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tv   Bloomberg Daybreak Europe  Bloomberg  September 18, 2023 1:00am-2:00am EDT

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good morning and welcome to do regular. let's get to the top stories that set your agenda. asian stocks fall in the wake of big tech declines on wall street. traders stand by for a big week of central-bank decisions from the u.s., the u.k., japan, all around the world. we are bringing you the best analysis on bloomberg television and radio. the united auto workers bit union except a pay raise. the strike gets the big three u.s. carmakers as they enter a new day as the team from the white house moves to detroit. plus, as world leaders gather for you u.n. general assembly, and linda burbach tells bloomberg they will end their reliance on china. all investors really bracing for what we will hear out of the central-bank decision. the ecb already kind of rocking everyone's world last week. really pulling back on a lot of pushback from across the continent.
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that will be significant when we talk about just how people are positioned going into the week of central-bank decisions. list are from the bottom up here. the fed will be the highlight this week followed by a lot of the moves from the boe but then all of the ball you have brazil reporting. the boj at the end of the week. what does the central-bank rhythm tell us about whether or not we are ending this time of heightening? this will be crucial as we talk about the equity market. how much of that will have an effect on the price of the market and the ripple effects into the equity market? thus our sense of it coming off at the moment. the futures, not that much reaction in the top 50 but a lot of that might be sentiment coming from asia. we will dive into what is going on in that part of the world right now. green on the screen in the u.s. session. a little bit of a defensive trade at play there. the inflationary measures, specifically one talk about brent crude. that is where we'll see a lot of
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green on the screen. higher by .6%. almost $95 per barrel for that commodity. that will be crucial. we are already seeing a little bit of ripple effect into the commodity exposed currencies. look at the kiwi. the biggest contributors on the bloomberg dollar index, even the swissie. now paring back some of that earlier weakness. it is something we will keep a lot of our eyes on at the moment. we are getting breaking news. they are talking about revisiting some of their strategy. right now they are trading at their lowest price, lagging all of their computer -- their european competitors right now. now they're talking about what that strategy looks like. they are phasing in their cet1 ratio by 30% from the end of 2025 in the 2600 basil four program. we are going to keep you apprised of all of those developments. we can dive into what this all actually means right now.
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let's get to our stories from all around the world. i want to start with you. the market story will be the crucial driver. specifically when we talk about the federal reserve. let's start there. they came in with some analysis as we can saying that the legs are not priced into the economy. we will still see a lot of that. to me that his front of mind. what is front of mind for you? >> how far they shift those dots. a lot of speculation on a possible shift higher. that is the way the fed members communicate where they think the rate is by the end of the year. they could possibly shift those 2024 dots higher in a bid to convince markets that hire for longer is here. there is some speculation that we could also see some shift in this threat of additional hikes moving through this year into next year which would be a very interesting way for the fed to
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communicate that threat of additional hikes on the cards. maybe not until 2024. those would be the dynamics at play for the fed. >> what would that set for the bank of england? is jay powell central banker -- central bankers of the world right now? it we have the ecb already signaling, we get the same was from the bank of england. we do get that cpi print on the people of this bank of england decision. possibly harvey acceleration and core inflation would prevent the bank of england from signaling that the rates have peaked here in the u.k. but i think the market is expecting bailey to sound as dovish as he did two weeks ago on the treasury select committee and very much and that the peak of rates is here. >> what is so interesting about that is even over the weekend you heard some people saying from some european leaders really pushing back on the strategy. i heard that she is living on
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mars. some of the big fighting words coming out of the european leaders, this divergence you are going to see in between the monetary and fiscal policy really escalating for lack of a better term. is pretty interesting to watch. we think you as always for that story. the -- the fed and the central-bank anxiety -- april is standing by. walk us through. >> you talk about the central-bank anxiety. it is not just the fed. we are watching here in asia but also keeping close watch on the chinese real estate sector. the pessimism surrounding the health of that. offsetting the signs of optimism we see stabilization coming off of the chinese economy. at least based on some of the data. then we have the tech sector today, it is dragging the
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benchmark in the region. taiex underperforming. dragged by tech after the declines on wall street last week. unsurprising the kind of moves we are seeing. i want to focus on these because this was to the lowest level we have seen early on in the session. into the green now. the focus on the chinese property stocks. there is a boat that is due for their extension. in evergrande, another stock watch. developments over the weekend where we got those police arresting or detaining some of the wealth management units. we saw it dropping 25% early on in the session. pulled into positive territory now. the concern is this could be a sign that it is a new phase for
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the property developer and whether this will mean more problems to come for chinese real estate. as we look ahead to some of the central-bank positions this week. >> at the core of it will be the inflationary story. but this is not something we are talking about, the wage piece of that inflation. how the asian markets are faring right now. at the core of it, it comes to the stickiness of inflation. a big part of that is going to be the wage story. it is going to be how a lot of these unions specifically in the united states are setting prices for the ripple effects around the world there. this is in response to one of the biggest rag stories in the world right now. >> i was that we doubt with the semiconductor shortage. they have continued to persist from covid. our team knows how to manage these situations.
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we will do what is right for the company. we will make sure everyone stays safe. responded to some of the fighting words coming out of the united auto workers. representing about 150,000 workers. oliver cook in berlin is monitoring the international impact there. walk us through the updates over the weekend. >> let's remind where we are going through this weekend. on friday, for the coming out of the side of the union. record profits in the form of record contracts. we heard from the president of the union. not impressed. question, percent is a no go for you.
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>> definitely. we made a very clear to the companies. >> no go, there were reasonably productive conversations over the weekend with ford, gm was at the table on sunday but there is still a very massive void between where the two parties are and it is hard to see how there will be a resolution anytime soon. >> i had to jump in, ali. the strike story is fascinating. what will the white house do with this? was there to trip dish deploying a team led by julie sue. this will help facilitate negotiations to be there as a media moderator and to be actively involved. the union very deliberate they said they will be strategic about how they deployed the strikes. in the sense that it hit three states, three companies. it has been a shallow strike.
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only 13,000 people. this is a union of 150,000 people. what they are contending with is the strike fund. that will be slowly about as people go on strike. if every single worker were to strike. the way they are building it out, this is something that could last for quiet sometime. >> that will be something of course. oliver in berlin. all over all of the updates. we have two more for you. we will start with this internet comedy based in johannesburg. their ceo is stepping down. instead, they have an interim chief executive. it is unclear what the reasoning is there. or how long the interim chief will be in charge but for now,
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it is something we will be watching and of course the market open before-and-after. another major corporate story we are watching comes right back to the banking sector. they are talking about how much they will be re--- revisiting their strategy. this has been a pretty dismal summer when it comes to some of the recovery they were expecting. stockton has been lagging. they are seeing their cet1 ratio. of course i am more in that throughout the show. you can round up all the stories you need to know in this at addition of daybreak. subscribers can very easily type in da y ego. coming up, we go to the u.s., kevin mccarthy demands a percent spending cut for domestic agencies to avoid the u.s. government shutdown more on that next, this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪
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>> germany's foreign minister says the european union must reduce its reliance on china and linda burbach tells bloomberg how the region's has changed based on the global fallout from the war in ukraine. >> we have learned our lesson from our russian dependencies. i believe it is if you can be self reflective and say this was obvious and not the right way to go, we had such a high dependence on russian -- russian gas and oil but especially gasp that obviously in the past, the four government decisions that were not the right one.
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speaking of this as a purely economic thing, nothing to do with geopolitics. i was in a position back then and it was also at the peninsula for example where there was a source of this pipe coming through. too many people there. i could not only fear for our partners in the baltics but i said this was always the geopolitical dimension. i was always arguing before election that we have to see the action. we set a collision treaty. we formulated this before russian war. we would renew china strategy and after the invasion, the fall invasion, we not only were the strategy, this is limiting.
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>> what about chinese retaliation? >> yes. first of all, understanding that if you are bound to closely, it can endanger yourself. if you are having such a high dependency of a regime like in russia which is taking your own peace therefore, cutting down oil dependency from russia but also with regard to china, de-risking is -- no decoupling. you can't decouple interconnected world. a connected world is a way to peace. we should be able to defend ourselves, not be naive. being a partner in climate issues. being a competitor with china with new pet -- with new technology but also seeing we are systematic rivals and we
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have to protect our own vulnerability and this is where the commission president comes in to our critical infrastructure in europe but also in looking at outbound investment screenings. >> the german foreign minister speaking there. let's look at some of the other stories we are tracking from around the world. the death toll from devastating floods in eastern libya has surged past 11,000 in the city of durham alone. united nations estimates more than 10,000 people remain unaccounted for in the city after rare hurricane like storms slammed into the north african nation last week. almost a quarter of the entire population are either missing or confirmed dead. u.s. national security advisor jake sullivan and the chinese foreign minister have met over the weekend in malta. among the agenda items, a possible meeting between president biden and president xi at the apec summit in november.
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this comes at a quicker time in u.s. china relations. and elon musk has visited the turkish president in new york, spending about 45 minutes discussing artificial intelligence and a potential tesla factory in the region. spacex has also been working with turkey's space program to launch communication satellites. the meaning comes as world leaders begin to gather for the annual meeting of the united nations general assembly. and now to some news overnight from the united states. kevin mccarthy has made demands to hold off a government shutdown for a month. for more insight, we are joined by derek. you are reading the stories. kevin mccarthy has the social programs, really tight deadline and a fiscal calamity. walk us through the difference between this government shutdown and the debt ceiling debate we
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had just a couple of months ago. >> you are right to notice a lot of the similarities. it is sort of like if you have a hollywood movie and then the sequel is not what is good but it has some of the same notes. that is how i would look for an international audience at this fight here. it is not as serious as the debt limit fight. the debt limit fight was something that may have gone spectacularly wrong. this one is more annoying initially. it is quiet severe if you happen to be caught in the crosshairs. what you're talking about specifically is a funding lapse. a government funding lapse. the u.s. government runs on an october to september calendar. october 1 is the fiscal know your soap be fiscal new year to everyone out there. but it will be a very celebratory mood in washington. specifically in all of these places in the u.s. that have real connection to federal dollars.
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a lot of those dry up very quickly. the government has to go through. what is essential, what is not essential? the essential stuff, some of this continues but sometimes it reduces. it is a complicated sort of situation but basically, october 1, midnight, washington time, that is the deadline. >> kevin mccarthy loves to hammer on. >> talk to us about what can actually be done. one thing that both sides can agree on is some sort of short-term funding response. look at that actually look like? >> you would think so but the math isn't actually white so easy. kevin mccarthy is trying to figure out what he can get through the house to give him a little bit of a leveraging and -- leveraging edge. republicans are trying to figure that out. the current offer seems like it is going to be about one month
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stopgap spending bill. attached to it, border security money. the problem is the white house doesn't really want to do that. the senate doesn't either. they don't want the republican border security bill because it contains a whole bunch of things they don't like. the senate also wants to put some money in for ukraine. there is some disaster aid money that could ride along with this as well. it is a little bit more complex. mccarthy has a math problem and he could lose at most for republican votes. just on statements on x, i counted since his plan came out, or than for people who said they don't like this plan from within the house republican conference chair so it is not quickly or how the math goes here, how you get to the number that gets you across the line. i'm sure as a fundamental baseline that there are the votes to fund the government in some form. if you get democrats and
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republicans working together. right now, that is not really on the cards as an opening play. remember when we were talking about the debt thing and i said at point, sometimes you go now, no, no, yes. we are on the first one or two nose on that cycle. >> i love that you say kevin mccarthy has a math problem because naturally americans are known for their math skills. aren't they? something we will be watching very closely from around the world. we can walk what is really a crucial story for the u.s. government. it doesn't really feel like that. perhaps a little bit of a different approach from australia. we will bring you all the details, what that actually looks like. we will dive into it next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> welcome back. this is daybreak europe. let's get to some corporate stories from around the world. foxconn plans to double its investment and employment in india. highlighted in accelerating manufacturing shift away from china and a linkedin post. the taiwanese company says it plans to double the size of his business. the plant is likely to assemble iphones. this will create 100,000 jobs. that comes after the lost tax-free shopping for visitors. jonathan says the gap has opened up.
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>> territory sales are steadily increasing over the past couple of years. it is a good trend. there is a gap between our tourist in mainland europe versus the u.k.. we will keep communicating that. you would have been an opportunity to bring more tourists in. >> the bradberry ceo talking about the changing landscape in front of the fashion. let's get a quick check on the rockets. we look at the futures trading, you are seeing an accelerated bed. we will call this down .1%. not releasing all that pressure
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that perhaps a lot of people would expect after the pain you saw this weekend or at least the pushback from european leaders when it comes to president lagarde and the ecb policy there. i think that bread on the screen is really coming from the asian session. on the other hand, wraps a little bit of a defensive tilt. s&p futures higher by .2%. tech underperforming this time around. that is an interesting dynamic given that asian stocks are actually lower. let's explore that dynamic in the rest of the show. shall book becomes the new governor of the reserve bank of australia and its first female chief. more on that next. stick with us. this is bloomberg. hi, i'm katie, i've lost 110 pounds on golo in just over a year. golo is different than other programs i had been on because i was specifically looking for something that helped with insulin resistance. i had had conversations with my physician indicating that that was probably an issue that i was facing and making it more difficult
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quest good morning. this is daybreak europe. i am kriti gupta in london. let's get to the stories that that set your agenda. equities dragging lower. traders standing by for a big week of central-bank decisions including the united states, u.k., japan and a slew of others from around the world. the united auto workers union ejects 21% pay raise from stilettos as definitely a no go. the strike comes in as carmakers get another day as the team from the white house goes to detroit. and as world leaders gather for the yuan general assembly, the german foreign minister tells bloomberg europe needs to end its reliance on china. let's get a quick check on the markets here. we are already seeing some red on the screen. perhaps a result of what we are seeing in asia. right now, a lot of pressure on the futures down about .3%. future seem to have it easy.
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will that sarah more as u.s. session catches up? u.s. futures are higher. s&p futures higher by .2%. nasdaq futures dragging a little bit. what is interesting is the dynamic that tech is lagging. similar to what you saw in the asian session. went through getting closer and closer to $100 a barrel. higher by .6%. because $95 a barrel here. having a ripple effect into the currency here. they are actually strengthened against the dollar right now. the dollar the weakest in the g10 currencies. let's look at how asian markets are faring. april standing by in singapore. walk us through. >> we are seeing those asian stocks slipping into negative territory staying there for much of the session. this has to do with that tech decline on wall street last friday. that filter through into the asian session. the taiex is underperforming.
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there has been a week of big central-bank decisions. japan markets are shut today. we do have some important numbers out of the csi 300. just looking at the benchmark in the mainland. we slipped to the lowest level this year because the concern is really on the property sector. the sentiment is turning tail there and this is despite some signs of stabilization in the chinese economy. let's look at these property stocks. country garden is a key focus here. there is a deadline do on a u.n. bond extension. this is actually in negative territory. we are actually keeping our focus on evergrande after police detained some members of the wealth management unit. this could be a new phase in the default developer. the saga surrounding it. we we see more troubles for the
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real estate developer? it actually slept 25% on the session. he recouped some losses earlier and is still a negative territory as a comes back from the lunch break. >> we are tracking the asian markets. we think you as always. asian markets driving the train. hold your horses. all bets are off. a massive week for central banks. the boe on thursday and the boj on friday. for more acronyms i hope, valerie is standing by. let's start with the federal reserve here. we are not inspecting a hike. what sort of signals to the markets be watching? what sort of precedent does it set? that is the big message. the markets really watching what exactly they tried to message with their updated economic projections. that does include their dot plot. where they shift their dots
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higher? it is really here to stay. or perhaps he will sound a little bit dovish. will he mention other risks on the horizon and maybe move that threat of additional hikes out to the next year? the dot plot will be the key thing. they are expecting to go on hold. >> perhaps taking a covertly different approach. talk to us about the boe here. are we nearing a peak, is that a positive? >> that could be the surprise that they have in store when the bank of england meets on thursday. does he actually acknowledge that these are peak rates? does he follow the ecb playbook of last week? does he tell the market we have hit peak rates? this decision on thursday for the bank of england is made ever more complicated by the fact that we get a cpi print tomorrow
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. core inflation is not inspected to moderate very much. the lumber consensus has it taking down by only .1%. finally, we had to make of japan on friday. are they expected to hold interest rates at that negative level. they could continue to sit on that. will they push back on the market speculation that a tightening cycle could come possibly at the end of this year or the beginning of the next? >> we keep waiting for the boj to be the surprise. it hasn't yet. i wonder if you have jinxed it. we thank you for walking us through that story. we are monitoring this very closely, the reserve bank of australia has a new governor for the first time, it is a woman in the top job. the bank becomes the night leader. we kind of knew michelle bullock would be joining the rba. how different will it be in practice?
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>> in the near term, it will not be a lot different. by the near term, i mean the rest of this year. but come 2024, we are going to see a different central-bank with a separate monetary policy board. eight meetings instead of 11. press compasses after each meeting and then probably better messaging, better communication and improving the culture inside the reserve bank. definitely in terms of the composition, it will be a different institution. but also in terms of how it communicates. >> interesting to see those will be some of the top priorities. but when the current is going one way for central banks around the world, at the core this is what we are talking about. with the fed, the boj and the boe, how much do they diverge?
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at the core, everyone is trying to tackle inflation. much like the does she really have if you are dealing with this global current? >> that is right. inflation is one of the top priorities. it will be the key priority. this is something she said not too long back in one of her q&a sessions. she described inflation as too high in australia. closer to 5% right now. and the reserve bank mandate is to complete this. she really has the task to bring inflation down and we have seen four percentage points of interest rate hikes. this is less compared to what the fed has done. the rba has multiple -- has
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moved cautiously. it looks like we continue to be cautious about raising interest rates here. >> i think the big question for me is we are talking about raising interest rates. 5% no longer seems that high. i think that is a very valid point. let's talk a little bit about turning the boat. if you look at central-bank decisions around the world, the central bank of brazil i should say is going to be one of the very first to cut. shadow to another producer. if we start to see this kind of turning the boat or the ship, can the australian economy really deal with something as volatile as that? we think? class when the reserve bank started reserving interest rates, it looked like another 3% would be there. that was largely because australia's economy has really
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high debt. we have a household debt to income ratio of almost 200%. that was one of the reasons why it was believed the rba would not go very far. when they started taking it straight about 3%, people started talking about the session and the cash rate is at 4.1%. people are not talking about recession anymore because you kind of get some optimism from the u.s.. domestic data has also been authorized by the labor market as it continues to be strong. the property market has rebounded strongly. it does look like an economy that has absorbed these for business points of rate hikes and inflation is coming down as well. it kind of feels like the strategy so far has worked for the rba. >> we will see how long it does as we see commodity prices scan higher.
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$100 oil could be a positive for australia and it could be a negative. we think you as always. coming up, we go to the micro. socgen announcing its longtime underperforming stock. we will bring you the details next. this is bloomberg. ♪ meet the portable blender we can barely keep in stock. blendjet 2 gives you ice-crushing, big blender power on-the-go. so you can blend up a mouthwatering smoothie, protein shake, or latte wherever you are! recharge quickly with any usb port. best of all, it even cleans itself! just blend water with a drop of soap. what are you waiting for? order yours now from blendjet.com before they sell out again!
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>> >> think we are at the right level because rates to stop inflation and reduce inflation, to reduce inflation, we are on the right track i think. we should stick to that level of
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interest rates. it is the right level to reduce inflation. >> the french finance minister speaking with bloomberg's european correspondent maria today. france has been in focus over the last hour. so often has announced plans to increase efficiency, let's go to caroline cohen in paris. walk us through the top line of this morning's announcement. >> increased efficiency is the key word here when you look at these strategy plans. the new ceo of socgen this morning, they will hold their capital markets they are london. just four months after -- this had been -- they had been as subject for 15 years. they found that the stock had been underperforming. this could be a major driver for this.
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this ratio is a key measure of the final trends. in will be lifted to 13% from 12%. they are actually quaint conservative targets when it comes to revenue growth between zero and 2%. when the previous target was actually around 3% and also, very important, it comes to income ratio that will actually be below 60% in 2020 -- 2026. finally, no increase in dividends. they are maintained the payout ratio subject to 40 and 50%. quaint conservative targets here from the ceo. we will see how investors react. this could be a turning point in the years going forward.
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>> you say a turning point. i think to your point, some of these changes are very conservative. they seem very limited. how much of a difference will this actually make? what does it mean for the bank going forward? >> you are totally right. in fact, when you look at these challenges you can say only slight changes in terms of targets. some have said before this press release that the margin of maneuver was quaint limited because their capital is white low compared some peers. this is clearly the mandate that cuba has from the chairman. they say they want to boost the share valuation. the key word is efficiency. we could get -- they could get rid of some african units. likely they can get rid of some
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more. they could dispose of more assets. clearly cuba wants to tighten the belt at the french -- french bank. the new rule is that if you do business travel, it is a three day maximum with a minimum of four clients meeting. quaint hi and ambitious targets here to get some return on investment for business travel. we do not know whether there will be any of this going forward. no big wave of job cuts going forward. request that is probably music to a lot of people's ears. u.k. is seeing a lot of those jobs cuts. we thank you as always. to the broader european story, ukraine is sending empty ships to collect grain, this is the
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first time this to since is a passage deal collapsed. this is all over the commodity picture and soft commodities as well. talk to us a little bit about what this actually means for grain. have seen all this volatility priced into the soft commodities space. this particular move from these ukrainian ships, how much of an effect is it having? >> the big question here is how is russia going to respond to this? russia has said repeatedly that it will send rain ships to the ports and they could possibly be carrying weapons. it is russia's response we are looking out for now. for ukraine to move its crops, it has had to resort to complicated and more expensive ways to get that out. that is road, river and rail. ever since they visited the green deal in july which allowed
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for the safe passage of ukrainian great out of the black sea, it is repeatedly attacked facilities through the boxee. if the ships managed to get rain out, it could be a big win for ukraine. i doubt that russia is going to make this very smooth. >> talk to us a little bit about how this is actually traded. we are waiting for russia's response. at the time we were also talking about whether some sort of new grain there will be in negotiation. turkey at the core of that conversation and then in terms of the appetite to trade the stuff, is there any? >> when you look at the wheat futures market, prices have been bubbling around six dollars. that is primarily because of the harvest in the northern hemisphere. including russia. there is a rank -- grain going to the market. taking a little bit of heat out of the tension we are seeing in
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the black sea. looking forward, we are going to look at the harvest out of canada, argentina and australia and there is a bit of concern about dry weather had and what that might mean for crops. at the moment, there is enough grain in the market that is keeping prices depressed. >> is a really interesting dynamic. you saw this in the oil space. you have this concept of what happens when open interest has collapsed. ben is all over that story. i want to get a quick check on the commodity space. this is a really important story. as we talk about inflation and the stickiness of oil, this is something i want to bring to your attention. something that is creating a lot more pressure on refined products, things like diesel. this chart on your screen shows
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you that the oil price and the bond price are not actually in tandem. right now you are seeing a real split between the two of them. when those two lines really work together, higher oil means higher inflation and higher yield. that is no longer the case. the bond market isn't really pricing in the fact that a bond rally will lead to an inflationary story. that is going to be the thing that we dive into for the rest of the show, the rest of the day and likely the rest of the year. public confidence in the bank of england plunges to a record low. we will have more on that story next. this is . ♪
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>> the big change we have had is a lot more fiscal discipline from the government. that is a real plus.
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>> what i see is the u.k. government that recognizes the importance. >> for every hundred days, maybe there is five to 10 days where the u.k. and the eurozone can pull the u.s. around. i think in the long term, you still have to put him at the top of the list. >> guest speaking about the u.k. economic outlook. public confidence in the bank of england has plunged to a record about things to soaring interest rates and elevated inflation. that is according to their own survey. they are all over that story. let's start with the political responses specifically. when you're looking at labor, they have been trying to win
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over the business community. is it working? >> yes, there are two surveys to look up. those already and this mliv pulse surveys. they reckon that the opposition would actually be better for the pound. it makes you think about what a hard job they have had. he has been on his smoked salmon and scrambled eggs offensive. he has had to scale back on those nationalization plans. >> let's go to another key
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figure here. there is a little bit of a controversial policy. what do we know? >> he has been refusing to guarantee that that is not something he is going to do. labor won't raise capital gains tax. she also said that they were no longer plans to raise the top rate of tax. his plan is to grow the economy out of this public spending all that we are in at the moment. that sounds a lot like what the chancellor is saying in new delhi at the g20. he is also meeting emmanuel macron, the french president this week. we are speaking to the ceo here.
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assuming that it is going to be labored. that is what they are assuming and planning for. >> the competition really kicking into high gear. we thank you as always. a quick check on these markets as we go to the next hour of programming. it is worth remembering that the japanese markets are close today. the euro stock, 50 futures down. look at the u.s. time. that is where you are seeing a little bit of green on the screen. tom mackenzie will take you through the rest of the morning. this is bloomberg.
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