tv Bloomberg Technology Bloomberg September 22, 2023 12:00pm-1:00pm EDT
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announcer: from the heart of where innovation, money, and power collide in silicon valley and beyond, this is "bloomberg surveillance" with caroline hyde and ed ludlow. caroline: i'm caroline hyde in new york. ed: and i'm ed ludlow not in san francisco. this is "bloomberg technology." caroline: we will dig into microsoft's deal with activision. ed: talks progress with ford. caroline: plus, iphone 15 hits
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the shelves around the world. we will get the read on the state of demand for the new product. but let's check in on the markets. if you were not standing in line in central park, maybe you are looking at the new music. upwards of one percentage point on the s&p 500. we are seeing buying on the debt market. six basis points to the downside on the 10-year after it hit a 10-year high. we are seeing what is a little bit of tentative purchasing in bitcoin. only up 0.1%. what is driving this is because the data looked worse than usual and slowing in terms of business spending.
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data points showing the fed may be does not have to hike so much. or is it u.s.-china? are we starting to see these meetings with the u.s. treasury department between senior level government officials in china and the u.s. help the relationship? some of the internet related names trading up. what are you doing on the micro? ed: tim cook here for the launch of the iphone 15. . it has gone on sale. apple up 1.4%. whether it is in direct reaction we will discuss later with mark gurman. the other piece of breaking news has been the uaw is expanding its drug against gm and stellantis, but not ford. ford shares up 2.5%. gm flat. stellantis higher despite the stalemate between the unions and those automakers that are transitioning to ev. there is concern about jobs. the other big story is out of
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the united kingdom. the markets authority has essentially greenlight microsoft's $69 billion purchase of activision. they looked at the compromise, which is to sell cloud gaming, streaming rights to ubisoft -- the french based developer. earlier we had the ubisoft ceo to react to that decision. >> the content creation remains with activision, but the ability for ubisoft to take independent decisions about how that is distributed through third parties. previously, microsoft could limit the distribution. that does not happen now. that is all within the unilateral control of ubisoft. caroline: cma ceo there. mark bergen is standing by in london. we have months to go until it is formally greenlight, but you think we could read the tea
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leaves that this is good to go? mark: my impression is that microsoft hopes by october 18. these things, as always, are up in the air. certainly, in the u.k. and europe. ed: at the beginning of the summer i don't think anyone thought this deal was going to go through. they overcame the regulatory hurdles in the u.s. now the u.k. cma was the final hurdle. what was the cma's argument or commentary on why they felt ubisoft was a good enough compromise? mark: this is an interesting concession. from my understanding, they are basically looking for a third party that is not microsoft that could be making these decisions around cloud gaming. other companies like google have tried and will probably continue to try.
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having given microsoft -- it feels like giving microsoft control of that, if you have ubisoft involved, you have this third-party french company that can sort of deny the ability for microsoft to manipulate the market. caroline: brad smith comes out saying they are reworking toward the october 18 deadline. about what a different environment. this has been a year and a half since they wanted this $95 a share deal done. what changed? it is still on the business basis. is it about mobile gaming? mark: my impression is there is an armchair political analysis who was just saying the cma is the only organization in the u.s. and the eu -- which is typically more willing to block these deals -- and gave the green light. what is happening in two months in london is the prime minister
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is holding this summit around ai and a focus on safety, but also trying to build out the u.k. as a home to innovation. he was seeing the messaging from microsoft that if he blocks the deal, it is counterproductive. that probably was one of the factors in this redirection. and i am sure we have done some excellent reporting on what went on behind the scenes. we saw this morning the activision price is back to where it would have been initially paid, which means lawyers made a lot of money the last year and a half. caroline: don't they always? mark bergen, thank you very much. let's talk about what is helping happening elsewhere. the auto workers union has made real progress with ford. let's bring in gabby.
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we try and put the tech lens on this and you did it expertly last time. and how much ev transition is an issue. why do you think that is part of why ford is making progress? gabby: ford has had a better relationship with the uaw than gm or stellantis. they spend about $1 billion more on labor than gm or stellantis. they have fewer temporary workers. that is the key difference. there is a second-class of workers in america's auto plants. that is the temp workers that start at $16 an hour and top out at $20 an hour. if you are full-time, you start at $18 and you can top out at $32. ford was already there, but they are making concessions. they agreed to cost-of-living
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allowances, basically, inflation protection. that went away in 2009 when gm and chrysler went bankrupt. ford agreed to put it back. another key thing is shawn fain said, for the first time in history, they have the right to strike over plant closures during the course of the four-your contract. that is big. if you think about the ev transition and the push for lower cost and lower labor costs, there has been a lot of new auto plants coming up in mexico. all three companies are making electric cars in mexico. the mustang mach-e is made in mexico. ram has their new electric vans being made in mexico. the uaw, i think, sees the writing on the wall and they are really pushing hard to stop that.
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ford they have made progress. i do not know if they can pull that off with gm or stellantis. ed: shawn fain's argument has been billions from the inflation reduction act is going into the infrastructure. the companies can take that. he is saying the labor has to go with it. you have to take that money and invest in the workforce. net-net, do ev's require the same number of jobs as a combustion engine? gabby: there has been studies that suggest no, they require fewer workers. if you think about the transmission you see in a combustion engine. but i argue we do not have a clear picture on that. it is early days and there are new jobs coming up. look at the billions of dollars
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the companies are making to build battery plants in the united states. gm is bringing more of their powertrain work in house so they can have a place for union workers to go. stellantis has talked about that as well. the question is what kind of jobs will those jobs be? that question is crucial to the uaw members. it is crucial also to our politics. you saw former president trump is coming to detroit next week. this morning, shawn fain invited president biden to visit the picket line. whether or not these future ev jobs are good is critical not just to the uaw and these workers, but also it is going to be a huge issue in our presidential election for the coming year. ed: gabby coppola, so good to have you here on
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"bloomberg technology". coming up, the broader health of the tech sector denise chisholm. i love having her on the show. this is "bloomberg technology". ♪ sweat isn't sweet. it's salty. lmnt. more electrolytes. zero sugar. you feel the difference when you get it right. stay salty. fabulous surroundings... but everyone's looking at their phones for financial insights from merrill. is he hailing a ride to the concert hall? no. he's making sure his portfolio
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caroline: what a week whether you are looking at the fed, the u.n., ipo windows. but whether you are also looking at money being drawn out of the stock market. the s&p having the most funds come out since december, according to merrill lynch. let's dig into whether that is coming out of the tech sector. denise chisholm is with us. great to have time with you. i am interested to when we have
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seen a hard selloff, today we study. what do you make of these valuations? what do you make of a nasdaq that was almost oversold, down almost 30? denise: when you look at the short-term volatility it is not a surprise given the strong rotation we have seen in the overall market. a little bumping around over the short term is not a surprise given the strength of the move. history can help when you step back. not that the past is 100% predictive, but the stronger that cyclical rotation into economically oriented sectors, the more likely it is to continue. the reason behind that is it is more likely that when stocks have moved, and strange as it seems, when earnings are contracting, stocks more often than not get it right and earnings do recover. and then the risk/reward for the
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cyclical sectors like technology is still positive. ed: let's play a game of technology risk factor bingo. you have the ipo window, we had china, the fed, and then economic data in the 24 hours that followed that said the fed is going to stay the course. what is bingo for you? what is the biggest factor you are thinking about as it relates to attack? denise: it all has to come back to earnings. ed: i did not even have that one, sorry. [laughter] denise: that is my pick for bingo -- earnings. when you think about interest rates -- and i think people think they are correlated to technology stocks, and it is not to say they are not -- but when you think about interest rates, it is a shifting correlation. the why matters more than the level. meaning when rates are rising and growth is accelerating, the technology sector overall really has had little problem with
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higher rates. the problem comes in when you have higher rates and lower growth. that was where we were in 2022. i think you could be looking at a very changing correlation where rates and the fed were the only variable you cared about to a situation where that might be more or less in the rearview. earnings needs to be the focus. if earnings are going to recover, interest rates and even valuations is much less predictive. caroline: what is so interesting is i am interested in where you think -- earnings are not upon us until october 13. jp morgan tends to kick things off. we have got a couple of weeks. we just had a name big in your town come to the market. it is now trading at $33 versus pricing but where do we look for the investment opportunities
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within technology? it all seemed to be about ai at one point. denise: i do not know if it was as much about ai. we saw the move in the stocks. that is more a forward earnings story. when i looked at the historical pattern, really, the historical pattern is fairly typical when you see an earnings contraction and the stocks will be for earnings growth does. that is the trickiest part about looking at multiples or valuations to see if whether or not this move is done. more often than not trough earnings is coincident with peak multiples. that is not a great predictive factor when you look at fallen earnings. the biggest moves you have seen in the technology sector from a forward perspective is in semiconductors and software. i think that is the area of the market that investors would
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qualify as expensive. the problem with that expensive is that it is usually not a problem historically provided earnings recover. there is valuation support within technology and that is more in the hardware sector. it is a little bit across the board. the catalysts are slightly different. for valuation support you do not have the earnings momentum other areas have, but the places you have earnings momentum, you do not have valuation support, but that is not necessarily negative. ed: learnings from the earnings window, you think about nvidia and apple. 20% of sales coming from china and they were both talking about long-termers. risk. what does your research tell you about the risk in china? denise: i think we have had a lot of risks in a lot of sectors over a lot of years.
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when you look back on the historical data -- and we have data back to 1962 -- margins have been higher and higher. this secular trend has been consistent, which is not to say they will not be risks in the market. i am the wrong person to ask because what i focus on is not the things that could go wrong and trying to discount that back to present or future earnings. i concentrate around what is being discounted in the stock market? we have seen over the last year this tricky scenario where stocks can advance rapidly despite the fact there is bad news. that is the wall of worry. when you think about risk from china, how do i know if that is a wall of worry issue or real earnings hit? i think instead of trying to figure out whether or not it is, is to think about what the stocks have discounted. ed: let's end on a happy note.
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i wanted to ask about boston and for you to give a shout out to the tech sector in boston. denise: i will definitely give a shout out to boston. ed: short and sweet. we love it. [laughter] denise chisholm, thank you. caroline: all eyes on a global tech story. let's go over to what we have been seeing closer to home. i cycled past the new york shop, store, and america, of apple. the new iphones are on deck. tim cook was in town. the lines were enormous. what does that signal about the appetite for these new phones? let's have a look at the shares of intel. ed: we are now flat. we are flat on intel. we had been lower. they have been hit with a $400 million fine by that you who say x80 cpu had issues.
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we are now flat this friday. this is "bloomberg technology" . ♪ ♪♪ we're not writers, but we help you shape your financial story. ♪♪ we're not an airline, but our network connects global businesses across nearly 160 markets. ♪♪ we're not a startup, but our innovation labs use new technologies to help keep your information secure.
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ed: time for talking tax. the logistics arm of alibaba's filing for its hong kong ipo as soon as next week. this would make it among the first of the chinese tech firm's units to go public. the company citing a raise of $1 billion in the share sale. the biden administration is limiting expansion in china by chip companies getting federal funds to build plants in the u.s.. this as the chips program office is giving out $75 billion in loans. amazon will run ads on its prime
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video service in key markets to help offset rising costs, following the example of other streaming platforms looking to further monetize the content. the company says ad supported streaming will be the default on prime video in the u.s., u.k., germany, and canada starting early next year. caroline: another one bites the dust. the iphone 15, those watches went on sale today in the latest test for resilient consumer demand. we are going to see how strong the start has been. let's bring in mark gurman. i cycled on my bike path past the one in central park and the lines were enormous. that is typical, right? mark: we are seeing lines longer than we did the last few years. we had a few pandemic years, so that sucked the wind out of lines at apple stores. but clearly, the lines are bigger the past two years based on everything we are seeing from
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mumbai to sydney to japan to los angeles. clearly, there is more momentum here. i think some of the reason is maybe these people tried to preorder online but quickly met with the delays into mid-november or later. they had no choice if they wanted one on day one. clearly, there is a strong amount of momentum for the new pro phones. ed: here is the question. the holiday season is key. do you buy it now or do you wait? we call it iphone 15 but there are four handsets to choose from. pro, promax, or base model? mark: i think the promax is especially important this year. they removed the 128 gigabytes tier, which was the base for the phone. that was $1100. now they are starting at $1200 by eliminating that tier and starting with a 260 gigabytes model. it has a bigger battery and a
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bigger display and the new 5x zoom for the telephoto lens. you will see more people upgrade to that bigger size for the extra camera improvement. caroline: great to have your expertise. we appreciate it. coming up, one of europe's largest cryptocurrency asset managers, coinshares, expanding in america. we will be speaking with the ceo, next. from new york and san francisco, l.a., or wherever you are on this day, this is "bloomberg technology". ♪
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ed: welcome back to "bloomberg technology". i'm ed ludlow in new york city. caroline: one last day. on caroline hyde. let's get a quick check on the market. we are up one percentage point on the nasdaq. there are some catalysts whether it be weaker economic data, meaning the fed could hold the rest of the year, but we get over the federal reserve hump day and move toward buying in the 10-year. we have been at highs for years on out but currently at 4.44. a little bit of appetite having seen the yields push wider.
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i am interested in the china stories. krane almost up 4%. maybe tensions are easing between the u.s. and china. there is going to be working group, discussions at the treasury level between the u.s. and china. could that be easing the overall heated conversation? moving onto the individual movers. pdd doing well. meta looking good. warner bros. discovery not a huge amount of news lines. down 3%. maybe we look toward whether those striking actions between the writers could be alleviated on this day of discussion. ed: another favorite risk asset of choice is bitcoin. i just checked. it is almost at $27,000 per token. one of europe's largest cryptocurrencies, coinshares, is looking to expand in america with the launch of a hedge fund division.
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fortunately with us is jean-marie mognetti, coinshare'' ceo. one imagines there is demand on the others for such an offering. jean-marie: thank you for having me. we started our journey in europe . it is the largest management company in crypto. we focus our journey in europe and it is time to bridge into the u.s. we just want to go into the u.s. for traditional etf programs and trying to find something different. we have been trading our hedge fund business before that. it is time to go back to our roots and offer the u.s. market a hedge fund offering. especially when everyone is living in the u.s. caroline: ok. you are taking a controversial
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move because people are exiting because they are worried about regulation. perhaps people building their businesses elsewhere. what are investors saying? jean-marie: i am not sure if it is controversial or contrarian. caroline: that's better. jean-marie: when we started our journey, i guarantee we are contrarian. it is part of our dna to boo be doing this kind of move. our game is how do we bring this product to the u.s. they have been available to u.s. investors but this is the first time we can bring this to a u.s. audience. there is appetite in the u.s. there is lack of availability in the u.s.
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there is few players. bringing diversity and different thinking is a great advantage. caroline: is it generally going to be exposure to bitcoin and the clearly not expected to be securities? jean-marie: it is liquid. everything we do is 100% liquid. it is liquid investments, monthly redemption, monthly subscriptions. easy to invest. at the end of the day you have to be able to follow market capitalization and liquidity. we are going to focus on bitcoin . ed: the fundamental question, whatever corner of the investing universe you are in, is what is the value of holding bitcoin in a portfolio? what is your argument? jean-marie: it is an interesting point. if you look at the start of our journey, we came in as an
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investor in coinshares. we started buying bitcoin in 2013 seeing how it would transform and have an immediate effect on the price. the narrative got lost in the meantime because of the speculation around crypto. we can see the stats are people holding to bitcoin. there is a can we share research they get off this week where we can see the amount of bitcoin is not moving up to five years. people are starting to realize and go back to the real principle of bitcoin, which was reserve of value. not just a trading asset. it is an interesting strategy.
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if you want to go beyond data, you can have a different strategy. ed: what was it like setting up the business here? i spoke to chris larson a couple of weeks ago. he is one of the biggest advocates for the underlying blockchain technology. he told me the fed rule government and the fed and biden administration have killed the prospect through regulation in this country. jean-marie: coinshares, how it presents in the u.s. -- we have been in the u.s. brokering deals since 2017. the capacity to do it is very available in the u.s. in terms of the right people in the right manner. if you go on this journey and except the journey and not just
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say, we do what we want, there is a clear path you can follow. caroline: can you tell us on your journey -- you are out your marketing, i'm sure. jean-marie: i am not marketing. caroline: you are attracting investors. jean-marie: of course. caroline: who are you speaking to? jean-marie: the people who are interested in this offering -- nothing we are doing is for retail. it is for qualified buyer and most investors. you can see interest going from -- we are looking for duration. it is not easy when you are a multibillion dollar hedge fund to create liquidity just for that. how do i find the right partner? caroline: great to spend time with you. jean-marie: thank you. caroline: i have a feeling you will be back. jean-marie mognetti is coinshares' ceo. we had some breaking news. we understand the ftc is poised
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to sue amazon for antitrust violations as soon as next week. this could be s&s tuesday. keep an eye on the regulatory environment. ed: this is going after the online retail part of the business. coming, we talk about the future of how ai can impact that sector potential but also drawbacks. and then we paid in joins us -- and then zoe peden joins us next.
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if you're trying to get a view of the whole organizational financial health and you're trying to do that through multiple systems, that makes it very, very cumbersome. ♪ it's not just tech, it's not just people. it's how they work together to provide that experience to the customer. as a finance organization that is what you want to do. ♪
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>> you need to have a dialogue with countries like china. they are not going to go away and there may be things we can work together with china on. but we have to be realistic and we have to have those discussions with our eyes open. what we are trying to see is if we can get a global consensus on how to make sure artificial intelligence remains a massive force for good in the world, which i believe it can be. ed: that was u.k. chancellor of the exchequer germany hunt. world leaders gathered at the general assembly in new york this week and everyone seemed to agree on one thing -- climate change is among the biggest problems facing the planet. maybe that is where ai could be a force for good. on today's vc spotlight, we are looking at climate tech investing and more with ananda ventures.
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they are investing in startups with scalable options for the planet's future. these high profile, let's talk about the world events -- somebody invests in the early stage, do you see the trickle down of benefit? zoe: i think it is good to put the topic on the world stage. the media, like yourself, are talking about it. it really helps the startups that are already working to get momentum and get people talking about certain sectors that perhaps have not received such media exposure. there has been a lot of focus on carbon and carbon accounting. but what about biodiversity? what about nature? this is being put on the radar now. i think it is important we do have these meetings at this global stage. caroline: we heard from jeremy hunt. meanwhile, the prime minister of
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the u.k. is getting heat for putting climate goals to one side. i am interested in your perspective of the politicization. zoe: i was looking at pitch book the other day. 279 deals, which is a decline. 31% decline from the previous quarter. that is a loud indicator for me. when we are raising our fund and i meet people who want to invest in ananda, i do not see hesitation. i see more money coming from different areas into climate. i think the dip in climate investing of that quarter is a
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general reflection of the dip in vc funding overall and not an indicator of where things are going. caroline: let's talk about how you stand out from the crowd. if outlook a very busy crowd but what is interesting about ananda you do not take fees unless the companies you are backing are saying what they are going to do. you are holding yourself to some transparency account. is that being copied by the industry? zoe: it is increasingly being copied. we created it in 2014 alongside the european investment fund. the carry is linked to the impacts. we need to meet at least 60% of those targets from those startups to be able to see any carry toward values. the founders really like it and our investors do too. i think it is important we have something like this in impact
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investing to start impact washing. ed: what is the ai climate play for venture capitalists like you? zoe: there is lots of different things. the biggest area is in machine learning. that is what we are seeing the last few years. going from looking at computer vision that is tracking thermal cameras with nano satellites. being able to detect and look at prevention of wildfires. and then down to being able to predict wastewater. that is a new area in climate tech. pathogens and being able to track different pathogens, like the covid virus, and being able to predict which areas might not respond to antibiotics. antibiotic resistance is massive. that is when you see the
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environment cross over into population health and regenerative ag. lots of different things going on in ocean tech. very difficult area at the moment. biodiversity, nature, as i was referring to before. wonderful new area to talk about. i think there is a lot we can do around being able to track nature using environmental dna on the ground. being able to predict what species have been removed either through infrastructure or mining or something in the water. replacing that and making it better than it was before because those little microbes -- it is not the big species you think about. it is actually the microbes in the water that leave trails of dna. we can detect all of those and they are the ones when you talk about our food and soil systems. they are essential to the
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balance we have in nature and those are the ones suffering. caroline: zoe peden, thank you for taking us through the opportunities. we are going to focus on climate impact more with hundreds of millions being put that direction. eldridge and brightstar have acquired a majority stake in ausenco. they design efficient minds, facilities, or sustainable mining. this is a billionaire getting involved. todd foley is known for basement baseball investments. coming up, we continue the conversation on sustainability. global citizens will be in the house. there is a music festival in new york. ed: it is like live aid in the social media area. caroline: how are they using social media? this is "bloomberg technology".
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leaders to defeat poverty and fight for equity. as we gear up for 2023 taking place tomorrow, let's bring in michael sheldrick, government relations officer at global citizen. we are going to put the weather to one side. [laughter] but you are fighting because of the climate, because of poverty. people used to write letters or send emails. how have used social media to bring your forced to bear? michael: thank you for having me on. if anyone is coming tomorrow, the global citizen festival continues rain, shine, hail. everyone will be there and you are right, around the world extreme weather events are impacting the most vulnerable. but the way to think about the global citizen platform is yes, people know us for our festivals, but inherently we are digital. we campaign 365 days a year. people engage with our content
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and we are always finding ways to meet people where they are at. we are on tiktok, instagram, we are finding ways to engage people who may not even have access to wi-fi in developing countries. what we are seeing is record levels of engagement. even as social media becomes more fragmented, we are actually seeing our citizens looking for a way to express their agency and take action, like calling on the u.k. government to follow through on its commitment around climate financing. caroline: rishi sunak is getting a lot of criticism for not really focusing on the climate agenda. how do you tackle him? where are your citizens going? how do you present your case that he should care? michael: we have global citizens in every constituency across the united kingdom. what we see -- and this is mirrored around the world -- two thirds around the world are saying they favor clean power, particularly solar, over fossil fuels.
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if you look at where people are at, it is a centrist message. we believe the u.k. government, especially with the prime minister's remarks the last few days, is on the wrong side of history. global citizens have been calling him out and contacting their local member of parliament. we are also calling on the labor opposition. if he is elected to not backtrack, because you need britain. britain has been a leader on climate change and through our digital platform it is a way for citizens to not just complain about these issues -- caroline: we are good at that online. michael: but we can actually do something. the data shows when you do something, that gives us hope. ed: in the last segment i was saying this is like live aid. but in the social media era we talk on the show about the health of social media platforms. knowing what stands out is authentic, legitimate. how do you feel about that? do you feel you are able to get a direct message out to the
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content you are sharing? michael: live aid, we always say we stand on the shoulders of giants. ec action as our currency -- we see action as our currency. we could make a feel million dollars or people could take action. people can take action on our platform and they accrue points. as we will see tomorrow, they can exchange those points for rewards, like tickets. people like to be rewarded for their action taking but they also like -- they like to engage throughout the year as well. caroline: you employ -- you don't employ -- but you stand on the shoulders of celebrities. how do navigate the politicized -- or the direction of tiktok. michael: a big one is jung cook.
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you can see the engagement going on. they do not care what platform. whether it is on instagram or twitter, you see record numbers of engagement in the issues. when he shares something about the issues on all of his platforms, you see people not just engaging with that content, but coming back to the platform to take action. i think for them it is not about being political. it is not about being left or right. often the sentiment is around the issues. i think what they see is they trust these influencers, they trust these artists. what they are seeing is the artists being trust voted -- trustful custodians of the message. caroline: chief policy impact and government relations officer at global citizen. it happens rain or shine. that is it for this edition of "bloomberg technology". you are about to leave. ed: i am going back to san francisco but it has been great to be in san francisco. listen to the podcast wherever
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