>> good morning.

welcome to bloomberg daybreak australia. >> good evening. the top stories this hour. u.s. stocks close a tough month as the fed's preferred inflation gauges rise. treasury yields extending their retreat with the jobs report in focus. >> china is reducing down payments for big-city homebuyers. turmoil for some of australia's corporate giants. qantas airline student for selling seats on canceled flights. not a lot of movement after u.s. stocks fluctuated between gains and losses. we ended the session down for the s&p 500. it was a tough month. the first month slide since

february. one sector rising westech. we have yields continuing the downtrend. you can see the 10 year yield. this says we continued to get reports pointing to moderation with a mixed eco-data. the smallest back-to-back increases since late 2020, encouraging consumer spending, but all of this i had a dog u.s. jobs markets. we are watching dell surging after better-than-expected earnings. the nasdaq also had a tough month. the worst month since december. oil prices under pressure, but this after rising for six sessions. russia breanna and further opec+ cuts -- agree and to further

opec+ cuts. shery: the jobs report the next big focus for markets. let's bring in our global economics correspondent. we have the preferred gauges of inflation today, also more eco-data. what are we expected in terms of the jobs numbers and what it means for the fed? >> the jobs numbers are supposed to confirm the slow down in the labor market. you are probably going to see a hit from the hollywood writers and a big trucking company that went under recently. that will impact the jobs. there will be someone off quirks linked to the big boom of spending on the movies this

year. it has added up to a jobs market that is slowing down. keep in i out on things like hours worked -- an eye out on things that are like hours worked. >> i think all indications are the market is expected in the fed is as close to hiking. there will be a big focus on inflation in the weeks ahead for where the next fed decision goes from here. haidi: in terms of what investors are pricing this market, is it wait-and-see?

is the expectation of a softer fed been priced in? >> seems to be the market expect in the fed will do nothing at the september meeting. all focus on the november meeting where they will do one more hike. there is a long time between now and then. there is a lot of data the fed can study. keep in mind, tomorrow will be friday trading before a long weekend here in the united states. you will probably see some moves that probably not make sense. shery: when it comes to the market reaction, we have seen investors trying to figure out how what is happening in china in terms of boosting the economy there. what are we seeing in terms of measures that could help the chinese economy? >> i know from this vantage point, all expectations are one

will the big stimulus guns be turned on? we had news out of beijing today that they will bring down down payments and mortgage repayments. these are incremental measures. the perception is it is not yet at the big bang stage to rev up demand for new homes. stress continues in the credit markets. we see the headlines about country garden every day. the pmi looked a little better yesterday, services looking weak. the world is waiting for some kind of a major stimulus effort from china, but it has not arrived through these measures. shery: we continuously have seen

one measure after the other and the markets have been pretty muted. not a lot is working in boosted investor confidence in the chinese markets. >> your absolutely right. we are seeing incremental moves, but markets are not expecting a big bang kind of stimulus. there is no bazooka so to speak. the impression is beijing will do just enough to keep the 5% target this year. haidi: there is this existential overlay to the china economy issue, whether this is a structural or cyclical slow down. going forward, does it mean expectations should be managed? that we should see slower growth for longer?

>> i think that is the general expectation. there are a lot of structural issues at work. at the beginning of the reopening, the market was expecting a quick rebound in consumer spending, but they quickly realized the structural forces are more powerful. that includes the aging population. we have to get used to china grown at 4% in the next couple of years as opposed to 6-8% in the last decade. haidi: this is the new normal for expectations from china. how big is the risk to deflationary minds become an entrenched? >> there is a line going around

that china will export deflation this year. it seems like the world has decided there was a real estate problem going on there. the point is that confidence in china and sentiment towards china is at lowest in many years. whether or not you are a bull or a bear, there is a view that china's economy is facing big structural issues. growth at 5% for an economy that size is still pretty robust. haidi: the latest measures on

the property market will color how sentiment shapes up. it is going to be a weather disrupted session as we see hong kong making preparations for a direct hit from the typhoon. it could be the biggest storm to affect the area in five years. be watching out for the disruptive elements of that. elsewhere, a pretty muted start to september. asian stocks coming up there worst monthly drop since february of this year as these china worries continue. we saw modestly higher economic data when it comes to consumer confidence. a gain of 1.6 percent from the previous month.

kiwi stocks not seen much of a boost there. these valuations have been climbing in japan. the ws for one despite the market rallied being at a three decade high, they are still lacking a number of these big-name stocks remaining cheap. you can read more on that on bloomberg. a couple of stocks to watch. can't twist lawsuit for the allegation of selling seats on canceled flights. shery: ubs is signaling plans to shut down to the roots of credit suisse is investment bank, underlining the scale of job cuts to come. we hear from the ceo in a few minutes.

but first, why investment banks the fed could skip september rate hike. more in their outlook next. this is bloomberg. ♪

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the macroeconomy i feel policy is appropriately restrictive. i think we should be cautious and patient and let restrictive policy continue to influence the economy less sweet risk tightening too much. haidi: that was the atlanta fed president there. our next guest says the fed could skip in september. let's bring in dana d'auria from envestnet inc. there is a hasn't to seek to escape at rate cuts either. -- hesitancy to seek to escape rate cuts either. >> if you parse the comments that we got from the jackson

hole meeting, they are saying we are going to look closely at the data and they took pains to talk about the mix of data they are seeing. inflation has come down precipitously in the same way it came up. so that is good. we know the fed is looking closely assigns of not having the firm hold on inflation they want. we are probably going to have a skip in september, but it is really going to be about the data that comes. haidi: does that mean the threat of high-yield test pulled back -- has pulled back somewhat? are equity markets strong enough to stand the drain on liquidity? >> i think markets have already

priced in what we are seeing. i think what what upset markets would be if some kind of unexpected change like the jobs report. we are not expecting some big change there. obviously if that came in an unexpected way, that could change the picture. data we are seeing, gdp revised down, which is a reason you would say the fed now would skip. they do not want to be overly restrictive. 2.4% was practically blow out. we're still doing pretty well and looking good relative to expectations where we started this year. but i think the market has put too much priced in the notion we are probably going to skip in september.

november, there is a lot of data to come between now and november. we will see. the effective yields as they are now and the liquidity drain we are expecting, i think the market has a fairly decent handle on. are you seeing more broadening of the market? some of the laggards have been pretty resilient. >> that has definitely been the case. tech and communications have become synonymous with respondent risk off. -- risk on, risk off. tremendous performance, but as of late we saw in august not altogether, small-cap as well. but those mega-caps somewhat of a kid and some of it is the market pricing.

the expectation of growth that will come from something like ai , what we have seen in terms of success there. that speaks to the ability to generate revenue and cash flow, but at the same time the discount rate is up precipitously. if it goes up again, i think it has an impact. shery: where are you seeing treasury yields headed from now that here? >> we have been the beneficiary for a long time and i think some of what we have seen happening in yields has to do with what we saw happening in japan. yields are difficult to predict. there is as always a few different forces interacting and

variables coming to bear on that. we are still in an inverted curve situation. what really happens in terms of due 10 years catch up with shorter term rates? at some point, we need to see some evening out. we also have political information. we are probably -- there is certainly the possibility of another government shutdown looming. we have deficit considerations that will make a difference for fiscal spending. all of these things well impact on rates. her to say where they go from here, but i think the bond market is a pretty decent indicator of what to expect from

markets in general. we are still inverted. shery: what can we expect in terms of the impact coming from china? the economic news has been pretty negative, but we are seeing policymakers trying to support growth. how much of an impact will this have on global markets? >> i think a fair impact. i think we have already seen it. the expectation of growth in china has had significant impact on markets. government interference in markets and what to expect, are they going to step in and do something to support the property market over there? the answers to that have an impact. we are working with advisors for

retail clients. what is the market to them? it is u.s., s&p 500, but also the global benchmark if you will. china is a big piece of that. china has a fair portion of the emerging markets piece of that index. it absolutely has impact on client portfolios in the u.s.. shery: always good getting your thoughts, dana d'auria from envestnet inc. a very active trading week. you can get a roundup of all of these stories on today's addition of daybreak. terminal subscribers go to dayb and customize your settings. this is bloomberg. ♪

shery: bitcoin is closing out its second month of declines despite a spike this week after a court ruling. su keenan joins us. the grayscale victory not enough to help the flight. >> call it traders being away on vacation. but bitcoin has been stuck in a tight trading range. while we saw a strong rally on tuesday in the united states, bitcoin went up as much as 6%, it has pulled back. what we are seeing is a return to the tight range. in the chart, a steep drop in august where the coin felt be to

-- below 26,000. the brief rally from the ruling really not a game changer for the direction of bitcoin. there are many that believe the grayscale decision, where grayscale saw a spot bitcoin etf has definitely made a big difference. what we are seeing here is a different chart. what we are seeing with grayscale is, many think a game changer in that what will happen is the court ruled the sec's decision was capricious and arbitrary and it cannot hold. the whole rejection that we have seen from the sec for two straight years they had the coin back on its heels and this has caused the problem because it has prevented bitcoin from

getting into the mainstream. analysts are saying one of the things important to keep in mind is that while the grayscale decision was viewed as a major, when you have the fact that regulators in to contain the wild wild west of the financial crypto verse, it is going to be a more drawnout decision. it is not a quick win. that is what is settling in with the price action with weight and other cryptocurrencies. -- bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. many analysts had seen this coming, this decision from the appellate court was a severe rebuke of the sec's chair gary gensler and his stance. no surprise in a way that the seven etf bitcoin applications

that were up for review have now been deferred. this was posted on the sec's website. bitwise was going to be decided friday. that has been deferred along with the group of others. these were the major applications. the decision took apart the sec or gary gensler's opposition to bitcoin spot etf's. haidi: more to come here on daybreak australia. daybreak australia. this is bloomberg. it's an amazing thing

when you show generosity of spirit to someone. and you want people to be saved and to have a better life, then you don't stop. we have been able to reach over 100 million people impacted and affected, and at risk of hiv. the rocket fund takes all of the work that we're doing, all over the world, and looks at the most effective ways, to get resources to them, to get services to them. the idea that we have saved five million people's lives, it's overwhelming. it's everything. haidi: where expecting payroll

from the u.s. friday. our next guest says the fed is nearing the peak of the current tightening cycle. joining us now is carl tannenbaum from the northern trust company. great to have you with us. we are still expecting those u.s. jobs numbers, perhaps lower job growth and cooling wage gains, but they are still pretty resilient. what makes you think we are at the peak of what the fed will do from here? >> good morning. the job news in the united states is cooling off a little bit but it is still warm. earlier this week, statistics on voluntary turnover are moderating.

the number of open positions has also come down from a very high peak. the expectation for payroll game on friday morning is a little bit more modest. if you look at the numbers a different way, in a good month, the u.s. economy only has to create 100,000 jobs to keep the unemployment rate constant. if we get what we are expecting, it is still a sign that wages are good and that is boding well for future economic growth here. shery: layoffs have been subdued as well. what does this tell you about the possibility of a soft landing? if we see the fed pause, will it still be higher for longer? >> i think it has been the big reevaluation on the market. it will be a close call in september. inflation is coming down but is

still well above the target. the discussion will center on whether the interest rate increases done so far will be enough for the next four quarters to hold activity down to the level that would be consistent to getting somewhere in the neighborhood of the 2% inflation target. bank lending conditions here are tighter than they were. they are beginning to see some signs of consumer fatigue. if we get the spending moderation that should take some pressure off of prices and create that soft landing. haidi: how much does the impact of what is going on outside of the u.s. plate? how much concerned with their be with the chinese economy? >> that is a great question. i have been following the chinese numbers very closely. they are in a challenging situation.

it comes up in the u.s. context in the form of imported disinflation. china sells a lot of goods here and consumption in america has shifted from goods to services since the covid reopening. we have gotten really fun goods prices. the remain in sticky points are on the service side with things like travel and entertainment. we are going to need to see some moderation in those categories. haidi: how difficult will it be for inflation mandates given we are expected to see greater influence from climate, weather, geopolitical influence? will this make it more difficult for policymakers? >> yes, i think they are.

we do seem to be turning a little bit away from globalization. there is more into region trade going on. a set of policies related to trade with china moving for western countries. the globalization trend was very disinflationary and provided lower cost, more choice. i would think the reversal of that process will add a little bit to inflation. that will make the challenge of central bankers harder. haidi: where does the dollar go from here? >> it has come off the boil certainly. we are doing ourselves no favors. you must be mystified at some of the strange things happening in

washington. we could have a government shutdown. we had a downgrade of national debt. that has not helped the dollar relative to other currencies. but i would say given the challenges in other major markets, the dollar is at least in my view unlikely to depreciate that much further. haidi: always great to have you with us, carl tannenbaum from the northern trust company. president xi jinping is planning to skip the g20 summit. that could be seen as a snub. the u.s. treasury secretary janet yellen will accompany president biden to the summit.

former u.s. house speaker nancy pelosi says u.s. and chinese leaders do not have shared values, but must reach accommodation on how they treat each other. >> science security, what is happening in ukraine is a challenge to democracy, not just their or in nato countries, but really to the world. what attribute to democracy the courage of the ukrainian people. vladimir putin does not share any values of democracy, of justice, of respect of the lives of people, concern for children or anything. he is frightening, but what is more frightening is a person like the former president to think that is ok.

it is sad and extreme. >> when you look at china, what the u.s. has been doing with china and how they should treat china going forward. >> china is a big country and so are we. we have to find accommodation with how we treat each other. in terms of security, china has been a violator of transferring technology and weapons of mass destruction to rogue countries. in terms of economics, they have violated almost every trade standard of access, piracy. in terms of governance, hong kong, tibet and the rest. we do not have shared values,

but we are on a shared planet and we have to work with the chinese to save the planet, there one of the biggest emitters. they are part of the solution in all of this. shery: former u.s. house speaker nancy pelosi. you can watch that on leaders with lot while on september 27. if you miss any part of that conversation or you want to watch us live, tv is also your function. you can dive into any of the functions we talk about, plus become part of the conversation by sending us instant messages during our shows. this is for bloomberg's subscribers only. check it out on tv . this is bloomberg. ♪

haidi: australia's most high profile company is dealing with a reputational crisis. qantas airlines allegedly sold tickets on flights that were already canceled. paul allen joins us with more. let's start with fortescue.

>> after three months on the job, the cfo is gone and she replace the longer serving cfo who left in january. on monday, the ceo departed very suddenly. they address that on wednesday of this week after getting no real explanation of why she had gone. he alluded to different directions and suggested the more upheaval may be coming in the c suite as well. fortescue spending a lot, but their turnover in the c suite, 11 executives over three years, talks to the lack of direction. shery: qantas airlines being

sued for selling tickets on flights that were already canceled. >> there has been outrage and wall-to-wall media coverage. selling tickets on flights i have already been canceled, a thousand flights between may and june in 2022. qantas airlines cap selling them for an average of two weeks after they knew internally those flights would never leave the ground and delayed telling ticketholders about it. they put out a release same happen in 2022. they also cancel unredeemed flight credits.

qantas says the flight credits, we were going to remove the expiry date because we listened to customers. i think customers will be making their own decision about the timing. haidi: are there implications for the government to get dragged into this? >> yes, the assistant treasurer addressed the huge record profit , saying this is a good news story for australia. but if you take the profit and look at it in the context of what we just talked about, the government blocked an application from another airline to add more capacity. that would have made things better for consumers, but there might got locked. one more ingredient for this, at

the knee albany's -- anthony albanese's son has an invitation to the chairman's lungs. this really does not look good. haidi: paul allen in sydney with the big corporate stories. after announcing record profits ubs is outlining targets with credit suisse. 3000 job cuts in switzerland over the next three years. >> it is difficult to do a restructuring, the restructuring necessary in credit suisse. there is a big element of the cost that is driven by realistic planning and by i.t. platform

shutdowns. on the account front, we are counting a lot on natural attrition, on retirements and shifting our permanent to external account ratio. having said that, we are going to have to take some action in redundancies in the years to come. this is something that will affect our entire workforce. as much as in switzerland, we expect from a proactive standpoint, we have around 3000 jobs that will be made redundant over the next year's. 1000 are in relation to our decision to integrate the swiss bank. if we would have chosen to spin off the swiss bank, we would

have had to reduce by 600. we have another 2000 that needs to be, that will go through a redundancy because of the restructuring. we are lucky that we are a very healthy labor market in switzerland. there are more than 6000 jobs open in switzerland. it is a healthy market. we are also helping our -- the people affected, financial, retreating and we try to mitigate the decision. it is painful to go through this exercise. >> is that too soon to say what

your final headcount will look like in two years? >> we are not talking about headcounts. the size of the country, the relevance of both organizations, we want to be specific about giving clarity on this issue. broadly speaking, you will see how the workforce is changing. since the beginning of the year at credit suisse, we are already at 8000 reduction in workforce. this is a consequence of the cost measures that credit suisse has initiated itself. and we have been accelerating that in the second quarter. shery: some stories we are tracking. broadcom fell after given a

disappointing forecast. the chipmaker expects revenue at $9.27 million, the slow skating since 2020. -- the slowest gain since 2020. the ceo said the growth is coming from a i related spending. arm holdings is preparing to set they price range for its ipo next week before an investor roadshow. they will price their shares on september 13 and could start treating the next day. arm is looking to raise five-$7,000,000,000 in the listing. dell gain and after the bell following better-than-expected quarterly sales. it is fueling hopes for recovery in the market for corporate technology.

demand for products to help users with artificial intelligence are a long-term tailwind. sure to tune into bloombergradio , now broadcasting live from our studio in hong kong. listen from the app. plenty more ahead. stay with us. ♪ almost is just another word for not as good as mine. save 50% on the sleep number limited edition smart bed. plus, free home delivery when you add a base. shop now only at sleep number. fabulous surroundings... but everyone's looking at their phones for financial insights from merrill. is he hailing a ride to the concert hall? no. he's making sure his portfolio and retirement plans work in harmony. they want to adopt a child and build a new home. so they're talking numbers with their merrill adviser. she's not researching her next role. she's learning how to handle market ups and downs

without the drama. personalized advice so impressive your money never stops working for you with merrill. a bank of america company. my cpa told me i wouldn't qualify for the erc tax refund, so i called innovation refunds. their team of independent tax attorneys will work with your cpa to determine if your company is eligible. [whip sound] take the first step to see if your small business qualifies. shery: we take you live to hong

kong. it is not as cloudy or as gloomy as we had expected given that we are preparing for a direct hit by the super typhoon. that could be the strongest storm to hit hong kong in at least five years. we are not necessarily seen that yet. but the city has issued a storm warning number eight that has shut down the stock market in the city. we have lived through these typhoons and we have to give it to our producers who are in the office trying to produce these shows. haidi: i remember so vividly

when we were both in hong kong. it makes me nostalgic for hong kong. but this could be a pretty significant one given that we saw the disruption when it went through the philippines. thousands of people had to evacuate. cathay pacific paul broun flights been affected in hong kong. -- well grounded flights being affected in hong kong. the local weather agency will be the one to watch to see what further signals might be elevated. it is about half of all flights going in and out of hong kong international airports. it will be very quiet at the airport on friday going into saturday.

they have not ruled out for flight delays and cancellations. we will continue to watch for all of those implications and what happens when it comes to hong kong treating and that cancellation as well. shery: i do not miss those typhoons. how many typhoons did we used to get every year? we are continuing to see more of these events that become very disruptive. he talked about the hong kong market closing today. look at the set up for futures today. lacking a clear direction on the wall street session. we ended the session down. the s&p 500 losing ground in the first time in five sessions. kiwi stocks are reversing the gains we saw on the previous

session. sydney futures putting down. nikkei futures are slightly higher. the japanese yen treated marginally around the 145 level. we are going to get company profit numbers in japan. at do taiwan, we saw four sessions of gains for japanese stocks, all to do with where the boj is headed. if we see a 150 per dollar level for the japanese yen that could trigger the boj to intervene in the markets. a busy week as we wrap up this august session for the united states. haidi: it was really want to forget for asia as well when it comes to price action. all of the stress will flow into september when it comes to the chinese economy and whether

these policies will have a positive impact. take a look at australian bonds, we have seen positive action. there have been ongoing concerns about china's slowdown. we are also seeing treasuries managing to hold on ahead of the index rebalancing. pretty little changed. we head into a pretty volatile start to treating on this first day of september. that is it for daybreak australia. daybreak: asia is next. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> how do we charge back into

ukraine as soon as the european authorities say it is safe to fly there again? nobody knows when that will be. but when the russians invaded last year, we would be ukraine's biggest airline the week after they tell us it is safe to go back there because we will charge in there. initially, we planned to open a airport back in the european union and then within six months total months, we wanted to open up three or four bases in ukraine, and we talked about creating an environment constantly, one which we could lead the charge in a postwar ukrainian recovery. ♪