heidi: we are counting down to

the major market open. >> the top stories this hour, u.s. stocks climbed the most since june as bond yields of, megacap losing the nasdaq and bitcoin pdf. haidi: china's big banks cutting deposits in the latest measures to shore up growth. shery: taiwan's main airline, along hold jets upgrades its fleet, we will hear from china airline president -- from the chinese airline president. shery: we are gaining ground, take gains gaining ground as bond yields are treated and we also have those regional

lenders, rising despite the fact we saw the regulators are now planning more requirements for small and midsized banks. even the bank index saying it is the best in the month. we are watching u.s. job openings falling to the lowest levels since 2021 and that souring our market outlook for jobs getting fill in the confidence side of things. was confidence falling by the most in two years. those bets about rate hikes in 2023 being dialed back, we saw yields falling, the two year yelled below to 97 out. we saw wti rise above $81 a barrel in the new york session despite the fact we did have a russian flow soaring to two months high, it is a risk on session here in new york. haidi: that pushing down of

expectations are at what we may see from policy makers coming 23 as well. that will be one of the key things as we get into the start of trading in asia, equity features are in the green, the most since june and the retreat in bond yields, a big part of that narrative as well, we see sydney futures up by .7% of 1%. what is the asia crypto stocks as well? they could chase higher on the grayscale etf as a key factor is what we are watching in the trading themes in asia. the aussie dollar seen some incremental gains, 64-82, the dollar was pretty steady going into that data that we are expecting for the rest of the week and i did spare a little bit of a recovery rally when it comes to the aussie dollar. kiwi stocks down by 1%, we are watching the dollar pretty steady at 145. shery: we are watching what is

happening in china with bloomberg learning that the largest banks there are preparing to cut interest rates on existing mortgages and deposits. the latest state directed measure to shore up growth in the economy and annabelle has the details and the morsels of reporting. we did not see any moves on the loan prime rate and mortgages, we were scratching our heads. we are now seeing more targeted measures? >> this is what we are hearing essentially, lumbar exclusive as you said, 90% of home loans in china could be impacted by this. quite big in essence it will impact a lot of people but it is that debate. a lot of primate decisions, it is about investors trying to understand how meaningful any sort of action or lack of action in china is going to be. in terms of the details, china is expected to cut rates on existing home loans. that will be achieved by

trimming the premium on the reference rates. in china, floating interest rates are typically set at a premium to the five-year lpr which has been the reference rate for mortgages since august 2020, it was announced rather over the course of about a year, trimming that premium is most likely going to be benefiting mortgages or mortgage holders that were contracted before the housing rout started. we are still unclear as to the size of the reduction but we understand that it could be imminent. a could be apply only to the first home buyers. that is one step we are hearing about and the other that was discussed in our exclusive report was that china vanke banks could cut deposits between 10 and 20 basis points. lower deposit rates will help lenders at least protect their mortgages because they will be

lowering or expected to lower rates for homebuyers. the big question of course is if it will be meaningfully popping up sentiment here and we have more reaction on that later in the hour. haidi: there are other signs of financial stress in china? >> we have a new sign of financial stress that is popping up in china but the latest one coming in overnight and this is revolving around a key investor in hong kong international what does the trust from considered to be at the heart of china's banking crisis. we understand that the key investor, this is the textile machinery company, it is planning to do list its shares, that was put forward in a filing to the stock exchange yesterday, the company is proposing to do this, pushing ahead with doing this is citing market changes for the move and significant uncertainties, we did not make any sort of reference to the international in there but we understand that it is ranked as a top shareholder -- there is a

top shareholder of the shadow bank around 37%, it is a rare move, to move across essential government bank fact enterprises. it tells us how significant these concerns still or about financial contagion within china. shery: much of the issues in china from the property sector which is huge, whether it is for the broader micro economy or for household wealth, what is going on right now? are there any improvements? >> is continuing to push the can down the road a little bit because we are not seeing any defaults just yet, we are seeing more developers pushing ahead with these plans to delay their payments. country garden is another developer who is at the heart of these issues and it is the biggest inside china and they have requested to add a 40 calendar day grace period to a maturing yuan to its

liquidity struggles. we are expecting its earnings to be due later today and we are predicting a huge loss for the first half, of course its debt was really causing further distress and that can take it risk without discussing to the broader economy in china. haidi: annabelle in hong kong. turning to geopolitics, vladimir putin has agreed to visit china in october, his first foreign trip since march when the icc issued a warrant for war crimes let us go to bloomberg's general news director, this is a key relationship, what do we know? >> what we know is that president jinping in china invited president putin to attend the bell and road summit that they are having in october. the russian president said yes.

it would be his first outing, his first time outside the country, he has visited some russian occupied areas of ukraine but his first time to go anywhere outside of that area since march when that arrest warrant was issued for alleged war crimes issued by the hague. the importance of this relationship with the chinese leader, to mr. putin, the chinese leader went to basically went to moscow and has tried to broker president jinping's -- trying to broker a peace agreement for ukraine but has stepped back from publicly giving much support for the war although of course, the relationship between the two men remains very strong.

the fact he is going there shows the importance of that relationship to mr. putin and he has turned down invitations, he will not visit the g20 in india in september, he was supposed to show up in turkey, and he did not. he has not gone anywhere significant since this march warrant was issued. shery: i wonder how this will sit with washington at a time where we are seeing u.s. china relations following, what it did did we see from the diplomatic visit? >> she is a commerce secretary, perhaps had some of the most enthusiastic response from chinese leaders to her visit. there have been several visits of cabinet officials including secretary of state. her visit, she was making clear that even though there is a

national security concerns about some of the aspects of the economic relationship with china , she wanted to separate some of that. basically look at the ways that two countries could work together including on exports. it was a positive kind of message which was well received in beijing. she did make some comments just in the past 24 hours that businesses in the u.s. were finding china on investable and she went on to explain -- un -investable. that is a harsher message. she is trying to do both things in that visit and it is still viewed as one of the more positive visits that have been had by cabinet officials and senior officials from washington in recent months. she is trying to bring this message of what can we get done together? haidi: jodi schneider joining us from washington. shery: coming up, chinese

airlines -- china airlines upgrading its fleet with more fuel-efficient aircraft. our exclusive conversation later this hour. here why fl putnam is asking people to expose to cheaper sectors. their chief market strategist joins us next. this is bloomberg. ♪

shery: take a look at how u.s. futures are trading it in the asian session, some upside after the s&p 500 saw its best day after early june. futures continuing to extend those gains after bond yields fell again in the new york session, we are following hp after hours, that is probably pressuring the trading session and reduced the full year cash flow and profit outlook saying that a rebound in the pc market will take longer than expected. in the new york session it was a risk on session, we saw the russell 2000 off of the small caps. the best day since early july. our next guest says the equity market has bonded out and she is increasing exposure to cheaper areas, joining us is ellen hazen , portfolio manager at fl putnam

investment management company. right to have you back what do you -- great to have your back, what you like about broadening the market and more bargain-hunting about the exposure you are getting right now? ellen: thank you for having me. as we look at the u.s. market, we see that the big seven as everyone knows has run so far, so fast. starting in the end of may you see the market broadening out. we saw small caps begin to outperform. you saw mid-caps begin to outperform. we saw value begin to outperform. that lasted through most of june and july and in august it began to revert and some of that reversed. even if you look today with the numbers, the jobs were a little bit weaker. what that means is that we are more likely to have a soft landing and ultimately that is really good for those barter companies. part of the reason the market

was so focused on the big ai companies and companies like tesla and nvidia and so forth, it is because the market was afraid that there was going to be a recession and a very hard landing. if that is the case, you want to own faster growth companies. if you think the economy will be ok you do not need to crowd into those really big names. we are finding help in health care names out of the smaller companies as well. haidi: are you positioning overseas in an environment where we continue to see these economic pressures coming from china? ellen: that is a tricky question, the first answer to that question is that europe is very inexpensive compared to the u.s., if you look at the gap on a forward pe bases between europe and the u.s. it is why does it has been in 15 years. we do think there is value there, the question is is going to be realized? we think it could happen.

certainly in europe, like in the u.s. who are seeing a big difference between the hard data. the soft data everyone is pessimistic, if you look at the actual numbers, look at the gdp, you are up is doing ok -- europe is doing ok. as we look at asia, clearly, china is dragging down a lot of other economies. at the same time, it also provides opportunities. what do i mean? if you look at japan, you folks of bill burck have done a great job covering a lot of the development over the last several years are companies are changing their capital allocation practices. increasing dividends and returning more cash to shareholders through buybacks. there looking at their roe's. japan is a cheap market. finally, as china weakens, not only economically, most importantly geopolitically, what i mean by we can is simply that

so many companies, as you were talking about earlier are looking to move some of their operations out of china and diversify into vietnam, india, other countries so that they are not quite so uniquely dependent on china. that of course is not good for the chinese people who have been servicing those companies, multinationals, it provides a lot of opportunity and some of these -- in these other areas. you see china slowing, that does not mean that all of the other countries related to china are necessarily going to have problems. haidi: i want to get your thoughts on where we go from here in the ai adjacent rally, when you take a look at how nvidia actually barely hung on to their own gains, what does it tell you about how stretched valuations are? whether the gains will be harder to hang onto from here? ellen: i think i am probably in

the majority when i say that a lot of the ai related companies are pretty stretched. not to say that they are not great companies, not to say they do not have good growth ahead of them, but the evaluations are pretty high and nvidia is looking a little bit more reasonable, and 30 times if you see the estimates are right, that begins to be viable around here. again, so much money was carded into those ai plays at the valuations got pretty stretched so i do not think you need to be there, i think some of the money will flow out, again, particularly with the economic backdrop looking more benign, then it did before. we believe in ai, we think ai will happen, it will improve productivity, it will provide a lot of opportunities, that does not mean you need to buy all of those stocks today and some of them may exhale before going higher in future years. shery: great to speak with you,

portfolio manager and chief market strategist at fl putnam. you can get a roundup of the stories you need to know to get your day going in today's edition of daybreak. go to dayb and customize your settings so you get the news on the industries and assets that matter to you. this is bloomberg. ♪

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haidi: take a look at how corporate is trading at the moment we are saying bitcoin, holding steady after actually jumping about 6% in the new york session, the whole crypto space rallied in today's session as the u.s. court paved the way for the first bitcoin atf -- etf. industry shares are higher, great bitcoin trust soaring in the double digits. let us discuss what is happening

with our cross asset reporter, emily, tell us a bit about this u.s. appeals court ruling and why this is important? >> issuers have been trying to launch a spot bitcoin etf in the u.s. and they have not been able to. this ruling from the sec brings us from the court of appeals brings us one step closer but it is not a guarantee that the sec is going to approve a spot bitcoin etf in the u.s.. what we do know is that grayscale investments has for years been trying to convert its reskill bitcoin trust into an etf and when the sec rejected their proposal one of the things they said was that the etf lacked exposure to detect fraud, now the courts are basically siding with grayscale saying that if the fcc is approving bitcoin futures etf's, they are discriminating against a product that is similar to that are not approving the bitcoin etf.

haidi: to what extent does this change spot bitcoin etf? >> it is not a guarantee we will see a spot bitcoin etf but the ruling in favor of grayscale is certainly paving the way to getting us there, we still have to wait and hear from the sec to see how they react to this and they could strike back on the court decision and again there is a lot of etf issuers waiting in the wings, blackrock, fidelity, invesco, some of the etf issuers that have filed for a spot bitcoin etf and they are waiting and it is unclear what this ruling means, not just for grayscale's conversion to a spot bitcoin etf but also what this would mean for all of the other issuers who are also trying to get a spot bitcoin etf product approved. shery: we saw the market reaction and it was pretty positive but is this an

indication that crypto could go more mainstream? why all of this positive sentiment across the board? >> it has to do with the mainstream approval, people get excited about this from the fund side, having a spot bitcoin etf would be a way that retail investors through their brokerage account could get exposure to the direct bitcoin price. right now if you want to buy a bitcoin product in your account you have to buy bitcoin futures products. otherwise you have to go to coinbase, go on chain to actually get that exposure to bitcoin. that would allow large warehouses, brokerage accounts to give retail investors that exposer to the spot to coin -- that exposure to the spot bitcoin. haidi: but is emily griffey out and the grayscale ceo is joining us live to talk about that -- that is emily, and the grayscale

ceo is joining us live to talk about that. early thursday morning, if you are watching in sydney. some corporate stories were tracking, goldman sachs will pay 5.5 million dollars to settle allegations of a failed attempt to retain thousands of phone calls. the bank relied on two separate external systems which failed occasionally in 2020. at least one of them failed to increased usage of services used to record rubble phone calls during the pandemic -- robot phone calls during the pandemic. ubs said for its latest quarterly earnings on thursday. the biggest one fall profits recorded by the banks after its takeover of porta suisse. it is expected to unveil what could be billions of dollars in write-downs on assets and thousands of job cuts. shery: speaking about those numbers with the ceo, catch that

conversation on thursday 4:00 p.m. here in sydney. plenty more to come here on daybreak australia as we are counting down to the start of trading across major markets. looking forward to chasing those gains we saw in the u.s. session highs. gains on the fed outlook with the will back when it comes to global bond yields. these equity futures broadly seeing at least a modest rally across the region. china's largest banks are in focus, preparing to cut and reprice a bit when it comes to expectations from the fed. much more to come, this is bloomberg. ♪

haidi: taking a look at the day

ahead for australia and new zealand, the australian prime minister assent to announce the date of the historic referendum seeking to add an indigenous voice to parliament to the constitution. the leasing data on approvals for july, in a few minutes time and getting australia's inflation number later. economists are expecting cpi to ease to 5.2% year on year. more, we are in this holding pattern when it comes to the rba. what are we expecting from the latest data? >> it is trending doom, met region had at -- it is trending down, they are expecting it to continue today as you say, 5.2% for july. this is not the quarterly read which is the one we normally pay attention to. inflation is so far outside of the target for so long, this monthly reit has been gaining significant -- read has been gaining significant sums.

in july we saw an increase to childcare benefits which reduced services inflation. fuel prices have gone back up, that is providing pressure on the other direction. a mixed picture. the rba governor yesterday had a speech in brisbane and she addressed the inflation busted in the q&a session and she said it is still too high but it is coming down. the forecast is for that to continue to do so. shery: what are we expecting this week from the rba meeting, then? >> no change, but the hawkish tightening bias is expected to remain in place, interesting to note, it will be phil's last meeting in charge in the rba. by the time we get to third quarter print, she was asked about the next move and the speech she gave in brisbane, let

us hear what she had to say. >> all i can say is that we may have to raise interest rates again but we are watching the data very carefully. we will be taking decisions for the time being until next year, month on month. >> inflation is pretty much the defining presence of phil lowe's time in charge. it is below the upper limit of the rba's target and he will not be around for the clear victory. haidi: ahead of that we are seeing citi features up, we saw in the u.s. session as we saw a little bit of repricing when it comes to expectations and we saw global bond yields retreating as well. we are seeing them up, kiwi stocks on the back foot. some weakness coming through there.

chicago nikkei futures trending up, modest ups. we are seeing broadly some gains in the plan across the region for wednesday? shery: we have seen the upside, and only across u.s. assets but asian assets including australia on the latest from china, in trying to boost economic and really financial growth in the markets. let us actually discuss all of the latest developments with annabel who is in hong kong, china banks could cut rates on existing home loans and also deposits? the reaction seems to have been pretty positive so far. what are analysts saying? >> we did actually say that the bank stocks are trading higher in hong kong session. the readthrough we are getting is that this will be some sort of incremental policy. probably not enough to meaningfully shift. let us go through the context of this so we understand that

china's biggest banks could be preparing to cut rates on mortgages and that could be a very immanent, could be a state backed directive coming from beijing and what affect essentially the majority of china's outstanding mortgages. talking to the tune of $5.3 trillion here. the cuts have been highly anticipated because beijing officials did start to hint at this around mid-july. something that could have some sort of impact on boosting growth. that is the main modus operandi of what would be behind this. what we are hearing is that banks could cut the deposit rates for the third time this year. let us change on and think you look at what bloomberg intelligence is saying about this because one of the analysts have been talking about it. essentially this would be something akin to the tune of a 10 basis point policy rate reduction. they're using their own model to estimate that. it could have a modest impact,

it could be useful. haidi: what are we hearing about the possible policy steps? >> yes, this is also coming from the group and they are saying would this be enough to really boost consumer sentiment? they are to the downside here in terms of their readthrough on it saying it will be incremental policy steps, not a big game changer because the consumer confidence is very weak. even if you do cut mortgage rates would that be enough for consumers to go out and spend excess cash in the economy? i mentioned that we did show bank stocks moving a little bit higher into the close of yesterday's session and that could be down to the other story in focus around lowering the deposit rates because at least if you are cutting the mortgages, you can offset that by decreasing your deposit rate.

thank stocks are higher into the session and we are continuing to monitor that investor reaction given that the news over the weekend with beijing pushing through these measures to try to bring more liquidity back into the market. haidi: staying with banks, u.s. officials have built their response to the bank turmoil in march, lenders with as little as $100 billion in assets was issue enough long-term debt to cover capital losses in times of severe stress. let us get the reaction from a financial strategist at odeon capital group. always great to have you and your views to weigh in on this, on the one hand, this is going to be an earnings headwind for a lot of these lenders, on the other end was this softer and less harsh than what perhaps could have been announced? dick: the banks are undercapitalized because when

the fed started raising interest rates, the financial assets of the banks which had $20 trillion were started to go down in value. because of the fed is not eased up in terms of interest rate policies the value of equity in the banking system in the united states is well below expected or acceptable levels in addition to which the higher rates have created a real problem for banks holding onto deposits. i do not think by asking them to put on long-term debt it is going to get after two critical issues facing the industry and i do think american banks have gotten a real problem. haidi: you have consistently said in our previous conversation that the banking crisis did not end in march and april, these are more structural issues. coming from the fed's

policymaking, none of this i guess changes the calculus when it comes to that. it is less unexpected. dick: you cannot make the value of $20 trillion in financial assets go up. asking these companies to take on more long-term debt. if you want the value of these financial assets to go up, you have to lower interest rates and that is not in the cards at the present time, in addition to which if you take a look at the money market funds, like vanguard, they are saying why should you keep your deposit in the bank, we are offering you 5.25 for your money and the banks are offering you a 1.5% of your money, again, by asking banks to put on more long-term debt, how do you resolve that problem? are people going to say the banks have more long-term debt and i do not want 5.5% on my money? i want to .5% so i am putting my

money back in the banks. i do not think so. shery: what do they need to do in order to structurally end the crisis, usace to ongoing -- you say that is still ongoing? dick: banks need more equity, banks make money off of their equity basis and the banks, the fed put him in a difficult position, the banks exacerbated the problems over -- for the last six years bank stocks have been down in price, they have been down in five of six years and the market has gone up in price and they keep destroying their capital. these banks bought back or hundred billion dollars worth of stock -- $400 billion worth of stocks. the bank stocks went down based on $400 billion of stock buybacks. what happened to the earnings of the banks?

that money if there was still in the banks, it was leveraged in-one which is the average for the industry, it would have meant that the banks to date would have had $4.5 trillion. if they put him in -- them into fed funds, they would have earnings around 16-20% higher than the earnings they have right now. the banks driven by management and the board of directors and they cannot control the fed, they keep raising interest rates. shery: if you are bets we may see another increase in 2023 given of course the disappointing economic data, but what happens next? when could we see another flareup of really big problems in the banking sector in march? dick: november 30 we are playing this game again about shutting down the united states

government. we are still dealing with an economy which is overloaded with debt. interest rates will be one of the third hardest payments made by the u.s. government. we have a system that is providing data which is erroneous. they are basically saying they have more assets than they really have. where in the situation, we are in a situation where 15 to 18 months or get an inverted yield curve, the market is on a high and you cannot fight the market, is a wants to go up it will go up but the fundamentals to support that increase are not there in the financial system. haidi: what would you be buying right now than? dick: a trip to miami! i think what i believe with

money is i think that holding cash in short-term instruments is the greatest amount of sense, waiting another six months to see how these financial problems are going to be settled, i think is the appropriate approach, i would not be buying back stocks, i think that the issues in the industry are clear. i have a lot of difficulty buying this rally in the stock market right now. given where i see the united states government going, i think this theory which says that it does not matter what the fed does anymore because they have picked up in terms of the way they are going with race, the economy does not care where the rates are, at this level, i think that is a mistake. people have got to be very cautious year. shery: good to have you back, financial strategist at odeon

capital group. we were talking about these banks and we are following them in the west session and more regulation in the sector, watch us live for more on this conversation. you can watch our past conversations, tv is your function, dive into the securities or functions that wait to talk about and become part of the conversation by sending us instant messages during our shows. this is for bloomberg subscribers only. this is bloomberg. ♪

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shop now only at sleep number. actually a four or 5.2%, giving back some of the gains of 3.5% we saw in the previous month of june. that was revised to 3.4%. we have said that they slump in kiwi house -- we have saw the slump in kiwi house prices, but the opportunity may be short-lived. ainsley, what is behind opportunity for these first homebuyers in new zealand? >> as you say the big driver husband that fall in house prices, we saw the slump and

having -- helping them has been strong wage growth and that is coupled with interest rates forecasted to be at or near their peak. using and lending rules and some tweaks to government policies which have deterred investors. while that has helped first-time homebuyers get a market share in is not to say it is easy for them at the moment. interest rates are around 7% or 8% they have to pay on their mortgages, double what it was two years ago and they have to give up really big deposits and have solid jobs. while there is more opportunity, it is not easy. shery: this may not last for that long? >> well, --, wait-and-see. weight have house -- we have house prices stabilizing, the central bank forecasted a couple of weeks ago when i had this

interest rate decision, also, we have an election in six weeks and if the preposition party wons and they may bring in some -- wins, they may bring in some to the polls and the current government made abilities to deduct interest before rental income, national would bring them back there were encouraged investors to come back into the market and they would be directly competing with the first-time buyers. also there might be an increase in foreign buyers also allowed under initial government. shery: ainsley thompson there. our results of interviews with the china airline president, more on the fleet expansion trends and the outlook, next. this is bloomberg. ♪

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cvs. healthier happens together. shery: china airlines is planning to boost its fleet with more fuel-efficient aircraft as part of its sustainability push. its president, kao shing-hwang tells bloomberg the upgrade comes as they expect passenger volume to rise.

kao: we are coming back, the passengers are above 15%, the same volume compared with the 2019 pre-covid. for the first half, 2023. right now, we are looking for a very significant increase in the second half. 70% to 80% coming back for covid. we are very confident about these increases. >> when will you get back to pre-pandemic levels? kao: probably near to 2025. >> are demand was boosted, it did -- cargo demand was boosted, you made nearly record revenue, that trend is reversing now.

cargo demand is stabilizing. what do you see the bottom, where will the settle? kao: i will say that the demand of the cargo is not as high as before. we will try to find a new balance which is between the cargo and the passenger! we will try to find out how many percentage we needed, focusing on the capital in cargo. >> what is the new balance? what is the right mix? >> we are still looking for that, that needs to be dynamically evaluated for that. before 2019, it is about the 13 percent through 15% ratio. >> you made new orders for the

dreamliner's, and the airbus, that will help you replace large part of your passenger fleet with some room to grow. as china airlines looking for a new fleet? kao: we were looking for the new fleet to replace the triple seven which is the long haul. we were looking for a new airplane or it may be 315, 1000, it is the target we are looking for. we have 24/7 dreamliner. we have the option to decide how many we need. once we decided the numbers, we might be thinking can it be repriced?

the route used by the 347, maybe during that time we would know much better than how many airplane, new airplanes we need to be priced. >> you mentioned about sustainability, this whole kind of net zero carbon emissions, is it a target for that for the company as well. how do you look at it in terms of a cost perspective? how will this cost you, this decarbonization? i will end up paying for it -- who will end up paying for it? kao: there is no more cheap ticket in the airline. every cost is going skyhigh already, especially for those ground agents and the overflight permits and this one, how to reduce the hours of carbon

dioxide that i think this needs to be a lot of work for that stuff. the sustainable fuel aviation, fuel, about the fuel they are using now. we are doing our best to make it a perfect tool, try to compensate these kinds of increasing costs. i think the passenger needs to pay some part of it and to try to make that earth more healthy. haidi: that is kao shing-hwang speaking exclusively to labor markets. -- two bloomberg markets. better than expected problem for the last quarter with an income of more than doubling to just over five $500 million.

cost-cutting efforts and a focus on more expensive mobile devices improved margins at offset a slowing smartphone market. ping sees new value almost 3% up from around 9% in the first quarter, tiny ev maker neo had big early declines in new york after a wider than estimated loss as deliveries came in at the low end of target, its loss was $31 million, more than double the same last year. is it for david australia, daybreak asia is next, as it is in fort daybreak -- that is it for daybreak australia, daybreak asia is next. this is bloomberg. ♪

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