of a commitment from investors already, which is something instacart has. jon: maybe you could connect the dots. there was an earlier generation of technology companies that generally would go public earlier in their life, but the

fact that instacart has been around for more than a decade highlights the fact that he can operate in private where people can trade in companies privately. it certainly there is that opportunity when you are public for stakeholders to get more involved in the public or perhaps get that opportunity to unlock some of the capital. what have private markets that like during this period ipo softness? phil: we have typically seen something consistent with instacart's pricing -- discounts versus the company's last funding round of about 40% or 50%. if you look at the last funding round, which is about $30 billion or $40 billion, our estimate is probably dollars or $13 billion valuation. what we are having conversations

about is you are worth so many billion dollars. will we be successful if we have to markets it to the dollars or $3 billion or should we continue to grow as a company? that shoot and grow at all costs and ask questions later era is gone. lyft and uber are below. what we need to see is if a company does have these core characteristics. there is a conversation we are having with a c evans, ceos, and investment banks. sonali: data breaks is reaching a new funding round that would value it at $34 billion. do you have to have a connection to aa you-- to ai to have the sort of funding round? phil: seems like the golden ticket. he looked at a company that he

sector like cybersecurity, if your market is growing quickly, that is an opportunity for you to still go public, maybe with a bit of losses, but that group is small. the thing i will add for ai companies is most are new. not a lot of companies will be able to show a history of revenue and revenue growth. you have companies that are six years old, maybe younger. how to get institutional investors, you cannot rely on three years of data, that will be a tougher pill to swallow. jon: it is remarkable about the ai excitement. we attacked earlier about the banking realities earlier this year. silicon valley bank's collapse. here we are with an ipo window that appears to be opening as we head into the fall. dramatic turnaround from this spring. phil: i wouldn't say it is open

yet. i joked that the lock is open but do people want to open the window? it will take time. and we have this short window. the two companies have filed so far with clavio in instacart. but you will probably have to do your filings in the next report for weeks if you want to start trading in 2023. it is starting to show signs of life, but what will hinges a couple overall macro factors hinging on inflation and successful trading from these companies. sonali: you are hinting at the idea that there could be a window opening but it is not opening the floodgates. what does this mean for future venture activity moving forward. it will not necessarily create the dry powder that most of the industry would hope for. phil: i think a lot of companies want to see if this will be successful. and a lot of these companies are not doing well, but some are.

if you have good enough metrics, investors will say, this might be our chance to get the liquidity for ourselves, our founders. otherwise it will have to use the private markets but a lot of eyes on this one for sure. jon: great stuff. we will be watching closely. phil haslett breaking down the ipo market right now. as for actual markets today, we are seeing willingness on the part of investors to do some nibbling on stocks. we talked about that china stimulus, which is brought from investors back into equities after some of that interest rate and certainty. still down from the s&p 500 in august. could end up being one of the most challenging months of the year so far. this is bloomberg. ♪

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the end of april august. >> to your pointl,imping is correct. same goes for the nasdaq, up on the day and turns of gains we have seen in both indices, crude oil on the rise a little bit over the 80 handle, we have been 79 through 80 the past couple of days. look at the two year yield,