>> a very good morning. welcome to "bloomberg daybreak: australia." i'm haidi stroud-watts in sydney. >> we are counting down to asia's major market opens. >> i'm shery ahn in new york. the top stories this hour -- u.s. stairs again ahead of economic data that may shape the fed's rate decision. morgan stanley upgrades the stock. >> a semi conductor seal and a sign the iphone maker's own chips are taking longer than expected for apple. >> and arm orders set to close a day early as they consider raising the offer price. take a look at how futures are coming online. we are seeing a little bit of pressure after u.s. stocks rose

in their session. this of course as we continue to watch the fed bank of new york survey, showing u.s. consumer expectations were mostly stable in august. the cpi report wednesday will provide the latest clues into prices here in the u.s.. minimal action for treasuries. the 10 year yield, finishing a touch below the 430 level, ending the day mixed. we had the three your notes auction drawing the highest yield since 2007 reflecting the recent bond market selloff we have seen. oil at the moment, not doing much, after it fell in the new york session. . a little bit of consolidation, near the highs of the year. technical indicators suggesting perhaps the gains could have been overdone. remember oil searched almost -- surgwd almost -- surged almost

$20 a barrel since mid-june. we saw the new york session jump in tesla after morgan stanley said the supercomputer could boost value by up to $500 million. we also saw qualcomm gaining ground. apple extended the deal with the chipmaker. we are watching apple itself because we are expecting those products coming out on tuesday. charter communications, jumping after reaching an agreement with walt disney on ending up like out of espn. we are watching oracle, under pressure given they reported cloud sales growth but slowed -- that slowed in the quarter. >> certainly a bit of that optimism around those tech stocks in particular, looking to boost the asian session. we've got futures mostly pointing to the upside. new zealand, a little bit weaker. we are watching that story and japan. yesterday we were about the moves in the japanese yen.

there could be a case building to end negative rates, possibly putting yield curve control in focus. we still got the topix looking for a further jump ahead of the open and tokyo a couple of hours from now. we are also watching not just intervention warnings or the risk of it from the boj, yesterday we also had chinese policymakers as well indicating they were unhappy with the weakness they are seeing in the chinese yuan, better credit data for august, a stronger fix coming through, that lifted the yuan for its best day in six months. that is the offshore yuan here. certainly the yuan, a key focus for us in this region. some economists/analysts saying we could looked to test 7.4 if the economic data coming in later this week -- all the monthly activity numbers -- are weaker than expected. >> let's get more on the markets with our first guest.

zachary hill is the head of portfolio management at horizon investment. this is no longer the story of u.s. exceptionalism for you, even as we see the rate and growth divergence continue to build? >> yeah, we continue to like everything going on in the u.s. economy. quite frankly, you've got a lot of momentum. people have been negative on it for a long time. you need to look at the labor market, consumer violent streets, and private sector -- consumer balance sheets and private sector balance sheets. you have a good picture both for the dollar -- it is not so great for bonds, the we are getting towards the end of that pain. that is how we like it the moment on the equities side. >> what do you like in terms of international?

in terms of the market darlings in this part of the world, japn, india -- japan, india, the alternatives to china, valuations are looking pretty stretched. >> there is no doubt, you look over periods of time, there are great valuation gaps and in fact they have widened. we prefer to use valuation as a cross-section, not as a time series. unit account -- you need a catalyst. favorable catalysts right now are in japan. some of that is about formalization. some of it is about corporate reform. then some of that is the -- halo of the warren buffett affect -- some of that is the halo of the warren buffett effect. if you look at what's going on in china, in europe, there is

not really a lot of good stories there from our perspective right now. we are certainly watching that space. evaluation gaps -- the valuation gaps are what they are. >> who and japan -- who in japan would benefit the most from normalization by the boj? >> the banking sector i think is a major one. we are certainly watching. we saw her comments over the weekend. just to see where things settle out. it is not to have a path toward policy normalization -- it is nice to have a path toward policy normalization. i think the story is pretty clear, it's pretty disruptive for the economy writ large but especially for the banking sector. that is an area we would think about there. >> what does normalization and the u.s. look like to you and what sectors could get hit or benefit from the changes that the fed -- at the fed?

>> there's a big debate right now certainly within the market and even internally within our team, we have seen a lot of easing on the supply side, it's brought down inflation from 9% to 4%'s. we got interest rates now over 5%. they are clearly restrictive. how restrictive is a bit of an open question. but what happens as we look forward 6-12 months from now? does the fed need to hold rates around here like some of the more hawkish members like chair powell said, which do we need to do? we will be watching the data. certainly the growth data is very important and this week's inflation data as well.

bond yields can go up for good reasons or bad reasons like higher inflation, necessitating higher interest rates, or worries about fiscal sustainability and the like. we saw a little bit of that in august. >> there has been a lot of signs will continue to see there is a lessee in the u.s. economy, and the macro narrative has led to that potential soft landing scenario. what happens of the narrative changes before third quarter earnings season comes in? >> if it changes, we will probably see a change in market leadership. this year has been one where the macro narrative has been changing every 4-6 weeks. we as a firm have been more positive on the economy for a long time. it is a little bit worrying we seem to be in this consensus soft landing camp. the one that is on fewer people's radar is a real acceleration of inflation. i think the overall idea is

we have a more resilient economy and gradually lower interest rates. that's a good base case. there's situation -- there is a situation especially if you have tightness in the labor market where you have a real acceleration because the economy continues to drive on on the inflation front, and the market is not prepared for that. if you look at where real yields are and where energy stocks are trading, that is a scenario that offers asymmetry in a diversified portfolio. >> when you take a look at the market leadership we have seen across ai, it is a u.s. and asia story, do you see that extended? would you be a little bit pickier? given how far it's already run-up. >> we are doing a lot of work to try to find additional ways to get exposure to the ai theme. this is a months and years type

of phenomenon, not weeks and days, which is certainly the market these days -- the market is certainly myopic these days. we are looking for areas outside of the u.s. to diversify exposure. that is ongoing work we are doing. some chip producers and the like within the asia region check a lot of those boxes. that is stuff we are looking at internally. we do think this is a big deal from an economic perspective and they market perspective that we will be talking about for some time. >> zachary hill, good to have you with us. still ahead, we speak exclusively with the president of rapidas about their plan to produce semi conductors from scratch, and more on apple's extension of its qualcomm chip deal as we count down to the

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>> qualcomm shares surged in new york after apple expended a deal to get semi conductors -- modem semi conductors from the tip giant. their efforts to design their chips and house is taking longer than expected. the contract extension could result in significant upside to qualcomm sales estimates. we have more now from san francisco. what does this agreement signal in terms of the complexity of designing modem chips? >> back in april of this year, we made a call there was a low likelihood qualcomm chips get dropped for the 2024 iphone, and thankfully that is what happened. designing a 5g cellular modem

chip is a very complex process. you need to work across different regions and spectrums, across 3g, 4g, 5g, then you have to qualify it across various different service providers and districts. that is the first step to get a working solution. even after that, you cannot have a premium flagship iphone, performing lower than a qualcomm chip, otherwise you will have other end wrote -- other androids selling with a higher connectivity. apple does not just need to come out with a working solution but at least match qualcomm. this is a very complex process. >> what do you say has been the impact on qualcomm's revenues and estimates? >> at least on the lower end, if we think about $5 billion, should we add it to fiscal 2025, when everyone assumed qualcomm

would be dropped from the iphone, in 2024, it would be $5 to $7 billion dollars. >> how would they phase out solutions when this actually is ready? >> i think it will be a phaseout, starting from the lower products, wearables like the ipad or a -- wearables, the ipad, the macs. the iphones would be the last ones where the qualcomm solutions should be phased out. >> staying with apple, haman capital management founder and cio kyle abbas says the company will face a long period of distress and china. he told us geopolitical tensions

are becoming a key risk for apple's future performance. >> apple, from what i can see, expects to sell 45 million iphones in china this year with the ban at the national level and even the state-owned provincial levels in china. the difference between the u.s. government banning something on the chinese government banning something for government employees is the people of china will let's say focus more on the state than they will on the market based economy -- or so-called market-based economy. whether it is the renewal cycle of four or five one million iphones this year or the actual 45 million they expect to sell, i think apple is in for a let's just say a much longer period of distress in china, and i think you have seen apple trying to move india the on the production side, and they've been successful in moving a very

large portion of their production and a short time. -- in a short time. >> you just a president biden in vietnam and a lot of jb's being formed with u.s. companies. if you look at a stock, is it as simple as you get x amount of revenue from china, therefore after short you or not invest in you? >> oh, no, it's really simple, where does apple trade on a forward sales basis and what percentage of their assemblies are done today by foxconn in china? that number is coming down, but it is still a big number, north of 60%. i think that apple is one of the companies -- it is the most widely held stock in america -- and it is one that unfortunately could fall in the crosshairs of xi's ambitions with taiwan. i think it is worth talking about. warren buffett didn't sell its taiwan semi position because it thought it got too expensive and

it was not a great investment, i think the geopolitical atmosphere is something that came into play in their decisions with taiwan semi. the last 20 years of the world has been driven by economics and economic interests, we are at a hinge and history know where the next 20 years are going to be driven more by geopolitics down by economics. if you own apple, you should consider what a belligerent xi jinping could do to your portfolios. >> haman capital management cio kyle abbas speaking with bloomberg's alix steel. you can get the stories to get your day going on today's edition of daybreak, terminal subscribers, go to dayb. you can customize your settings so you get the news on the industries and assets that you care about. this is bloomberg. ♪ let innovation refunds help

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>> jp morgan's ceo is again taking aim at higher capital requirements u.s. regulars have proposed for banks. jamie dimon says he would love to know what they would love to accomplish. he also questioned whether regulators have learned reasons from this year's regional bank failures. >> it wasn't the federal reserve in general. it was each one of them independently. it was each central bank. they might have a little more humility over stuff like this. >> staying on banks, bloomberg has learned ubs is cutting hundreds of asia wealth management jobs just months after completing its takeover of

credit suisse. bloomberg's vonnie quinn has more on this. the asia wealth teams were supposed to be sort of safe from these cuts, what happened? >> that was the initial stated plan. we you were going to be job cuts when the merger occurred and ubs targeted as much as 3000 domestically, we didn't know how many globally ubs would be targeting, at the asia wealth management part of thing was supposed to be a little bit safer. now we are hearing from sources that there will be job cuts. however it will be fairly low, in terms of the numbers, the low hundreds, perhaps even around 100, though the number has not been finalized. it will all likely be done by november. bear in mind, ubs did have about 850 private bankers in the region it your end. credit suisse had 580. if you put those two together, it is a behemoth of more than 1400 people at the same area, more than their rivals combined.

they were going all out in the region but of course with slowing china growth and muted activity as we have seen over the last several months, those plans have clearly changed. >> have we seen anything more specific when it comes to the layoffs, what they would be concentrated on? >> hong kong and singapore for the most part is what we are hearing. one source says those in india and australia are safe, at least for now. the pity of it all is that the chief global wealth officer had thrown a big celebratory engagement back in june after the merger happened to try to rile up the troops and sort of go after that big, big market across asia, not just and hong kong but singapore and right around the area -- in hong kong but singapore and right around the area. to interrupt the revenue piece by piece. but now obviously those plans

have changed and some of those 1400 are going to be let go primarily in hong kong and singapore. >> vonnie quinn, with the latest on banks. we have an alert on a story we have been tracking -- senator mark warren is -- senator elizabeth warren is now saying the u.s. should probe elon musk and actions on ukraine related to start link. elon musk last year curtail to satellite service to prevent ukraine using it for an attack on russia fleet in crimea. the satellite service has been a lifeline for ukraine in the early days of the war. we heard from secretary of state antony blinken, talking about how the starling satellite service is a vital tool for ukraine, and now we are hearing from senator warren that the u.s. should be probing elon musk himself for starlink actions on ukraine.

haidi. >> some of the other corporate stories we are tracking at the moment -- oracle shares slumped in extend the trading after a slow down in quarterly sales growth. revenue jumped by 13% pure would oracle's focus on expanding its cloud infrastructure business to more forcefully compete with the likes of amazon, microsoft and alphabet. charter communications is set to offer disney's flagship streaming service at no additional cost to its cable-tv subscribers. the nation's's second largest cable provider will include disney plus inits $60 a month offering. they will pay disney wholesale price for the service. let's take a look at how some of these currencies are trading at the moment. we are seeing the japanese yen holding around 0146 level

after we saw the incredible strength against the u.s. dollar, the most in about two months. we had heard from governor ueda hinting at the possibility of ending the last key negative interest rates in the world, telling local newspaper that it is possible the boj will have enough information by year end to judge if wages will continue to rise. we will continue to track yields, as they have surged on those comments. we are watching the aussie dollar and the kiwi dollar holding steady. we saw them jump the last few sessions against the u.s. dollar we have seen positive comments from secretary yellen about the u.s. sticking a soft landing but at the same time given the strength of the chinese yuan, that also sent currencies across australia and new zealand higher. you can take a look at the offshore yuan at the 730 level,

rallying the most since march after the pboc gave a strong verbal warning in its defense. >> we saw strength when it comes to the check rally overnight -- tech rally overnight, that is determined by where the fed goes from here, the communication goes from here. s&p futures, the nasdaq, all modestly lower. flat trading when it comes to the dow. we saw u.s. stocks gaining ahead of some key eco-data that will really help shape expectations on how close the fed is from ending is current hiking cycle. we saw a mixed picture for bonds and a slightly softer dollar. watching the asia open, where futures are the power goes out and we still have wifi to do our homework. and that's a good thing? great in my book! who are you?

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>> you're watching deborah

kostroun there, we are hearing divergent views on whether now is the time to buy up bonds ahead of the fed meeting next week as discussed on morning calls, let's bring in annabelle and singapore. black rock says that this is a rare moment to capture a yield. >> that's right sherry, we had an interview with the managing director in the broader fixed income team at blackrock, and he is calling this a generational moment to be buying up bonds, and the reason he says that is because he sees that we would have to go back a decade or for there to find the type of yield you have now in the market. he says that it is a tough time, difficult for any investor to know when to pick that hike in rates, he's instead invite -- advising investors to grow for eight -- go for a water allocation. -- broader allocation. we have another core reading coming through trending high on

the terminal, j.p. morgan's collateral bench -- kalanovich streaming the overweight allocation on bonds, favoring cash, and the allocation was at 2%, it used to be a 3%, and boosting cash up to 5% from 4%. why is he saying that? it is that story of rising commodity prices. he says that is going to reignite inflation. -- inflation. when you have high pressures, more hiking from central banks, including the fed. >> we are hearing more about the impact of higher rates. >> that's right, before you had an interview with the head of capital management cio, carl talking about china's market, but he also spoke about what was happening in u.s. property space, saying that when you have

high rates, you have shifting workplace translate into a lot of stress for the office space in particular, here is what he said about banks and what they stand to risk from this sort of market. take a listen. >> i think banks in the u.s. will lose $250 billion in offers over time here. and there is about $2 trillion of equities in the bank. it's a 22% hit, and will that be evenly distributed, probably not. if it were, it would not be a problem. but the losses in the commercial real estate sector will be in the office sector. >> instacart and its backers have set the stage for an ipo that might deliver value in as much as 9.3 billion dollars. it's a significant decline from the last fundraising round of

2021. abigail doolittle reports. >> the ipo window is open, and one well-known name is considering pricing its listing on's -- tuesday september 19. but at a significant discount to what it might have fetched in the pandemic payday. instacart as/its valuation to 9.3 billion dollars, a quarter of what it was worth in the pandemic. this will allow the largest grocery delivery company to raise about $660 million by offering 14.1 million new shares for 26-20 eight dollars each. shareholders are holding 9.6 million shares at the same price wherever it is determined to land. the $9.3 billion innovation could still move higher based on demand, it is a tremendous and noticeable drop from the pandemic high valuation in 2021 of $39 billion. there were versions of lockdowns

and difficulties for people to shop in stores, that same year the company did replace that ceo. in conjunction with the ipo, pepsico buying 170 $5 million of its preferred convertible stock -- stock, another source of funding. it could unstick the backlog of companies who have been stymied by the longest wall of u.s. listings since the financial crisis in 2008. >> bloomberg has learned that arm holdings ipo is now 10 times oversubscribed, and bankers are planning to stop taking orders by tuesday afternoon. shares are still expected to be priced on wednesday, bloomberg's equity capital markets is following this story, and joins us in the new york city. it's not necessarily unusual to close the order book early, but what this is telling -- is this telling us about the man? >> it tells us demand is strong.

it's 10 times, and the orders are still coming. it takes a bit of time to actually gather all the information and for them to allocate. and also, closing early is telling investors to get their act together, said in the order before. -- send in the order before. >> night has been so much back and forth when it comes to pricing. do we know the latest on how they are leaning? >> we are not sure, there are a lot of moving parts of it, right now, it is 10 times subscribe, it is probably going to be priced at the top end of the range or even move above the range. there were elitist discussions about moving the rate altogether upwards, but it's difficult to see how things will close, and nvidia, which is a benchmark,

some people are benchmarking arm, and that has fallen by 7% over the last few sessions. there is a lot of genuineness as to where to price it, and whether to -- it will boil the aftermarket. >> we have seen that anxiety in the market, is this a good time to come to market? >> there is no good or bad time at the end of the day, it boils down to the pricing. at the moment it is still strong. do people really care about whether they're going to lose on -- several dollars on a share, some people are only selling 10%, and the aftermarket might be good, the hype typed rising all boats, softbank still hopes that will move things up a lot more. >> are equity capital reported there.

the japanese government is aiming to build the country's own version of tsmc from scratch. the cio told us about the company's big ambition, including the japanese region into a center for chip innovation. >> tsmc is a great company. we respect their manufacturing technologies. and for us, we don't want to compete in the same market as well. we will manufacture not so much large volume, but redirect and challenge new additional characteristics of chips with a

high-speed regular chips and others, and new technology. and we also want to create new banners. we need a relationship and to work together. also the differential point would be speed. our company can make, we are estimating two times faster than any other company. >> he started this company from scratch. you have 200 employees. as you go forward, how many do you think you're going to have and what is the ideal ratio of japanese to foreign employees in your company? >> we don't want to be only

japanese. we attract a worldwide network of talented people. i don't have an actual number yet, but we welcome everybody who wants a big challenge for new ideas, and we are very much eager to work with a wider audience. >> what's the limit, how far do you go, how many employees see you expect to have? over the 67 years? >> not so many people yet. i'm very much afraid to compete with other people in the industry. there are people who had from the u.s., or people who are very

much into teamwork in hokkaido, who are welcome to join. >> the japanese government has promised to support what you're doing. how long, and how much support do you think you might need from the government? >> we are very much all in on the japanese government, they are supporting us very well. and also groundbreaking mission -- measures from the minister, and not only continuously supporting our company. according to japanese law, we

cannot say actually how many years, but every year, we make key progress and the japanese government continuously supports us. >> speaking issues away with the bloomberg editor in chief emeritus. more to climb on daybreak australia. this is bloomberg. --, on daybreak australia this is bloomberg. ♪

traders in the $354 billion industry for emerging markets trading funds are shifting cash away from china. they withdrew more than $2 billion in august from the ishares emerging markets etf which allocates a third of its capital into china. and etf investing in emerging markets outside of china wrapped and 11 -- an 11th straight month of inflows. let's talk with carmina wilson. where are the traders sit --

shifting money to. >> we see them reemerge in a few different places after being rejected. em xc has been a popular one, talking about market exposure, pulling out of china. it will boost exposure to other countries or regions that have more bullish growth stories, like india, they will have it to expect -- percent exposure to india, and that fund you mentioned will have a 17% exposure. more on india, and more on latin america stories that have been popular like brazil and mexico. mexico has one of the best-performing stock indexes this year, part of that thanks to the surety trend, thanks to the country embarking on its easing cycle. and india, so may are bullish on

this, not holding too much in china there. >> fastest growing economy in the world. these funds are giving him exposure in different ways, and that is luring and investors. >> what about the types of investors that are shifting monday -- money into these funds? are they fast money, more speculative trading action? >> that's the question, because when we look at what etf's are in for, and what they attract, they are meant for retail investors because they traditionally give access to these hard to access corners of the market, em being a good example of that with them -- within financial markets. these funds are not only attracting those retail investors but attracting pro and sophisticated fast money investors. they are being learned in by what makes etf's attractive to

retail investors, liquidity, the ability to get in and out fast. there are some of the things attracting to the retail side that also attract to those sophisticated traders, which is good to see them mixed. >> we have talked about em funds out of china, but have you seen interesting around those vehicles that actually are focused on china? >> there are couple tickers that are interesting,, yinn and yang, a fair play and a bowl play on chinese equities, and leverage funds have had a reputation in the market, because they are leveraged, and often they can be a little tricky in terms of how to play that for returns. but we are seeing an interesting retail audience that wants to play those in a fun way for short-term trading on a day-to-day basis, they have ticked up in liquidity, which has been an interesting turn for some of the large products.

>> caroline wilson here with the latest, and you can find that story, check out more on the emerging markets on the terminal, and typing em go. -- on top em go. >> breaking news when it comes to everson football club, liverpool's everton football club is close to a sale 27 77 partners llc. they have been weighing this matter for a number of months now, this has been in discussion, more american buyers have been circling england's top football clubs, miami-based 777, led by stephen pascal and josh wanda have been interested in that minority stake in everton northwest of england. one of the handful of clubs that have never been relegated from the premier league. american investors are looking to get eight piece of the riches

football league in europe, and we have seen mixed shifts when it comes to ownership and performance in this area. we continue to monitor, but apparently close to a deal for everson football club. staying in the u.k., jeremy hunt says that the government is focused on fighting inflation with past pressures remain high, speaking to us after the g20, the treasury may not have the headroom for tax cuts or other giveaways, he says. >> it is unlikely, because since the spring budget, when the last numbers were published, we have seen inflation stickier, then was forecast at the time, and that means interest payments are higher. we don't have the numbers from the office of budget response ability. this is a sticky situation for both of us. our priority is to bring down inflation.

when you're trying to bring down inflation, you have to be really careful not to pump extra money into the economy, as much as you would like to, not to pump extra money into people's pockets, because that can push up prices and keep inflation higher for longer. the one thing that i can absolutely say is that our focus will be on bringing down inflation and delivering the prime minister's goal to have inflation and get it down to 2%. >> inflation has either, but not as much as other countries, especially in terms of the rates of its easing. do you think that they have done a good job? >> in fairness to the bank of england, lots of central banks around the world underestimated the persistence of inflation. they were one of the first to raise interest rates when they did. and we brought inflation down from over 11% to 6.8%.

where making progress. we have also discovered that the u.k. has a gdp that is higher than pre-pandemic levels, and is recovery better than any other major european country. the economy has shown that it is resilient. the long-term future the -- depends on getting inflation down. >> the u.k. chancellor of the exchequer speaking exclusively to haslinda amin in new delhi. let's get to the latest in geopolitics because the north korean leader is heading to russia for talks with vladimir putin. north korea's casein a news agency says he's trying let pyongyang so the, and south korean me that reported that he was expected to cross the northeast border early tuesday. they are set to discuss arms as

russia seeks support for the war in ukraine. canada's armed forces say that justin trudeau may finally be able to leave india on tuesday afternoon at the earliest. trudeau and his delegation have been stranded after the aging government jet that they arrived on broke down. a backup plan and spare parts are on their way to new delhi. we have more head on daybreak, this is bloomberg. ♪

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>> tesla rallied by the most since january with a 10% gain after morgan stanley analysts upgraded the stock on the basis of its supercomputer. su keenan joins us with the latest on them raising the price to 400 bucks per share. >> is a very bullish call. the $400 per share price target is the highest on wall street. this is adam jonas saying that tesla's dojo supercomputer, which aids in its training of its automated driving technology , and systems, watching this video taken in the netherlands where the driver takes her hands off of the wheel. this could add as much as $500 billion to the market value, the analyst says, because it would assist in the faster adoption of self-automated so-called auto

taxis and turbotax ease. and those kinds of systems. again, robotaxis and network services could become the biggest driver of revenue which is what the analyst is saying. and they seem to like it, the stock jumped on the call dramatically. >> we should also point out this is not the first time that this analyst has made a dramatic change to his outlook for tesla. >> in 2050, he made a very bullish call, he raised his price target by 66% on the basis of his view that tesla might offer some kind of app-based on-demand mobility service like uber and lyft, but eight years, no service has been rolled out. tesla has mentioned that dojo gives it an edge in ai and self driving technology, it has been saying that since 2021 and in july must said -- he told investors that the carmaker

plans to invest more than $1 billion on the project. shares have more than doubled this year for tesla. >> su keenan with the latest. coming up in the next hour, why the fed might stay high for longer. u.s. inflation is not back in the comfort zone until the end of next year. we will also be speaking to the aqua greater china ceo about their expansion plans. that is it for daybreak australia, daybreak asia is next. this is bloomberg. ♪

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