>> a very good morning, welcome

to "bloomberg daybreak: australia." where can take them to measure pressure as major market opens. shery: good evening. our top stories, big bond investors betting fed hikes may be over as the u.s. labor market shows signs of cracking, traders are looking for clues on the timing of any pivot to rate cuts. haidi: country garden as a coupon payment on a bond after winning approval to extend payment on a separate loan no. shery: xi jinping pledges to continue opening up markets or pursuing china's own development path as economic worries grow. u.s. futures coming online in the age of a date session, pretty muted at the moment after he sought u.s. stocks rising on the friday session about fading a rally as a bond yields climbed. we had a strong the fracturing report upsetting jobs data optimism, jobs report showing to

labor market undergoing a controlled cooling, but all in all the s&p 500 actually ended with its best week since june. the energy sector rallied, given that we had oil, wti topping $85 a barrel. in fact, the longest winning streak since january, seven sessions of gains come the highest settlement since november. we continue to hear more about opec+'s efforts to reduce applied at a time when -- reduce supply at a time when trying to may be coming up with a measures. what markets cared about was that jobs were. u.s. hiring picking up in august as wage growth slowed offering a mixed picture for the fed of both resilience and moderation in the labor market. let's get more from vonnie quinn. it seemed to be broad-based. vonnie: it was such an interesting report, we got many more jobs created them forecast, 187,000 jobs created, but if you

look into the details, there are a few cracks showing, which is welcome news for the federal reserve. for example, participation rate rose. that means there are hundreds of thousands of more people looking to get them in this labor market, the first time we have seen that in some time. the participation rate had been fairly stagnant. he sought hourly wage growth slowing notably. it arose, but it is slowing. past prince were revised -- prints were revised down, so definitely less resilience in the labor market. it has been the labor market resilience that has caused the fed to not worry about when it is going to finish its tightening cycle, so this jobs report did provide a glimmer of hope for bond investors are that perhaps of this tightening cycle is done, and we heard from many of them including pimco who

manages $1.8 trillion in mostly bond funds. pimco said it is it then about looking at the first cut, and that leads to steeper curves. everyone is talking about curve steepening trade being put on right now. jeff rosenberg of black rock saying this adds up to restrictive policy for longer, not hire for longer. if we look at the federal reserve, there are still those extremely worried about inflation and whether that will start to heat up including the cleveland fed president. she spoke after the jobs numbers came out at a conference hosted by the cleveland fed in frankfurt, germany where the ecb is located, and she basically said the future policy decisions are going to be more about managing the risks and intertemporal costs of tightening versus under tightening monetary policy. have a listen to some of what she said. >> although there has been some

progress, inflation remains high , and the fomc is committed to moving inflation down to 2%. the monetary policy questions are whether the current level of the fed funds rate is sufficiently restrictive and how long policy will need to remain restrictive to keep inflation moving down in a sustained and timely way to our goal of 2%. vonnie: loretta not giving up on the idea that another rate hike might be necessary and we will need to see more data in order to make a decision. log into variable legs are under question. -- lags are under question. traders have priced in the terminal rate. what you are looking at is a 50-50 or slightly lower odds that the fed is going to go again at all, and that is all that traders need to think. bloomberg economics says the risks for the fed's dual mandate

which is maximum sustainable employment and stable prices, those risks are more evenly balanced, and that perhaps gives the fed a little more leeway. haidi: it will be front and center in terms of this hard versus soft landing, reading the tea leaves on the fed and what the policy trajectory will look like from here. vonnie: we will get a lot of tea leaves in the next week. it is a holiday shortened weekend with no monday session, but it is the week before the fed's lockout period. we will get seven fed speakers, was event residence at the governor. we have john williams, susan collins, austin from chicago, raphael bostic and under the governor will all be giving their impressions of where the economy is at right now. we have an advantage gdp number that is really hot, but we also have some calls for a recession still including bloomberg

economics. we will get a lot of fed speak and get key data including things like consumer credit. that is one of the questions, will the consumer remain resilient? are those excess savings dwindling to the point where we need to get worried again? haidi: vonnie quinn with the latest on the fed drumbeat, and that will be key for asian markets. it is also a big week when it comes to central-bank policy in his part of the world. the rba meeting, and we are not expecting any surprises there. we are expecting broadly it will stay on hold as we continue to see the data start to slow in the right direction and it comes to inflation. we have inflation numbers due out today as well as a little more data out of china, those

trade numbers out from china as well. sidney futures looking positive, looking to echo sentiment we saw in the friday session in the u.s., up by .4 of 1%. aussie dollar holding steady, 45.51. the news that china and australia set to resume high-level government talks will be key to have the geopolitical relationship plays out as well. she we a softer by .2 of 1%. we have major parties commencing there campaigning ahead of the election. dollar-yen at one 46, and softbank will be want to watch at that tokyo session. aside from the fed, we are continuing to watch at policy messaging out of china, and xi jinping vowing to continue to open the market and on his own terms. we know this delicate balancing act for the leadership, so much talk about structural issues

facing the economy and the limited ability to can put forward a big fiscal and monetary stimulus without adding to those structural issues, but president xi saying they will pursue their own development path amid lingering concerns about the economy. he says china will stay committed to high-quality development and creating new opportunities for cooperation. some pledges to open market access. a lot of this is the same messaging we have heard from the chinese leadership. i do not know if it helps these market investor concerns over where the economy is headed. shery: especially when you keep getting data day after day about the worsening picture for the chinese economy. this week we will get trade numbers, the expectation is for exports and imports to have both declined again. perhaps the declines will be at a milder base than in july, global demand for chinese goods

is so pretty weak, and what i will be watching out for is a domestic demand picture through the decline in imports, which are expected to be steep. bloomberg economics expects a contraction in their import numbers of around 15.4% plunge in imports, that to do with the weakening demand picture especially given the property sector slump. haidi: the inflation picture in china is different from what we have seen across other major economies. consumer price inflation expected to rebound above zero in august according to reporting from the securities times. perhaps we are seeing a little of reflation and maybe that ties in with some of the leading indicators we have seen across services, across consumer data suggesting that at least the chinese consumer and some segments of households remain pretty resilient. so much of that depends on what

happens with the property sector. shery: especially as we continue to watch distress country garden, sources saying the company told creditors that did wired a coupon payment for a bonded due on monday. it won approval for a separate maturing yuan bond, perhaps some relief for the developer, but the brother sector still under pressure. still i had -- ahead, president xi thousand continue open up markets, but some business groups say they need more than just promisors. we can talk investment strategy with hillary kramer. this is bloomberg. ♪

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>> if you average the last three months it is 150 thousand jobs. this is a transition from the breakneck speed of the fed recovery we saw initially. >> the stubbornly low unemployment rate finally taking up i think is good news, but you have to be careful. the labor market can be a slippery slope. >> i think the fed should be done given this number unless you got something significant on cpi. i think they are not going in september. >> you were seeing the goldilocks scenario the fed wants. >> this is the report the market was looking for. >> we are on track for a soft

landing. >> that fall into a technical recession does not look like as of now. shery: tv guess reacting to august job numbers that if the u.s. and our next guest says the world is learning to live with higher yields. hillary kramer is a chief investment officer and joins me here. great to have you back. the treasury action on friday were so interesting, because we saw yields decline, but then it yields ended up higher because of a stronger manufacturing number. how do trade in this volatility question -- volatility? >>. >>there are so many questions about this high rate environment bringing down the economy both for the consumer and commercially. look at the disruptors. really, the companies that are

changing the game. there was a time we could buy 3m and catch a bid on it and have a nice dividend yield, but now we have to look to companies like roku and shopify and new ipo companies, like one trying to compete with sephora. shery: how important is that those companies are profitable now, because if you had higher yields, they would be under pressure. >> and that has always been the conundrum of the nasdaq as soon as you seal those yields higher, it is finance 101. it makes it much more expensive for those companies, but they are such a differentiator, and it is not just with ai, but we certainly saw beyond stellar numbers from nvidia and the new partnership that it is not over there. plus there is a big appetite.

there are so few companies publicly traded today when you look back historically, so when we look at the ipo market, there just is not much out there, and that helps demand. what also helps demand is that there is a lot of cash on the sidelines, because a lot of cash put into the system is still waiting to deploy, and that is why i am not worried about september. haidi: you talk about the fixation on the now, and that is always the shortsightedness of these markets. if you fast-forward to this time next year, where do you think you would want to be invested? >> you would want to be invested in technology, these newer companies coming out, not in traditional companies. there are a few exceptions. i have always loved the company sysco, which is food service, because everything is coming back in terms of sports and

institutions. we are expecting september will bring so many more employees back into the office, so institutional food-service makes a difference. but beyond that, you want to be looking at those companies that are trying to nip at the heels of others. bill.com is really hurting paychecks, because these newer companies out there doing payroll have discovered, let's get into receivables. let's help with accounting. let's make it a one stop shop instead of putting so much onus onto the companies themselves, and that is making a difference. that is why shopify is so important. anyone not on amazon is on shopify. i year from now those companies should be great. i already mentioned oddity. using artificial intelligence,

those algorithms are going to make a really big difference. right now there are some issues around them that we all know, because there is a lot of data and intensive labor that has to go into creating ai and making artificial intelligence work well. haidi: this idea of rebuilding the risk curve over the next 6, 12, 18 months is an interesting one to me. do you think expectations and the ability to look forward is volatile at the moment? >> volatility is something we will be dealing with, because there are so many contrarians out there, and there are only different kinds of investors, so i expect you were going to see volatility, but we are definitely going to the upside. the 4550 on the s&p 500, we will break through that. we should see ourselves going

off to the races in the u.s. market. once that happens and we do one more cycle of earnings and see the banks are not under and we can survive with some of those rates and commercial real estate doing poorly. shery: you said you were not worried about september. are you worried about october or november given that we are headed toward another battle in congress for funding? >> i am not worried. there is enough impetus and excitement around these areas of new technology in sectors that are emerging that will make a difference. i am not worried october or december either. the market really wants to go up. my big statement is we are used to higher rates. we have been able to adjust to them. shery: good to have you with us in the new york studio. we also heard from the former

u.s. treasury secretary larry summers saying that the latest u.s. job numbers were strong, but he also told us the path to a soft landing could still be out of reach. >> i think these were good numbers. the economy still looks strong with reasonably robust employment growth slightly greater than expected, hours per week ticked up, which was a favorable indicator. the unemployment went up, but it was driven by the fact that more people want to be working and have been pulled into the labor force, and that all happened with wage growth slightly less than was expected, so i think it is a mistake to make definite judgments based on one number, but this is certainly a favorable set of numbers, which

should please policymakers both on constitution avenue and on pennsylvania avenue. i still think the road to a soft landing is a very difficult one, but this was a step down that road. david: let me pick on an analogy that you use before about trying to land the plane. given these numbers, does it at least look like we are on the right side -- glide path? >> these numbers are consistent with the very optimistic scenarios. i do not think that they determine that they are in a very optimistic scenario, but there are all sorts of things that could have been alarm bells in today's numbers that did not ring, and that alarm bell that

did not ring like the proverbial dog that did not bark is a meaningful sign that should be recognized. haidi: former aide treasury secretary larry summers is speaking exclusively with david westin on wall street we. you can get around up of the stories you need to get your day going in today's edition of daybreak. terminal subscribers can find that dayb and customize your settings for the news on the industries that you care about. this is bloomberg. ♪

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arm's largest customers as strategic investors. sources telling bloomberg include nvidia, apple, and an could put amounts ranging from $25 million to $100 million. a show of support from the tech industry could bolster the offering with an investor roadshow expected to kick off next week. india's richest bank owner as resigned as the lender. his resignation came earlier than expected. the billionaire cited personal reasons for the decision. the joint managing director will take over as interim ceo until the end of this year. saudi aramco is considering selling $50 billion in chairs in what could be the largest offering in capital markets history according to the wall street journal. the new offerings will go up.

the report says the timing of the deal has not been confirmed and could happen by the end of the year. shery: take a look at commodities trading at the moment. oil prices extending gains that we saw in the new york session. wti settling at the highest level since november. it's longest winning streak since january. we continue to see efforts by opec+ to redo supplies, not to mention optimism over stimulus measures coming from china. it is a supply issue across the board when it comes to commodities. european natural gas futures, we see an extension of gains. australian labor disputes this past month, and europe has managed to cope without much russian gas after severe supply caps, the global market remains tight. we are also watching rice prices, because in asia they jumped back near the highest

level in almost 15 years. we see more action from india when it comes to curbing its exports that has panicked governments from india to west africa. philippines pricing price caps on grain after the retail cost for rice soared. i made all of the economic gloom out of china, the center for strategic and international studies tells us why it is premature to declare a permanent slowdown. scott kennedy joins us next. this is bloomberg. ♪ i may be known for my legendary football career, but truth is, i love a bunch of sports. the only trouble is knowing where to find them. that's why i got xfinity. so, i can easily find and watch whatever sport i'm into all in one place without missing a thing. even if it's football, australian football, or football football. in a word—it's fitz-credible.

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♪ heidi: global stocks could drop

as much as 10% second half if the economy does not pick up and inflation remains high. he told us exclusively there are still doubts on whether the global economy can achieve a soft landing. >> compared to six months ago when there was a serious chance of a real hard landing for the global economy that risk has reduced now. that is the good nerves -- news. but there is still a question as to whether the economy will achieve a soft landing or a bumpy landing. above the landing is a short and shallow recession. that has already started in the euro zone. the u.k., with very high inflation, it's probably heading towards recession as well. in slide down -- china there is a slowdown of growth that is not just cyclical harm a more structural. in the u.s. the jury is out whether there will be a soft landing or a short and shallow

recession. >> is a fed policy or a bull market that could collapse? >> in the u.s. the economy has recently grown above potential with a tight labor market at a tight goods market. it is good news in achieving a soft landing but bad news for the fed because it implies the fed may have to hike once or twice more and eventually the fed funds rate might hit 600 or 500 and the more that happens the greater the risk of a short and shallow recession. but the economic data has been strong. >> what do you make of china now and what are the markets most misunderstanding about the world economy and how equities and bonds should behave? >> in china the reduction in growth is not cyclical, it is structural. because of the age in the population, that leverage, the housing.

and, the corporate geopolitical depression. the effective marxist liniment of xi jinping and so on. i think the best thing going forward is emphasizing security control over government reform. on markets in my view if the global economy is going to weaken, if there is a meaningful chance of a bumpy landing, the markets are probably too much today that will probably lead to a correction the second half of the year. economic data is still weak and central banks have to hike more as a way of essentially fighting inflation it will lead to nominal and real rates rising. that means globally bond yields may go higher rather than lower when inflation is still high. >> 10% correction in equity markets?

or is that too high? >> 10%, above, essentially, target recordings high in the u.s., u.k., your. central banks hiking more. i would not be surprised if the second half of the year you get to 10% correction in global equity markets. >> what would you do if you are the bank of england governor? >> the bank of england faces a dilemma. on one side growth is lower because of the self-inflicted goal, the brexit decision by the u.k.. so, that is the most likely case of stagflation. on one side, the economy is headed towards a saarc -- sharp slowdown and potential recession. on the other side or inflation is still high. so you facebook -- a dilemma. the bank of england wants lower inflation, but, that could cause a recession. high interest rates will eventually apply financial

instability. you could have a perfect storm in the u.k.. >> is there anything that fiscal policy or government can do to mitigate that? clark's -- >> fiscal polities -- policies are also a dilemma. now fiscal policy crosses purposes with monetary policy. it too much inflation is because of too much demand. that implies that policies retrenching. the opposite gives -- makes the central bank all of achieving stability harder rather than easier. shery: key events this week. china's fragile recovery remains front and center with trade and inflation data likely to keep pressure on policymakers. the trade report is expected to show exports and imports contracted again in august. cpi numbers this weekend may show continuing deflation.

elsewhere south korea's gdp second-quarter and inflation print for august are due tuesday. on the same day the rba is set to keep interest rates unchanged. southeast asian leaders will be gathering in jakarta for the aussie summit. there is a lot to watch in australia. haidi: you mentioned the rba. on wednesday we get second-quarter gdp numbers for australia as well. the fed's beige book is one to watch for offering anecdotes of recent u.s. legal activity. the bank of canada is expected to hold rates steady and we will get australian trade numbers thursday. malaysia standing pat at its rate meeting on the same day. initial jobless claims out of the u.s. are expected on that day to add to the color when it comes to the job market. to wrap up the week, japan will announce their final second-quarter growth numbers. we will be watching everything

out of the g 20 summit in new delhi. the chinese and russian presidents are set to be notable absentees. that is your week ahead. when it comes to china, chinese business and economics at csis. scott, great to chat with you. there is an ongoing debate at the moment as to what we are seeing in china is a cyclical or structural slowdown or the fact that one is feeding into the other. i know you have been there a number of times recently including a couple months ago. what were your key takeaways from ross roots levels? scott: to some extent there are long-term structural problems the chinese are facing. democracy, data. these are long-term challenges no matter what current policy is. on the ground in china, you find there is a significant crisis of

confidence among private entrepreneurs. among consumers. that crisis is only partly tied to structural issues. like debt and housing. it is tied also to the exit from zero covid and tensions with the united states. those are adjustments on a policy that could be made and could turn things around. though there are long-term structural issues that mean slower growth over the long-term , short-term, actually, with some modest changes in policy you could see improvement in. haidi: it's interesting you seem -- say modest because people said you need big bank stimulus, direct payments to households to turn this around. what measures would you recommend at this point? scott: i think probably the most important thing is for xi

jinping to signal that he had his government and the party care about economic growth and about the private sector. so, that might be having him visit very famous private companies are having them visit with him at the communist party headquarters in beijing. or, other types of policies that appear to give private companies access to sectors where they have been discriminated against. it means for private households, showing the government will increase support for health care. other types of ways that have turned them into crazy savers and not consumers. those kinds of policy signals i think would go along way towards giving the economy at least a little bit of a boost. even though it is facing these long-term structural headwinds. haidi: how long will it take for the boost to come through?

we have seen elon musk, jamie dimon, bill gates in china and more and more announcements of or stimulus to come. scott: let's wait until they put china's top 10 private sector company executives, ceos, and chairman on tv, or xi jinping visiting them. he needs another southern tour like event like joan shopping took in january and february of 1992. it is not whether multinational company executives or bank executives are vetted and get on tv. it is what the domestic and private sector creates. 80% of new jobs, 60% of investment. they are the ones he has to show love to. shery: that's to do with confidence and sentiment on the ground. what about fundamental issues? especially with potential defaults coming from the likes of country garden following evergrande and all of the products linked to the property

sector as well? what that actually means for the broader economy. scott: i think you are exactly right. these are real, serious challenges. they are probably the main reason why we are seeing big problems long-term. even, getting out of these short-term messes. but, the question that we started the conversation with, is this structural or cyclical? i think there is a suitable parasitical element tied to business confidence and consumer confidence that would show some improvement. that would lead folks to begin to speculate there might be a modest turnaround. they will require other kinds of policies to address the debt and for the real estate market to define the bottom. there are other things they can do. it is a complex problem with multiple solutions to address each different component. haidi: one other facet is how

international investors and trade partners approach this. does it give more leverage, do you think, to foreign investors, both on a government level, talking about those level of discussions, and private enterprise? if there is a perception that beijing needs foreign men part -- foreign import more than ever at the moment. scott: i think you are seeing multinationals and foreign financial institutions press their case in beijing at with local governments around china. i think that for the type of conversations that secretary of commerce gina raimondo had a night -- had in beijing and for others china is on the defensive because they don't have the confidence they had before. they have to come at a minimum, show they want to improve their relationship with the u.s. and stabilize things. because, that anxiety that is in that relationship is also filed by domestic investors and consumers, feeding into the lack of confidence to mess tickly.

-- domesticly, giving other some leverage in putting chinese leadership on the defensive. shery: scott kennedy there. let's get more top geopolitical stories around the world. italy's foreign minister is on a three-day visit to china discussing the possibility of his country leaving the belt and road initiative. before heading to beijing he told us. the investment has fallen short of expectations. >> the message is very clear. we want to work with china. it is complex for us. we want to work in the chinese market. we are ready for chinese investment in our country. but, we need the right playing

field. shery: italy's membership in the bri turned into a dilemma for the meloni government, making it an outlier among the g7. it must decide by the end of the year whether to renew its involvement in the program that was once the backbone. economic ties around the world. economic president volodymyr zelenskyy will replace defense alexi resnick off after allegations the department bought military supplies for inflated -- inflated prices. he will be replaced with a man involved in war-related talks as kyiv gears up for its counteroffensive against russia. more to come on daybreak, is is bloomberg.

haidi: australian china center resume high-level government talks following a three year hiatus a step toward stabilizing the relationship between the two key trading partners. let's get more from our australian government reporter ben wescott. good to have you.

we hope this is leading to a leadership visit by the end of the year. ben: exactly right. so, this is assigned dialogue is restarting between the two countries, high-level dialogue between australia and china last happened in 2020. this time it will be chaired by craig emerson a former trade minister and julie bishop a former foreign minister of australia and will take place in beijing itself. while this is just the start of the big visit, prime minister albin -- anthony albanese expected to head over by the end of the year and we expect something around the terrace to coincide with that visit by albanese. shery: tell us more about what we can expect out of the meetings. what are the low hanging fruits in terms of diplomatic achievement? been: --ben: big stuff will be

news on the two australian journalists held in china at the moment. or indeed, the wine tariffs i mentioned earlier. this is more of a way to increase ties across the range of fronts, academia, diplomacy, and business between r-star again china. it is important to remember that the last dialogue happened in 2020. those who are watching closely remember 2020 was the time when australia/china relations went into an absolute deep-freeze with tariffs on barley and wine first coming into place in august 2020. the power of these dialogues should not be overstated but there is no doubt this is positive. haidi: china relations with the region are in focus and that is why you are in jakarta with a summit getting underway tomorrow. what is top of mind for you

there? ben: this is the kickoff of the diplomatic season across this part of the world. we will have the g20 in india towards the end of the week. then in november you have a pack in the u.s.. something notable so far has been the chinese premier will be representing his country at acn and probably also at the g20. that is assigned perhaps he has been delegated with the top-level responsibility for this. all eyes will be on his first outing to the ac in this year and we will see how he does in a significant region for u.s. china competition. haidi: ben wescott joins us from jakarta. it is a big week. let's look at how we are shaping up when it comes to australia and new zealand. bonds, a big week for australia with gdp numbers perhaps more

significant after the rba meeting, the last central-bank decision from phil low. slowing installation the broader -- inflation the broader trend suggesting the rba may have mentioned -- reached the terminal rate. gdp data wednesday is likely to show modern -- modest economic growth momentum. the rba is expected to hold at 4.1% according to all but one economist. 11 year highs for borrowing costs. a pretty muted session when it comes to australian and kiwi bonds with broader equity markets looking to advance amid a long weekend in the u.s.. certainly, there are signs of softening when it comes to the labor market and implications for the fed. we are seeing a little more momentum when it comes to bullishness in the equity market. shery: lion town has gotten a

sweetened albemarle offer of three aussie dollars in cash per share. the world's top lithium producer has had an offer for the australian developer for a while. we are hearing from lion town resources and are granting albemarle exclusive due diligence and they will be revised best and final. they have now received this three aussie dollars in cash per share offer. it is a revised proposal from the world's top lithium producer. we have more to come. this is bloomberg.

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following disappointing sales in china that forced the firm to cut prices. on some models. bmw is unveiling a fully electric platform. the automaker looks to leverage to compete with a range of smaller chinese cvs. oliver: let's embrace this and try to have a fair competition to build ever better products for our customers. >> you mentioned, obviously, china is the largest carmaker. notably the economy is been weakening. what has been bmw's experience?

are you seeing further competition in the market? >> know, this year, we are seeing growth in the new electric segment has been doubling so far. we are very stable in the market because we are operating with purely electric market segments. think about the i seven. it is only launching this year. that's not even one full year. we have the i3. the current figures, bmw is growing in china. there are other manufacturers, but i can only speak for bmw. >> with the aggressive price cut will you have to look at pricing with the macro outlook that is

becoming more and play or? >> look, pricing is an everyday task. do you reach the right price point? i would like to reiterate is that we are not operating in the base segment. we have never done that. we have a very superstrong product, like a lot of tests show. and, we have strong demand. we will never go down 12 volume segment just depressed volume because we do not need to. haidi: that was the bmw ceo there. that is it for daybreak australia. daybreak: asia is next as we count down to the start of trading this monday in asia. this is work. -- this is bloomberg. -- this is bloomberg. the first time you made a sale online with godaddy

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