>> we think there is more downside risk for the next few months. >> when the yields move, they will move down a lot. >> whether things are declining but whether they are declining fast enough. >> i think positioning has changed and you've seen that in the options market. >> they want to slow things down so don't fight the fed. >> this is bloomberg surveillance. jonathan: good morning, good morning, live from new york city this morning. i've been dying to do that since yesterday. this is bloomberg surveillance

on tv and radio. your equity market is positive this morning by 0.4% on the s&p 500. that was quite a news conference on the g20 from the president of the united states. tom: those of us vested in the conference and i wasn't in the united states army. it spiraled out of control. i don't want to overplay it that i believe this was shutting down the press conference early. he is always fraught with emotion and clumsy is the operative word. jonathan: i think that's the right word. pushing ahead, cpi on wednesday and retail sales thursday in the federal reserve entered a quiet period over the weekend. rate hikes are on ice, can that

data change that story? tom: i think you have two staggered to the ecb. the answer for them is never for americans has a christine lagarde press conference been more important jonathan: ecb thursday. about 10 months from now, we will catch up with the european commissioner on their forecast, seemingly heading in the wrong direction. lisa: confirming stagflation that this is led by germany going into recession this year and that will slow growth at the same time inflation is sticky. that leaves the question for the ecb. how do you pair your singular mandate of inflation with a subtle dual mandate of trying to support a region that is not quite flat on its back but not in a great position? tom: we will talk about northern macedonia in a minute. jonathan: ok. tom: the foreign prime minister

is scheduled to be with us and that's one the most important conversations of the year. covid, nominal gdp from the beginning of the pandemic, the united states with all that stimulus, up 24% in total and the euro really stagflation, up only 8%. lisa: there is a question as to whether the u.s. or the euro area is doing the right thing. a better basis to come back for europe but does it leave the ecb in the same place the fed is right now? they are changing their town. it's unclear what the bigger risk is. the downside risk to the economy or the upside risk of inflation not going down. jonathan: that's the european dilemma. the boj had a pushback.

a real conversation about a real policy threat which is the shift away from negative interest rates by the end of this year. tom: the stronger yen and these are big moves but there was that whisper and it wraps around, i believe there was 47 articles on china. i lost count. i think the economists had six articles. it's just there, it's over there, it's distant but the pros tony pay attention. jonathan: you could have done a giants-cowboys or talked about the u.s. open but you could talk about italy. tom: what are they playing for? jonathan: they want to qualify for the euros next summer. tom: this is a national team.

jonathan: let's save this for the commercial break. tom: is this for the world cup? jonathan: equities are positive by 1/3 of 1%. new york sports right now giants-yankees. i know you're a jets-mets fan. lisa: not really. jonathan: that's usually how it goes, the long-suffering fans of jets. lisa: that's typically how it works. it's basically to treasuries and tech stocks. it's a big week of data and we are looking at apple setting to unveil the iphone 15 and smart watches at wanderlust. wednesday is uscp i with a focus on core cpi.

headline cpi is expected to remain steady or take up on the 9% increase in crude prices august but do we see that core continuing to come down which will give the fed a reprieve to pause and maybe stop hiking. the thursday ecb meeting and retail sales in the u.s. and the deadline for the uaw to potentially strike against the big three in detroit. the ecb is front and center. these new projections for the european commission are setting up the dilemma the ecb will have to face in a couple of days. jonathan: they've got to address that in the news conference later this week led by christine lagarde. marvin lowe joins us now. cpi later this week, retail sales as well and once we get to friday, what do we expect the data to look like? >> i think we will get a

continuation of the positive trends with the core data. pce raises the risk that it might be a little bit of an upside surprise. given where we were, it may not be moving in the right direction. the consumer remains strong said that it continues the challenge the fed has in terms of the strong consumer and making it harder to get towards the inflation goals. tom: i look at the idea of taking strategy or economics and having a convict -- a conviction or belief. i love your phrase " painfully neutral." there we are treading water. is there conviction to be in the market? are you convicted to a correction or is it a gloom bear market? >> we need a conviction when we approach our portfolio process. in terms of playing the market

with regard to the choppiness around the conviction, i think it makes it harder because we will have volatility in the market but it will create opportunities if we believe in that conviction. i think that the recession risk remains out there. the higher for a longer conversation becomes a harder landing particular when we look at some of the spending that comes into the market next year. there are opportunities around that. tom: i looked at the bloomberg financial conditions index and i went back to 2005 with 11 ratios folded in their and we are accommodative. are we painfully accommodative for central banks like you are painfully neutral? >> i think we've got the policy divergence that's starting to emerge globally. it's making these conversations

interesting in the macro space where it's showing the challenges that the different central banks have. it's hard to say that the u.s. is incredibly restrictive given where the economy is performing. you see the transmission mechanism making its way much more readily into the european economy and certainly the economies around the world. you have these diversionss which is the challenge we have going to the end -- you have these divergences which is the challenges we have going into the end of the year. lisa: the bank of japan over the weekend raising the possibility of understanding the need to abandon negative yields and move away from yield curve control as soon later this year. does that shift your understanding of where u.s. yields should be given there is a divergence but there is an interrelationship between global markets? >> that's significant. the view that japan is finally

in a position to make a longer-term decision with something that has been a decades long policy is significant within the global landscape, particularly when you look at it from the u.s. perspective and their participation in the treasury market. that's a conversation we started to have in early august which now comes to the forefront again if they are not as accommodative. lisa: morgan stanley said they have conviction yields will come down and to remain bullish on u.s. bonds. how much do you pushback against that? do you feel the stickiness in yields will be the new normal? >> i wouldn't be playing a significant decrease in yields at this point in time. i think a recession will drive that type of conversation. that painfully neutral type of view. where valuations are, i don't mind income. still think you can think about curve steepeners but you need to

do it more tactfully than just looking at one perspective. you have to look at how long this will take. simply owning treasuries in an environment where inflation is below that yield is a decent return. jonathan: are you saying pick up the front and? - end? >> i like the belly more. jonathan: the 5-7 year portion of the curve? >> yeah. jonathan: we had a lot of credit issuance last week and the bulk of that was short-term stuff. i wonder what kind of signal you take away from that issuance? >> it's opportunistic for sure. the fact that liquidity is in the market is ultimately a concern and corporations are taking advantage of that. i still think credit is a challenge. if the short end becomes a risk, certainly high yield is a greater risk associated with that.

it's getting past the choppiness might evolve over the next 2-3 years is something to be cognizant of. jonathan: thank you for the update from state street. the share of the high-grade corporate bond issuance with maturity of 10 plus years was just 10% in the last month to september 6. it's the lowest since 2010. so the companies coming to market are issuing short-term stuff. the belief is that perhaps this is a signal that even the corporations themselves see rates coming in a little lower perhaps in the future. tom: i'm not qualified for this. lisa: there are two ways to look at this. it could be where the demand is because people of more visibility in five than 10 years. the second thing is, these are companies not planning on paying the rates we are seeing now for a longer-term.

they are looking at short-term financing that they can refinance into much lower rates down the line and that's how i interpret it. tom: are the big companies like apple precooked -- precluded from gazillion dollar offerings? lisa: apple would not want to do that. they've got a gazillion dollars in cash. jonathan: a busy start to september issuance, the biggest on record. tom: i read the strategist john steinbeck this weekend and it's about the august ever discontent. can we get on with the gloom? we are in august and into september on this historic september 11. the bottom line is, the market went down to 3%, it's terrible. jonathan: i said no drama.

in mid august, it felt worse than that but i can better since then. tom: down 3%. jonathan: it's hard to gauge the market. coming up, the economy commissioner will join us on the latest forecast out of the euro zone. the latest forecast out of the eurozone is not fantastic. it is stagflation the risk where the reality for eurozone policymakers? that conversation in a moment. equities are posited by 0.3% on the s&p 500 and yields are up by two basis points on the 10 year. live from new york city this morning, good morning. ♪

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>> you are worried about stagflation in europe and the

u.k. where the threat is highest. it's a tough situation for the ecb. if they had a single mandate, they would probably hike. there is a 55 percent probability but it's that close. jonathan: it's a tight call and we are right down the middle. ahead of the ecb thursday, that was mohamed el-erian of bloomberg opinion and queens college cambridge. looking to your for the latest forecast from the commission thursday. the outlook for growth in the 20 nation economy, zero point 8% growth for 2023 compared with an early forecast for 1.1% growth. next year, similar, 1.3% is the forecast for next year. given what's happening with china at the moment with the slow down there, are they vulnerable to downside surprises even with setting the bar lower

in the euro zone? tom: this is the global feel we got from the imf at that meeting. we sat there stunned when the economists looked at it with a five-year combined global slowdown, not just about china. we are seeing some of that follow on in germany and the markdowns today. jonathan: i don't think we fully understood or appreciated the gravity of the slow down in china off the back of the reopening. was that spring of this year? that wasn't a feature of the overall conversation? lisa: germany is going into contraction and they are arguably the most exposed to china. the reopening was supposed to be incredible that we didn't get, what does the ecb do with this but what does the european commission due at a time when it's more expensive to borrow and spend, there has to be a policy shift in terms of where the mix of business is and where

the generation of income is going to come from. jonathan: they are between a rock and a hard place. let's go for the price action and have a sneak peek for the rest of this week because cpi wednesday with retail sales thursday. we are in a quiet period for fed speak. yields are higher in the bond market. equities are higher by 1/3 of 1%. i want to talk about the yen, dollar-yen is a move up about 0.75%. there is a conversation about backing away from negative interest rates in japan. when you have a credible policy threat, the market will pay attention. how credible is at the boj can

back away from negative interest rates by the end of this year if wage growth remains boy into? -- poignant? - bouyant. tom: you have a freely floating distant maturity japanese market with price down and yield up and then you have this contrived structure in closer which is called ycc. how and when does that break? jonathan: the differences between japan and their own problems in the u.s. and we have our problems in europe. lisa set this up -- the framework for thinking about europe at the moment, upside risk to inflation and downside risk to growth. that's a problem for any policymaker in any situation in any location. tom: how about someone steeped in domestic political affairs in

europe and italy including being prime minister. this is one of my most important conversations of the last 12 months. gentiloni at imf meetings was stunning. jonathan: let's start that conversation with paolo gentilo ni. it's been a number of months and we got the new forecast from the commission in front of is here. can we start with stagflation? is that the risk for you from your personal assessment or is that the reality? >> i think it's too soon to say that we are in a stagflation framework. what is clear i think is first that we avoid the recession which was not obvious only eight or nine months ago. please consider that the russian war against ukraine is for the

eu, and economic issue, not only a geopolitical event. we address these issues and avoided recession but indeed, growth is slow. we present the forecast this morning and the forecast is for growth of .8%. is this something of long duration where our estimate is we will have probably a rebound year? this is why i would not call it abruptly, stagflation. it's a moment of easing growth for sure. tom: christine lagarde in a speech in new york in april talked about a need for capital reform and market reform in europe. there is a primal scream of fiscal reform in europe which you have lived as former prime minister of italy. however urgent is reform given

the war and given the present monetary crisis within europe? >> i think it's urgent. we have course should take into account the fact that we are entering a time when we will have european elections. this is a challenge, a midterm challenge, not something we can solve tomorrow. what we have to address now, tomorrow is to find the right balance between supporting investments and addressing inflation. we have the privilege and opportunity to do so for the first time in the eu story, having behind us a strong tool.

it allows weaker physically member states to invest and spend. this is the main challenge ahead of us. i fully agree with christine lagarde that we need capital markets reform to regain our competitiveness in the global markets. lisa: you talked about the challenge between inflation and slowing growth, has the balance of those two risks shifted for you and become more growth in investment and roots of something stronger rather than being that much more aggressive in fighting inflation? >> inflation in the forecast we presented this morning, we have growth with easing momentum also

we are right that we are in this narrow path between these two things. anna think it's easy to say we won the challenge with inflation so let's concentrate on spending and investment. i think we are near the peak of interest rates and decisions will be taken by the ecb and not by the european commission on interest rates. at the same time, please preserve the good investments. can we do this in countries without the financial pockets? fortunately yes, because we have this euro bonds coming up. this is the opportunity we shouldn't miss in the coming months. jonathan: does that mean you see

more, potentially more easing and the ability to raise more money? can you come together and issue more debt? >> i see the existing programs. at least until 2026, we will disperse to member states more than 600 billion euros of common money. jonathan: we have to leave it there but it's great to see you earlier this year in d.c. and we hope to do it again early next year. the economic commissioner from the eu commission. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ itment research. introducing j.p. morgan personal advisors. hey david. connect with an advisor to create your personalized plan. let's find the right investments for your goals okay, great. j.p. morgan wealth management.

jonathan: in the equity market,, futures are lifted by three -- by 0.3%. going into a new iphone 15 launch a little bit later this week, critical for apple in the crosshairs of tension between the u.s. and china. tom: there were three articles published this weekend. just line up the what if's. jonathan: have they whispered

what to do 15 looks like? tom: they have a bunch of new features they are guessing on. there are airpods and watches. everybody will wear a black turtleneck. i've never once watched the show. jonathan: not once? i've never watched it in full. tom: i think it's sort of silly. people care. jonathan: europe has to stop messing around with the cables. your equity market is positive. welcome to the program. the two year bond is slightly higher. two basis points on the 10-year.

going into inflation data wednesday and retail sales thursday. the euro looks like this -- it's not the time to think about the stagflation framework. the euro is positive slightly stronger $1.07. the dollar weakened against the yuan and the yen. in japan, the boj is considering ending its negative rate policy. there is a basic hurdle which is wage growth. if wage growth is sticky into year and, then maybe we can do something a get -- about negative rates. tom: 3% inflation and that's a

new feeling for the people of japan. a lot of this is away from jackson hole and more about the millions of people in japan thinking that prices are going up. at has a whole new field. jonathan: treasury secretary janet yellen is confident the u.s. can achieve a soft landing. is this janet yellen the economist or the politician into 2024? lisa: difficult to say because she has been discussing the soft landing and she has been acting politically. the fact that she saying this doesn't necessarily give people that much confidence. i think there is more unease with the soft landing that was the defective understanding a couple of weeks ago and suddenly more people are pushing back. her saying that will make many more people question it. jonathan: let's finish on sport.

the u.s. open coming to a close and coco goff earning her first major title and djokovic earning his fourth. is the oldest man to win the u.s. open, 19-year-old coco goff, the youngest american to win a title since serena williams in 1999. tom: it was a glorious ending. i could hear the applause jonathan: from queens to manhattan. tom: there was cable tv issues in new york but people watching it and for hours on end yesterday, medvedev put up a big fight. jonathan: there is a moment when novak wavered in the second set but he found some energy from somewhere. you mention maybe the blackout of cable or spectrum, has that been sorted out for tonight? tom: bills-jets, that's spectrum and a lot of people don't have it. lisa: they said they know there

are some changes so you get fubo. jonathan: that's from spectrum? lisa: yes. tom: i got the same email. i have the rabbit ears. i've got to get the rabbit ears straightened out. jonathan: i did the same thing as a kid. tom: bills-jets tonight? jonathan: yes. tom: a discussion on the american economy in a reset into autumn. we go to the chief economist. i look at the summary of your

note and the arch question not being asked now is with china challenges, do they put a disinflationary or outright this -- deflationary impulse on global inflation? can we see a china that can impart disinflation on the rest of us? >> the important element is that we are facing u.s. economy that is showing signs of a slow down and we see the same in europe. the eu commission down. there forecast. if you look at china, the ongoing slowdown in economic activity that's broad-based across the manufacturing sector is going to have a negative effect on the region in asia but also the rest of the world. the effect may not be as large as some people make it to be. we know the exposure of the u.s. to china is relatively limited. but that will represent an additional dragon terms of

economic activity. whether it leads to greater disinflationary pressures, i'm not sure yet and the u.s. still imports a lot of its imports in u.s. dollars. lisa: there is china and the domestic effect and china and the influence on europe which is flirting with stagflation and its effect on the u.s. i want to question its effect on europe and whether we've overpriced the risk of some sort of declining chinese growth given peak pessimism we keep hearing about and how it feeds into the european economy? >> we have to be conscious that it is not just a sister go slow down matters, it's the structural slowdown in china that matters because the longer we have an environment where china is no longer growing it a nine or 10% growing at four or 3%, that becomes a greater drag on the global landscape. it affects the asian economies that are heavily dependent on imports into china but also

affects the rest of the global spectrum in terms of weaker economic activity we have an environment where global growth is slowing. it's not retrenching and we are not seeing a massive pullback in terms of economic activity but we see slower growth across the major economies around the world and china is not growing as fast and authorities are being more careful in terms of the amount of credit impulse in the economy and that becomes a greater drag over the rest of the world. jonathan: how does that stack up with the economy -- with the commodity market? >> we have an environment where we are seeing oil prices on the rise but we are seeing this global growth environment that is slowing. that friends is back to the issue of supply. we are in a world where we continue to see the supplies a key driver of economic activity. in this case, we're seeing saudi and russia talking about further cuts in terms of production and that drags the potential supply

and therefore puts upward pressure on oil prices and commodities. we see that in other sectors as well like the housing market in the u.s. jonathan: it's not just crude but it's iron or as well. the outlook for the year is defriend. -- a decent. can you get the same assessment? >> it depends on the demand for steel. if you see the effects of stronger construction around the world, it's still quite strong but where you have a supply shortfall and you are seeing that pole because there is insufficient supply, that feeds into the demand and perhaps put the upward pressure on the final demand which feeds into the commodities prices. this type of economy is difficult type of global economy to analyze. you have to be careful with using the old playbook of just a demand story. you have to look at all the

components from demand to supply. tom: on the october 6 jobs report, there was a report showing a decline. is there a validity to 90 day annualized mass showing this abrupt decline in job growth in america? >> that's the key feature. that's the element we have to focus on in this business in the key reason why we haven't seen a retrenchment in u.s. economic activities because the labor market has remained robust. we are seeing joe grow up just job growth has moderated. we are seeing lower hours worked. we are seeing lower diffusion of job growth in the labor market is cooling. tom: three-month annualized

shows we will get to a negative job growth is that sooner rather than later? >> at some point we will see that. you seen a pullback in hiring and a pullback in job openings. i think eventually we will see job losses in the coming months. it probably won't be as strong as a recession environment because employers are keen to retain the talent they spent so much time hiring, training and retaining but it won't be steady as she goes, only positive job growth numbers. lisa: will the fed start to cut rates by midyear next year? >> the conversation will have to pivot toward recalibration of monetary policy in the coming months but the fed will not discuss that now. they are focused on whether this is the terminal rate in terms of the fed funds rate and we see them being on pause the rest of the year. lisa: there is a lot of noise between now and then including strikes.

how much does that count into your projections if there are strikes and if there is the labor market writing back for a bigger proportion of the wages? >> we are in this environment we talk about supply issues. is not system on the capital side but is also on the labor market side. we have seen some positive developments in terms of supply. we've seen the labor force for tips -- participation rate go to an all-time high. we are seeing the labor market is gradually easing. we are seeing that tightness ease which is an encouraging sign but if we have greater strikes, we knows though can have it negative effect on employment and we sought in the august jobs report where the strikes of the screen actors guild as well as hotel strikes in southern california had a negative effect on jobs. this could be a weight on the economy and the labor market. jonathan: thank you, sir.

more disputes between the unions and ups escaped that and american airlines escape that but will we escape the potential strike at the big three? tom: the tradition is to strike against one company. you can go longer that way. lisa: the concern is that there is the economic impact. i believe it's a five billion dollars hit to the economy for a 10 day strike. there is the hit to president biden and what it does politically to him if they do strike and there is a hit to the economic trajectory and then there is the question of the wages being fair. if you started at $30,000 annually, is that a fair wage given the inflation and given

some of the fixed costs? tom: can the union get rid of the namestilantis? jonathan: the 10 days that were mentioned into recession, and economic consultancy had some stunning numbers and thanks to david wells for putting that story out. tina fordham coming up and she will explain what a lying dog faced pony soldier is. tom: she is listening to us right now. jonathan: she will explain that. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪

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>> he has his hands full right now. he has an overwhelming unemployment.

one of the major economic parts of the plan is not working at all right now. it's not working. i suspect he is trying to figure out what particular crisis he's having now. jonathan: the rambling news conference in vietnam with the problems facing china. we covered just about everything in a most bizarre way. some kind of aide needed to cut in and and the news conference and he tried to reengage with the microphone. tom: for those that have not gone through this, the good morning, vietnam part was uncomfortable. barry levinson made that movie with robin williams. he wrote for carol burnett and did a bunch of highly regarded

movies captured the 60's. part of that was a profound tension in the movie of a war. i was shocked to see the president in hanoi jonathan: making jokes about a jacket tom: or just stumbling over it. jonathan: it was odd. for most people, they agree it was an odd moment. tom: there we are with the president on his way home i believe through alaska and will arrive here at some point on september 11. joining us now is tina fordham with fordham global foresight. we could do a three hour conversation with you right now. the world is so topsy-turvy, it is a shock. are we at a point of instability work can diplomacy and dialogue lead us to a stable outcome?

>> it might surprise you to hear me say it but i actually think the g20 meeting, for all of its interesting quirks and shifts, highlights how in a topsy-turvy world, most leaders with the notable exception of the chinese resident who declined to attend, need these gatherings. they are important. on the one hand, they are an opportunity for what i call geopolitical hedging, chance to opportunistically take sides or take part in certain aspects of agreements like the india's/middle east transport quarter which is interesting and extending a hand to the african union. we use to not look at these kinds of international talking

type of gatherings at all for their impact on global markets and now they are a little bit of a crystal ball i think or maybe something more substantial. tom: i look at the more substantial position where we are. what should be the approach of america with five balls in the air. how do we prosecute a foreign policy particularly with china? >> there is the old saying about watching your enemy and waiting until he makes a mistake. china and the united states are not enemies. now we are something in between but i believe presidentxi's snub to india as it seems in not attending the g20 was a strategic goal for china. that coincided and i was in asia last week talking to investors in hong kong, with this flurry

of peak china stories and a real decline in investor sentiment around china. the markets always run faster than global policy and i think the nonappearance at the g20 by president xi is a perfect illustration of that. he really should have been there kind of bowstring china's commitment to international negotiations. lisa: in his absence, president biden said the chinese economic crisis made an invasion of taiwan less likely. do you think that was helpful, in the playbook of his strategists are that was something more off-the-cuff? >> without seeing into the president's mind and knowing something about his form, joe biden tends to call it as he sees it. if that's off-the-cuff, and that is how he sees it.

the chinese economic crisis, peak china, part of that sentiment. biden is taking a pretty conventional wisdom view and saying if they are having economic difficulties with country garden and the property bubble and other considerations, the failure to launch of post-covid boom that was expected, they are less likely to invade. history tells us that sometimes a decline can lead to more opportunity abroad. i think we should take biden's comments with a grain of salt. more important in terms of u.s. signaling our visits from people like gina raimondo and janet yellen. lisa: there is also the other side of this where china was protesting the u.s. hosting the

2026g20. what did you make of all the meetings with the focus on vietnam and the focus on india? how much is geared toward trying to shore up allies but trying to shore up new manufacturing sites in a material way? >> that's exactly what it was about. the u.s. is pushing on an open door in terms of the regional appetite in asia for stronger partnerships. president trump withdrew the u.s. from the transpacific partnership agreements. you could interpret these kinds of deals and the elevation of vietnam to a stronger status as a trading partner is making up for that. public opinion data is always made clear that china's neighbors fear both china and japan. now they fear china a bit more. the u.s. is in a strong position

to develop these kinds of relationships. i think india gets a lot of points for the way it handled things, things like the communiqué where analyst were concerned in general is highlighted, that was all about making sure that president mo -- prime minister modi of india didn't end up being the first leader of a g20 summit that didn't end up producing a communiqué. very interesting signaling going on as we rebalance the global system. jonathan: the president will go to alaska today and will not be in new york city or in virginia or at the events in pennsylvania to mark the 22nd anniversary of the attack on 9/11. what are your thoughts on the appropriate way for a president to mark an event like this one? >> i think it will be lost on

people. like a lot of the audience and in the studio, i was in new york on 9/11. it's a solemn and somber occasion, a milestone in american history that really did change the course of the u.s. policy. frankly, it's surprising i think that the president is not there. maybe it reflects a desire to move on but i think it's a little too early to move on. thank you for those comments. tom: do the math, 22 years and i believe the two events of my life were times stood still was the assassination of president kennedy and 911.

1941 plus 22 guess you to 1963. from pearl harbor to jfk and now we are 22 years on from 2011 -- from 2001. jonathan: how do you transition to marking this occasion in a different way, the absence of the president on a day like today to the different locations we expect him to be. tom: this is not the first time a president has not attended one of the three sites in pennsylvania in manhattan or at the pentagon. dr. biden will be at the pentagon today i believe but is not the first time. there has been time where the presence have been on the lawn or other events, bush and obama. nevertheless, he is on a business trip and he is on the way back and he will meet with 1001st responders in anchorage, alaska. jonathan: there will be a series

of moments of silence this morning and we will take all of them right here at bloomberg. on tv and radio on the anniversary of the september 11 attacks. ♪

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>> we think there is more downside risk over the next few months. >> when the yields move, they will move down and a lot. >> it's not whether things are declining or whether they are declining fast enough. >> positioning is changing you seen that inflection in the options market. >> the bottom one is the fed wants to slow things down, don't fight the fed. >> this is bloomberg surveillance. jonathan: live from new york

city this morning, good morning, good morning for our audience worldwide, this is bloomberg surveillance on tv and radio. your equity market on the s&p 500 is nicely posited by 0.4% following a week of losses and pushing ahead to retail sales thursday, cpi wednesday in the main event is the federal reserve a week away. tom: i think this has not been set enough. there is a fed meeting after the ecb meeting which might have some import but it's a dead meeting. you have to get to the fed meeting with data in front of you but are all eyes on november? i think so. jonathan: the hawks on the committee are not screaming hike in november. some of them think the risk still exists. the fed wants to be patient now and wait to see if there is

further evidence of a re-acceleration of this economy and leads to a reacceleration of inflation. there are so many contradictions at the moment. more than there were 12 months ago. things are a little bit different. tom: mohamed el-erian talks about the last mile but we've been talking about this for two years. some have used the phrase super restrictive and now we have to go the last mile and there are three narratives or five narratives? jonathan: sarah house of wells fargo talked about how hard that last mile would be. there was loads of chart showing delinquencies climbing and bank lending is down.

they say this economy will slow down and that's the view of some people. jonathan: there is conflicting data and they spoke to one economist who said when you get conflicting data, it's typical when there is an economic shift, things get messy. you wait and you average. the data still matters, it's not wrong. it's just that it's not going to reflect things in a smooth line to make sense to wait. where are the balance of risks? jonathan: we know the how they have shifted. 12 months ago, the biggest risk was doing too little versus between -- versus doing too much. i'm not sure what the answer is anymore. things are more balanced now than they were back then. tom: to have the former italian prime minister on this morning was a great honor. he did not mince any words. it's a slow down in europe.

jonathan: i think you've been on top of this for the best part of 12 months. is your just returning to what basically just low trend growth? tom: the german economist came up with the term euro-sclerosis. monetary theory feeds into europe dictating what cord tim cook can plug into the iphone? euro-sclerosis is more about regulation in a business environment. maybe it's there and maybe it's not. jonathan: they want to make the rules. tom: it's the transatlantic divide. jonathan: let's turn to the equity market with s&p 500 futures up 0.5%.

tons to talk about in foreign exchange. tom: the 10 year real yield was published moments ago, 1.95% back towards a two level. you see foreign exchange with the yen stronger. jonathan: dollar-yen $1.46. lisa: the question is what will happen with the bank of japan. you mentioned the apple wants of the iphone 15. i'm curious to see how much this offset the negativity we have seen with china and growth there and whether they can offset that with wanderlust. wednesday, uscp i coming up. people will not talk about the headline figure which is kept up by the oil and gas prices but the core cpi, what do you get in terms of how quickly it is

disinflation? tom: this is a killer chart pre-pandemic. are we back about one third? lisa: yes, but is the last mile and were talking about some other components turning around like housing and other areas like health care coasts -- are coming out with people expecting consumers to stop spending because maybe savings are running out. the ecb meeting is in the forefront of everybody's mind given the dilemma that was laid out by the european commission today. what we are seeing now is an increasing ability to pause and increasing ability to say we can have patience and take a look at the data and we will not hurt things and encourage inflation further. with christine lagarde, it's a different conversation. jonathan: much less comfortable

for the ecb. the chief global market strategist joins us now from invesco. listening to talk about union disputes and the detroit big three, can you tell me if that's a headline risk right now or a symptom of a broader, stronger hot labor market in america that will lead to the high cost for some of these companies? >> i would argue it's more likely the latter. that's because we saw the walmart announcement last week about lower wages for new employees. because the labor market has eased a bit, it's tight but not as tight, what we are seeing with the uaw is probably more of a rearview mirror issue than what we have ahead of us in terms of what i expect to be moderating wage growth. tom: you have a shingle from cornell which is possibly the number one labor economics

program in the country. this is not walter reuther's uaw. explain your view of your study at cornell on the atomization of the american labor economy. is it legit or can there be a renewed unitization -- re unionization? ->> we've seen moves and industries toward more union nation but that is a function of the tightness of the labor market. the labor market is getting less tight. i would anticipate we see less of this activity in the future. this was a very unique environment we lived over the past few years and it's really have open the door to the potential for unionization but going forward, it will be specific industries where we see this happening. lisa: the idea that you are saying this will not be what we will see going forward. what does that mean in terms of

the last bit of inflation we see and how quickly we can get back to 2% and how much conviction you can go back into longer-term bonds>? >> the last mile is going to be hard but i believe we are very much on that disinflation or trend. not every data point is going to support that narrative, but that will be the case. i will point to something that came out last week -- the chicago fed economist put out a note utilizing their model. they anticipate we will get close to the fed target by the middle of 2024 without a recession. my opinion will be it will be a bumpy lending but not a recession. lisa: there are two schools of thought on this. when we go back to something more normal, they save bonds

will maybe have lower yields the now but not significantly. morgan stanley is the loan bull. they still have conviction to buy now. are you in agreement with that? >> i would argue it's so hard to market time. it makes sense to increase exposure now even if one is not sure that we have actually hit the peak. this is the real time to start allocations. tom: i think this is important and timely. the vector of three-month annualized nonfarm payrolls is moving in a strident direction. can you frame a negative nonfarm payroll statistic? >> i don't have a lot of negative things to say now about the state of the labor market. we have labor force participation increasing.

we have rage group -- wage growth moderating. those are the two most important data points within the jobs report in my opinion. if we look at jolts and we see the number of job openings, they've gone down significantly and pointing in the right direction to maybe not a soft landing or a bumpy lending but one in which we see a moderation in wage growth, one in which we see a moderation in inflation going forward. jonathan: there is a question about the detroit three. deglobalization, doesn't it give the workers in detroit more leverage over their employers? >> one could argue that deglobalization has an impact and serves to boost inflation in a number of ways including potentially this way. the counterbalance is technological innovation. could we get to an environment

in which we are a bit above the fed's target in terms of inflation for the medium term? yes, but i think the fed is willing to tolerate that because we also saw inflation below target for some time. jonathan: we've heard that a few times, higher inflation story from the federal reserve. that was not the conversation in 2022. the conversation sounds like to point something. tom: there was a brilliant conversation that modeled out 4% , the new level. jonathan: if you're just tuning in, welcome to the program. equity futures on the s&p 500 are positive. the consensus appears to be

talking about a u.s. load and as a foregone conclusion. tom: this is humility and i think you heard that. there are 14 narratives. how many partridges is goldilocks -- how many partridge - porridges are goldilocks testing right now? al kaline chewed up sandy koufax. jonathan: we are talking about baseball? koufax was the dodgers? i appreciate that. in about 45 minutes, we will talk about the economic data this week with cpi coming out

and retail sales thursday. it's the quiet time for the federal reserve so no fed speak whatsoever going into the decision about a week from now. in the middle of that, never mind uaw, the situation with apple after the week they had last week, the pressure to get some traction with this iphone 15. lisa: especially as people think it will change the game. jonathan ferro who doesn't want to upgrade his phone might actually want to upgrade his phone. jonathan: the proud boys are very upset about the conspiracy theories. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ is it possible to fall in love with your home... ...before you even step inside? ♪ discover the magnolia home james hardie collection. available now in siding colors, styles and textures. curated by joanna gaines. >> i don't think this is going to cause china to fade.

it will be the opposite effect. they won't have the same capacity as before but we are not looking to hurt china. we are all better off if china does well. jonathan: the president of the united states in vietnam addressing the issues of china. live from new york this morning, equities now on the s&p 500 are positive by 0.4 percent. the 10 year is 429 60 in the euro is a bit stronger. tom: it's going to be interesting to see that we have a president traveling back from the pacific rim at about 4:00 p.m. this afternoon. he will honor and remember september 11 in alaska. on his way home. before that is a modest note. this will be early this morning

and it happened maybe an hour ago. the president visited the john sidney mccain iii memorial in hanoi. this is part of our youth and childhood of these prisoners of war in hanoi which makes even odder the clumsiness we saw yesterday. jonathan: what did you make of the news conference yesterday? tom: i have to be careful here. i just think it's been a president for months and months who has been managed in his press conferences. he clearly showed up in vietnam as anyone would tired from a strenuous g20 meeting. jonathan: he talked about that himself in the news conference. the way it was cut off was pretty strange.

they cut into the president of the united states. we would not even do that is journalists. it's kind of bizarre midsentence toward the end to kill the mike's. tom: ann-marie hordern has perspective. how is the president doing? annmarie: if you look at the press conference, their concerns because he was rambling. as far as being cut off, it almost felt like the oscars. you actually heard music over the president. that usually the queue to stop talking even the reporters were asking questions that he wanted to answer. is prep -- his press conferences are managed. no one is asking you to give your question of what you will say but they have a list of people they will give questions to see you want to make sure there is a variety of journals in the room that have different perspectives. what was interesting about that

press conference was the rambling. we weren't sure where the president was going in his answers. he brought up one point, a john wayne film and wanted to get a quote in the film. he talked about a lying dog faced pony soldier and he said many individuals are that way. when it comes to global warming. it was confusing for people to follow. jonathan: did you get any substance out of the news conference yesterday? annmarie: he is at least sticking to the time when it comes to china which is that he wants it squared away. he wants china to follow the rules. he says we are not trying to detain or decouple china. there are a lot of questions about china this week. he said they just need to follow

the international rules of the road. jonathan: christine lagarde said she's ready to go and that's new? annmarie: she said that to the press. she was asked if you prepared -- if you were prepared for the job and she said yes. the interviewer said explain you think you are prepared. she said there is nothing to prepare for because joe biden is not going anywhere. it did take people by surprise have weekly she said yes and stopped lisa: at this point, people are looking at the polls in the concern about these issues and this rambling not to mention what we are seeing on both sides of the aisle and other people who have been in service for a long time and it raises questions about their health. at what point do we start to hear a sense of who could

potentially run instead of president biden if this starts to get critical mass? annmarie: at the moment, the democrats are rallying around biden even though there are whispers behind closed doors about his age. he will be 83 next november. no one is doubting he will run at this moment. you see the push from the campaign and they are releasing millions of dollars in advertisements about this president. if he was going to step aside and there would potentially be a new candidate, i think you have to look to the executives of these states. you have gavin newsom california who impress people recently. he sat for a long range interview with sean hannity on fox news and seemed to control that narrative. he is doing a bit of a national tour and there is someone like jb pritzker, the governor of illinois who could write the checks.

he is the heir of the high it. - hyatt and then there is the vice president. at this moment, there is not a rallying support for her to take over. lisa: as he goes to alaska, does president biden leave the g20 emboldened or weakened given some of the focus is less around the substance of these events and some other issues like the speech? annmarie: optics will be about the speech and also about the communiqué. regarding the war in ukraine, the communiqué has urged ukrainians. they don't mesh in the russian invasion of ukraine but they talk about making sure no country goes after another countries territory. that's a big walk back. what you will hear from u.s. officials is this is -- these are just words.

what's happening is china left a huge hole by not attending the g20. india had a successful g20 in the united states and other countries were able to coalesce around the global south, india, south africa and brazil. they want to make sure these countries are on board. tom: let me bring back domestic. michael bloomberg wrote an essay on immigration this weekend. 1976, new york city, new york city drop dead. i remember it clear as a bell at a time. where is the dynamic in euro-washington about any given cities including new york city and the migrant crisis we have? what will the administration do? annmarie: what you see is a democratic mayor and governor come out and really put the feed to the fire of a democratic administration for more help when it comes to the migrants in

these cities. this will be a huge fight starting this week as there is a potential government shut down september 30. the administration is asking for more ukraine eight and speaker mccarthy will have a rough time getting that through on a continuing resolution. he potentially wants to siphon that often put that with more funding toward the border. there will also be controversial assignment provisions. this will be a huge debate this week when it comes to federal funding on the border but also potentially -- tom: do we have time for debates? i don't mean us. the whole debate, the urgency here, things are changing and it's getting colder. migrants in new york or chicago, the party and had a wonderful essay on chicago. it's not just new york. jonathan: we should all be

deeply uncomfortable using people to make political points. the point that the governor of texas has made is this is an incredibly effective. it has proven to a certain degree that this has always been a not in my back yard phenomenon that new york has not had to experience in the same way and now it does. they've got a different view on it. annmarie: they are trying to set a place where they can put these individuals and they don't have the infrastructure or funding they need to adequately provide. then it becomes a big humanitarian crisis. jonathan: equity futures in the s&p 500 are just about positive by 0.4%. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ hey corporate types. would you stop calling each other rock stars? you're a rock star. you are a rock star. no more calling co-workers rock stars. look, it's great that you use workday to transform your business. but it still doesn't make you a rock star. so unless you work with an actual rock star.

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jonathan: stocks near session highs in the s&p 500. there is a lift on the board, the nasdaq as well. s&p positive by 0.4%. the russell by 0.56%. following a week of losses on the s&p 500 for the first full week of september. your curve looks like this this morning. two-year at 4.98. 10-year yield pushing higher,

getting closer to 4.30. yields higher by four basis points on the 30-year. going into cpi on a wednesday, retail sales on a thursday. euro sales stronger, positive by 0.2% against the dollar. 1.0726. our conversation with the commissioner on the economy, on the growth forecast, lack thereof. cuts to growth forecast out of europe. tom: we will explain this for people on radio. a lot of economics are going back to where were we in 2019? which seems to be a valid idea. the u.s. from the end of 2019 24%, all that stimulus, life is great.

in europe, running a 2% rate, up 8% over the same period. that is the euro-u.s. difference. jonathan: are we going back to that low trend growth? throw in germany, too. the fact that we have had recession basically, stagnating growth, and still have an inflation problem. it is not the experience of europe over the past year. tom: are they having the three-month annualized thing that mike mckee mentioned? the basic idea is disinflation is in place and america. can christine lagarde say that disinflation is in place in europe? i'm not sure when i look at brent, $90. jonathan: president biden confirming his meeting with the

chinese premier at the g summit over the weekend, marking the highest level meeting between the u.s. and china in 10 months. also leaders backing plans for new trade between the u.s., the middle east, and india. tom: it was a g 18, some were saying in just. the part of diplomacy, you have to show up. the president showed up. given all the different challenges that are out there. i sort of think it was off of the radar. some saying it was a bigger deal than i thought, but i could be wrong. tom: we will not be talking about it tomorrow, is what you are saying. softbank, $47 to $51 per share.

there is another ipo in the mix for this week. instacart sending us price range, $26 to $28 per share, looking for the nasdaq ticker cart. lisa: the valuation that is being talked about out there is substantially lower than where it was value just months ago. in the case of instacart, it's a significant decline. it is being valued at a quarter of what it was two years ago, $34 billion. are these specific to the names or is there something broader about a reevaluation of private companies that has yet to percolate into the system, solidifying those losses, that new valuation? tom: wegmans, costco, foodway.

have any of you done instacart? jonathan: whole foods back in the day before amazon bought it. pre-amazon acquisition, you did it through instacart. it was fairly decent, the same as all the rest. they sent out couriers. lisa: do you like other people picking out your fruits and vegetables? jonathan: meats, as well? lisa: to me, they can pick the meats better than the fruits and vegetables. it is not the same fruit knowledge that i would like deployed with my selection. jonathan: how much are you paying for high-level fruit knowledge? tom: are they big enough to go public? they are going public so somebody can cash out? jonathan: it looks like that. tom: you are more knowledgeable on arm than we are.

softbank is coming in. am i right that they are coming in with big companies helping out, protecting each other? tom: arm is super unique, lisa talk to leadership every quarter. this company has been around for a long time, absorbed by softbank. they are absorbing it up and sending it back out. i don't think you can compare that to a startup going public. not the same thing. tom: you have your 8000 shares. jonathan: nicely allocated. cannot wait. i want to finish on this one. tragedy striking in morocco after the deadliest earthquake the country suffered in six decades. the race is on to find survivors with more than 2000 people potentially believed to be dead. the 6.8 magnitude earthquake

struck late friday. i just don't see how the imf together in a couple of months time and heads over here. tom: i don't have anything to say about what the imf should or can do, but i know that they will be remitted by this -- riveted by this as a humanitarian emergency. these are not all the images we have of morocco. this is agrarian, mountainous, cold nights, very poor. this is 60 miles southwest of marrakech. tom: you would like that is where the imf would like the attention to be, the rebuilding, not on the economic get together, having a look at the rest of the world, forecast and

all of that. not the time or place. tom: i was immediately in contact with people. as you can well understand, it is under discussion how they can assist with the world bank, red cross. ongoing tragedy. 2002 me seems like a low number. right now, we go to the markets. futures up 20. so bonomo joppa -- subadrah rajappa joins us now. what is the narrative on what weights will do? >> for the most part, wait and see ahead of fomc next week. broadly speaking if you look at the price action we have seen in the bond market, the fed will

pause at the september meeting. whether they hike again in november is yet to be seen. the data that we get this week will guide the jobs for next week as well as set the trend for what potentially the fed could be doing in november and beyond. range bound markets for the next week or so. we got a ton of corporate supply pushing yields higher. we could see more of that momentum. really you will need more data to direct the markets from here on. lisa: what is the implication from the latest miss in japan about potentially ending yield curve control, having a better sense of what that would be appropriate by the end of the year? does that change your outlook for u.s. yields given the incredible buyer base we see coming from japan? subadra: absolutely. we have seen a decent change in

the momentum of yields in august. granted a quiet month, but we have the fish downgrades, putting pressure on yields, not only in the u.s. but globally. we have to see how things play out. at the same time a are adjusting policy, you have a broader slow down. slow down in europe. in the fourth quarter of this year we will probably see the u.s. economy will also come under pressure as the consumer starts to pull back a little bit. consumers have been extraordinarily resilient about student loans moratorium expiring, delinquencies starting to go up, i think you'll start to see more pressure on the consumer in the fourth quarter of this year. that is something that could probably keep a lid on rising yields in the u.s. lisa: does that give you more conviction to buy in the

government bond space, less conviction to buy on the credit side of things, which could be more affected by the weakness? subadra: that seems to be where you want to put your money and if you think there will be a slowdown in growth in 2024. we have always had a recession in 2024, perhaps moving away from recession in the early part of the year to the mid part of the year. but recession is still very much in the cards. if that were to play out, you would start to see a moderation in yields on the back end. tom: which maturity full faith and credit right now is most attractive for price up, yield down? subadra: the front end is definitely attractive. the market, in my view, is fully priced and for hire for longer from the fed. we are pressing for the fed on

hold until the second half of next year. only modest cuts after that point on. in this context, it probably feels the place you want to be is the very front end. if the economy starts to slow down and the fed starts to pivot toward easier policy, he will see the front and start to rally. tom: good to catch up and get the view of socgen. the two-year very close at 4.98. the 10-year at 4.30. yields higher across the curve from the 10-year out. shifting higher by four basis points on the 30-year this morning. tom: it will be interesting if that narrows and comes in. jonathan: the s&p positive by 0.4%. about one hour from now, former

fed economist will join us at 8:30. tom: looks like a genius looking back eight months. basically her message was, everyone calm down. claudia will be wrong in 2025, we have that on the calendar, but right now, everyone calm down. jonathan: apple extending an agreement to get modem semiconductors from qualcomm for three more years. i know this is something you are focused on. apple in focus for the iphone 15. qualcomm surging on the back of this news. we will catch up with mandeep singh. tom: we have to get the photo of me talking to matt miller on the sidewalk outside the apple store

years ago. apple was going to die, out of business. finished. i cannot remember why. are we doing it again right now? it was gloomy this weekend. lisa: the significance of this particular story, significance about apple creating their own chips, and what that would do with qualcomm. it seems that is not quite ready yet. qualcomm seeing a lifeline. jonathan: stock taking that and running with it. mandeep singh of bloomberg intelligence and all of news, next. ♪

>> we think there is more downside risk over the next few months.

underweight technology for a number of reasons, not least because the u.s. tech sector is trading above equities. jonathan: equity strategist at berenberg. two names to look at this morning, apple, qualcomm. apple extending an agreement to get modem semiconductors from qualcomm for three more years. it will cover smartphone launches in 24, 25, and 26. there was the potential of the iphone coming out this week would be one of the last two rely on the qualcomm modem chip. that stock is up in the premarket by 8%. apple a little bit higher after a tough week last week. going into that lawn for the iphone 15. tom: what do i know about modems? jonathan: more than me. tom: all i know is yet to put in a different code.

jonathan: you are more up to speed than that. tom: i always go to the chips. joining us now, mandeep singh, senior apple analyst for bloomberg intelligence. also surveillance tennis expert. let's digress from the script here. that was one hell of a final men's match. mandeep: the second set was epic. jonathan: it felt like he was faltering. i have seen this a million times with novak. tom: you think he is faking? jonathan: he was looking old and then got young again in the second set. mandeep: the fatigue didn't last long. a lot will argue, but he is the goat when it comes to the slams, probably nobody will beat his record.

jonathan: how is this week going to go for apple? getting away from the modem news. mandeep: i think with apple, you have to think about the features they will introduce in the phone . it is not guaranteed that we will have a big upgrade cycle. that is why these events are so important. time and again we have seen the upgrades come when they introduce a new feature, whether it is the camera or something in the phone, an element that will get people to upgrade their phones. jonathan: they have been able to dress up for unit growth with higher average selling prices. if there is not a big upgrade, where do they get the asp from? mandeep: that is never a good strategy, making people pay more, because you reduce your installed days. right now they're installed days is not growing. to take market share, they need

that new phone that everyone is excited about. they are one company that has not talked about generative ai, language models. you would think the inferencing has to be done on these phones. they have not mentioned that on any of their calls. lisa: what is at stake in terms of the new creations, the new iphone? what could they move the needle went? is it that much better of a camera? we have done that before. faster charging device? what could it be? mandeep: they have shown their vision pro demo, and spatial computing is the next area where it will grow. i am not betting on the metaverse but there's an argument to be made, similar to wearables, you can get a pop from the vision pro devices. how it really expands the apple ecosystem. in the end, it's about the

vertical integration they been able to do the past few decades. lisa: instead of having a laptop or computer, we are going to put on goggles, be able to walk around and be in a computer? mandeep: you could argue that is the future but that is not imminent, not near-term. it's about what they can do in terms of expanding the scope of your iphone to tailor it to the next leg of computing. that is where i bring in the generative ai. qualcomm is arguing that you will do that on your phone, not the cloud. apple has not mentioned around it, so this event is important around that. tom: is there any discussion about what happens after cook? is there a succession plan in an envelope in a desk, how long does he keep this going? mandeep: right now they are at a crossroads where supply diversification is paramount.

until they fix this, diversifying their supply chain, tim cook is the guy to facilitate that. jonathan: is this buzz about huawei's new phone legit? mandeep: the chinese government has thrown a lot of money into building semiconductor manufacturing, but for them to get all of the pieces right, chips, packaging, assembly, it's very hard. we know semiconductor manufacturing is very iterative. i have my doubts in terms of the phone being as good as the iphone. jonathan: let's say it is three years back, the iphone 12, whatever. are we missing the mood of the country shifting away from apple? if there is a mood shift, does it matter if it is the iphone 12?

mandeep: my what consumers want a phone that is equivalent to the iphone 12? as a chinese consumer, you want your hands on the latest gadgets. jonathan: if i wanted a better phone, wouldn't i get a samsung? there is a reason that i buy this. the samsung ghibli is a better phone, but i don't buy it. the reason i buy it beyond the technology that it has, i'm a part of the ecosystem, it is sticky, but there is also brand recognition associated with this even here in the u.s. i wonder if that has changed in china, whether that is the brand you want to carry. mandeep: i think you'll see a rush to upgrade especially from chinese consumers. in my opinion, everyone gravitates toward the perceived attractiveness of apple. it is because of the ecosystem.

everything is vertically integrated in the ecosystem. lisa: how does the ambassador of tim cook address some of the concerns expressed in share prices, by analysts in the launch, if he wants to maintain that kind of enthusiasm in china? while also may shifting and diversifying the risk? mandeep: they have to work with the chinese government. apple has done a pretty good job. no other mega tech company has 20% revenue exposure to that market. they have been able to work through the issues but from a china perspective they want that local company, huawei, to start making phones, so they are investing. tom: i saw this three or four times over the weekend. you know how we get christmas decorations out in november? meg with this photo on twitter.

pumpkins now? 50 days until halloween. will that make it, carved or uncarved? that is not going to make it. lisa: i am all with you in terms of early decorations. pumpkins, they grow in fall. they are harvesting pumpkins. sort of like celebrating fall. i can get the idea behind that. you can see the leaves starting to change outside the city. i can understand that. but i do agree, pulling out the easter bunny after christmas is sort of crazy. january 1. tom: it is like buying roses. you don't want to buy them their valentine's day, they are expensive. jonathan: the day after.

mandeep singh, thank you. that is a long story that we don't need to go into. keith lerner of truest advisory services joining us in a few minutes time. we have cpi and retail sales in america. the good news is the fed is not speaking. the company side of things, we have that debate between the uaw, big three negotiations ongoing, unveiling of the iphone 15. there is a lot going on. ecb decision. tom: we bus to lisa's chops about it but it is a toxic brew. there is a lot of toxic brew out there. jonathan: equity futures on the s&p pulling back from session highs. positive by 0.4%. yields higher by three basis

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>> we are in a brave new world. lots of shifting sands.

>> we are entering a very important period where there will probably be a handoff on the focus of inflation onto the real economy data. >> that bullish sentiment has waned. that has taken a tail wind the market. >> the fed come ecb are stepping harder and harder on the brakes. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with jonathan ferro, tom keene, and lisa abramovitz. tom: good morning, everyone. mr. ferro really diving into the 9:00 hour. dow futures up 38. vix is not giving me too much information. i will call it positioning monday here on september 11. we will see the president in lower manhattan a little while, remembering flight 11.

sort of get ready for the week monday. lisa: feels like a lack of conviction monday, people are waiting, nobody has a sense of where they want to go. it feels like a tipping point kind of moment, but filled with ennui. we don't know what we are waiting for. tom: i don't know what that means but it sounds good. it 10-year yield, 1.26%. i don't know what it is in europe, but it will be real for christine lagarde. lisa: brutal assessment from the european commission, spinning it differently, saying this is not really a stagflation type of profile going out. how does she support economic growth, which is not their mandate, while also dealing with cpi north of 5% in the region.

tom: cpi was like that in the early 1960's. course what we harken back to in the 1960's, there was a three-year period where i survived on hostess products. twinkies. they had this pie thing. we lived for this stuff. we need to stop the show now. basically great jelly and peanut butter combined with twinkies. lisa: people are imagining that we have twinkies for breakfast. the actual news is that hostess brands will be acquired by jm's for $34.25 a share. tom: you nailed that.

i said you have to be careful, you cannot show the pink snowballs. i heartily have those -- heartily -- hardly had those. i am erik from it healthy, like every other kid. i think i went from twinkies to genesee cream ale. lisa: there is a bigger respect to capital markets being open, these acquisitions. scale, there is consolidation, but also the fact that there is the instacart ipo there, especially after last week's corporate debt. the market is open, even if it is slow. it doesn't feel like anything has broken from yields, from where they are, which raises the

question why should they go down? tom: we didn't mention this yet, mo get to it -- will get to it quickly before we get to keith lerner. we have to hire people in asia. ubs merging with credit suisse, maybe not. lisa: we have seen this with other big banks on wall street. morgan stanley cut back some of their staff in china as well. are they even going to be allowed to do business in the same way in mainland china? does hong kong have the same international position given its interconnectedness with beijing? it is a question that you will not get an honest answer when you hear from the big banks. tom: 9% profit decline. i would link it to goldman sachs, it is the time of year,

when people are rightsizing. futures up 19. nasdaq up .7%. i am focused on yen, stronger on the back of some bank of japan chat. lisa: talking about whether they can move away from negative rates. also generally looking at dollar strength across the board that has faded. dollar weakness with the euro stronger against the dollar, despite what we heard from the european commission, confirming recession in germany's gdp, leading to this subpar growth perspective in that region. tom: gina martin adams later in the hour, claudia sahm. right now we have keith lerner from truist. he is truly legit on the

technical aspects across equities, bonds, commodities, currencies. what do the charts to you? it seems like a jumble. is the technical structure of the markets plural, is it a jumble? >> great to be with you this morning. i think jumble is a good word. as you look at the overall equity market, this is not the time to be on offense or defense, but patient for opportunities to do so. the s&p, you are in a range, digesting the big year-to-date gains. 4600 on the upside, 4300 on the downside. not a lot of momentum. as we head into this month, there seems to be a lack of upside catalyst, as well. we are kind of just marking time right now.

lisa: given the fact that it doesn't feel like there is anything screaming out, what does that mean? what do these muddles do, serving as turning points? keith: and they can mean a little. something that we are looking for during this churn, put our credit markets doing right now? sector leadership is really mixed as well. i don't know if it is a bad omen, per se. you are waiting to see what comes out of this. looking back at the equity markets, you are starting to see energy perk up. we know the apple lodge this week has been more of a market performer. you are seeing a little bit better activity from the offensive -- defensives but not a trend change. it is waiting for the market to basically speak, and see where

that leadership will come from. lisa: what is more important this week? we get a slew of economic data, we also hear from the ecb. is that more important or is the iphone 15 and the potential for a uaw strike more significant for you? keith: we have a lot to pick from this morning, don't we? i would say more on the monetary policy. bill is up 37%. -- apple is up 37%. technology is up. i think that uaw will put focus back on inflation. then again we had walmart last week saying that things are softening on that side. it is really about ecb policy, how it relates to fed policy, and a dollar having some strength lately. tom: i am hearing a lot of macro analysis. we will do this with claudia

sahm in a minute. how do you identify a second leg of able market? keith: we had the big move up, still in an uptrend, not seeing a lot of distribution. you want to see urgency in buying out of this range, the br eadth of stocks move out of this range. just showing real demand coming in, urgency to buy stocks. then you want sector leadership to be more broad-based. that is what we are waiting for to get more bullish on the upside. conversely, if you see the defensives go up, credit spreads widen, that would be a negative. we are strongly neutral against stocks, bonds, and cash right now. today, we are just taking with the market is giving us. lisa: what does strongly neutral mean?

such a fantastic way to describe the mb was of this moment. keith: as a strategist, everyone wants to say this is the time to buy or sell, but when you say you are neutral, people think you don't have an opinion. we are strongly in line with sticking with higher quality, not taking those big bets across asset classes. where we have been taking bigger bets, overweight the u.s., emerging markets, staying up in quality in fixed income. we don't think you are being compensated today for the risks you are seeing in the equity grade market. tom: thank you so much, keith. we are like three days into the -- what do you think about ms. wang? strongly neutral. lisa: i think that is really fun

to listen to, because he raises a good point. people think that means you don't have an opinion. it does, it just means there is not a lot of conviction to push you one way or the other. tom: we have had this titanic lift in rates, unusual, wrapped around the pandemic, but the heart of the matter is, we don't really know how to act at these points in the last mile. this is all new. we really don't know what to do. lisa: the reason why the fed and the ecb are waiting. if you are an investor trying to get ahead of things, do you basically say, we can't, so we are going to be in the middle? tom: s&p up half a percent. lisa: it's a good point in terms of when some of these higher rates, you talked about the higher surge in rates, when it

will become the norm, or it percolates in, and you don't have to say it will hit the market when? that is why it is interesting that we are seeing the potential instacart ipo, the hostess situation. tom: smuckers have been making money for years. instacart, to me, i don't know anything about it. but is instacart the kind of business that should be going public? are they profit-making, going to become a dow jones industrial member? lisa: they are being valued about a quarter of what they were just a couple years ago. again, is that because they have to capitalize, cash out while they can for their owners? or is this only going to get worse, not necessarily going to be as high valuation?

people are raising money despite the higher yields, valuations that are subpar compared to recent history. tom: it is september 11. we welcome all of you around the world. we will have a marimba rinse at 8:46. what is so important, it is not manhattan and the pentagon, shanksville, pennsylvania, but also the president returning home. he will be in anchorage, alaska today. lisa: not in new york or near the pentagon. it is amazing to think that it has been 22 years. still catastrophic and still very present in people's minds who were here. tom: it is september 11. thank you for joining bloomberg surveillance. ♪

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from the focus on inflation onto the real economy data. it will be a slow process, but i will repeat what i just said. yields probably go sideways for now, but when they make the next big move, it is unlikely to be up. tom: stephen major of hsbc. that is what bloomberg surveillance is about. looking for lower rates at hsbc. lisa, mr. earl davis at bmo capital markets going the other way, looking for longer. lisa: the gap between the bulls and the bears is getting further apart. what happened overnight is confirming the uncertainty here, talking about the bank of japan. possibly knowing by the end of the year whether or not to end negative rates. that changes the scenario in markets.

will it have a lasting effect on the u.s. market, treasuries? tom: you look at the zeitgeist, your eyes are glazed over looking at the computer screen. the set of uncertainties is extraordinary right now. i think china takes top billing, but these narratives that we have indicate, how do we get to november, january? where are we on the fourth of july next year? lisa: i keep on going back to diane swonk, saying she has the humility, i don't fully understand how all the different threads will come together in terms of painting the new economic narrative. tom: our thoughts to all of the national association o of business economics. an informed discussion with a

gentleman from brown brothers harriman. win thin, a good time to speak about the broader pacific rim. i'll be going to see an export of disinflation out of a troubled china to hanoi, burma, across the pacific to america? win: i think that is the process in place, and that's not a bad thing. central banks around the world are fighting inflation. a little bit of disinflation is not a bad thing. the bad news is that it is coming at a cost for china. we know the economy is slowing much more than desired. it is a double edge sword. with the markets still focused on inflation, a little bit of disinflation is good news. but we have a long way to go before we can sound the all clear. tom: i have a question that

people want to know. can you go round trip, do we see an out right devaluation, solution to a troubled beijing? win: they have been trying to resist that. if you look at the measures they have been doing, they are trying to prop up the yuan. they don't want it to fall out of bed. at the same time, there is not much they can do about it. as long as the bank of china is an easing mode, the fed is in tightening mode, the only direction for dollar-you want is higher. i think the valuation would be dangerous. chinese corporate's have a lot of dollar-denominated debt. all of a sudden that becomes more expensive to service. for now they hold off on valuations but lean against the

depreciation. it is like trying to fight the tide. lisa: as we look at the stores percolating, different narratives coming out of the woodwork and creating this confusing brew, the one that stands out to me is the bank of japan. yesterday, what we heard from the bank of japan was that if they become confident that prices and wages will keep going up substantially, it will end its negative interest rate is one of the options available, and they would know this by the end of the year. how much does this change the game? win: it is interesting, it tells you something interesting about positioning. everybody was long dollar-yuan, but he says it is data dependent. if wage pressures go the way they want, maybe they can come up with a combination that is great.

to me, that is a nuanced way to say it depends on the data. we just had wage data last week from july. much weaker than expected. the wages are not keeping up with inflation. to me, the question is, how is the japanese data going to go? orders data overnight was weaker than expected. domestic orders plunge 30%. it is not just a china external story. despite all of this talk, and it is just jawboning, the bank of japan is likely to be on hold for the foreseeable future. lisa: what do you take from that, that we are overly weighted to a weaker yen, or the reaction that we are seeing today, not just in currencies but in the bond market in japan, is inaccurate and will reverse? win: the underlying

fundamentals, bank of japan on hold, the fed is tightening. that will be maintained through year-end. positioning to me tells me you had a violent reaction to what i thought was a very balanced comment. if wages and prices go the way that we want, maybe we can remove accommodations. not saying anything, not really promising anything, as any central banker should do. they should be very nimble. regardless, the violent reaction to me tells me that maybe we got overextended. dxy is up for eight straight weeks. to me, the data suggests that we are starting to creep back up to 3.5, 4%. core is stuck near 4%. that tells me the fed is nowhere near done, the market is

underestimated the capacity for the fed to tighten further. tom: what is your dollar call out one year? really tough to answer right now. what is your dollar call? win: a year is like an eternity in the markets. i would say, six months out, i'm confident the dollar continues to power higher. i lose a little bit conviction after that, but the euro is dipping into recession, the u.k., china is struggling. the u.s. will likely go into recession next year. if and when the fed goes into recession, that is when the donor starts to go down, but we keep pushing that out. q3 looks like it will still be strong, carrying over into q4. maybe we get a recession, i don't know. it is anyone's guess.

that is the game changer, when the u.s. goes into recession, the fed starts to recalibrate their settings. inflation is still at three, 4%. i don't think they will turn things around quickly. tom: thank you so much. win thin. i love what he said, and he is a grizzled pro, about trying to get out of the proverbial one-year. the way that anthony dwyer does at can accord, this is where we will be in one year. lisa: the reason why win was talking about how people are hesitant to make any big moves. dangerous to go short the dollar heading into cpi, ppi, because people are underestimating with the fed is likely to do. tom: you and jon have mentioned

it, we had to get beyond the news flow of the week, get to the strike. lisa: midnight thursday, 11:59 is when the deadline hits. into friday. tom: i am glad somebody has this figured out. lisa: burning question for you, did you actually subsist on twinkies for years? tom: these fruit hi things -- p ie things. talk about free cash flow. futures up 23. stay with us. claudia sahm, next. ♪

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tom: bloomberg surveillance. it is september 11 in new york. lisa about levitz, jonathan ferro will be with you in the 9:00 hour. downtown new york right now. we see the former mayor deblasio , the vice president independence today -- in attendance today. the president traveling back from india, will be in anchorage this afternoon.

lisa: in alaska, rather than new york city, one of the epicenters, on a day that still feels very recent to a lot of people out there. we cannot emphasize enough how it does not feel like 22 years. tom: i would go as far to say that it is harder every year for me. the vice president now moving to the ceremonies around 8:46 this morning, the first plane striking the buildings. it is shocking when you read history, remind ourselves, 17 minutes differential between the first hit in new york. back then, it felt like two hours, but just 17 minutes. lisa: it feels very recent, just the visceral experience.

tom: we will bring you some images of this at 8:46 and through the 9:00 hour. markets open. dow futures up 79. how your yields -- higher yields. dear i say it is a risk on feel? lisa: it is ambiguous, strong, aggressive neutral in terms of lack of conviction ahead of a massive week for economic data. tom: joining us now is claudia sahm, who is taking a victory lap, former fed economist. you absolutely nailed a number of months ago -- everybody calm down about the recession game.

can you calm doubt about the recession call or are there rules that say we should beware? claudia: first of all, no victory laps. not doing that as a forecaster. it was very clear for well over two years, a lot of the inflation was driven by disruptions from covid and then the more in ukraine. that is what we are seeing unwind. markets have reacted well to that. as inflation comes down, the fed doesn't have to do as much, and we have a lower risk of recession. i understand why the soft landing has gotten popular. yet, i'm concerned, as i watch the labor market data. payroll averaging was averaging 350,000. that is half of what they were doing earlier in the year.

payrolls have cooled off at a steady clip. they have to bottom out soon. if things keep on going south, that is what a recession looks like. we are in a hold your breath kind of moment for the economy. now we will see is this normalizing, getting back to pre-pandemic, or are we heading toward a recession? lisa: this is an important way to crystallize what a lot of people are looking at as encouraging news in the labor market. what makes you say it is a hold your breath kind of moment where we are not sure if it will normalize or keep going south? claudia: in the labor market, there are many key pieces if they get momentum going. the unemployment rate starts out slowly and then builds up steam. we have not seen the rate moving up. that does not mean that by the end of the year we are in a space where it has picked up steam and we are in

recession. the labor market is so important because it supports the consumer spending. we have seen the labor market cooling, we should see signs of consumer spending:, putting downward pressure on inflation. that is a tricky needle to thread in terms of not doing enough or too much. lisa: a tricky question around the uaw, strikes, discussions about getting paid more. we were talking about if this is a precursor of what is to come, especially as there is a re-globalization going on. claudia: there is an aspect of it, particularly uaw, that is looking backward. we have seen a strong economy, big profits by the automakers. they don't we negotiate these contracts every year, so now is

the time. there is a lot of history. they took a week contract in 2009 because the automakers were on the cliffs edge. now the tables have turned. uaw, i think, is a very backward looking -- exelon of sense why they are asking what they are asking for. tom: there is uproar in the u.k. about getting the eco data wrong. they are reassessing, redoing the math, statistics to a more optimistic united kingdom. do you have faith in the data? could we be in for a good day surprise out of washington? claudia: we need to be careful about reading too much into a single data point. we are getting a lot of data this week. you should look at the totality of the data. if you hang your hat on one piece of data -- we got

revisions in prior months of payrolls. it happens all year. we think it is strong and that we find that it is not as strong. there was some analysis of the pce core inflation, and there is a good band of revisions. right now we could be having 3.7 to 4.7. that is a big band. the fed knows these things. we think about revisions, but it makes it really hard. we don't really know what we think we know. tom: claudia sahm with us. the 9/11 memorial, mayor adams with other assembled mayors, including mr. bloomberg, mayor de blasio. along with them, the vice president, the governor of new york. lisa: commemorating a day that

feels very recent in the minds of people in new york and in this business. talking about the economic trajectory of the u.s. right now, we remember 22 years ago when this really keyed off an economic shift. still with us is claudia sahm. in terms of this muddle that we are in, whether we will see some similar turmoil in the data that will come out in a way that is protectable, how we look at those pivot points? tom: claudia has been really good about this. not a skeptic, but she has said, dig deeper into the data, particularly that the financial media has. there is a huge respect even among elites at the fed, central

banks, about the granularity of what she does. lisa: she said it is a hold your breath moment for the markets, could be a continuation of the declines we are seeing, how that could be a problem. we are speaking ahead of vicki week of data. cpi on wednesday. tom: cpi on wednesday. lisa: ppi on thursday, retail sales when people are wondering how long the u.s. can keep on having consumer spend. this all comes in the same week that the ecb has to make a decision. tom: over the weekend, i did a lot of reading. the different narratives out there are extraordinary. jon was talking about the persistency of iron ore.

for those of you on radio, we have lined up the events of the week. what is not there is china. maybe this is a week where we walk away from china. i don't hear people talking about chinese growth. there is a more buoyant tone, even with their challenges domestically. lisa: heading into today, there was some strong data published out of china that raises questions, are we at peak pessimism on china? which is why the u.n. was responding to some of the john boehner and we were hearing from the people's bank of china. are we seeing signs that things are not quite as bad? tom: the key theme for mandeep singh, the apple supply chain, which is where mr. cook created his career. bring it full circle to the president visiting vietnam, may

the hopes and dreams of india. there is a complexity here of these stories dovetailing together. i cannot tell you where they will be by halloween, when my pumpkins arrived. lisa: do you buy pumpkins? tom: we buy them decorative. lisa: you buy them pre-painted? what do you dress up as? this is a good point in terms of not really understanding how to game out further, what will be the predominant story when geopolitics is changing economic regimes. tom: september 11.

futures up 22. life going on, 22 years out. the imagery is very appropriate for september 11, but this year is different. the first lady in manhattan. the second husband will be in pennsylvania, i believe. the president flying back from india and vietnam. huge ceremony in vietnam. the president will have his remembrances here. i believe we will see him in anchorage, alaska. lisa: it is a different september 11. we were talking earlier about how long it will remain a front and center, visceral feeling. it has not faded. we talked about how much it has been a present feeling.

it reconfigured the downtown part of new york city, reconfigured some aspects of the market. as we celebrate this opening of markets every day with the ringing of bells, life goes on. there is that push/pull with those tragedies. tom: the idea of jfk's assassination, on from pearl harbor, 22 years on, 1963. i found that stunning when i did the math yesterday. we see in manhattan, the beginning of the ceremonies, three minutes away from the first remembrance of the first plane striking the world trade center.

lisa: we are three minutes away from that moment of silence. claudia sahm back with us for a moment. i would love your sense of how an economy reshapes following a tragedy, following a massive disruptions, what lessons are applicable today? claudia: we have had national tragedies like 9/11 in the past. it is slow and painful. many economists underestimate -- for three years, we shut it down. there were a lot of disruptions. i certainly underestimated how long it would take to get things back on track. we have seen a lot of things are not unwound. and they may not. mainly, we have to give ourselves some time to get there. tom: claudia sahm, things were

rejoining us today. all of her work at sahm consulting and the federal reserve system. remind me of the courage of roger ferguson. alan greenspan was abroad at the time and he stepped up big. the chaos that day and even into the next day, roger ferguson was the one that solidified the financial system of america. lisa: a lot of commemoration today on the 22nd anniversary. when we think back to a time, it feels so recent in so many ways, that did reshape many aspects of downtown. the pomp and circumstance has grown with the years that have gone on, but the emotions are still very much present. tom: welcome to all of you

worldwide to these set of celebrations -- commemorations. we will see that in shanksville, pennsylvania, as well. the president in anchorage, alaska this afternoon, as well. there is a bell in lower manhattan. every year. i keep on waiting for this to get easier, and it just doesn't. lisa: it doesn't for all the families torn apart, the people that lost people. tom: mayor adams lined up with the governors. let us listen into this moment of remembrance.

♪ tom: in manhattan, in new york, a ceremony that we have seen for 22 years. full coverage on bloomberg radio, bloomberg television of these memories across the nation. we will listen to little bit more to this beautiful music. firefighters, police officers, as well. data check. futures up 23. dow futures up 71.

as we look at the equity markets, where we are in 2023, i can say it was easier in october of last year when gina martin adams said you have to participate, be in the market. she never said go to cash. she joins us at a time when a lot of people want to go to cash right now. cash is 5% plus etc. an allure there that has not been there in the past 17 years. gina: and the risk premium is substantially more than it was 17 years ago. it's a much more difficult environment for investing because of the distortions in the equity market as well. if you look at the evaluation excesses, almost entirely in the tech space, top five to seven stocks specifically. those stocks are very vulnerable at this moment in time. any news on apple, the biggest

company in the u.s., also bigger than the entirety of the small-cap index in terms of market cap, will have a significant impact on the index at large. a lot of distortion to contend with. certainly more difficult this time compared to last year, when investors were all fearful. now investors have gotten back on board, engaged in the equity market, and that create more difficult investing conditions. lisa: is this a frustrating time to be coming up with strategy? gina: it is always frustrating, challenging. part of the reason i love what i do, it is never the same. every day is different as an investor. today's investing climate is substantially different from 10 years ago. you had an environment of certainty with respect to interest rates, which was unique and historical perspective. we had not been through that kind of climate before as an investing generation.

when you have an environment of extreme certainty, interest rates, extreme certainty in terms of levels of volatility, that creates the conditions that we have today. for most investors today, how generationally different the investing landscape is, inflation landscape that is the backdrop for that investing landscape, incredibly contentious and difficult for an investor who has been in the market for 30 years. we have not seen this kind of climate. lisa: people talking about the difficulty of treating data that we get this week. from your vantage point, how important are those data points? how do you trade around them at a time where it is not one data point that moves the needle for the fed? gina: it is different now from earlier this year. inflation became this major turning point for stocks late last year, early this year, when

cvi crossed over ppi for the first time in more than a year. consumer prices rising faster than producer prices, both decelerating. now it is a matter of continuation. that turning point was really consequential for equity portfolio strategies, a point in time when you wanted to rotate into more cyclically oriented sectors, away from defensive sectors. before we were sort of generally worried about everything. now it is can we continue to see this momentum? which is a different environment, a lot more difficult, because you don't have these major catalysts for change. will the fed finally stop? will cpi and ppi continue to improve? that creates a greater degree of stress and risk than the major turning points, which are the major opportunities. tom: my textbook says to look at three years. if i look at walmart, that is a

simple revenue growth of 15%. microsoft is going to give me 11% per year, simple growth doubled, 33%. why would i buy microsoft over walmart? gina: most investors are coming to that same conclusion based on where multiples are. you could argue that is priced in as stocks. tom: are these luxury goods value stocks? gina: they are still growth stocks, too rich to be value stocks, on this you get a surprise to the expectations, which is increasingly what investors are counting on. not only am i going to get that 33% growth but i was see a surprise to the upside on that growth outlook. tom: what do your people say? gina: a lot of it frankly depends on the rate of assimilation of ai, the growth of ai.

tom: she is just reading mandeep singh. she has no clue. lisa: we are all trying to understand the implications. gina: that was what was priced into the tech space over the past six months. this is something new. we are going to presume it is a lot faster potential growth than what we were projecting six months ago. that malan be depend on how fast those programs get embedded into capital spending plans, half as they become an integrated part of overall operating efficiency improvements. and we don't know how fast these retail companies are going to pull ai into their operations. we have a pretty good handle on technology providers themselves. but we don't know is the rest of the economy out how fast that can improve. tom: blue-chip stocks taken out.

there was a window in the 1960's where i single-handedly propped up hostess. does smokers care about ai? gina: why not in terms of their brand value? think about how important their brand is to them. to the degree they can utilize ai to the degree of brand improvement. tom: ai will help them selling peanut butter and jelly? gina: they can use these technological advancements to understand their client better. they can use technology to figure out how to access their market faster. these are all market efficiencies for these grants. there is huge upside for ai to figure out these things. lisa: what does it mean to you that these deals are coming through right now, that we are seeing this acquisition of smuckers buying hostess, the idea that instacart is potentially going public even at reduced valuation? are they trying to time the

market, how are they playing this out? gina: i think it's a combination of things. one thing to consider is companies are sitting on an arms amount of cash. we forget that cash on corporate balance sheets are near all-time highs even with debt, the cost of debt is rising. it is fueling some degree of transaction value. the second thing is where growth prospects will come from, some of the best ways to utilize is to buy growth. fewer return on investment ideas. volume growth turns out to be a reasonable opportunity for some of these company. in terms of deals coming to the market, we have been through 20 years of no deals coming to the equity market. any deals coming to the equity market are generally pretty well subscribed. in particular deals in hot spaces, growth areas of the market.

deals will be subscribed because there is still demand for public equities. there is limited amounts of supply. tom: thank you so much, gina martin adams with bloomberg intelligence on the equity markets. this afternoon, one of my favorite people, howard lutnick will be with us. so many memories of 9/11. always valued by bloomberg. we will leave you this morning with the reading of the names. the hardest part here, these kids got bigger. lisa: they lost people they didn't even remember. they were little. tom: they are not little anymore. but it continues. we will continue this. jen ferro -- jon ferro will have

that. it is september 11. ♪ it's easy to get lost in investment research. introducing j.p. morgan personal advisors. hey david. connect with an advisor to create your personalized plan. let's find the right investments for your goals okay, great. j.p. morgan wealth management.

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jon: good morning. for audiences worldwide, we start with this quote right here from john williamson. two mike mckee. monetary policy is "in a good place." equity futures positive here. on the nasdaq, pushing higher, the countdown to the open start right now. >> everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trading. this is bloomberg the open with jonathan ferro.