tv Bloomberg Markets Bloomberg August 31, 2023 1:00pm-2:00pm EDT
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to get resources to them, to get services to them. the idea that we have saved five million people's lives, it's overwhelming. it's everything. >> welcome to "bloomberg markets." the s&p turns negative right now. it has been a weeping day but that is perhaps some relief. look at some positive consumer spending data which could be good or it could be less good. we will talk about that in a moment. looking at the s&p 500, not much movement. your positive on the nasdaq, we still have make caps outperforming. there is a bid in treasuries.
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the two year yield is that 4.86. the dollar index is also big. a little bit of a rate story. we will continue to wash that. august is not the greatest month over the last 30 years for the s&p 500. they stocks are on track for the first monthly drop since february of this year. we will monitor that as well. it has been a great week, four up sessions this week and all eyes are on the jobs report tomorrow morning. as we wrap up the month, we did catch up with joint feeney who give or take on the economy and inflation. >> we are getting with an economy that has a shortage of labor which is what is keeping services, provision cap to down which is still keeping goods supply down. that is the problem behind inflation. the longer this takes, the more
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patients the fed has and the markets have, the more likely it is supply catches up to demand. >> we did get the readings the fed were working on before the decide what to do at their next meeting. let's get to the state of the economy with three pickers. we did get benign inflation data. if you look under the surface, there might be a few things to take away. reed: it was a benign inflation. we saw back to back -- in the core inflation metrics since the end of 2020. it shows how much progress we have made over the last year. it is certainly not victory declared. there are a couple of things to keep in mind. none of the things was this robust surge in consumer spending. when you see spending ranging from -- to spending at
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restaurants and extra spending, extra spending on ec, when you see stuff like that, it suggests that the economy is still quite hot. we saw economists react to that. jp morgan revised their third quarter estimate from two point 5% to 3.5%. that is a fresh headwind for a fed hoping for an economy that is slowing down and not speeding up. >> rafael bostic said -- is not up right now. what will the fed be hoping tomorrow brings in order for them to feel comfortable about holding steady in september? reade: jay powell has made it clear they want to continue to see this bouncing in the market. the way you do that is slow
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moderation in demand for workers. continued increase in the number of people in the workforce. continuing to see improvement on the workforce participation side. at least economists think they know tomorrow you will continue to see this moderation in job growth. still a very solid number, around 170,000 jobs. an unemployment rate still near historic lows. if you continue to see this trend of moderation without an increase in unemployment, that is something the fed is hoping to see and is the kind of thing strength hopes that the u.s. white river a recession after all. >> thank you so much. we will be watching that data tomorrow morning. . crypto has grabbed headlines, overturning the sec decision to block grayscale's position to
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convert -- potential the opening the door for etf's from various funds. here is how grayscale reacted to the news. >> a huge win for grayscale and our investors and the crypto community. >> the news from the lawsuit is positive. we still don't know precisely what it means, but the main reason the sec has been using for the last decade to reject these applications has been struck down. >> courts are stepping in to provide clarity for the sec. it shows again that the sec when it acts contrary to law without regard to rules is going to find itself held accountable in courts of law. vonnie: sui chung is the ceo of cf benchmarks. this is a court ruling, this doesn't have anything to do with
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the sec or what happens next. sui: thank you for having me on the show. you have to remember that the ruling means that grayscale will be allowed to the starting line. that is with this ruling allows for because previously the sec rejected out of hand grayscale's notion of applying for conversion of its existing it quite trust product into a public markettf. vonnie: we are back at the starting line and bitcoin investors brought bitcoin lower. that would indicate anything to you that there might be pessimism going forward? sui: i would not say pessimism. the initial headlines were grayscale achieves a victory on the court versus the sec. at once if people had ridley ruling and what is meant, what it meant is we are closer to
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having a spot physically backed bitcoin etf. that day has not happened yet. as people are digesting that, some of that enthusiasm, over exuberance, a bit of a reality check. there is to a number of hurdles, number of milestones that need to be crossed before physically backed spot etf will be back in the usa. vonnie: you are the ceo of cf benchmarks which provides the index that would be used in the black rock proposal, but there are 30 plus proposals out there. i just blackrock what would you be including others in that in the event they are given the go-ahead? sui: we are fortunate to be partners with blackrock but we are also partners with a number of other applicants including was wintry and valkyrie, to name a few.
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we are the leading an expert or for cryptocurrency. we are the leading provider for -- the cme dollar futures contract, both settled to h-mart indices provided by cf benchmarks. over five years of experience of working with cme and settling their derivatives contract and etf's listed in canada, brazil, and parts of europe. the usa is a bit of an outlier. vonnie: i am curious as to what you think will differentiate them. if there are 30 plus and they will be physically backed, what will be the difference between them? it feels like a commodities etf and there are not many of those either. sui: that is an interesting point. that is the $64,000 question,
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how will this market shakeout? what are the parameters of competition? will it look more like equities and fixed income where you have a number of providers providing etf's that seek to deliver similarish outcomes or will it look more like the space where you tend to have one or two etf's that represent a specific commodity, like uso's and gle's? that will be a fascinating thing to see when the applications are approved and we see the etf's. vonnie: what changes might need to happen in the applications in order for them to satisfy the sec? are you giving them any advice? sui: we are not advisors, but we have had quite a bit of experience in this space given the other issue is we work with in other parts of the world.
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each regulatory jurisdiction is unique. we have seen a number of applications in terms of the sec and the sec has been very transparent in why it denied close applications. all of that is a matter of public record. if you recall in this latest base of etf applications, what is different, what marks of the -- from the ones previously is the inclusion by the listing exchanges, the national stock exchanges that seek to list the uds for trading. they have information sharing agreements in place with major cryptocurrency exchanges which is something the sec has said on a number of occasions that it wants to see -- it is a bar that has to be met before it will
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list -- before it will allow the listing of any spot bitcoin etf's. vonnie: with the idea that there are roughly 30 applications up for approval, how many do we need? is this all for retail investors? do we need 30? how many should there be given the green light? vonnie: in terms -- sui: in terms of evening the agreement, if they meet the requirements, they will be given the green light. as to how many the markets need, that is the $64,000 question. it is difficult to know the shape and structure this market will take within the etf ecosystem. you have also got to remember that you're talking about different managers. they will appoint different custodians, they will have different fund administrators. because they have become so common and such a well used
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instrument, we do forget there are a number of service providers behind any given etf. because we are in new territory, it is a greenfield space in terms of crypto etf's. it may very well be that investors will pick and choose based on the full staff of providers, the manager, the custodian, etc. because of the novelty of this particular instrument. vonnie: and fees will play a part i am sure as well. that is the kyiv it's -- the cf benchmarks ceo, sui chung. next, nancy pelosi on the ukraine war and russia. that is next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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vonnie: this is "bloomberg markets." francine lacqua caught up with nancy close the head of a charity event. they discuss the political situation in china, russia, and ukraine. sen.pelosi: what is happening in ukraine is a challenge to democracy, not just there and nato countries, but to the world. what a tribute to democracy the ukraine people are. putin does not share any values of a democracy of justice, of respect for the lives of people, concern for children or
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anything. he is frightening but what is also frightening is a former president who thinks that is okay. it is so sad and so extreme. everything to be is not frightening but any opportunity. francine: when you look at china, for example, what the u.s. has been doing and how they should treat china. sen. pelosi: china is a big country and we have defined an accommodation on how we treat each other. china has been a violator of transferring technology of weapons of mass destruction in terms of economics. they have been violated -- they violated almost every trade standard of access to piracy,
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the rules and the rest. in terms of governance, hong kong, tibet, leaders, and the rest -- uighurs and the rest. we don't have shared values but we share a planet and we have to work with the chinese to save the planet because they are now the biggest emitter. if not us, they are second. they are part of the solution in all of this. vonnie: that was former u.s. house speaker nancy pelosi speaking with francine lacqua. the biden administration has asked congress for a short-term funding package to avoid a government shutdown on october 1. erik wasson reported on the news. the sheer loss in -- eric lawson reported on the news. does it get easier this time? eic: -- erik: d conservatives
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are even supporting a short-term funding bill. it does not cut billions from deposit. it will be up to kevin mccarthy if he goes along that line or teams up with democrats to keep the government open. vonnie: how has this changed? last time he did not have much to work with and yet he managed to pull it off, he managed to get more extreme republicans on his side. he can be ousted with one vote. erik: the vol -- of the vote could be called by a single member and it would take only four or five of them to oust him. it is tough math for him. the biden administration's requests makes it difficult. they are asking for millions of dollars in the war against ukraine. another $2 billion for refugees which is a hot button issue.
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they are asking all kinds of spending increases that are not going to be palatable. senate republicans are kind of siding with biden. we saw mitch mcconnell who had this frees up, prior to that saying he expects a short-term spending bill. the republicans and it is senate are not really lining up with house republicans. if we don't see a shutdown on october 1, there is one on the table for december. does mccarthy put a bipartisan deal on the table and have a vote? i think he may be reluctant to do so. vonnie: will republican priorities be in other directions such that this will become less of a priority given what is going on with special counsel's and the election cycle? erik: kevin mccarthy is talking more about the impeachment inquiry into joe biden. he mentioned a shutdown would complicate that investigation. he is definitely looking to give the conservative -- give the conservatives more interested
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and perhaps take heat off of the government funding effort. so far, conservatives are not really buying it. they are saying we can do both. that may be a tough act for him to pursue. vonnie: do the democrats have an economic argument in the sense that biden can take credit for an economy that is not doing so badly? we had consumer spending up again this month. and use that for his case for projects? erik: absolutely. if commerce fails a stopgap measure and we see a government shutdown and an ability to cover the maui wildfires and hurricane italia, it tends to be the case -- working idalia, congress would be blamed. there is a risk of a shutdown happens in tow but when we're looking at this soft landing of
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that hikes, it could tip that into more of a recessionary situation. if we did have a recession, the president could blame republicans. it is a big risk for republicans to engage in this. at the end of the day, if there is a shutdown, it would be short-lived. vonnie: thank you so much for your time today. still ahead, global investments in renewable energy hit a record high the first half of this year. solar stocks are stumbling and some hedge funds are betting against renewable stocks. we will have details next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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great stocks given that biden's inflation reduction act is supposed to help. global investment of green energy is hitting global records. let's bring in paul. ai is supposed to help with the companies. why are solar companies not doing so well? paul: solar companies compete globally, the u.s. represents less than 10%. while these subsidies are helping some of these companies, overall these companies have to compete globally. they're competing against a very fierce competition as a lot of the manufacturing expansions are going on in china and asia and bringing costs down and module prices are really plummeting. . . vonnie: is everybody just looking to china to meet their renewables goals? pol: china is the factory of the
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world and this is true for solar. for the u.s., they mostly rely on imports coming from southeast asia rather than china. a lot of those are owned by chinese companies. china is the biggest market for new solar and it is outpacing the u.s. but he remains the factory of the world and were a lot of the ip and technology is taking place. vonnie: the other thing is that solar and wind companies are extraordinarily capex sensitive. what impacts our hydrates having on plans to put money into research and development and manufacturing plants? pol: the ra has attracted a lot of investment into the u.s. lacrosse clean energy sectors and solar has not been an exception. those subsidies are bringing down the cost of making panels
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in the u.s.. the competition coming from southeast asia is fierce. these factories in the u.s., despite getting generous subsidies are going to struggle to compete against best in class facilities in southwest asia that are vertically integrated. vonnie: we have a great story that a number of hedge funds has started shorting window energy stocks. this was a thing a while back and seems to be a thing now. if this is -- is this what is needed? pol: i don't necessarily know if hedge fund shorting is what is needed in the market. what is needed in the market is for bottlenecks to let solar wind projects getting built quicker and allowing the market to grow even faster. what they are probably seeing is oversupply and competition being fierce globally. higher rates has been an issue on the global industry as well, even before the ra rising interest rates with increased the cost of her new energy product financing that is the
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>> i'm jon erlichman, welcome to "bloomberg markets." vonnie: i'm vonnie quinn. quick check on the markets. to some inflation data out of the u.s. today and some good employment and personal spending data. not too much movement in the indices themselves, whipping around for the s&p 500. up by 0.1%. the nasdaq are performing as we have come to expect in 2023.
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to your yield at 4.68%. it was at 5.10% just a few days ago. the euro having a bit difficult day. worse data out of europe then u.s. today. jon: let's stay on that team of tech outperformance today, a conscious overall trading session. first of all, you have salesforce, which soothed some concerns about its outlook with its latest financial guidance. the stock is up 3.5% today. we've also been watching shopify, one of the standout names. the e-commerce giant has struck a new deal with amazon to tap into its logistics network. the market responding with a 9% move higher on that stock. cybersecurity, even in an uncertain economy, gets attention with a name like crown strike. latest quarterly results with that company, investors liking what they heard. that stock is up 9%.
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we are watching what is happening in the pet economy as well. chewy had some numbers that might reflect an economy that is weakening, may people paying less for their pet treats. you see the broader industry, petco under pressure today. vonnie: if you are creeping on your pets, that is something we need to keep our eyes on. when it comes to the overall economic picture, we heard from citi's andrew hal -- >> right now they really have to concentrate on those upside risks to inflation. we still have various measures of core underlying inflation that are running too high. that means there could be a period of time where you see weaker growth data but the fed is still holding retire. jon: economist stuart paul from the bloomberg economics team had
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been writing extensively about this. great to have you with us, stewart. if you had to characterize the progress being made in the fight against inflation, how would you put it? >> there have been some very favorable base effects that have allowed headline inflation to continue fading. energy prices fading from where they were upon the invasion of ukraine, that's been a favorable effect. those base effects have been stripped out and are not going to be serving as any sort of tailwind in terms of providing the fed with any benefit to reach its 2% inflation target going forward. nt -- inflation start to dissipate quite a bit, and that is something the fed willd helpful in writing in inflation. vonnie: how closely do we need to look at these figures? you push it out to the third decimal point, the core number went up again.
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that is the one the fed seems to prefer. pce deflator. that is not a good thing. stuart: i think we can smooth out the third decimal place. when we think about the fed and its policymaking, they are primarily looking at the re-month moving averages. if we are looking at core pce inflation on a three-month moving average, about 2.8%. if we were to annualize the monthly prints we have seen recently. that is something the fed will appreciate. i think there is still room to continue leaning against inflation. it still does not want to see some kind of secondary surgeon inflation, as we saw in the 1970's. as andrew was saying, there is room to expect the fed to maintain its higher for longer posture. jon: going back to where the economy goes, maybe we will get more clues with the jobs data tomorrow, but i know you've been looking at some of the trends with spending as well. what are you seeing their?
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stuart: today's report was interesting because it defied a lot of the trends we've been seeing. today's personal income and outlays data was quite a head fake. 0.8% month on month growth in pce spending. a big part of that was driven by nearly 11% growth in movie ticket sales. it is a pretty wacky dynamic going on in the background where you have barbie, oppenheimer, taylor swift, beyonce driving so much spending. a lot of that comes from a sense of urgency to spend on these experiences that are not going to be there in q4. i think we returned to a trend that is more in line with what we see on the income side, which is calling for a slowdown in growth. vonnie: economist stuart paul, thanks joining us. we will be watching those jobs numbers closely.
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let's connect the economy to one particular stock, dollar general is plunging after slashing its profit forecast for the second straight quarter. brandon case covers retailers for us. is this a dollar general story or is this a consumer story in the sense of the consumer that doesn't have those discretionary funds anymore? brendan: there is definitely a macro in fact, no doubt lower income consumers are under pressure. that affects dollar general. but that affects retailers across the board. what we are seeing today is a company specific story. if you look at same-store sales for dollar general for the latest quarter they were essentially flat. compare that to gains of more than 6% at dollar tree, the other big dollar store chain, and walmart, which also has a lot of lower income customers. if you look at that gap, when
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you are seeing is an increasing signal that dollar general is underperforming its rivals after years and years of outpacing them. jon: let's lean into that. you wrote in your story about some of the changes at dollar tree which includes the former dollar general management playing a key role at the company now. brendan: that's exactly right. kkr took the company public again in 2009. they brought in a ceo who, for many years at dollar general, presided over big-time store growth, large gains in sales, very successful story. he retired but came out of retirement recently to join a turnaround effort at dollar tree, which is backed by an activist. dollar tree has problems of their own. they cut their profit forecast earlier this month because of
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cost pressures, but they are really getting traction on the sales side. bringing people into the stores, which is a sharp contrast to dollar general, where customer traffic actually fell last quarter. vonnie: does dollar general need to reduce its footprint quickly, renegotiate leases? does it suddenly become a target? brendan: they are looking to continue growing. they have more than 19,000 stores in the u.s., the biggest retailer in the u.s. by store count. they are sticking with their plan to add almost 1000 stores this year. there is however an increasing sense that maybe they have gotten a little head of themselves -- ahead of themselves. they are boosting staffing hours, taking steps to improve the conditions of the stores. i think the comparable sales numbers is a pretty clear indication that their stores, customer experience is not the best. they need to improve that.
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just like with some u.s. banks, a shaky office market is potentially eating into performance as well. let's get more perspective from mark narron, senior director at fitch ratings. great to have you with us. your reaction to a bank like this setting aside more money for potentially bad loans? mark: thanks for having me. on average, this was one of the weakest quarters for all of the large canadian banks since really 2020. we are seeing this underperformance before the economy has absorbed the full impact of rate hikes. that said, banks are in a good position, including cibc, from a capital, liquidity, and loan quality perspective. not only that, signs that the pressures on earnings are stabilizing, even if they are not going away anytime soon. jon: i think one of the
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challenges within the banking sector is figure out where the potential source spots are with the regional banks. there's been a lot of focus on what is happening in the commercial real estate market. cibc talked about some of the challenges there. in canada, where you have a lot of people in shorter duration mortgages than the u.s., there is a look at the health of the economy given these higher interest rates we have seen. what are you watching to try and determine the health of the north american banking sector right now? mark: for all the banks across north america i think we look at three things, and this has been the motif for the last year or so. the cost of deposits, which have been going up steadily, after the benefits from the rate hiking cycle wore off. then you have the cost of salaries. operating expensive, negative operating leverage has really been embedded.
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lastly, as you mentioned, the provisions for bad loans. those have roughly doubled at the canadian banks over the course of the last year. but when you look at a quarter over quarter basis, all three of those pressures seem to be stabilizing, which is good news, provides some positive takeaway. vonnie: mark, since the failures of signature and svb here in march, regulators have proposed to put in place in the next three years a whole raft of things like living wills, more money into a pot in case of systemic crisis. are there any concerns like that about canadian banks, that there might be issues with what is on the books, whether it is marked to market and so on? mark: the domestically important
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banks in canada are already complying with a rash of those large regulatory requirements regarding resolution, regarding mark to market. it is not really a huge concern for these banks. they are already compliant with the international standards. liquidity coverage ratio, they include aoci in their regulatory capital. what you do see is some incremental changes on the margin to their capital requirements. they talk about the impact of a forthcoming market risk charge. but they are already compliant with the highest international standards so it is less of a concern for them. vonnie: we have seen plenty of moves with the loonie as well this year, interest rates, but the bank of canada might be done or nearly done. how are banks reacting to what it will do to their bottom lines
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in terms of deposits and so on? mark: this we did see some positives. just to recap, at the beginning of the hiking cycle, banks were benefited from the rising rate environment. for the last year, deposit, so i really started rising quickly. more importantly, the mix of those deposits have been changing unfavorably as customers are moving their money from demand accounts to higher-yielding term accounts, gic's. but the good news is the rate of net interest margin compression is slowing. in fact, for a couple of banks reporting this week, net interest margins were actually flat or up quarter over quarter. it looks like we are reaching kind of a peak net interest margin compression. surely it will float around a little bit, but i think the
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worst of the compression may be over, particularly if the bank of canada has reached or approached its terminal policy rate. jon: one other consideration trying to improve margins is the level of employment. we are waiting for the u.s. drudge report tomorrow, a week away from the next canadian jobs report. cost cutting or cost controls have been one of the takeaways from the canadian bank earnings season. what does the employment picture look like going forward in your opinion? mark: like i said, negative operating leverage have been a big motive last year. we heard banks trying to make large and frequent salary adjustments to retain their staff. that continues to be a theme. but i think but we heard on the earnings calls over the last few days was tougher rhetoric about cost cutting, including staff
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reductions announced by royal bank and bank of montreal. expensive have also been kind of inflated related to integrations of recent acquisitions, some litigation charges, etc. i think the message over all is that this war for talent has kind of abated. that should help banks manage their operating costs a little bit better. to your question about broader unemployment. were unemployment to rise among bank customers, that would clearly be incrementally negative for credit quality. jon: one of the trends we will have to watch. thanks for your time today. mark narron, senior director at fitch on the banking system. coming up, we will talk about the travel world. google says it is the best time to book vacation flights. we will chat with the hopper
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vonnie: this is "bloomberg markets." i'm vonnie quinn. ahead of the long holiday weekend, affordability is a big question for many travelers. under the soaring costs of living, a good deal could be make or break in terms of locking down your next vacation. canadian startup hopper is betting on that with its price prediction tools. let's bring in cofounder of hopper dakota smith for more. first question on anyone's mind is when do i need to be booking if it is a vacation coming up and i want the best deal? dakota: thanks for having me.
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short answer is book as far in advance as you can. that is where hopper's tools come in handy. you can set up a trip, received price alerts, and receive information about price volatility. consumers are booking last-minute still, a trend that has carried over from the pandemic. that is costing them what it is time to book because it is costing them more due to that. jon: a lot of focus on ai this year, something that you have been focused on for quite some time. talking about elon musk trying to build and everything app. you are focused on building a travel super app. why does that work, and why our younger travelers leaning into that? dakota: ai has been at the core of what we have been doing at hopper for a long time along with big data. our price predictor is based on trillions of data points, uses machine learning to help consumers find the best time to
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book. similarly, we have a suite of fintech products that give consumers more flexibility when they are booking. those are all using machine learning, too. we are starting to explore more generative ai models like chatgpt, helping customers plan their trips. we are best known for our app, installed about 100 million times, predominately used by younger travelers. i think our average consumer age is 25. they are looking for great prices, flexible on dates and even destinations. we are trying to guide them to make the right decisions. vonnie: how does hopper make its money? do you get a percentage of the booking if there is a booking, advertising? dakota: we get a percentage of everything we sell. this year we will sell about $6 billion worth of travel products, directly in our app,
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but also in our b2b partnerships. when someone buys a hotel or flight, we earn a percentage of that as a commission as the supplier. similarly, we also sell our own suite of fintech products that maybe give consumers flexibility or peace of mind. one example is a product called price freeze, where you can lock in a price on the app for up to 21 days. jon: we should note, your cofounder told us not long ago that an ipo might be something that you would consider. your business is growing quickly. given you have all about access to data, we talked about earlier, how it's been an interesting summer. a lot of people going out to concerts, but can spend and continue if the economy is cooling? does your data give you any insight as to whether travelers will be doing the same amount of traveling into next year? dakota: that is the question for
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the entire industry. the data that we see doesn't show any softening of consumer demand. even surveying our consumers to try and stay ahead of trends, 80% of customers said they plan on spending more on travel in the coming year than last year. this year, this summer was the first time that international travel returned to pre-pandemic levels. that was not exaggerated, that a lot of americans and canadians were traveling to europe this summer, but we even saw travel to asia returned to pre-pandemic levels. so far there are no signs that the surge is abating. jon: thank you so much for the perspective. dakota smith of hopper joining us on travel trends. ahead of a big weekend in the markets, as we wrap up august, we are seeing some cautious trading in the market. vonnie: markets were a little bit relieved after jackson hole but also some trepidation about tomorrow's jobs report. jon: we will be watching that
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>> allies on the labor market on this last trading day of august. live from studio to at bloomberg headquarters in new york, i'm katie greifeld. vonnie: we are kicking you out to the closing bell here in the u.s. we had a triumphant week for stock bulls but it is fizzling a bit. the s&p 500 is up .1%. it was lower earlier. there are some individual stories that we will be getting through today. the
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