think that market today if you are looking at distressed in a narrow way which is by bond or by bank loan. i think prices and distressed are not reflective of the environment we are in today. there either artificially too high and if you think about the bank loan market, i think cro's, there's limited inventory and they have to be fully invested so there is no price comparison before selling. i think bank loan prices are high, you see the tale get a little bit wider but the average bank go from 94 to 97 and the tails go a little bit larger

from 3% to 6%. it is not really distressed. you overlay the asset liability that issuers have on the capital structures, recoveries on loans have been quite poor. you buy something at 70 and you wake up and there is an asset liability trade that gets done were a whole bunch of collateral is stripped out and alone trains debt -- trades down 50 points. i'm not sure i sear the -- see the clear opportunity in distressed today, given their feels like a technical uplift on prices and there is a lot of flexibility in the documents that create a lot of liquidity options for the issuer. >> there is some tension right now, 85% --matt: that was joshua easterly at 6th street, speaking

at the bloomberg global credit form in london. welcome to bloomberg markets. let's take a quick check of what's going on in the markets at this hour. we've had some amazing moves in rates today after the fed came out yesterday with more hawkish paws than had been anticipated. that pushes down equity indexes as well. the s&p 500 is down by more than 1%. well under the 4400 level. we see rates still rising but not to the levels we saw this morning. we were close to 450 this morning and now we are at 4.46 on the 10 year and that's lifting along the curve. the bloomberg u.s. dollar index is also taking off. we were at 1260 this morning and right now, we have backed up that and it's still one and a have points and nymex crude,

adding a little but it has come down from the highs we saw earlier this week. wti is trading at $89 and $.86 per barrel. as investors digest the fed decision from yesterday, former st. louis fed president jim bullard says that central bank may not be done hiking rates. >> the committee left the traditional rate hike this year in the dot plot i think that may be a good thing to do as insurance to make sure core inflation especially continues to come down. i think the risks are building that inflation could hang up at a higher level or even go higher based on the idea of a reacts a in the u.s. economy. matt: bloomberg economics and policy editor michael mckee tend -- conducted that interview this morning and he joins us now from d.c.. what does it look like to jim

bullard and the fed? are they nearing a soft landing here and being cautious to keep it that way? mike: certainly, the fed sees a soft landing. they can't put into so many words because they don't want to have to eat those words if something goes wrong. the forecast they gave us for growth over the next two years and lower unemployment rate certainly suggests they think a soft landing is the most likely thing. jim bullard was one of the most hawkish fed members in his latter years at the fed. he left just before the july meeting. at the june meeting, where they put together a dot plot, he suggested rates needed to go to 6.25%. he said maybe they don't need to go that i now but he sees the possibility of accelerating inflation given the fact that the economy is performing so strongly right now. matt: is the economy as strong

as it looks? we got great data on the labor market but we've had a number of people come on suggesting the labor market may not be as tight as we think. mike: it's hard to know. we will get more data coming up in about two weeks when we get the september payroll report. the payroll surveys were taken last week when the jobless rate fell to 201,000. it looks like we might see some strength in the labor market. real issue is not so much how many people are working as what they are getting paid to do it. if more people are getting paid more wages, does that become inflationary? we've seen wage gains start to slow, but they are still higher than what the fed considers to be sustainable. that will be the thing to watch from the unemployment/employment side. matt: thanks very much. let's get to the head of u.s.

rates strategy atsocgen. i'd love to get your take on what we saw yesterday. it was more hawkish than many expected. from the dot plots, only to cuts next year. 4 before that but they left in one hike by the end of this year, how do you rate it? >> the to cuts for next year definitely caught by surprise. i was expecting perhaps they will leave three cuts in for next year. the higher for longer theme is what the fed ultimately wanted to convey at the meeting yesterday. i think they succeeded in doing just that because the market is putting much pricing in the fed scenario as we speak even though it's just been a day. the market is not fully pricing in another hike but maybe that gets pushed out to january. for the most part, it's a very

shallow policy path for the next year. higher for longer is what they wanted to convey and they achieve that with the market pricing aligned with the fed. matt: what do they need to see before they make cuts? what prompts the first one? >> what they need to see is inflation durably on a trajectory toward their 2% target. more importantly, if you start seeing inflation head down but unemployment starts to rise meaningfully or we see a meaningful slowdown in growth in the u.s. and it's starting to look more recessionary, i think the fed will cut rates even if the inflation rate doesn't get to their 2% target. they just want to see sufficient progress toward their target. if they see a meaningful slowdown in the economy, tightening of credit conditions perhaps like we saw in the last

day, or corporate profit margins coming in under pressure, i think they will think about at least adjusting policy to orchestrate a soft landing. matt: do they make an adjustment without a prompt? if we get to 2% but the economy still growing and earnings growth is double digits, unemployment is under 4%, they have no reason to cut rates, right? >> yeah, and that's kind of the scenario they are laying out in the summary of economic projections. they are really calling for growth in the context of 1.5-2 percent. they expect inflation to come down to 2% by 2026. they expect only to adjust policy by 50 basis points by the end of next year to achieve that. in some respects, it feels a little too good to be true in my view. we really have to see how the

data pans out. a lot of what you see in the summary of economic reflections reflects the strength of the third quarter, not necessarily looking toward a meaningful slowdown in the fourth quarter or the upcoming quarters of next year. matt: while it's too good to be true, do you load up the truck with treasuries? 4.5% on the 10 year, the two-year at 5.1%. even if you don't get capital appreciation which i'm guessing you think we will, you will still get a fat return. >> you do but as we've learned in the last three weeks, if you went long yields at 10%, you will have experienced decent amount of market to market losses. if you are a buy-and-hold investor looking to get yield, you probably want to be in the front of the yield curve and you get a pretty decent return on a duration adjusted basis. if you are an investor that's

agnostic to the general mark to market volatility over the near term, then treasuries start to look attractive across the curve. matt: what is the argument for going longer and buying more duration? is there one from your perspective? >> there is if you are anticipating the u.s. economy to go into a recession, perhaps a mild recession but a recession in the middle of next year and in that scenario, you should start seeing treasuries trade much more in line with fundamentals and if there's a meaningful slowdown in growth, you should see a rally in treasuries on the back of that. matt: how close are you watching the autoworkers strike and how concerned are you about a potential government shutdown? >> those are two topics that we are very closely.

the impact of the automobile strikes is that there is not a deal that's been negotiated. it will be higher wages and margin compression for some of these industries who are already going through a lot of transformation because of ev's. then you have the government shutdown at the end of this month. depending on how quickly that gets resolved, i think you will have ramifications for furloughs as well as potential impact on growth. matt: thank you so much for joining us, great to get your perspective. she is the head of u.s. rates strategy at socgen. coming up, larry summers response to the fed's outlook following yesterday's decision. he is on wall street week this week so we will talk -- so he will talk with david westin. this is bloomberg. ♪

matt: this is bloomberg markets. former treasury secretary larry summers says there are too many variables from consumer spending to labor strikes and the potential government shutdown to rule out a u.s. recession amid the federal reserve rate hike pad. here is some of his conversation with david westin on wall street week. >> it is possible we will have the proverbial soft landing, but i think the risks that inflation will be worse than what they say are very real. you've got the uaw strike, you got oil prices having spiked, you've got a budget deficit that this year will approach 8% of gdp if you take out the student loan accounting. and you've got a variety of

technicals like health insurance that are getting ready to kick in. i think you've got real concerns on the inflation side. at the same time, you've got concerns on the others that the consumer, since labor day, it's not much time yet but looks like the consumer is slowing a bit, delinquencies are starting to rise. there is some wall of maturity that will come due over the next year. it's certainly possible that it will work out as the fed has it with inflation getting back to 2 with only negligible increases in unemployment. that strikes me as more of a goal than a forecast. dani:avid: you mentioned the uaw strike in the risk for inflation coming out of that. what do make of where we are? i'm not sure if these parties

can come to you. they seem to be almost opposed on some very basic things. >> it's always easier to compromise on numbers. then it is like how big is the wage increase going to be than it is on principles like what will happen to the battery factories? it's easier to compromise on numbers like the size of pension packages then it is on questions like changing the separate wage structure for recently hired workers. they still got questions of principle as well as questions of numbers separating them. this may go on for a while. i think the two big questions are, what will the spill over be to the larger economy and the midwestern economy including through price increases, if cars

get scarce and what that means for automobile and used-car prices. i also think there is some real questions here about when you have these highly publicized labor conflicts and you was likely to be a big number for the wage increase, i suspect that will give a lot of workers in a lot of places some pretty big ideas and that may be a source of wage pressure as well. that complicates the issues around inflation. this is a very difficult thing to manage and i suspect it's going to be one of those things that will be with us for quite a while. matt: i want to focus more on the uaw and bring in david westin and a native michigander. summer seems to be very much,

it's easy to say we will give you 21% pay rise or whatever they end up on but it's hard when union workers say what will we build at the brampton facility after dodge and chrysler are gone? they don't have any products lined up for next year. david: you know this so well and there is a fundamental issue here that goes beyond the numbers. most people are talking about this. there is a number on 25 and 35 on the wages but the hard part is the joint ventures for the batteries. are those unionized or not? what happens to moving jobs to write to work states and what happens with so many other issues. what about part-time labor? they don't want to hire part-time labor at a lower rate but there were work issues that are threatening to the unions but also to the automakers. matt: i will be fascinated to

see what steve ratner has to say because he was the cars are during the great financial crisis jesse was a car czar during the great financial crisis. they gave up a lot to ensure the stability of those companies after they were bailed out but many people will say they had to get bailed out because the union drove such a hard bargain going into the financial crisis. david: steve will be the first to say they need to make up for some of the lost time because he was there getting the concessions from unions and he admits it has to shift but how do you not go back to the bad old days when you had so many job positions and companies had no flexibility at all? that's the risk for the auto industry and the economy. matt: what are you hearing about the government shutdown? we will be apoplectic in the media but how did it -- how does it affect the real economy? daqvid: if it last for a long time, it will affect the real

economy. how will we get our jobs numbers? right now, i don't know. it's worse than i remember seeing. you remember the day we had newt gingrich shut things down in the mid-90's which was pretty ugly. right now, the republicans themselves don't be able to agree with what they want to come out with. i'm not sure how you get to yes when the other side does not know what it wants. matt: that's absolutely a problem. thanks very much for that, wall street week host david westin, don't miss his full conversation with larry summers as well as steve ratner at 6 p.m. tomorrow night right here on bloomberg television. this is bloomberg. ♪

matt: this is bloomberg markets. let's turn back to london and the bloomberg credit forum where bloomberg's prayer -- claireruckin is speaking with the vice chair of global leveraged finance at bnp paribas. >> there will be opportunists, there is more demand for paper and not as much supply. where does pricing go and where does documentation go? the banks had to claw back on investors for protections. is that going to get worn down again? do you see a supply/demand imbalance? >> liz deal with the pricing bit first. pricing is changing almost by the day. that's a function of demand for paper. what we've seen this week where we've seen tight pricing on this

afternoon when we saw tight pricing, there are great credits. it's not every deal. we are seeing some tight pricing come through with good credit. on the dots points, i think that will move slowly, more slowly. i think we are still finding out how some of the documents work and what it means and what flexibility is in there. some of that flexibility will help certain credits which need a little bit of space to be able to manage an operational underperformance. maybe a for your document will help everybody compared to the last crisis in 07 and 08. i think pricing will be very dynamic whether it's margin with some trades this week as well as sub 400 basis points pricing. the actual document, that will probably be a little slower to

move in terms of tightening in the same way we are talking about pricing but it depends on thebuy side. the banks will push to win the deals. the market is super competitive again. we will push to be able to deliver the best terms to our issuer clients. we know we have to look after the investor client as well but it's with the buy side to dictate what they can and will live with. >> how much dialogue is there with the buy side before you bring these? how much certainty do banks want to have before they launch? >> there is the pre-marketing process that are quite formalized. it's down to the quality of your syndicate investor. they know from constantly speaking to the buy side and if you are in market a lot, you're getting that feedback all the time from a variety of sources

in terms of mixture of investments but also different credit. as we see from the dots, that was the same in 2021. you go out with a dock and you get pushback on points and you tweak it and it settles where it's meant to settle and then you move on and that's the same process now. >> we are seeing more dell's and pricing tightening and opportunistic plays and we are hearing about m&a, a conducive environment and banks seem to be in back and investors seem to be back. what about private credit? are banks going to be able to compete with private credit? matt: that's our global credit form out of london. we will talk about the european commission executive vice president of the european commission about the challenges

facing the block as it tries to meet its green deal goals later in the program. it's an interview you don't want to miss as it is climate week. this is bloomberg. ♪ that first time you take a step back. i made that. with your very own online store. i sold that. and you can manage it all in one place. i built this. and it was easy, with a partner that puts you first. godaddy. fabulous surroundings... but everyone's looking at their phones for financial insights from merrill. is he hailing a ride to the concert hall? no. he's making sure his portfolio and retirement plans work in harmony. they want to adopt a child and build a new home. so they're talking numbers with their merrill adviser. she's not researching her next role. she's learning how to handle market ups and downs without the drama. personalized advice so impressive your money never stops working for you with merrill. a bank of america company.

amber: welcome to bloomberg markets. matt: at this hour, after the hawkish pause heard round the road yesterday, we see rates rising in stocks falling. the s&p 500 is down about 0.9% so off of session lows but a decent drop area the 10 year yield is off of session highs. we were close to forfeited his morning and now we are looking at 446.37 and the highest level since 2007.

it's been quite a while since we've seen these levels in the bloomberg dollar index is also rising. it had been much higher this morning at almost 1260 and now we're looking at 1255 and nymex route only up $.14 -- crude only up 14 cents. brent not near the highs we saw earlier this week. amber: one other story we are tracking is tensions between india and canada being further fanned today as it appears india has suspended operations at application centers in canada. in the last hour, the canadian prime minister reiterated the seriousness of the allegations that the indian government agents were behind the assassination of a prominent canadian. >> we call upon the government of india to work with us, to take seriously these allegations

and to allow justice to follow its course. amber: meanwhile, the indian prime minister has yet to comment but government officials have called the allegations absurd. here is what the indian ministry of external affairs spokesperson had to say earlier this -- earlier today. >> these allegations were rejected. it's pretty clear. i think it's the same response some of the elves raised but yes, they were rejected. amber: moments ago, the national security adviser in the u.s. jake sullivan speaking to reporters saying the u.s. is in close contact with canada and india. on the back of this, let's bring in the bloomberg opinion columnist. it's interesting to hear the voice of the united states in this because many suggest this is an awkward position for the united states, close allies with

canada and troubles with china but not trying to ruffle feathers with india at this point. >> yes, it is a conundrum for joe biden. the president has made developing a stronger relationship with india the centerpiece of his asia policy if you can call it that. this is really very awkward. it appears from plenty of reporting that justin trudeau first tried to get the u.s. and the u.k. to say president biden to intervene with prime minister modi on this well before the g20 which was earlier in the summer. he brought up the assassination and wanted to get some help with getting justice from the indians. that was pushed back in the

reporting suggests the white house as to trudeau to lie low on this and not make a big fuss before the g20 summit in delhi. the white house has already donemohdi a big favor by keeping a lid on this while the summit was taking place. clearly, trudeau feels he has no options, that he has to bring this out into the open because he tried everything else. peace tried to do this through diplomacy and intervention for mutual friends but it has not worked. now he feels like he needs to come out into the open and as you showed, he is doubling down on this and not backing off. amber: he is not backing off at the same time he is talking about being calm and levelheaded about it. the allegations are very serious. do you think the u.s. will be forced to step up in more of a material way here? >> i cannot see how the u.s. can avoid that. if trudeau keeps pushing on

this, then biden is going to have to address it either directly or at a higher level within his administration. this cannot just be left on the sidelines if trudeau is pushing it to the middle. canada is america's closest ally literally and figuratively. they -- there is in norma's trade partnership with long historic ties and india is a very large market that joe biden wants to open up more and more for the u.s. it is also a strategic partner in asia. it is not an equal relationship. the relationship with canada is far deeper and far more meaningful and i can't see how if trudeau keeps pushing this button that. joe biden can remain silent matt: for those not steeped in the separatist movement, there is a great primer on the bloomberg terminal. you can read that there's been violence on both sides.

they attacked one of the sikhs holiest places and they ascend -- assassinated in dear -- endura gandhi and bluebay present -- a passenger highline. is it likely we will see a separate seek state? >> far from it, i grew up in india in the 70's and 80's and the movement was at its height. there was a lot of energy and momentum behind this movement c foralistag which is the notion of a separate seek homeland. it does not enjoy it majority support from the sikh community, never mind the larger community. there was a lot of violence particularly during the 1980's which sort of got a response from the indian state and a response back with the assassination of indira gandhi. for india, a lot of these

separatists are terrorists were are supporting terrorism. the reality is that the movement no longer has the kind of energy it once did. it is far more active in far pockets of the sikh populations in canada and the u.k. than it is in the larger sikh population within india. even a place like in the and the u.k., it's a minority of the sikh community that still clings to this hope. there is not really, i would say, there is not a snowflake's chance in hell of it becoming a reality but there is still a small and determined trooper people who cling to it. matt: it is a fascinating but tragic story. thank you for talking to us about this impasse we seem to have reached. coming up, we will go back to markets andtmt. mark douglas joins us about

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sales tax automatically. avalarahhhhhh what if tax rates change? ahhhhhh filing sales tax returns? ahhhhhh business license guidance? ahhhhhh -cross-border sales? -ahhhhhh -item classification? -ahhhhhh does it connect with acc...? ahhhhhh ahhhhhh ahhhhhh amber: this is bloomberg markets. time now for our stock of the hour. email software marketed -- marketerklayvioh is climbing on it second day of tracing and rose as much is 32% in the software as a service company could set the pace for listings by other startups. matt: it's fascinating to me because it's part of the slew of ipos but in terms of their actual business, i'm not sure i

get it. i hear of them as a software or service company and someone says they do back door tech for apis which i don't know what is and now in email marketing company which doesn't sound as high tech. someone who understands more about this is mark douglas, ceo of platform and was named aztec innovator of the year. what does klavioh do? >> they are in email marketing company. i think it's a great company. they physically focus on small and medium-sized businesses and helping those companies to essentially find the right consumers and match the consumers with the companies that have the products those consumers might want. they've done this at scale in that market that shopify is good at. we've just seen a lot of growth from the company.

s&b is a great market and wall street generally underestimates companies that focus on that and that's what you see fromklaviyo. matt: from cricket or a grateful dead shirt and it says we will give you 15% off if you enter your emailed here, is that them? >> that can be part of it but once you buy from someone, the cost of them to sell you a second and third product can go down if you use emailed to reach back out to those consumers. once you buy from a particular company, you tend to get deals and emails around the holidays. all of that email is managed by a company like klaviyo to enable small businesses to increase the amount of revenue they get from each consumer. they help manage those campaigns and deliver those campaigns into your inbox and make it cost-effective for both sides, the consumer and the company

doing the emailed delivery. amber: i'm glad you brought up shopify. they are ak backer oflaviyo, they allow the small business to keep control so if i'm an advertiser looking to get close to people, i would choose google or facebook. is klaviyo the renegade other option for the small business to have control over the data and their customer experience? >> ironically, i think malm is more that business. we bring small businesses to television advertising so email marketing is an established technique. klaviyo made that accessible but they don't really compete with someone like google or meta or tiktok. they are strictly in that email lane.

malm malm rings them to television for the first time so they can advertise on tv and a performance minded way and drive revenue for small businesses and midsize businesses. matt: mountain is your company and your name to tech innovator of the year by adweek. what is the story there? is ryan reynolds ai? >> actually --matt: he's too good to be true. >> i've seen a lot of ai based on ryan reynolds. matt: he is one of your partners? >> he is our chief creative officer and is part of the team at mountain. he is clearly part of the company. i'm kind of embarrassed to say but the reason i was made tech in the desk innovator is because television has been the domain of only large companies and

performance marketing, the small and midsize businesses that just want to find the next consumer, they were totally relying on google admitted to do that in the past. now they can use mountain to reach those same consumers and do it on television for the first time. that's a huge innovation and its why mountain was named and me in particular, tech innovator of the year. we are proud of that because we put a lot of effort in that. the company has run tremendously since we launched our performance debut. amber: thanks so much. he is the mountain ceo. we will take a quick break and coming up, the european commission executive vice president discusses the green deal as culture wars put the goals at risk. this is bloomberg. ♪

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matt: this is bloomberg markets. according to our next guest, the european commission will stand firm on its climate objectives while continuing support for the transition to net zero munitions -- emissions. is the european vice president for the european green deal and this is one of the most fascinating topics there is an thanks for coming into the bloomberg studios. we have just seen the u.k. weaken a bit in its commitment. it now will not stop ice car sales in 2030 and they will go back to 2035. will we see that slight happen in the eu or anywhere else because we haven't seen the tipping point reached in terms of ev sales? >> i think for the europeans,

it's clear we are staying the course. we do not need a stronger argument than what we have seen, unprecedented floods and fires caused by disasters and what we hear from the business community is to have clarity and predictability so they can make a business plan so we are starting very intense rounds of industrial roundtables and we want to talk to representatives of the industry most affected by the green transition and how to make sure we will work together in the investment in climate is an investment and growth and the future. matt: you have a 2035 date set for zero emission vehicles only. do you think everybody will get on the same page with you? some countries were earlier and some part -- in some countries were later. >> we would love to see a global

shift but at the same time, i am realistic that it would be too difficult. we definitely want to lead by example. europe has been on board for quite some time and has been a pioneer. we believe it gets a technical advantage to our industry to be first. i believe more and more countries will join us in the whole week in europe, we've been preaching after what has happened over the last couple of years, we need to speed up a many to up our game when it comes to the ambition and use all the available technology to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and be prepared for the future. amber: there is the environmental imperative to hit these targets and goals. there is also the economic environment we find ourselves in

which is inflation and dealing with high energy prices already. is that part of the pushback and have you take that into account in implementing this? it could push prices even further hired. >> indeed, in europe, we went through too many crises. we went through covid-19 but also the impact of the illegal russian aggression of russia against ukraine. we are paying very high cost for energy and we are energy dependent on russia so we have to do many things at the same time. we learn how dependencies are costly and what we are focusing our attention on [indiscernible] we want to rely more on indigenous sources of energy which for europe is green, wind, solar energy and all the clean

energy technologies. we see the reticence of the nuclear as well. not to be so reliant on the imports from abroad but be able to say if it comes to the energy, we have much more operating power than we had before. we have to make sure that we also engage the public more intensively before. very often, the french politicians are blaming current economic conditions on the green deal and we know this is just a comp violation of the aftershocks from the crisis i was just referring to. we have to communicate and work within the system and communicate better to our cities to make sure they know it's an important investment in our future. amber: you mentioned the invasion of ukraine by russia. i wonder if that works in your favor to demonstrate the need

for energy security in the eu, especially where we see reports of russia banning exports on gasoline and diesel. >> absolutely, i think it was a very tough wake-up call from one day into another to shift the energy supplies to europe. we had to reevaluate the whole energy network in the european union. we are -- we now have them flowing in different directions than before. at the same time, you have seen energy prices increased dramatically, the output of renewable energy from solar and wind and nuclear energy is making it back and all of this to a great extent accelerated by the fact that we realized the dependencies are very costly and we definitely do not want to be

dependent on supplies from russia. matt: we've seen the commission opening an investigation into chinese ev's and i'm wondering if there's been any calls for investigations into other green transition beneficiaries out of china? when you look into wind turbine companies looking to export from china? >> at this stage, the decision was suggested we start this investigation with ev supplies because we want to get to the bottom of things. we are for free trade. free-trade also has to be fair. we are for competition matt: i feel like president says things like that. is everybody getting protectionist? >> i don't think europe is getting protectionist. we are a super open economy. we are letting all major competitors. that's not the case in china. it was not us who introduced the

inflation reduction act. here, i think we have a clean track record but i want to make sure our entrepreneurs are competing within europe in the. global markets under fair conditions we want to investigate if subsidies are legal. we want to be sure we will be pushing for a globally fair trading condition. if it comes to the wind industry, we have intense contacts with them. there is a lot of challenges linked with increased cost of raw materials and the cost of operations. . inflation is still very high we want to make sure the message from the european commission is clear. we want the european industry to prosper to prosper in europe and make sure we are improving on the continent. matt: great to have you in the studio.

that was the european commission executive vice president over the eu green deal. i am matt miller, this is bloomberg. ♪

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romaine: post-powell hangover as investors we calculate -- recalibrate the fed calculus. katie: i am katie greifeld and we are kick you off to the closing bell here and in the u.s. and it is not too pretty. scarlet: third straight -- romaine: a third straight day of the clients for major u.s. equities. you should point out that this is global -- we should point out that this is global in