>> welcome back to bloomberg markets. i am matt miller. let's start with a quick check of where the markets are trading. we are off session highs but it is still risk on. the s&p 500 up .7%. we see yields continuing to move higher. i believe we hit 467. right now at 4.6138. it is the highest we have seen yields since before the great financial crisis. looking at the bloomberg dollar index, it is still at the strongest level this year at 1266.67.

crude down. it was up at one point this morning at $95 per barrel for west texas intermediate. a real rally for oil. . despite today's equity rally, september is shaping up to be the worst months of 2023 with one more trading day on the calendar. abigail doolittle joins us to talk about this. september is historically not a great month for equities and this month is not an exception. abigail: september is the worst month of the year for the s&p 500 for the last 30 years, down .8%. we are down a lot more than that and we are off of the lows because of the rally. we are down 4.3%. this makes for the worst month since december of last year. we were heading to the worst month since september.

we are down two months in a row. the first time we have seen that this year. about a year ago was when this happened. . it is not just the s&p 500. we take a look at other equity indexes, we will see a lot of red on the screen and this does not even account for the full month because of the way the graphic system works. the nasdaq 100, down 2%. the transports, down 4.4%. china tech down about 4%, as well. they are selling off. we have seen yields absolutely skyrocket. that is true for the vix and the nasdaq 100. both elevated to some degree. the spread tightening, i have -- talk to folks. the vix might go higher. the curve has flattened, suggesting it could be negative for stocks. take a look at these yields over

the last three months. the 10 year yield up nearly 1% in such a short period of time. speaking of the last three months, we are down over a quarter, 3.3%. this is the first down quarter of the year. the worst quarter in a year. this is a bit of a september to remember, maybe not in the best way. matt: abigail doolittle looking at stocks for us. . we are learning more details about the united auto worker union demands to ford, general motors and still land to's, the so-called big three. the group once a 30% pay increase, lower than the initial 40% hike they were asking for. let's talk to bloomberg's keith non-. what do we know about all of the demands? the pay raise is just one part

of this. are they still working on getting a pension restored? are they still working on the four-day workweek? keith: they are working on all of those things. the pay increase is critical because not only will it be necessary to get ratification of the contract by the existing workers but the president sees it as a way to entice nonunion jobs like tesla and the foreign automakers with u.s. plants and the battery plants being built, to have all those workers join the uaw. there was more than one million to the 1970's to about 400,000 now. matt: if they were to get the things they were asking for, how painful is this to the carmakers? at some point, some have said

the union deals push them to push the automakers to the brink of bankruptcy. and then the union made concessions that make the automakers profitable again. how much in terms of percentage of total cost does labor make up for these carmakers? how much of the price of a car does labor make up? keith: labor is less than 10% of the price of a car. the union started at 40%. the company, the highest they have gone is 20%. the difference maker could be the companies, ford in particular, are willing to bring back the cost of living adjustment. with inflation at more than 3% per year, that represents a significant raise. getting to that 30% number, the magic number of 30%, would be a combination of a general wage increase along with cola. that makes the union position

and company position not as far apart as it appears. matt: you talk about the decline in the uaw's membership numbers over decades but over the last couple years we have seen a real resurgence in union negotiations and wins, as well as public support for organized labor, as well. have you heard anything about other shops coming back on board if the uaw gets a good deal? keith: absolutely, this is labor's moment. there is a gallup poll that shows 3/4 of america supports uaw in this strike. you have seen broadly so -- you have seen labor broadly supported. if they can win a big deal. the 30% number would be felt like a deal that would be a historic raise, they will have that is a calling card as they

go to organize other nonunion automakers. matt: historic raise, ingested for inflation, they are making less money now than they were in 2008. in terms of the car supply situation, keith, we saw carmax come down. used car prices, the trajectory is down. if this strike goes on longer, you would expect fewer cars to be made and delivered and therefore the shortage of supply would push the price up. where are we on that in terms of inventory? keith: inventory coming out of august was actually pretty good because the automakers had been stockpiling. they had a 58-day supply of inventory, more than 2 million vehicles. the ideal number for inventory in the auto industry is 60 days. because this is a strike targeted at specific plants, the hit to inventory has not been

felt profoundly quite yet. the uaw is threatening to broaden the strike even further on friday. if they start taking down big plants like ford's f-series plant or stellantis' ram pickup truck plant, that starts to hurt. matt: i could talk about this all day but i will let you get back to your reporting. keith naughton coming to us from detroit, talking about the uaw negotiations with the big three. coming up, we are two days away from a government shutdown and it appears both sides of the aisle remain far apart. isaac boltansky joins us next to talk about what this could mean for the economy and markets. this is bloomberg. ♪

matt: this is bloomberg markets. i am matt miller. the federal government has not shut down yet but the blame game has already begun in washington with both democrats and republicans pointing fingers at each other, even at people within their own parties. let's discuss the latest with isaac boltansky. isaac, i am sure everyone is blaming pretty much the other side but is it this down to a handful of republicans who refuse to cooperate with the speaker? isaac: literately a handful. it might just be about five. the house republicans have a cushion of four votes and that is not enough. it is literally a handful of

rebels within the house republican caucus. i know this has been called the shutdown about nothing, matt, because it is not about immigration or spending, but to me it is about something. it is about speaker mccarthy's capacity to wrangle his caucus to get a bill through the chamber. matt: what is the hold up? what do these holdouts actually want? isaac: look, my thesis is some of these holdouts want speaker mccarthy to find a new job. they want to force a government shutdown. they want to force the pain that comes from it and they would use that as a means of forcing speaker mccarthy to give up his gavel. that is an operating framework that a lot of us subscribe to at the moment because there are not as many specifics. we could have real policy debates over the amount of funding for ukraine, the amount of funding for fema and natural

disasters and the amount of funding for border security but right now, this feels more like an attack on speaker mccarthy's leadership of his caucus than anything else. matt: who would they rather have? this mccarthy is out, who is in? isaac: it is anyone's guess. what i have been telling my clients is the mood on the hill is there will be a shutdown, it is just a question of the length. most of the folks i talked to think this will rival the 2013 shutdown which was 16 days and might be longer because you have to feel some pain. number three is i think we are going to see a real challenge to speaker mccarthy's position because i think that is the underlying issue that is at hand. matt: i know we are a nation polarized, but why is it so difficult to even consider some

bipartisan action to stave off a shutdown? isaac: look, i think this is something once again we have to look to the senate to be the adults in the room and we have seen some movement with a bill clearing one of the first hurdles with over 70 votes. even that will be held up most likely by a single senator and mean we have to run out the full clock and it will not clear the chamber until this weekend. ultimately, i think we know what this deal looks like. it will be more funding for ukraine, more border security funding and it will of course have that disaster relief funding. we know what it looks like. but just like 2018, 2019, 20 we will have to feel the pain before we see lawmakers go into action. matt: how much damage do you think this does to the economy? isaac: the one nice thing is there is a 2019 law on the books

that says all of the federal workers who do not receive payments during a shutdown do get back pay. there will be cash flow issues and it is hurting the folks who protect us, from tsa to the military, but we feel comfortable there will be back pay. how long are we shutdown and does that really impact some of these official data reports and does that complicate the fed's path forward? we are at a tenuous time and it is nice to have data from the government to tell us where we are economically. that is what scares me the most from a broader macro perspective. matt: with that said, does the market react? isaac: i have been telling clients not to worry. the things that keep me up at night, and there are many, when we talk about spending, i am concerned about the debt ceiling and that is off the table. in that 2013 shutdown, the s&p

was up two points during that period. the markets have been able to realize there will be back pay but it makes you worry like everything else about our systems of government and whether they can function. matt: we have seen not only the price of oil but the vix index steadily ticking up and that could have a lot to do with other issues. the uaw strike is also a big problem. do you think not of it is related to the potential of a government shutdown? isaac: i would put the government shutdown further down on the list. have me back in a week or 10 days if this is still going on and then it will creep its way up on the list. in terms of the impact, i want to highlight that the last shutdown ended because 10 air traffic controllers called out sick and that put stress on the system. we have to see some pain and we

know the government will act. how much pain do we actually have to see and how much inconvenience do they do the thing we all know they will do? matt: i will take you up on that, isaac, we will get you back next week and see how this is going. isaac boltansky talking to us about the seemingly inevitable government shutdown. still ahead, wind energy products are slowing down and investors are shorting clean energy stocks while they bid up oil. more on that, next. this is bloomberg. ♪ poised for production in south texas, energizing america with reliable and affordable nuclear energy fuel with an environmentally friendly extraction process. encore energy.

matt: this is bloomberg markets. i am matt miller. time for our weekly bloomberg green segment. investors are building short positions on slumping stocks.

the s&p global oil index continues to rally compared to a drop for the s&p global clean energy index. let's bring in rebecca williams, the head of offshore wind, a lobbying group for the industry at the u.n., imf, world bank, etc. it is fair to say you represent this industry an important places, rebecca. why do you think we have seen the markets push down new energy assets? rebecca: thanks, matt, for the question. the problems we are seeing now have growing pains. we are seeing large inflationary pressures and not seeing policy catching up to what is happening. we have seen commodity price increases, commodities that are

needed for wind turbines skyrocket in price. we are not seeing policy catching up to that dynamic. matt: what kind of government policy changes do you want to see? i thought the ira was, for example, a huge piece of transition. rebecca: i think the ira is a really good piece of legislation but we are seeing a lot of contracts before the ira, before the war in ukraine. inflationary pressures we are seeing. it is not just being felt in the u.s. we are seeing the trend happen across the world, particularly in europe. a changing dynamic, making sure the motivation for investors is correct and the contracts linked to commodity price indexes. the other thing around the ira is it is good at fostering

domestic supply chains for wind. we are seeing a lot of different interpretations at the state level. a more coordinated approach is necessary to really make the ira a successful policy. matt: are we building the kind of wind power capacity that you think we need? if we are not, what is holding us back? rebecca: globally, we will need to get to net zero. at the moment, we are nowhere did that. we have a big gap between the ambition and what we are building. if we look at the u.s., a target for offshore wind. at the moment we only have -- the policy needs to catch up to this changing variable we have to make sure we can make the most of these early projects.

in order to get those to the market. matt: we need to build 30 gigawatts and you say we only have 1, how soon can you get to that goal? rebecca: i think we can get to that goal in the u.s. if the right policies are put in place and this will take governments and industry working together to make sure we put the risk-reward ratio back. matt: what is the reward right now? if i wanted to go out with a pool of investors and build a wind farm off the coast of new jersey, for example, would it be profitable anytime soon? would it be possible, bureaucratically? rebecca: a problem is we are seeing policy not react to the environment we have. the price is not reflective of the true price of assets. the government policy needs to

catch up to this. we are seeing things like a lack of ability to get -- for projects. these are slowing down the pipeline. if we are going to meet those targets we need to work together to remove the barriers. matt: thank you very much for talking with us. rebecca williams from the global wind energy council talking about the progress that we need to make and what she thinks is holding us back. coming up, yields continue to rise. t. rowe price is shorting rates, betting on a 10 year at more like 5.5%. this is bloomberg. ♪

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>> welcome to "bloomberg markets ." i am amber. matt: i am matt miller. it has been the worst month of the year and the worst quarter of the year. as we near the end of september, a rebound in the equity index. the s&p 500, it had been up more than 1% this morning. off of the session highs, but still a gain. we continue to see yields rise but they are far off of their session highs.

4.6138 on the 10 year, it is the highest since the great financial crisis. the bloomberg u.s. dollar index actually coming down right now at1267, the highest level we have seen for about a year. off five points. nymex crude, this morning we saw wti hit $95 per barrel, just a couple cents over that briefly, it is now trading at $91.55. amber: i am watching a study of contrast. seeing microns selloff on the back of earnings. we also had a forecast for a loss coming in bigger than expected.

talking about exposure to artificial intelligence. micron more exposed to pcs and smartphones. we also have some big movers on the s&p that i am tracking. albemarle is moving up. the price of uranium hitting an 8.55 in your high. carmax, this is the one that missed earnings by two pennies. carmax starting to feel the pinch as consumers pullback. these cars are getting a bit of a dent. matt: i see what you did. i do not appreciate it. amber: [laughter] matt: let's take a look at yields. they are continuing to rise as the price falls. t. rowe price is now shorting 10 and 30-year treasuries.

eventually catch up with the fed 's funds rate which is now between 5.25% and 5.5%. let's talk with bloomberg's michael mckenzie. thank you so much for joining us. i had not thought about the fact in this cycle that the 10 year should at some point at least come close to the federal reserve funds rate. is that historically the case? michael: yes. we saw that in 2018. in particular we saw that in 2007. may of 2007, the 10 year got above 5.25. it took a while because the curve was inverted and had to steepen again. one of the big changes going on in the background is, are we returning to that pre-global

financial crisis world? will we see a world of 5% for tenure yields? matt: the idea is the fed is close to the end of a tightening cycle. maybe they raise one more time. 12 of the 19 federal reserve numbers who have a dot have said the same thing. is the market finally believing them? first so long, jay powell would say things like we are not going to cut rates for years and they would price in like five rate cuts by the end of next year. michael: that has been the big story for the last month and a half. growing realization that have come to ahead this week where the market is saying they are serious. going higher for longer. they do not really see a need to cut rates until they have inflation back to target.

the selloff this week was spurred -- that is always risky because oil prices in theory or attacks on consumption. that will hurt the consumer. if it keeps inflation elevated, the fed will not drop its focus on getting inflation back to a 2% target. a treasury market is also dealing with other forces. again, the real trigger for this latest selloff -- this is what probably motivated t. rowe to make that call because they were bullish -- they have made that call because supply is really picking up. since the end of july, the market has been heading higher and we have seeing the inflation it -- inflation adjustment yield. his five year yield and tenure yield -- it will drive mortgage

costs higher, that five to 10 year is a real sweet spot for the economy. in theory, that will begin to slow things down. you have a bond market at the moment, people thought 4.60 would hold. people are getting out. there is a reassessment of the risks. the risks are in time, tighter policy will see it go down but the risk is if you go up 5%. amber: the yields right now are sitting well above where they were in march, where we saw such a sharp rise. that led to the collapse, ultimately, of silicon valley bank. with rates at this level, are there growing concern that the incident, that kind of break

could be lurking around the corner because we are even higher than back then? michael: at some point something is going to break. i think the fed successfully managed to isolate the regional bank problems but again i think the problem is a lot of bond managers are now owning bonds that are deeply in the red. if rates do not come down in the next six to nine months, you will see more pressure to unwind those positions. they are on the wrong side of the call. matt: great talking to you. thank you so much for joining us. michael mackenzie talking about the rising rate environment. he said it well. we thought 4.6 would hold and it did not. we will be right back with more. this is bloomberg. ♪

amber: this is "bloomberg markets." i am amber kanwar, with matt miller. gamestop has appointed billionaire ryan code-1 as its new ceo. he will work without compensation. he had tired -- he acquired a stake in the company had has overseen a number of company shakeups. matt: very interesting story. i thought he was ceo already.

bailey is here to tell us the whole story. did he drive bed, bath & beyond into the ground and now he is running gamestop? >> he helped fuel the original meme stock craze. he made a pretty penny while many of his followers were left holding the bag yet is now the ceo of gamestop. according to a lot of people, he has been running things behind the scenes. amber: what can he do that the other two ceos were unable to accomplish? bailey: it is not clear when you look at reactions, gamestop has to come up with something different. they do not know what that is. matt: the need to figure out

something else because brick-and-mortar videogame shops are not it. bailey: when you look at this company, it is operating in what is becoming increasingly a digital-only field and they want to operate in brick-and-mortar, they have pulled out of nft and cryptocurrencies to focus on brick-and-mortar. from a fundamental strategist, there are questions and concerns about how viable that is given most people can download games to their xbox or playstation. if they buy online it is probably from an amazon or target. amber: bloomberg's bailey lipshultz, thank you for that perspective on gamestop. shifting gears, today we learned german inflation plunged to its lowest level in two years but price pressures in the region not only remain elevated but are accelerating in some countries. this is affecting all kinds of

future decisions and it is something that european budget and commissioners are thinking about. he is in canada on his first trade mission, johannes hahn joins us from ottawa. thank you for being with us. we are talking about all kinds of cross currents, rising rates. you are in charge of administering this budget for the e.u. how much has this complicated the picture for you? johannes: these are challenges we have to face. we try to react to this. when this commission came into office, the transition was one of our top priorities. the war in ukraine has given a push and we have committed ourselves. the european commission to spend at least 1/3 of the budget for the green transition in order to

make us less dependent, having a better diversification of energy sources. that has an impact on the energy prices. matt: do you expect the budget items for the green transition to continue to climb? we had the ira and then you come back with subsidies in china and subsidizing their green industry. will this just ratchet up costs? johannes: first, we are happy if other big players in the world are equally committed to fighting climate change and investing into it. it is good that the u.s. is following us. there are some elements in the inflation reduction act that are not really find because the elements of protection are

counterproductive for free trade agreements and exchange of goods and services. i am confident we will find a solution that is equally good for europe and the u.s. and other parts of the world. amber: i guess this is happening against this backdrop were economies are struggling, growth is slowing and the cost of living is growing up. if this is a company, this is the time they pull back on investments. johannes: for this, we have created already four years ago what we call next-generation, a package for 800 billion euro to stimulate the economy and invest in competitiveness, modernization and member states

have already started, two years ago, to address this issue, to invest. again, investments should be for the green transition. here in canada, to promote the issuance of bonds, green bonds. i am very happy to see a huge interest of institutional investors here in canada on this opportunity. also to diversify the portfolio. matt: commissioner -- amber: sorry, matt. i want to jumping on the point you are seeing the canadian market that has huge connection to the oil and gas sector. there has been lamenting that -- are you finding good domestic canadian support for these green bonds?

johannes: they are interested and they are interested in how to report on green investments because it is important to be credible for the capital market, to be reliable, to demonstrate the money is indeed used for green investments. the european commission will report by the end of this year for the first time about the impact of the green bonds we have so far issued. we are talking about 44 billion euro. i understand here in canada, people are very interested on the project but to issue green bonds on their own. matt: commissioner, i wonder about european debt. shouldn't you issue common debt to finance common priorities? you have done it in emergency

situations. are we headed in that direction for more common debt issuance in europe? johannes: what we have created was a quick reaction to the pandemic in 2020. it is now constructed as a one-off measure. it lasts until the end of 2058. for the time being, we will issue around 120 billion to 150 billion euros per year. we are focusing on the implementation of our citizens -- the debate about the future. how we raise money, address economic challenges. the focus must be on

implementation. matt: appreciate your time, commissioner. thank you so much for joining us. johannes hahn, european budget commissioner talking to us about green bonds and financing the green transition. coming up, how the dallas cowboys built the most valuable sports franchise in the national football league. we spoke with charlotte jones. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ explore endless design possibilities.

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matt: this is "bloomberg markets ." i am matt miller with amber kanwar. the dallas cowboys have not won a super bowl in almost 30 years but still stand as the world's most valuable sports franchise. how did that happen? daughter of owner jerry jones,

charlotte, joined our power players program. charlotte: i do not know that we ever thought that we would be here today in this moment in terms of both value and just influence in culture for what our sport and our game and our team is all about. i wish i could back up and tell you we have this perfect strategy that we executed to get to this point and here we are and we are delivering on all those things but it did not work that way. honestly, as we project toward the future, i cannot say the direction of how we get to the next level, where that will actually take us. i certainly think there are so many interesting conversations right now for everyone to consider, especially when you talk about media rights, sponsorships, gambling, all these different avenues -- what does that mean for our game?

the most important thing for us to take a step back and recognize is our game is the most influential product on television, streaming, digital, however you choose to see it. it carries the most weight right now and that is an impressive journey for again. >> we are sitting in the star, it is a practice facility and so much more. at&t stadium, absolutely state-of-the-art when it was built. is this what teens need to do now to stay competitive? is that the future? charlotte: as we began to build the star, it was about our training facility but became about much more than that. for us, having a family that has a history with an appetite for risk, it is a huge financial investment to do something like the star with hopefully a strategy that you are going to

have the return on your investment for you to be taking that risk. but the reality is there is no guarantee. do other owners of other sports teams in general have that same appetite for risk? because the financial return is not guaranteed. for us in this space, it was about building the facility that would be the best training facility for our players, and then it became about strategic partnerships that would help fund the building of the facility. >> is that the key to financial success? teaming up in the local economy? charlotte: for us, it is. the first starter is, do you have a great relationship with the city in which you live? that has been the key for our success in arlington for at&t stadium, and then here in frisco. you have to have a city that

really understood economic generation. for us here with the star, we have created a lot of economic value for the city of frisco that at&t stand him has created an enormous amount of economic value for all the events beyond our again that have come to arlington. that has really been our goal. we could not show up and promise something if we truly did not think we could be an economic engine. matt: that was charlotte jones, daughter of jerry jones. you can watch power players each wednesday at 10:00 new york time on bloomberg television or stream this premiere episode across bloomberg platform spirit. amber: canadian snow a lot about very valuable team that often loses and that is what the maple leaves are too many of us. that does it for both of us. i am amber kanwar, for matt

miller, this is bloomberg. ♪ this is for you. ♪ - i ended up spending less money my entire time at snhu than i did in just one year at my other university. - [juan] my time at snhu has given me more confidence. now i can go for that promotion. - if you're ready to go back to school... you can do it. southern new hampshire university has changed my life. and it can change yours too. ♪ - [announcer] visit snhu.edu. nice footwork. man, you're lucky, watching live sports never used to be this easy. now you can stream all your games like it's nothing.

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romaine:romaine: a focus on the consumer, and focus on the fed, and a focused still on washington. >> kicking off the closing bell in the u.s., actually looking at a second day of gains on the s&p 500. the benchmark currently up half a percent. big tech leading the way. the nasdaq 100 up about .8%. things are cooling down a little bit in the bond market at least for now. 10 year yield only up about two basis points but we are looking at a high level. 4.62%. near 15 year highs. i want to take a l