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>> good morning and welcome to daybreak australia. i'm paul allen and we are down to asia's nature market oh. asian stocks pushed for a week open with trade risks overshadowing the deal to avert the u.s. shut down. >> data showed factory activity picking up for the first time since march. a private survey indicates slowing expansion. >> home prices showing strength in september driven by soaring demand read the rba expected to hold rates again on tuesday. and some breaking news out of the gates in australia. bank pmi's for september a a slight pickup, 48.7 is the reading from the 48.2 we saw in august we are still in negative

territory but a strange trading day including australia. there is a pu holiday in australia. dsx will trade as normal however we might see less volume tha usual. elsewhere we've got the dollar below $.65. we are anticipating a weaker opg when we get going in australia. futures are down by half of 1% at the moment read you've got new zealand trading, coming down to election day, 12 days away and the yen is at 149.49, not a great deal of movement. you might anticipate to see a bit of intervention from the ministry of finance.

we've got me key futures in negative territory and today is the day we get business survey results. markets closed for the golden week holiday and that includes china, south korea and hong kong. no trade today. shery: we are headed towards the first trading day of the quarter in the u.s. after the s of the 500 saw the worst quarter in about one year or so. we're talking about the essence the 500, gaining ground in the previous session or losing ground, outperforming on friday session. but of course this coming at a time when treasury yields were down despite the fact that we are lingering around 16 year highs for the 10 year yield and the 30 yield around 2010 highs. you have to put the moves into context. the bottom line is we continue to see risks emerging in the broader markets. we are talking about more big

down days, fewer rebounds for u.s. equities. we continue to watch the space closely as treasury yields are around multiyear highs with a 460 level which surpassed last week. the oil price continues to gain ground and we are talking about the best quarter since march of 2022 and this is as we are expecting russian exports of these to dwindle as we've seen the band being implemented and it's all about supplies. >> we did at least take one risk factor off the table over the weekend, the deal to avert a shutdown will keep the government running until the 17th, but it might come at a heavy political cost. speaker kevin mccarthy with more on this.

we bring in kailey leinz. tell us about how this deal happened and the questions that that leaves? >> we barely averted of shutdown before saturday in the u.s., but they were able to fund the government until november 17, when we might have this fight all over again. what this means is the status quo will stay in terms of spending cuts that conservatives were looking for, what it included was millions of dollars in disaster relief given natural disasters in the u.s. from wildfires in maui. it did not include support for additional funding. that had been a sticking point among republicans. hardline members in the house have not posted any measure that would defend ukraine.

senator rand paul did not want to see it ukraine funding in the package that makes it difficult for the biden administration which has requested more from congress. president biden while he said the deal was good for the u.s. and avoids a shutdown, the furloughing of hundreds of thousands of workers, he speaking speaker mccarthy to pass ukraine funding. it's unclear when that might happen. mccarthy's future is in question considering conservatives did not get the things that they were looking for. spending cuts have not been included and border measures were not included. >> we're seeing moves from hardline republicans to remove him from the speakership. how big of a risk is this? >> this has been threatened for a long time, specifically from matt gaetz of florida. he had said repeatedly he would file a motion to make him the

speaker. any individual can do this under the agreement that mccarthy agreed to with conservative members in order to become speaker. he will do this within the next week. it would require a majority in the house of representatives and it is unclear right now if mccarthy would survive the vote read in theory you would need all democrats or some democrats's to join with republicans like gaetz and others who want to see mccarthy ousted. in hakeem jeffries has not indicated whether democrats may support him. the other members i spoke to did suggest that mccarthy work with democrats to keep the government open which happened read they could see democrats voting present in a motion to locate -- vacate. jim, a democrat told me the democrats would choose chaos -- would not choose chaos.

instead they would help them stay in a job. shery: kailey leinz in washington with the latest on a government shutdown averted in the u.s.. let's turn to china because we are watching the economy and mixed signals on the outlook from businesses. it's a sign that confidence in post-pandemic recovery is fragile. annabel joins us in hong kong with analysis of the pmi survey. let's get to the good news, the official manufacturing print finally above the 50 threshold. >> for the first time since march, the brightest spot out of these numbers that we had over the weekend. the official and private one is out saturday and sunday but as you said the gauge is really the one to watch because that is something that we haven't seen since march of this year. 50.2 was a notch better than

what economists have been expecting. nonmanufacturing pmi another bright spot as well, climbing to 51.7. it had been 51 in august. you can see the consensus forecast of 51.6, accelerating as the boost from summer travel is gone. another positive indicator coming through. not all good news because it was divergent and mixed signals coming out of this. one of the things in the official gauge was pmi for small firms extending a streak in contraction. it just tells us the recovery is fragile for a lot of china and a reminder that if we do not get more policy support from officials and the recovery, it could start to stumble. paul: out of the private surveys

, [no audio] [no audio] >> manufacturing pmi coming at 50.2 in the prior reading at 59.7. prior consensus had been for 51.2. a pullback was driven by a swing in employment. and that really took us into contraction from what had been expansionary territory. out of the surveys, who exactly is being surveyed?

the prime one focuses more on private businesses and exporters. the official one is more tilted to the sme's but one of the key takeaways is smalla medium-size businesses are the ones that do remain under pressure in china >> looming over everything, any signals from the property market? annabelle: this is another positive indicator over the weekend because we had encouraging signs coming through, preliminary data from september. it showed us the prices continue to decline but declines are starting to moderate, so the value of new home sales, this looks at the 100 biggest real estate companies in china, down 30% from one year earlier. that narrows the decline that had been at 33.9% in august read this is data coming through from the china real estate

information corp.. authorities during this time have continued to put out new policy measures to try to spark buying in real estate. reducing down payments for mortgages and encouraging banks to lend more. sales rose during 18% or thereabouts on the month. and this is the golden week holiday. chinese markets are shut during these days. but a key test for the real estate market with china because this is when we expect a lot of buyers to be active in the market. paul: ford's ceo blasts the united auto workers union with strikes into their third week. we will have an update on the rising tensions. we will hear why claro advisors think the jury is out on the soft landing scenario a investors should prove therefore this is bloomberg.

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♪ shery: you're watching daybreak australia. let's takloo at the week ahead, it's a b ek for central bank decisions. tuesday, michelle bullock will make her first monetary policy call as the new governor of the rba read economists are divided on wheth bank will raise key tes again this year. on wednesday thesaid decision comes after a revised data showed the economy pulling out of a recess economists expthe bank cut rates to keep up with a plunge in inflation that will bring borrowingspward. and the are b.i. in india is expected to main ahawkish hold with inf ave the target ceiling.

h the u.s. government avoiding a shutdown we will get jobs data on today but a slower pace of hiring. manufacngmi figuresases, s&p throughout asia, infn data and industrial production numbers from south korea and the seat the i and from the philip ames read that is your week ahead. paul: a deal to avert a shutdown may steal nerves but the chances of a soft lining look like the main gain. let's get market outlook with the managing principal and founder at claro advisors. i want to start with the shutdown being averted if we can. do you anticipate any relief when trading resumes? >> nice to see you again. there is an opportunity for a rally here, for investors to breathe a sigh of relief. it will be short-lived and the

economic reality of the data this week will probably give investors more pause in asset allocation and concerns. it is important for people to maintain a watch on what they have in the portfolios. we've got good news coming out, we will be watching employment data. the fed needs the economy to be adding fewer amount of jobs and what is currently being added to the market for their data. we will be watching those things. paul: t'sa chance we will be back in shutdown territory but you mentioned data and we heard from the fed saying there is a possibility the fed might be done. where you stand in terms of the outlook and what the fed does next? >> is a possibility but it's also a possibility would be cutting rates right now because

that's what economists had predicted six or eight months ago and were not cutting rates off. the question is how many raises will we get? at least one or two, i know that's not a popular opinion but inflation just continues to be more sticky tha nvestors and economists you leave and i think the fed certainly does ot want to make the same mistake from the 1970's with raising rates, cutting rates and it was ike a vicious cycle. chair powell has been determined to get rid of inflation and he's going to do that at all costs. but to give him a lot of credit it does appear like a soft landing. i think that will be very difficult to do but so far, so good for the fed. shery: given where the fed seems to be headed we've seen multi-year highs, given that

cash seems to be earning more than equities with a six month treasury bill yielding more than the s&p 500 earnings. so do we have any potential for upside when it comes to equities at this point? >> from a behavioral standpoint there's two numbers that make a lot of difference. and one is the consumer world. five and 100 are the two numbers. when investors can make 5% and a risk-free treasury, you have to make a very complng case to make oth iestments. we jst have not had that opportunity in 10 or 15 yea. the second number is 100. when consumers start to see the price of gas go up in the price of oil is $100 or more, behavior starts to change. people fly less, drive less, consume less. so the fed will welcome those activities because of diminished demand, one of the goals.

if it is predicated on oil and energy costs going up, that is going into the pce numbers, which they are trying to keep down as well. it's a very difficult battle that they have. they are doing a good job so far. i just think inevitably, they will over tighten and that will put us into a recession. we probably should be coming up to a recession at some point soon. the two year and the 10 year they invert, you get a recession in 18 months and it's probably been 14 or 15 months so it should not be a big surprise to see a recession. it does not have to be devastating. just the cycle. shery: do we stay on the sidelines until we get there and bottom fish or invest now until we get there? ? >> we would not advocate for timing the market. if we have new cash i would be interested in keeping that dry powder and waiting for better

opportunities. most of the market is pretty expensive but if you are an existing investor continuing with asset allocation you might be on the lower end of equity and then when things kind of selloff, you increase that. but i think you just have to know exactly what you own in the portfolio, make sure you know where the risk is being taken. but for now, cash is a nice option for people unwilling to take risks. paul: yes, and what is your cash allocation at the moment? >> we are not market timing, we are trying to be very conscious of investors long-term goals and objectives. we run a balanced portfolio for the most part and i guess the tenure getting to over four and a half percent as mentioned for the first time in 16 years is significant.

what took it so long? the two-year has been forecasting hikes for quite some time and we feel like rates will stay higher for longer. if you are an investor putting a significant amount in fixed income, you will get a nice return, so that will be a benefit to investors and they should not run away from that. shery: higher for longer only applies to advanced economies when looking at emerging markets we are seeing economies that have started to cut rates. how do you play this divergence? >> we run the u.s. domestic portfolios and have allocations to that which is cheaper than u.s. counterparts, so we like being around international markets from that and point. but the advantage of when the u.s. faces the rest of the world, that is been true for so long. 15 plus years, international markets have outperformed the u.s..

it's just been so long i think people have forgotten the value of the rest of the world and orchids. so again that goes back to consumer behavior. they will have to see strong returns before they allocate capital. shery: brian ballenger, great to have you with us. you can get a roundup of these stories we have been talking about. go to daybreak. you can customize your settings so you only get the news on the industries in the assets that you care about read this is bloomberg. ♪

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♪ paul: you are watching

daybreak australia. some corporate stories, a sale with credit suisse in a ship financing scandal. the financing closes a case which saw credit suisse financing the construction of a coastal patrol force and tuna fleet. the nation alleged the bank ignored the red flags. apple says new iphones getting too hot due to software, fixes or coming soon. the latest software works to get set up and restore users data. they deny that the issue is related to new hardware. tesla's record car delivery streak could end. analysts predict 456,000 which is lower than the previous

466,000. that would mark the first quarter on quarter decline since early 2022. analysts have lowered expectations due to teslas planned downtime and elevated inflation. shery: the bloomberg dollar index sees the best quarter in about a year. were talking about almost 3% of games since the end of june. on the other site of trade, significant weakness by asia currencies. the japanese yelling for the second session, c in on a 150 level at a time when we have seen the boj not being tolerant about higher yields, especially in the superlong debt surging to we saw policyms announcing the unscheduled bond purchasing eration, so we will continue to watch e moves of japanese yen afec broader policymaking in the cry.

the aussie and kiwi holding steady. monthly demand for the currencies but of course a big thing we aatching in australia is the rba rate decision at a time when we do not have daily fixing for the chinese yuan given that it is golden week. paul: yes, a lot of markets around the asian-pacific closed. china, south korea, hong kong among them but we will have trading in australia read a strange day. wales has a public holiday, victoria does not. a.s. xv futures a weaker by half of 1%. new zealand has been trading for one hour and a half now, bloomberg weakness, nikkei futures are in pos loving this pay bump in our allowance. wonder where mom and dad got the extra money? maybe they won the lottery? maybe they inherited a fortune? maybe buried treasure? maybe it fell off a truck? maybe they switched to xfinity mobile on the most reliable 5g network. for a limited time, buy one line of unlimited,

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willingness to bargain, ford and gm have refused to make meaningful progress. that is why at noon today we will expand our strike to these two companies. to be clear, negotiations have not broken down. we are talking with all three companies and the contributions our members have made. shery: let's bring in su keenan. , where is this going? su keenan: from ford and gm, both are out with tough worth and mother target with strike action.

the union struck against additional plants for both companies -- they believe we could reach a compromise and the uaw is holding them hostage. they're saying they're trying to work on issues outside the actual contract talks. you're looking at supply chain ffect. a lot of concern that as the strike continues, it is alrdy hurting what has been a fragile supply chain yet to recover fully from the impact of the pandemic. you have gm's ceo out wit similar tough words accusing uaw leadership of dragging out the strike longer as part of a plan to further their own agendas. gm went on to say the aw

dent wants to make history for himself but is worried it might be at the detriment of union makers. each of the companies are negotian separately and the parent many of jeepnd chrysler was spared strike action because of a last-minue breakthrough. you looking at how stocks fared on friday, all taking a hits the strike expanded cause of the announcement. it is important to know that while stellantis was offered a 20% raise along with other automakers, they made concessions on key issues on friday. there saying that gaps still remain and so it looks like all three automakers have differences and there is not a clear resolution to the strike anytime soon. ford is waiting on a deal with

the uaw as well as clarification about an inflation act before it moves forward with a plan to build batteries using licensing from ca tl for that. there's been a a lot of criticism from the union that they are halting production on a plant that does not even exist. a lot of tension on both sides. shery: su keenan with the challenges of the u.s. economy and student debt the payments starting thisoth and the jump in oil prices is keeping the bed narrative highe for longer. unsurprising that although we are seeing the first reaction in futures in the green that is really fading away in the first hour of trading. that is keeping the fed

narative as higher for longer. perhaps it is not surprising that although we are seeing the first reaction e u.s. averting the sub them, that is fading away. the government will run into challenges around november 17. although we have breathing room, how long that will continue is the key question. let's check in with the key economist of the board. >> inflation is top of mind even though core prices are low, we are seeing prices rise. we ask consumers they complain

about higher inflation for food and energy. were looking at jobs and the jobs market is cooling. there are fewer job openings and fewer people. that's good news for the fed but not the consumer. >> anytime we question the health of the u.s. consumer, people .2 the savings accumulated. how much buffer do we have at this point? >> very little. excess savings was two point $2 trillion after inflation. now it is in the billions. we think consumers are going to run out of that and some have read you see in credit card balances rise, debt has exceeded a trillion dollars and delinquencies are up, especially those over 90 days. paul: how is the credit worthiness of the u.s. consumer market? unthinking in terms of credit

card delinquencies, student loan repayments also. >> definitely credit card delinquencies are back before the pandemic. we are not going to receive funds, they are skyrocketing for small and medium-size things read when we look at student loans, 44 million people are affected by student loans and many are under 45. that is peaks spending, when people have children, by loans and so all of that will be disrupted if they have to pay back their student loans. paul: we have a phrase, higher for longer. i'm wondering what that means for you and rates? >> the fed has one more interest rate hike and we have a few more cuts, three or four but that would leave the fed funds rate

at a high level compared to what we are used to. certainly we think that there is going to be upward pressure on inflation that will cause the fed to keep interest rates higher than we are used to in order to keep the inflation rate at 2%. >> we are seeing strikes given the tight labor market but if we have a chilling effect from a potential recession, the appetite for a walk out will fall. so where are you expecting labor strikes to go from here? >> i think it depends. we have to remember, the u.s. is undergoing labor shortages. and the labor shortage is because millions are retiring so that is acute in those jobs that we have to show for work. the auto sector, health-care,

construction, manufacturing. we could still see high demand from wages because you're losing workers community the ones you have. can attract workers. >> how concerned are you on student loan payments? the savings seems to be lending -- dwindling. will this hurt consumer demand? >> we think so. consumers are worried about inflation, they're worried about jobs and future income and personal finances. we think consumer spending will slow and we will experience consumer spending and pullback of investment by businesses.

>> we averted a shutdown of the government over the weekend. but they will be back in 45 days. it becomes protracted, we are in the same sort of territory as the debt ceiling debate. is this therditworthiness of the u.s., how it is viewed from the outside. >> it certainly could. we saw that back during the debt ceiling issue in the springtime, we had rating ageci eyeing the u.s. and investors were looking at the u.s.. the u.s. has built up a lot of sovereign debt and we think about what is driving debt, a lot is interest. as we saw already interest rates will be higher for longer. more interest payments pile up especially due to expenditures on health care and provisions for our elders. with that, wink markets are

going to s punishing the u.s. for having outsized debt. david peterson, chief economist, thank you for joining us. you can get more on the state of the u.s. economy in today's big take. they argue the recession is more likely than soft landing. and higher rates and oil prices will be discussed on the bloomberg terminal and bloomberg.com. this is bloomberg. ♪ if you're trying to get a view of the whole organizational financial health

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paul: us billion -- australian house prices stayed steady. let's bring in bloomberg reporter amy. what is driving these prices? >> another simple equation of supply, business, demand. there is a really hot rental market, less than 1% but not a lot of property for sale throughout the month. prices were around 1%. adelaide drew the most gains, 1.7%. those figures were softer than august. but still we are seeing strong

price growth which is continuing to add concerns around the economy and the pressures of inflation as well. shery: when can we expect prices to cool? >> we don't know. some predictions that prices have risen. consulting firms are looking at price rises and they're trying to get into the market. not looking good for investors. they may be more likely to spend which could fuel inflation further. inflation in australia is well above the targeted to the 3% range.

there are concerns as migration surges that there is no end in sight. prices will remain strong. the tight rental market and people trying to break in to buy iron properties, the other factor is with the economy, and a lot of people are on variable mortgages and shifting from this -- fixed to variable and that will put a lot of pressure on budgets as well. paul: we do have a reserve bank of australia decision. and it is michelle bullard's first charge as governor, what are we expecting? >> michelle is the governor of the central bank. interest rates will stay paused that 4.1%, that is widely tipped

to happen tomorrow. we are in a data driven environment as the governor looks at the pieces and information to put together the muzzle of what to do going forward. we got weaker retail sales, there's been some data coming through on job vacancies as well. so these are coloring the picture as she presides over the policy meeting as governor tomorrow. shery: amy bainbridge there and we have more economic stories we're tracking at this moment macau's casino gaining revenue growth slowly in september but the sector is expected to get a boost from the golden week holiday. official data revealed that revenue grew around 404% from one year earlier and that is in line with the median estimate of a 400% increase.

68% of the pre-covid levels in 2019 read thailand's tourism sector is expected to get a billion-dollar boost from chinese taurus. after waving be says for mainland visitors for five months, the nation says it expects to attract nearly 3 million rivals in that time. chinese taurus with the large group of visitors to thailand before the pandemic. indonesia has opened its first high-speed rail line from jakarta to the city of i do in java. the project is the only one in southeast asia. it is part of china's road initiative. speaking to bloomberg, the president defended the rail line which is seeing cost overruns and operational losses. >> high-speed trains should not

become committed by profit and loss. do not count profit, which should be cut through it is the benefit. the country loses more than 100 trillion, therefore mass transportation must be built and provide services to the community. if we calculate loss per year of 100 trillion in compare with high-speed trains, these items provided net benefits for the people. shery: you can watch more of the exclusive interview on the series premiere of latitude coming up on october 26. paul: blackrock ceo larry fink expects u.s. 10 year yields to top 5%. he spoke to bloomberg and supply chain shifts are creating inflation.

>> i don't know what is the new normal, i think every day is normal. the markets move, respond, they respond to political issues and uncertain. but i would clearly say we are in a time with these mega cycles, so many transitions. whether it is a transition to inflation, a geopolitical transition, where does that go? the fragmentation of supply chains is just beginning. we have policies in many democracies that have moved from policies that were embedded for more deflation. policy more embedded inflation. >> jamie dimon said rates could go to 7% and were not ready for it. is he right?

i want to know your opinion. >> we will have 10 year rates at 5% or higher because of embedded inflation. structural inflation is unlike anything. and i think business leaders and politicians are not providing the foundation to explain this. we haven't seen inflation like this in over 30 years. i was a young bond trader during the late 70's where we had hyperinflation. i don't think we will have anything close to this inflation of the 70's, but we have deeper structural inflation and we are underestimating the change in geopolitics. it is so structurally inflationary. when i was in the those this year, i heard the phrase

national security uttered everywhere. i had never heard those phrases often before that, so national security for chips or food or energy, obviously energy and all of these issues. the question is at what cost? nobody answers the question at what costs. >> can you do a better job of explaining what that would look like? >> we have to organize if we are going to focus on the whole idea about restricting immigration. it's a big topic in the united states. in the united states, we are close to 3 million eagle immigrants. we changed immigration policy. there's so many job needs and in the united states we've had close to chilean dollars of fiscal stimulus just beginning its curve. these were huge job creators and

at the same time, we have restricted immigration and as a result, we've seen wage pressure. at what cost? in the united states we have a very protracted strike between autoworkers and companies. the union is asking for a 40% increase. at what cost? paul: that was blackrock chair and ceo larry fink speaking to bloomberg's david in berlin. tune into bloomberg radio to hear more from the big newsmakers and get analysis from the daybreak team. broadcasting live from our studio. listen by the act, radio plus or bloombergradio.com. plenty more to come, stay with us. ♪

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shery: tmperatures are starting toool after a record-breaking summer and when it's gtng colder and new york what makes it bearable is hot chocolate. we really have it everywhere, whether it is my home or the pantre have hot chocolate to warm us up in colder days. it seems there might be getting

pricier and pricier. you're taking a look at expensive cocoa, prices near a four decade high. they have already risen 47% in the past year because of weather, disease. the ivory coast and ghana make up two thirds of the world's supply and we have to worry about el niño, so are looking forward to the west african harvest that is starting and the output will be key in determining if we are going to get more and more epsive chocolate. >> a few things cannot be improved by coffee and you can even things ut if you're willing to try because we have weaker coffee prices for similar reasons we talked about the climate. brazil is having a lotof rain in key coffee producing areas, so we could be in with more

supply coming. at the same time we have a much weaker brazilian currency. we've got prices the lowest since january. so the price of the daily fix is coming down if you like chocolate. shery: you make me feel slightly better going intohe next week given that she coffee is always great. we will follow market pricing because we may see optimism given that the u.s. has averted a government shutdown. we are going to have to assess until november7. were seeing upside in the s&p 500, the first losing quarter in a year.

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