trading day. balance of power every day at i would suggwldlife territory. 5:00 p.m. eastern time only on i would suggest it's early in the season. my amateur take, is we will see bloomberg, your global business authority. ♪ a lot more of this. jonathan: it's to be expected >> since the beginning of this but if the frequency becomes hiking cycle, we've tried to say more and more severe, it gets a soft landing is the most likely outcome. >> we are clearly no where near harder and more difficult to build in these areas. tom: i believe the governor of where the fed wants is to be on inflation. >> the fed is looking for an florida had a tree fall on or excuse not to hike. around his house. >> the fed has already signaled they will lower rates by 100 miss's dissent is how to make a comment on this frightening thing. -- mrs. desantis had to make a basis points next year. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa comment on this frightening abramowicz. jonathan: live from new york thing. kailey: there is no tree tall of city this morning, good morning, duff -- tall enough to reach good morning for our audience tom's apartment. jonathan: i get the feeling this worldwide, this is bloomberg surveillance on tv and radio. is someone about the control room. tom: this is serious stuff and there is only one reason for one word today and it's for this there's a lot going on. guy. i look at franklin and if i was 7:45 a.m. eastern time, f1

going to bermuda this weekend, i would cancel the flight. champion, one of the best to ever do it, that interview just >> the 10 year treasury in my line -- mind -- i do think if we around the corner. tom: this is a pleasure for us they have little pink cottages on the west side of cambridge. and thank you for getting this done for formula one. get it back to 10%, it won't you just say no to bermuda this happen this year. week. it will be a first half of 2024 jonathan: i was going to bermuda event. he comes out and says mr.versta i think there is a significant and i'm not going any longer, mismatch between the primary are we done now? buyers and treasuries and the ppen wants lewis as his teammate. tom: franklin is not going to increment players. bermuda. bonds, currencies and jonathan: how do we go back to commodities today and we are doing formula one. talking about treasuries after jonathan: nine consecutive race that? the chief economist at axion tom: we need the context. wins and can he make it 10? jonathan: we almost asked him joins us. what is the question you would about the treasury market. i've got no idea what's going on i hate that stuff. ask christine lagarde right now? in the markets and i don't know >> the question everyone has on what that data looks like. tom: max, are you taking event tom: that will be a lot of fun. of text reebonz? their minds is now that we know jonathan:, what do think about the two-year? that monetary policy is being this guy is bigger than the yields are a little lower, down transmitted to the economy, can you afford to stop? two basis points. sport. jonathan: he is so dominant right now. tom: like maybe tom brady but a big change in the last week.

more than that. the equity market, slightly it's absolutely unique. jonathan: that's coming up later yes, we now know that monetary elevated, positive by a four day policy is working and it's but we have to talk about the data. wingstreet. let's get you up to speed. worked through the economy which an headline after headline from yesterday, we had more economic is not doing well and they can china in the last hour. be reassured on that side but kailey: we already knew this for now, there is no data in america with a softer might happen. adp print which encouraged the china has approved a rate cut on acknowledgment on inflation and this is the big issue we have. existing mortgages for first bills to go further. homes. this morning, europe is in a we have more slowdown than the the pboc lowering down payments u.s. but still with more inflation and that's the completely different situation. for first and second time home connector for the ecb. cpi in europe, we have a tom: is it really economy problem? kailey: 5.3% on the headline buyers, trying to stoke the rigidities where is it that property market which is year on year for care and core struggling. there is no fiscal offset to a you also had headlines earlier came in line which is well above combined monetary policy? today about raising tax breaks >> it might be due to the ecb target of 2%. for child care. it is one thing after another. yet you see the weaker euro on rigidities. tom: can i ask the dumb question the back of this. the impression we have is in the of the day? doesn't the government, given a $1.08 and they are talking about the growth risk. u.s., the market reacts faster totalitarian regime with unique does the ecb choose to fight the and wage bargaining reacts inflation side or support the faster. control, step in and bail them the negotiations are more on an out? growth side as they look ahead kailey: if you listen to a to their meeting next month? individual basis in europe. jonathan: completely if the market is doing well, bloomberg economics, it is too noncommittal going into big. september 14. people go to their employers and tom: i don't buy it. they asked for more pay and that's how you get to wage jonathan: we got a stronger growth.

the minute the economy slows chinese currency off the back of down a little bit, wage growth some of these measures so slowly president lagarde in your conversation last weekend told also normally starts slowing starting to pile up, is it going us a lot. down. it's not the way it works and tom: they will keep their to make a difference? lots of european countries but you have some form of options open until september 14 is it about ability or but it's until the end of the centralized negotiation at least year really. willingness to? to the point of stagflation, no one talks about this but they at the level of each industry. you have a lag between the time tom: willingness. think about euro-sclerosis. the unions get aware that the situation is getting worse and he almost walked off the set. get aware that maybe employment what a day it has been. have they escaped double digit is now in jeopardy and they try we are going to migrate to this, cameron dawson joining us, the inflation? what does the new europe look cio at red bull formula one like? jonathan: they say stagflation. to moderate their claims. it takes longer and it's a situation where we are in racing. thank you for your patience with i wonder if that gets used more germany which is at the top of max. and more and i wonder if it you got one sentence and you go comes up at the news conference inflation across countries and to the heart of it. september is the worst month. the euro zone. in frankfurt, germany in a couple of weeks time. you can see the economy is not and yet you are hardwired tom: equity markets, the end of doing well at all and germany was in recession at the end of optimistic. you got to be in the market. do you go to cash in september? august is terrible. last year in the beginning of this year. people have not yet seen the cameron: no. it's simple, this is the math it is because it is below from the 2021 hike, down 6%. effect on labor market and which average returns. it is not necessarily that it's negotiations remain tense and we all going to implode. can still see wage growth the dow down 7% and the nasdaq even the correction in august exceeding whatever the ecb would was below average, so small in which usually lags in a tough probably want to tolerate. its magnitude.

it does not warrant making big market down 6% as well. we are at this level, waiting jonathan: down one point 6% on for the labor market to catch a portfolio changes. at the end of the day, this has the s&p 500 this month. not been about growth. cold so we can actually stop we have seen growth estimates the biggest month of losses in going up in recent weeks and i the first month of losses since this acceleration of wages. february potentially. kailey: and also inflation. think that is one reason for the let's get to the price action, shorter, shallow corrections. it is when the revision cycle equities slightly elevated on turns down that you should be the s&p 500, yields coming in to your point about it not more concerned of a deeper hitting inflation, the correction. with tons of data later and we tightening showing up in the jonathan: we played the clip, are down 2% on the 10 year. economy. is it a matter of the tools not the 10 year, my words that he -- kailey: looking at the euro at being fit for the job at this time? i put in his mouth. the one dollar eight cents is it not working as well, that do you agree it is a screaming level, we will potentially get by? transmission mechanism? more clues what's happening in >> i don't think so. the euro zone at 7:30 a.m. the transmission of the monetary --buy? eastern time when we get the account of the july 27 meeting. policy to the real economy works cameron: if it is, then the pretty well, little too well i will we get a clue on what will other is a screaming cell. happen at the september 14 would say if you look at the have to see a much weaker meeting? they had been reluctant to speed which are indicators are economic environment, he would slowing down at the moment. need to see the whites of the eyes of a recession and that pre-commit but how are they likely means that those earning thinking about the growth side for instance, we have had credit relative to the inflation side spread growth. of the equation? at 8:30 a.m. eastern time, more projections for 2024, which have about low double-digit growth, it's negative in terms of great economic data stateside, jobless impose and you can see that the are way too high. if the 10 year goes back to 3%, claims in personal income and spending and the feds preferred flow of new loans to the household sector is now

connected. we think it would be bad for inflation gauge, the pce risk assets. deflator. there is a collective response kailey: do you see that headline and core expected to from households and banks and recession? come in more subdued in july. cameron: not yet. after the bell, earnings season from the corporate sector and there is discussion about gdp is not over. interest rates are higher. that works. versus gdi, if it will catch we still have a few names left what is still not working or not to go -- broadcom will be down and what is the underlying showing up in the numbers is the growth rate. reporting and this will be a but for now we don't see enough read through how much this is connection between the slow down then a fitting from the ai buzz evidence that a recession is evident -- eminent. that we cannot get away from. in prices. kailey: it doesn't seem like jonathan: a busy day ahead going if we do have one in the fourth quarter it is more of a 2024 into the weekend. it's working as much on the inflation front in particular scenario, which means it is not the chief investment strategist but how much of this is just a being pricing yet. kailey: if we don't have one, meant at oppenheimer joins us product of energy especially in now. let's talk about why you are still so bullish. light of what we see with l&g couldn't that mean the fed has to do more and has to force it there is a feeling this week and concerns about supply? anyway? cameron: it is peculiar. that bad news is somewhat good does that have the potential to news. get worse? is there a tipping point when that is what happened in 2023. >> inflation is very much driven bad news becomes bad news? >> thanks for having me on the the fed has had to do more than what was projected. show. by energy in many companies. the bond market has had to it's always great to be on pricing more hikes and less surveillance. cuts. have seen yields go up. when we look at it, things continue to get better yields, the pricing of the we need to monitor this because offsetting negativity. summer 2023 fed rate has gone up 170 basis points since the march that's why bad news has been low. good news. if we have up hard winter, you we are seeing the economy is since that time, the nasdaq

genuinely slowing some but it's could have more pressure on lng multiple is up already 6%. so i don't know going forward if not falling off a cliff. prices and another wave of inflation. whether is the consumer or jobs, the path of the fed matters as what is probably more problematic for the ecb's core much for equity evaluations as whether it's q2 earnings even it did in 21 or 22. though you had a drop in earnings on the s&p 500 last i inflation, excluding food and tom: we talked about the cost of looked at my bloomberg, -6% on energy come is not doing that well either. real estate, renting, the we've had a deceleration and the quarter. struggle for a huge body of america to find a down payment it's three sectors that have lost 20 points of core inflation in august. for real estate. we got a huge response on that been negative in earnings growth over the last three or four months, we are in a channel discussion. do you advocate margin here and its energy, materials and health care. slightly above 5%. it's not tech or consumer within this bull market? discretionary. it's not slowing down so yes, tom: you've been one of the this question does not, enough. energy matters but what is everybody is selling the idea of great bulls, where are you now? clearly making it really hard to leveraged up, options margin. deal with his core inflation >> 4900 for the end of the year do you advocate using margin continues to be too high. remains our target. that's the big difference in the within the growth scare? we did lower our projection on u.s. and you can see the core earnings for this year from 230 inflation heading down. cameron: it is more expensive tom: in america, we have than a few years ago given that down to 220 but over all, we rates are higher. so you have to factor that into domestic final sales which takes the equation. away the foreign component. if you take out the you can see measures in the data about the usage of margin debt support the s&p 500 to remain off of the 2020 peaks, which is export/import dynamics of the relatively even. tom: what do you need to do to euro, do they have a not surprising. the real question is how much is

constructive thomistic final get to 5000? being replaced by options, a >> you are egging me on. sales or does it scream recession? form of margin. >> i would need to do the i think we need to have some so you have seen so much option calculation but consumption is already slowing down. activity, surging call options, remarkable news related to the so it margin is always something that's happening in a number of fed's achievements against countries and where consumption you have to play with very carefully. of course it can work against inflation, real clear signal you quickly. tom: sheep memorized that. is an engine of growth like france. that it's the end of the cycle we've had good gdp but if you with a pause but not because the she just nailed it. jonathan: profit margins, dollar look at consumer spending, it's economy is falling apart but it basically been flat since the has achieved its goal. general. they have basically said i don't think that happens this end of last year. earnings are going to tumble as much is 34% on per-share basis year but i think it happens next there is no real surprise there year. kailey: next year is when the during the fiscal year. and real income has been properly damaged by the they are not alone. inflation wave. are you taking with the market increasingly is expecting retailers are saying seriously? the fed to start cutting wage growth is problematic but is this more important than what it has not been as strong as the hard data is telling us, it's been in the u.s.. which is retail consumption is rates3+. if we get to 4900 are potentially 5000, can we stay up real wages have taken a hit from good? there if the reason they are cutting is because things have six month ago. turned south and the tightening domestic demand is not doing cameron: some retailers have has taken more of an effect than particularly well. pricing power and some don't. there might be another dollar general public falls into they would have wanted to if difference between the u.s. and they overshoot. >> the key word there is things the eurozone which is the category where the elasticity of the demand of their customers is different have turned south. investments. than the higher end retail where things have basically gone so that's one of my biggest that we are entering a period of surprises when i look at the they can continue to push price. u.s. is the resilience of investment. they can continue to pass on

sustainable economic growth and it might be due to the fact that higher costs to their customers. a slow or moderate pace. the areas where you don't have some corporations are responding to the ira push. pricing power is where you are seeing the margin pressure. i don't think we will be seeing kailey: we were talking up the we don't really have something the fed cut drastically. close to that in europe. this might be -- when we look at areas within discretionary and we have no european package but pricing power, travel. it's fairly slow and it has not yet made its way through the airlines have been able to it, the inflation is caused by exercise pricing power in a overstimulation of fiscal policy material way as we have seen economy. demand recover. is what we look at. that might be another difference across the western regions. he pointed to this week, when we jonathan: what a difficult time two administrations did that and got the consumer confidence data they were concerned about the that was weaker, people were effects of covid on the economy for the ecb into next month. still willing to travel. put on their credit card. jonathan: i don't know whether and likely all that stimulation thank you so much for being with is what is enabling us to get through this period of the fed us. to believe that data. september 14 for the easy be -- i wonder if they just put that for the ecb. funds hike cycle. the fed decision is so much more we think at this point, this together. are we going to see that boom straightforward. tom: absolutely. continued? continues to be a workout market. jonathan: we have no idea what cameron: that fear of missing out israel. the concerts, hot girls summer it has considerable uncertainty the proper response will be from president lagarde and company coming to an end. include -- in terms of its at the end of the day, the outcome public -- but we wouldn't bet against the question is can the consumer september 14. tom: taylor swift on may 14 next continue to live beyond means? american consumer or american business or the american we have seen credit usage go up, economy. year, how many americans will go but it is the savings rate to paris? the sunlight is at the end of can you imagine kailey flying coming down and the savings the tunnel and it's not an balance that has been whittled down. oncoming locomotive. jonathan: you said don't bet tom: can you see how a chill

over to paris to see taylor swift? kailey: i hope so. came into our office? against the american consumer tom: i have section 401 which is i saw them walk by, the high and plenty of retailers have plenty of issues in the last couple of weeks. somewhere near marseille. interest rates. what do you read into that? >> most certainly and yet when it shows up, if we get his consumer discretionary as a sector is doing very well. $776 per seat. world of higher interest rates, i think it reflects the services what does that do to your stock end of the economy versus the they go over there to get it portfolio? cheaper. goods. jonathan: some tickets here are cameron: it does increasingly a lot of that is related to this create a challenge. tens of thousands? but we have seen this divergence time in the cycle where it's an kailey: i think so considering the resale ticketmaster fiasco of yields and growth valuations. experiential adventure for the consumer in many ways. in the past, we would say that recently. if yields continue to climb the consumer has slowed and if higher, we should be concerned you look at the individual that growth evaluation is retailers, it has to do with who trading near 2021 highs and it is balancing e-commerce and what's the difference between spending that on a concert and the difference to seemessier would not be sustainable. if yields are higher because bricks and mortar or e-commerce growth is better, inflation is in some touch with the consumer higher, that is good for the jonathan: jonathan: play? earnings side of the scenario. where can i begin? then you get that offset from and meeting the consumer needs. valuation. tom: what do you do with big jonathan: the eras tour was one tech? they had a big gain so do you how can you compare taylor swift of the most meaningful to the beatles? have a rationalization of owning or the rolling stones, come on? experiences of my life so far. it is coming to the big screen, those big seven stocks where you experience it in north america. take a terminal value on three years, five years and hold your v maxerstappen an hour away, cameron: this is taylor swift.

nose and say let's go? jonathan: a direct quote. >> it's not quite hold your nose but it's taking a look at the tom: what is a friendship from new york, this is bloomberg. companies and consider what ♪ bracelet? businesses they have better deeply embedded in the lives of have you seen her? the consumer as well as in cameron: i have not. business that amongst those big tom: paris tickets in may of next year, a decency is $900 and seven, it's a fairly recurring trend uc or a trend that keeps somewhere near leon is $100. rolling forward and upward. jonathan: the next hour on companies that are deeply embedded in our lives as consumers and business people bloomberg tv, the chief investment officer, we will remain embed it's a revenue catch up with joanne feeney of growth is likely to continue. advisors capital management. jack caffrey of jp morgan. it will ebb and flow at different points in the -- and tom: if you paste that much to the general trend is parallel to the irs, do we get to pay less taxes? jonathan: if only it worked out way. where the automobile was in the a good idea. early 20th century after ford had essentially improve the tom: she's doing barbie, except it is taylor. jonathan: the tour goes to the manufacturing process to movies. this is increase the ability of the

automobile in terms of quality and lower the price. technology is easily accessible and that makes it deeply embedded in our lives and it's profitable. kailey: what role does the small group of stocks play in the 400 point gap between week -- between where we are now and getting to 4500? can they continue to provide that leadership? >> in essence, you've got to realize that technology is not unto itself. it contributes to all 11 sectors. within the 11 sectors, we own some industrial stocks but i can't mention the names. we on stocks in the industrial sector and consumer discretionary within the space of other sectors that have done remarkably well.

it just has to do -- it's a combination of alpha generation as well as playing the broader sectors. jonathan: can you describe in j.p. morgan wealth management knows it's easy to get lost in investment research. get help with j.p morgan personal advisors. greater detail what's within hey, david! ready to get started? work with advisors who create a plan with you, and help you find the right investments. so great getting to know you, let's take a look at your new investment plan. ok, great! this should have you moving in the right direction. thanks jen. get ongoing advice; and manage your investments in the chase mobile app. wake up, achievers. anyou're making the most of every hour of your life. except the hours that you're sleeping. so why do we leave so much untapped potential on the table? this is a next level bed, for a next level you. my circadian rhythm is kicking your circadian rhythms butt! it's not a competition. i know, but i'm still winning! so, it is a competition. save 50% on the sleep number limited edition smart bed. plus, free home delivery when you add a base. shop now only at sleep number. >> the real story is still china. consumer discretionary given i think people underestimate that it's such a broad space? >> within consumer china's desire to sell their own discretionary, it has to do with goods and their own brands. leisure stocks, it has to do when we examined their day to with stocks related to gaming, day, they are clearly experiencing trouble and they will do something to fix that but i think it will have to be to travel and it has to do with pushing their brands globally. jonathan: i love catching up the electrification of the automobile and the process of that transition that's reflected with peter tchir. within all kinds of products. it also -- there is a certain great to get his perspective. element coming up where there is a back to the office trend that tom: the south china sea in this is not back to the office like we used to be but certainly where people are coming out of overwhelming slowdown in the chinese economy hasn't gone their cages and going back to a away, the south china sea more normalized environment when

conflict. they show up at the office three days a week. jonathan: good to hear from you he says you have two full as always. geopolitics into your belief. part of that was rolling up on from morgan stanley -- real month number nine or everybody is waxing philosophical about consumer spending is tracking international equities. jonathan: they said china would one point 9% quarter on quarter get it done. annualized growth. tom: they said the dollar would we estimate barbiehammer and the weeken -- we can. it's going back-and-forth. beyoncé tour are contributing 3% i'm reading about max verstapp growth in this quarter. en. after that it will fade from here. tom: it's the summer season and jonathan: you've been distracted for the last 45 minutes. tom: the iphone is an ecosystem all that. it's insane what people are and samsung is a traditional doing. they are traveling to europe to competitor and you are fired up about the anti-fingerprint black see taylor swift. version, sandblast, the elegance they get on an airplane and go see her. of jade into the palm of your jonathan: maybe argentina? hand. jonathan: what is it called? tom: it's a p-60 pro mate or kailey: basically anywhere that's not the united states.

something and this is while way? tom: it's cheaper to go to dublin than here. what if you bring in alex webb. jonathan: a bloomberg quicktake jonathan: in some places it's joins us now. how much of a china challenge cheaper to get a flight there. tom: afterthought is in the are we about to get to apple at the moment? >> it looks like it is a big studio today. play from wall way to take the the apple store is 642 steps battle to apple. away and they are open 20 47. the fact that they been able to make this is quite remarkable. it's the barbie airpods max. while way is been a subject of jonathan: i'm sorry, what? significant u.s. sanctions not tom: $499 for your pods. least targeting their access to jonathan: just for headphones. semiconductors and some of the stuff is on their five but this wow. includes reports of a five i need it cool at night. you trying to ice me out of the bed? baby, only on game nights. you know you are retired right? am i? ya! the queen sleep number c2 smart bed is now only $999. plus free home delivery when you add a base shop now only at sleep number. get help reaching your goals with j.p. morgan wealth plan, a digital money coach in the chase mobile® app. use it to set and track your goals, big and small... ♪ and see how changes you make today... could help put them within reach. from your first big move to retiring poolside - and the other goals along the way. wealth plan can help get you there. ♪ j.p. morgan wealth management. was also the first time you heard of a town named dinosaur, colorado. we just got an order from dinosaur, colorado. start an easy to build, powerful website for free with a partner that always puts you first. start for free at godaddy.com hi, i'm jason and i've lost 202 pounds on golo. so the first time i ever seen a golo advertisement, with a partner that always puts you first. i said, "yeah, whatever. there's no way this works like this." and threw it to the side. a couple weeks later, i seen it again after getting not so pleasant news from my physician. i was 424 pounds, and my doctor was recommending weight loss surgery. to avoid the surgery, i had to make a change. so i decided to go with golo and it's changed my life. nanometer chip. when i first started golo and taking release, my cravings, they went away. and i was so surprised. you feel that your body is working and functioning the way it should be and you feel energized. golo has improved my life in so many ways. i'm able to stand and actually make dinner. i'm able to clean my house. i'm able to do just simple tasks that a lot of people call simple, but when you're extremely heavy they're not so simple. golo is real and when you take release and follow the plan, it works. tom: bloomberg surveillance, on the break, kailey leinz with the broad assumption was the milan, nonstop to go see monza. chinese companies and wallowing in particular could not get this you and max. technology anymore. it is a big deal. one thing that may be will help thank you to our team for the is can they make these to scale, conversation with him. the same as apple? we are trying to get back on there is a suspicion that maybe keel with michael mckee. it is a raft, a slew of data they stockpiled a bunch of these

chips before sanctions kicked in today. and they are exhausting those personal income and spending is reserves. we don't really know. what i'm looking at. it is fascinating that they been launching our data, slow to come able to make this. jonathan: is it a coincidence out on pre-labor day. the rollout coincides with the michael mckee, as the wheels visit from the commerce secretary? turn in washington, to tell us >> it certainly looks that way what is going on in america. but it's nonetheless timely that michael: jobless claims at the it's happened. top of our list, 228,000 down from 230 the week before, the the commerce secretary ross mondo -- gina raimondo has tried unrevised number. a revised number, i will get that. it's a human claims rise to to resist china's access to 1,725,000 from 1702, not a big semiconductors but doesn't deal. necessarily mean that she is the it does suggest the labor market biggest champion for them. is fairly tight. she's the conduit with the u.s. we are not letting people go. personal income up .2%, less semiconductor industry which did than the prior month. not want these sanctions. they want to have access to the and personal spending up .8, biggest market for this sort of technology. she certainly was the messenger higher than last month in june, who had to convey to them that they were going to bring in higher than the estimate of these seven actions. 7/10. -- .7%. tom: is while way cool and so folks on the atlanta fed

doing some copulations. samsung cool or apple in london the fed favorite inflation numbers, up .2% during the month or shanghai? who has the upper hand with the kids? >> apple for a long time now has of july. on a year-over-year basis, it is been the core player in the up 3.3%, exactly as forecast, space. there is a time when tech higher than the 3.0. efficient autos were massively this is based effects that are happening. the fact that it is .2% -- .2, into android for the ability to is basically what the fed wants personalize various things. to see. then there was the realization you're not seeing acceleration of inflation, the same with the that android is a google product core. it is up 4.2%, also bang on and they have perhaps greater expectations. exposure to the google advertising machine. tom: what else do you see? apple has stolen a bit of a i got the market lifting up, a margin upfront. four day lift, i don't know if i if you want a full double phone can describe the data, the vix comes in 13.75. which are the -- a foldable >> will have around 3000 jobs what does this due to atlanta gdp? phone, maybe apple will develop are we getting away from this five plus x? something similar. with redundancy over the next in china, i don't know if huawei few years. has the cool factor. michael: not with these numbers. there is a huge push internally personal consumption numbers are 1000 are in relation to our higher so we would expect them to still be in the high five, decision to integrate the swiss bank. to champion their home-grown

maybe into six. i don't know what the waiting is if we would have chosen to spin products and maybe this helps. off the swiss bank, we would there might be scarcity gimmicks for this. everybody expects it to go down have had to reduce it by 600. -- given some of the factors we as the third quarter progresses just discussed. kailey: to me this is about because this is only the first jonathan: the ubs ceo putting a month. while way versus apple but it's the revised jobless claims for number on it, number we haven't also the u.s. versus china. last week were 232. if you look at the editorial in heard before. the global times, they say the the funny thing about jobless claims, the training wheels of 3000, does that sound like a resurgence of the huawei smart economic indicators, but you can large number to you for credit never make a great production phone after three years of suisse? silence is enough to -- to prove because they always revised the tom: the rule of thumb is you previous number. but what it does show is that that the u.s. suppression has claims went down significantly failed. from the prior week. get a three year work out on any church -- on any takeover. they also is part of the tom: that means it is a better u.s.-china tech war and labor economy than the gloom, they have massive politics and foreshadowing the final outcome. they will pop a 10,000 number right? what are you thoughts about this which is bigger than 9000. and being about a u.s.-china michael: i don't of that there tech war? >> that certainly is the most is gloom. everybody is looking at a tight they will come in short and they labor market. will try and chat out. interesting part of this we are seeing a deceleration of phenomenon. job creation but we are not a little bit of drift away here let's talk about the five nanometer chips. seeing a rise in on appointment. and you see another thousand or we don't know that they are in maybe another 3002 or three the phone but they might be. years out and they will take tom: michael mckee here with a their time doing it. if they are, these are chips serious set of data, including . jonathan: they are decent the chicago pmi and onto jobs that if they can make them to scale, you need to have the numbers this morning. tomorrow. that will be fascinating.

the s&p 500 is positive by 0.1% bleeding edge which are made by go beneath the headline and data, kailey leinz will not be on a four day winning streak. here, we several it's will not looking to make it five and the one company in the world, a longest winning streak so far dutch company. be here. since the middle of july and they are not allowed to sell is trimming the losses of august into china so either china's -- lisa abramowicz will not be here. down to 1.6% and potentially the managed to find a way to make jonathan ferro will not be here. them without these machines or michael: i was sticking up first monthly loss going back to asking for the day off. they managed to find a february on the s&p 500. workaround to get there from let tom handle it all himself. tom: the vix is 13.19. elsewhere. or there is the possibility they michael: katie greifeld will show up and we will have a sophisticates will say there is been stockpiling. tom: tim cook of apple has said crypto jobs day. some volatility with things i don't understand the vix is privacy is our most essential now we are going to migrate to 13.91. battle. the conversation on economics. it was 31 in october in the bear discuss that right now, where it is not what the economist but market. with andrew of citigroup who are we in 24 months on our most it's simple math, we've gone essential battle? >> when 10 cook says something from 31 to 13 and we should be joins us. standing up on the tables interesting. celebrating. a lot of talk about the like that come he does that -- i don't feel that out there. jonathan: china is seeking to with having the biggest conviction. will give you a little history. capacitor and smartphones in there is a character and culture mind and that is google. boost consumption through personal income tax breaks. google makes a huge amount of to each school and the character how many headlines like this of culture of mid 20th century money from advertising. have we seen from china? ucla economics was one of one after another in the last they use some of your browsing few weeks. and data to do so. courage. tom: in this case it's to the when he says something like an entrenched faculty pushing that, he is very much setting up

against the freshwater economist, pushing against those consumer and the people in china as the anti-google when it comes liberals up in new england as to smartphones. but i'm most interested in what apple has done huge amounts of they do with enterprises which they are. crackdown on that. they were different at ucla. have come back strong under president xi. a guy who died in 88 last year, it's hard for them to pull when was -- when will we see information from iphones without he was a hero in my house and someone once said to me he was strong things on debt? permission. the marine coming out of the there has been progress on that jonathan: the fiscal pushes the trenches. front but there remains a huge amount of seepage. tom: is his most essential big one we've been waiting for andrew has been the marine in answer hint that maybe we are this odd on fed cycle. battle and advanced -- an leaning further in that you have taken shrapnel for your direction. tom: what to they do with chico? advantage to him in china? high-yield call. people are like no. china has been apple's second i can't concentrate. yet you reaffirm the fed higher most important market after this morning. north america. it hasn't been growing at the andrew: if you look at the villanova at auto sport says max economic data -- the first time same pace it had been canada for wants sir lewis to be his to get on the wrong side of the on the show. thanks. partner but then what to they chinese administration. if you look at the economic it employs millions of people with chico? jonathan: checo. data, it keeps coming in, showing a tight labor market. tom: he's killing it, whatever. we keep getting these numbers and china directly and indirectly. from spending. i don't think we're going to get it's in china's interest to keep jonathan: he is a former driver. apple sweet but many things five or 6% gdp this quarter but apple has done a been redus like probably at least 2%, maybe 3% tom: i don't care. meg -- making it harder to download vpn apps to circumvent gdp growth. you did hear some of that coming out of jackson hole.

the great chinese firewall. look at the core inflation jonathan runs the interview and numbers, they have slowed for a i've got one question to put in. couple of months, that is good they use cloud servers because news. jonathan: ok, one hour and 20 headline inflation has slowed so the suspicions that means it's there is good news in terms of easier for the chinese minutes away. tom: someone who is esoteric and government to monitor that data. price pressure that is more subdued. but when you look at this it has made plenty of steps to economy, the tight labor market, keep the chinese government, to it is going to drive wages and as wonderful as max verstappen wages are going to drive prices. ensure they don't get on the wrong side of the chinese government. tom: the academics goes to bank and he knows swiss banking and jonathan: what happened to apple provides journalistic services of england. to bloomberg. were you surprised by these olivia calls it other factors. announcements? making the user experience you by the bank and it's a shotgun marriage, you know about seamless? one of the other factors that they just change things all the the low yield and rate cut time. tom: around the house, i have funny accounting, am i supposed people get wrong? to be surprised at a $29 billion like three cables going. statistic? i don't know what to plug into. >> absolutely not. jonathan: it's ridiculous, alex, >> the other factors include some of the domestic strike, not we all know they brought dez thank you. let's talk nebraska volleyball. just the tight labor market but bought credit suisse on the tom: i said v maxerstappen or the type housing market. cheap. there is a lot associated with you described this cycle as that and the 29 billion dollars being odd and it certainly is. usually you would think mortgage is not very surprising but when you -- what you can be surprised volleyball? jonathan: this is the most rates move higher, we get a slowdown in house prices. is how firm the management of watched female sporting event ever with a little more than but the issue is supply has ubs already is in their idea 92,000 people packed into that become more constrained in the

envision how they want the arena. housing sector then demand. merger to play out. i didn't think this was real and then i saw it on espn. it was a shotgun marriage and so those households that have an unbelievable. existing home paying a 3% barely six months ago and i feel tom: you go to chicago and you mortgage rate, not a lot of incentive to put that home on they are getting of good content drive on i-80 and denver is 580 the market. and good ideas how they want to shape up the bank position and the price index came out this miles. week. we are close to double-digit somewhere in there is nebraska that's surprising that they are able to do this. and it's basically omaha and percentage increases on an tom: you people are gossiping at lincoln and university of omaha. annual basis and it is not going to be consistent with 2% inflation. jonathan: you are saying there's kailey: there is no inventory. how credit suisse can survive. nothing else to do there? tom: nothing else except did many people from credit you are seeing the bifurcation suisse survive? volleyball. and housing. >> for the time being, that's on the subject of demand outside still the case. they are very long on linebackers. of housing and coming back to we heard they are cutting 3000 kailey: tickets reach is much as the data with personal spending up .8%, at the same time, the jobs in switzerland and it's personal income grew less than $400 on the secondary market. probably not the end of the jonathan: how did this come about? number. kailey: i don't know. expected. how much longer could the u.s. we will get something much jonathan: they decided to break higher than they will feed this consumer live above their means to the market and politicians to a record or is the team that if we are talking about a the general public step-by-step good? savings pilot has dwindled, tom: there is a lot of red. which was helping fuel this in not to lose their cover for the the first place, and your income jonathan: do we know who won the merger to create any storm they not growing as fast, wages don't want. game? kailey: nebraska one 3-0. they also feel while they are barely keeping up with inflation? isn't the spending going to have giving us a good idea on how the to come to a halt? jonathan: is that good in bank will be positioned, they andrew: don't forget student loan repayments. haven't figured out all the volleyball? i have no idea.

details. tom: did you satan 90,000? there are some headwinds the we heard the ceo saying he consumer is facing. jonathan: 92,000, more than what has happened though is we had such an extended period of surprised by how many good low interest rates, an extended additional businesses they are that. period of ample liquidity. tom: are you pumped for college bringing in their fitting into football? the overall picture. you saw credit card debt go down i think they haven't fully virginia, tennessee saturday. significant during the pandemic. figured out where they want to be there. keep the talent and where they now you are seeing to latency have the overlap they need to rates getting back to normal get rid of. kailey: what timeline orange bowties three days in a ones we would expect in a rope. normally a function does realistically are we looking at -- in a rope. and how much longer will this jonathan: jay pelosky is coming normally functioning economy. take? >> it's still going to take as the fed leaves rates higher, we are going to see more years, that's for sure. tightening of credit, a headwind up. ♪ for consumers. they are doing the right thing eventually that will slow the in terms of giving us economy. you could see a significant step-by-step and on every meeting they are speaking, economic slowdown into a 24, perhaps a recession. they're giving us something to deal with and shows us which but you have to take seriously the data coming in and we still direction the bank is heading. until we get the final picture, see this strong spending. the merger will be next year or .8% up on personal spending. 2025 until they have figured everything out. they promised to give us more a really strong consumer. details on the fourth quarter earnings in january or february kailey: if we do get the recession year put not to of next year so that's the next milestone to watch. percent inflation, the federal the ceo also said this plenty of reserve tolerate the pain?

andrew: that is a tough time to speak to each other in scenario. case there are questions until if you get a significant enough third quarter earnings. slowdown, you will see some deflationary pressure. they understand the market is we could have an accented period desperate for information and wants to see every new of time where you see the development and they have economy slowing. understood this and i'm pretty you see this with credit that is sure that if they have good tightening already. we have some signs that things news, they will feed this to us are going to slow eventually. step-by-step and as early as if inflation was at 2%, the fed possible. kailey: where are the potential might be more comfortable opportunities for bad news were risks? >> there are plenty. thinking about cutting rates. i think what we heard from chair the ceo said on the call that powell at jackson week -- jackson hole last week was that although they will be attended they are not pointing -- to growth and inflation, they have to concentrate on the painting a blue skies scenario. there are obstacles and one is upside risks to inflation. was -- with the risk-weighted we so have various measures of core underlying inflation assets outsourced, 55 billion running too high and that means there could be a period of time where you see weaker growth data dollars so it's a lot of stuff in the fed is holding rates that can't -- that can potentially blow up. they still don't know how the higher. tom: richard clarida has identified. markets will behave. we are not want to do the math -- i can't. we need at least two or three but the bottom line is, that more quarters to see if the trend is sustained. article from years ago beyond

they were short on details on the eight models, he and a team telling us how you want to win really go after the math back the clients and how you certitude and the andrew hallman want to align your business in horse world. certain areas. it's a bit much to ask after six -- the andrew world. we know what we are doing? months since the merger was announced but more details would be helpful and there are some andrew: that is one of the big areas where they could surprise. challenges. tom: who is their arch what is the theoretical framework we are using to assess competitor? the economy and monetary policy? i would say deutsche bank but you heard powell .2 that who are they competing against, uncertainty in his comments. other swiss banks i don't know or do -- or deutsche bank or jp as a non-economist. morgan? >> that's a good question. he talked about this navigating according to the stars under a they have nobody on the same cloudy sky. level in europe but you have a lot of nich players. the underlying neutral rate of interest that would neither be they will try to benefit off the restrictive nor stimulative. client behavior and they will the underlying natural rate of unappointed. these are important here radical not have a concentration risk concepts but we don't have a good way of evaluating them in but everybody will try to get it real time. we don't know where they are so piece of the cake here. it is going to be responding to the data, it comes back to dependency. every european bank wants to if you don't have the framework,

you follow the data. watch this merger closely kailey: monetary policy can be because you suddenly see even though it was forced, it somehow tricky. seems to work. can i ask about fiscal policy? you now have a major bank here with like $5 trillion of assets we have not yet seen things like the inflation reduction act under management. you need to compete against them being realized in the economy and making a difference. so for the big players out at what point does what could be there, you might want to a driver become a drag because consider a merger as well to get the fed might have to respond to to the same scale but competing those new injections? against ubs seems to be an andrew: we're starting to see upward battle. some things in the data that are jonathan: didn't they get a at least suggestive. we did see stronger investment in manufacturing, may be related partner for free? >> you could come to that to the chips act. but these are going to take a long time to play out and it conclusion. will take time for that money to come into the economy. the price was very cheap but at the end of the day, the fed there are still risks associated with this merger and is not a is not going to look at fiscal done deal yet but it looks well policy and try to directly for the time being. offset it with monetary policy. you can see the final quarter kailey: not their business. had a $10 billion loss in it, >> since the beginning of this andrew: exactly. swiss francs loss. they will look at the data like there is a huge burden they now hiking cycle, we try to say is we got today. soft landing is the most likely if inflation stays cooler, that have on the balance sheet. outcome. >> we are clearly nowhere near is great news and more reason to there are 55 billion dollars in think the fed can be more where the fed is on -- where the dovish. i think they are comfortable

fed want to be on inflation. this non-core unit they need to run down. >> the fed is looking for an with the level of policy rates. they still don't know how we still think they're probably clients will behave so is excuse not to hike. >> the fed has signaled they going to hike in november. looking good now and they are but that is probably the end of doing the right things but this will cut rates by 100 basis the cycle and it comes back to is not on dry paper and still points next year. >> i think we close the door on the question of when do they make that first cut? something could go wrong. a september fed hike. >> this is bloomberg surveillance. tom: we need to do some data jonathan: thank you, sir. jonathan: august is coming to a check off of michael, futures up 10, dow futures up .5%, 100 64 the stock is higher this morning close, it's almost september. from new york city this morning, by about 5%. points. not cyclists, the vix under 14 good morning, good morning for our audience worldwide, this is bloomberg surveillance on tv and is a huge deal. the ecb is stuck between a rock radio. and a hard place, inflation is a 13.79. i should also point out, oil your equity market is slightly problem, from new york, good with a climb, a six dollar morning. ♪ positive on the s&p 500 in a climb. four-day winning streak we are pushing near $87. attempting to make it five and kailey: 82 on wti. the fate of today's session may be in the hands of jobless claims later and a bunch of chris verrone told us earlier things after a week full of jobs this week he could see 90 on data, heading in the right brent, upward pressures on price direction for the doves. of energy. tom: i look at spending as well how that transmits. tom: it is in place as well. about some dollar strength. but to codify the bull market, mike mckee digging into the data, we will get to that in the 13.91 on the vix. coming hours. august is terrible.

the reports, 500, we are up .2%. jonathan: we are down 4.6% -- we say good morning to andrew of citigroup. i want to talk about the 1.6 percent on the s&p 500. cardinal believe, a lot of tom: tech stocks are always people are member this yield there but other stocks are there structure pre-post seven and it because of the wall of money is new to people, 15 or 16 that has defined a place to go. jonathan: we have adp with the years. respond to a client saying to you we are all going to die downside surprise, much lower because of high-yield. than anticipated. yet we have lived with high-yield before. jobless claims a little later andrew: if you look at the than it's on to payroll tomorrow. period, 2005 to 2007, it was a kailey: is that going to show more slack like the data is strong economy. indicated this week. it was producing 4%, 5% gdp consumer confidence as well with the idea that maybe because of what you're seeing in the labor market, people are not as confident about the economy. growth, around 2% inflation. maybe the deterioration in the that was an economy that to finally lose 80 pounds and keep it off with golo performed that way with 10 year yields around the level where leg effective starting to show they are no. is amazing. up. tom: it's amazing how she does you have to take a long enough i've been maintaining. historical lens when you look at this. the weight is gone that. and it's never coming back. if you just compare to the post jonathan: the estimate was $10.

with golo, i've not only kept off the weight 2008 period, 10 year yields look but i'm happier, i'm healthier, higher and 10 year real yields kailey: they are talking about a look quite high. and i have a new lease on life. we're looking at close to 2% 10 golo is the only thing that will let you lose weight profit hit that they attribute year yield. but if you look back to that and keep it off. to lower inventory markups and who loses 138 pounds in nine months? i did! increased shrink. period, in some ways a more tom: we don't say shrink. normal one, we had a lot of golo's a lifestyle change and you make the change strange things that happened after the financial crisis in the economy, it appeared when and it stays off. (soft music) jonathan: it's theft and we've the economy was digging its way heard it time and time again. out from that deep hole it got into. it is not to say that 10 year politically, how does this play yields will stay at this level out next year into the general forever. election? tom: i would suggest it plays but that kind of shows you you can be there. out across everyone's minds 24/7. tom: what is the fed doing in september? theft in retail, 2-4%. andrew: i think they paused but keep the. showing one more hike. you are talk about companies tom: he is a victim of the parlor game. that have net income margins of andrew, thank you, he has been four cents on the dollar. with a select group of others, it just kills you. bill dudley and others on the this is not too-4%. nation needing a higher interest rate structure. coming up, anticipated, the --

dan ives joins us. ♪ jonathan: maxverstappen from formula one racing, the interview just around the corner. tom: global numbers are spectacular and we will go to this in 45 minutes. he is the michael jackson of the sport now. he's bigger than arrant judge and bigger than tom brady. he completely dominates a global revenue machine. there is no other way to put it. jonathan: dominance is the wrong word, absolutely dominant with nine consecutive wins. tom: i said chico earlier but there is a correction. jonathan: let's turn to the price action on the s&p 500 just about positive after four days of gains.

euro weakness with inflation coming in hotter than the ecb wants it to be. kailey: you had headline inflation beating expectations and core coming in line at 6.4%. jonathan: a four-day winning we are well above target so what streak on the s&p 500 and is the central bank of you're attempting to make it deified going to do? with equities slightly positive. maybe we will get clues as to how they are thinking at 7:30 so far so good if you look at a a.m. eastern when we get the ecb softening of labor market data. july meeting account. it's backward looking but what jobless claims are little bit could it tell us about september later and yesterday a downside 14? surprise on the adp were going at 8:30 a.m. eastern time, we have a lot of data with jobless into friday. tom: the rate rise has claims 235,000 is what we are completely gone away. expecting from last week but this comes after you seen data point looking at softness in the i love to talk to andrew labor market. hollenhurst after he reframes the pce deflator, the fed's preferred inflation gauge and after the bell, not just dollar

with the data? general, broadcom will report jonathan: guess who's coming up later? and how much are they benefiting from ai? jonathan: dollar general is let's turn o the bond market. somebody would ask her something and she would just walk right past them. she didn't know they were talking to her. i just could not hear. i was hesitant to get on the two year, look at the absolutely hammered. the hearing aids because of my short hair. but nobody even sees them. our nearly invisible hearing aids are just one reason we've been the brand leader for over 75 years. when i finally could hear for the first time, i started crying. range we have had. i want to talk about i could hear everything. call 1-800-miracle and schedule your free hearing evaluation today. tom: bloomberg surveillance, dan international equities. ives just walked through the room. 5.1% the high and the low was let's talk about the retailers we have a correction and we will get to that in a moment. domestically as well. 4.83%. we've had warning after warning we advanced toward the 60 day in to your point, the stress from retailers. a row. should i believe them that futures at bay, you see that brought about from high yields things are getting worse for the withthe vix. and the worries around the story in the bond market dating over consumer? 31 in october. the last week area tom: you have >> things are backward looking. good morning, a giant of technical analysis, good morning an inertial force in the 10 year dr., giant of yale and years real yield. q3 is coming up and we are not passed. call it 2.02 down to 1.84 and we are going to go higher from exposed to the retail sector. october, they said. that's it huge move there on the that's not a position we hold in the vix was 31 entered is now our portfolio so i don't have 13. -- was 31 and is now 13. inflation-adjusted yield. any real insight. jonathan: the nominal yield is let's remember that consumer the max verstappen of 4.1 percent on the 10 year right incomes are growing. now. i think it's a little bit of a we are down 26 basis points from technology, mr. ives. kailey: salesforce up 6.5 that high. market share battle than it is a down a single basis point this signal u.s. consumer is morning and in the fx market, weakening. that would be my take. percent, trading at the moment, revenue profit forecast topped when i look at things like

the euro is stuck between a rock and a hard place with weakness estimates. some progress to cut costs and on the euro after strength transports or things like cooling concerns around a sale industrials, our focus is on a slowdown. yesterday. that is getting a nice reward. tom: for our american audience, ship -- a shift from inflation dollar general getting hammered and fed concerns to in premarket trading, down 17% manufacturing and recovery of after cutting its outlook again. this is important to see how global capex and the focus on they say earnings will tumble as much is 34% on a per share basis europe struggles with this fiscal particularly as it during the current fiscal year. relative to what we are applies to public-private struggling with in washington. brutal for that low cost -- jonathan: some hope for china's partnerships and things like the new industrial policy in the u.s.. that's really action is. kailey: it seems we've gotten taylor swift coming to the struggling economy and movies, the eras tour in north manufacturing pmi rising to beat confirmation in the last several estimates and moving closer to days that bad news is taken as america coming to amc. the 50 level. good news by the market. if you are suggesting there is we'll play it thursdays, nonmanufacturing is easing consumer resilience, will that suggesting the economy continues ultimately become bad news if fridays, saturdays and sundays. to be weighed down. tom: off of bardi and things hang in there too much? >> that's a fair point. the chinese authorities have oppenheimer, oppenheimer doing every day with something new. kailey: the latest is the tax that is true in regards to the 700 million, yesterday he said fixed income market but not he is not sure if you get to one break on childcare and child necessarily the equity market. billion. education spending. equity market is focused on it's to a be on a theoretical it literally says this is earnings. conducive to improving we had a big jump in multiples physics guy from 1949, that will go. of valuations will not provide but taylor is issue and. willingness and ability to support at least in the u.s. kailey: for sure, taylor, consume and they are trying to

stoke the fire and it's a question of whether each earnings will have to drive piecemeal step will be enough to barbie, beyonce. do so. things for the stock market in the u.s. a cultural moment. jonathan: let's see what we get tom: and dan ives walks through the door. tomorrow. from the euro this morning, the q2 had a beat rate of 80% which we're going to do some the different, focus on apple. ecb possibly hiking for a 10th is significantly above normal. consecutive time next month with better for the market as a whole all the gossip, advantaged by consumer prices rising from a and earnings revisions continue year earlier. the wonderful work of mark to take up and we are up -- at gurman. higher than economist estimates. when you look at the data, you 6.1, 6.7. might say the door is open for a consensus for 12% earnings a dynamic island for all models. hike on september 14. growth year-over-year next year periscope zoom lens for pro and that's what the market is models. posing on dishes focusing on. based on the communication we have had from ecb officials, i see no commitment right now that they are counting on the market qualcomm modem ship. not going into recession and they will move again in a couple of weeks. tom: this graphic is really good earnings will grow and therefore not just another phone. dan: it is not. they will be comfortable putting it is going to be a super cycle money to work. from 2.1 percent, 5.3%. kailey: let's talk about the playing out for apple. chinese economy. it is one of the things you have each country is so different but today we get another step that seen, investors have the common feature is massively china seems to be taking to underestimated this upgrade cycle. negative real yields. shore things up and today it's we believe 240 million of 1.2 raising tax breaks on childcare it's a starkly different than what we have in america. to boost consumption. billion have not upgraded their phones in four plus years. we seen action looking at tom: what is your terminal it's an overall economy that's

mortgage rates and deposit rate not in the textbook. and restricting ipos. timeline when you analyze is jonathan: i want to finish with does that add up to enough? financially, enjoying the 30 multiple on apple, i've got low >> that's right on the money. single-digit revenue growth. this -- residents of florida the world is coming to an end. assessing the damage in the wake of hurricane idalia abbott -- as the service is doing better in the way i think about china is one word and that word is all of that. how far do you have to go to it weakens to a tropical storm and passes through the carolinas. traction. when are these little dribs and justify the marginal share purchase? reports of flooding could lead to repair bill of up to 20 drabs of policy actually going dan: two to three years in my billion u.s. dollars. to do their thing and get that's quite a number. opinion. tom: on the insurance part of traction and move the economy because you are actually seeing forward? a renaissance of growth on iphone, especially when you've jonathan may not remember this it, at some point it ends and got currency. but the last time i was on the we're still building on the you look at services in terms of what is happening. coast in this cuts up against show with him, i was talking double-digit growth. about positive and the lights wildlife territory. some of the parts, we're looking at 3.5 to $4 trillion market cap went out. in the next 12 to 18 months. that's what happens when you it speaks to our view where for talk positively about china. they turn off the lights on you. apple, they continue to play chess and others play checkers. i am and i have been and remain kailey: what about china? invested in china. what weight introducing a i remain constructive on chinese equities. smartphone, chinese state media talking it up as being a the thing i love is the competition between the u.s. and economists. china in terms of tech. how realistic threat for the

it's a contra indicator. they doubled down over the last chinese consumer, which apple two weeks with back to back relies on? dan: if you look at china, they negative coverage. have gained 300 bits of market here is a couple of positive points -- share in china. pboc is injecting liquidity. that is the irony, right now despite the worries about china, that has been the core heart and stocks trade cheaper to the u.s. than they have in 20 years. lung of the success story. there is no confirmation in this it comes to the actual upgrade cycle we see with the iphone, negativity that everyone seems they think china is going to be to love to talk about. a tailwind. it is apple's world and everyone you look at the tech companies in china, alibaba had its best else is paying rent. i believe they will regain more first quarter since it went public. the consumer in china is not share in smartphones. hiding under a rock. samsung continues to be an they have plenty of room to uphill battle. consume. kailey: what about everything else? it's a confidence issue but car sales are up. a lot of products in the apple ecosystem. i remain mark gurman to your point, always breaking news on apple. their testing 3d printers to the china position we put on almost a month ago is down 3% make a stainless steel watch. from when we put it on. given all the negativity, that's pretty good. dan: the big thing here is going tom: it is that time of year

to be what i believe is the grand slam, the ai, app store, where many talk and few do. introduced in 2025. number 66 for the fighting blue devils, you played major tom: ai, they don't have a plan. football. in 1978, what was it like when baloney. what is the ai application of you walked into michigan 105,000 fans? nvidia's wonderment? what was that like as a kid? >> i shouldn't have mentioned dan: it all starts with developers building more and that i played for duke. more apps that i believe are you work that up in five minutes. going to be apple specific. that's awesome, you guys have i think it starts with what we see right now. serious fact checkers. tom: it's a deep team. it is going to be more >> we played michigan and we monetization on services. tom: you think it will go to the were not deep enough to play them. we got annihilated in that game. service sector? i was a sophomore and i was a dan: ai could add 30 to 40 shares per stock. defensive back in with destiny played a lot. anyone that thinks that cook does not have an ai strategy, -- my brother went out to see us. it was pretty miserable but i'm happy to report that duke football is in a much better place today than it was then. tom: i got capex, basically flat pre-pandemic. we have a top rated coach, great 10 billion large, pre-pandemic.

team and a lot of guys back. the 11 or 12 billion more, out we will surprise the world and there you go. 2024. how are they generating the we will surprise the world by growth in us without a build in? beating clemson monday night, dan: because you have the golden espn, national tv. i will be there and we can talk about it after. install base of cupertino that tom: you bounced back the next continues to be underestimated by the street. the idea that it is going to ramp up over the next two or week and crushed uva 20-13. three years, we have used the you came off the michigan crater apps as well as the apple card. and pounded virginia is only tom: i want to talk about the duke can do. >> i'm so impressed by all of hope and prayer, forget about $1000. to a monthly plan through a this. jonathan: his results are in phone provider. front of him on a screen. last time, t-mobile and the rest thank you for being with us. of them stepped up. just one of the best. have a free iphone. are they going to do it again? dan: even more this time. a true story, the lights did go tom: discuss it. out when he talked about china. dan: the carriers will be how cool is that? jaw-dropping. can you imagine walking out to there recognition. that as a kid? they know there is a massive tom: he was a guard as well. opportunity to put an iron fence around it. tom: you think t-mobile is going

it's like a job. to reaffirm agenda with the new iphone. he's not running around like a quarterback. dan: it is not just t-mobile. jonathan: he's a big dude. look at verizon, at&t and the carrier discounts we see, it welcome to the program, the s&p 500 is positive by 0.1%. speaks to why -- even i believe in the bond market, yields are it is it 150 to $200 price lower. increase, this is something way off the highs from a few where it is going to be a massive cycle for apple. tuesdays ago. we've had a big move lower in yields over the past week on the you have seen what i view as not back of what the fed might describe as encouraging data. just flat to an uptick year-over-year for iphone 14, tom: i will notice oil creeping despite many bears saying the world is coming to an end. up. kailey: there are a lot of not a grind but brent crude is stocks in your coverage, is apple your favorite? $86 50 cents. dan: it continues to be a table it's marching toward $90 per pounder. barrel. microsoft is a cloud table jonathan: just waiting from the pounder. stimulus from china. tesla's are ev play. maybe europe is waiting for that as well. the new tech bull market is here i would have said that's a problem for the eurozone. and i think this is just the start of the next 18, 24 month tom: we are scheduled for london bull cycle. kailey: and you think that in september and one of my top lasts.

is that not relevant to the interviews is the people at jp names? morgan. dan: it comes down to the fed cuts at one point next year and their arched thesis is demand the growth. doesn't go away. it is a 1995 cycle in terms of demand stays where it is from ai. the bears will come out of hibernation mode and they have countries who are not having called 10 of the last two downturns. esoteric debates like america. tom: i look before labeler -- jonathan: about an hour from now, cameron dawson and we labor day and i'm thrilled you talked to her about the equity came and understated. we're trying to do a serious market and round out things for the month of august and then we will head to politics, and financial show, you got the famous shoes and you got so many upsetting moment again for mitch mcconnell. endorsements going on i can't keep up. we will catch up with anne-marie. dan: because i'm in the presence of tom keene, i had to dress a tom: we don't need to go into little understated. but i nostra down. american political news but it's important. jonathan: it's upsetting images. tom: you walk in looking like a this is the second time in a frosted limo -- lemon at month. from new york city this morning, good morning, 30 minutes away cupertino, how do they respond? from max verstappen just around dan: they're like, could this be an ai strategy? the corner. ♪ tom: ipad, pewter, phone at the

cupertino rollout. i think the surprises going to be the chip rollout. but the biggest surprise is going to be ai functionality. tom: they are going to outline the ai strategy. dan: we will discuss that strategy. kailey: for the radio audience can't see him, yellow pants, light green jacket, a tie-dyed situation shirt. tom: more paris. st. tropez. kaylee: the last taste. >> somewhere between st. tropez and the swift concert. tom: with wedbush, taking seriously, and pinyon on the screen because he has been so right, he takes it with grace as well. we need to say thank you kaylee,

-- kailey leinz, esa, i'm a abandoned for tomorrow. there will be jobs report tomorrow. michael mckee and ms. greifeld will be with us, and most interesting day. futures up nine. stay with us through the day. television and radio, before max at monza. ♪ the first time you made a sale online with godaddy was also the first time you heard of a town named dinosaur, colorado. we just got an order from dinosaur, colorado. start an easy to build, powerful website for free with a partner that always puts you first. start for free at godaddy.com

>> since the beginning of this hiking cycle, we've tried to say a soft landing is the most likely outcome. the economy is not going it's a recession as a base case forecast and so far, that view has come true. things are cooling off a bit but they are not cold. we still think it is a recession avoided and that's been our view for a long time. jonathan: the chief global economist at morgan stanley, potentially recession avoided. jobless claims a little bit later and onto payrolls tomorrow. just a little bit of the lift on the s&p 500 following a four-day winning streak with yields coming up. i think we have to start this segment with difficult pictures

again for senate republican leader mitch mcconnell. for the second time in a number of months, he froze following a question on his thoughts and seeking reelection. tom: anybody that knows the gentleman from kentucky knows there is a vibrancy lost. i don't think that's ungraceful to say. this is a changed mitch mcconnell and it harkens back to all sorts of memories. the senator from california had some of the same troubles but i would take it back to reagan and bush senior and the history here. you can go immediately back to woodrow wilson of how we adapt to quite elderly u.s. officials. jonathan: there are many aspects of those pictures we saw in the last 24 hours. our thoughts are with the man himself and we hope he is well. i think the ages what's concerning for many people

beyond his health. what it conveys is it is ok to be supported and you expect them to be supported by the aids but not led by the. when you put these pictures together with the dianne feinstein pictures, she didn't appear to realize where she was or what she was doing and need to be led by an aide to vote, these individuals are elected to lead. we don't elect the aids around them to leave them on our behalf. that's not what democracy is all jonathan: the winning streak on about. the s&p 500 looking to we've increasingly seen those pictures and that -- and that's white's deeply problematic. make a day five. tom: through all of our history, the countdown to the open starts there's always been one fossil now. in the congress and the senate announcer: everything you need to get set for the start of and the house and there are two or three or four. u.s. trading. this is "bloomberg: the open" now it's the number of people we are talking about eluding the with jonathan ferro. analysis of the present ♪ president and the past

president. it's a whole set of people now. why are they sticking around? jonathan: live from new york, jonathan: term limits and age limits are talked about. coming up a fed official calling for patients. dcb stuck between a rock and a i'm uncomfortable saying you hard place. don't have the mental acuity to hoping the worst might ber lead at a certain age. one man is different than another. it's going to be difficult to deal with this as a country but seemingly, something we've all got to face and deal with given what's happening in america at the moment. tom: in the last 24 hours, they speak to the senator's challenges but they also have seven or eight paragraphs of the plot on capitol hill. we address this issue with anne-mariehordern. your thoughts yesterday as we observe this difficult video? annmarie: it's very challenging and uncomfortable to watch and you feel for mitch mcconnell in this moment.

he was asked whether he will seek reelection and for 30 seconds, even longer than he paused in the incident we saw last month on capitol hill, yesterday was in kentucky, he could not answer. an aide had to step in so we wish senator mcconnell well. his team came out and said he got lightheaded and took a pause but would see a doctor before his next event. there is obviously growing concern given that this happens so frequently from the last incident. when you have concerns like that, there will be some murmuring around capitol hill about who will take his position. rick scott, the senator from florida, who challenged mitch mcconnell for this leadership contest last year was asked about this on cbs and he says he thinks mitch mcconnell believe them through the remainder of this session and then potentially there will be someone -- they will have to

wait until the next leadership conference. tom: mitch mcconnell's wife has been hugely supportive of what i've done at bloomberg with all of her service to the republican party and the nation. people like you in the beltway, do you try to observe what the families are doing in advising in these difficult times? annmarie: it was about a year ago i sat down with elaine chao, an incredible woman in terms of her rise to the top of boards and the number of administrations, not just the prior administration that she has worked throughout republican administrations and sometimes people don't know she's married to leader mitch mcconnell. in this moment, you will not hear a lot from the family. the staff will deal with this and they are not really going to say a lot. you're going to see the press release we got yesterday which is that this was just a blip and we will make sure everything is ok but they say he's been fine

out and about at events and speaking engagements. that's the most you will see but you will not see a lot of individuals want to talk about this that are close to him. they will make sure they are doing this from a staff press release and that's about it. many people come to his defense. kailey: this isn't just about mitch mcconnell, it's about the age of a number of powerful individuals in washington. senator dianne feinstein was absent from the senate after dealing with shingles and has had difficulty since she returned with the man sitting in the oval office who is in his 80's. we know that voters are starting to have more of a problem with age. annmarie: they are. the recent eight people this week highlights this conversation which is that the majority of americans, even the majority of democrats says biden is too old. the democrats say they will vote

for him regardless but they do think he's too old to have another four years. in that hole, the majority of americans, 65% or more think there needs to be retirement age for supreme court justices and thinks there need to be term limits on those seeking elected office whether it's the house or the senate as well as presidential. this is something that will continuously come up. nikki haley, the gop hopeful for the presidency, she has said there should be a mental acuity test of those over the age of 65. when they start talking about legislation, this is an old congress. do they want to vote on legislation that could see those already there not be able to have the career they potentially want to? tom: these are true difficulties that bring the nation together. there are people that believe

donald or not. were you surprised at the bombshell reevaluation of real estate we heard from the court yesterday i guess on the net worth of the former president? annmarie: i'm not sure if i'm surprised by all of this we see but the former president, given the slew of legal battles he's facing and this one being the latest. i was intrigued about the deposition and the transcript we have. he talked more about his time in office. he said he didn't know what was going on with the company business and did not have a chance to look at it during his time in office. he wasn't running the company because he says there were nuclear discussions with north korea saving america from nuclear war. it's interesting stuff if you look at the back-and-forth of the transcript and it almost seemed as if the president was personally insulted that the new york attorney general said he

inflate his his assets. he said those assets are the best in the world. jonathan: $2.2 billion. annmarie: that's a lot of money. tom: tim o'brien was reviewing the finances of the trump. i look forward to seeing what he writes on this. he is borderline encyclopedic on every topic and i'm looking forward to what he has to say. jonathan: deborah cunningham is coming up later from federated earnings on this equity market. a four-day winning streak on the s&p and it could become five. live from new york city, this is bloomberg.

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jonathan: equities up on the s&p invite 0.1%. no drama into jobless claims. just one hour away. claims on friday, totally unchanged for the nasdaq. for a month of losses, we're

down to 1.6%. tom: we are always scarred by august of 1998, just a few years ago, seems like yesterday. but there is angst about august, and about september as well. last year, selling in october, going way. these challenger desk calendar cliches get you into trouble. jonathan: let's get to the bond market. sizing up the yield curve. the two-year at 4650. we've had a massive move lower off the back of job openings, much lower. adp, downside surprise, encouraging the move even further. the two-year has had a big range and the 10 year as well.

the 10 year, i break of 4.1 percent, down another 2%. tom cole would take away inflation and you can have some form of constructive positive real yield. that is a stark difference into september. jonathan: a lot to talk about for the euro. the data in focus, the euro-dollar 1.0866. -5% going into the ecb meeting september 14. pressure, not letting up for the ecb rate decision. eurozone inflation coming in above the estimate year-over-year. in china, manufacturing picking up slightly with the latest coming just under the key 50 level and in many ways, those stories are linked. what happens in china will shake things in europe. tom: and the information from the managing director of the imf, looking at the five-year

vision of global growth. we are just eight months into the historic call but the answer is we are certainly seeing tepid global growth that the imf was budget toward. jonathan: what would the ecb do? noncommittal, president lagarde going into the next meeting noncommittal. the account of the last meeting, any count for that? kailey: -- member supporting between five basis point increase. can any of us really tell by what they are saying? jonathan: the fact that she did not offer anything, nothing in jackson hole, tells you i don't think they know where they are going to go in a few weeks time. the hawks may hold the key to what they're going to do. they sound noncommittal. they're talking about may be more in the future, but not saying in september i'm going to

march in and demand a toy five basis point hike. tom: there's complicity because of the war in ukraine, but jackson hole, one of the complexities. another is the united kingdom. the united kingdom is part of the debate. jonathan: we have fed speak to talk about away from the ecb talk. a file bostick continues to side with the doves. maybe a little more careful about what happens next. based on current dynamics in the macroeconomy, policy is appropriately restrictive. i think we should be cautious and patient and let restrictive policy continue to influence the economy, lest we risk inflicting unnecessary pain. dollar general shares tumbling. the stock down by 16%. absolutely hammered. kailey: and they are talking

about how the decrease in gross profit was attributable to lower inventory markups. and inventory damages. but you asked earlier, what is it retailers are signaling about the health of the consumer? jonathan: they're not alone. even walmart and target, a warning potentially for retail in america. tom: a sudden roll for dollar general, 12 point 3% for the total return, pretty good for making one dollar purchases. this is a well-timed conversation we've got right now. in 15 minutes, max, and then our guests. she owns a short-term paper. a lot of people have asked about the new etf coming next year,

but on the cash fund, i got a 5.3% three month t-bill and i'm leveraging that three times, popping 16.2 per--16.29% gross return and that i take up my 2% fee and might when he percent overage. that is an esoteric thing. the simple thing is people are addicted to the 5.43% in your world. how long is the three-month yield going to last? >> we think it is lasting longer than the market expects. even though you see fed speak like bostick and even chair powell a jackson hole last week trying to temper expectations from a standpoint of further increases. maybe this is a skip and not a pause, maybe we go again in november. but i think the 5.43 and where

we are generally in short-term rates stays with us through the end of this year. it stays into the beginning of next year. right now i think the fed speak should be focusing on trying to take people's expectations away from the next cuts. they are not coming soon. but above five is there for a while. tom: you are on the high ground. what is the financial effect of trillions going to money market funds? what is the so what if everybody piles in 5.43%? deborah: were talking earlier about student loan presumption. what you can get from the standpoint of 5.3% on your cash helps with the payments that are now due, the amounts in student debt and other payments that have escalated from a mortgage,

and auto loan standpoint. those have all gone up. but if you are at 5% rather than zero, we were at 0.5 for very long time. you are better off from a net worth standpoint and being able to pay the extra required for liabilities. jonathan: we were just going through the accounts of the last ecb meeting. concern was raised about the economy facing stagflation. is that your base case for the eurozone economy? kailey: it is not-- deborah: it isn't. looking at asia, the u.s., we picked the euro zone as the highest. we still feel there is enough positive moment in many countries to keep rates above where the inflationary rate is. you got some counters to that from an energy standpoint, still supply-side issues, supply chain issues in the european economy.

but it is not our base case for that area. jonathan: let's say we do get that. i mentioned this yesterday and i would love your input. how to bonds traded in a stagflationary world? what would that look like? deborah: you are looking at something that is basically probably on par if not less then what is happening from a stagflation or inflationary rate. as such, you are probably losing in the process of investing, or at least in the cash portion. i think people still take the high ground. may take the less risky, maybe you are not getting enough of a return in those asset classes to beat what is happening from the stagflationary environment, but at least you are not losing much in the process either.

kailey: to pull a quote from the minutes, after the concern was raised about stagflation, they say in view of the uncertainties in the large costs of bringing inflation down once it had become entrenched, it was argued that it was referable to tighten monetary policy further than to not tighten it enough. there is no telling that the preference would still be for over tightening rather than under tightening in september for the ecb or the federal reserve. but when we going to know if they did over tightening? deborah: there are leadtimes on everything. no central bank to include the ecb or the fed wants a jagged line, up, down, they are not that responsive. they like to go in a trend toward one level, stay there for a while and then maybe reverse course. but not reversing course multiple times in a year, unless there's something that warrants

it that is in an extraordinary picture. but i think you've got probably with most countries and their tightening cycles, you've got at least a six month lead time. we are not going to know whether they tighten too much now until 2024. jonathan: can we do a best guess for next month, the ecb and the federal reserve, do you expect action from one another other? deborah: i think they are both in the skip mode at that meeting. jonathan: deborah, one of the best. tom: one of the best. she does not get any love. short-term pay, first 13 months -- three months, whatever. finally they are back in conversation and they still don't get love versus should i buy the austrian t-bill?

when you lose as much money as i lost in the austrian, quite sexy. jonathan: the nvidia of the world. tom: the huaweis. jonathan: i think we are missed announcing it. those ecb mannings, fascinating. how does that shape your thought into the reading next month? kailey: given that these are backward looking, i don't know. but what they're talking about has only perhaps become even more evident. still an elevated inflation outlook, more evidence in the data this morning, 5.3% on the headline year-over-year for --figures. you're still seeing growth deterioration showing up. do they have more clarity than they had in the story july? tom: the minutes are sanitized.

jonathan: far more sanitized than the fed minutes. it gives me the impression this is a gametime decision. truly alive meeting. tom: they made it very clear it is a jumbled system. jonathan: equities are elevated by 0.2 percent, potentially moving toward a day of gains. i to use with andrew, the best guest in the next hour. citigroup at 830--8:30, or next, max. in at red bull racing. tom: it is like the horse and horse racing. everybody says it is the car. if it starts in the 14th position and gets up to seven, it is the car. or if max is in second or third

as he always does, it is the car. that is what i want to explore. jonathan: the dominance of max, if you put him next to anybody in that car, he is winning. the best way of winning this is judge him against his teammate. there is a massive gap for most of the season. tom: this kid is 25. he won his first race. tom: he did a year at formula one. tom: he is interested in the cash fund. jonathan: i don't like asking athletes about that. against the rules on this program. tom: we don't do it. jonathan: max from red bull racing is coming up next. ♪

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jonathan: let's get you up to speed on the price action, equities positive by 0.3% on the s&p. up four day winning streak on the s&p, the longest back to mid july. we are on course to make it five on the s&p 500. that winning streak trimming the month to date loss to one point 6%, the first monthly loss since february, which tells you a lot about the year so far. a year of double-digit gains on the s&p 500 and on the nasdaq. the nasdaq heading toward a second week of gains. in the bond market, treasury shaping up as follows. the 10 year yield at 0.4 9%, down a couple of basis points. last week, 4.36, yields have dropped all the way in to a low of about 4.08% yesterday.

the range on the two-year this week alone, wide. 5.1% at the high. the two-year this morning dropping into the four -- 480's, that is the bond market. let's finish on foreign exchange. the euro 108 65, negative by 0.5%. a weaker euro, inflation all week, italy, spain or germany, upside surprise for the eurozone inflation story. cpi coming in hot. there is a question about whether the ecb ask a move in a couple of weeks time on september 14. there was reluctance around that table. you wonder if that reluctance carries over into the meeting on the 14th. tom: as you said earlier, it is data dependent. labor day, which is like new year's for the business committee, get the kids back in school and out into september as

well, i'm going to point out that from--i am up 24% from the october low. the s&p is not performing. it is only apple. jonathan: it will be delayed 10 minutes. max is going to be late. we're still making this conversation happen. he has things to do this weekend. some racing. tom: he is busy. let's take a moment here. when you look at that car with all of the stickers on it, the uniforms, the, if he spends 15 minutes with each sponsor, that is why he is 10 minutes late. jonathan: he has to do the circuit. tom: or he is tricking the rebel. it's just red bold. he is covered in champagne 20 47.

somebody has dropped the trophy. jonathan: somebody -- that has been remade. hungry have remade that. tom: we had to find somebody to follow up with after max who is 10 minutes late, never late is michael mckee. you are standing to the side as i was warbling with christine lagarde. she is not jay powell. what is the number one difference she has in the day-to-day grind of central banking versus what the american central banker has? michael: she has 19 countries to worry about, where's the fed chairman has only one. monetary policy is a bit more difficult, in the sense that there are differences between the various economies. croatia growing 3%, germany growing 0% or less. the impact of raising rates is different on different countries.

they will have different views. she's got to make everybody get together and come up with a consensus on what to do. kailey: it was arguable that it was preferable to tighten monitor -- monetary policy further than to not tighten enough. this is a conversation we heard as well. loretta mester leaning toward over tightening. rafael bostick suggested the opposite. do we have an idea of the preference, which way they would lean? michael: the majority say they would rather over tightening that under tighten. they don't want to send the economy into a recession. what if we start to see a real deterioration in the economy, they can cut rates. i don't want to see inflation go back up again so they are going to lean in the direction of higher rates. we are within 25 basis points probably of any kind of peak. does it really matter that much? not a huge amount. it is more a signal than

anything else. kailey: does the data matter? jobless claims, spending. michael: pc will matter because that is what the fed follows for inflation. powell has been looking at those super core, housing. and rafael bostick was making the point that if you do that, you take out housing, you have your court running about 2.9%. you're getting into the area of what you want to say. tom: i want to go to the unspoken, the theme that the savings, the fiscal stimulus of the pandemic has worn out. is it right that you can calculate today the savings rate of americans? mike: you can calculate the savings rate. yes. we look at that as some measure of whether or not people are still -- still have enough money to get spending.

tom: the house are saving the 401(k)s and all of that. two thirds of the nation are not saving. mike: 401(k)s do not count because the money comes out of your paycheck. looking at the net money you have left over after taxes. they subtract what you spend and that is the residual but they call the savings rate. it is a little bit odd. but people are not going to be spending their 401(k)s anyway on regular goods. the best proxy we have on an easy to figure out basis, it has come down to about 4.1%. but we don't know if americans are spent out. they keep spending. jonathan: we keep hearing the same thing, this is the quarter. now we are told this is. do house prices matter when they are so distorted by this federal reserve? michael: change matters.

that is the issue for the fed. when housing prices go up, it adds to cpi, pce inflation on a percentage basis. but it takes about a year to get into the data. house prices are going up now because things are distorted. but they went down and what we should start seeing is declining housing prices and declining effort, weakening of inflation based on that. jonathan: further progress, potentially. this, i jackson hole. -- this came up at jackson hole. michael: you asked the question. tom-- jonathan: there is this feeling that we get down to two. fed chair says the target is two. you asked the people around the meeting, is the target really two? are they willing to cause that pain in the labor market to go from three to two? start to get pushback.

what is your take on what is happening in the committee? is there a tolerance for above 2% inflation? mike: there is a tolerance, but an unspoken one, it's going to take a long time to get that last mile from three to two. they're going to leave rates. they won't raise rates, but they will leave them as long as they can to see if they can bring it down to the 2% level, it into that area. there is a feeling that they can maybe do that. then wait till 2025 when they review the monetary policy operations and then say we will go to a 3% target. because if the economy stays growing at a faster pace, your neutral rate has risen and your target can rise. kailey: it is also credibility. the fed can't be seen saying we can't get there so we are changing our target. michael: it is the same as we

see in all of their speeches, they talk about pain and less than trend growth, but they never say recession. they're never going to say recession because we know everybody will immediately hit so the minute the word comes out of their mouth. jonathan: always great to watch mike mckee work the room. tom: you go to the million dollar cowboy bar, he is working the whole bar. he's working the room. mike: there's water in my hand. jonathan: thank you. in about five minutes, we will discuss the market wrapup heading to september in the key central bank meetings, and with cameron dawson. and max is working towards us, he is in monza for the race in italy.

tom cole it a lot to talk to him about. jonathan: have you seen the party in the bowen's? it rained. the race stopped, but the dj kept going and everyone seemed to have a great time. tom: it is max. for, monza, it looks ugly. jonathan: from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪

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>> the fed has achieved what they wanted to invest far. >> it is likely to let past increases in policy do their work. they are likely to let the lags have their impact. >> you're going to see inflation by the end of this year. >> there is no recession insight because everything in the economy is well-balanced. >> i think they're going to be downward revisions. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, not a sleepy august week. kailey leinz invert me several it's. we look at equities, currencies, commodities and what jonathan ferro calls the temple of speed.

week after week, they take the roadshow from the netherlands down to near milan. jonathan: the home ferrari race. average speed of 150, 160. these guys are going fast. one of the races on the calendar. unfortunately for for ari fans, things are not going so well into this weekend. tom cole it we can say good morning to all of you worldwide who love formula one. when is las vegas? jonathan: if we can find tickets we are going. we should ask our guest. tom: there's always a desire to talk to the gentleman who truly dominates and owns the high ground. as you bring in him, this kid was in the show, the big time before he had his drivers license. jonathan: amazing.

max verstappen of rebel racing -- red bull racing joins us now. you're trying to make it 10 wins in a row, how special without be? max: it is something i never even thought about that was possible. another we have nine in a row, tying the record, you want more. we have a good opportunity. but races are never straightforward. a lot of things can happen. but i'm excited of course for the weekend. jonathan: take me back to the days when you are in a go cart and you got tt to be around peoe like michael schumacher and your father. is that where this desire comes from to dominate, even after you get win after win? max: of course you want to from a young age. with the way i grew up, having

experienced my dad by my side, for sure, i think you get prepared in a different way. for me it is never good enough. you try to look for the little details that can go better. so far this year everything has been amazing. but i will never be satisfied at the end of the day. it's jonathan: were talking about marco retiring from football at 28. with you, they say things like he is going to get board and subway. do the records but he said, are they worth sticking around for? 's at some of the drives you? max: i never really targeted records. i've course enjoy what i'm doing now and for me at the moment it is the opposite. this is not boring, it is exting. i am always looking forward to the track. it is when you're not winning

anymore and there is no real plan in pl or a future where you see yourself winning again, probably you get bored. but retiring at 28 for me is a bit soon. tom: jonathan ferro is steeped in all that you do. he grew up in england and lives formula one. i am new to this, the one that you need at las vegas, miami, wherever. i go to the great journalist peter windsor on this, he says you do corners and turns like nobody. he talks of silverstone and the three turns of maggots and brackets. how do you approach the tight turns of formula one? peter windsor says that is the difference. max: everybody has their own driving style. but with our sport, you are able to adapt to whatever is needed. every year we have a new, different looking car.

and every car drives a bit differently. you always have to adapt and learn, try to grow and be different, try to really get the most out of the car. and if it is driven fastest way in a different way than what you're used to, have to adjust. tom: do you wish for a smaller, later car? max: that would be ideal but you have to be realistic with the safety standards that are always improving. it is not always possible to go lighter. but i'm sure we are looking into the future regulations as well to try and make it better. jonathan: your bosses are thinking about the commercial stuff, we talked to christian horner a month or so ago and we were talking about that race calendar and have any races are in places like the u.s. and vegas. for a man like yourself, can you compare monza to miami, las vegas and get excited?

the purists might complain about this being commercial, moving away from the traditional racing. max: the pupil thing is we've got a lot of different growth still it would be very boring if they were all the same. i'm very aware that we should not go to all of the commercial places, but vegas gives a unique opportunity and time will tell if it is the right way to go or not. but i like the pure racetracks. it really comes to life on the proper racetracks. so for sure, we need to keep these tracks on the calendar. jonathan: they are always trying to rework the format when a team goes through a period of dominance. i remember when it used to be 30 minutes, fastest driver and fastest car, they try to make it more interesting. do you think tweaking the format would -- with the sprint racing

in one weekend and not another, is that frustrating as a driver? max: i'm not really excited by these things. when something works well, why do you need to tweak it? there is a constant discussion and some things will go well and some don't. for me, trying to keep it like it is probably is the best thing forward. i thought the qualifying format before you get into this is exciting. tom: i am a complete hack that i agree the sprint is ridiculous. i don't understand it. i love the qualification thing, i love to tune in. are you in a place that is completely dominant in a sport involving all of the money and egos, where can you control of the -- the future of who your teammate is a? or stand there is -- i understand there is sport gossip. but are you in a position where

you can dictate, discuss or say who a future teammate will be? max: this is always up to the team. i am a team member for a long time and you talk about stuff, but i'm not the one who is telling them what to do or deciding things at the end of the day. i need to focus on my job and that his drive as quick as i can every weekend. jonathan: you do a good job of that, particularly this weekend. -- the season. how close are you with the other? max: we are very close. we are similar to how we approach our lives outside of formula one. he is a family person and has his kids as well. i think it is good to try and sometimes switch off and not think about formula one. that is where we can really relate. jonathan: people like to stir up gossip and tell stories. you have been reluctant to get involved with the netflix series

that has been massive. why do not like doing those things much? max: at one point, certain things are a bit more private. privacy for me is very important. i like things to be portrayed like they actually are and not with a lot of spice to it. but we had a good shout, i do have a year and expand my side of the story and i think that is important. i know how netflix is, to try and attract new fans. but it is important to also see the reality of the sport. tom: we are in london, we come back and it gives us enough time to las vegas in november. but if max can pull some strings, i think we can be at las vegas with red bull. jonathan: i think he would prefer us to ask christian horner. we will ask later. i wanted your side of the story,

i don't want to talk about the last race, i want to go back to austria. the final lap of the grand prix. you make the call to put on fresh tires and set the fastest for a signal point. from your perspective, is that something you have planned ahead of the race? is that something you think about in the moment and where does that confidence and conviction come from, to go against the team who would like to stay out? i can do it, i've got the control and the ability to perform -- where does that come from? max: i try to maximize every thing i can. i saw the opportunity for extra points so why not? there is always risk with these things. but no risk, no fun. that was also going through my head at the time. jonathan: good luck for race weekend, fantastic to catch up with you. max from red old racing, one of the best, absolutely dominant.

tom: what were you doing at 25? jonathan: not that. tom: i urge all of you, particularly in america, go to wikipedia. it is lengthy and see how this kid, his father was the real deal, his mother was involved in the sport, he straddled the never -- the netherlands and belgium in the divorce and he worked at it from day 1, 7 or eight years old. you walk right through. some of the adversity along the way. jonathan: may have been around a child -- each other for years, fantastic pictures of him with his father and with michael schumacher as well. one of if not the best driver to overdo it. tom: and his father is there in the pit. he is greeting his father as he greets his teammates. i love that third place, every race is something new. jonathan: some people get bored

of dominance. i don't. i admire it. i want to understand what is behind it. we saw it with mercedes, we start with schumacher and for ari. now a different level with red bull. more formula one still to come race season and hopefully we will you -- the s&p 500 posited by 0.2%. at 8:30 eastern, the city on their federal reserve. cameron dawson, the best guess of the hour. is it andrew or max? she was like i'm not talking to you. tom: were you at miami? cameron: no. jonathan: i don't like the new racing calendar. i don't.

tom: i don't like it because these courses are radically different. fenway park versus yankee stadium, they are radically different. at the up and down, we don't see the elevation thing. we don't have that. jonathan: at formula one, they want to make it a surface duster circus. our financial reasons. but if you are a purist and you want to see him go around classic tracks, that is the part of the race calendar i love. tom: like watkins glen in upstate new york. jonathan: just like it. tom: pulling a nominator. jonathan: equities--jobless claims in america 60 minutes away. data so far making progress in a way that mainly the fed would like to see. equities up, yields lower, down two basis points from new york, good morning.

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